WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 25 September 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:08.440 From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray life. They 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:14.320 did it. Oh wow, how in seed inflation? Haha? 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.959 Just soon knew I've sat here for How could I 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:24.439 have doubted them? The lead story everywhere Celebrate Australia because 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:25.760 everything is awesome. 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:29.440 Inflation has hit a three year low. 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:32.440 Inflation did move today down at. 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:34.440 First glance, It's time for celebration. 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:35.199 Headline. 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:38.080 Monthly inflation has tumbled to two point seven percent. 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.640 I was taking the piece with the celebration thing. They 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:46.440 actually did that on Channel nine. They actually pretended that 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:49.479 the back is broken, that everything is fine, everything is 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:53.519 awesome now. Yes, the inflation rate is down. It is 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:57.400 now finally somewhere between a two and a three. The 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:02.280 treasurer is giving out gold stars to him. 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:06.440 The new inflation numbers for August showed that headline and 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:11.039 underlying inflation both went down substantially. These are very welcome, 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.280 very encouraging, and very heartening numbers. 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:20.720 But just like mission accomplished was not true when George W. 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:24.280 Bush was on the aircraft carrier in about Iraq, mission 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:28.560 is not accomplished when it comes to inflation. Can you 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:32.640 believe that a major news organization would frankly lie to 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:34.959 you like the one that you just saw in their 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:40.679 six PM years so in abbot with the government that 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:44.000 they would actually go mission accomplished. So let's actually have 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:45.840 a look at all of the things that they count 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:49.880 that went down in the past month. Now to get 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:53.200 such a dramatic drop dairy, No, that wouldn't be it. 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:57.280 What about furnishings about a point, it's okay, that's not 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:00.640 that amazing. Yeah, good feels down. Okay, that's very very volatile. 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:02.040 But you know, a couple of months it could be way. 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:05.480 Oh that's what happened. Now they, by the way, of 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:07.320 all of the things that they count, are the only 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:09.960 four things that went down in the past month. The 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:14.519 electricity thing went down because, as you know, you're paying 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.959 for it. The government on budget night announced that there 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.359 was going to be three hundred million or three hundred 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:23.720 dollars each and every house, be it a mansion or 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:26.440 a one bedroom unit in the bush, will come off 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:29.360 your power bills. The reality seventy five dollars a quarter 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:32.720 or twenty five dollars a month. Now, yes, as a 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:37.280 big number, it's hundreds of millions of dollars. When it's 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:41.280 an individual circumstance like yours. It doesn't touch the sides 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:46.720 because even though the cost of electricity is down for 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:51.560 one month, because it is artificially being pushed down, the 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:55.840 cost of building the preferred version of the electricity grid, 0:02:56.040 --> 0:02:59.120 it continues. In fact, there are more renewables being about 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:01.960 now than ever before. We all know why, and we 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:04.840 all know who pays the price. Now the CSIRO tells 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:06.919 us it could be half a trillion dollars. The CSIRO 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:09.160 used to tell us it was a trillion dollars. Green 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:12.880 energy groups tell us it's multiple trillion dollars, all of 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:15.680 which eventually comes back to you as the person who 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:19.280 pays the bill. So the cost of order is all continuing. 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.280 You may still be much higher than you were twelve 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.440 months ago, but because it's not continuously going up, they 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.400 get the result that they did today. Now it won't 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:30.919 surprise you that I will show you the devil that 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.600 is in the detail, the reality of what is actually 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.440 happening in the economy, and how this was something that 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:40.120 will not convince the Reserve Bank to cut rates because 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.680 four things came down, but more than a dozen things 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:47.200 went up. Have a look in the past month, holiday 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:52.000 travel and accommodation up by more than the headline number. Alcohol 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.040 up by more than the headline number. You know, food, 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:59.080 that pesky stuff still way above the headline number. When 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:02.839 it comes to alcoholic beverages, new homes that people live in, 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:08.880 health education, all of those cost to double the number. 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:10.880 Then we start to get into our old mates. The 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:16.080 insurance system rents fruit and vegetables. Now, fruit and vegetables 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:20.320 and fuel have been incredibly volatile. Now, fuel has of 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:22.240 course gone way up at different parts of this year. 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.320 Fruit and vege has gone way down at parts this year. 