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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The Australian economy's speed limit, the rate that can grow

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Speaker 1: without causing inflation, has fallen to two percent, which doesn't

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Speaker 1: uber well for rate cuts. There's less than one month's

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Speaker 1: supply of jet fuel, petrol and diesel in storage across

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Speaker 1: the country, raising the risk of shortages and the improbable

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Speaker 1: renewable energy boom in the US under Donald Trump. Plus

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Common to stay in the job

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Speaker 1: for at least another three years, and reports that one

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Speaker 1: million AMEX cardholders have had their data stolen. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: the sixteenth of October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning Sean Ailner. Good morning, Michael, Sean. Something

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Speaker 1: for everyone today. The main story this morning, the Australian

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Speaker 1: economy speed limit has fallen to about two percent per

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Speaker 1: year as a result of slowing productivity, which we've been

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Speaker 1: talking about a lot about productivity challenge, and wages can

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Speaker 1: only grow at three point two percent annually without pushing

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Speaker 1: up inflation.

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Speaker 2: The estimates from Reserve Bank Chief economist Sarah Hunter came

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Speaker 2: in a speech yesterday in which she also said inflation

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Speaker 2: could be higher than first thought, which is a blow

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Speaker 2: to hopes of rate cuts. Hunter said productivity growth is

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Speaker 2: the determinant of sustainable real wages growth because it allows

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Speaker 2: wages to rise without causing inflation. Now, a speedment in

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Speaker 2: an economy is what it can grow at without triggering inflation.

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Speaker 2: Over the longer term, Australia's economy has averaged about two

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Speaker 2: and a half percent a little above that, So two

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Speaker 2: percent is actually a very low rate. The fact that

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Speaker 2: Hunter nominated the number, I think that's pretty impressive. It

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Speaker 2: also highlights just how damaging slave productivity is to our economy.

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Speaker 2: Hunters said productivity growth in Australia has slowed since the

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Speaker 2: mid two thousands, more so than in comparable economies like

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Speaker 2: the US, the United Kingdom and the European Union. She

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Speaker 2: blamed low business investment, the slow integration of new technology,

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Speaker 2: and the growth in the non market sector over the

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Speaker 2: past twenty years. The sectors with the lowest productivity growth

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Speaker 2: were mining, utilities and manufacturing. The sectors with the highest

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Speaker 2: were information media I think podcast Michael, agriculture, and professional services.

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Speaker 1: We are very productive here at Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: I can vouch for this so many shows in one day, Oh.

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Speaker 1: Goodness, unrelenting. Some would describe it sean, but so done informative.

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Speaker 1: That's the answer here, Sean. Is it Artificial intelligence? Is

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Speaker 1: AI the savior? Can it solve Australia's productivity challenges? A

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Speaker 1: lot of analysts have suggested that that's the case. Is

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Speaker 1: it actually going to fix the problem.

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Speaker 2: Theoretically it should work. It should allow us to do

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Speaker 2: more with less. That's what productivity is more.

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Speaker 1: I don't like the way you said theoretically there and

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Speaker 1: seeing it to some extent, I mean mostly in the

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Speaker 1: US rather than Australia.

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Speaker 2: Said, there's this huge investment underway in all things AI.

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Speaker 2: I think data centers, optic fiber or fiber optic, I

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Speaker 2: don't know what when it became optic fiber, then fiber

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Speaker 2: optic energy, larger language models, software, So that's all helping

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Speaker 2: productivity levels. And as I said, particularly in the US

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Speaker 2: and in fact then that country, productivity growth is running

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Speaker 2: ahead of pre COVID levels. But as always, a butt

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Speaker 2: isn't there. In economics, Sarah Hunter had a big noteive

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Speaker 2: caution yesterday. She said it will take time for AI

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Speaker 2: to emerge and disrupt It isn't something that takes three

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Speaker 2: to six months. It'll take much longer. In fact, it

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Speaker 2: could take a number of years for it to flow through.

