1 00:00:03,490 --> 00:00:07,260 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. Last 2 00:00:07,260 --> 00:00:10,310 Sean Aylmer: week saw the release of new population data and as 3 00:00:10,310 --> 00:00:14,440 Sean Aylmer: expected Australia's growth has come to a halt. The data 4 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,020 Sean Aylmer: from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the first to 5 00:00:17,020 --> 00:00:19,870 Sean Aylmer: show the full extent of the pandemic, covering the year 6 00:00:19,870 --> 00:00:23,870 Sean Aylmer: to March 31. Nationally, our population grew by just over 7 00:00:23,870 --> 00:00:28,650 Sean Aylmer: 35,000 people to 25.7 million. Whenever we have questions about 8 00:00:28,650 --> 00:00:30,960 Sean Aylmer: population and what it all means for business and the 9 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,340 Sean Aylmer: economy we go to Simon Kuestenmacher. Simon is a co- 10 00:00:34,340 --> 00:00:37,600 Sean Aylmer: founder of The Demographics Group and my guest again this morning. Simon, 11 00:00:37,740 --> 00:00:38,709 Sean Aylmer: welcome back to Fear and Greed. 12 00:00:39,140 --> 00:00:40,420 Simon Kuestenmacher: Ah, thanks for having me back. 13 00:00:40,580 --> 00:00:42,770 Sean Aylmer: Take me through the numbers. Were there any surprises in 14 00:00:42,770 --> 00:00:44,169 Sean Aylmer: the ABS data last week? 15 00:00:44,690 --> 00:00:48,699 Simon Kuestenmacher: No, there wouldn't be necessarily surprises I'd say, it's just 16 00:00:48,970 --> 00:00:52,320 Simon Kuestenmacher: a reality check to see those figures that you expect, 17 00:00:52,610 --> 00:00:55,730 Simon Kuestenmacher: you know black on screen, if you will, and 35, 000 18 00:00:55,730 --> 00:00:59,550 Simon Kuestenmacher: population growth is tiny, considering that in a non- pandemic 19 00:00:59,550 --> 00:01:05,500 Simon Kuestenmacher: year we have around 300,000 to 400,000 growth. So, this is an order 20 00:01:05,500 --> 00:01:10,720 Simon Kuestenmacher: of magnitude smaller, it's not just yet population decline, but 21 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:15,010 Simon Kuestenmacher: that said it is of course slowing the economic growth significantly. 22 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,770 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so let's look at immigration. What's happening there? 23 00:01:19,370 --> 00:01:23,709 Simon Kuestenmacher: Well, once again, usually, in a good year, two thirds 24 00:01:23,709 --> 00:01:28,640 Simon Kuestenmacher: of our population growth comes from net overseas migration, and 25 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:33,090 Simon Kuestenmacher: we've seen a decline by almost 100, 000 migrants in that 26 00:01:33,090 --> 00:01:35,730 Simon Kuestenmacher: year. That means instead of adding to the migrant stock, 27 00:01:35,970 --> 00:01:39,290 Simon Kuestenmacher: we're taking away. People go home after they've finished their 28 00:01:39,290 --> 00:01:42,610 Simon Kuestenmacher: university studies, after their work visas might not have gotten 29 00:01:42,790 --> 00:01:45,840 Simon Kuestenmacher: renewed, or maybe they just are homesick and want to 30 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:50,990 Simon Kuestenmacher: go back. And that of course hits states differently, you 31 00:01:50,990 --> 00:01:55,059 Simon Kuestenmacher: know, Victoria is of course the big loser in this 32 00:01:55,060 --> 00:01:59,000 Simon Kuestenmacher: whole population game at the moment, simply because we've been 33 00:01:59,060 --> 00:02:03,530 Simon Kuestenmacher: in lockdown the longest in Melbourne, in Victoria, and then the 34 00:02:03,530 --> 00:02:06,320 Simon Kuestenmacher: motivation for people to stay on, if they were deciding 35 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:08,240 Simon Kuestenmacher: anyways to go back is of course very small. 36 00:02:08,460 --> 00:02:11,660 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so Victoria is hardest hit. Queensland is where there 37 00:02:11,660 --> 00:02:13,140 Sean Aylmer: was most growth, is that right? 