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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use Today.

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Speaker 1: The local share market has its worst day since April,

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Speaker 1: with bond yields rising and the economy rebounding stronger than expected.

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Speaker 1: The boss of National Australia Bank warns businesses not to

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Speaker 1: ignore AI, saying complacency puts future generations at risk and

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Speaker 1: could we be heading for four year terms in Canberra. Plus,

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Speaker 1: the ATO warns Ozzie's not to use their super like

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Speaker 1: a piggy bank, and a US judge rules US President

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump broke the law again. It is Thursday, the

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Speaker 1: fourth of September twenty twenty five. Are Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: Good morning Natalie McDonald. Good morning Michael, Natalie. The main

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Speaker 1: story this morning. The ASX had its worst day since

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Speaker 1: April yesterday, dropping one point eight percent, bond yields rising,

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Speaker 1: and the latest data from the ABS showing Australia's economy

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Speaker 1: is stronger than expected. We've got GDP data three yesterday

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Speaker 1: and it rowse zero point six percent in the June

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Speaker 1: court and one point eight percent over the year, and

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Speaker 1: that seemed to surprise a few economists.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the economy and then we'll get to markets.

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Speaker 2: That recovery, as you say, being driven by households splashing

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Speaker 2: out on travel, hospitality, and big ticket items. While yesterday's

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Speaker 2: figures would have reflected those earlier rate cuts and lower

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Speaker 2: interest rates would certainly be helping to lift consumer spending,

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Speaker 2: they're actually not the main reason for that stronger rebounding

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Speaker 2: consumption in the Dune quarter, which rose by a solid

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Speaker 2: point nine percent. AMPGPTY chief economist Yannamusina pointed out Easter

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Speaker 2: and Anzac Day falling so close this year end of

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Speaker 2: financial year sales, as well as the release of the

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Speaker 2: new Nintendo Switch, which has actually cropped up across a

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Speaker 2: couple of different data releases that we've covered of late,

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Speaker 2: consumers are spending more by running down their savings, as

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Speaker 2: Ozzie's enjoy. Post rate cut spending, the household saving ratio

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Speaker 2: fell from five point two to four point two percent.

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Speaker 2: But all in all, that puts annual growth now at

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Speaker 2: its strongest pace in nearly two.

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Speaker 1: Years, and of course this is great news for the

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Speaker 1: economy right. Not so good though, for any borrowers who

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Speaker 1: are still clinging to honestly quite slim hopes of a

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Speaker 1: rate cut. When the RBA board meets later this month.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Reserve Bank is now expected to hold rates

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Speaker 2: at its September meeting, with markets pricing in a lower

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Speaker 2: chance of further cuts later this year. A listing another

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Speaker 2: cut may come in November, but the Reserve Bank will

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Speaker 2: likely be cautious given rising household spending and those falling savings.

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Speaker 2: AMP is anticipating another twenty five basis point rate reduction

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Speaker 2: at the November meeting, followed by further reductions in February

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Speaker 2: and May of next year.

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Speaker 1: Okay, that's the economy. Now, let's shift to local markets.

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Speaker 1: Because it was a massive day yesterday on the burs.

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Speaker 2: It was, in short, not great. The S and p

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Speaker 2: air SX two hundred fell one point eight percent, or

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Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty two points to eighty seven hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty eight. That's the biggest one day drop since April.

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Speaker 2: The team at the ABC have crunched the numbers and

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Speaker 2: that equates to fifty seven billion dollars wiped off the

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Speaker 2: local share market. All eleven sectors finished in the red,

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Speaker 2: with steep falls in tech, real estate and property. Tech

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Speaker 2: sector the worst performer zero, down six point two percent,

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Speaker 2: while the big four banks all fell between two point

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Speaker 2: two and three point seven percent, with losses for BHP

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Speaker 2: and Rio Tinto also the culprit Here. While markets are

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Speaker 2: probably due for a pullback following an unusual August, surging

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Speaker 2: bond yields are the key driver, it seems, already rising

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Speaker 2: in mid global pressure and then climbing another basis point

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Speaker 2: off the back of that GDP data. Once again, gold

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Speaker 2: miners holding their nerve after the precious metals stormed a

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Speaker 2: six day rally with gains for Bellvue, Gold, Northern Star

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Speaker 2: and Regius Resources.

