Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.
Speaker 1: The leader of Hezbalah has been killed in an Israeli
Speaker 1: air strike in Beirut. Hassan Israelah led the group for
Speaker 1: more than thirty years, building it into a powerful political
Speaker 1: force within Lebanon and the most heavily armed non state
Speaker 1: militia in the world. Israeli Prime Minister Benjaminettanyahu reportedly ordered
Speaker 1: the killing from his hotel room in New York before
Speaker 1: the speak of the United Nations General Assembly. Joe Biden
Speaker 1: has called the killing a measure of justice. But Lebanon
Speaker 1: is entering three days a morning at a time where
Speaker 1: more than half a million people at this placed there,
Speaker 1: and air strikes continue today. Middle East correspondent for The
Speaker 1: Economist Greg Carlstrom on Hassan Israelar's legacy and what his
Speaker 1: death means for Lebanon and for Israel. It's Monday, September. Greg,
Speaker 1: thank you for speaking with this to start. Can you
Speaker 1: tell me who Hussan Israela was and what his impact
Speaker 1: was over the more than thirty years that he led
Speaker 1: Hesblah Right.
Speaker 2: He was the leader of the organization since nineteen ninety
Speaker 2: two and He's someone who in those years turned into
Speaker 2: a larger than life figure not only in Lebanon but
Speaker 2: across the Middle East, even though he was very rarely
Speaker 2: seen in public. He spent most of his time underground
Speaker 2: in bunkers for fear of being assassinated, but someone who
Speaker 2: spoke regularly, was known for his charismatic speeches that were
Speaker 2: watched not only in Lebanon but across the Arab world. Idea,
Speaker 2: and someone who in Lebanon, at least within his Shi'ah constituency,
Speaker 2: associated with the victory of two thousand when Israeli troops
Speaker 2: withdrew from South Lebanon, which they had been occupying for
Speaker 2: almost two decades, and then was credited with what many
Speaker 2: Lebanese saw as a victory in the two thousand and
Speaker 2: six war against Israel. So he had this mythos attached
Speaker 2: to him. Now that started to turn sour over the
Speaker 2: past ten years, when Hesbilah became a central part of
Speaker 2: propping up the Assad regime in Syria, many not just Lebanese,
Speaker 2: but many Arabs began to see it no longer fighting
Speaker 2: against Israel, which was a popular cause in parts of
Speaker 2: the Arab world, and instead fighting against other Arabs fighting
Speaker 2: against Syria and starving and killing thousands of Syrians. That
Speaker 2: damaged the reputation of both Masrella personally and Hesibela as
Speaker 2: an organization, but still someone who was again a larger
Speaker 2: than life figure across the region.
Speaker 1: Here does Hezbela actually fit into the Lebanese society? What
Speaker 1: role does it play in the everyday existence of people?
Speaker 1: Will live it on.
Speaker 2: It's sometimes described as a state within a state. I
Speaker 2: think that is a fair way to describe it. It
Speaker 2: is the strongest military force in Lebanon. It is better
Speaker 2: equipped than the Lebanese Army. There are parts of the country,
Speaker 2: particularly in the south near the border between Lebanon and Israel,
Speaker 2: where has effective security control of the Lebanese Army does
Speaker 2: not have a meaningful presence in the south or sometimes
Speaker 2: on the border between Lebanon and Syria as well. So
Speaker 2: an incredibly powerful military actor maintains a network of social
Speaker 2: services across the country, schools, cultural institutions, a growing economic empire.
Speaker 2: It has its own network of supermarkets, for example, that
Speaker 2: often sell products imported from Iran, products that are cheaper
Speaker 2: than products you will find in other supermarkets in Lebanon.
Speaker 2: And then it's a political party as well, that has
Speaker 2: MPs in the parliament, that sometimes has ministers in the cabinet.
Speaker 2: And Hesbela and its allies at the moment control a
Speaker 2: majority of the Lebanese Parliament. So not just a militia
Speaker 2: but also a political party, a charitable organization, and you know,
Speaker 2: I think it's fair to say the most influential actor
Speaker 2: in Lebanon.
