1 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed, Politics and Stuff. I'm Michael 2 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: Thompson and hello Sean ayle My. 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 2: Hello Michael. 4 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: Now showing Over the last five weeks or so now, 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 1: we have been doing a show every Wednesday at midday 6 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: where we've been looking at the campaign. We've gone through 7 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:20,919 Speaker 1: the key issues, we've gone through the polls, we've looked 8 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: at what the leaders have been doing. This is our 9 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: last one. I'm going to miss it. 10 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: I'm going to miss the title of the show politics 11 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,279 Speaker 2: and Stuff, which for listeners, I want you to know. 12 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 2: We said, what are we going to call it? I 13 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 2: don't know. I'm just going to put politics and stuff 14 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 2: for now. We're not going to say who put that 15 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: forward then as a placeholder and the other one just 16 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,919 Speaker 2: started talking about it and it's stuck. Catch your name 17 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 2: politics and Stuff. 18 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: And it's worked. 19 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: I mean for us it's worked. I'm not sure about 20 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 2: the listeners. 21 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: Everyone knows what the show is about. It is about 22 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: politics and stuff. So it's been a big week. We 23 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: had the fourth and final debate on Sunday night, which 24 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: was really probably more of the same. I think there 25 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: was nothing in there and Peter Dutton would have gone 26 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: into that one, hoping for a knockout blow because he 27 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 1: needed a knockout blow in the fourth debate. It didn't happen, 28 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: so really had to pin all of his hopes then 29 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 1: on a sterling last week in the election campaign where 30 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,839 Speaker 1: what halfway through that and still nothing has really happened 31 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: that might change people's minds. I think no. 32 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 2: The polls suggest that Labor the head fifty two forty 33 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: eight in a two party preferred basis as preferred prime 34 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 2: Minister Anthony Alberzi is a long way in front of 35 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: Peter Dutton. I don't think they'll lie, and I think 36 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 2: come Saturday evening or Sunday, whenever we get the result, 37 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: we will find out that prime minister, the prime Minister 38 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 2: for the next parliament will again be Anthony Alberzi. I 39 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 2: think it's a close run thing, whether it's a majority 40 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 2: government or not. It's a cost of living. It's been 41 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 2: a cost of living election right from the get go, 42 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 2: whether that be around housing, energy twenty five cents reduction 43 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 2: on fuel, excise, help for first home buyers, all those 44 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 2: sorts of things. It really has been around the cost 45 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: of living. What I think Labour's done really well is 46 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 2: convince people that they are the party that can kind 47 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 2: of keep the turnaround going on and to be honest 48 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 2: that the economy is actually in pretty good shape and 49 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 2: notwithstanding the cost of living crisis. What I think the 50 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:35,079 Speaker 2: opposition hasn't really been able to enunciate is how they 51 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 2: would help people in terms of the cost of living 52 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:41,799 Speaker 2: crisis and not mark up the economy in the meantime. 53 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 2: And it's like Bill Shorten very was hard to elect 54 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 2: among the populace. I think Peter Dutton falls into that 55 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 2: category hard to elect. 56 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's interesting to consider the impact that Donald 57 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 1: Trump has had on this campaign as well, because that 58 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: was really a curve in terms of the tariffs, and 59 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: suddenly there was it felt like every country was under 60 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: attack from an ally essentially, and in a way, those 61 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: things do benefit the incumbent in Canada absolutely, but when 62 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: it comes to national security issues, generally the conservative side 63 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 1: is seen as the better guardian of kind of national security. 64 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: It felt like that kind of negated that as a 65 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: potential win for Peter Dutton, because all of a sudden, 66 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: Anthony Abernezi was able to say, look, I'm the one 67 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: that's running the show here, I'm the one that's trying 68 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: to be the better steward of the economy. I'm going 69 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: to protect us against tariffs. I'm the only one that's 70 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: had the conversations with Donald Trump on this. And suddenly 71 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: Peter Dutton didn't get a look in on the national 72 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: security debate, which I thought it was interesting. 