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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank has lifted interest rates, but it was

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Speaker 1: a close call, and another rate hike in May is

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Speaker 1: no longer a sure thing. The Competition Regulator warns petrol

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Speaker 1: stations over the price of fuel, and Australia heads towards

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Speaker 1: a free trade deal with the EU. Plus the beneficial

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Speaker 1: effects of medicinal cannabis questioned in a new study, and

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Speaker 1: the extraordinary efforts Asian countries are going to to conserve fuel.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the eighteenth of March twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer. Good morning,

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Speaker 1: Michael Sewan. Plenty to get through this morning. The main

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Speaker 1: story today official interest rates have risen twenty five basis points,

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Speaker 1: which will flow through to mortgages, to credit cards and

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Speaker 1: business loans after the Reserve Bank Board judged that inflation

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Speaker 1: pressures in the economy were just too high thanks to

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Speaker 1: constrained capacity, pick up in inflationary expectations and the war

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East. However, and this is fascinating, it

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Speaker 1: was far from a unanimous decision. Four of the nine

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Speaker 1: voting members called for no change in interest rates.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock said the Board

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Speaker 2: discussed a hawkish hold, meaning not actually lifting interest rates,

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Speaker 2: but saying they might in the future. Now, she said,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't about the direction of interest rates, it was

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Speaker 2: mostly about timing and some people didn't want to actually

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Speaker 2: move yesterday. In the end, the risk of inflation outweighed

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Speaker 2: the risks of hurting the jobs market.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Pick up in business investment, stronger than expected labor market

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Speaker 2: and growth in the housing market contributed to the capacity

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Speaker 2: constraint issue. The conflict in the Middle East poses substantial

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Speaker 2: risks in both directions, according to the Reserve Bank, so

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Speaker 2: a longer and more severe conflict could put further upward

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Speaker 2: pressure on global energy prices that will push up near

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Speaker 2: term inflation. Also could increase long term inflation. The flipside, however,

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Speaker 2: higher prices prolonged uncertainty may cause growth to be lower

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Speaker 2: in Australia and other economies, so two sides to that coin.

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Speaker 2: The move yesterday takes the official cash rate to four

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Speaker 2: point one percent pushes the standard variable mortgage rate to

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Speaker 2: sort of six mid sixes thereabouts on a six hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars loan. It will add about ninety five dollars

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Speaker 2: a month to repayments.

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Speaker 1: I want to dig into that in a bit more

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Speaker 1: detail than a moment, Sean. But first, is there going

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Speaker 1: to be another hike in May? Because ahead of the

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Speaker 1: meeting yesterday, right, the big banks were all forecasting increases

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Speaker 1: in March and then again in May. Does the fact

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Speaker 1: that this was a split decision yesterday matter now? It

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Speaker 1: kind of feels like a change is things?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I reckon it, Dares And if you really want

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Speaker 2: a good take on it, listen to our interview with

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Speaker 2: Dan Massina after the show from AMP because she's got

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Speaker 2: something to say about that. Look, clearly, not everyone thinks

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Speaker 2: the interest rate, that cash rate should have risen yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The Central Bank said it would make a decision on

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Speaker 2: the next move based on data. It always says that

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Speaker 2: market economists, who do this for a living, they were

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Speaker 2: split after yesterday's announcement on whether there will be another

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Speaker 2: rate hike. Some were saying, look, the fact that four

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Speaker 2: of the nine members didn't want a rate hike this

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Speaker 2: time around just demonstrates that it's not a lay down

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Speaker 2: mazire that will get another one.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now I'm looking for a little bit of an

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Speaker 1: explanation here. Sure, that's good. Yes, I've come to the

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Speaker 1: right place. Hopefully we'll see. If the cash rates four

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Speaker 1: point one percent, right, why will I be paying six

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Speaker 1: points something for my mortgage? I get obviously that it

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Speaker 1: involves risk premiums. But why is there such a big

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Speaker 1: difference between the official cash rate that is set by

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank and then what is being charged by

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Speaker 1: the banks.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so we have to think about what the cash

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Speaker 2: rate is. It's actually the interest rates that banks charge

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Speaker 2: each other when they're lending money. So not you know,

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth Bank doesn't necessarily have all the money it needs

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Speaker 2: on hand to do its business, so it borrows overnight