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Speaker 2: As a result, the Reserve Bank is forecasting productivity of

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Speaker 2: just zero point seven percent a year in the near term.

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Speaker 2: That's very low. What's all that mean. It means productivity

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Speaker 2: isn't going to stop inflation pressures. Or if we had

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Speaker 2: productivity growth, you'd expect the Reserve Bank to cut into

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Speaker 2: traits more because you can afford to cut interest rates more.

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Speaker 2: That ain't going to happen anytime soon. Basically, it's why

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Speaker 2: interest rates on mortgages that you're paying now, on business

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Speaker 2: lands that you're paying now, they're not going back to

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Speaker 2: where they were a couple of years ago. And whatever

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Speaker 2: you have now, I reckon that's close to the new norm.

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Speaker 1: Okay. It's an interesting point about the length of time

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Speaker 1: that it's going to take AI to disrupt, because we've

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Speaker 1: seen kind of the early stages of it and it

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Speaker 1: has been a really bumpy process. For an instance, when

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank was replacing some call center or essentially jobs

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Speaker 1: with chatbots AI chatbots, and there were all kinds of

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Speaker 1: problems and it actually ended up creating more work, not less,

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Speaker 1: and it was not a smooth rollout at all. That

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Speaker 1: actually does entirely support what Sarah Hunter's saying that this

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Speaker 1: is going to be a long term thing rather than

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Speaker 1: a quick fix.

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Speaker 2: Right. Yeah, and technology doesn't lose jobs, It just changes

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Speaker 2: where people working and say we need more technology based jobs,

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Speaker 2: you know, or maybe it's more service based jobs, or

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Speaker 2: you know, it actually shifts where jobs are rather than

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Speaker 2: cutting jobs.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now, Sean moving away from the Reserve Bank. This

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Speaker 1: is a little bit alarming this story. Australia has less

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Speaker 1: than one month's worth of jet fuel, petrol and diesel

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Speaker 1: in storage, and as the only country failing to meet

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Speaker 1: its international treaty obligations to have enough oil in case

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Speaker 1: of a global emergency.

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Speaker 2: It means Australia may be unable to stock supermarket and

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Speaker 2: pharmacy shelves, for example, or operate freight between states in

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Speaker 2: the event of a severe global supply chain disruption. That

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Speaker 2: might seem unusual, but we had one in COVID, for example,

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Speaker 2: Australia had oil stores equivalent to just forty nine days

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Speaker 2: worth of net inputs as at July twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: According to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment

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Speaker 2: and War as reported in the fin Review. Now, based

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Speaker 2: on normal consumption rates, the Department estimated Australia had just

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Speaker 2: twenty days of jet fuel, twenty four days of diesel

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Speaker 2: in twenty eight days of petrol supplies in July. That

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Speaker 2: basically means I'll be driving my car for four weeks

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Speaker 2: u for three and a half weeks. The data only

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Speaker 2: includes stock on land and in domestic coastal waters.

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Speaker 1: Is this unusual though? This sounds Honestly, it sounds very alarming,

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Speaker 1: and I know I tend to be a little bit alarmist. Yes,

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Speaker 1: this is actually quite concerning.

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Speaker 2: It's actually not that unusual. The figure in July was

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Speaker 2: close to the record low levels reached in twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 2: so obviously not good. Far beneath the ninety day requirement

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Speaker 2: under a global treaty signed with the International Energy Agency

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Speaker 2: about fifty years ago. But Australia has been non compliant

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Speaker 2: with that ninety day obligation for more than a decade

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Speaker 2: since twenty twelve, so it actually isn't that unusual. Of

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Speaker 2: the twenty seven members who are net oil importers like Australia,

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Speaker 2: the International Energy Agency data shows they had an average

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Speaker 2: of one hundred and forty one days of import coverage

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Speaker 2: as at the middle of this year in Australia. As

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Speaker 2: we said, though, he's around that forty nine day level.

