WEBVTT - FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) - Does it work?

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to The Australian's Money Puzzitive podcast. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>James Kirby, the World's editor at The Australian. Welcome aboard

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<v Speaker 1>everybody you know. Occasionally I'm prompted to cover an issue,

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<v Speaker 1>what you might say, like by public demand. And I

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<v Speaker 1>can tell you that this fire movement FIRI fire movement,

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<v Speaker 1>Financial independence Retire Early, that's the acronym. It's been knocking

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<v Speaker 1>on my door for some time. Comes up regularly in correspondence,

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<v Speaker 1>comes up in conversation, and I find people love this

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<v Speaker 1>idea and it's, you know, a subject of videos and books, documentaries.

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<v Speaker 2>For what it's worth, it all goes back.

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<v Speaker 1>To a book that came out in nineteen ninety two

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<v Speaker 1>called Your Money or Your Life. I think sooner or

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<v Speaker 1>later we might have a fire advocate on the show.

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<v Speaker 1>But first of all, we're going to have a look

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<v Speaker 1>at it and examine it really and to see what

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<v Speaker 1>it is and what are its pros and cons. I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to get someone who could really talk about it.

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<v Speaker 1>I've got the idea guest, of course, it's.

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<v Speaker 2>James Gerard of Financial advisor dot com.

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<v Speaker 3>How are you, James, I'm doing well. Thanks for having

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<v Speaker 3>me on James.

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<v Speaker 1>I imagine you've had people come up to you on

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<v Speaker 1>this one. And I've had people. I haven't actually asked

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<v Speaker 1>you that. Have you had people come up to you

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<v Speaker 1>and talk about it fire? The fire movement?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? I have, yes, So that said, can you help

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<v Speaker 3>me achieve fire?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? It's interesting, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 1>You get a concept that everyone you know. It's like

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<v Speaker 1>everyone already knows this, but you if you conceptualize something.

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<v Speaker 1>I was just thinking about this and I was thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about this thing in Ireland called the Wild Atlantic Way,

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<v Speaker 1>and so I grew up done around there and it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's a strip of coast and there was all these

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<v Speaker 1>towns on it and everyone they're always nice. It's fine.

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<v Speaker 1>It's all very interesting West coast of Ireland. Everyone of

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<v Speaker 1>the tourist level. But absolutely brilliant marketing ploy. Maybe a

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<v Speaker 1>decade ago or whatever, the Irish Tourism Board came up

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<v Speaker 1>with this thing, the Wild Atlantic Way.

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<v Speaker 2>It never existed, right, no, never heard of it. They

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<v Speaker 2>just let it up in a boardroom.

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<v Speaker 1>And it has been so successful and you meet people

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<v Speaker 1>and they say, I want to do that. The Wild

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<v Speaker 1>Atlantic Way. It captures people's imagination. It's the same towns,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the same roads, but it just managed to get

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<v Speaker 1>it in a way that people could have this particular

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<v Speaker 1>focused ambition, and I think Fire is very similar financial

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<v Speaker 1>independence retire early. Before we kick it around, we have

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<v Speaker 1>to explain to people what it is if they don't

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<v Speaker 1>already know, Like, could you explain the core proposal if

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<v Speaker 1>you like of what FIORI Fire is.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, I'll try to explain it. In a nutshell. It's basically,

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<v Speaker 3>most people work from the start, working between eighteen to

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<v Speaker 3>twenty five. They'll work forty or fifty years, they'll retire,

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<v Speaker 3>usually in their sixties, and then they'll live thirty or

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<v Speaker 3>forty years into retirement. That's what happens traditionally. Under fire,

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<v Speaker 3>it's well, let's accelerate the wealth accumulation park, let's work

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<v Speaker 3>for less years and enjoy more years in retirement. So

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<v Speaker 3>to do that, they're basically sacrificing enjoyment today so that

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<v Speaker 3>they can retire early and enjoy themselves later. So what

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<v Speaker 3>that means practically is that they save a lot. They

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<v Speaker 3>aim to save between fifty to seventy percent of their

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<v Speaker 3>their incomes. They try and retire between the ages of

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<v Speaker 3>thirty and fifty and in terms of how much they

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<v Speaker 3>try and save up, they go, well, I probably need

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<v Speaker 3>about twenty five times my annual expenditure, because if I

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<v Speaker 3>assume that I'm going to make four percent return on

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<v Speaker 3>my capital, I need twenty five times of my annual expenditure.

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<v Speaker 2>There.

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<v Speaker 3>So basically, say up a lot of money by being frugal,

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<v Speaker 3>by working a lot, and then retire as early as

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<v Speaker 3>you can and then live the rest of your life happy.

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<v Speaker 3>So it sounds simple in practice, but in reality, less

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<v Speaker 3>than five percent of people who in back on a

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<v Speaker 3>fire strategy actually achieve it.

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<v Speaker 1>Where did you get those numbers from James Gerard?

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<v Speaker 2>The internet?

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<v Speaker 1>Right?

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<v Speaker 3>You can trust you today?

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<v Speaker 1>As my teacher used to say, where did you get

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<v Speaker 1>those numbers from Kirby.

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<v Speaker 3>For various websites academic research papers into the fire movement?

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<v Speaker 2>I wonder we'll come back to that. At the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>It does sound low.

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<v Speaker 1>If it was half successful, then what's wrong with that?

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<v Speaker 1>If someone said I aspired to retire at fifty and

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<v Speaker 1>I didn't do it till I was fifty seven, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that's not about achievement. Assuming you want to

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<v Speaker 1>we'll working one thing. We have to challenge you some assumptions.

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<v Speaker 1>We assume, folks, that the attraction of the fire movement

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<v Speaker 1>is this notion that you can retire early and you

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<v Speaker 1>want it. It would take that as a given, and

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<v Speaker 1>then it's about how you actually construct this and what

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<v Speaker 1>you must do, and I don't want to simplify it. Delayed

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<v Speaker 1>gratification is a major part of it. Saving, real saving

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<v Speaker 1>is a major part of it. I was just looking

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<v Speaker 1>at these sort of three core principles of fire, the

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<v Speaker 1>fire number, the fire lifestyle, and this idea of protecting

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<v Speaker 1>your savings, and I'd like to just go through them.

