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Speaker 1: Qatar Airways will buy twenty five percent of Virgin, shaking

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Speaker 1: up competition in international routes. The federal government is working

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Speaker 1: to evacuate Australians in Lebanon as the conflict in the

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Speaker 1: region escalates, and the latest radio ratings suggests a big

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Speaker 1: shakeup in the audio world. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the second of October twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, Qatar Airways will buy twenty

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Speaker 1: five percent of Virgin Australia from its private equity owner,

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Speaker 1: Bain Capital.

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Speaker 2: As part of the deal, Virgin will resume flying long

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Speaker 2: haul international routes to Europe using Qatar's planes. It means

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Speaker 2: passengers get more competition in the long haul market and

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Speaker 2: there's no need for government approval for additional flights. The

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Speaker 2: deal is subject to the Foreign Investment Review Board and

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Speaker 2: helps Bain start offloading its ownership of Virgin, which it

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Speaker 2: took control of back in twenty twenty in the middle

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Speaker 2: of the COVID pandemic. It will also be subject to

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Speaker 2: the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission approval now. Both Labour's

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Speaker 2: Bill Shorten and Opposition leader Peter Dunn welcomed the announcement.

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Speaker 2: Plenty of bits and pieces in this deal. Remember last

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Speaker 2: year the Federal government blocked Katar from flying more services

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Speaker 2: into Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. This somewhat circumvenced that

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Speaker 2: problem for Qatar. Chief Executive Officer of Virgin Jane Hurdlicker

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Speaker 2: said the investment is the missing piece in Virgin's long

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Speaker 2: term strategy and the deal brings scale to the carrier,

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Speaker 2: allowing it to better compete with Quantas Virgin frequent fliers

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Speaker 2: will also benefit.

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Speaker 1: I'll get to what it means for passengers in a

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Speaker 1: sec Sean. But what does this mean? They've been talk

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Speaker 1: for a long time about the potential for an IPO

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Speaker 1: that Virgin might appear back on the ASX sometime in

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Speaker 1: the near future. Does this make this less likely?

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Speaker 2: Not necessarily, Bain wants to get out. In some ways,

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Speaker 2: it makes it more likely because when you have someone

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Speaker 2: like Katar on your share registry, the guitar being a

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Speaker 2: major player, other airlines suddenly get interested. Other investors get

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Speaker 2: a bit more interested, so in fact it may actually

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Speaker 2: help an IPO, although others would argue where you've got

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Speaker 2: a cornerstone investor there, so others won't get involved, so

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Speaker 2: could go either way.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So then looking at it from the passenger perspective, really,

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Speaker 1: what you've been saying is that the deal should be

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Speaker 1: good news for passengers wanting long haul flights.

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Speaker 2: Right, yes, I think so. I mean, since it's reinvention,

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Speaker 2: Virgin has been a cautious competitor, and apart from flights

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Speaker 2: to whether they go, they go Bali, Thailand, Fiji, I

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Speaker 2: don't really think there's many more international routes that Virgin does.

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Speaker 2: The domestic end of the market, following the collapse of

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Speaker 2: bondser and administration of Regional Express, now has a very

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Speaker 2: dominant Quantus jet Star about sixty two percent of the market.

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Speaker 2: Virgin's got about half that level. This deal really is

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Speaker 2: about international roots, and judging by the four percent drop

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Speaker 2: in Quantas's share price, analysts believe it will put more

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Speaker 2: competition into the market that is good for passengers. There's

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Speaker 2: more to it. The Virgin get some really serious aviation

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Speaker 2: clout with Qatar as a shareholder. That could flow through

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Speaker 2: to fuel prices. It could flow through to cheaper aircraft maintenance.

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Speaker 2: Your point before is a good or bad for an IPO? Well,

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Speaker 2: it could actually attract other investors because Qatar really is

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Speaker 2: a serious player, and we know Bain won't want to

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Speaker 2: say a shareholder for too much longer. Now Katar is

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Speaker 2: also a shareholder and a bunch of other airways, so

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Speaker 2: British Airways owner, it's got about ten percent of Cafe Pacific,

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Speaker 2: it's got an investment in South America's Latam Airlines. Me thinks, Michael,

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Speaker 2: bigger things through a foot and down the way. This

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Speaker 2: could prove quite a boom for local international travelers.