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Speaker 2: New Zealand was ninety two days. That was the next

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Speaker 2: least best or next worst, I suppose. So yeah, look,

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Speaker 2: it's not unusual, but it's probably not a total crisis yet.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, turning to local markets, how did things

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Speaker 1: go yesterday? On the ASX.

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Speaker 2: Preferbial Sea of Green Michael there's some fix two hundred

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Speaker 2: closed up one percent to just under nine thousand points.

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Speaker 2: The in fact, of the top twenty stocks, only one

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Speaker 2: Insuring QB ended lower yesterday. Healthcare Materials and Financials R

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Speaker 2: the way CSL jump more than two and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: forty SQW, Medals, Westpac, nab Rio, Tinto, They're all up

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Speaker 2: around two percent.

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Speaker 1: Good day on the market, and Sean Gold has hit

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Speaker 1: yet another record. I think we say that pretty much

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Speaker 1: every day now. It seems to be when we talk

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Speaker 1: about the proverbial sea of green. Another one that I

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Speaker 1: love is using the term the precious metal when you

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Speaker 1: run out of wayte to describe gold.

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Speaker 2: There's only three ways to describe gold, Michael gold, precious metal,

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Speaker 2: or bullion. Any listener's got otherways. Send them in because

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Speaker 2: I'm sick of using.

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Speaker 1: We will be very grateful to receive them anyway. The

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Speaker 1: latest price spike is boosted by an escalation in US

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Speaker 1: China frictions and bets at the Federal Reserve in the

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Speaker 1: US will cut interest rates twice more this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a little more on the trade will later on.

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Speaker 2: Thirty six hours ago or so, Jerome Powell, the US

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Speaker 2: Fed Reserve boss, suggested that there would be more rate

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Speaker 2: cuts coming on the back of a softer labor market

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Speaker 2: in the US that pushed bullion ie the precious metal

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Speaker 2: IE gold to a fresh peak of US and eighty

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Speaker 2: five dollars an ounce. Spots. Silver also hit another all

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Speaker 2: time high. I remember twenty four hours ago were saying

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Speaker 2: it hit its highest level since nineteen eighty keeps going

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Speaker 2: fifty three dollars and fifty four an ounce. It actulutely

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Speaker 2: tumbled later in the day amid signs a squeeze is

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Speaker 2: starting to ease. The question on gold, though, isn't worth

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Speaker 2: buying at this point now? JP Morgan, Chief executive Jamie

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Speaker 2: Diamond was asked that yesterday. Jamie Diamond's kind of the

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Speaker 2: guru of Wall Street bankers, I would say, and when

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Speaker 2: you're a Wall Street banker, right, you don't invest in

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Speaker 2: gold by nature. You want to make money, take risk

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Speaker 2: all that. He said, it's semirational to own gold. I

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Speaker 2: quote him, I'm not a gold buyer. It costs four

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Speaker 2: percent to own it.

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Speaker 1: I e.

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Speaker 2: That's what you're not earning on a bond. So if

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Speaker 2: you own it, you don't get a coup on payment.

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Speaker 2: So not a goal buyer. It costs four percent to

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Speaker 2: own it. It could easily go to five thousand US

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Speaker 2: dollars ten thousand US dollars in environments like this. Now

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Speaker 2: he's probably you know, hyperbole. There still the fact that

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Speaker 2: Jamie Diamond's saying that is relevant. Meanwhile, all prices are

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Speaker 2: at a near six month low, branch trading around sixty

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Speaker 2: two US dollars a barrel. We might not much have

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Speaker 2: much petrol left, but the good new it's not going

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Speaker 2: to cost us too much, and the Aussie dollars buying

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Speaker 2: just under sixty five US Saints Michael.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's not much of it, but what is there.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty cheap. Sean will be back at a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news Sean. Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Bank boss Matt Common is set to stay in the

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Speaker 1: job until twenty twenty nine, which would make him one

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Speaker 1: of the longest serving bank CEOs now. If the lenders

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Speaker 1: share price keeps rising, it would also make him one

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Speaker 1: of the most successful as well.