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Speaker 1: All right, there's a lot going on for the economy,

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Speaker 1: for markets. Let's add one more into the mix. This

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Speaker 1: is one from politics, and this is a fascinating report

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Speaker 1: out of nine newspapers where the federal government is considering

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Speaker 1: apparently a shift to four year terms and increasing the

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Speaker 1: number of electorates, part of a major overhaul of the

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Speaker 1: electoral system. After each election, a committee reviews that election.

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Speaker 1: In this time, Special Minister of State Don Farrell has

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Speaker 1: put forward those two issues as key considerations, whether to

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Speaker 1: extend or fix the political term, and the other one

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Speaker 1: being do they increase the number of electorates in the

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Speaker 1: lower House.

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Speaker 2: So fixing the date for the current three year terms

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Speaker 2: that we always know when an election is coming could

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Speaker 2: be done with legislation, but extending the term to be

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Speaker 2: four years would actually require a referendum, something that has

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Speaker 2: only been tried once before by Bob Hawk in the

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Speaker 2: eighties and was defeated. But nine newspapers report that the

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Speaker 2: government is actually considering putting the reform forward again, perhaps

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Speaker 2: buoyed by the massive majority at one at the election.

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Speaker 2: And as for increasing the number of electorates from one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty, well that can be done with legislation

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Speaker 2: as well. In this case, the argument is that each

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Speaker 2: Lower House politician is representing an average of one hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy seven thousand people. At Federation it was just

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Speaker 2: fifty thousand.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so it has changed just a little bit, and

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Speaker 1: maybe the system needs to change to keep up with it.

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Speaker 1: We do go into this issue in today's episode of

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Speaker 1: Q and A, where we take a more detailed look

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Speaker 1: at why reform might be necessary, the pros and cons,

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Speaker 1: and whether it can actually get through as well. That

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Speaker 1: one's coming up after the show. Don't go anywhere, though,

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Speaker 1: We're going to take a very quick break. We still

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Speaker 1: have a lot to get through back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news Natalie. Leaders

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Speaker 1: at two of the big four banks are continuing to

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Speaker 1: make waves. We seem to be talking about this almost

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Speaker 1: every day now, but National Australia Banks boss is warning

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Speaker 1: about productivity, real focus there on AI and the new

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Speaker 1: A and Z CEO is pushing ahead with a major

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Speaker 1: reform of the bank, even though a new survey shows

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Speaker 1: that morale at the bank is dropping.

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Speaker 2: NAT CEO Andrew Irvine has warned that Australia's productivity has

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Speaker 2: still this not so much news to us and complacency

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Speaker 2: is putting future generations at risk. Speaking to four hundred

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Speaker 2: business leaders, Irvin said AI is the game changer and

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Speaker 2: that ignoring it that's not an option. He said that

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Speaker 2: people using AI will take the jobs of those who don't,

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Speaker 2: and that for businesses failing to adopt new technology, it's

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Speaker 2: like Kodak or Blockbuster names I haven't thought of for

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Speaker 2: a while, certainly, but there are relevance in waiting. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: an Z CEO Nunomatos is pressing ahead with a major

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Speaker 2: overhaul even as staff morale dips. An internal survey of

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Speaker 2: thirty seven thousand employees showed engagement, inclusion and well being

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Speaker 2: metrics falling since March this year. Mattos took over the

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Speaker 2: top job in May. Just to put that survey in context,

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Speaker 2: but Mattos says tough decisions are necessary to streamline the bank,

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Speaker 2: cut duplication and focus on performance. It's been reported this

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Speaker 2: week that the bank is considering somewhere between two thousand

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Speaker 2: and five thousand job cuts as part of those reforms.

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Speaker 1: The Tax Office is warning Australians not to treat their

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Speaker 1: SUPER like a piggybank, after early withdrawals topped one billion

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Speaker 1: dollars last financial year. Now, new figure show applications for

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Speaker 1: compassionate release of SUPER have surged more than seventy five

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Speaker 1: percent since before the pandemic.

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Speaker 2: Nearly sixty nine thousand people applied in twenty three twenty four,

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Speaker 2: with most seeking help for medical or dental costs. About

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Speaker 2: fifty thousand applications were approved. But the ATO says too

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Speaker 2: many people think that SUPER is essentially free money.