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<v Speaker 1>James with them in this segment. So they have this

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<v Speaker 1>key thing where you must figure out how much you'd

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<v Speaker 1>need as a retired person. And in a way, again

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<v Speaker 1>I do not want to be cynical here, but in

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<v Speaker 1>a way, you don't need anything, right that is, if

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<v Speaker 1>you've got to retirement days, there's a government pension.

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<v Speaker 2>That will pay you.

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<v Speaker 1>And maybe it's about how long is a piece of string.

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<v Speaker 1>But they say, what they say to people is if

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<v Speaker 1>you want to do this, you have to assume you

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<v Speaker 1>need it for twenty five years or more, and you.

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<v Speaker 2>Needed about four.

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<v Speaker 1>You need to take out four percent of your savings

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<v Speaker 1>each year. To these are American numbers, so they are

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<v Speaker 1>oblivious if you'd like to our social security system, which

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<v Speaker 1>would give you a core amount, assuming that you qualify

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<v Speaker 1>for it or partially qualify for it. But anyway, it

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<v Speaker 1>runs on this basis that you stack up an amount

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<v Speaker 1>of money and then you take out a certain amount

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<v Speaker 1>of that each year.

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<v Speaker 2>Their number is four percent. This is the famous fire.

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<v Speaker 1>Number, right, So I'll just read out what they have here.

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<v Speaker 1>If you had a one point seventy five million, if

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<v Speaker 1>that was your fire number, right, which is the amount

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<v Speaker 1>you haven't super basically in our world, you'd have to

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<v Speaker 1>have it in the supersystem, but saved up for your retirement.

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<v Speaker 1>If you have one point seventy five million was your

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<v Speaker 1>fire number, using their four percent guideline, this would allow

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<v Speaker 1>you to withdraw twenty eight annually. Okay, So that's what

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<v Speaker 1>it would be when I say, we'll put the pension

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<v Speaker 1>to one side, but you can probably no doubt you'd

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<v Speaker 1>be able to supplement this with what your pench and

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<v Speaker 1>access is. Part I want to make is that's principle

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<v Speaker 1>in the system already, isn't it, James? If you were

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<v Speaker 1>a self funded retiree. It just so happens that that

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<v Speaker 1>is what they demand. Is it by lower that you

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<v Speaker 1>take out? Isn't it four percent? So is that the

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<v Speaker 1>fire number? The fire number being what number you save

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<v Speaker 1>and then what number you must have from that to

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<v Speaker 1>live per year? Is that basically the first principle there?

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<v Speaker 2>Fire number?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's basically it. The thinking is that if you're

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<v Speaker 3>earning four percent on your capital, so if you've got

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<v Speaker 3>it in a term deposit or an ETF portfolio, in

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<v Speaker 3>the share market and bond and property markets, you're probably

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<v Speaker 3>going to earn about four percent income, which means that

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<v Speaker 3>once you've saved up that capital. So if we use

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<v Speaker 3>around number like a million dollars, you're expected to get

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<v Speaker 3>probably about forty thousand dollars per year. And if you

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<v Speaker 3>can live off that forty thousand dollars per year, you're

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<v Speaker 3>going to maintain a million dollars and you don't have

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<v Speaker 3>to work anymore. But as you've alluded to that, there

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<v Speaker 3>is the government age pension, but that comes in at

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<v Speaker 3>age sixty seven. You can access your super but that's

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<v Speaker 3>at age sixty. So for people who want to embark

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<v Speaker 3>on a fire strategy and retire in their twenties, thirties

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<v Speaker 3>and forties, they need to have personal money outside of

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<v Speaker 3>Super so that they can sustain themselves up until the

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<v Speaker 3>point where they can access their their super or the

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<v Speaker 3>government age pension. So one variation of the fire strategy

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<v Speaker 3>is called a lean fire, and that's where you minimize

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<v Speaker 3>your outgoing, do your living expenses when you decide to

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<v Speaker 3>stop working. So think about moving out into the bush,

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<v Speaker 3>going off the grid, getting a few chickens, having some

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<v Speaker 3>solar panels, and minimizing your costs so you know you

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<v Speaker 3>spending ten fifteen thousand dollars a year, which means that

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<v Speaker 3>the money that you need to save up isn't as

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<v Speaker 3>much as if you're living in to Rack, Melbourne for example.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, assuming that majority of our audience are not on

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<v Speaker 1>have their chickens in a hot in the woods somewhere,

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<v Speaker 1>they're probably in town. But assume that right doesn't safe assumption,

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<v Speaker 1>then a point that immediately hits me is our entire

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<v Speaker 1>saving system is turns on.

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<v Speaker 2>Super.

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<v Speaker 1>Super is a tax protected vehicle and the catches you

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<v Speaker 1>must keep the money in there till the day you retire.

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<v Speaker 1>Sixty is the earliest you can get that tax protected

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<v Speaker 1>money out and so ironically the super system works against

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<v Speaker 1>the notion of fire, or certainly against the notion the

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<v Speaker 1>fire concept of retiring really early forties or fifties.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that fair to say?

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<v Speaker 3>It is fair to say, yeah, yeah, you accumulate assets

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<v Speaker 3>in your personal name, you're subject to capital gains tax.

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<v Speaker 3>You generate that income from the dividends, the interest and

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<v Speaker 3>distributions on the investments. Again, you're taxed on that as well.

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<v Speaker 3>So it is harder to retire before the normal retirement

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<v Speaker 3>age's just due to your money being in your personal

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<v Speaker 3>name and being taxed at our marginal tax rates, which

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<v Speaker 3>can be up to forty seven percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, exactly, So that's what I'm saying that ironically, folks,

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<v Speaker 1>system actually wants you to keep working longer than the

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<v Speaker 1>fire concept suggests. But okay, let's take the second thing now,

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<v Speaker 1>on fire, the three big principles, right, one was the

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<v Speaker 1>calculator fire number, another one was commit to the lifestyle,

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<v Speaker 1>the fire lifestyle, and the third one was to grow

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<v Speaker 1>and protect your savings. Now this is where I do

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<v Speaker 1>get cynical. Okay, So there's this idea spending little as

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<v Speaker 1>little as you can, saving as much as you can

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<v Speaker 1>find fine by me. But then there's like they have

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<v Speaker 1>these sort of like sub notions. They have fire movement

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<v Speaker 1>approaches that two ways coast and barrista right coast, save

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<v Speaker 1>and invest much of their money decades before retirement, and

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<v Speaker 1>then when they hit their fire number, they can coast

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<v Speaker 1>through retirement because they've fired enough, because they've saved enough.