Speaker 1: We know that Hezbola backed by Iran as part of
Speaker 1: the excess of resistance, but can you tell us what
Speaker 1: that actually means in practice?
Speaker 2: This axis of resistance concept which Nostrela often promoted, the
Speaker 2: Iranians often promote, is the idea that there is this
Speaker 2: network of Iranian backed militias across the region that are
Speaker 2: committed to fighting Israel and fighting America. Includes Hesibala, it
Speaker 2: includes Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian territories, various
Speaker 2: militias in Iraq, Houthis and Yemen. All of these groups
Speaker 2: receive varying levels of military and financial support from Iran.
Speaker 2: In the case of Hesbellah, it is very very extensive
Speaker 2: financial and military support. The Iranians have spent tens of
Speaker 2: billions of dollars over the course of decades to try
Speaker 2: and build up Hazebla's military capabilities. The arsenal of rockets
Speaker 2: and missiles that it has, many of those were developed
Speaker 2: with Iranian know how. Because of Iranian training, Iran has
Speaker 2: sent kits to Lebanon, for example, to try and retrofit
Speaker 2: unguided missiles to turn them into precision guided missiles that
Speaker 2: can strike anywhere inside of Israel. It has provided training
Speaker 2: to Hezeblah commanders, who then go back to Lebanon and
Speaker 2: train the rank and file. It has been intimately involved
Speaker 2: in the growth of Haba as a militia since the
Speaker 2: organization was founded back in the nineteen eighties.
Speaker 1: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Menna, who has said this assassination
Speaker 1: is proof and are quote we can strike anywhere unquote.
Speaker 1: What does it say about Israel's current intelligence and military
Speaker 1: position that they've been able to kill civil Harlem, hasbela
Speaker 1: command is as well as they later in such quick succession.
Speaker 2: It says they have been incredibly successful at penetrating Hesbola
Speaker 2: and that has been the main focus of their intelligence
Speaker 2: gathering apparatus for almost two decades now. Since the end
Speaker 2: of the two thousand and six war. The Israelis during
Speaker 2: that war tried to kill in Mosrella. They were unsuccessful,
Speaker 2: and they devoted a huge effort and a lot of
Speaker 2: resources in the subsequent years to develop sources inside of
Speaker 2: Lebanon who could give them information from inside of hes
Speaker 2: Ablah to as we saw with the pager in wakie
Speaker 2: talkie attacks, setting up front companies that could penetrate Hesbela's
Speaker 2: supply chains that could sabotage electronic devices that were being
Speaker 2: shipped to Lebanon for the group. It has worked very
Speaker 2: hard to infiltrate the organization and it has been more successful,
Speaker 2: I think than anyone anticipated that it would have been.
Speaker 1: Up after the break. How Hassan Israel's death will reshape
Speaker 1: the Middle East? Greg Israel has killed Hassan Israelab. It's
Speaker 1: a significant development in a conflict that has been ongoing
Speaker 1: since October seven. We have both seen his BLA and
Speaker 1: Israel launch missiles at each other out of the past year,
Speaker 1: but was both sides pulling back from a major escalation.
Speaker 1: So can you talk to me about while we have
Speaker 1: recently seen the conflict to escalate, what's changed.
Speaker 2: Nostralla made a gamble almost a year ago on October eighth,
Speaker 2: when he started firing rockets at the Northern Israel in
Speaker 2: solidarity with Gaza. He made a gamble that he could
Speaker 2: sustain an open ended conflict but keep it a limited conflict,
Speaker 2: and for about nine months he was successful.
Speaker 1: At that.
Speaker 2: There was back and forth fire along the border. Has
Speaker 2: A Blah would fire short range rockets at northern Israel,
Speaker 2: which deepopated Northern Israel. Israel retaliated with artillery and air
Speaker 2: strikes in southern Lebanon, depopulated a part of southern Lebanon.