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Speaker 1: It's extraordinary that that is the way that they're kind

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Speaker 1: of putting this, because when you look at those stats,

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Speaker 1: these are things like yeah, as you say, medical care,

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Speaker 1: dental care, It even gets down to things like palliative

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Speaker 1: care that people are needing to dip into SUPER four,

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Speaker 1: and you would assume that in those cases they've probably

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Speaker 1: tried every other option before going into super because you

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Speaker 1: know that super is most valuable and works best when

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Speaker 1: you leave it, don't access it, and it just keeps

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Speaker 1: building up.

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Speaker 2: Well and exactly that. Officials are saying that earlier access

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Speaker 2: should only ever be a last resort, which completely speaks

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Speaker 2: to your point, Michael, pulling out twenty thousand dollars at

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Speaker 2: age thirty could actually leave you ninety three thousand dollars

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Speaker 2: worse off in retirements. That's some really stark figures there.

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Speaker 2: The ATO is also cracking down on dodgy operators, health

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Speaker 2: practitioners inflating medical reports, or companies charging big fees to

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Speaker 2: file applications. The Super Members Council wants stronger action, warning

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Speaker 2: of a wave of ads luring people to raid their

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Speaker 2: retirement savings for non essential treatments.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, as you say, it should just be last resort,

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Speaker 1: and really it is why financial advice is so valuable

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Speaker 1: as well, particularly when you're dealing with superannuation, because a

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Speaker 1: small change can have a really massive lasting effect. Now

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Speaker 1: Australia's farm sector Natalie is breaking records. The country's agriculture,

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Speaker 1: fisheries and forestry production is forecast to reach a record

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Speaker 1: value of one hundred and one billion dollars this financial year.

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Speaker 1: That is, according to the government's Agricultural Forecaster.

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Speaker 2: Driving the boom. Livestock prices for lamb, beef and milk

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Speaker 2: ghas soaring. In fact, we had that story about the

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Speaker 2: three hundred and fifty thousand dollars hefer that went for auction,

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Speaker 2: and this is pushing livestock production to more than forty

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Speaker 2: one billion dollars. While wheat yields are down due to drought,

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Speaker 2: they're still on track from a massive sixty two million

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Speaker 2: ton harvest. And here's some sweeter news for fruit growers.

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Speaker 2: You like that one d After years of negotiation, Australian

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Speaker 2: apples can now be exported to Canada without fumigation or

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Speaker 2: cold treatment. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins says the new access

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Speaker 2: will help growers compete globally, following on from April's breakthrough

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Speaker 2: deal with China. It's that's going to make exports more viable.

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Speaker 2: Although Australia will be up against heavyweights like South Africa,

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Speaker 2: Chile and China, which produces more than forty three million

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Speaker 2: tons of apples each year, that is versus Australia's three

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand tons.

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Speaker 1: It's really not a core industry for us, is it.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, that's even worse.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that was actually serious story, this one. Power bills

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Speaker 1: are biting hard more Australians are simply not paying them.

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Speaker 1: In fact, these are record numbers now. Financial counselors say

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Speaker 1: two and a half million people are under severe stress

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Speaker 1: and a growing number are being told to stop using

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Speaker 1: credit cards to cover bills and instead just talk to

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Speaker 1: the company, notify the company that they can't actually afford

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Speaker 1: to pay.

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Speaker 2: And in the past power would be cut off, but

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Speaker 2: now companies are keeping the lights on and quietly absorbing

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Speaker 2: the costs, the Australian reports. But that shortfall, it doesn't

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Speaker 2: just vanish though it's being passed on. The latest inflation

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Speaker 2: data shows electricity prices up thirteen percent, with some of

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Speaker 2: that hike thought to be covering unpaid bills. Alnics worn

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Speaker 2: this is unsustainable. If word spreads that debts aren't being pursued,

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Speaker 2: even more households may stop paying. Add in soaring transmission

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Speaker 2: costs from big renewable projects, and experts say higher prices

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Speaker 2: are baked in. The bottom line here is that paying

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Speaker 2: customers could end up footing the bill for millions who

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Speaker 2: can't or won't pay.

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Speaker 1: Now. I love this. Next one, Big Changes is coming

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Speaker 1: to bargain shopping in Australia. The Reject Shop name is

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Speaker 1: set to vanish after forty four years. The new Canadian owner, Dollarma,

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Speaker 1: is rebranding the chain and almost doubling its size. The

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Speaker 1: fifty seven billion dollar retail giant plans to roll out

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Speaker 1: a supermarket style format, long aisles, new products, prices slashed.