38 00:02:13,610 --> 00:02:18,490 Simon Kuestenmacher: Absolutely, and the growth of Queensland is solely due to 39 00:02:18,540 --> 00:02:23,510 Simon Kuestenmacher: Victorians. Whatever way you look at this it's Victorians, it's 40 00:02:23,510 --> 00:02:26,260 Simon Kuestenmacher: got net interstate migration, people moving from one state to 41 00:02:26,260 --> 00:02:30,609 Simon Kuestenmacher: the next, it's Victorians seeking the sunshine. It's always a 42 00:02:30,610 --> 00:02:34,190 Simon Kuestenmacher: trend, so it's nothing new. There's this old joke in property, " 43 00:02:34,500 --> 00:02:36,470 Simon Kuestenmacher: Oh, he died so young, he hadn't even moved to 44 00:02:36,470 --> 00:02:41,160 Simon Kuestenmacher: Queensland yet," that it's still correct, and we do see older 45 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,950 Simon Kuestenmacher: Victorians moving to Queensland as expected, but most importantly, we 46 00:02:44,990 --> 00:02:48,120 Simon Kuestenmacher: see more and more young families picking their things up and 47 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,700 Simon Kuestenmacher: moving to Queensland, which is a big shift. And it 48 00:02:50,700 --> 00:02:56,100 Simon Kuestenmacher: is actually benefiting Queensland significantly to get significant population growth, 49 00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:00,220 Simon Kuestenmacher: in times of a stagnant population, which is a great 50 00:03:00,250 --> 00:03:03,500 Simon Kuestenmacher: deal. Queensland is the one big winner in Australia at 51 00:03:03,500 --> 00:03:03,900 Simon Kuestenmacher: the moment. 52 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,370 Sean Aylmer: Okay, what about new south Wales? Where does it sit? 53 00:03:06,730 --> 00:03:10,180 Simon Kuestenmacher: Well, New South Wales in terms of losing migrants to 54 00:03:10,180 --> 00:03:13,560 Simon Kuestenmacher: other states, it sits at the same level as Victoria. 55 00:03:13,870 --> 00:03:18,590 Simon Kuestenmacher: But that is actually still a good sign because New 56 00:03:18,590 --> 00:03:21,339 Simon Kuestenmacher: South Wales is always losing people to other states. That's 57 00:03:21,340 --> 00:03:24,930 Simon Kuestenmacher: because New South Wales is the launch pad state. If 58 00:03:24,930 --> 00:03:28,270 Simon Kuestenmacher: you are a migrant, you don't know anything about Australia, 59 00:03:28,270 --> 00:03:31,960 Simon Kuestenmacher: you only know the Opera House from the internet, and 60 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:33,389 Simon Kuestenmacher: so you move to Sydney first. 61 00:03:33,389 --> 00:03:33,419 Sean Aylmer: Yep, yep. 62 00:03:33,700 --> 00:03:35,650 Simon Kuestenmacher: So we always see that they have by far the 63 00:03:35,650 --> 00:03:38,880 Simon Kuestenmacher: largest intake of migrants and then those migrants over time 64 00:03:39,030 --> 00:03:40,120 Simon Kuestenmacher: move to other states. 65 00:03:40,430 --> 00:03:42,930 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so what's happening with the natural birth rate, where's 66 00:03:42,930 --> 00:03:43,410 Sean Aylmer: that up to? 67 00:03:43,790 --> 00:03:48,230 Simon Kuestenmacher: Well, we are now seeing a record low birth rates 68 00:03:48,260 --> 00:03:49,100 Simon Kuestenmacher: of just at. 69 00:03:49,100 --> 00:03:51,430 Sean Aylmer: I thought there was supposed to be a COVID boom, Simon. 70 00:03:51,500 --> 00:03:54,570 Simon Kuestenmacher: Exactly and I remember those articles that were written at 71 00:03:54,580 --> 00:03:57,070 Simon Kuestenmacher: the start of the pandemic, when they said, "There's a 72 00:03:57,070 --> 00:03:59,580 Simon Kuestenmacher: lockdown and surely enough in nine months time, we will 73 00:03:59,580 --> 00:04:03,030 Simon Kuestenmacher: see a baby boom," as if the only thing we 74 00:04:03,030 --> 00:04:06,300 Simon Kuestenmacher: can think of doing once we're in lockdown is to procreate. 