WEBVTT - Waleed Aly on the shifting political order

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. Last

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<v Speaker 1>weekend South Australian election wasn't just a wipeout for the

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<v Speaker 1>Liberals and a triumph for Labor. It was a sign

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<v Speaker 1>that political discontent is beginning to find a new home

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<v Speaker 1>in an old brand one nation. Pauline Hanson's party show

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<v Speaker 1>just how much room there is for anger on the right,

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<v Speaker 1>even in a traditionally progressive state. But the rise in

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<v Speaker 1>One Nation's popularity isn't discontained to South Australia. Nationally and

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<v Speaker 1>in States Love Victoria, discontent is growing and the far

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<v Speaker 1>right is capitalizing, and with the war and I Run

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<v Speaker 1>exacerbating the cost of living crisis, that frustration with the

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<v Speaker 1>two major parties may only deepened today. Wali d Ali

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<v Speaker 1>on what the South Australian result says about the mood

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<v Speaker 1>of the electorate and where that mood could go next.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Saturday, March twenty eight. Well, the political landscape has

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<v Speaker 1>been shifting for a while in this country, but what

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<v Speaker 1>happened in South Australia last weekend really laid it out

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<v Speaker 1>there for all to sea. I mean, do we even

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<v Speaker 1>have a functional opposition there at this point.

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<v Speaker 2>No, we don't because the Liberal Party has been reduced

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<v Speaker 2>to so few seats. We don't know exactly how many yet,

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<v Speaker 2>but it'll be single digits and one nation if it

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<v Speaker 2>does really, really well out of the parliamentary result, it's

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<v Speaker 2>going to end up with maybe four seats.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's I mean.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul and Hanson referred to the MPs that will be

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<v Speaker 2>left in South Australia's land mines.

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<v Speaker 4>I am leaving tomorrow to go to Canberra to continue

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<v Speaker 4>my duties. But guess what, mate, I'm leaving use some landmines.

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<v Speaker 4>They're called one Nation Nomber's apartment.

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<v Speaker 2>You don't refer to an opposition as land mines, but

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<v Speaker 2>they are the second biggest party on primary vert even

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<v Speaker 2>though that's not how it shook out in the parliamentary

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<v Speaker 2>arithmetic once you do preferences. So I think what was

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<v Speaker 2>really interesting is that Peter malinaskus when he starts talking

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<v Speaker 2>his victory speech, he says there are no such thing

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<v Speaker 2>as safe seats anymore.

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<v Speaker 3>He's right.

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<v Speaker 2>Once you start entering three cornered contests, it only takes

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<v Speaker 2>the votes to fall a certain way and the whole

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<v Speaker 2>thing changes. In a preferential system, so it's really unpredictable.

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<v Speaker 2>Once he started quoting Henry Lawson and talking about patriotism

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<v Speaker 2>and so on. We've seen a little bit of that

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<v Speaker 2>from Anthony Alberinezi as well.

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<v Speaker 5>When a man or nation visits in the heyday of

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<v Speaker 5>its pride, tias the duty of Australians to be kind

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<v Speaker 5>but dignified.

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<v Speaker 2>That's very much directed at the votes that appealing off

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<v Speaker 2>to one nation, some of which have started appealing off

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<v Speaker 2>from labor. You do that if you see one nation

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<v Speaker 2>as your major threat rather than the Coalition.

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<v Speaker 3>I think.

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<v Speaker 1>Are the Liberals the seats they have? Are they there

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<v Speaker 1>partly because of labor and growing preferences?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, so Labor preference the Liberal Party over one nation.

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<v Speaker 2>So yes, the seats one nation has it only has

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<v Speaker 2>because the Liberal Party preferenced one nation over the Labor Party,

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<v Speaker 2>which is a radical departure from the John Howard days.

