WEBVTT - How the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader will reshape the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>The leader of Hezbalah has been killed in an Israeli

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<v Speaker 1>air strike in Beirut. Hassan Israelah led the group for

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<v Speaker 1>more than thirty years, building it into a powerful political

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<v Speaker 1>force within Lebanon and the most heavily armed non state

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<v Speaker 1>militia in the world. Israeli Prime Minister Benjaminettanyahu reportedly ordered

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<v Speaker 1>the killing from his hotel room in New York before

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<v Speaker 1>the speak of the United Nations General Assembly. Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 1>has called the killing a measure of justice. But Lebanon

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<v Speaker 1>is entering three days a morning at a time where

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<v Speaker 1>more than half a million people at this placed there,

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<v Speaker 1>and air strikes continue today. Middle East correspondent for The

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<v Speaker 1>Economist Greg Carlstrom on Hassan Israelar's legacy and what his

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<v Speaker 1>death means for Lebanon and for Israel. It's Monday, September. Greg,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for speaking with this to start. Can you

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<v Speaker 1>tell me who Hussan Israela was and what his impact

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<v Speaker 1>was over the more than thirty years that he led

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<v Speaker 1>Hesblah Right.

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<v Speaker 2>He was the leader of the organization since nineteen ninety

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<v Speaker 2>two and He's someone who in those years turned into

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<v Speaker 2>a larger than life figure not only in Lebanon but

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<v Speaker 2>across the Middle East, even though he was very rarely

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<v Speaker 2>seen in public. He spent most of his time underground

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<v Speaker 2>in bunkers for fear of being assassinated, but someone who

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<v Speaker 2>spoke regularly, was known for his charismatic speeches that were

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<v Speaker 2>watched not only in Lebanon but across the Arab world. Idea,

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<v Speaker 2>and someone who in Lebanon, at least within his Shi'ah constituency,

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<v Speaker 2>associated with the victory of two thousand when Israeli troops

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<v Speaker 2>withdrew from South Lebanon, which they had been occupying for

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<v Speaker 2>almost two decades, and then was credited with what many

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<v Speaker 2>Lebanese saw as a victory in the two thousand and

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<v Speaker 2>six war against Israel. So he had this mythos attached

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<v Speaker 2>to him. Now that started to turn sour over the

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<v Speaker 2>past ten years, when Hesbilah became a central part of

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<v Speaker 2>propping up the Assad regime in Syria, many not just Lebanese,

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<v Speaker 2>but many Arabs began to see it no longer fighting

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<v Speaker 2>against Israel, which was a popular cause in parts of

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<v Speaker 2>the Arab world, and instead fighting against other Arabs fighting

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<v Speaker 2>against Syria and starving and killing thousands of Syrians. That

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<v Speaker 2>damaged the reputation of both Masrella personally and Hesibela as

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<v Speaker 2>an organization, but still someone who was again a larger

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<v Speaker 2>than life figure across the region.

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<v Speaker 1>Here does Hezbela actually fit into the Lebanese society? What

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<v Speaker 1>role does it play in the everyday existence of people?

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<v Speaker 1>Will live it on.

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<v Speaker 2>It's sometimes described as a state within a state. I

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<v Speaker 2>think that is a fair way to describe it. It

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<v Speaker 2>is the strongest military force in Lebanon. It is better

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<v Speaker 2>equipped than the Lebanese Army. There are parts of the country,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly in the south near the border between Lebanon and Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>where has effective security control of the Lebanese Army does

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<v Speaker 2>not have a meaningful presence in the south or sometimes

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<v Speaker 2>on the border between Lebanon and Syria as well. So

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<v Speaker 2>an incredibly powerful military actor maintains a network of social

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<v Speaker 2>services across the country, schools, cultural institutions, a growing economic empire.

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<v Speaker 2>It has its own network of supermarkets, for example, that

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<v Speaker 2>often sell products imported from Iran, products that are cheaper

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<v Speaker 2>than products you will find in other supermarkets in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>And then it's a political party as well, that has

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<v Speaker 2>MPs in the parliament, that sometimes has ministers in the cabinet.