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:26.680 Fuel is now starting to come back down. Fruit and 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:29.400 vege is starting to raw back up. And tobacco, well, 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:32.000 it keeps going up because of this government's position when 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:37.640 it comes to taxation, which is why Mission accomplished is 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:42.680 so irresponsible. It is legitimately irresponsible to say because it's 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:47.440 not natural, in the same way that George W. Bush 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:50.280 found a way to say mission accomplished. But the war 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:53.880 went on for another what ten and ten years? So 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.800 will be the fight when it comes to inflation. The 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:57.839 Reserve Bank tells us this thing doesn't actually get to 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:00.800 where they believe it needs to be until maybe maybe 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:04.320 the back end of not this but next year. And 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.000 because all of those things keep going up while other 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.560 things that they're able to either have the variability of 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:14.680 things like fuel prices or they're able to buy their 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:18.800 way through. When it comes to monthly electricity changes, it 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:22.120 means there is no rate cut coming, okay, because the 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:26.919 reduction in inflation is not real. So what does this 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:27.440 all mean. 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:30.480 Well, the recent data, I think you degree have been 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.760 a little mixed, but overall they reinforce the need to 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:37.719 maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance and remain vigilant to 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:41.120 the upside risk to inflation. The Board needs to be 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:45.039 confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target for 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:48.040 any decisions are made about a reduction in interest rates. 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:50.719 So there are over at Channel nine. They might be 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:53.919 telling you mission accomplished, but the reality is until interest 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:56.680 rates are cut. As I have shown you a few 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:00.120 times this week, the total number of people who are 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:02.120 paying off their house, the amount that they have to 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:07.280 pay off, well, it's the best part of what sixty 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:11.880 one percent more in the overall amount of money that 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:15.280 we are spending on our home loans that we did 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:17.279 two years ago. So forgive me if I am not 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:23.160 actually celebrating and it's not mission accomplished, you know, and 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:25.240 the show will often point out the each way elbow. 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:27.200 In fact, I think we came up with the term. 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:29.400 Now we know he hates it. We know that even 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:31.120 his mates in the media turn around and say, oh, 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:34.560 it's not catching on really really well, when you actually 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:37.119 they said the same about airbas elbow. They didn't they Now, 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:39.279 let's talk about the negative gearing thing. But I wanted 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:42.000 to do this differently than everyone else has. Now, sometimes 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:43.960 there are nights where sort of one big story is 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.120 going to get all of our different opinions on it, 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.120 and just like when there's a big news story that 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:51.520 will be at each and every hour, the same will 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:53.719 approach when it comes to opinion. But there's a couple 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:55.200 of points I want to make about what I think 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:57.919 is firstly really going on here, and secondly, why the 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.760 negative gearing stuff is going to be a political problem 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:03.960 rather than the one that the lefties think is somehow 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:05.800 going to be a political solution to their fight with 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:09.240 the Greens. Firstly, we know what he said about negative 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:12.160 gearing after they lost in twenty nineteen, and he wanted 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:17.240 to win in twenty twenty two. Gearing now gliding without 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:18.040 help tobisky. 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:20.840 Negative gearing is a good thing, but it wasn't there 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.680 years negative gearing. We had a policy that we took 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.240 to the election where we were not successful. 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.840 Why was negative gearing and capital gains tax breaks a 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:31.160 bad idea in twenty nineteen and a good idea in 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:31.840 twenty twenty seven. 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:35.960 Well we found a better idea a range of them. 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:40.240 But we know that labor never gives up on an idea, 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.920 literally if it includes giving the old Press secretary to 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:46.400 Bob Hawk. Barry Cassidy used to be on the ABC 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:50.200 a job taking care of the Museum of Democracy. Remember 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:51.720 this was an appointment they made towards the end of 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:55.000 the rudgullared Rudd era that was then canceled. But then no, 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.640 we had to come back and do that. Remember forty 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.040 five percent emissions, Well that was too much in twenty nineteen, 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:04.000 but by twenty twenty two it became forty three percent. 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:08.880 We all learned today that negative gearing is apparently back 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:09.920 on the table. 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:15.000 Confirmation and denial from the Prime Minister today over property 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:19.600 investor tax rebates, Anthony Alberezi said modeling was being done 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.160 over scaling back negative gearing that. 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:25.880 Is, a routine Treasury assessment of negative gearing causes the 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:30.120 government some political discomfort. Changes to negative gearing back on 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:33.760 the table as the government tries to pass its housing bills. 