75 00:04:07,530 --> 00:04:11,650 Simon Kuestenmacher: The opposite was the case. We do know this from history, 76 00:04:11,710 --> 00:04:14,680 Simon Kuestenmacher: we do know this from economic crises and pandemics throughout 77 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:18,490 Simon Kuestenmacher: the world, that in times of economic uncertainty, people have 78 00:04:18,660 --> 00:04:20,210 Simon Kuestenmacher: fewer rather than more kids. 79 00:04:20,540 --> 00:04:22,050 Sean Aylmer: And that is an economic factor? 80 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,800 Simon Kuestenmacher: Fewer births, it is in a sense, but it's nothing 81 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,070 Simon Kuestenmacher: that hits us right now. So if you have fewer births, 82 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,940 Simon Kuestenmacher: were not talking about millions fewer people, this is just 83 00:04:31,940 --> 00:04:34,339 Simon Kuestenmacher: a couple of families that don't have the third kid, 84 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,040 Simon Kuestenmacher: that don't have the second kid, probably a couple of 85 00:04:37,110 --> 00:04:40,960 Simon Kuestenmacher: couples that will push out first childbirth and wait another 86 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,690 Simon Kuestenmacher: year or two. The consequences of this are only visible 87 00:04:45,300 --> 00:04:47,950 Simon Kuestenmacher: a couple of years down the track, when we realise 88 00:04:48,089 --> 00:04:49,820 Simon Kuestenmacher: that we don't have as many school kids as we 89 00:04:49,820 --> 00:04:53,270 Simon Kuestenmacher: might've expected, and in 20 years time, we don't have 90 00:04:53,270 --> 00:04:56,680 Simon Kuestenmacher: the workforce that we would have expected. So in Australia, 91 00:04:56,690 --> 00:05:00,159 Simon Kuestenmacher: thankfully enough, we don't need to be concerned too much 92 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,710 Simon Kuestenmacher: about the birth rate because we can always correct population 93 00:05:03,710 --> 00:05:08,380 Simon Kuestenmacher: growth figures through migration, through letting overseas migrants into the country, 94 00:05:08,670 --> 00:05:13,240 Simon Kuestenmacher: and then we can create a balance of workers to retirees, 95 00:05:13,550 --> 00:05:16,200 Simon Kuestenmacher: in order to make sure that we can actually afford 96 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:20,630 Simon Kuestenmacher: to retire all those old Australians that are hitting 65 97 00:05:20,630 --> 00:05:21,220 Simon Kuestenmacher: very soon. 98 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,610 Sean Aylmer: Okay, stay with me Simon. We'll be back in a 99 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:23,890 Sean Aylmer: minute. 100 00:05:29,029 --> 00:05:32,429 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Simon Kuestenmacher, co- founder of the 101 00:05:32,430 --> 00:05:35,650 Sean Aylmer: Demographics Group. I remember when my first, my eldest children 102 00:05:35,650 --> 00:05:37,860 Sean Aylmer: were born, and so this is early noughties, it was 103 00:05:37,860 --> 00:05:41,010 Sean Aylmer: a period where there had been a boom in birth 104 00:05:41,010 --> 00:05:44,450 Sean Aylmer: rates in the early noughties, what's happened in births in 105 00:05:44,450 --> 00:05:45,849 Sean Aylmer: the last 10 or 15 years? 106 00:05:46,170 --> 00:05:49,029 Simon Kuestenmacher: Well, one of the big trends is that we have 107 00:05:49,029 --> 00:05:54,710 Simon Kuestenmacher: seen the millennial generation entering the family formation stage of the cycle, of 108 00:05:54,850 --> 00:05:55,300 Simon Kuestenmacher: the life cycle. 109 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:57,930 Sean Aylmer: They'd be too selfish to have a baby wouldn't they? 110 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:02,410 Simon Kuestenmacher: It's not necessarily selfish, there are really bizarre concerns, if 111 00:06:02,410 --> 00:06:04,960 Simon Kuestenmacher: you will, in there that we have to take seriously, when 112 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,000 Simon Kuestenmacher: you talk about millennials, not wanting to add kids to 113 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:08,490 Simon Kuestenmacher: the planet. 