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<v Speaker 2>And Hesbela and its allies at the moment control a

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<v Speaker 2>majority of the Lebanese Parliament. So not just a militia

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<v Speaker 2>but also a political party, a charitable organization, and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's fair to say the most influential actor

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<v Speaker 2>in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>We know that Hezbola backed by Iran as part of

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<v Speaker 1>the excess of resistance, but can you tell us what

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<v Speaker 1>that actually means in practice?

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<v Speaker 2>This axis of resistance concept which Nostrela often promoted, the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranians often promote, is the idea that there is this

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<v Speaker 2>network of Iranian backed militias across the region that are

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<v Speaker 2>committed to fighting Israel and fighting America. Includes Hesibala, it

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<v Speaker 2>includes Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian territories, various

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<v Speaker 2>militias in Iraq, Houthis and Yemen. All of these groups

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<v Speaker 2>receive varying levels of military and financial support from Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>In the case of Hesbellah, it is very very extensive

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<v Speaker 2>financial and military support. The Iranians have spent tens of

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<v Speaker 2>billions of dollars over the course of decades to try

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<v Speaker 2>and build up Hazebla's military capabilities. The arsenal of rockets

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<v Speaker 2>and missiles that it has, many of those were developed

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<v Speaker 2>with Iranian know how. Because of Iranian training, Iran has

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<v Speaker 2>sent kits to Lebanon, for example, to try and retrofit

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<v Speaker 2>unguided missiles to turn them into precision guided missiles that

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<v Speaker 2>can strike anywhere inside of Israel. It has provided training

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<v Speaker 2>to Hezeblah commanders, who then go back to Lebanon and

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<v Speaker 2>train the rank and file. It has been intimately involved

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<v Speaker 2>in the growth of Haba as a militia since the

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<v Speaker 2>organization was founded back in the nineteen eighties.

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<v Speaker 1>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Menna, who has said this assassination

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<v Speaker 1>is proof and are quote we can strike anywhere unquote.

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<v Speaker 1>What does it say about Israel's current intelligence and military

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<v Speaker 1>position that they've been able to kill civil Harlem, hasbela

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<v Speaker 1>command is as well as they later in such quick succession.

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<v Speaker 2>It says they have been incredibly successful at penetrating Hesbola

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<v Speaker 2>and that has been the main focus of their intelligence

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<v Speaker 2>gathering apparatus for almost two decades now. Since the end

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<v Speaker 2>of the two thousand and six war. The Israelis during

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<v Speaker 2>that war tried to kill in Mosrella. They were unsuccessful,

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<v Speaker 2>and they devoted a huge effort and a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>resources in the subsequent years to develop sources inside of

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<v Speaker 2>Lebanon who could give them information from inside of hes

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<v Speaker 2>Ablah to as we saw with the pager in wakie

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<v Speaker 2>talkie attacks, setting up front companies that could penetrate Hesbela's

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<v Speaker 2>supply chains that could sabotage electronic devices that were being

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<v Speaker 2>shipped to Lebanon for the group. It has worked very

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<v Speaker 2>hard to infiltrate the organization and it has been more successful,

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<v Speaker 2>I think than anyone anticipated that it would have been.

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<v Speaker 1>Up after the break. How Hassan Israel's death will reshape

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East? Greg Israel has killed Hassan Israelab. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a significant development in a conflict that has been ongoing

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<v Speaker 1>since October seven. We have both seen his BLA and

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<v Speaker 1>Israel launch missiles at each other out of the past year,

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<v Speaker 1>but was both sides pulling back from a major escalation.

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<v Speaker 1>So can you talk to me about while we have

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<v Speaker 1>recently seen the conflict to escalate, what's changed.

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<v Speaker 2>Nostralla made a gamble almost a year ago on October eighth,

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<v Speaker 2>when he started firing rockets at the Northern Israel in

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<v Speaker 2>solidarity with Gaza. He made a gamble that he could

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<v Speaker 2>sustain an open ended conflict but keep it a limited conflict,

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<v Speaker 2>and for about nine months he was successful.

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<v Speaker 1>At that.

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<v Speaker 2>There was back and forth fire along the border. Has

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<v Speaker 2>A Blah would fire short range rockets at northern Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>which deepopated Northern Israel. Israel retaliated with artillery and air

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<v Speaker 2>strikes in southern Lebanon, depopulated a part of southern Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>But neither side, as you say, was willing to go

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<v Speaker 2>further than that, to go beyond these informal rules of engagement.

