1
00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,240
Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we

2
00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,680
Speaker 1: ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

3
00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:14,319
Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and every Monday morning we're joined by

4
00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,639
Speaker 1: economist Stephen Coucoulis to look at the week ahead. You'll

5
00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:19,840
Speaker 1: find him at the kook dot com and on x

6
00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:23,159
Speaker 1: using the handle the Kirk Stephen. Good morning, top of

7
00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 1: the morning to you, Michael. A massive week coming up

8
00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:30,080
Speaker 1: this week. Let's start with GDP because that is really

9
00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:32,199
Speaker 1: the big figure that I suppose everyone's going to be

10
00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,639
Speaker 1: watching at a big picture level, headline level. What are

11
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,440
Speaker 1: we expecting and what would actually be a surprise?

12
00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,839
Speaker 2: Do you think, look, we've probably gonna get confirmation that

13
00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,720
Speaker 2: the economy did recover. These are December quarter numbers, so

14
00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,120
Speaker 2: some people might say, look, they're a bit of ancient history,

15
00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,240
Speaker 2: but they do build the foundations for kicking off twenty

16
00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,640
Speaker 2: twenty six even though their December quarter. What was the

17
00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,560
Speaker 2: momentum on bottom line economic growth through twenty twenty five?

18
00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,640
Speaker 2: And I think it's fair to say that the broad

19
00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,800
Speaker 2: concen instance is that we go to get a reasonable

20
00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:07,120
Speaker 2: result something around zero point seven percent GDP growth for

21
00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,080
Speaker 2: the December quarter, which would lift your annual growth rate

22
00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,679
Speaker 2: to a round about two point three two point four

23
00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,840
Speaker 2: percent depends on revisions. These numbers are often revised, all

24
00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,640
Speaker 2: the histories revived, so we're a little bit in the

25
00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,080
Speaker 2: dark on some of the actual numbers. But it'll be

26
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,480
Speaker 2: a situation where the economy is growing at close to

27
00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,119
Speaker 2: two and a half percent put it that way, which

28
00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,040
Speaker 2: is at or even slightly above our potential GDP growth pace.

29
00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:36,760
Speaker 2: It'll be the strongest number since the pandemic. And importantly,

30
00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,760
Speaker 2: the subset of indicators within the GDP result or things

31
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:45,319
Speaker 2: like productivity, and I'm expecting to see a second or

32
00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:49,720
Speaker 2: even a third quarter of a pickup in productivity, stronger growth,

33
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,600
Speaker 2: softening employment. So again, I don't want to get excited

34
00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,600
Speaker 2: over one or two quarters of productivity.

35
00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:56,440
Speaker 3: We need a decade of productivity growth.

36
00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,840
Speaker 2: But the proverbial green church on productivity could be showing

37
00:01:59,920 --> 00:02:01,640
Speaker 2: up up in these GDP numbers as well.

38
00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, we need it to be heading in the right direction,

39
00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:06,960
Speaker 1: don't we. And so which part of the breakdown do

40
00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,040
Speaker 1: you go to kind of which is the one that's

41
00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:13,240
Speaker 1: got the most potential for I suppose surprises. We're talking

42
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,480
Speaker 1: kind of household consumption, business investment, government spending. What's the

43
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:17,840
Speaker 1: part that really grabs you.

44
00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,600
Speaker 2: Look, it depends on the cycle. This one now, the

45
00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,520
Speaker 2: one that we're going to be getting on Wednesday, it'll

46
00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:26,640
Speaker 2: be the private public split. You know, we've had this

47
00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:30,920
Speaker 2: debate over recent times. Was the surge in government spending

48
00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,639
Speaker 2: and stimulus the driver of these inflation risks? And there's

49
00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:35,920
Speaker 2: a legitimate debate to be had there, of course. So

50
00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,799
Speaker 2: the issue for me, and I think for the Reserve

51
00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,400
Speaker 2: Bank too will be to what extent is public sector

52
00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,000
Speaker 2: demand calling a little bit after having been very strong,

53
00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:50,600
Speaker 2: No question, the recent indicators point to some slowing and

54
00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,919
Speaker 2: even last week we saw some construction numbers that show

55
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,560
Speaker 2: that public sector construction is starting to fall a little bit.

56
00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,440
Speaker 2: So that should be reflected in the numbers and the

57
00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:03,320
Speaker 2: private set, which is you and me, household spending, business

58
00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,400
Speaker 2: investment cap X. It's things like the net export sector.

59
00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,919
Speaker 2: How well is our export industry doing. It's probably doing

60
00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,440
Speaker 2: quite well given the trade numbers that we've been seeing

61
00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:14,280
Speaker 2: in some of the profits from the big mining companies,

62
00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,320
Speaker 2: that we're probably going to be getting that evidence that

63
00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,760
Speaker 2: it is private demand that's hotting up public demand is

64
00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,840
Speaker 2: calling off, and the export sector, yeah, doing pretty well.

