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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A where we

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Speaker 1: ask an answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics, and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and today Larry Ellison last week became

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Speaker 1: the richest person in the world. It was only very

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Speaker 1: brief before Elon Musk regained the top spot. Now we

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Speaker 1: obviously know a lot about the companies behind the world's

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Speaker 1: richest people Elon Musk and Tesla, Jeff Bezos and Amazon,

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Speaker 1: Bill Gates and Microsoft. Larry Ellison's Oracle has been around

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Speaker 1: for decades, but it isn't exactly the household name that

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Speaker 1: the others are. So today we're going to find out

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Speaker 1: the Oracle story. White share price shot up forty three

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Speaker 1: percent in just one day, adding one hundred billion US

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Speaker 1: dollars to its founder's wealth. Remember this is general information only.

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Speaker 1: You should seek advice before making investment decisions. Josh Gilbert

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Speaker 1: is a market analyst at e Toro. Josh, Welcome back

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Q and A. Thanks having me about Michael.

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Speaker 1: How are we going?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 1: This is a great story, isn't it, Because Oracle is

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Speaker 1: one of those companies that has it has been around

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Speaker 1: forever and then it just blasted into the headlines last week.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with basically the background, the nuts and bolts,

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Speaker 1: what Oracle actually does.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm trying to think how to explain

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Speaker 2: this in the simplest way, right because when we think

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Speaker 2: about tech companies sometimes it can you know, almost alienate people.

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Speaker 2: But they sort of specialize in database software and sort

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Speaker 2: of cloud services for businesses. I think the easiest way

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Speaker 2: to explain it is to think about like a secure

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Speaker 2: digital filing cabinet where you know, these big businesses, airlines, banks, hospitals,

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Speaker 2: et cetera sort of store all of their critical information.

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Speaker 2: It's almost like the engine room of a business. So

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Speaker 2: it's not consumer facing like your apples, your Googles, or

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Speaker 2: even Meta for example. It's sort of the behind the

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Speaker 2: scenes backbone for organization to host applications and data and

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Speaker 2: all on its own cloud platform, which we'll probably mention

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Speaker 2: the word cloud quite a lot, I'd imagine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's clearly then evolved significant cur over a

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Speaker 1: long period of time because it was founded in the seventies,

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Speaker 1: wasn't it, And then I mean the cloud certainly wasn't

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Speaker 1: around back then, and so it has evolved enormously over

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Speaker 1: that time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's interesting you mentioned that because they were

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Speaker 2: actually a little bit late to the cloud party. You know. Again,

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Speaker 2: a business has been around for sort of years, as

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Speaker 2: I say, made its name for sort of database software,

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Speaker 2: but you've got to sort of reinvent yourself in the

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Speaker 2: tech world. A big part of why it is still

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Speaker 2: where it is today is through acquisitions. So over the

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Speaker 2: years it snapped up some big companies. A big one

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Speaker 2: was Sun Microsystems, so that gave Oracle control of Java.

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Speaker 2: Might have been, you know, something that we've heard of

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Speaker 2: a lot before. And also net Suite, a big, big

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Speaker 2: name player in cloud. But as I say, a bit

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Speaker 2: late to the cloud party. Amazon, Google and Microsoft. They're

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Speaker 2: the dominant players in cloud and got their early stole

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Speaker 2: lot of the market share, but they have slowly ticked

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Speaker 2: along with its sort of database and software businesses, and

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Speaker 2: I think that has helped them lay the groundwork for

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Speaker 2: this sort of push into cloud computing. That sort of

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Speaker 2: knowing it for now. And we're obviously seeing that huge

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Speaker 2: demand for AI and that means companies need massive computing power.

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Speaker 2: So Oracle itself has got a great relationship with Nvideo.

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Speaker 2: Larry Ellison, you know, the founder and co CEO. He's

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Speaker 2: you know, got a really really good track record of

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Speaker 2: making great relationships in business, and then video is obviously

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Speaker 2: one of them. So it's got access to the chips

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Speaker 2: necessary to sort of power the hungriness of AI these days.

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Speaker 2: So exactly, Osmond, it's built itself and positioned itself for

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Speaker 2: high performance computing, which is where we are today.

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Speaker 1: And it's interesting then that you said that it was

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Speaker 1: a little bit late to the party. It felt like

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Speaker 1: maybe it caught up a bit last week. What was

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Speaker 1: last week? That that was some earnings results and clearly

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Speaker 1: the market loved what they heard.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it's actually interesting because the earning results actually

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Speaker 2: missed estimates. So that was the sort of first point.

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Speaker 2: But it comes down to showing how much focus goes

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Speaker 2: on to sort of guidance and and sort of future commentary. Right, share,

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Speaker 2: as you said, jumped over forty percent in one day.