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Speaker 1: To local markets. How did things go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: There's in PASX two hundred closed down a zero point

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Speaker 2: seven percent to two hundred and nine points. The big mine,

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Speaker 2: the three big miners, and the four big banks were

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Speaker 2: all lower, and when that happens, it's almost inevitable that

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Speaker 2: the boss ends up in negative territory. The miners fell

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Speaker 2: back after all the excitement of the previous week, following

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Speaker 2: a bunch of stimulus announcements. In China, BHP finished down

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Speaker 2: on league three percent yesterday, while Fortesku middles Group was

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Speaker 2: off three and a half percent and BHP had jumped

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent in the previous five sessions, so the pullback

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Speaker 2: yesterday not unexpected. Rio Tinto fell two point six percent,

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Speaker 2: while both Commonwealth Bank and Westpac roff at least two

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Speaker 2: and a half percent. The worst performer on the day

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Speaker 2: was the Star Entertainment Group, which fell nearly eight percent

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Speaker 2: after it released its twenty twenty four financial report, which

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Speaker 2: included qualified support from its auditor based on expenses related

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Speaker 2: to the new Queenswarf casino precinct in Brisbane.

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Speaker 1: Now you mentioned the banks Sean and after the show

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Speaker 1: you have an interview coming up, very topical and very

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Speaker 1: timely interview with Nathan Zaya, banking analyst from Morning Star.

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Speaker 2: We do, given how many people have shares in banks,

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Speaker 2: we thought it was worth talking to Nathan about the

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Speaker 2: prospects for banks in particularly in terms of share prices,

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Speaker 2: but also what they're going to do around interest rates

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Speaker 2: and competition in the mortgage market and deposit rates and

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Speaker 2: that type of thing. No one better than Nathan to

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Speaker 2: chattel about these things, so we have a great talk

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Speaker 2: to him about it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, to a good one. It is coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show What's Happening in International Markets?

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Speaker 2: Yesterday morning, Federal Reserve chaired Your Own Powell spoke, saying

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Speaker 2: the Central Bank will lower interest rates over time. He

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Speaker 2: views the US economy as strong overall, with labor market

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Speaker 2: conditions being solid and policymakers having greater confidence that inflation

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Speaker 2: is on a sustainable path towards two percent. That helped

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Speaker 2: the share market close high yesterday morning meeting. The broad

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Speaker 2: based SMP five hundred and tech heavy Nasdaq both finished

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Speaker 2: the September quarter higher. That's four consecutive quarters of higher returns.

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Speaker 2: Bran Cruz trading around seventy two US dollars a Barrel'm

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Speaker 2: probably a bit surprising it's not higher than that, given

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Speaker 2: what's going on in the Middle East. Gold is trading

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Speaker 2: around twenty six forty US dollars announced, and the Aussie

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Speaker 2: dollar is worth sixty nine point three US.

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Speaker 1: Sense Sean, today is when day, probably stating the obvious

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Speaker 1: there to you. But Wednesday obviously means something significant in

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Speaker 1: the fear and greed universe, and that is that it

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Speaker 1: is newsletter day.

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Speaker 2: It is newsletter day, and I've got a bit to

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Speaker 2: say good, a bit to say about the airlines. I

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Speaker 2: got a bit to say about the economy's I quite

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Speaker 2: enjoyed writing today's newsletter.

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Speaker 1: That is great because we've had a fantastic response to

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Speaker 1: the newsletter since we launched it not so long ago.

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Speaker 1: I did a little video Sean promoting the newsletter and

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Speaker 1: I posted it on LinkedIn. It's on Fear and Greed's

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Speaker 1: LinkedIn did it last last night? And it is a

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Speaker 1: big trend towards walk and talk videos. You know they

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Speaker 1: you know, where you hold the phone up and you

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Speaker 1: talk as you're going. So I set myself the stupidest

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Speaker 1: challenge in the world, and I tried to do it

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Speaker 1: going down a set of stairs at my local train station.

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Speaker 2: How'd you go?

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Speaker 1: I look. I knew I was uncoordinated before I did it,

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Speaker 1: so really it was an oh and s and nightmare

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Speaker 1: the fact that I was out there doing this on

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Speaker 1: assignment for Fear and Greed. So anyway, long story, short

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Speaker 1: newsletter out today. Head along to Fearangreed dot com doda

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Speaker 1: you and sign up for it now before the newsletter

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Speaker 1: drops in a few hours time. Sean will be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: The federal government is working to get Australian citizens out

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Speaker 1: of Lebanon as Israel launched as a ground invasion of

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Speaker 1: the country.