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Speaker 1: It has been quite a story since the takeover of

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Speaker 1: Reject Shop by Dollarma. They're really coming in and giving

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Speaker 1: it a crack.

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Speaker 2: And if you're not familiar with the name, Dollarma already

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Speaker 2: runs more than sixteen hundred stores across Canada and Latin

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Speaker 2: America and now wants seven hundred stores in Australia by

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Speaker 2: twenty thirty four, so almost twice the current network. That

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Speaker 2: would put it on par with Aldi and bigger than

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Speaker 2: Big W so posing a serious threat to Kmart and Target.

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Speaker 2: CEO Neil Rossi says the Dollarama experience will be feen

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Speaker 2: gradually with shell stocks from the company's huge global supply chain.

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Speaker 2: For shoppers that means cheaper toys, clothes, and everyday goods.

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Speaker 2: But for rivalr retailers, it's a new heavyweight, really shaking

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Speaker 2: up the discount game. And given Big w status as

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Speaker 2: the problem child, I expect there are a few eyes

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Speaker 2: at Wilworth keeping a close eye on these developments.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news now, and China has staged

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Speaker 1: the country's biggest ever military parade at Beijing's Tianamen Square,

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Speaker 1: flanked by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, North Korean dictator Kim

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Speaker 1: Jong un. President Jijin Ping used the spectacle of missiles, drones, tanks,

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Speaker 1: tens of thousands of troops to emphasize China's vision for

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Speaker 1: a new world order.

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Speaker 2: And also in attendance was former Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews

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Speaker 2: shaking hands with you, imposing alongside the North Korean dictator

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Speaker 2: in Russias Putin, who's wanted for alleged war crimes, sparking

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Speaker 2: much criticism at home. Opposition figures have slammed it as

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Speaker 2: a parade for dictators, while Victorian leaders have defended it

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Speaker 2: as private diplomacy and a chance to maintain regional ties.

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Speaker 2: The event was largely shunned by Western leaders, but Trump

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Speaker 2: weighed in on social media, asking Ji to send quote

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Speaker 2: war mist regards to Putin and Kim, calling them conspirators

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Speaker 2: against the US. The parade also gave Putin and Kim

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Speaker 2: a platform to deepen energy deals and showcase North Korea's

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Speaker 2: first major multilateral appearance in sixty six years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that tweet or that post on truth social it

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Speaker 1: was just so pointed, so direct.

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Speaker 2: It's like when you find out that your friends have

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Speaker 2: gone to the pub without you, and you're like, have fun, yes,

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Speaker 2: enjoy please without me.

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Speaker 1: Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim

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Speaker 1: Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just kis with love.

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Speaker 1: Yep, tell it like it is. And while we're speaking

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Speaker 1: about the US president, A federal court judge in the

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Speaker 1: States has ruled the Trump administration broke the law by

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Speaker 1: deploying National Guard troops to the protests in la earlier

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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 2: The court found the move wilfully violated federal law using

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Speaker 2: troops beyond their legal authority. Trump had sent around five

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Speaker 2: thousand National Guards, soldiers and marines to LA after immigration raids,

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Speaker 2: despite objections from Governor Gavin Newsom and city leaders. While

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Speaker 2: most troops were withdrawn by July, roughly two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty remained, and the judge flagged inadequate training on what

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Speaker 2: they could legally do. The ruling comes as Trump publicly

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Speaker 2: news is about deploying the Guard to other democratic led cities,

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Speaker 2: including Chicago, Baltimore, and New York.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Coming up next, as I mentioned, Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Q and A today looking at the potential for political

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Speaker 1: reform and why don't you headlong to Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au as well and sign up for our free

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Speaker 1: daily newsletter all the news you need to know in

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Speaker 1: your inbox by six am. It only takes about three

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Speaker 1: minutes to read and it will put you ahead of

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Speaker 1: your colleagues, your clients, your competitors, everyone. I'll put a

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Speaker 1: link in today's show notes as well. Thank you very much, Natalie,

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Speaker 1: Thank you Michael. It is Thursday, the fourth of September

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and

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Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook

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Speaker 1: A Michael Thompson and the atmosphere and grade have a

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Speaker 1: great day, y