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<v Speaker 1>The second type is the barista. This refers to having

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<v Speaker 1>a low stress, part time job with flexible hours, and

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<v Speaker 1>the barista fire advocate typically set a lower retirement front

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<v Speaker 1>target for themselves and choose to work part time jobs

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<v Speaker 1>to supplement their income once they hit retirement. Come on,

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<v Speaker 1>part time barrista, I think you know it's a tough job.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a hard job, standing there, making coffees for people

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<v Speaker 1>and being socially gregarious. But what I'm saying is it's

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<v Speaker 1>harder than that line suggests to me.

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<v Speaker 2>That's not on.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think you could be a part time barrister

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<v Speaker 1>and finance anything close to a comfortable retirement. I'm under

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<v Speaker 1>cutting it here, but I have to feel a responsibility

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<v Speaker 1>to tell people it's not that easy. What do you

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<v Speaker 1>think about that? As a qualified advisor?

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<v Speaker 3>I agree yeah, so that the barista fire is like,

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<v Speaker 3>save really hard and then stop working full time and

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<v Speaker 3>then work part time and be a barrista or something

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<v Speaker 3>like that to cover part of your cost. So you

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<v Speaker 3>partly live off your savings, partly still work part time.

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<v Speaker 3>But as you say, that might not be easier, may

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<v Speaker 3>be stressful, and you may have been better just to

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<v Speaker 3>stay working part time and pace yourself out a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit more. Now, with regards to the fire lifestyle in general,

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<v Speaker 3>I've gone through the depths of the internet looking at

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<v Speaker 3>different forums on fire so that your listeners don't have

0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:05.080
<v Speaker 3>to and I've actually found a few different examples of

0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:08.400
<v Speaker 3>what people have actually done extreme fire measures with regards

0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:10.880
<v Speaker 3>to their lifestyle. So if you're like, I'll read out

0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:13.679
<v Speaker 3>some of them that I had noted. Okay, So some

0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:16.760
<v Speaker 3>people they live with their parents into their forties because

0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:18.280
<v Speaker 3>they don't want to pay rent, they don't want to

0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:20.800
<v Speaker 3>have a mortgage. Some of them were living in vans,

0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:24.600
<v Speaker 3>some bought tiny homes. I saw another person who posted

0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:28.160
<v Speaker 3>that they don't have friends as part of their fire strategy,

0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:31.040
<v Speaker 3>because friends are expensive. If you don't have friends, you

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.160
<v Speaker 3>don't have to buy anyone birthday gifts no wedding gifts,

0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:34.840
<v Speaker 3>you don't have to go out for drinks.

0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:39.079
<v Speaker 2>Makes sense, right, exire are extreme examples, get logitic, can't

0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:40.160
<v Speaker 2>knock them. Yeah.

0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.800
<v Speaker 3>Another one was this a little bit more contentious. Don't

0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.240
<v Speaker 3>have children because you know, we know how expensive children.

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:48.839
<v Speaker 3>And then there's more practical ones. Don't have a car, walk,

0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.800
<v Speaker 3>use a bike, public transport. And then there was a

0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:55.079
<v Speaker 3>whole section on food, a whole sub fire category on food.

0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:58.319
<v Speaker 3>So people just living off rice and eggs and pasta,

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:00.760
<v Speaker 3>the low cost staples and all the different recipes they

0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:01.360
<v Speaker 3>could make on that.

0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:03.720
<v Speaker 1>Is it all about saving gyms? Is it all about

0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 1>saving Is it no emphasis on building your income?

0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.840
<v Speaker 3>Well, there's two parts to it. There's the what you

0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:13.520
<v Speaker 3>can control, and you can really control what you spend.

0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 3>So a lot of people spend a lot of effort

0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.400
<v Speaker 3>on the fire movement on reducing their expenditure so that

0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:22.319
<v Speaker 3>they can save sixty seventy, sometimes eighty percent of their income.

0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:25.880
<v Speaker 3>And then the other part is generating your income. Which

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.679
<v Speaker 3>it was interesting that it's very much an economic decision,

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.360
<v Speaker 3>a cost benefit analysis when it comes to almost everything

0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.280
<v Speaker 3>with fire. So, for example, when it comes to your

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:37.920
<v Speaker 3>job and your income, the decision around do you go

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.920
<v Speaker 3>to university if you're pursuing the fire strategy really comes

0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:42.959
<v Speaker 3>down to how many years is it going to take

0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.960
<v Speaker 3>you to get your university degree. How many years are

0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 3>you not earning income that you could have been earning

0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 3>while you're study in what's the cost of that degree.

0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.600
<v Speaker 3>But on the other side of the equation, how much

0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.600
<v Speaker 3>extra income per hour are you going to make if

0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 3>you do have that degree qualification. So everything is very

0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.040
<v Speaker 3>thought out with that the fire strategy. And then the

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 3>last part which will come to is that the investing part.

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:04.720
<v Speaker 3>So there is some focus on that as well. But

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 3>I did see a lot of emphasis around ways to

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 3>cut down on spending so you can save more.

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Okay, I suppose that is reasonable, and so there are

0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:16.520
<v Speaker 1>certain things to be greatly admired in this far strategy.

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.880
<v Speaker 1>Not everyone can increase their income, particularly people on salary arrangements,

0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:26.120
<v Speaker 1>but you can always save that as a lever we

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:27.880
<v Speaker 1>can all pull. We can all save more. Every single

0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 1>person listening to this show, including me and you, James,

0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:33.000
<v Speaker 1>we could save more. I could not have lunch downstairs today,

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.040
<v Speaker 1>or I can have a smaller one, and I would say,

0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.400
<v Speaker 1>so I have that we all have that power.