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Speaker 2: Some commercial airlines are still flying to Lebanon, though there

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Speaker 2: is a risk of the international airport closing. The federal

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Speaker 2: government here for months has been calling on people to

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Speaker 2: leave the country. The Canadian government yesterday it had secured

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Speaker 2: eight hundred seats on commercial flights for its citizens. Treasury

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Speaker 2: Jim Chalmers urged restraint, saying Australia was gravely concerned for

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Speaker 2: the human cost of an escalation of this conflict. Now,

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Speaker 2: yesterday morning, Australian time, Israeli forces crossed into southern Lebanon,

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Speaker 2: marking a significant escalation of the crisis. The last time

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Speaker 2: Israel and hesblare engaged in ground combat was a month

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Speaker 2: long war back in two thousand and six. The Israeli

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Speaker 2: military said it had begun a limited, localized and targeted

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Speaker 2: ground raid against HESBLA in the border area in southern Lebanon.

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Speaker 2: Now the raids were accompanied by renewed strikes in Beirut's

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Speaker 2: southern suburbs.

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Speaker 1: Now a bit of economic news around at the moment,

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Speaker 1: Sean retail trade jumped to a surprisingly high zero point

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Speaker 1: seven percent in August, helped by warmer than usual weather.

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Speaker 2: Yes, particularly along the East coast. It was the warmest

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Speaker 2: month of August on record, which means since nineteen ten,

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Speaker 2: and the Bureau statistics suggest that people brought forward spring purchases.

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Speaker 2: So some of the items people were buying does suggest

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Speaker 2: they are spring purchases. So summer clothing, fair enough, liquor

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Speaker 2: or drink moren winter spring and summer outdoor dining goods, hardware,

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Speaker 2: gardening items.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, you're absolutely buying your fertilizer as you're buying

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Speaker 1: all kinds of things. Yeah, it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Lawn stuff, I'm sure, camping goods, outdoor equipment, people out

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Speaker 2: there buying it. You get a bit of hot weather,

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Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, everyone goes to Bunnings's absolute rush.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you cannot get a roll of turf, like

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Speaker 1: it's just insane, extraordinary. Yeah, and you just there's just

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Speaker 1: this trail of kind of scattered dirt where people have

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Speaker 1: just dragged them to the checkout, and you follow them

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Speaker 1: and see if you can find one that someone's left. Anyway, Sorry,

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Speaker 1: please go on.

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Speaker 2: I suppose given the tax carts from July one, and

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Speaker 2: the still strong employment market a pickup. Isn't really surprising

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Speaker 2: that the size of the improvement for the month of

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Speaker 2: August was a bit of a surprise. The retail sales

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Speaker 2: figures jump around a bit, and when there's a boom,

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Speaker 2: often soon after there's a pullback. If we've already bought

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Speaker 2: all our garden hose, well we probably don't need to

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Speaker 2: buy another one following month. Overall retail sales are up

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Speaker 2: three point one percent over the past twelve months. Mind

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Speaker 2: you that there's been a big jump in population there,

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Speaker 2: so it's probably not that strong a number.

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Speaker 1: Building approvals fell six point one percent, which was somewhat expected,

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Speaker 1: but there are a few early signs that the building

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Speaker 1: sector might have bottomed.

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Speaker 2: A large reversal of apartment approvals from last month underpinned

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Speaker 2: the August building approvals form. According to the Australian Bureau Statistics,

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Speaker 2: overall building approvals seem to have picked up from the

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Speaker 2: low point, which is a good sign, but apartment approvals

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Speaker 2: remain low at around one hundred and sixty six thousand

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Speaker 2: a year, much lower than the Housing Court's target of

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Speaker 2: about two hundred and forty thousand dwellings per year too

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Speaker 2: low versus the level of demand given Australia's chronic housing

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Speaker 2: under supplism. While house price growth has slowed outside Perth

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Speaker 2: at a Brisbane, the chronic undersupply in some capitals should

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Speaker 2: actually prevent any real sharp drops in prices.

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Speaker 1: Sean Aria has abandoned its twelve billion dollar bid for

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Speaker 1: Right Move after the UK listed real estate site knocked

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Speaker 1: back Aria's fourth bid in as many weeks.

