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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week ahead. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: and alma, and as always I'm joined by economist Stephen Coculis.

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Speaker 1: You'll hined him at the Cook dot com, tg k UK,

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Speaker 1: Thecook dot com and on next using the handle the

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Speaker 1: Kirk Stephen.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning Sean.

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Speaker 1: You've had a couple of weeks break, Stephen. It's all over.

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Speaker 1: What a massive week for the economy, starting off with

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Speaker 1: the all important inflation data for the September quarter and

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Speaker 1: the month of September.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been sort of in a bit of a

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Speaker 2: data drought, but this week is a corker. And yes,

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Speaker 2: the inflation numbers that are coming out on Wednesday will

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Speaker 2: be well, all important for the Australian market. The Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank will be watching them with a huge amount of

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Speaker 2: interest to see whether they've got any I don't know,

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Speaker 2: any confirmation or further confirmation that inflation's falling, or rather

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Speaker 2: than whether inflation's falling how quickly it's falling, because we

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Speaker 2: know it's coming down, but it's just a matter of

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Speaker 2: how much.

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Speaker 1: So what do you expect?

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Speaker 2: Oh, look the quarterly first, it looks like the headline

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Speaker 2: figure is going to be about the zero point three

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Speaker 2: for the quarter, round about two point nine annual inflation rate.

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Speaker 2: So remember that that incorporates the effect of the subsidies

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Speaker 2: on electricity from both the federal government and some state governments,

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Speaker 2: particularly up in Queensland where they've been giving us household

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Speaker 2: as a big rebate on our electricity. So a very

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Speaker 2: low headline figure. So in a sense, we've got that

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Speaker 2: headline figure in the two to three target range, which

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Speaker 2: will be a nice thing for I suppose inflation expectations.

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Speaker 2: But the trimmed mean, which we believe the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: does focus on more because it sort of strips out

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Speaker 2: what we might call these artificial changes in prices, probably

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Speaker 2: decelerating to aboutero point seven percent growth for the quarter

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Speaker 2: down to a round about that three point three three

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Speaker 2: point four something like that. So coming down towards the target,

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Speaker 2: anything around those numbers will just reinforce the rates on hold.

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Speaker 2: When the RBA meets next week, if we get a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower, then that'll excite a few people, and

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Speaker 2: particularly in the context of you know, for example, last week,

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Speaker 2: the Bank of Canada cutting into Straits and all these

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Speaker 2: other central banks that have been cutting and maybe that

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Speaker 2: rate cut scenario, which has sort of been a bit

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Speaker 2: of a sleep for the last few weeks, might just

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Speaker 2: awake from its hibernation. So all eyes on that inflation number.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, very exciting. Now there's a bunch of partial data

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Speaker 1: points this week too, but before I mean building approvals,

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Speaker 1: retail trade, lending data, but before we get us house prices.

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Speaker 1: What's going on in the property market house prices?

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Speaker 2: Now, yes, look, it's a really divergent price series from

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Speaker 2: city to city. Bottom line, house price growth is still slowing,

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Speaker 2: but in Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra already prices are

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Speaker 2: actually dropping not much, but they're down about that half

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Speaker 2: to one percent from where they were a quarter ago.

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Speaker 2: Likely to be reinforced with the numbers that come out

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Speaker 2: later this week for the month of October. Sydney's slowings

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Speaker 2: so probably about flat for the month, So confirming that,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe there's a lot of new listings out there.

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Speaker 2: The softening in the labor markets, except that we've had

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Speaker 2: that coming through, might just be seeing people sort of

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Speaker 2: putting their properties on the market, so there's a bit

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Speaker 2: of extra supply. Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane's still booming, but the

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Speaker 2: rate of increases slowing down, so we're expecting sort of

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Speaker 2: monthly increases between point five point seven for those still

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Speaker 2: strong cities. But overall, house prices are coming off the boil,

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Speaker 2: and as I said, we've got roughly half the country

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Speaker 2: with prices flat or down.

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Speaker 1: Okay, what were the retail sales figures that we're going

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Speaker 1: to see this week therefore September?

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Speaker 2: I presume Stephen, they are for September. Indeed, and we

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Speaker 2: had a lovely surprise last month. When you're trying to

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Speaker 2: forecast a month a lumber, you look what happened last

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Speaker 2: month to sort of see whether there's momental what it

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Speaker 2: means if there's another strong number. But you might recall

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Speaker 2: last month we had one point seven percent increase in

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Speaker 2: retail sales. That was August, where you know, we got

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Speaker 2: our income tax cuts paid. We mentioned the subsidies coming

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Speaker 2: through on electricity and other items, so maybe we saved

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Speaker 2: a few dollars that way. And of course wages growth

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Speaker 2: is still reasonable. So all of a sudden, the consumer

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Speaker 2: side of the economy wouldn't say it's roaring back, but

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Speaker 2: it's sort of found a base. Look, the market's looking

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Speaker 2: for a sort of a flatish result that, you know,

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Speaker 2: consolidating the jump that we saw in August in September. Again,

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Speaker 2: anything stronger slash weaker than that will give us a

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Speaker 2: bit more of a handle on how we consume as

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Speaker 2: we householders are dealing with this raid high king environment

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Speaker 2: that we've been in, these high interest rates and the

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Speaker 2: pressure that's occurring elsewhere. So I'll be watching that closely.

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Speaker 2: Building approvals, Sean, I think I've been like a broken

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Speaker 2: record on this for years. We want to see an increase.

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Speaker 2: The market's got basically a flat figure in there. So

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Speaker 2: we want to build more houses. The housing crisis that

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Speaker 2: some people are terming it, we want to build. We

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Speaker 2: need to build houses, and we need building approvals to

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Speaker 2: go up. So again, we just want to see a

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Speaker 2: positive result coming through on that monthly indicator.

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Speaker 1: And just quickly on the lending data.

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Speaker 2: Lending data, look, look, people are still borrowing. This is

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Speaker 2: the really curious thing about the housing site at the moment,

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Speaker 2: with prices moderating and activities saying a small uptick in

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Speaker 2: lending because people are still borrowing, reasonable about some money.

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Speaker 2: Access to capital's pretty good. The labor markets helping people

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Speaker 2: to borrow because they've got a job generally, and banks

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Speaker 2: like that of course, well they don't lean to people

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Speaker 2: or not. Huge amounts of people are run employed, so

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Speaker 2: that's going to be important. And in addition to that,

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Speaker 2: Melbourne Cup's not that far away, so after the weekend

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Speaker 2: that we just had, I'm narrowing it down. Yeah, the

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Speaker 2: map is my early tip, but I'm going to focus

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Speaker 2: on that for next week's week ahead.

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Speaker 1: All right, I thank you, Steve, and enjoy your week.

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Speaker 1: Thanks John A's Economus seven. Co coulis better known as

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Speaker 1: the Koki. You can find him at the cook dot

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Speaker 1: com and follow him on ex using the handle of

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Speaker 1: the Coirk. Come Sean Almer and this is fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed The week Ahead