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 2>We'll be back in a moment. It is very interesting.

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 1>It really is the fire concept and we're going to

0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.240
<v Speaker 1>take a look at the most important part, I would

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:47.960
<v Speaker 1>think from our listeners point of view, which is that

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:52.000
<v Speaker 1>this aspect of growing your income and protecting protecting your income,

0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 1>which they put up very high as a priority. Back

0:14:55.160 --> 0:15:07.520
<v Speaker 1>in the moment, Hello and welcome back to The Australian's

0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Money Puzzle podcast. I'm James Kirby Well at The Australian

0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 1>and I'm talking to regular guests of the show and

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.360
<v Speaker 1>contributor to the Worst Section, James Gerard, who will also

0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 1>be hosting some shows Folks with Stuart Weems in September.

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:25.440
<v Speaker 1>When I am taking a holiday, Are you allowed to

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.440
<v Speaker 1>take a holiday? I bet You're not allowed to take holidays

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 1>at all. On the fire and movements just plow away

0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.440
<v Speaker 1>week after week, half starved.

0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 2>See.

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:35.680
<v Speaker 1>I have to stop myself. I have to stop myself

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 1>under cutting this. It's not fair, okay, and it depends.

0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:45.800
<v Speaker 1>But as I say, I completely like, I completely admire

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:53.160
<v Speaker 1>concepts within this. All I'm actually skeptical about, James, is

0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 1>that they mislead people into thinking that you could retire,

0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:01.240
<v Speaker 1>that it's easier, that it might that you might be

0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:05.080
<v Speaker 1>make a terrible mistake, and assume that it is easier

0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:08.560
<v Speaker 1>to do so. I have often been asked, you know, well,

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 1>why are you still working? You don't have to keep working,

0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:14.240
<v Speaker 1>do you? And it's true, I don't have to. Maybe

0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:16.000
<v Speaker 1>you don't have to change. Certainly I don't have to.

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:20.080
<v Speaker 1>My my family are older than yours. So but it's

0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:23.440
<v Speaker 1>a question of the lifestyle I want. I could stop tomorrow,

0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:26.840
<v Speaker 1>but I couldn't live the way I live now tomorrow

0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 1>if I was to be realistic about it. And you

0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:31.920
<v Speaker 1>can apply that to anyone's life. I think in terms

0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:36.200
<v Speaker 1>of what's the reality of this, retire early? Assuming you

0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:37.920
<v Speaker 1>want to write I don't even want to, but I'm

0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:41.360
<v Speaker 1>assuming that people want to. Okay, now here's getting down

0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.960
<v Speaker 1>the brass tax Here about what I think is a

0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.440
<v Speaker 1>very important part of it is they talk about how

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:50.760
<v Speaker 1>to build income. They begin to passive income. Again, A

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.440
<v Speaker 1>part of me is going to say passive income. Yeah,

0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:55.960
<v Speaker 1>but it's never going to have the returns of active income.

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.680
<v Speaker 1>It just isn't. It certainly doesn't offer the same possibilities,

0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:02.800
<v Speaker 1>it offers the same return as the market, but it

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.439
<v Speaker 1>doesn't offer to beat the market, which you can do

0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:07.520
<v Speaker 1>if you're active. We'll put that to one side for

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:10.720
<v Speaker 1>a moment. So James, before we talk about how they

0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.680
<v Speaker 1>talk about making money, they've got a really big emphasis

0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:19.840
<v Speaker 1>on protecting yourself, enforcing circumstances, building up three to six

0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:23.200
<v Speaker 1>months worth of savings. Gee, honestly, that's a very slow

0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 1>way to start building money, rainy day funds and ensuring

0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:28.840
<v Speaker 1>everything you can think of. What do you think of

0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:30.920
<v Speaker 1>that central concept?

0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:36.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it makes sense. It's prudent. It's good to have

0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:41.920
<v Speaker 3>that cash buffer there for unforeseen circumstances. It is very sensible.

0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:46.000
<v Speaker 3>For a large part what the fire philosophy is, it's

0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:49.240
<v Speaker 3>really just been more frugal in these earlier years and

0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:52.119
<v Speaker 3>then enjoying yourself later. So even though I said earlier

0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:55.120
<v Speaker 3>that only five percent of people is successful in achieving that,

0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:59.400
<v Speaker 3>the majority of people do get closer to their financial

0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:02.679
<v Speaker 3>goals because they have saved more, they have worked harder,

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:07.200
<v Speaker 3>they have invested better, they have implemented good solid financial

0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:11.240
<v Speaker 3>Fundacians like having a cash reserve. So overall it's a

0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.320
<v Speaker 3>good thing, But it's really that degree of how far

0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:16.760
<v Speaker 3>do you push it do you not have friends, do

0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:19.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, dive into dumpsters and get out expired food

0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:21.080
<v Speaker 3>so they don't have to buy a loaf of bread

0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 3>at the local shops. Yeah.

0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:26.560
<v Speaker 1>The point is which frugal becomes being mean or miserly

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.880
<v Speaker 1>from one of a better word, and miserly has connotations,

0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:33.840
<v Speaker 1>all sorts of connotations, and rarely linked with happiness, which

0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:38.040
<v Speaker 1>is something you can't really measure. Maybe you do it

0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:39.879
<v Speaker 1>and you retire at fifty and you look back and

0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.720
<v Speaker 1>you say, gosh, you know, I can't really go to

0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.920
<v Speaker 1>nightclubs now till four in the morning. And I could

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:47.960
<v Speaker 1>have in those days, or you know, I could have

0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:50.320
<v Speaker 1>sailed around the world, or I could have whatever, played

0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:52.320
<v Speaker 1>soccer at a high level or whatever, but I didn't

0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:54.080
<v Speaker 1>because I didn't want to buy expensive boots.

0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:54.520
<v Speaker 2>Whatever.

0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm just again playing Devil's advocate here. Okay, So they're

0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:00.199
<v Speaker 1>big into insurance, and I am not that I'm not

0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:02.639
<v Speaker 1>big into insurance. I think you should ensure yourself.

0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:04.720
<v Speaker 2>WHOA, I would be.