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:36.400 All right, stick with me again, a different take on 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:39.400 all of this. Let's firstly work out why are we 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:44.520 talking about this tonight? How did this become public because 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:48.520 reporters at the Channel nine newspapers had an exclusive. Now 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:52.320 whether the exclusive came from Treasury, whether it came from 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:55.640 the treasurer, whether it came from the Prime Minister's office, 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.199 whether they found some briefing notes on a bus stop, 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:01.160 who knows, but they were the of why all of 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:04.360 this was on today. It quoted multiple labour figures who 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:08.240 thought this was a good idea. But then we had 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:11.360 a scenario where the Prime Minister pretended that he had 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.880 no idea what this was about. And that means one 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:19.800 of two things. He's either lying about not knowing, or 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:23.680 he has no idea what is going on inside his government. 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.600 Both are terrible, both should be disqualifying. But I would 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:31.200 imagine both will magically disappear by a press gallery that 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:35.040 largely has always loved the idea of somehow raising the 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:38.559 twenty nineteen election as the one where your bill should win. 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:41.200 And let's just pretend he did win, and the policies 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.080 that we know have been rejected will just repackage like 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:46.280 they did around two hundred and seventy five dollars when 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:49.840 it comes to power cuts to achieve basically the same result, 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:53.640 a shortened when it comes to emissions, when it comes 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:55.439 down to negative gearing. We're going to pretend that a 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:58.040 never so slight change is apparently vastly different than what 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:02.640 was rejected a couple of years is a go again 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:06.000 Prime Minister interview this afternoon, and I'll tell you a 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.160 little thing about how these interviews come about because I 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:13.480 used to do radio in the afternoon. I've seen those reports. 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:15.199 And what we do is we. 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:18.280 Value the public service. So from time to time, I'm 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:21.720 sure the public service are looking at policy ideas. Will 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:22.440 you rule out. 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:24.560 Changes to the getting hearing and property cases? 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:24.959 This too? 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:29.080 On East, Well, what we're doing is doing the legislation 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:31.640 that we had before the Senate, So I talk about 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:35.120 what we're doing, not what we're not doing. And what 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:37.880 we're doing is trying to get through that legislation. 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:41.640 Now, what's weird here is that if a story like 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.920 this comes out in a newspaper and the government truly 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:49.000 has no idea about this announcement, they'll generally hide someone 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.480 like the Prime Minister so he could actually work out 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:54.360 what's going on inside his own government. But the fact 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:56.640 that he was in front of the cameras today kind 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:58.960 of tells you that this is the balloon they're trying 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:01.439 to put into the air. He also did not one, 0:11:01.520 --> 0:11:04.440 but two radio interviews in Sydney this afternoon. Now, I 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.439 remember what it was like to do drivetime talkback radio 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:10.800 in Sydney, and I know that the Prime Minister is 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:15.720 not normally somebody who is booked in advance. Instead, generally speaking, 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:19.080 the Prime Minister's office will reach out to said radio 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.920 host just a couple of hours before due to interview 0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:24.920 because they want to get a message out because they 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:28.120 expect good news has happened earlier in the day. Now, 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:31.400 if both of those shows want to tell me differently, 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.240 my guess is the Prime Minister was offered to about 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:36.840 the ABC and t GB very late in the day 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.160 to day. Why would they do that if they were 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.720 trying to hide the story. Instead, they're trying to buy 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:46.280 into the story. Instead, they're trying to spin the story, 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:50.440 which is why again Jim Charmers answered the question like this. 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:54.520 Today we've got a housing policy and that's not in it. 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:58.200 It's not unusual for governments to get advice from time 0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:01.400 to time from department on issues which are in the 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:02.080 public domain. 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:06.000 So is the Prime Minister truly clueless when he's doing 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:09.360 press conferences and radio interviews today where he knows the 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:12.079 front page of the paper that was in Sydney and 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.480 Melbourne when the sun came up this morning would be 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.480 what he talked about. Or are we doing exactly the 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:20.760 same thing that when it came to the Stage three 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.800 tax cuts, Pretend it's out there. See what happens to 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.160 many people blow up? Okay, so we've got the ABC 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:30.320 on board, we've got mission accomplished, a board on Channel nine. Yeah, 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:32.959 we can probably push through here. And as you saw 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:35.320 when it came to those tax cuts, despite the fact 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:37.920 that we were right and it was too little, it 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.360 was too late, it did not change things when it 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.359 came to cost of living. All of those media organizations 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:45.600 who liked the policy were the ones who told you 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:47.960 not what would happen per week or by fortnite, and 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:51.280 said they gave you the one big number, that was 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:53.320 the annual number as they were doing the bidding of 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.400 the government. They will now proceed to do the bidding 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:57.960 of the government