Speaker 2: But neither side, as you say, was willing to go
Speaker 2: further than that, to go beyond these informal rules of engagement.
Speaker 2: That started to change in July when Hezebela fired a
Speaker 2: rocket which we believe was aimed at a military base
Speaker 2: on the Goal On Heights and the Israeli occupied Goal
Speaker 2: On Heights but overshot its target landed on a football
Speaker 2: pitch where children were playing, killed twelve children. The Israeli
Speaker 2: government at that point decided that it wanted to change
Speaker 2: these informal rules of engagement, and so three days after
Speaker 2: that it assassinated for Wadshukur, who was the military commander
Speaker 2: of Hezebealah ahead of its military operations. He was killed
Speaker 2: in an Israeli air strike in Beirut. The thinking at
Speaker 2: the time was that that might have been a one off,
Speaker 2: that might have been a single bit of retaliation for
Speaker 2: the strike that killed those children, But in fact it
Speaker 2: was an opening salvo, and the Israelis went and prepared
Speaker 2: the plans that we've seen unfold over the past couple
Speaker 2: of weeks, this campaign of air strikes across the country,
Speaker 2: a further series of targeted assassinations. There were many, many
Speaker 2: people in the Israeli government, in the Israeli Army who,
Speaker 2: for those nine months that the conflict was limited to
Speaker 2: the border, were very unhappy about that dynamic, who wanted
Speaker 2: Israel to escalate in order to try and change what
Speaker 2: had become a frozen conflict. And that rocket that killed
Speaker 2: those children on the football pitch, that was the sort
Speaker 2: of shift that they needed, the opportunity that they needed
Speaker 2: to change Israeli policy and pursue this much more escalatory path.
Speaker 1: What I was seven was saying as a major security
Speaker 1: failure for Israel that Hamas, which is a much weaker
Speaker 1: opponent than his Bellah was able to do that level
Speaker 1: of damage was a big shock to a lot of
Speaker 1: people in Israel. So how much of this assassination is
Speaker 1: about Israel reasserting it a terrance signal to its enemies.
Speaker 2: Israel has wanted to do that for a y year now,
Speaker 2: I mean after October seventh, there were many many people
Speaker 2: making unflattering comparisons to nineteen seventy three, the MK War War,
Speaker 2: when Israel was completely taken by surprise by its Arab
Speaker 2: enemies who invaded and were able to temporarily at least
Speaker 2: make big gains against the Israeli army. October seventh was
Speaker 2: the biggest security failure to happen in Israel in fifty years,
Speaker 2: and it left Israeli generals, Israeli politicians very eager to
Speaker 2: try and re establish the terrens across the region, and
Speaker 2: arguably they have done that over the past couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: What impact will he's killing head on domestic politics in
Speaker 1: Israel and particularly on Benjamin Now he's understanding it.
Speaker 2: Will help his political standing, which would have been unthinkable
Speaker 2: almost a year ago. After October seventh, To imagine that Nataniel,
Speaker 2: who was at the time the most I think unpopular
Speaker 2: prime minister in Israeli history to imagine that his fortunes
Speaker 2: could recover, but they are recovering. He for months now,
Speaker 2: I think, has been desperate to show Israelis that something
Speaker 2: is going well on one of the fronts on which
Speaker 2: Israel is fighting, and he hasn't been able to make
Speaker 2: that case. In Gaza. The war has ground into a stalemate.
Speaker 1: There.
Speaker 2: Israel has not managed to achieve either of its stated goals,
Speaker 2: the total defeat of Hamas or the return of one
Speaker 2: hundred and one Israeli hostages who are still being held
Speaker 2: in Gaza. Hasn't accomplished either of those things so far,
Speaker 2: and the Israeli public, according to poll after poll, thinks
Speaker 2: that Israel is not winning the war in Gaza and
Speaker 2: is very pessimistic about the government's policy in Gaza. So politically,
Speaker 2: for Nataniel, what's happened over the past couple of weeks
Speaker 2: is a chance to shift the focus somewhere else and
Speaker 2: to suddenly make it seem as if Israel is winning,
Speaker 2: or Israel is at least making progress. It's achieving successes
Speaker 2: rather than security failures. And so I think when we
Speaker 2: start to see opinion polls over the next couple of
Speaker 2: weeks of how Israelis would vote if there was another election.