0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:07.720
<v Speaker 1>Extremely careful in spending a penny more than you actually

0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:09.400
<v Speaker 1>need to from an actual point.

0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:12.800
<v Speaker 2>Of view passive income. They think that this is the

0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:13.600
<v Speaker 2>big secret.

0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:15.840
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's a secret. But maybe here's a

0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:18.400
<v Speaker 1>secret to many people. They still don't realize what ETFs

0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:22.399
<v Speaker 1>are and index funds. What do you think of this

0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:27.679
<v Speaker 1>building passive income concept for the average person and the

0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:30.280
<v Speaker 1>average situation who doesn't have much money, and it only

0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.520
<v Speaker 1>has a very limited amount to apply to wealth building.

0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:37.960
<v Speaker 3>So the building the passive income under the fire strategy

0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.320
<v Speaker 3>isn't really any different to how most people build their wealth.

0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:44.520
<v Speaker 3>They have a bit of cash at buffer, they start

0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:48.399
<v Speaker 3>to have a surplus every month that they identify, they

0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.160
<v Speaker 3>put that aside, and then they invest that into something,

0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:53.800
<v Speaker 3>whether that's to save a deposit and then purchase an

0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:56.800
<v Speaker 3>investment property or a home and pay down the mortgage,

0:19:56.840 --> 0:20:00.760
<v Speaker 3>or whether that's into an ETF portfolio. The goal is

0:20:00.800 --> 0:20:03.800
<v Speaker 3>to grow the asset. So what I observed is that

0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:07.080
<v Speaker 3>the fire strategies to have more growth based assets in

0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 3>those earlier years to try and get dearly double digit returns.

0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:13.800
<v Speaker 1>Okay, interesting, Okay, and then they have the I think

0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:16.080
<v Speaker 1>the third prong of this is to basically work more

0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:19.760
<v Speaker 1>side gigs, side hustles, again, which I would completely agree

0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:21.959
<v Speaker 1>with and I think we probably all of us did

0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:24.400
<v Speaker 1>at various times in our lives when we wanted, when

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 1>you're in that early accumulation phase and you just had

0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:29.960
<v Speaker 1>to get going, that would seem to make a perfect

0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:34.320
<v Speaker 1>sense towards financial independence. So having had a look at

0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 1>it all, James and I've had a good look at

0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:39.720
<v Speaker 1>it all, but haven't met anyone who's a disciple as such.

0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 1>Maybe we have some listenings to the show. I'm really

0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:44.919
<v Speaker 1>keen to hear from you, folks if you are have

0:20:45.080 --> 0:20:47.639
<v Speaker 1>tried it, or you've experimented with it, or you've met

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.480
<v Speaker 1>people who live by it, havn't taken the deep dive, James.

0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:56.240
<v Speaker 1>If I came to you in earnest and said, I'm

0:20:56.280 --> 0:20:59.720
<v Speaker 1>applying myself to the fire concept, I love it. It's

0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:01.760
<v Speaker 1>going to It's changed my life so far, and I'm

0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:05.080
<v Speaker 1>really starting to save. What would you say a broad

0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:08.040
<v Speaker 1>advice to someone like that? What would your instinct be

0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:09.120
<v Speaker 1>to tell them.

0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:13.240
<v Speaker 3>It's really just having balance in your life? What makes

0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:17.400
<v Speaker 3>you happy? You know, I'll sound a little bit philosophical here,

0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:20.159
<v Speaker 3>but any of us can drop dead tomorrow. And if

0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:23.439
<v Speaker 3>you've spent your twenties and your thirties being frugal and

0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:27.040
<v Speaker 3>almost misily, and then you pass away, unexpectedly. You know,

0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:29.520
<v Speaker 3>what is your life been. You've been working towards this

0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 3>future that you haven't had. So there's something to say

0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:34.199
<v Speaker 3>about enjoying every day as much as you can. But

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:36.119
<v Speaker 3>then on the other hand, there's that you need to

0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:38.800
<v Speaker 3>think about the future as well. So if people are

0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:42.560
<v Speaker 3>comfortable with their lifestyle while pursuing a fire strategy, So

0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:46.600
<v Speaker 3>if they're comfortable to work, do extra side gigs, do

0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:49.520
<v Speaker 3>lots of hours, save more than the average person, be

0:21:49.560 --> 0:21:51.280
<v Speaker 3>a little bit more aggressive than the average person in

0:21:51.320 --> 0:21:54.560
<v Speaker 3>their investing activities, and they're comfortable with that, fantastic. You're

0:21:54.560 --> 0:21:57.480
<v Speaker 3>probably going to retire earlier than most people and have

0:21:57.600 --> 0:21:59.960
<v Speaker 3>more passive income than the average person would in retirement.

0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:02.840
<v Speaker 3>But if you're finding you're not enjoying it and it's

0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:06.800
<v Speaker 3>really grinding on your lifestyle, well then it's not for you.

0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:07.720
<v Speaker 2>Very good.

0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:10.720
<v Speaker 1>It's really interesting, isn't it. It's look hats off to

0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:14.400
<v Speaker 1>whoever came up with the concept. People love the concept.

0:22:13.760 --> 0:22:18.480
<v Speaker 1>I like the five part financial independence. I reckon that's great.

0:22:18.680 --> 0:22:22.159
<v Speaker 1>Retirely that's your recall. I imagine it does instill for

0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:24.879
<v Speaker 1>people who have never really thought about it or review

0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:27.080
<v Speaker 1>their own situation. I think it's got a lot going

0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:29.840
<v Speaker 1>for it. I would just be careful, as James says

0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:34.879
<v Speaker 1>about overdoing it, because you only live once, or you're

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:38.520
<v Speaker 1>certainly only twenty or thirty once, and you don't get

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:41.320
<v Speaker 1>those years back, as everyone will tell you when they're older.

