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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use. Today.

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Speaker 1: The local share market closes at a near record high,

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Speaker 1: taking the rise over the twenty twenty five financial year

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Speaker 1: to almost ten percent. Goal that's set to become Australia's

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Speaker 1: third largest export, replacing coal, and free to air TV

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Speaker 1: still reigns over streaming in the battle for TV viewing

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Speaker 1: minutes plus, the Star Group is in trouble again and

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Speaker 1: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney caves to Donald Trump's pressure

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Speaker 1: on tech companies. It is Tuesday, the first of July

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and happy new financial year,

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Speaker 1: Adam Lang.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael. I share in that joy. Good morning

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Speaker 2: to you, and a very.

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Speaker 1: Good morning to our newsletter today. It's a great addition

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Speaker 1: of the newsletter. It really kind of goes into a

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Speaker 1: lot of the share market moves over the last twelve months.

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Speaker 1: If you haven't subscribed already, jump on today, head to

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Speaker 1: Fear dot com dot au, pop your email addressing. I'll

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Speaker 1: put a link in today's show notes as well, and

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Speaker 1: you'll get it every weekday morning by six am on

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Speaker 1: with the show Adam. The main story this morning, the

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Speaker 1: SMPA s X two hundred has finished the financial year

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Speaker 1: on a high, with gold, tech stocks, and financials really

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Speaker 1: showing the way. Energy stocks are the worst performers, with

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Speaker 1: the energy sub index on the BOSS down more than

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Speaker 1: thirteen percent. The material sector, including the big miners, was

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Speaker 1: the second worst performing sub sub index for the full year.

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Speaker 1: This is pretty remarkable. The local market ended up ten

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Speaker 1: percent to eighty five hundred and forty two points, having

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Speaker 1: touched a record high on eleven June of eighty six

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty nine point one points to very important

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Speaker 1: point one there. From its bottom in April to its peak,

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Speaker 1: the BOSS jumped more than twenty percent all bit briefly. Undoubtedly,

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Speaker 1: if you look at it all, it was the gold

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Speaker 1: stocks that did best thanks to the big rises in

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Speaker 1: the price of the press just metal. In fact, I

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Speaker 1: think four of the top ten performers on the ASX

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Speaker 1: two hundred over the last financial year were gold stocks.

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Speaker 1: Not a bad time to be a gold miner.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a strong performance, Michael Away from Gold. Among

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Speaker 2: the best performing stocks over the past year is Sigma Healthcare,

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Speaker 2: which did a backdoor merger with Chemists Warehouse to create

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Speaker 2: a retailing Giant. Its share price is up one hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty five percent. Another very well performing retail over

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Speaker 2: the past year is Temple and Webster, the online seller

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Speaker 2: which goes from strength to strength. Its share price has

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Speaker 2: quadrupled over the past two years. However, the prize of

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Speaker 2: best performer on the ASEX two hundred for the year

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Speaker 2: goes to shipbuilder Ostel, which is the subject of a

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Speaker 2: takeover battle. Its share price is up more than one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty percent. Another very good performer is Generation Development,

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Speaker 2: which provides specialist financial products. Then there's a bunch of

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Speaker 2: tech stocks. Michael had done very well Technology one, Life,

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Speaker 2: three sixty, pro Medicus and Zipco.

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Speaker 1: It's been a fascinating year. If we take a look

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Speaker 1: at some of the household names or the larger companies,

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Speaker 1: some of the better performers include JB hi Fi and

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Speaker 1: Quantus Brambles from Domain, the latter thanks to a takeover offer.

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Speaker 1: When you're talking about the megacaps, the two companies on

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Speaker 1: the burse with the most shareholders, Telstra and Commonwealth Bank,

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Speaker 1: both returned around forty percent. That is just staggering for

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank and Telstra with so many retail shareholders to

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Speaker 1: return around forty percent. Others in that top tier to

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Speaker 1: do very well West Farmers, Aristocrat Leisure, and colds Group.