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Speaker 2: Very true. At Commonwealth Banks annual general meeting in Brisbane yesterday,

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Speaker 2: the bank's chair Paul O'Malley was re elected for his

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Speaker 2: final three year term. He said the appointment of the

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Speaker 2: next CEA will be a task for the banks next chairman.

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Speaker 2: That pushes out Common's contract until late twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 2: or early twenty twenty nine at the earliest. That will

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Speaker 2: take the tenure of Common, who turns fifty next month,

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Speaker 2: to at least a decade. Very young to have this job.

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Speaker 2: I got to say the average tenure among ASEX fifty

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Speaker 2: CEOs is about six years now. Chane Elliott left this

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Speaker 2: year after nine and a half years at A and Z.

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Speaker 2: So you know Matt Common tent. I mean, he's done

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Speaker 2: a great job. The share price has done very well

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Speaker 2: keeping that up given how highly valued it is will

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Speaker 2: be a tricky one though for the next three years.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, And speaking of banks, up next after the

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Speaker 1: show Sean is Fear and Greed, Q and A. Where

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Speaker 1: your guest today is Matt Wilson from Jarden and it's

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Speaker 1: all about banks.

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Speaker 2: It is a great chat. I say, tell me about

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth Bank, National Australian Bank A and ZED Westpac. Then

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Speaker 2: we talk about Bank of Queensland and Benny going to Adelaide.

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Speaker 2: I say, which one do you like best? Which is

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Speaker 2: best one for investors? What's it all meant for consumers?

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Speaker 2: It is a really really if you want to invest

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Speaker 2: in banks, and given the what they're twenty five thirty

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Speaker 2: percent of the market, you don't have much choice. You

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Speaker 2: must listen to this interview from Matt.

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Speaker 1: It's great, yeah, good research. It is coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show, so stick around for that one. In the meantime.

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Speaker 1: Sean more than one million American Express card holders in

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Speaker 1: Australia maybe at risk of privacy breaches, fraud and identity

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Speaker 1: theft due to systemic fail failures in the company's security controls.

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Speaker 2: Nine media newspapers are reporting the risk after obtaining a

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Speaker 2: confidential report by Australia's privacy watchdog, the Office of the

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Speaker 2: Australian Information Commissioner. The Privacy Watchdog began investigating MS after

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Speaker 2: an employee accessed his ex partner's financial transactions. American Express

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Speaker 2: disputes the findings of the report, which claimed that the

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Speaker 2: financial giant breached privacy laws, acted unreasonably, gave misleading information

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Speaker 2: during regular to investigations, and has gaping holes in its

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Speaker 2: technology security that require immediate fixing. As I repeat, MS

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Speaker 2: refutes these particularly findings. THEAIC reportedly found that American Express

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Speaker 2: was not tracking the access of employees to customer accounts

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Speaker 2: in seventy eight percent of its systems.

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Speaker 1: Sean there was a stack of corporate news around yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The collective noun for corporate news is stack. Is that right?

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Speaker 1: Well, I I was tossing up the stack or a

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Speaker 1: X tonight boat load to take your pick. Really. The

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Speaker 1: Bank of Queensland rallied after the Land of raised it

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Speaker 1: Stevidenda reported an improved annual profit helped by commercial landing,

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Speaker 1: which offset a shrinking mortgage book.

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Speaker 2: Telix Pharmaceuticals jumped seventeen percent best on the ASEX two

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Speaker 2: hundred after it upgraded its profit guidance. The chair of

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Speaker 2: cans and bottles maker Aurora says its business in France,

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Speaker 2: which it spent two point two billion on a couple

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Speaker 2: of years ago, has not met expectations. The hriable Ce

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Speaker 2: launched a probe into the Southern Cross Medias into Southern

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Speaker 2: Cross Medias proposed takeover of Seven West Media, flaking concerns

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Speaker 2: it may reduce competition for advertisers and audiences. Drone Share,

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Speaker 2: one of our favorites, launched a new software platform called

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Speaker 2: Drone Centry C two. Apparently it has a European buyer,

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Speaker 2: but its share price fell ten percent yesterday. Worst of

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Speaker 2: the ASEX two hundred and chairs and gold producer, Evolution

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Speaker 2: Mining dropped even as the company said it was on

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Speaker 2: track to deliver production and cost guidance targets.