0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:43.080
<v Speaker 1>All right, we'll take short break. We have some great

0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:54.040
<v Speaker 1>questions back in a moment. Hello and welcome back to

0:22:54.119 --> 0:22:58.159
<v Speaker 1>the Australians Money Puzzle podcast. James Kirkby here with James

0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:01.080
<v Speaker 1>Gerard from a Financial Advice Dot. One thing we should

0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:03.880
<v Speaker 1>have covered there because Tuesday is very much as an emphasis

0:23:03.880 --> 0:23:06.439
<v Speaker 1>on property and I see much in the way a

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:08.960
<v Speaker 1>property investment mentioned in that in as fire coverage. A

0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:11.360
<v Speaker 1>lot of it is the US, of course, and property

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:14.639
<v Speaker 1>is so much more central to our building than there is,

0:23:14.680 --> 0:23:19.120
<v Speaker 1>particularly residential property. Did you come across anything on property

0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:20.280
<v Speaker 1>as such as an asset?

0:23:22.400 --> 0:23:25.040
<v Speaker 3>I did. They were. The people were very rational when

0:23:25.080 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 3>they spoke about it. It was basically what works out

0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:30.119
<v Speaker 3>better and when I say better, what means that they

0:23:30.160 --> 0:23:33.119
<v Speaker 3>can retire sooner under the fire movement. So if they

0:23:33.160 --> 0:23:36.640
<v Speaker 3>can buy a property in a cheap location, pay off

0:23:36.680 --> 0:23:39.119
<v Speaker 3>that mortgage over a ten year period. Fantastic they're not

0:23:39.160 --> 0:23:42.680
<v Speaker 3>having to pay rent, whereas others have figured that, Okay,

0:23:42.720 --> 0:23:45.359
<v Speaker 3>I'm happy to build a tiny home for fifty thousand

0:23:45.440 --> 0:23:48.879
<v Speaker 3>dollars and plant that somewhere in a friend's backyard, and

0:23:49.000 --> 0:23:50.960
<v Speaker 3>that's fine. That means that I can retire early. I

0:23:50.960 --> 0:23:53.720
<v Speaker 3>don't need to buy the land and have a proper house.

0:23:53.760 --> 0:23:56.320
<v Speaker 3>So it really came down to how much they were

0:23:56.320 --> 0:23:58.960
<v Speaker 3>willing to compromise where they wanted to live as to

0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:01.679
<v Speaker 3>decide in between a property and then or otherwise just

0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:04.440
<v Speaker 3>renting under the fire movement. And maybe just one other

0:24:04.440 --> 0:24:06.879
<v Speaker 3>thing which I wanted to mention about the fire movement

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:09.280
<v Speaker 3>is that I actually have a client who pursued it.

0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 3>He worked really hard in his twenties and thirties, and

0:24:12.040 --> 0:24:15.240
<v Speaker 3>he retired in his early forties. And he said to

0:24:15.280 --> 0:24:18.680
<v Speaker 3>me the other day that, look, it's great on paper

0:24:18.760 --> 0:24:21.040
<v Speaker 3>to retire in your forties, but the thing is that

0:24:21.440 --> 0:24:24.679
<v Speaker 3>your friends aren't retired. They're working Monday to Friday. So

0:24:24.880 --> 0:24:26.679
<v Speaker 3>you know, I can go play golf every day, but

0:24:26.720 --> 0:24:28.200
<v Speaker 3>I've got no one to go play golf with. I

0:24:28.359 --> 0:24:29.879
<v Speaker 3>can go to lunch every day, I've got no one

0:24:29.880 --> 0:24:31.679
<v Speaker 3>to go to lunch with. Everyone else is busy and.

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:35.159
<v Speaker 1>He really can live in Sydney and he's retired and

0:24:35.160 --> 0:24:36.120
<v Speaker 1>he's in his forties.

0:24:36.359 --> 0:24:38.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's right. Yeah, what does he do then?

0:24:39.200 --> 0:24:42.479
<v Speaker 3>He's a doctor, so he worked tirelessly, but not just

0:24:42.520 --> 0:24:46.480
<v Speaker 3>as a GP. He started to buy and grow medical practices,

0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:49.400
<v Speaker 3>so he built up a very good empire of businesses

0:24:49.440 --> 0:24:52.120
<v Speaker 3>there and has been able to retire in his foresting.

0:24:52.359 --> 0:24:55.040
<v Speaker 1>Interesting, my dad retired when he was sixty, which was

0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:57.760
<v Speaker 1>early at the time or at this wasnt common at

0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:02.520
<v Speaker 1>the time, and he lukely loved it and he took

0:25:02.600 --> 0:25:05.439
<v Speaker 1>to it straight away, and like literally was a model

0:25:05.480 --> 0:25:07.800
<v Speaker 1>of how to retire. He had a lot of interests

0:25:07.800 --> 0:25:11.560
<v Speaker 1>outside of work, and he found work very hard in

0:25:11.600 --> 0:25:13.639
<v Speaker 1>the end because he was in building, which is a

0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:17.280
<v Speaker 1>tough game, as anyone knows. Okay, now some questions, we'll

0:25:17.280 --> 0:25:20.000
<v Speaker 1>only get through a few, just James, I might just

0:25:20.080 --> 0:25:21.679
<v Speaker 1>zone in on one or two.

0:25:21.720 --> 0:25:23.720
<v Speaker 2>I really want to get covered. Sally says.

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:26.680
<v Speaker 1>I found your interview with Eliza Owen of Core Logic interesting,

0:25:26.720 --> 0:25:29.960
<v Speaker 1>but I disagree with her conclusion of oversupply in Victoria

0:25:30.000 --> 0:25:33.679
<v Speaker 1>based on the number of supply over sold. The supply

0:25:33.760 --> 0:25:36.479
<v Speaker 1>problem is a chronic problem. I'm very surprised that all

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:41.600
<v Speaker 1>of a sudden we have oversupply problem based on auction rates. Okay, Sally, well,

0:25:41.720 --> 0:25:44.639
<v Speaker 1>Eliza was fairly convincing on that. I think there's a

0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:48.600
<v Speaker 1>couple of things there. Melbourne is in relative oversupply and

0:25:48.800 --> 0:25:52.679
<v Speaker 1>the other states are undersupplied. Melbourne had one hundred thousand

0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:55.760
<v Speaker 1>more houses built than Sydney, for instance, which is a

0:25:55.840 --> 0:25:59.760
<v Speaker 1>larger city. So in that, to that extent, it is

0:25:59.800 --> 0:26:04.560
<v Speaker 1>the stet with relative ulversupply. We probably could examine that

0:26:04.760 --> 0:26:06.840
<v Speaker 1>harder and have a long debate about it, but that

0:26:06.920 --> 0:26:10.960
<v Speaker 1>I think would hopefully cover the bases there. Carl asks

0:26:11.119 --> 0:26:15.320
<v Speaker 1>very simple question Car, at Car, are you generally better

0:26:15.359 --> 0:26:18.240
<v Speaker 1>off borrowing a million to negatively gear an invest in

0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:24.879
<v Speaker 1>a property? Are salary sacrificing salary sacrificing into super? I

0:26:24.960 --> 0:26:27.240
<v Speaker 1>presume he means jams, we do you reckon?