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Speaker 1: Then there are the less successful companies. Adam, I would

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Speaker 1: never call them duds, but I suppose dudness is in

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Speaker 1: the eye of the beholder, because if you were to

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Speaker 1: have invested in them twelve months ago, you might be

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Speaker 1: tempted perhaps to use that word.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael, the dudness list is not one you want

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Speaker 2: to be on. Worst of the top two hundred last

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Speaker 2: financial year was Mineral Resources, down nearly sixty percent. It

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Speaker 2: had a horror from questions over owner Chris Ellison and management,

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Speaker 2: through to truck accidents in and out of its main

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Speaker 2: mind and low lithium prices. All three of those factors

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Speaker 2: came into play. Another lithium company, Pilgrim Minerals, wasn't much better,

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Speaker 2: while Uranium Group, Paladin, and Domino's Pizza were also among

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Speaker 2: the very worst performers of the top two hundred. Some

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Speaker 2: of the travel companies did very poorly, as well, as

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Speaker 2: did Treasury, Wine Estates, and Fortesque. Also, the data center

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Speaker 2: groups Next DC and Digiico Infrastructure had bad years. Both

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Speaker 2: of them were down more than twenty percent. That reflected

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Speaker 2: concerns that the companies had run too hard in that

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Speaker 2: AI space and also speculation that the cheaper, less chip

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Speaker 2: intensive artificial intelligence is on the horizon following the release

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Speaker 2: of Chinese backed Deep Seek.

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Speaker 1: It's funny to think that deep Seak only emerged in

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Speaker 1: January of this year, like it wasn't even that long ago.

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Speaker 1: It feels like that was years ago, right, What a

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Speaker 1: disruptor it's been. Absolutely the immediate impact that that had,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily to so much for the product itself, but

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Speaker 1: for what it meant in the potential for AI. That

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Speaker 1: used a lot less energy, But again, very hard to

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Speaker 1: verify a lot of those claims, but certainly enough to

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Speaker 1: shake things up a little bit. Now after the show, Adam,

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Speaker 1: We've got an interview coming up with one of our

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Speaker 1: favorites here on Fear and Greed, Roger Montgomery, who is

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Speaker 1: the founder and chief investment officer at Montgomery Investment Management,

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Speaker 1: a great supporter of the podcast, and we go through

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Speaker 1: with him the best and worst performers, but go beyond

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Speaker 1: just taking a look at the top companies into some

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Speaker 1: of these bigger long term trends, and my favorite part

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Speaker 1: of the conversation is actually probably when Roger talks to

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Speaker 1: us about whether the era of US exceptionalism is over

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Speaker 1: and what that actually means, and what that would mean

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Speaker 1: looking ahead for investors in the next financial year, what

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Speaker 1: it means more broadly for markets. It is a great conversation,

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Speaker 1: very wide ranging, but guaranteed value. If you're an investor,

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Speaker 1: it is worth a listen.

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Speaker 2: Roger has been trading in this space successfully for decades

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Speaker 2: and he's literally written a book on it, right, so

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Speaker 2: he knows so much and his insights. He swims around

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Speaker 2: in that international trading market as well as in Australia,

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Speaker 2: so he knows this train so well. That's a great interview.

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Speaker 1: Yes, a cracker of a chat, as we say here

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Speaker 1: on fear and greed. Okay, quick break. Adam will be

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news. Adam Gold is set to become Australia's third

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Speaker 1: highest value export in the next year, overtaking metallurgical coal

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Speaker 1: and coming in behind iron ore and LNG. A surging

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Speaker 1: price of the precious metal has really increased the value

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Speaker 1: of gold exports, according to a federal government report. Helping

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Speaker 1: exports is the fact that global central banks have been

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Speaker 1: diversifying their reserves a way from US dollars and into

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Speaker 1: gold really not just fueling but almost turbocharging demand for

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Speaker 1: the market.

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Speaker 2: Michael I think these numbers given insight into why Australia

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Speaker 2: is so fortunate for so long in this train. Australia's

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Speaker 2: export earnings from gold are expected to hit fifty six

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Speaker 2: billion in the next year, compared with metallurgical coal exports

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Speaker 2: that are likely to remain steady at around forty billion.