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Speaker 2: It's best day in over sort of thirty years, and

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Speaker 2: the trigger came from this sort of new cloud deals

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Speaker 2: in AI space, secured massive cloud contracts with Google and

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Speaker 2: open AI. AI is obviously the creator of chat GPT

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Speaker 2: and that is a massive contract Open AI set to

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Speaker 2: buy over three hundred billion dollars worth of cloud computing

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Speaker 2: from Oracle over the next five years, and that's one

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Speaker 2: of the biggest cloud deals we've ever seen. And that

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Speaker 2: then translates into and I'm going to say this with

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Speaker 2: you know, verted commas here potentially huge growth. You know,

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Speaker 2: they said they expect one hundred and forty four billion

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Speaker 2: dollars in cloud infrastructure revenue by twenty thirty the fiscal

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Speaker 2: year for context. That's up from ten point three billion

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Speaker 2: that was in fiscal twenty twenty five, that's the year

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Speaker 2: they've just finished. So huge, huge growth over a five

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Speaker 2: year window. But it comes, as we say, is there's

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Speaker 2: this race to secure computing power and it's basically put

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Speaker 2: them on the map as a bit of a core

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Speaker 2: player now in the AI race.

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Speaker 1: Canna continue in that?

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Speaker 2: Okay?

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Speaker 1: So I mean and these are huge numbers that we're

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Speaker 1: talking about, and as you say, they've got a very

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Speaker 1: type relationship between Nvideo and Oracle Open Ai obviously major

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Speaker 1: major customer. Then as well, there is a lot going

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Speaker 1: on between all of these companies. How much is are

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Speaker 1: just getting inflated? Is there a risk that this is

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Speaker 1: all a bubble? And I know that's a big question

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Speaker 1: for you to answer right now.

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Speaker 2: I think, look from a perspective of what I said,

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Speaker 2: there are the inverted commers. I think it depends on

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Speaker 2: whether they can capitalize on this AI driven demand because

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Speaker 2: management is very optimistic. They've given those huge forecasts, but

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Speaker 2: you know, they've also said this is just the beginning.

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Speaker 2: There's more to come, hinting at sort of a huge

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Speaker 2: order backlog. As well. They're involved into massive projects, you know,

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Speaker 2: the biggest one soft bank, the Stargate Initiative, initiative, a

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Speaker 2: massive AI infrastructure project, so when they're in there, they're

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Speaker 2: part of you know, this picks and shovels of the

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Speaker 2: AI race. So from that perspective, there's real substance behind

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Speaker 2: this move higher because those contracts can translate into huge

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Speaker 2: earnings growth. At the same time, building all that infrastructure

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Speaker 2: is very expensive as well, so we're going to see

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Speaker 2: capital expenditure rise. Also, what I would say is there

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Speaker 2: is always that level of caution right when we do

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Speaker 2: see that stock mover as high as it essentially has,

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Speaker 2: especially on promises, because as I say, it missed revenue

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Speaker 2: and earning's estimates this quarter. You know, You've got to

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Speaker 2: think of it as those expectations are now sky high.

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Speaker 2: So if the AI demand doesn't grow as fast as

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Speaker 2: maybe anticipated, or those competitors Amazon, Microsoft, Google, they fight

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Speaker 2: back and win some of those cloud deals, you know,

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Speaker 2: it could disappoint. But I think, to be clear, I

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Speaker 2: think the AI demand is going to continue. Right. This

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Speaker 2: is the biggest technology revolution we've seen in decades, So

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's a bubble at all, and we

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Speaker 2: aren't seeing its valuation at anything ridiculously crazy. So the

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Speaker 2: risk here, though, is just execution. If they don't execute,

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Speaker 2: then that's when you know shares will come under pressure.

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Speaker 1: What about another risk you did mention before about Larry Ellison,

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Speaker 1: who has been very good over a very long period

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Speaker 1: of time at developing great relationships. He is the co founder,

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Speaker 1: he is the co CEO, the chair of the business.

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Speaker 1: He's also eighty one years old. How much of Oracle's

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Speaker 1: success and its future is tied to him?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's hard to separate him from Oracle.

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Speaker 2: You know, big driving force behind the company since day one,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's a little bit like how we

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Speaker 2: think of the story of Tesla and Musk these days.

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Speaker 2: Interesting He's got actually a very good relationship with Elon Musk,

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Speaker 2: but he's sort of known as the maverick. He you know,

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Speaker 2: this latest pivot to AI is sort of something that

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Speaker 2: he's driven. He's been the one pushing for the massive

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Speaker 2: investments in data centers and cloud infrastructure, and I think

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Speaker 2: the fact he's still so hands on and driving these

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Speaker 2: deal shows he's a huge part of the story. He

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Speaker 2: also owns still about forty percent of the stock, so

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Speaker 2: you know, his wealth and that incentive to keep the

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Speaker 2: company successful is is sort of tied to you know,

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Speaker 2: Oracle's performance, as we say, went to sort of become

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Speaker 2: the richest man for a little period there. So I

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Speaker 2: think that there is a co CEO, there, Saffrakats, and

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Speaker 2: ultimately the day to day operations don't necessarily rely on

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Speaker 2: Larry Ellison alone, but there is no doubt that his

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Speaker 2: success is strongly linked to the you know, his leadership

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Speaker 2: and his legacy. But I think what they're doing now

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Speaker 2: is they are building that framework to you know, ultimately

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Speaker 2: have a legacy plan in place, you know, due to

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Speaker 2: sort of his age, so there is all that always

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Speaker 2: that risk, but I think they're laying the foundations and

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Speaker 2: the groundwork to sort of have something, you know, bigger,

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Speaker 2: you know, past Larry Ellison's sort of legacy really here,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, he has been a real key part of

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Speaker 2: their success.