0:26:28.640 --> 0:26:31.679
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, salary sacrifice it into super? You get a tax break.

0:26:32.240 --> 0:26:34.560
<v Speaker 3>So rather than pay tax at your marginal tax rate

0:26:34.560 --> 0:26:36.440
<v Speaker 3>of up to forty seven percent, the money that goes

0:26:36.480 --> 0:26:39.680
<v Speaker 3>into Super gets tax at fifteen percent, or if you

0:26:39.760 --> 0:26:41.480
<v Speaker 3>eard more than two hundred and fifty thousand dollars, it

0:26:41.480 --> 0:26:44.919
<v Speaker 3>gets taxed at thirty percent. So there's this benefit, this

0:26:45.080 --> 0:26:48.360
<v Speaker 3>tax benefit of putting money into super So that's great.

0:26:49.160 --> 0:26:51.400
<v Speaker 3>The downside is that you have to wait until you're

0:26:51.440 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 3>sixty and retire to access that money. The alternative, which

0:26:54.840 --> 0:26:58.280
<v Speaker 3>Cayl mentioned is borrowing a million dollars and negatively gearing

0:26:58.280 --> 0:27:02.640
<v Speaker 3>that so buying an investment property fine, but the risk

0:27:02.720 --> 0:27:05.560
<v Speaker 3>there is that your gain or loss is magnified because

0:27:05.600 --> 0:27:07.920
<v Speaker 3>you've borrowed a heap of money. You've put in minimal

0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:11.040
<v Speaker 3>of your own capital there, and so there's a really

0:27:11.080 --> 0:27:13.080
<v Speaker 3>big risk that if you get it wrong, you really

0:27:13.119 --> 0:27:15.600
<v Speaker 3>get it wrong, and it can. It's ruined some people

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.399
<v Speaker 3>financially where they've borrowed a lot, bought property and it

0:27:18.440 --> 0:27:21.760
<v Speaker 3>hasn't gone to plan. So we think about mining towns

0:27:21.800 --> 0:27:24.880
<v Speaker 3>in Western Australia or Queensland in the past where they

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:27.080
<v Speaker 3>want to ride the wave the market's been going up.

0:27:27.359 --> 0:27:29.439
<v Speaker 3>They buy, unfortunately at the top of the market, and

0:27:29.480 --> 0:27:31.840
<v Speaker 3>then they see the property drop by fifty percent in

0:27:31.880 --> 0:27:34.199
<v Speaker 3>a few years. That follows they're left with debt that

0:27:34.200 --> 0:27:36.520
<v Speaker 3>they need to pay off over a twenty year period

0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:38.120
<v Speaker 3>and they've had to sell the property.

0:27:38.640 --> 0:27:42.320
<v Speaker 1>So Carl History would suggests you could be better off.

0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:45.880
<v Speaker 1>What you're really asking is if I gear up on property,

0:27:46.920 --> 0:27:51.400
<v Speaker 1>well I do better than on geared diversified investments and superannuation.

0:27:51.840 --> 0:27:53.600
<v Speaker 1>And no one can really tell you that to be fair,

0:27:53.640 --> 0:27:57.040
<v Speaker 1>you should gear your superannuation to gear against to match

0:27:57.080 --> 0:28:00.400
<v Speaker 1>dollar for dollar the geared dollars in property. I think

0:28:00.440 --> 0:28:02.879
<v Speaker 1>the essential point of which James is making, and by

0:28:02.920 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 1>the way, this has never advised its information only is

0:28:06.280 --> 0:28:08.840
<v Speaker 1>that if all your eggs in one basket, it's not complicated.

0:28:08.920 --> 0:28:11.600
<v Speaker 1>If all your eggs in one basket Australian residential property,

0:28:11.720 --> 0:28:14.280
<v Speaker 1>and there's nothing to say that Australian residential property will

0:28:14.320 --> 0:28:18.080
<v Speaker 1>be a knockout investment forever. It's been pretty good for

0:28:18.119 --> 0:28:20.560
<v Speaker 1>a long time and will probably continue to be. But

0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:24.359
<v Speaker 1>you will go against the basic core principles of diverse

0:28:24.400 --> 0:28:27.439
<v Speaker 1>lofication which we all sincerely believe in around here at

0:28:27.480 --> 0:28:32.080
<v Speaker 1>the Money Puzzle. Okay, final question if I can, James,

0:28:32.080 --> 0:28:35.280
<v Speaker 1>sorry to bounced through this, but it's interesting. I'm going

0:28:35.320 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 1>to read out what the reader Kate says, and then

0:28:38.520 --> 0:28:40.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to read out the response from a previous guest,

0:28:40.920 --> 0:28:43.240
<v Speaker 1>because previous guests have the writer reply just like you

0:28:43.280 --> 0:28:45.880
<v Speaker 1>have James. Should anyone come marching in on what you

0:28:45.960 --> 0:28:49.520
<v Speaker 1>said today so fire people might okay? Kate says, I

0:28:49.600 --> 0:28:53.120
<v Speaker 1>enjoyed this seems the podcast here in New Zealand. I

0:28:53.160 --> 0:28:55.480
<v Speaker 1>was listening to some back episodes and I listened to

0:28:55.600 --> 0:28:59.640
<v Speaker 1>why rental growth is going to weaken? This was from April.