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Speaker 2: The Department of Industry, Science and Resources DUNE quarterly Resources

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Speaker 2: and Energy Report says the outlook for the overall resource

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Speaker 2: and energy export earnings was for a decline of about

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Speaker 2: four percent to three hundred and sixty nine billion in

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Speaker 2: the year ahead. Iron ore accounts for one quarter of

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Speaker 2: all of our exports, but it will be lower this

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Speaker 2: new financial year. Liquefiedinancial gas earnings will also fall slightly

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Speaker 2: this year on the back of lower prices.

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Speaker 1: You cannot bring yourself to say LNG, can you?

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Speaker 2: It is just who would know what it means? Isn't

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Speaker 2: it important to get the words in?

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Speaker 1: I don't know whether it is. Will we refer to

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Speaker 1: the ABC? You never refer to broadcasting. You're never going

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Speaker 1: to do that, right. Everyone just knows what it means.

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Speaker 1: Everyone knows what LNNG means.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, let's talk about the Star group. No initialisms there.

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Speaker 1: No, but there's more challenges for them Adam, which is

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Speaker 1: just something completely different, really, isn't it. It's Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: investors have threatened to walk away from a deal for

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Speaker 1: Brisbane's new Queenswarf casino and hotel complex, and that move

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Speaker 1: would put the already struggling group under extreme financial pressure.

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong's Chow Tai Fook Enterprises and Far East Consortium

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Speaker 1: each own twenty five percent of the Brisbane complex, and

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Speaker 1: in March said they would buy stars fifty percent stake,

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Speaker 1: as well as the Treasury hotel and car park.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Michael, shall we say? From gold Shine to Falling Star.

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Speaker 2: Documents were required to be signed by April thirty, but

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Speaker 2: a deal was never reached. Yesterday, Star told the ASX

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Speaker 2: that the joint venture partners planned to terminate the heads

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Speaker 2: of agreement. The Australian Financial Review is reporting that the

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Speaker 2: Star and its partners disagreed over key parts of the

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Speaker 2: original agreement. Star is now in a better financial position

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Speaker 2: than it was in March when the initial agreement was signed.

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Speaker 2: Bally's and Ruth Massieson agreed to inject three hundred million

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Speaker 2: into Star in April, saving the Casino group from collapse.

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Speaker 1: Adam, from shining Gold to falling Stars. You should get

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Speaker 1: a job writing headlines. That was perfection, Now a quick one.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned this in yesterday's afternoon report, Adam, but it's

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Speaker 1: worth another quick looks that's a big story. Energy Minister

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Speaker 1: Chris Bowen has announced a review into gas market regulations

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Speaker 1: following the release of an HBLEC report which the government

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Speaker 1: claims shows that short term gas supply is sufficient, although

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Speaker 1: further investment is needed for the longer longer term.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Michael, This review will look at measures introduced by

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Speaker 2: successive governments that aim to safeguard Australia's energy supplies and prices.

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Speaker 2: Mister Bowen reiterated that gas has an important role to

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Speaker 2: play in our energy system as we transition towards eighty

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Speaker 2: two percent renewables. As part of the review, the government

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Speaker 2: will consider establishing an East Coast gas reservation, but it

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Speaker 2: has ruled out imposing domestic supply conditions on existing projects.

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Speaker 1: Now, I mentioned this at the top of the show.

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Speaker 1: Netflix might be the country's biggest streaming service, but free

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Speaker 1: to air TV still rains, accounting for sixty two percent

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Speaker 1: of minutes watched on television. I for one, was quite

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Speaker 1: surprised to learn that it was quite that high. TV

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Speaker 1: measurement company OSTAM, owned by the Free to air Broadcasters,

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Speaker 1: has released its first streamscape report Great Name, which reveals

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Speaker 1: the cumulative minutes of different paid streaming services, free streaming apps, YouTube,

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Speaker 1: and free to air aerial TV watched by Australians. It

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Speaker 1: sounds quite comprehensive.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you can imagine Michael therefore, I love it.