114 00:06:08,490 --> 00:06:08,510 Sean Aylmer: Ah. 115 00:06:08,529 --> 00:06:12,710 Simon Kuestenmacher: Because this is viewed through a climate change lens. 116 00:06:12,770 --> 00:06:12,789 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 117 00:06:12,790 --> 00:06:16,820 Simon Kuestenmacher: And then you say, additional people do actually hurt the 118 00:06:16,820 --> 00:06:19,470 Simon Kuestenmacher: planet, but this is where we need to introduce the 119 00:06:19,470 --> 00:06:22,940 Simon Kuestenmacher: topic of peak humanity to the discussion. That's the big 120 00:06:22,940 --> 00:06:25,909 Simon Kuestenmacher: question. When will we reach the highest number of people 121 00:06:25,910 --> 00:06:29,370 Simon Kuestenmacher: on the planet ever? And we can now be pretty 122 00:06:29,370 --> 00:06:33,620 Simon Kuestenmacher: certain, according to most of the recent demographic research that 123 00:06:33,620 --> 00:06:37,290 Simon Kuestenmacher: we will reach peak humanity in the 2060s. 124 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:37,880 Sean Aylmer: Wow. 125 00:06:37,970 --> 00:06:43,470 Simon Kuestenmacher: So around 40, 50 years or thereabouts, until we reached peak humanity. 126 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:48,130 Sean Aylmer: So are the fastest growing countries due to natural causes, 127 00:06:48,460 --> 00:06:49,470 Sean Aylmer: poorer countries? 128 00:06:49,740 --> 00:06:54,070 Simon Kuestenmacher: Yes, absolutely. So traditionally you can say, the richer a 129 00:06:54,070 --> 00:06:56,420 Simon Kuestenmacher: woman is the fewer kids she has. 130 00:06:56,510 --> 00:06:56,820 Sean Aylmer: Right. 131 00:06:56,900 --> 00:07:00,190 Simon Kuestenmacher: And as the world gets richer, which is still very 132 00:07:00,190 --> 00:07:02,900 Simon Kuestenmacher: much the case, even though you might see videos of 133 00:07:02,900 --> 00:07:06,909 Simon Kuestenmacher: hunger and despair across the globe, overall the world is 134 00:07:06,910 --> 00:07:10,720 Simon Kuestenmacher: getting richer, so that means birth rates drop. And it's 135 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,040 Simon Kuestenmacher: not just wealth, but it's also education that makes birth 136 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,990 Simon Kuestenmacher: rates drop. And with access to the internet, education gets 137 00:07:18,990 --> 00:07:22,650 Simon Kuestenmacher: better across the world, more people get educated, more people you 138 00:07:22,870 --> 00:07:26,390 Simon Kuestenmacher: know buy into the smaller family idea. Are we talking 139 00:07:26,390 --> 00:07:29,700 Simon Kuestenmacher: about not just single child families, but we're talking about 140 00:07:30,050 --> 00:07:31,071 Simon Kuestenmacher: don't have seven or eight kids. 141 00:07:31,071 --> 00:07:31,501 Sean Aylmer: Yeah, yeah. 142 00:07:31,740 --> 00:07:36,680 Simon Kuestenmacher: And by now demographers agree that all the big African 143 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:41,390 Simon Kuestenmacher: nations will see much lower birth rates than expected maybe 144 00:07:41,390 --> 00:07:42,410 Simon Kuestenmacher: a decade or two ago. 145 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,020 Sean Aylmer: That might not be a bad thing. 146 00:07:45,010 --> 00:07:48,250 Simon Kuestenmacher: Yes, and from a climate change perspective, I think you 147 00:07:48,250 --> 00:07:51,830 Simon Kuestenmacher: can say, or a planetarial resource perspective, you can say that's 148 00:07:51,830 --> 00:07:56,370 Simon Kuestenmacher: probably a good thing, so, at some stage we can manage to, we can just sort our 149 00:07:56,370 --> 00:07:57,220 Simon Kuestenmacher: resources better. 150 00:07:57,400 --> 00:07:57,580 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 151 00:07:57,700 --> 00:08:00,780 Simon Kuestenmacher: But, is it a better thing? Who knows? There's no 152 00:08:00,850 --> 00:08:05,200 Simon Kuestenmacher: magic number from a purely selfish Australia perspective, we want 153 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,930 Simon Kuestenmacher: to understand, what do we need? There's no reason Australia 154 00:08:08,930 --> 00:08:12,870 Simon Kuestenmacher: couldn't successfully house, theoretically, 100 million people. 