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<v Speaker 2>Although John Howard I think has now said he would

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<v Speaker 2>do the same, he would preference one nation over labor.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, the preferential voting system does favor the Coalition

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<v Speaker 2>over one nation as it stands, but that could very

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<v Speaker 2>easily flip if one nation can just can consistently get

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<v Speaker 2>above the Liberal Party, and it's not doing that in

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<v Speaker 2>the inner city. It's only doing that really in the

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<v Speaker 2>rural areas and on the suburban fringe. But if you

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<v Speaker 2>can start doing that consistently, then to the extent we

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<v Speaker 2>have a two party system at all, it will be

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<v Speaker 2>labor and one nation. That's the future that we're looking

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<v Speaker 2>at there. It's a long way from happening. A lot

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<v Speaker 2>has to go right for one nation for that to happen,

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<v Speaker 2>but that's a possibility.

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<v Speaker 4>The last time I saw a crowd like this was

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<v Speaker 4>when we won eleven seats in Queensland and nineteen ninety eight,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's how long ago it was.

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<v Speaker 1>You've written that interpreting this election is a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>like a choose your own adventure.

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<v Speaker 2>What did you mean by that, Well, we're in the

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<v Speaker 2>process of one of an old political order sort of

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<v Speaker 2>slowly collapsing, and maybe a new one forming, although even

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<v Speaker 2>that's not clear at this point. I think the metaphor

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<v Speaker 2>I used briefly in that piece was the idea of

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<v Speaker 2>a hall of mirrors. You look around in every image

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<v Speaker 2>is a bit of a mirage. We don't know exactly

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<v Speaker 2>what it means. There are weird shapes being thrown at you.

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<v Speaker 2>There are phantoms everywhere. It's like you're jumping at these phantoms.

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<v Speaker 2>And so what that means is when you get a

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<v Speaker 2>result like you get in South Australia, it could mean anything.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean.

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<v Speaker 2>It could mean the onset of a totally new politic order.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be a blip that historians will find as

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<v Speaker 2>a curious footnote. It could be the complete demise of

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<v Speaker 2>the coalition happening in real time.

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<v Speaker 3>It could be thecent of one nation. Or it could

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<v Speaker 3>mean that.

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<v Speaker 2>It just scorches the earth for some new we've not

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<v Speaker 2>even heard of yet to emerge. And so at this

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<v Speaker 2>point in time, really all you can do is look

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<v Speaker 2>at the imponderables and ponder them.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at the first path that you ruminate

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<v Speaker 1>on in your piece, if you look at the result

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<v Speaker 1>and think the electorate has shifted sharply to the right,

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<v Speaker 1>what is the case for that.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the case for that is that one nation. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>the one nation surge is real. We've seen one nation

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<v Speaker 2>surges before in the polls. They've not turned into votes

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<v Speaker 2>before outside Queensland.

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<v Speaker 3>Now they have.

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<v Speaker 2>South Australia is one of the more progressive states in

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<v Speaker 2>the country in the sense that it tends to vote Labor.

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<v Speaker 2>So the fact that it's done that there is proof

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<v Speaker 2>of a certain concept One Nation has now proven and

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<v Speaker 2>its support is real, and that it can replicate that

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<v Speaker 2>at the ballot box. But the other element of it is,

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<v Speaker 2>once you start looking at the numbers, the swing to

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<v Speaker 2>One Nation was bigger than the swing away from the coalition,

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<v Speaker 2>So it is picking up votes from what you might,

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<v Speaker 2>in very crude terms, call the left, and Peter Malinosk

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<v Speaker 2>has acknowledged this that we've started seeing votes bleed from

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<v Speaker 2>Labor to One Nation. So the overall swing, if you

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<v Speaker 2>look at all the election, the overall swing is probably

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit to the right. There were some really

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<v Speaker 2>weird quirks. Family First, for example, had a two percent

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<v Speaker 2>swing against it, and it only had three point seven

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the vote to begin with, So there are

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<v Speaker 2>little things like that. But if you look at it

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<v Speaker 2>really broadly, the swing has been to the right. So

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<v Speaker 2>you could argue that two things are happening. One that

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<v Speaker 2>the center of gravity is moving slightly to the right,

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<v Speaker 2>but also that within the right, the center gravity is

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<v Speaker 2>moving harder and harder right, or at least to a

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<v Speaker 2>more disillusioned right.