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Speaker 2: Sixty two percent of minutes watched on television, but around

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Speaker 2: the rest of it. Netflix accounts for nine point three

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Speaker 2: percent of all viewing, while major TV network apps that's

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Speaker 2: ABC's iView seven plus nine, Now ten Play and SBS

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Speaker 2: on demand they comprise eight point four percent of all viewing.

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Speaker 2: YouTube is next at seven point seven. Disney Plus and

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Speaker 2: Amazon Prime are both on two point three. Other services

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Speaker 2: such as stan Binge, Apple TV and ko make up

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Speaker 2: a combined eight point five percent. In its report, OSTAM

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Speaker 2: says young demographics skew far higher in streaming YouTube and

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Speaker 2: free streaming apps, whereas aerial TV is more dominant amongst

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Speaker 2: older viewers.

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Speaker 1: You said SBS, without explaining what it stood for, Adam,

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Speaker 1: I'm noticing inconsistencies in your stance here, Oh dear, Okay.

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Speaker 1: Moving to international news now, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney

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Speaker 1: says trade talks with the US have resumed after Canada

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Speaker 1: rescinded its plan to tax American technology firms.

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Speaker 2: Michael, this space just keeps moving so fast. US President

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump over the weekend suspended trade talks with Canada

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Speaker 2: over its plans to continue with its tax on technology firms,

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Speaker 2: which he called quote a direct and blatant attack on

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Speaker 2: our country end of quote. The Canadian government said, in

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Speaker 2: anticipation of a trade deal, Canada would rescind the digital

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Speaker 2: services tax. The tax was set to come into effect

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Speaker 2: on Monday. Carne's office said he and Trump have agreed

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Speaker 2: to resume negotiations.

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Speaker 1: Finally, Adam, an update on one of the more extraordinary

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Speaker 1: stories of the year. Region Cell Bioscience Holdings is a

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Speaker 1: Nasdaq listed Cayman Island incorporated Chinese medicine company. It's really

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Speaker 1: just got everything, hasn't it. It hit the headlines when

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Speaker 1: at share price jumped eighty two thousand percent on the

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Speaker 1: back of zero revenue and zero profit, valuing its majority

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Speaker 1: owner's fortune at thirty three billion US dollars off the

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Speaker 1: back of really not much.

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Speaker 2: That's a big paper evaluation, isn't it for yat gay

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Speaker 2: Owl Now? That was the peak. Shares then tumbled from

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Speaker 2: about US seven hundred and ninety dollars a share to

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Speaker 2: today where they are just US seventeen dollars a share.

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Speaker 2: That fall happened in two weeks, yet still little is

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Speaker 2: known about the company or the trading in the company.

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Speaker 2: The Financial industry regulatory Authority, the watchdog for broker dealers,

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Speaker 2: has repeatedly said small cheap stocks are more susceptible to fraud.

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Speaker 2: These companies can be targets for pump and dump schemes

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Speaker 2: in which frauds does inflate the stock price and then

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Speaker 2: quickly sell their shares.

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Speaker 1: It really is an extraordinary story, though, isn't it. And

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Speaker 1: we talked about this on the weekend edition a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks ago. In fact, I think it probably won

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Speaker 1: the most Remarkable category or something because it was it is.

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Speaker 1: It's one of those ones you just watch it going

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Speaker 1: What on earth is going on here?

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Speaker 2: I can't remember another eighty two thousand percent share price rise?

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Speaker 1: No, no, it kind of puts extraordinary the rises that

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Speaker 1: we were talking about on the ASX over the last financial.

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Speaker 2: One hundred and fifty percent makes it.

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Speaker 1: Look a bit measly, really, doesn't it anyway? Up next

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Speaker 1: is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. I mentioned this

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Speaker 1: before speaking with Roger Montgomery, and if you listen to

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Speaker 1: one interview this year, make it this one because it is.

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Speaker 2: A crack Click on it. It's good.

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Speaker 1: It is really really good. It's coming up in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and grad playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com DoD au, which is also where you

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Speaker 1: sign up for that free daily newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Adam, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the first of July twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fhear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Have a great day.