when it comes to negative gearing. That's 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:02.240 point number two now to number three, the four D 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:06.160 chess of the Prime minister. Even fiddling with this issue, 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:09.920 well it boggles my mind. You see, he may think 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:13.160 that there is absolutely no scenario under which he will 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:15.400 not be the prime minister after the next election, even 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:17.400 if he has to go into a minority government with 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:21.480 less than seventy seats, because it's basically a left wing 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.360 cross bench, they'll all back him in and there's no 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:26.640 way he won't be the greatest prime minister of all 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:28.520 time for as long as possible, bek as nobody will 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:32.280 ever elect the Libs in his mind. But I want 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.880 to show you just how bad this could be for 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:39.960 the government if they keep the negative gearing question hanging 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.280 and they let the opposition define what some of these 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.960 changes may be. Have a look again the reporting of 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.839 the second shooter drop at the Channel on newspapers today 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:52.880 was they actually listed the number of seats that are 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:56.920 the top seats in the country in terms of the 0:13:56.960 --> 0:14:01.640 percentage of taxpayers in that electorate have a negatively geared property. 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:07.760 As you can see one, two, three, four, five, six 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:13.000 are labor seats. Of those, a significant number are marginal 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:18.880 seats or could become marginal if ten percent start to 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.320 think that something is about to happen with their major 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:25.440 financial investment. So I'll give you a tip about what 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:28.560 I think is going to happen here. I think that 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.840 they've put the balloon up and I think that they 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:32.800 want to say that they're going to do something in 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:36.520 and around negative gearing, because particularly with younger voters and 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.520 people that are more Greens favored, this is one of 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:43.160 sort of the big Uga boogers of the Australian property system. 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.040 If they do anything, I don't think it'll be for 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:51.520 anyone currently involved. They'll try to grandfather things and say 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.840 everyone in the current agreements nothing will change, but that's 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:57.960 what Shortened tried in twenty nineteen. They will also turn 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:00.920 around and say it only applies to new people who 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:04.280 have got three or more places. Well, I'll show you 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.680 the numbers in a second about how little that will 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:10.240 actually change. The picture. But above all the reason this 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:14.040 is particularly stupid, no matter how many clever people say 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.920 this is the smart thing to do. About one point 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:22.920 two million people in Australia have a property that they 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:27.600 have negatively geared. That means there's one point two million 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:32.000 families in Australia where somebody is expecting as part of 0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:34.720 the inheritance that they will hand on to their child 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.280 or their child to be able to hand onto their 0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:42.360 grandchild is the investment property that they currently own. If 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:48.080 the system is grandfathered, the tax will only apply to you. 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:51.600 Your kid or grandkid will not be able to inherit 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:56.520 that system, which means one point two million property owners 0:15:56.560 --> 0:16:03.400 becomes two point four million kids. Potentially it becomes six 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:09.240 eight minion grandkids. But this is genius politics, right because 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:12.800 the ACT people love it, because the ABC people love it, 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:16.360 because the Radio National crowd love it. Well. The suburbs 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.800 in the multiple labor seats that would move as a 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.840 result of this policy, as they did in nineteen well, 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:27.200 I think it's going to happen. Fourth point, on this 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:31.160 particular issue, the people who say get rid of negative 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.840 gearing say it because it costs the federal budget something 0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:37.240 like twenty two billion dollars a year in the overall 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:39.480 tax concessions when it comes to houses. But in and 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:43.080 around that number is the number that negative gearing, meaning 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:48.280 tax that is returned to the property investor. Again, it's 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.360 about twenty two billion dollars, or that's the expectation of 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:53.920 where it will be in a couple of years time. 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.400 So hey, get rid of negative gearing because won't that 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:02.400 mean there'll be more homes to buy? Or well, no, 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.840 and let this opinion person in the Telegraph explain why. 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:09.360 As much as we love to hammer landlords for being 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.280 greedy and hiking rents and making families live in substandard 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.080 properties because they have no other choice, the fact is 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:17.879 that those landlords are the only ones who can deliver 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:22.040 more supply. Make no mistake, messing with negative gearing rules, 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:25.000 whether capping the number of properties per eligible person or 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.440 taking away the tax benefit altogether, will deter landlords from 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:32.520 entering the market, meaning there will be fewer properties that 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:38.160 people will buy, not to live in but to rent out. Well, 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:40.320 then again people say, no, no, you've got to get rid 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:42.879 of negative of gearing because if there were no investors, 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.720 then all of the homes that they currently invest in 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.760 would suddenly become available for me and my mates to 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:55.400 be able to bid for. Well, not necessarily, because you see, 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:58.560 we have a little problem in Australia, which is, let's 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:03.000 imagine there there's ten people that are going to be 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:07.600 bidding for a house. Let's imagine two of those people 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:12.440 are property investors. So okay, there's now just eight people 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.040 that are bidding for the house. Great, I've got a 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:20.359 better chance of winning. The only problem is during the auction, 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.199 two new people are going to turn up, so the 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.480 same number of people will still be bidding against you. 