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<v Speaker 2>That started to change in July when Hezebela fired a

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<v Speaker 2>rocket which we believe was aimed at a military base

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<v Speaker 2>on the Goal On Heights and the Israeli occupied Goal

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<v Speaker 2>On Heights but overshot its target landed on a football

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<v Speaker 2>pitch where children were playing, killed twelve children. The Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>government at that point decided that it wanted to change

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<v Speaker 2>these informal rules of engagement, and so three days after

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<v Speaker 2>that it assassinated for Wadshukur, who was the military commander

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<v Speaker 2>of Hezebealah ahead of its military operations. He was killed

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<v Speaker 2>in an Israeli air strike in Beirut. The thinking at

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<v Speaker 2>the time was that that might have been a one off,

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<v Speaker 2>that might have been a single bit of retaliation for

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<v Speaker 2>the strike that killed those children, But in fact it

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<v Speaker 2>was an opening salvo, and the Israelis went and prepared

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<v Speaker 2>the plans that we've seen unfold over the past couple

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<v Speaker 2>of weeks, this campaign of air strikes across the country,

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<v Speaker 2>a further series of targeted assassinations. There were many, many

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<v Speaker 2>people in the Israeli government, in the Israeli Army who,

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<v Speaker 2>for those nine months that the conflict was limited to

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<v Speaker 2>the border, were very unhappy about that dynamic, who wanted

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<v Speaker 2>Israel to escalate in order to try and change what

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<v Speaker 2>had become a frozen conflict. And that rocket that killed

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<v Speaker 2>those children on the football pitch, that was the sort

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<v Speaker 2>of shift that they needed, the opportunity that they needed

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<v Speaker 2>to change Israeli policy and pursue this much more escalatory path.

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<v Speaker 1>What I was seven was saying as a major security

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<v Speaker 1>failure for Israel that Hamas, which is a much weaker

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<v Speaker 1>opponent than his Bellah was able to do that level

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<v Speaker 1>of damage was a big shock to a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people in Israel. So how much of this assassination is

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<v Speaker 1>about Israel reasserting it a terrance signal to its enemies.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel has wanted to do that for a y year now,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean after October seventh, there were many many people

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<v Speaker 2>making unflattering comparisons to nineteen seventy three, the MK War War,

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<v Speaker 2>when Israel was completely taken by surprise by its Arab

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<v Speaker 2>enemies who invaded and were able to temporarily at least

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<v Speaker 2>make big gains against the Israeli army. October seventh was

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<v Speaker 2>the biggest security failure to happen in Israel in fifty years,

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<v Speaker 2>and it left Israeli generals, Israeli politicians very eager to

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<v Speaker 2>try and re establish the terrens across the region, and

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<v Speaker 2>arguably they have done that over the past couple of weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>What impact will he's killing head on domestic politics in

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<v Speaker 1>Israel and particularly on Benjamin Now he's understanding it.

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<v Speaker 2>Will help his political standing, which would have been unthinkable

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<v Speaker 2>almost a year ago. After October seventh, To imagine that Nataniel,

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<v Speaker 2>who was at the time the most I think unpopular

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<v Speaker 2>prime minister in Israeli history to imagine that his fortunes

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<v Speaker 2>could recover, but they are recovering. He for months now,

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<v Speaker 2>I think, has been desperate to show Israelis that something

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<v Speaker 2>is going well on one of the fronts on which

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<v Speaker 2>Israel is fighting, and he hasn't been able to make

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<v Speaker 2>that case. In Gaza. The war has ground into a stalemate.

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<v Speaker 1>There.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel has not managed to achieve either of its stated goals,

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<v Speaker 2>the total defeat of Hamas or the return of one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and one Israeli hostages who are still being held

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza. Hasn't accomplished either of those things so far,

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<v Speaker 2>and the Israeli public, according to poll after poll, thinks

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<v Speaker 2>that Israel is not winning the war in Gaza and

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<v Speaker 2>is very pessimistic about the government's policy in Gaza. So politically,

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<v Speaker 2>for Nataniel, what's happened over the past couple of weeks

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<v Speaker 2>is a chance to shift the focus somewhere else and

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<v Speaker 2>to suddenly make it seem as if Israel is winning,

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<v Speaker 2>or Israel is at least making progress. It's achieving successes

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<v Speaker 2>rather than security failures. And so I think when we

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<v Speaker 2>start to see opinion polls over the next couple of

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<v Speaker 2>weeks of how Israelis would vote if there was another election.