65
00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,919
Speaker 1: We've talked in the past about per capita GDP. How

66
00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,280
Speaker 1: important is that distinction right now?

67
00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:38,160
Speaker 2: It's a really important one because that's the improvement in

68
00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,600
Speaker 2: individual living standards that matters. Because if you've got population

69
00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,520
Speaker 2: growth of one and a half percent GDPs one and

70
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:47,080
Speaker 2: a half percent individually, we're all just treading water basically

71
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,680
Speaker 2: speaking for sort of average out the numbers there. So

72
00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,400
Speaker 2: what we need to see, and this is why per

73
00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,760
Speaker 2: capita GDP is so important. When it was going backwards,

74
00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,880
Speaker 2: it's why we were in pain. So con consume the sentiment.

75
00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,520
Speaker 2: It's been so weak for so long. We want to

76
00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,720
Speaker 2: see that per capita GDP lifting. That's a sign of

77
00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:08,880
Speaker 2: improving well being for each of us in an individual basis.

78
00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,440
Speaker 2: So if we're getting this situation later this week where

79
00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,400
Speaker 2: we've got confirmation that GDP growth, let's just call it

80
00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,800
Speaker 2: two point three percent, I'll be very conservative. Population growth

81
00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:19,640
Speaker 2: we know is about one and a half percent at

82
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:21,800
Speaker 2: the moment, immigration and a little bit of natural increase,

83
00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,279
Speaker 2: we're going to be having per capita GDP at around

84
00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,360
Speaker 2: about point eight point nine percent and growing again and

85
00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,320
Speaker 2: just again, I don't get excited over one or two

86
00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,039
Speaker 2: quarters data because we've got a long way to catch

87
00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:36,240
Speaker 2: up from that period of weakness. But yeah, the turning

88
00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:38,719
Speaker 2: point appears to be coming through. And I think the

89
00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,480
Speaker 2: Governor Michelle Bullock at her fireside chat last week SINT

90
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,840
Speaker 2: have noted that, yeah, the economy is okay, that they're

91
00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,760
Speaker 2: worried about inflation. It's a little too high, yep, unambiguously,

92
00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:52,279
Speaker 2: but if you look at growth, jobs, unemployment rate, things

93
00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 2: are okay.

94
00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:53,760
Speaker 3: Yeah.

95
00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,840
Speaker 1: It was an interesting fireside chat, wasn't it. And I

96
00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:58,800
Speaker 1: did want to get to your take on that because

97
00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:01,440
Speaker 1: it was like we learned a lot more from that

98
00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:05,920
Speaker 1: than we do from say the post meeting press conferences

99
00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,480
Speaker 1: and that commentary around that, yes, inflation is a little

100
00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,719
Speaker 1: bit high, but it's not rampant of it's not out

101
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:17,360
Speaker 1: of control, and really emphasizing just how hard the job

102
00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 1: is for the Reserve Bank Board at the moment to

103
00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 1: try and figure out the correct course of action.

104
00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,279
Speaker 2: That's right, and I think in a way we should

105
00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,520
Speaker 2: give the Reserve Bank, or look at the Reserve Bank

106
00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,640
Speaker 2: from two different scorecards. They've got the dual mandate inflation

107
00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,200
Speaker 2: and the labor market full employment. On the full employment front,

108
00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:35,680
Speaker 2: they're getting an eight and a half or nine out

109
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,880
Speaker 2: of ten. They're doing really well. Unemployments low and jobs

110
00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,039
Speaker 2: are still being created. On the inflation side, at the

111
00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,120
Speaker 2: moment of five out of ten, you know, they got

112
00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 2: it lower.

113
00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:45,520
Speaker 3: It started to wedge up.

114
00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,360
Speaker 2: But as the governor was saying, and this is evident

115
00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,000
Speaker 2: in the January inflation numbers which came out last week

116
00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,800
Speaker 2: as well, there is still what we call it a

117
00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,440
Speaker 2: legacy or a hangover of some of these what we

118
00:05:56,480 --> 00:06:01,240
Speaker 2: call administered prices increasing. The electricity prices are up thirty

119
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:05,120
Speaker 2: two percent through the year. That is merely the unwind

120
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,760
Speaker 2: of those subsidies that were being paid by the state

121
00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,400
Speaker 2: and of the federal government as well. So some of

122
00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:13,080
Speaker 2: those prices the RBA is not going to hike because

123
00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:17,520
Speaker 2: electricity substies are coming to an end. So she's signaling that, yeah, inflation,

124
00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,120
Speaker 2: we don't like it at being three points something.

125
00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:22,200
Speaker 3: We want it to be two and a half.