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Speaker 1: Where does it sit it then, compared to the Magnificent Seven?

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Speaker 1: Obviously Oracle is a bit smaller than the smallest of

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Speaker 1: the Magnificent Seven being Tesla. But is there a chance

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Speaker 1: that we could end up being talking about the Great Eight?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, potentially we change, right. We used to call them

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Speaker 2: the fang Stocks, and that had Netflix included in there,

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Speaker 2: so it's changed over the years. I think the biggest

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Speaker 2: thing is it's not a household name, right If you

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Speaker 2: ask most people, they'd probably know most of the mag seven.

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Speaker 2: Not everyone will probably know Hi Video, but we probably

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Speaker 2: know the rest. Oracle just isn't a household name. But

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Speaker 2: in the enter as well a Titan. They are outperforming

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Speaker 2: the mag seven this year. It's up over eighty percent.

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Speaker 2: Meta is the closest performer, up around thirty three percent,

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Speaker 2: So you know, it's above them right now. But I

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Speaker 2: think it's certainly knocking on the door of that elite group.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's nearing in on that sort of trillion

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Speaker 2: dollar threshold. Puts it in the league, as you say,

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Speaker 2: close to sort of Meta and Tesla there in terms

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Speaker 2: of sort of valuation. But I think if we look

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Speaker 2: at those three names, specifically, Amazon, Microsoft and Google, they're

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Speaker 2: the dominant three in cloud. You know, Oracle probably sits

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Speaker 2: in just behind them. If Oracle can keep landing those

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Speaker 2: big A ideals, if it can materially close the gap,

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Speaker 2: I think there's you know, certainly a question here that

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Speaker 2: they're going to be knocking on the door absolutely and

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Speaker 2: sort of asking questions of that that sort of Elite

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Speaker 2: seven if you like, just.

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Speaker 1: One last one while we're talking about the MAGS seven

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Speaker 1: alphabet owner of Google, hit a markeup cap this week

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Speaker 1: of what was it, three trillion US dollars. It's had

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Speaker 1: a massive month. Can it keep going?

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Speaker 2: I think so yeah. I think that they've got a

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Speaker 2: dominant position in search and advertising, They've got a stro

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Speaker 2: growing cloud business, and they're a leader in AI. They're

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Speaker 2: a core player in the market. I think the main

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Speaker 2: risks recently have been regulatory issues and that sort of

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Speaker 2: sheer size of the company. But one of the reasons

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Speaker 2: we've seen shares rally so much recently is that we've

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Speaker 2: had strong demand for their cloud services. Think about Gemini

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Speaker 2: and how they're integrating AI into their business. They've made

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Speaker 2: They've invested a lot of money into AI, but that's

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Speaker 2: starting to pay off thirty two percent jump in revenue

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Speaker 2: cloud revenue last quarter. And then they also had a

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Speaker 2: favorable court ruling as well, it said that they wouldn't

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Speaker 2: need to divest Google Chrome or Android's operating system. That

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Speaker 2: was a big overhang for the stock for a long time,

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Speaker 2: which is why we've seen a big rally within the

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Speaker 2: last few months since the lows we saw in April.

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Speaker 2: And as I say, traditional business is doing well right,

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Speaker 2: the Google business YouTube. It's also got really exciting ventures

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Speaker 2: like Weaimo, which is self driving cars as well. So

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Speaker 2: I absolutely do think it can, but you've got to

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Speaker 2: keep delivering. If you're getting to a size of three

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Speaker 2: trillion dollars, that sheer size means that you've got to

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Speaker 2: keep delivering. But for me, fundamentals look solid and think

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Speaker 2: it is actually still one of the cheaper tech stocks

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Speaker 2: by valuation out there right now, so I still think

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Speaker 2: it will be a bit of an attraction for investors

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Speaker 2: at current levels.

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Speaker 1: Terrific, Josh, Thank you for talking to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Michael.

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Speaker 1: That was Josh Gilbert, market analyst at DHRO. Now just

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Speaker 1: a reminder of course, please seek professional advice before making

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Speaker 1: investment decisions. Now, if you've got something that you would

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Speaker 1: like to know, then send through your question on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: Facebook or at Fearangreed dot com dot au. Ire Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and this is Fear and Greed Q and a