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<v Speaker 1>And what's the other case. What was the other scenario

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<v Speaker 1>that you ruminate on, which is all we can do

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<v Speaker 1>at this point?

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<v Speaker 3>That's right.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the other way of looking at it is, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>there was a bit of a swing right. Yes, there's

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<v Speaker 2>a civil war going on within the right. That means

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<v Speaker 2>that you're getting a certain protest vote there that manifests

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<v Speaker 2>in hard right vote voting. But actually, when you look

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<v Speaker 2>at it overall, the Greens had a swing, not a

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<v Speaker 2>huge one, but it had a swing. Labor had a

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<v Speaker 2>modest swing against it too, and a bit percent. It's

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<v Speaker 2>a first term government, it's meant to have a swing

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<v Speaker 2>against it at the next election.

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<v Speaker 3>If you add the Labor and Green vote.

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<v Speaker 2>Up, it's a bigger share, significantly bigger share than the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal one nation vote. So basically the left vote is

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<v Speaker 2>still a bigger vote in South Australia than the right vote.

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<v Speaker 2>And so it's really then just a question of whether

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<v Speaker 2>or not you think you're at the beginning of a

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<v Speaker 2>process of seeing let the Labor vote lead to one nation,

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<v Speaker 2>or you think the center of gravity in Australian politics,

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<v Speaker 2>the place where you win is still the center slash

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<v Speaker 2>maybe even slightly to the left at the moment, and

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<v Speaker 2>I'll give you an answer a couple of years.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh thanks, We'll just keep your window open. Your broader point,

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<v Speaker 1>as you've outlined, is that you can look at the

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<v Speaker 1>same result and come up with a very very very

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<v Speaker 1>different conclusions, which is so twenty twenty six. So I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to put you under the pump here. So, having

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<v Speaker 1>explored all the options, what do you think this election

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<v Speaker 1>is really telling us.

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<v Speaker 2>I think what it's telling us is that the one

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<v Speaker 2>nation thing is real, and it's real across the country.

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<v Speaker 2>I voted labor every state election leading up to it,

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<v Speaker 2>but this time I voted for one nation.

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<v Speaker 3>The young ones can't buy houses now.

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<v Speaker 2>There's just they're flooding Australia with immigrants.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not racist.

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<v Speaker 6>I don't have a problem with it, but I just

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<v Speaker 6>have a problem with the numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's telling us that elections are still for

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<v Speaker 2>the moment one in the center.

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<v Speaker 3>The thing that it is not.

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<v Speaker 2>Telling us, which we will get a better answer to,

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<v Speaker 2>probably in Victoria in November and in New South Wales

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<v Speaker 2>in March, is whether or not this is now at

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<v Speaker 2>its ceiling.

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<v Speaker 3>And my main variable.

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<v Speaker 2>Here is the upheaval that the war in Iran is unleashing.

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<v Speaker 2>I think everyone's aware that it's going to hurt, and

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<v Speaker 2>we're seeing petrol prices go up, and anyone who thinks

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<v Speaker 2>about that for a moment will see that that flows

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<v Speaker 2>through to everything else, because anything that required transport, like food,

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<v Speaker 2>then go up. But like fertilizer, I think it's something

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<v Speaker 2>like eighty percent of austraight as fertilizer goes through the

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<v Speaker 2>straight upore moves. Think about what happens if we can't

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<v Speaker 2>get fertilizer and the level of desperation that that unleashes,

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<v Speaker 2>and then think about the political history of radicalization within

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<v Speaker 2>populations when serious economic straits hit. If it plays out

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<v Speaker 2>that way, then we're only at the beginning. Actually, But

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<v Speaker 2>if things go seriously bad, I could easily I could

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<v Speaker 2>see a scenario where one nation is outpolling the Labor

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<v Speaker 2>Party and has the highest primary vote in the country.