Speaker 2: I think those calls will show that this is probably helping.
Speaker 1: That's in the Alpolitically, we have a situation now where
Speaker 1: there doesn't seem to be any end to conflict in site.
Speaker 1: We have over half a million people now this is
Speaker 1: placed in Lebanon. We have tens of thousands dead in Gaza.
Speaker 1: Where does all this end in terms of there being
Speaker 1: a potential resolution to these ongoing conflicts.
Speaker 2: No one has an answer for that yet. Unfortunately. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think Israelis are exuberant right now because of these
Speaker 2: operational successes tactical successes in Lebanon over the past couple
Speaker 2: of weeks. But the strategic aim of all of this
Speaker 2: for Israel is to create conditions where sixty thousand people
Speaker 2: feel safe going back to their homes in northern Israel
Speaker 2: on the border with Lebanon. And it's difficult to see
Speaker 2: how military action, even continued military action like we've seen
Speaker 2: over the past couple of weeks, is going to remove
Speaker 2: the threat of Hezibala firing rockets or perhaps carrying out
Speaker 2: a ground attack on northern Lebanon. That is what sent
Speaker 2: sixty thousand people fleeing to other parts of the country,
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure how the Israeli government creates an
Speaker 2: enduring change in that dynamic just through military force. Similarly,
Speaker 2: in Gaza, Netaneo is still not interested in a cease fire.
Speaker 2: His coalition is not interested in a cease fire. Some
Speaker 2: members of his coalition still harbor the dream that Israel
Speaker 2: will occupy Gaza forever, it will rebuild the settlements that
Speaker 2: were dismantled in two thousand and five, and Netaniel doesn't
Speaker 2: want to cross his coalition, and so he is pursuing
Speaker 2: this sort of forever war in Gaza that looks like
Speaker 2: it will doom the remaining hostages who are there. In fairness,
Speaker 2: the leader of Hamasi yes Sinwar also not interested in
Speaker 2: a ceasefire. He thinks prolonged war is going to help
Speaker 2: him by damaging Israel's international standing, damaging Israel's internal cohesion,
Speaker 2: and has a blat in Lebanon. We should say it
Speaker 2: is still firing rockets at northern Israel, even though it
Speaker 2: has taken these enormous blows over the past couple of
Speaker 2: weeks that certainly look like it's losing the war, and
Speaker 2: this war is not accomplishing anything for it. It continues
Speaker 2: to fire rockets. So all of the parties to this
Speaker 2: conflict are continuing with open ended conflict even though they're
Speaker 2: not sure how that conflict is going to achieve any
Speaker 2: of their strategic games in the long term.
Speaker 1: Greg, thanks for Jaton.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Also in the use today, SPICEX has sent in a
Speaker 1: to rescue two astronauts stranded on the International Space Station,
Speaker 1: which Wilmore and Sunny Williams were expected to be gone
Speaker 1: a week when they signed up for Boeing's first to
Speaker 1: astronaut flight, but they were unable to return due to
Speaker 1: safety concerns. When they finally do return in February, they
Speaker 1: will have spent more than eight months in space. And
Speaker 1: there were almost twenty three hundred assaults at New South
Speaker 1: Wales schools in the year to June. New figure show
Speaker 1: the data released by the New South Wales Bureau of
Speaker 1: Crime Statistics and Research points to her rise in intimidation,
Speaker 1: stalking and harassment incidents, with the rise and assaults spiking
Speaker 1: since the pandemic. While there has been a sharp increase
Speaker 1: in reports of assault in the past decade, data show's
Speaker 1: use of drugs and school grounds has dropped. I'm Daniel James.
Speaker 1: This is seven AM. Thanks for listening.