126
00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,000
Speaker 2: But it's not accelerating any further than that sort of

127
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,599
Speaker 2: uncomfortableness that we saw at the end of last year.

128
00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,120
Speaker 1: Okay mentioned that it's a bumper week this week. One

129
00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 1: of the things that we're getting this week household spending.

130
00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,320
Speaker 1: What a consumer's feeling? Are cautious? Are we spooked by

131
00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 1: the rate hike? Are we spooked by the talk of

132
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,400
Speaker 1: more to come? Are we're tightening our belts? What do

133
00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:44,760
Speaker 1: you think?

134
00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,480
Speaker 2: Look, as I mentioned GDP's December quarter, this is where

135
00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,400
Speaker 2: these monthly what we call partial indicators of the economy,

136
00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 2: and household spending is certainly one of the top tier indicators.

137
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,160
Speaker 2: This is for January, So it's that post Christmas New

138
00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,800
Speaker 2: Year's sales period that's coming through in the numbers. So

139
00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,920
Speaker 2: what did we do in January? Did we spend all

140
00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,240
Speaker 2: of our money at the sales, the Black Friday sales

141
00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,600
Speaker 2: and pre Christmas? So we sort of suffering the fear

142
00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 2: of rate hikes. Markets looking for a little bit of

143
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,400
Speaker 2: an increase, about a point three percent increase in household

144
00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,280
Speaker 2: spending in January following a minus point four in December,

145
00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,480
Speaker 2: and that will be sort of signaling that household spending

146
00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,280
Speaker 2: is is akin in the groove, not too hot, not

147
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,280
Speaker 2: too cold, and that we are spending at a level

148
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,320
Speaker 2: that's consistent with reasonable economic growth.

149
00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,840
Speaker 1: How much of spending and I'm just curious as to

150
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,160
Speaker 1: how much you can read into the data, do we

151
00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:40,920
Speaker 1: know kind of how much of it is coming from, say,

152
00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:46,840
Speaker 1: higher income households and weather than those lower income households

153
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:48,720
Speaker 1: are the ones that are being more wary. So so

154
00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,760
Speaker 1: these figures obviously from January. At that time there was

155
00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,280
Speaker 1: a lot of talk about the potential for rate hikes

156
00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,680
Speaker 1: coming quite soon. So are those households going to be

157
00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,760
Speaker 1: the ones that put the brakes on spending faster? And

158
00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,720
Speaker 1: it's higher income households that are still happy to go

159
00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:07,040
Speaker 1: out and buy things and go to cafes and restaurants

160
00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 1: and the like.

161
00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 2: We don't get the split from the Bureau of Statistics

162
00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,480
Speaker 2: on that, but Commworth Bank when they put out their

163
00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 2: profits every six months do disaggregate their own internal data,

164
00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,800
Speaker 2: and given how big they are, they're probably a very

165
00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,600
Speaker 2: good representation of what's happening to consumers in the economy

166
00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,000
Speaker 2: as a whole. And some of their numbers are suggesting

167
00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:29,880
Speaker 2: that it's older folk who probably have got a lot

168
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,640
Speaker 2: of wealth tied up in their house. They bought their

169
00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,360
Speaker 2: house many years ago for a song. It's now worth

170
00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,000
Speaker 2: a fortune. They've probably paid it off. They've probably got

171
00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,640
Speaker 2: decent money in superannuation. They're the ones that are still

172
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:44,880
Speaker 2: spending both on essentials and discretionary items. Younger folk were

173
00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,360
Speaker 2: starting to pick up spending through the course of last

174
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,280
Speaker 2: year on the back of rate cuts and what was

175
00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,199
Speaker 2: a period of higher wages growth, but that might be changing.

176
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,720
Speaker 2: So it is important to see who is spending, who's

177
00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,600
Speaker 2: sort of hunkering down, who's adding to their savings, and

178
00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,440
Speaker 2: that intergenerational thing that you alluded to, I think still

179
00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:06,480
Speaker 2: fairly clear from non Bureau of Statistic data where older

180
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:08,560
Speaker 2: folk with plenty of assets are the ones that are

181
00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 2: getting out there spending, going on cruises and the holidays,

182
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,200
Speaker 2: and the young folk are paying off their mortgage, paying

183
00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:17,200
Speaker 2: their childcare, and doing all these other things that are

184
00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,640
Speaker 2: essential spending rather than that discretionary spending.

185
00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,400
Speaker 1: Okay, and that would just be a fairly traditional demographic split, right,

186
00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,280
Speaker 1: That doesn't change so much from year to year. That

187
00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,959
Speaker 1: is just the way of life, right.