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<v Speaker 2>I could see that scenario occurring. It'll depend a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit on just how bad the economic situation.

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<v Speaker 1>Gets coming up. Is this the beginning of the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the political order as we know it? Well, you

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned Victoria, but what's the real next big test for

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<v Speaker 1>one nation. How obstructive is Farah. The by election in

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<v Speaker 1>Susan Lee's old seat going to be, for instance, later

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<v Speaker 1>this month. Will it give us an indication as to

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<v Speaker 1>whether the swing to the right when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>grievance is a national trend.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think Pharaoh.

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<v Speaker 2>Will give us an indication of the state of the

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<v Speaker 2>civil war within conservative politics. It won't give us much

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<v Speaker 2>of an indication of the extent to which the bleeding

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<v Speaker 2>will now come from the Labor Party, which is really

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<v Speaker 2>the next big question as far as the center of

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<v Speaker 2>gravity of Australian politics as a whole.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the rest of Austroa is going to be

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<v Speaker 4>watching what's happening here tonight, and I think it's a

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<v Speaker 4>very important to see for Farah. And I also will

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<v Speaker 4>set a strong team for Victoria. So if you're from Victoria,

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<v Speaker 4>you're watching this, We're coming to support you down there,

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<v Speaker 4>Sam Candos.

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<v Speaker 2>Victoria is a much more interesting case study, I think,

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<v Speaker 2>because Victoria is the most urbanized state in the country,

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<v Speaker 2>it's the most progressive state in the country. It's also

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<v Speaker 2>the state that's the most bonkers because of its experience

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<v Speaker 2>in COVID. Speaking yourself, well, yeah, indeed, but it's not

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<v Speaker 2>a surprise that you know, when Neo Nazis are getting

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<v Speaker 2>up on stage at rallies. It's happening in Victoria. There's

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<v Speaker 2>a reason that that sort of thing's happening. So it's

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<v Speaker 2>a really interesting test case. And also the Labor government

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<v Speaker 2>is deeply unpopular and the coalition is in disarray. So

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<v Speaker 2>on the one hand, it's not favorable conditions for one nation.

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<v Speaker 2>On the other hand, it's perfect conditions for one nation,

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<v Speaker 2>and you see which one of those will prevail. And

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<v Speaker 2>then New South Wales is fascinating because a little tiny

0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:42.920
<v Speaker 2>quirk which doesn't get any attention really is New South Wales.

0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:46.439
<v Speaker 2>You don't have to vote preferentially. You can just mark

0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:49.960
<v Speaker 2>one and leave it at that. So it's all to

0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.520
<v Speaker 2>be discovered and they're the two big data points. And also,

0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:54.720
<v Speaker 2>don't forget those elections will come when we're much further

0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.160
<v Speaker 2>down the economic road of the consequences of what's happening

0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:00.920
<v Speaker 2>in Iran. Maybe the war's still going, maybe it's over

0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:04.040
<v Speaker 2>all these sorts of things. That's where things will be

0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:06.880
<v Speaker 2>really instructive and will have a much clearer sense of

0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:07.959
<v Speaker 2>the path.

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:12.080
<v Speaker 1>That Australia's treading currently one nation polling around twenty three

0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 1>point five percent nationally. You mentioned that that could easily

0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:21.400
<v Speaker 1>grow given circumstance, and things are ominous right now. What

0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:22.520
<v Speaker 1>do you think the appeal is.