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Speaker 1: That was the interesting said about Aurora, the cans and

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Speaker 1: bottled maker talking about the Savor glass business. Not kind

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Speaker 1: of meeting expectations. It's very good in the glass business

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Speaker 1: to be transparent.

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Speaker 2: Moving on, I was waiting for it. I could see

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Speaker 2: your face and I knew it was coming. You'd been

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Speaker 2: thinking about it, couldn't.

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Speaker 1: It was inevitable. I had to wait so long while

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Speaker 1: he went through all those other stories before I could

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Speaker 1: get back to it. Anyway. Turning to international news, now

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Speaker 1: sean hostilities between the US and China are growing, with

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump saying he might stop trade in

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Speaker 1: cooking oil with China.

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Speaker 2: He came after Beijing said it would not buy American

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Speaker 2: soy beans. Trump called that decision an economically hostile act

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Speaker 2: that pushed Wall Street lower. Just hours before the spat,

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Speaker 2: both Trump and US Trade represented Representative Jemison Greer expressed

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Speaker 2: confidence that friction would ease through ongoing trade talks. Now,

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Speaker 2: so called used cooking oil UCO has become a flat

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Speaker 2: point in the US this last year or so. Imports

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Speaker 2: used to make renewable diesel fuel has raised concerns in

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Speaker 2: American soy farmers. We're missing out on demand. So they've

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Speaker 2: been inputing the used cooking oil, using it rather than soybeans.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's not happy about that. Trump's comments came as

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Speaker 2: farmers have been suffering from low crop prices while China

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Speaker 2: has been avoiding US soybeans. Soybeans is a massive crop

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Speaker 2: in the US, so you know, a big political play there.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of the US president, here's overseeing a renewable energy

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Speaker 1: boom despite doing everything he can to roll back clean

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Speaker 1: energy tax credits and throw out roadblocks to renewable energy projects.

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Speaker 2: I reckon this will annoy him. I mean, in the

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Speaker 2: long run, what he's doing will mean fewer wind and

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Speaker 2: solar farms will be built than otherwise would have. But

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Speaker 2: right now it's triggering a boom in the sector. That's

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Speaker 2: because companies are racing to install solar panels, wind turbines,

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Speaker 2: and batteries the size of shipping containers before federal tax

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Speaker 2: tax credits expire or become harder to claim. The pipeline

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Speaker 2: is so big that analysts why we expect the US

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Speaker 2: to add a near record and potentially a record amount

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Speaker 2: of renewable energy and batteries next year, according to a

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Speaker 2: report in The New York Times. Now Bloomberg and EF

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Speaker 2: the research firm, recently raised its forecast for how much wind, solar,

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Speaker 2: and batteries the country will add next year by more

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Speaker 2: than ten percent. Many of the projects under construct well,

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Speaker 2: the projects need to be under construction by July to

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Speaker 2: be eligible for federal tax credits. To hit that deadline,

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Speaker 2: many developers they've ordered custom power transformers, which a device

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Speaker 2: is used to increase and to increase voltage more solar

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Speaker 2: panels other equipment much sooner than they normally would have.

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Speaker 2: So ironic as it sounds, donald Trump is overseeing a

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Speaker 2: renewable energy boom.

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Speaker 1: There we go. Up next Sean is Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Q and A. As we mentioned before, Matt Wilson from

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Speaker 1: Jarden all about investing in banks is coming up in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearangreed dot com todau, which is where you sign

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Speaker 1: up for the just unbelievably good Fear and Greed daily

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Speaker 1: newsletter Crazy good. Oh yeah, there is a link in

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Speaker 1: today's shown as well. If you are one of the

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Speaker 1: few who has not yet signed up, then please do

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Speaker 1: so today. Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Thursday, the sixteenth of October twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.