155 00:08:13,010 --> 00:08:13,220 Sean Aylmer: Yep. 156 00:08:13,290 --> 00:08:17,120 Simon Kuestenmacher: There's no argument against this. It's only water management that 157 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,170 Simon Kuestenmacher: is an issue from that perspective. So we need to 158 00:08:19,170 --> 00:08:21,720 Simon Kuestenmacher: make sure how many people do we need in the 159 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,740 Simon Kuestenmacher: country to make sure that we can afford sustainable lifestyle 160 00:08:25,740 --> 00:08:27,390 Simon Kuestenmacher: for all, economically speaking. 161 00:08:27,690 --> 00:08:30,300 Sean Aylmer: So just bringing this all back to 2021 or 2022, 162 00:08:30,300 --> 00:08:33,620 Sean Aylmer: when international borders reopen, what do you think will happen, 163 00:08:33,620 --> 00:08:35,440 Sean Aylmer: and will we get back to those growth rates we 164 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:36,109 Sean Aylmer: saw before? 165 00:08:36,410 --> 00:08:39,270 Simon Kuestenmacher: The very first thing that will happen is that we'll 166 00:08:39,270 --> 00:08:43,700 Simon Kuestenmacher: let international students in, simply because they move into the 167 00:08:43,700 --> 00:08:47,179 Simon Kuestenmacher: empty parts of town, they tend to rent apartments in 168 00:08:47,179 --> 00:08:49,309 Simon Kuestenmacher: the inner city that are vacant at the moment. So 169 00:08:49,309 --> 00:08:52,010 Simon Kuestenmacher: they'll go back, as many as they want, we'll let 170 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,170 Simon Kuestenmacher: them in. So they're cash cows, so to speak. 171 00:08:55,179 --> 00:08:55,199 Sean Aylmer: Yeah, yeah. 172 00:08:55,610 --> 00:08:57,800 Simon Kuestenmacher: They bring in an awful lot of money, so that's excellent. 173 00:08:58,070 --> 00:09:02,189 Simon Kuestenmacher: And then we will see a very targeted campaign for 174 00:09:02,190 --> 00:09:05,410 Simon Kuestenmacher: skilled migrants because we won't let pre- pandemic levels of 175 00:09:05,410 --> 00:09:08,160 Simon Kuestenmacher: migrants in at the first year when we opened the borders, 176 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,540 Simon Kuestenmacher: there'll be significantly fewer people, and you will then see 177 00:09:11,540 --> 00:09:14,880 Simon Kuestenmacher: high priority jobs being added to the skilled migration list. And so we 178 00:09:15,250 --> 00:09:19,130 Simon Kuestenmacher: have industries fight over which jobs will be added to the list. 179 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,010 Simon Kuestenmacher: There are lots of high- tech sectors where we need 180 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,860 Simon Kuestenmacher: heaps more programmers and so on, but you'll also see 181 00:09:24,860 --> 00:09:29,559 Simon Kuestenmacher: the agricultural sector complaining about a massive lack of low- 182 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:31,689 Simon Kuestenmacher: skilled workers to help out with harvests. 183 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,840 Sean Aylmer: Okay, and this is all based, I mean you actually 184 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,540 Sean Aylmer: wrote something in the New Daily, around this whole five- 185 00:09:37,540 --> 00:09:39,990 Sean Aylmer: year employment projections from the National Skills Commission. 186 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:44,250 Simon Kuestenmacher: Absolutely, and when we look at those forecasts, we see 187 00:09:44,250 --> 00:09:47,370 Simon Kuestenmacher: that more than half of the jobs that are projected 188 00:09:47,370 --> 00:09:50,840 Simon Kuestenmacher: to be added over the next five years are so- 189 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,090 Simon Kuestenmacher: called Skill Level 1 jobs, jobs that require a university 190 00:09:54,090 --> 00:09:58,620 Simon Kuestenmacher: level education. That means we need highly, highly skilled people 191 00:09:58,660 --> 00:10:01,329 Simon Kuestenmacher: to fill the job openings that are about to be 192 00:10:01,330 --> 00:10:04,510 Simon Kuestenmacher: there, and that's very hard to do with the people 193 00:10:04,510 --> 00:10:07,770 Simon Kuestenmacher: that are already in the country, it's actually absolutely impossible 194 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,100 Simon Kuestenmacher: to do so. So we will need high levels of 195 00:10:11,100 --> 00:10:13,740 Simon Kuestenmacher: migrants, and the big question that we need to ask 196 00:10:13,740 --> 00:10:16,610 Simon Kuestenmacher: ourselves, then if we try to forecast the future, is 197 00:10:17,030 --> 00:10:19,790 Simon Kuestenmacher: do those people want to come to Australia still? 198 00:10:19,929 --> 00:10:20,130 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 199 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,580 Simon Kuestenmacher: And that's where we, I think in Australia are guilty 200 00:10:23,650 --> 00:10:27,370 Simon Kuestenmacher: of selling ourselves short. We are falling into the trap 201 00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:31,449 Simon Kuestenmacher: of talking negatively about our cities as hell holes to 202 00:10:31,450 --> 00:10:33,890 Simon Kuestenmacher: live in and whatever, and this is just part of 203 00:10:33,890 --> 00:10:37,280 Simon Kuestenmacher: the big lockdown fatigue or something, where we are really, for 204 00:10:38,220 --> 00:10:41,670 Simon Kuestenmacher: no reason and actually harmful reasons in the long run, 205 00:10:41,870 --> 00:10:45,460 Simon Kuestenmacher: are talking down our cities, that are actually the big 206 00:10:45,460 --> 00:10:48,630 Simon Kuestenmacher: draw card, because Melbourne and Sydney, if you remember pre- 207 00:10:48,630 --> 00:10:52,479 Simon Kuestenmacher: pandemic times, were always called the most livable cities in 208 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:57,380 Simon Kuestenmacher: the world and thereabouts, and you want to harness, protect, 209 00:10:57,570 --> 00:11:01,720 Simon Kuestenmacher: rebuild this reputation with all force to make sure that 210 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,250 Simon Kuestenmacher: we can get enough highly skilled people back into the country. 211 00:11:05,780 --> 00:11:08,640 Sean Aylmer: Now, Simon, last month I was filling in my Census 212 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,640 Sean Aylmer: and I was thinking about you because a demographer must 213 00:11:12,730 --> 00:11:15,020 Sean Aylmer: love the release of Census data. 214 00:11:15,510 --> 00:11:19,730 Simon Kuestenmacher: Oh, absolutely, and I make the same mistake every time 215 00:11:19,730 --> 00:11:21,410 Simon Kuestenmacher: the Census day is upon us, that it gets really 216 00:11:21,410 --> 00:11:24,570 Simon Kuestenmacher: excited about Census day. You fill out the Census form 217 00:11:24,570 --> 00:11:26,210 Simon Kuestenmacher: with a lot of excitement. 218 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:26,510 Sean Aylmer: Yep. 219 00:11:26,670 --> 00:11:28,910 Simon Kuestenmacher: And then you realize it's a year until you get 220 00:11:28,910 --> 00:11:31,620 Simon Kuestenmacher: the data. 221 00:11:31,710 --> 00:11:33,190 Sean Aylmer: It's like postponing Christmas. 222 00:11:33,309 --> 00:11:35,950 Simon Kuestenmacher: It's a nightmare. It's to give kids a sneak peek 223 00:11:35,950 --> 00:11:38,250 Simon Kuestenmacher: at Christmas and then say, " Well catch you next year." 224 00:11:39,710 --> 00:11:42,510 Sean Aylmer: That Census, when I was doing it, I was interested 225 00:11:42,540 --> 00:11:46,130 Sean Aylmer: in how much information they can extract from a relatively 226 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,270 Sean Aylmer: limited subset. That's kind of what, I expected it to 227 00:11:49,270 --> 00:11:51,929 Sean Aylmer: take forever, and it didn't. It didn't take too long, 228 00:11:52,130 --> 00:11:54,330 Sean Aylmer: but I think, " Gosh, the information they can get out 229 00:11:54,330 --> 00:11:57,630 Sean Aylmer: of this fairly limited set of data is quite remarkable." 