0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 2>It's years and years ago, when Brexit happened and Trump

0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:31.000
<v Speaker 2>happened and Bolsonaro was elected in Brazil. I heard someone

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:34.600
<v Speaker 2>weirdly on a sports podcast make the point that if

0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.880
<v Speaker 2>you give people a big button that says f off

0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.240
<v Speaker 2>right now, they will hit that button. And that people

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.680
<v Speaker 2>are hitting that button. It's pretty clear when you look

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.719
<v Speaker 2>at the reasons people give for voting one nation at

0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:54.840
<v Speaker 2>the moment, they're not detailed, so they don't go, well,

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, I'm concerned about this aspect of the economy,

0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.679
<v Speaker 2>and they've got this policy that responds to this thing,

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:03.240
<v Speaker 2>so broad things maybe to do with migration, actually less

0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:06.000
<v Speaker 2>to do with migration than you might assume when you're

0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:09.840
<v Speaker 2>just reading the reporting. It's very clearly a protest vote

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 2>that is based on affectation. There is a sense of

0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:16.960
<v Speaker 2>they're real, they care about the country, and we're desperate

0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.120
<v Speaker 2>and we don't like the offering, and they're there and

0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.880
<v Speaker 2>they've been there and consistent for thirty years.

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.320
<v Speaker 1>Everyone knows who Paul Enhancing is now.

0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the interesting thing is that what nation sort of

0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.400
<v Speaker 2>surged into the twenties and it has kind of stayed there.

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:34.920
<v Speaker 2>So maybe that's the limit. And that's the argument that

0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 2>you could run that you know, we've hit the limit.

0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 2>It's just that if we're going to have another really

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:43.160
<v Speaker 2>bad economic turn, then we might see that limit raised.

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.640
<v Speaker 1>Save the support does stay at twenty three to twenty

0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:49.040
<v Speaker 1>four percent, what does that mean in terms of the parliament.

0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.280
<v Speaker 1>What would the Parliament look like federally if their support

0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.360
<v Speaker 1>was to stay at that level, and what kind of

0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 1>power on influence could that actually translate to, Well.

0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 2>It translates to obvious power in the Senate, in the House,

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:04.760
<v Speaker 2>not necessarily One nation would then be really at the

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:06.319
<v Speaker 2>mercy of Liberal preferences.

0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:08.080
<v Speaker 3>If that's the case, then.

0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.720
<v Speaker 2>Really it comes down to will the Liberal Party hand

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 2>one nation any seats? Not just Liberal Party by though

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.440
<v Speaker 2>the Nats as well. Now that's where things get interesting.

0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 2>I think there's a live debate within the Coalition at

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.040
<v Speaker 2>the moment as to what the correct course of action is.

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 2>I happened to interview Dan teen, a shadow Ministry of

0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:28.880
<v Speaker 2>the coalition earlier this week, and he surprised me with

0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 2>the strateacy of his language. He basically said, well, the

0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:36.040
<v Speaker 2>Greens and Labor gang up on the Conservatives in the

0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.680
<v Speaker 2>way they do preferences, and he used the phrase that

0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 2>the Conservatives have to hunt in packs to get rid

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 2>of labor governments. I don't know if he'll win that argument,

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 2>but if he does, then you'll start seeing one Nation

0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:50.520
<v Speaker 2>win seats.

0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:53.040
<v Speaker 1>I meaning in Victoria. Jeff Kennett, you know, the out

0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:57.360
<v Speaker 1>of statesman of the Victorian Liberal Party, is very openly

0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:00.600
<v Speaker 1>saying that Jess Wilson the Liberal Party should form a

0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>coalition with one Nation.

0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 6>I'm not necessarily saying there has to be agreements between

0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.000
<v Speaker 6>the parties and that includes one Nation, but I hope

0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 6>all of those other parties will say no to corruption

0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:16.240
<v Speaker 6>and therefore will support each other.

0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 1>Given what's happened in South Australia. Is that something that

0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:21.640
<v Speaker 1>you think they'll be seriously considering.