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Speaker 2: from Westpac. For arguments sake, it is the absolute base

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Speaker 2: rate for lending. Lending to someone who's buying a new

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Speaker 2: home is much riskier than Commonwealth Bank lending to Westpac

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Speaker 2: in this example, right, So there is that much higher

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Speaker 2: risk premium. Also, the cost of funding homelands for a

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Speaker 2: bank isn't just based on that cash rate. It's also

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Speaker 2: what they pay out on bank deposits, for example, because

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Speaker 2: they use deposits to lend on how much they spend

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Speaker 2: running their businesses. You know what the regulator says they

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Speaker 2: have to do. There's lots more to it. You put

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Speaker 2: that into the fear and greed mixed master yep right,

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Speaker 2: and you end up with about two hundred basis points

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Speaker 2: higher in terms of the variable rate mortgage then the

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Speaker 2: cash rate. It's actually a bit more than that. What

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Speaker 2: whereas customers really want to see is plenty of competition

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Speaker 2: because that way lenders have to work really hard to

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Speaker 2: shave off costs to gain our patronage. And that's why

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Speaker 2: we like competition in the market, because that is actually

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Speaker 2: what reduces the gap between the cash rate and what

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Speaker 2: we're paying on our mortgage.

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Speaker 1: Okay, great explanation. It's almost it's almost as though you're

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Speaker 1: a banking reporter at one point or an Obviously, higher

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Speaker 1: rates should put a brake on spending. Obviously, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to be rushing out splurging too much anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: But so too will higher petrol prices. City Bank estimates

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Speaker 1: that for every ten cent increase in average fuel prices,

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Speaker 1: consumers would be hit with a one point six billion

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Speaker 1: dollar direct annual cost, and the total cost could be

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Speaker 1: six to seven billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: And that would be a far more meaningful detraction from

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Speaker 2: household spending than yesterday's interest rate hike. And that's what's

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Speaker 2: so interesting about it. The analysis came as a competition

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Speaker 2: watch dog held an emergency meeting of major fuel supplies

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Speaker 2: asking for an explanation for the sharp spike in petrol prices.

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Speaker 2: Fuel prices in metropolitan and regional areas haveen and by

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Speaker 2: an average of almost fifty cents a leter in less

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Speaker 2: than three weeks.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: The government and industry is basically blaming panic buying. Yesterday's

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Speaker 2: meaning involved Viva Energy, BP, Australia x on Mobiles, Chevron

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Speaker 2: seven to eleven NRMA was in there, The Australian Orminobil

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Speaker 2: Association was there as well. Treasure Jim Chalmers had mean

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Speaker 2: He said that the ahub C will throw the book

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Speaker 2: at any retailers and supplies found to be using the

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Speaker 2: crisis to unreasonably push up prices.

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Speaker 1: Obviously a big day yesterday, How did local markets react

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Speaker 1: to the news.

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Speaker 2: The market was up slightly ahead of the two thirty

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Speaker 2: pm announcement, then it jumped after the details of the

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Speaker 2: five to four vote were released. The fact that it

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Speaker 2: was such a split decision by the clothes it was

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Speaker 2: almost half percent higher. Gold miners led the way as

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Speaker 2: a price for the precious metal rows. The coal companies

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Speaker 2: were among the worst performers commodity markets, brents fetching back

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Speaker 2: above one hundred US dollars a barrel, iron ores off somewhat,

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Speaker 2: though it is still around one hundred dollars a ton basis,

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Speaker 2: and the Aussie dollar, it jumped on the back of

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Speaker 2: yesterday's announcement it's buying almost seventy one US since.

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Speaker 1: All right, quick break back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news. Sean Australia is inching

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Speaker 1: towards a free trade deal with the European Union, with

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Speaker 1: reports suggesting it might be announced or at least finalized,

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Speaker 1: with European Commission President Ursula Vondalayan expected to travel to

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Speaker 1: Canberra next week. Bloomberg reported overnight that Vondalayan had told

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Speaker 1: EU leaders in a letter that talks with Australia were

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Speaker 1: in the final stretch. Trade Minister Don Farrell yesterday told

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Speaker 1: nine media that he was and I quote confident we

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Speaker 1: can do a deal. That sounds like he might know something.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it does, doesn't mind you. I've been down this

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Speaker 2: path a few times. A deal would be valued around