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<v Speaker 2>I think those calls will show that this is probably helping.

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<v Speaker 1>That's in the Alpolitically, we have a situation now where

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<v Speaker 1>there doesn't seem to be any end to conflict in site.

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<v Speaker 1>We have over half a million people now this is

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<v Speaker 1>placed in Lebanon. We have tens of thousands dead in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>Where does all this end in terms of there being

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<v Speaker 1>a potential resolution to these ongoing conflicts.

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<v Speaker 2>No one has an answer for that yet. Unfortunately. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>I think Israelis are exuberant right now because of these

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<v Speaker 2>operational successes tactical successes in Lebanon over the past couple

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<v Speaker 2>of weeks. But the strategic aim of all of this

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<v Speaker 2>for Israel is to create conditions where sixty thousand people

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<v Speaker 2>feel safe going back to their homes in northern Israel

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<v Speaker 2>on the border with Lebanon. And it's difficult to see

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<v Speaker 2>how military action, even continued military action like we've seen

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<v Speaker 2>over the past couple of weeks, is going to remove

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<v Speaker 2>the threat of Hezibala firing rockets or perhaps carrying out

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<v Speaker 2>a ground attack on northern Lebanon. That is what sent

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<v Speaker 2>sixty thousand people fleeing to other parts of the country,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm not sure how the Israeli government creates an

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<v Speaker 2>enduring change in that dynamic just through military force. Similarly,

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza, Netaneo is still not interested in a cease fire.

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<v Speaker 2>His coalition is not interested in a cease fire. Some

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<v Speaker 2>members of his coalition still harbor the dream that Israel

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<v Speaker 2>will occupy Gaza forever, it will rebuild the settlements that

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<v Speaker 2>were dismantled in two thousand and five, and Netaniel doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>want to cross his coalition, and so he is pursuing

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<v Speaker 2>this sort of forever war in Gaza that looks like

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<v Speaker 2>it will doom the remaining hostages who are there. In fairness,

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<v Speaker 2>the leader of Hamasi yes Sinwar also not interested in

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<v Speaker 2>a ceasefire. He thinks prolonged war is going to help

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<v Speaker 2>him by damaging Israel's international standing, damaging Israel's internal cohesion,

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<v Speaker 2>and has a blat in Lebanon. We should say it

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<v Speaker 2>is still firing rockets at northern Israel, even though it

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<v Speaker 2>has taken these enormous blows over the past couple of

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<v Speaker 2>weeks that certainly look like it's losing the war, and

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.240
<v Speaker 2>this war is not accomplishing anything for it. It continues

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<v Speaker 2>to fire rockets. So all of the parties to this

0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 2>conflict are continuing with open ended conflict even though they're

0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 2>not sure how that conflict is going to achieve any

0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:33.600
<v Speaker 2>of their strategic games in the long term.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg, thanks for Jaton.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you.

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Also in the use today, SPICEX has sent in a

0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:03.440
<v Speaker 1>to rescue two astronauts stranded on the International Space Station,

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 1>which Wilmore and Sunny Williams were expected to be gone

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:08.840
<v Speaker 1>a week when they signed up for Boeing's first to

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.000
<v Speaker 1>astronaut flight, but they were unable to return due to

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 1>safety concerns. When they finally do return in February, they

0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 1>will have spent more than eight months in space. And

0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.040
<v Speaker 1>there were almost twenty three hundred assaults at New South

0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.600
<v Speaker 1>Wales schools in the year to June. New figure show

0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.600
<v Speaker 1>the data released by the New South Wales Bureau of

0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:31.200
<v Speaker 1>Crime Statistics and Research points to her rise in intimidation,

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 1>stalking and harassment incidents, with the rise and assaults spiking

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.680
<v Speaker 1>since the pandemic. While there has been a sharp increase

0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:41.760
<v Speaker 1>in reports of assault in the past decade, data show's

0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:46.320
<v Speaker 1>use of drugs and school grounds has dropped. I'm Daniel James.

0:15:46.320 --> 0:16:03.640
<v Speaker 1>This is seven AM. Thanks for listening.