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 2>So the question I would ask is, sure, I can

0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 2>understand you want to combine, but if you're actually fighting

0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 2>over the same turf anyway, how does that expand your

0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:34.120
<v Speaker 2>parliamentary footprint? How does a liberal national one nation start

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:37.720
<v Speaker 2>winning back presence in the cities. I get where Jeff

0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 2>Kinnet's coming from in that his whole thing is, this

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.880
<v Speaker 2>is a terrible government in Victoria. It's corrupt, there's all

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 2>sorts of horrible things. Frankly, most Victorians would probably agree

0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 2>with that assessment. His next step is to say it

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:50.120
<v Speaker 2>therefore must go by any means, and if a coalition

0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 2>with one nation is the means to do that, we

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 2>should do that. I'm just a little more skeptical as

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 2>to whether or not that would actually achieve the results,

0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 2>or maybe what you get is what you got in

0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:02.960
<v Speaker 2>South Australia, where it actually increases the Labor majority.

0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:05.240
<v Speaker 3>We're getting at this weird situation where.

0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.840
<v Speaker 2>Labor doesn't have a huge amount of support in terms

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:11.880
<v Speaker 2>of its primary vote at any level of government, but

0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:17.040
<v Speaker 2>its parliamentary dominance is the stuff we've never seen before,

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.280
<v Speaker 2>and that's a weird paradox.

0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:23.160
<v Speaker 1>If they have a big but shallow electoral pool. Finally,

0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:26.280
<v Speaker 1>while lead, what's your feeling about the permanency of this shift?

0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:29.440
<v Speaker 1>Do you think it's something that we're going to be

0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 1>dealing with used down the track, or could you even

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 1>go as far as to say that this could potentially

0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:36.040
<v Speaker 1>be the end of the two party system.

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:38.120
<v Speaker 2>I don't think it's the end of the two party

0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:42.680
<v Speaker 2>system just because preferential voting makes a two party system

0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:45.320
<v Speaker 2>really hard to dismantle. It might be a change in

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.920
<v Speaker 2>the two party system. You know, there is a possibility

0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:52.080
<v Speaker 2>that one nation becomes the conservative alternative. That's possible, or

0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:56.440
<v Speaker 2>some new conservative formation arises. It's really hard to imagine

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.400
<v Speaker 2>what a more than two party system in a preferential

0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:03.960
<v Speaker 2>voting system looks like, other than perpetual labor governments. And

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:06.280
<v Speaker 2>I don't think you're going to get perpetual labor governments

0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:08.920
<v Speaker 2>just because that's just not the way politics. Eventually, people

0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:13.119
<v Speaker 2>get fed up enough that something changes. That said, I

0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:15.280
<v Speaker 2>can see us moving into a scenario where there are

0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:17.439
<v Speaker 2>all sorts of minority governments, but it would still be

0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:21.719
<v Speaker 2>I think two major or dominant parties in that scenario.

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 3>No doubt, events.

0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:24.919
<v Speaker 2>Will make a fool of me, because that's just the

0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:28.720
<v Speaker 2>way that events are, and we are in a particularly

0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:35.359
<v Speaker 2>chaotic period. I don't think the shift in people's sentiments,

0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:38.720
<v Speaker 2>in the sentiment of the electorate that embraces what were

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.960
<v Speaker 2>once more fringe ideas and more fringe politics I don't

0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 2>think that will stop. I think that's here to stay,

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.439
<v Speaker 2>because there's no sign the upheavel's going away.

0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:51.040
<v Speaker 3>It's now global in nature.

0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.439
<v Speaker 1>Well, thank you so much for your time, and go.

0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:58.480
<v Speaker 3>Tykes go takes. Probably not the best year for that either.

0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:17.879
<v Speaker 1>Seven Am is a daily show from Solstice Media. Is

0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:22.440
<v Speaker 1>made by Atticus Bastow, Ariel Richards, Chris Dangate, Crystal Color,

0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:29.880
<v Speaker 1>Nicole Johnston, Travis Evans, Zotonfecho and me Daniel James. Our

0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:32.159
<v Speaker 1>theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of

0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:36.000
<v Speaker 1>Envelope Portio. Thanks for listening to seven Am this week.

0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:38.040
<v Speaker 1>Please have yourself a great weekend