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Speaker 2: one hundred and ten billion dollars long proposed sticking point

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Speaker 2: pretty much always has been agriculture and the quantity of

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Speaker 2: meat Australia could sell into European markets, particularly touching for

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Speaker 2: the French, for the Irish farmers. Any deal would definitely

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Speaker 2: cut the price of European cars in Australia, open the

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Speaker 2: door to more foreign investment, lower the barriers to local

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Speaker 2: farm exporters. Talks there were issues like, you know, can

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Speaker 2: we use the word prosheko and feeder cheese and things

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Speaker 2: like that. The naming rights of European products. They've pretty

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Speaker 2: much been overcome apparently, so it is just this ag

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Speaker 2: But it'd be great if a slav vonder Lane I

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Speaker 2: just wanted to say a name. If she turns up

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Speaker 2: in Camber next week, I wouldn't be surprised if some

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Speaker 2: sort of deal is finalized, if not announced.

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Speaker 1: I love the idea that she's told EU leaders in

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Speaker 1: a letter. It feels very old, It sounds very EU.

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Speaker 1: It does, doesn't it.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: The Federal Government SEAN has released a review of Australia's

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Speaker 1: r and D sector. Headed by TESLA chair Robin Denholm.

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Speaker 1: She led a year long independent review. You got to

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Speaker 1: say the headline finding is actually pretty damning. Australia's R

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Speaker 1: and D investment has dropped to one point six nine

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Speaker 1: percent of GDP, which is well below global leaders I.

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Speaker 2: Would like one point six to nine percent of GDP.

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Speaker 2: If you want to have a productive society in the future,

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Speaker 2: you have to spend money investing in it. Yeah, and

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Speaker 2: that's a that's a shock. The review made twenty recommendations,

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Speaker 2: including setting up a central body to coordinate research, boosting grants,

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Speaker 2: introducing tax credits for manufacturing. Another option floated cash advances

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Speaker 2: for promising startups. Gnome wrote an op ed with a

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Speaker 2: great line, we gave the world Wi Fi, so why

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Speaker 2: can't we build a tech industry? A fair point. I

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Speaker 2: mean we've done it like cock Clear, implants Australia, the

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Speaker 2: black Box, flight recorder, Google Maps all Australian. We keep

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Speaker 2: inventing stuff, then we let other countries commercialize them. This

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Speaker 2: is about actually not allowing that to happen.

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Speaker 1: That is a really good it's a great line. We

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Speaker 1: gave the world Wi Fi, so why can't we build

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Speaker 1: a tech industry. Very good question. Now, the largest ever

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Speaker 1: review of medicinal cannabis trials has found no evidence that

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Speaker 1: it was actually effective in treating anxiety, depression or post

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Speaker 1: traumatic stress disorder, notwithstanding an explosion in the number of

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Speaker 1: prescriptions being written for those conditions. The lead author, Jack Wilson,

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Speaker 1: from the University of Sydney, said the use of cannabis

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Speaker 1: could be causing more harm than good, including a greater

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Speaker 1: risk of psychotic symptoms and addiction. He called for tighter

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Speaker 1: controls on the prescription of unapproved medical cannabis products more

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Speaker 1: than get this, more than one thousand of which are

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Speaker 1: legally sold on the Australian market.

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Speaker 2: That is a lot. Yeah, there's no doubt this area

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Speaker 2: is a bit of a mess. And the third Goods

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Speaker 2: in reministration actually said that yesterday. The University of Sydney review,

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Speaker 2: which analyzed fifty four randomized controlled trials conducted globally on

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Speaker 2: cannabis and mental health over forty five years, found that

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Speaker 2: cannabis may be effective for reducing seizures, associate associated with

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Speaker 2: some forms of epilepsy, spasticity in people with multiple sclerosis,

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Speaker 2: and pain management. According to the finn but the data shows,

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Speaker 2: or the Therapeutic Goods Administration data shows that as of

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Speaker 2: early this year, that's not kind of why people were

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Speaker 2: being prescribed medicinal cannabis. Well, that's not true. Chronic pain

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Speaker 2: certainly a big reason for it, but the second biggest

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Speaker 2: reason was anxiety, and this review doesn't suggest that actually

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Speaker 2: cannabis helps anxiety. Other reasons being prescribed sleep disorders PTSD,

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Speaker 2: insomnia and depression. Now more than one million Australians use

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Speaker 2: medicinal cannabis each year, up from about eighteen thousand five

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Speaker 2: or six years ago, according to the Australian Health Practitioner

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Speaker 2: Regulation Agency. So this study will affect a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: He's gone from eighteen thousand to a million in five years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, incredible, isn't it?