0:29:00.480 --> 0:29:05.000
<v Speaker 1>It was near the connesty from Rewhit, she says. Kate says,

0:29:05.040 --> 0:29:08.160
<v Speaker 1>from New Zealand, I was interested to hear Nerida's comment

0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:11.080
<v Speaker 1>on New Zealand rental market and the anecdote provided that

0:29:11.200 --> 0:29:13.160
<v Speaker 1>was the opposite of what the data shows.

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 2>She said.

0:29:14.200 --> 0:29:17.120
<v Speaker 1>The changes met by the government here in stopping negative

0:29:17.160 --> 0:29:21.320
<v Speaker 1>gearing has seen landlords leave the market. This was what

0:29:21.400 --> 0:29:26.680
<v Speaker 1>was expected to happen, but data says differently. In New Zealand,

0:29:27.720 --> 0:29:30.600
<v Speaker 1>it is the law that bonds collected are lodged with

0:29:30.680 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 1>Tenancy Servances, a government agency, and they also report on

0:29:34.560 --> 0:29:37.160
<v Speaker 1>bond data. This is the best record of tenancies in

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:40.840
<v Speaker 1>the country and it shows in June twenty twenty one,

0:29:40.880 --> 0:29:43.200
<v Speaker 1>before the law changed, the number of bonds lodge Worth

0:29:43.240 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 1>three hundred and eighty five thousand. A year later it

0:29:46.560 --> 0:29:49.560
<v Speaker 1>was three hundred and eighty eight thousand. That is the

0:29:49.600 --> 0:29:53.280
<v Speaker 1>opposite of landlords leaving the market. So Kate is making

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:57.479
<v Speaker 1>the point, Hey, if you remove negative gearing, it doesn't

0:29:57.760 --> 0:30:01.560
<v Speaker 1>hit the market as badly as men and he say, Nereada,

0:30:01.640 --> 0:30:04.560
<v Speaker 1>I had to go back, obviously to Newada and say

0:30:04.560 --> 0:30:07.040
<v Speaker 1>this is what Kate has said. I've sent her your

0:30:07.040 --> 0:30:11.880
<v Speaker 1>correspondence Kate, and Nereada says, okay, she says it's interesting.

0:30:11.920 --> 0:30:14.680
<v Speaker 1>I double checked what Kate is saying is correct about

0:30:14.720 --> 0:30:22.040
<v Speaker 1>rental bonds. However, investor lending has plummeted, it basically cut

0:30:22.120 --> 0:30:26.240
<v Speaker 1>in half. So investors are certainly not entering the market

0:30:26.240 --> 0:30:29.400
<v Speaker 1>in New Zealand like they were. It's also extremely challenging

0:30:29.440 --> 0:30:31.240
<v Speaker 1>to sell a house in New Zealand at the moment

0:30:31.280 --> 0:30:32.080
<v Speaker 1>with interest rates.

0:30:32.080 --> 0:30:32.760
<v Speaker 2>So HI.

0:30:34.720 --> 0:30:38.480
<v Speaker 1>On rental demand New Zealand's extremely low population growth in

0:30:38.520 --> 0:30:40.840
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty one and twenty two as a result, there

0:30:40.880 --> 0:30:43.640
<v Speaker 1>is no additional demand for rental accommodation. The main challenge

0:30:43.720 --> 0:30:46.760
<v Speaker 1>right now is that it is the least affordable country

0:30:46.800 --> 0:30:50.480
<v Speaker 1>in the world to be a renter. So and Or

0:30:50.600 --> 0:30:55.160
<v Speaker 1>doesn't deny what you've said, Kate, as she challenges your

0:30:55.160 --> 0:30:58.760
<v Speaker 1>interpretation of the data. And we will leave those that

0:30:58.760 --> 0:31:02.000
<v Speaker 1>that amazing question hanging out there. If we scrap negative gearing,

0:31:02.800 --> 0:31:05.840
<v Speaker 1>would it make the market better or worse for investors?

0:31:06.520 --> 0:31:10.160
<v Speaker 1>Many say it would, and Vida implies that, and Kate

0:31:10.440 --> 0:31:13.560
<v Speaker 1>implies that the experience in New Zealand hasn't suggested that,

0:31:14.400 --> 0:31:19.840
<v Speaker 1>using the one criteria being the registration of bonds in

0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:23.840
<v Speaker 1>the market. Interesting though we'll never know. Part Keating tried it,

0:31:24.680 --> 0:31:26.320
<v Speaker 1>he only lasted about a year and a half and

0:31:26.320 --> 0:31:28.600
<v Speaker 1>then he backtracked and put it back in.

0:31:28.800 --> 0:31:31.040
<v Speaker 2>And Partkating didn't backtrack on much.

0:31:32.480 --> 0:31:34.480
<v Speaker 1>And I don't think anyone We always say we don't

0:31:34.520 --> 0:31:36.240
<v Speaker 1>know if anybody will go near it here, but perhaps

0:31:36.280 --> 0:31:38.520
<v Speaker 1>somebody will be clever enough to find a way to

0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:41.880
<v Speaker 1>look at all tax reform without having themselves voted out

0:31:41.880 --> 0:31:42.440
<v Speaker 1>of office.

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:43.880
<v Speaker 2>That remains to be seen.

0:31:44.000 --> 0:31:48.960
<v Speaker 1>James Gerard, financial advisor dot com and regular contributor, weekly

0:31:49.000 --> 0:31:50.600
<v Speaker 1>contributor to the Australian Web Section.

0:31:50.680 --> 0:31:51.720
<v Speaker 2>Lovely to have you on again.

0:31:52.200 --> 0:31:54.920
<v Speaker 3>Thank you my pleasure as always, great.

0:31:54.680 --> 0:31:58.240
<v Speaker 1>To talk to you, great to have the questions rolling in. Everybody,

0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:01.720
<v Speaker 1>do mention us to someone you know mentioned the show.

0:32:01.760 --> 0:32:03.240
<v Speaker 1>It would be lovely if you did that. I really

0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:07.320
<v Speaker 1>appreciate that. The email is the money puzzle at the

0:32:07.360 --> 0:32:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Australian dot com dot Au and the producer today was

0:32:10.560 --> 0:32:11.200
<v Speaker 1>Liah Samando.

0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:12.080
<v Speaker 3>Hope you soon