188
00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,559
Speaker 2: Not really, there was some reversal of that during the pandemic. Interestingly,

189
00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,400
Speaker 2: when interest rates were near zero, because a lot of

190
00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:39,520
Speaker 2: old folk have their term deposits, they were getting zero

191
00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,240
Speaker 2: point one percent on their term deposits, and young folk

192
00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,959
Speaker 2: were basking in the glory of having only paying sort

193
00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:46,880
Speaker 2: of two or two and a half percent on their mortgage.

194
00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,200
Speaker 2: So even though we couldn't go out and celebrate because

195
00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,520
Speaker 2: we were locked down half the time during the pandemic,

196
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,080
Speaker 2: there was a slight change back then. So it is

197
00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:58,200
Speaker 2: really interstright sensitive. And when interestrates are high and rising,

198
00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,640
Speaker 2: old folk are actually i mighte say, dancing in the streets,

199
00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,079
Speaker 2: but they're feeling a whole lot better. And it's the

200
00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:06,040
Speaker 2: young folk that suffer when rates are cut aggressively. The

201
00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,520
Speaker 2: young folks join the party and say, oh, we're saving

202
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,560
Speaker 2: a few hundred bucks on a hour monthly repayments. Let's

203
00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:11,680
Speaker 2: go out and do some nice things.

204
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 1: Okay, we are nearly out of time, but I do

205
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,200
Speaker 1: want to ask you about building approvals. This is a

206
00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:22,560
Speaker 1: forward looking number in simple terms. Why does it matter?

207
00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,200
Speaker 1: Is it essentially kind of tomorrow's construction activity. We are

208
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:27,520
Speaker 1: getting an insight into that today.

209
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,040
Speaker 2: It is tomorrow's construction spot on. That's exactly what these

210
00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,600
Speaker 2: building approvals numbers are. Anyone who's built a house from

211
00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:36,800
Speaker 2: scratch or is thinking about it, you've got to get

212
00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:39,960
Speaker 2: local council to approve what you're doing to it. So

213
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,800
Speaker 2: that's what building approvals are it's today's empty block of

214
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:47,320
Speaker 2: land tomorrow's established dwelling or high rose apartments. Of course,

215
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:51,520
Speaker 2: if you're a big developer, now this is really important.

216
00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,800
Speaker 2: On the supply side of housing. We know the demand

217
00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,720
Speaker 2: sides driven by population growth and negative gearing and investor

218
00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:04,360
Speaker 2: demand first hobias. That's well understood. But supply is new

219
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,360
Speaker 2: dwellings being built, and this is where the government's got

220
00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,800
Speaker 2: its target that it amounts to well eighteen months ago.

221
00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:10,319
Speaker 3: I think it was.

222
00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,800
Speaker 2: Now for one point two million new dwellings to be

223
00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:16,560
Speaker 2: built in the five years to twenty twenty nine. We've

224
00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,200
Speaker 2: got about a year and a bit stata. They are

225
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 2: not going to achieve that, they're going to fall well behind.

226
00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:26,080
Speaker 2: But it's still important to acknowledge that building approvals have

227
00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,360
Speaker 2: been trending higher, not as high as we would like.

228
00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,400
Speaker 2: Like all econmas, I want more of the good things,

229
00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,320
Speaker 2: so I'm hoping to see an uptick in building approvals.

230
00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,359
Speaker 2: They're very volatile month to month. It depends on apartments

231
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,880
Speaker 2: being built inevitably in the big capital city. So if

232
00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,920
Speaker 2: there's a slab of five hundred apartments being approved in

233
00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:45,960
Speaker 2: Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane or Adelaide. Whatever the numbers

234
00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,280
Speaker 2: jump up, next month, it jumps back down. So we

235
00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,880
Speaker 2: had a big down last month. We're looking for about

236
00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,040
Speaker 2: a plus five percent or more and that would be

237
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,520
Speaker 2: confirming that uptrend where we're going to be building more buildings.

238
00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,480
Speaker 2: We're going to be adding to supply. But of course,

239
00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,439
Speaker 2: as we know, it takes I don't know a year

240
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,679
Speaker 2: or eighteen months from an empty block of land to

241
00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 2: turn into a dwelling that people can occupy, so there's

242
00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:09,760
Speaker 2: still this lag effect from building approvals being a completed dwelling.

243
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,040
Speaker 1: You are in for a very busy week, Steven, enjoy it.

244
00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:15,400
Speaker 3: I love it. Thank you very much.

245
00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,000
Speaker 1: That was econdom As Stephen coo Coolest, better known as

246
00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,000
Speaker 1: the Kook. You can find him at the Kook dot

247
00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:21,800
Speaker 1: com t H T E k o u k dot

248
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,079
Speaker 1: com and follow him on X using the handle of

249
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 1: the Kook Michael Thompson. And this is Fear and Greed

250
00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:27,000
Speaker 1: Q and a