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Speaker 1: Wow? Okay, turning to international news now, and the UAE

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Speaker 1: temporarily closed its airspace yesterday as a precautionary measure following

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Speaker 1: Dubai's suspending operations the previous day on Monday, when a

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Speaker 1: drone attack sparked a fuel tank of fire. The bombing

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Speaker 1: across the region continues. Drones and rockets were launched at

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Speaker 1: the US embassy in Iraq's capital, Baghdad, and what was

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Speaker 1: described as the most intense assault since attacks began.

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump was critical of the level of

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Speaker 2: enthusiasm he received from allies. Unenthusiastic. I thinks the word

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Speaker 2: used when urging them to join his war against Iran.

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Speaker 2: Israel escalated its air and ground offensive against the Iran

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Speaker 2: backed militia Hesblah, with ground troops targeting Hesbler strongholds. Now

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Speaker 2: in response, leaders from Canada, France, Germany, the UK and

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Speaker 2: easily released a joint statement urging against acignificant ground offensive

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Speaker 2: by Israel in Lebanon, saying the humanitarian outcomes could be disastrous.

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Speaker 2: Trump said he was seeking to lay his trip to

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Speaker 2: China as well because of the war.

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Speaker 1: Now. I mentioned this at the top of the show.

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Speaker 1: Sean the somewhat novel ideas that that countries are coming

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Speaker 1: up with now to try and conserve fuel. Sri Lanka

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Speaker 1: has declared every Wednesday of public holiday. Ah idea, Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it certainly is novel right to conserve fuel. The goal

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Speaker 1: is the island nation is grappling with these possible shortages

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Speaker 1: in the wake of the war with Iran. Sri Lankan

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Speaker 1: President Anua Kumara Dissaniaka said at an emergency meeting with

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Speaker 1: senior officials, we must prepare for the worst, but hope

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Speaker 1: for the best. It is the latest in a series

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Speaker 1: of belt tightening measures undertaken by Asian country since in

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Speaker 1: the war choked off the Strait of Humus, which is

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Speaker 1: used to carry milllions of barrels of oil from the

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Speaker 1: Gulf into the region. According to the BBC, they are

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Speaker 1: very much dependent on these supplies.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so nearly nine percent of oil all oil and

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Speaker 2: gas flowing through the straight last year was bound for Asia,

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Speaker 2: which is the world's largest oil importing region. Some pretty

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Speaker 2: amazing measures going on here as well, but like entaire Land,

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Speaker 2: for example, the government's urging people to not wear suits

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Speaker 2: but wear short sleeved t shirts to reduce reliance on

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Speaker 2: air conditioning. In Myanmar, private vehicles are now allowed only

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Speaker 2: to operate on alternate days, depending on their license plate numbers.

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Speaker 2: Bangladesh has brought forward Ramadan holidays and universities and introduced

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Speaker 2: planned blackouts across the nation to conserve energy. Quite extreme

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Speaker 2: some of the measures being taken to conserve energy. And

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Speaker 2: this is only what three weeks of this crisis. What

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Speaker 2: happens if it goes for three months.

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Speaker 1: I was going to make that point that this has

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Speaker 1: happened so quickly that we are only a few weeks

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Speaker 1: into this and already countries are being forced to take

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Speaker 1: what are I mean We joke about it being novel solutions,

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Speaker 1: but they are actually quite extreme.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, Okay.

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Speaker 1: Up next, Sean is Fear and Greed Q and A.

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Speaker 1: You're speaking today with Diana Messina, deputy chief economist from AMP.

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Speaker 1: It is all about interest rates.

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Speaker 2: All about interest rates. Diana's not one hundred percent sure

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Speaker 2: that there will be another rate high. That's the good us.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, it's coming up next to the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au. Thank you, Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the eighteenth of March twenty twenty six. Make sure you're

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Speaker 1: following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn

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Speaker 1: and Instagram.

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Speaker 2: I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was Fear and Greed. Had a great day.