73 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it was interesting to see Dutton initially 74 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 2: aligning himself with Trump, and then the further Trump went, 75 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 2: the further Dunton wanted to move away. And by the 76 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 2: time we had Liberation Day tariffs, no one wanted to 77 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 2: be anywhere near Trump and we saw that and as 78 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 2: you say, that kind of undermined his defense abilities. And 79 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 2: he I mean, he was a defense minister Dutton. When 80 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: it came to defense, He's actually done a really good job. 81 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 2: He's campaigned really well on defense, I think. But it 82 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 2: isn't a defense campaign. It's the cost of living campaign. 83 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 2: And whoever is going to win the cost of living argument, 84 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 2: and the polls suggest that people trust Alberanzi more than 85 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 2: Dutton around the cost living. That's what I'll get that 86 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:26,839 Speaker 2: party across the line. 87 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: Not what I'm looking forward to not seeing anymore, is 88 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: Anthony Alberanize's Medicare card. 89 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, yes, are petrol tankers with twenty five 90 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: cents of leader exercise yep. 91 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: And I will look forward to no longer hearing ads 92 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: going on about the six hundred billion dollar price tag 93 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 1: attached to the nuclear. 94 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,679 Speaker 2: And text messages from Trumpet to the patriots. We haven't 95 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 2: the trumpets of Trumpets, I can't remember. The text messages 96 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 2: keep coming, I can't remember the name of. 97 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: The part has been extraordinary. The number of message and 98 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: the community anger that is out there over these texts. 99 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,600 Speaker 1: Because you cannot opt out, you cannot mark them as spam, 100 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: you cannot actually stop them. And it is kind of 101 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: within the law that if you want to stop there 102 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: is and it can go to private numbers, it can 103 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: go anywhere. To actually stop political parties from messaging, you 104 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: would actually require legislation. 105 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 2: Oh wow, which is extraordinaries. And what I think is interesting, 106 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 2: like Trumpet of patriots are attacking one nation, We have 107 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: many of the tels. It will be really interesting to 108 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 2: see how the tells and the independence go. But there's 109 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 2: been some really dirty campaigns against the tills as well, 110 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 2: particularly in seats where well in Manique Ryance he's incumbent, 111 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 2: but in Bradfield and Northern Sydney where a really strong 112 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: challenger to In this case, it's to retiring Liberal Paul Fletcher. 113 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 2: Really sort of dirty tricks campaigns against some of those 114 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 2: people as well, and it just shows how relevant the 115 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 2: independents are. Now I'm going to ask you, Michael, one 116 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 2: hundred and fifty seats in Parliament, was it one fifty one? 117 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 2: Gone down to one fifty? How many will the ALP win? 118 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: I reckon they will win an outright majority. I think 119 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: it will be seventy seven seats, right, how about you? 120 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 2: I think they'll win seventy four. Oh, seventy four or 121 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 2: seventy five. I think they'll be right on the margin 122 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 2: of an outright majority. But I yeah, it's seventy four 123 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 2: to seventy five. 124 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. See. I think the challenge here is that to 125 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: turf a government out after just one term, the opposition 126 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: needs to do a very good job of showing that 127 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: the government hasn't done a good job. And I just 128 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 1: feel as though Peter Dutton and the Coalition have not 129 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: been able to do that to that extent, and that 130 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 1: most voters will be willing to say, hey, we will 131 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: give them another go for another three years, rather than 132 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: the risk that comes with changing government. 133 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 2: Entirely, particularly in Donald Trump world. 134 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, indeed, And a lot of people have already 135 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: made up their mind. Yeah, there's been what three million 136 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: people have already voted. 137 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 2: It's incredible, which is something like. 138 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: Eighteen to twenty percent of the people enrollved to have 139 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: already voted. Extraordinary. This is an election of the likes 140 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: we haven't seen before, Sewan. But I'm going to miss 141 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: politics and. 142 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 2: Stuff I am too, particularly the name. 143 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: Maybe we should bring it back. 144 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 2: Maybe not all right there, Sean, thank you, thank you, 145 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 2: Michael Thompson. 146 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: And this is beer and greed, politics and stuff.