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Speaker 2: Investors welcomed the news, including News Corp Chief executive Robert Tommson.

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Speaker 2: An Ria's share price closed up four and a half

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Speaker 2: per cent. Why are we interested in Robert Thompson's view

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Speaker 2: on what Aria is doing well? News corpone sixty one

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Speaker 2: percent of the company. Mister Thompson said it would be

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Speaker 2: foolhardy for Aria to pay any more for Right Move.

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Speaker 2: Right Movie is the dominant real estate platform in the

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Speaker 2: UK under British takeover rules. One of your favorites this one,

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Speaker 2: Michael A bidder has twenty eight days from when its

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Speaker 2: interest becomes public to formalize an offer. That meant Aria's

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Speaker 2: deadline came in yesterday morning. What do they call those rules?

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Speaker 1: Michaels that would be the put up or shut up laws.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's it, put up a shut up. Aria blamed

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Speaker 2: Right Moves Board for the bids collapse, complaining of the

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Speaker 2: director's cursory and procedural contact along with a lack of

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Speaker 2: meaningful engagement.

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Speaker 1: ABC staff have been subjected to systemic racism, including racial slurs,

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Speaker 1: derogatory and offensive comments about their appearance, stereotyping, and being

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Speaker 1: mistaken for someone else because of their racial appearance. A

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Speaker 1: report released yesterday is found.

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Speaker 2: Managing Director David Anderson issued an apology to employees both

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Speaker 2: past and president who experienced racism after the taxpayer funded

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Speaker 2: broadcaster released its independent racism review yesterday. He said anti

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Speaker 2: racism training will be rolled out at the ABC. After apologizing,

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Speaker 2: mister Anderson said the ABC needs to do better and

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Speaker 2: is committed to zero tolerance for racism in its workplace.

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Speaker 2: The ABC has implemented fifteen recommendations, including that all staff

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Speaker 2: read the report, improved averse representation at management level, and

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Speaker 2: better understand lived experiences by start to help with storytelling,

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Speaker 2: and create culturally safe support systems.

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Speaker 1: Now sewn, the latest radio ratings across the country have

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Speaker 1: so much shifted the playing field two GB, the former

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Speaker 1: number one station in Sydney, has slumped to fourth, while

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Speaker 1: ABC's main stations in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth have all

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Speaker 1: lost ground.

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Speaker 2: The other big news from the ratings is the performance

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Speaker 2: of Kiss FM's morning team of Kyle Sanderlands and Jackie

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Speaker 2: Henderson Jackie O, better known. Their share in Sydney fell

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Speaker 2: to thirteen point seven percent. That they did come in

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Speaker 2: at number one, ahead of a tumbling ben FORDAM at

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Speaker 2: two GB, but in Melbourne, where they launched earlier in

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Speaker 2: the year with much fanfare, their numbers remain poor. In fact,

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Speaker 2: they're down another zero point one percentage point to five

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Speaker 2: point two percent, not going so well at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Three AW remains a clear number one in Melbourne, with

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Speaker 2: the breakfast and morning shows doing very well, while Arn

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Speaker 2: Media's Kiss FM is number one in Sydney according to

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Speaker 2: measuring group GfK. At the ABC, the radio national flagship

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Speaker 2: program RN Breakfast lost more listeners in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

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Speaker 2: Only Breakfast in Sydney for the ABC with Craig Rucastle

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Speaker 2: was a big improver.

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Speaker 1: Sigma Healthcare has said it would bring in data sharing

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Speaker 1: rules to help alleviate concerns by the regulator regarding its

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Speaker 1: proposed seven hundred million dollar merger with Chemist Warehouse.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a bit tech head this, but stay with me.

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Speaker 2: In June, the regulator flat concerns that the merger could

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Speaker 2: potentially harmed pharmacies currently supplied by Sigma by allowing Chemist

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Speaker 2: Warehouse to access those pharmacies data in ways that could

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Speaker 2: damage competition. Now, to alleviate those concerns, Sigma has said

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Speaker 2: it will allow franchisees to terminate their agreements and place

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Speaker 2: restrictions on the use of confidential data from Sigma wholesale

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Speaker 2: customers and franchisees for a period of three years. According

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Speaker 2: to reporting the AFR, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission

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Speaker 2: is now looking full feedback from stakeholders on whether the

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Speaker 2: draft undertaking offered by Sigma may be capable of addressing

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Speaker 2: the competition concerns. Clearly a bunch of shareholders think that

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Speaker 2: they do. Because Sigma's share price Jun twenty five percent yesterday,

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Speaker 2: easily the best of the top two hundred.