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.760 Because there's this thing called immigration. You see, one point 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:32.160 two million people who currently own a negatively geared investment 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:36.720 property would be replaced within four years under the current 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:41.720 immigration system, as we've shown. Now take out the COVID 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:45.880 anomalies of twenty twenty twenty twenty one. Essentially over four years, 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:48.320 you'd get to one point three million people who come 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:50.720 into the country. Now, yes, some are old, some are kids, 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:52.960 but you get the point I'm making here, which is, 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:55.520 if you've got every property investor to not be able 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:57.600 to continue to invest in the properties in which they 0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:01.320 invest and then negatively gear it would be completely wiped 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.399 out within four years by all of the people that 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:10.040 are coming into the country. Oh what you see. That's 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:12.960 the problem with the policy is that it sounds like 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:17.880 it is the absolute solution. But if you've got as 0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:20.200 many people coming through one door as you're trying to 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.040 push out another door, it doesn't actually change the number 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:25.160 of people who are trying to buy the same number 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:27.560 of houses. And if all of those people are just 0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:29.520 trying to buy houses for them to be able to 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.840 live in, what happens to the thirty percent of people 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.120 in this country who are trying to rent a property. 0:19:36.720 --> 0:19:39.080 You see, they don't have enough money for a deposit, 0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.240 and if somebody doesn't own the property and then rent 0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:46.640 it out and yes, potentially use negative gearing to help 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:49.800 keep that going so that one day they play financial coplunk. 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.760 In twenty years, all of that manner gets put together 0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:55.320 and then upon their death it gets handed over as 0:19:55.440 --> 0:20:00.960 an inheritance. You get my point. That's why the politics 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:04.520 of negative gearing is as dangerous as it is now. 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:07.840 You'll get many pointy headed people, most of the media, 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:11.040 most of the social influences saying this is absolutely the 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:15.360 way to go. If only there was a recent referendum 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:19.439 where exactly the same thing happened, but sixty percent of 0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:26.199 the country voted no. Also worth nothing here tonight, and 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.400 there's plenty of information. Again, I could go through all 0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:30.560 of this stuff right about how many and how much, 0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:32.200 and I'll get to that a little bit later. Now, 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:36.640 Tanny plibisic. We know that she's making some weird decisions 0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:39.960 when it comes to resources projects. At the moment. We 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:41.879 know the gold mine that she's holding up in and 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:45.480 around Bathost. We know the gas spasin in the Beeloop 0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:48.439 that is currently also about to be held up. But 0:20:48.520 --> 0:20:50.159 a decision which has happened in the past couple of 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:53.720 days is not one, but three coal mines have been extended. 0:20:54.160 --> 0:20:58.520 Environmental groups are losing their brain. But I wanted to 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:00.960 talk about it Andrew Forrest for a second. 0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:01.760 Now. 0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:06.720 Andrew Forrest is, of course a billionaire. For some reason, 0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:11.360 the media think he is Australia's greatest billionaire because he's 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.520 always been interviewed, he's always giving speeches. He's alway telling 0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:15.600 us about how everything in the world should change. But 0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:18.160 you know where I draw the line. I really draw 0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:21.240 the line is when a bloke who is a billionaire 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:26.680 because of mining that continues to pollute because of mining, 0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:31.719 is given an interview on a television show this morning 0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:36.679 to oppose an extension of somebody else's mind, not his, 0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:40.400 but somebody else's mine. That's what happened on the Today Show. 0:21:40.440 --> 0:21:40.960 I think. 0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:44.560 I don't really mind if you love your kids or 0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:47.080 not mate, but f kerm, if you love your kids, 0:21:47.080 --> 0:21:49.800 I would not be approving coal mines. 0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:56.000 Sorry, just one more time, Okay, the billionaire who is 0:21:56.040 --> 0:22:00.359 a billionaire because of mining, mining that pollute, let me 0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:04.840 double check. Two point five million tons of CO two 0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:08.919 into the atmosphere according to the Fortescue Climate Report of 0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:13.400 twenty twenty three. The millionaire, the bidionnaire who made billions 0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:18.080 out of mining that pollutes the planet, is telling you 0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:21.639 somebody else's mind should not extend. One more time. 0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:24.879 I don't really mind if you love your kids. Are 0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:27.400