230 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,630 Simon Kuestenmacher: It is fantastic. And you need to understand that in international 231 00:12:01,630 --> 00:12:06,300 Simon Kuestenmacher: comparison, our Census just stands out as a fantastic document. 232 00:12:06,610 --> 00:12:10,079 Simon Kuestenmacher: So, the Americans run a Census every 10 year and 233 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:14,120 Simon Kuestenmacher: they ask nine questions. We run a Census every five 234 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,479 Simon Kuestenmacher: years and we ask 65 questions. 235 00:12:16,500 --> 00:12:16,520 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 236 00:12:16,860 --> 00:12:19,960 Simon Kuestenmacher: So out of those 65 questions, because they're all asked 237 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,410 Simon Kuestenmacher: of the same person, we can cross- tabulate them in 238 00:12:23,460 --> 00:12:26,730 Simon Kuestenmacher: any way, so this is wonderful. And you have of course 239 00:12:26,730 --> 00:12:29,950 Simon Kuestenmacher: geography in there, you have a time component in there 240 00:12:29,950 --> 00:12:33,280 Simon Kuestenmacher: because we know where you live during the Census day, 241 00:12:33,620 --> 00:12:35,469 Simon Kuestenmacher: and then we know where you lived a year ago, and 242 00:12:35,530 --> 00:12:38,120 Simon Kuestenmacher: we know where you lived five years ago. So there is this time 243 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:42,699 Simon Kuestenmacher: perspective that this data has, which is fantastic, and we really 244 00:12:42,700 --> 00:12:47,189 Simon Kuestenmacher: can split, cut, and dice data in any way we like, 245 00:12:47,500 --> 00:12:50,200 Simon Kuestenmacher: and that means as of next July, I think is 246 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,750 Simon Kuestenmacher: when the first set of data is published from the Census, 247 00:12:53,090 --> 00:12:55,309 Simon Kuestenmacher: you know, my job runs itself. 248 00:12:55,390 --> 00:12:55,670 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 249 00:12:56,270 --> 00:12:59,660 Simon Kuestenmacher: I have endless material to look at and to really 250 00:12:59,660 --> 00:13:03,059 Simon Kuestenmacher: understand Australia in a more detailed way. And plus of 251 00:13:03,059 --> 00:13:06,210 Simon Kuestenmacher: course this was the first pandemic Census, so we can 252 00:13:06,210 --> 00:13:11,610 Simon Kuestenmacher: actually look at what the different stages of lockdowns, how 253 00:13:11,610 --> 00:13:14,670 Simon Kuestenmacher: they change how people work. For example, the working from 254 00:13:14,670 --> 00:13:17,679 Simon Kuestenmacher: home question was always going to be interesting, but it's 255 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,190 Simon Kuestenmacher: really interesting to see that Melbourne and Sydney were in 256 00:13:21,190 --> 00:13:23,699 Simon Kuestenmacher: lockdowns, Queensland was I think in some sort of partial 257 00:13:23,700 --> 00:13:26,090 Simon Kuestenmacher: lockdown at that time, and so you can compare all 258 00:13:26,090 --> 00:13:29,990 Simon Kuestenmacher: the cities and see how lockdowns pushed the working from 259 00:13:29,990 --> 00:13:31,100 Simon Kuestenmacher: home narrative. 260 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,850 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Simon, it's something to look forward to. Thank you 261 00:13:33,850 --> 00:13:35,410 Sean Aylmer: for talking to Fear and Greed this morning. 262 00:13:35,670 --> 00:13:36,090 Simon Kuestenmacher: Oh, my pleasure. 263 00:13:36,550 --> 00:13:39,890 Sean Aylmer: That was Simon Kuestenmacher, co- founder of the Demographics Group. 264 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,720 Sean Aylmer: This is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Join me every 265 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,229 Sean Aylmer: morning for the full Fear and Greed podcast with all 266 00:13:45,230 --> 00:13:48,010 Sean Aylmer: the business news you need to know. I'm Sean Aylmer, 267 00:13:48,010 --> 00:13:48,390 Sean Aylmer: enjoy your day.