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Speaker 1: That's a good story. And anytime you start a story

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Speaker 1: though with a stay with me, yeah, it's never a

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Speaker 1: good sign. But no, I stayed with you, and I

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Speaker 1: made the right decision. Good As though there was an

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Speaker 1: option just to walk out of the studio, I suppose

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Speaker 1: the alternative. Turning to international news, now, dock workers have

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Speaker 1: walked out of every major port on the US East

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Speaker 1: and Gulf coasts, marking the beginning of a strike that

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Speaker 1: could hurt the world's largest economy and also have political

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Speaker 1: implications considering it's just weeks now until the presidential election.

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Speaker 2: It's the biggest strike in nearly fifty years, and the

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Speaker 2: affected ports have the combined capacity to handle as match

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Speaker 2: as half of all US trade volume, and the strike

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Speaker 2: will halt container, cargo and auto shipments. According to a

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Speaker 2: report on Bloomberg, some exceptions will be made to allow

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Speaker 2: for the movement of military goods and cruise ships. The

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Speaker 2: economic cost of a workstoppage at every major container port

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Speaker 2: from Houston to Miami and New York, New Jersey will

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Speaker 2: be around four billion US dollars a day, according to

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Speaker 2: JP Morgan Tason Camp the International Longshoremen's Association, that is

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Speaker 2: a cracking name for a union. The International Longshoremen's Association

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Speaker 2: is seeking higher wages and a rollback of the language

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Speaker 2: on automation in new contracts.

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Speaker 1: Now, how about this one? Sean Megalopolis, the Francis Ford

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Speaker 1: Coppola film financed by the director himself, opened in the

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Speaker 1: US over the weekend, and really it bombed.

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Speaker 2: It did bomb. The eighty five year old mister Coppola

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Speaker 2: spent decades on the avant garde fable, ultimately selling part

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Speaker 2: of his wine business to raise the necessary funds about

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty million dollars in production costs, another

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Speaker 2: twenty million or so in marketing and distribution expenses. But

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Speaker 2: the movie goes well, they didn't turn up. They rejected

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Speaker 2: the film. According to report in the New York Times,

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Speaker 2: ticket sales from Thursday night through Sunday the opening weekend.

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Speaker 2: Titled about four million dollars in North America, Megalopolis played

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Speaker 2: in nearly two thousand theaters in the Unwed States. In Canada,

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Speaker 2: it's about a brilliant architect played by Adam Driver, who

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Speaker 2: wants a society to lift itself out of the gutter.

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Speaker 2: Ticket buyers gave the film a D plus grade in

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Speaker 2: Cinema score exit polls. Now, big budget movies, if they

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Speaker 2: get a sort of less than B minus, that's a surprise.

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Speaker 2: At D plus ouch. Francis Ford Coppler, You've just lost

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Speaker 2: a stack of money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed. And don't you feel sorry then for someone

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Speaker 1: who has kind of spent decades kind of working towards

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Speaker 1: this and planning for it. It's just a it's not

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Speaker 1: the way you would want to what has potentially finish

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Speaker 1: a career, right.

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Speaker 2: No, I think that's right, and he has, you know,

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Speaker 2: he he of godfather, famed Francis Ford Coppler has created

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Speaker 2: some of the greatest films ever, masterpieces. Disappointing. Yeah, all right.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Speaking

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Speaker 1: of masterpieces, this chat with Nathan Zayer from Morning.

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Speaker 2: Star overly generous, I think, Ben, Michael, Yeah, all about

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Speaker 2: the banks prospects for the big four banks as well

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Speaker 2: as some of the regionals like Benny go An, Adelaide

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Speaker 2: Bank and Bank of Queensland.

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Speaker 1: And just coming up next in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, which is where you sign up for the

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Speaker 1: free weekly newsletter which comes out this morning. So do

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Speaker 1: it now so that you don't miss out. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It is Wednesday, the

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Speaker 1: second of October twenty twenty four. Thanks to you following

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Speaker 1: the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was

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Speaker 1: fear and greed. Have a great day.