WEBVTT - Who’s going to make Hamas surrender? 

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. He is what's on the front. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Claire Harvey. It's Wednesday, October one, twenty twenty five. A

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<v Speaker 1>complete Harmas surrender and the return of all hostages in

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<v Speaker 1>return for the release of Palestinian prisoners. That's the core

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<v Speaker 1>of a twenty point peace deal announced by Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and Benjamin Ette Yahoo, with the blessing of Arab and

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<v Speaker 1>Muslim leaders. But what's in it for Hamas and does

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<v Speaker 1>it have any hope of working today? Our Foreign editor

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan joins me for his characteristically acerbic and hilarious

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<v Speaker 1>assessment of what happens now.

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<v Speaker 2>Ladies and gentlemen, the presidents of the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm the Prime Minister of the State of Israel.

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<v Speaker 4>It's called peace in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 3>Will have permanently ended the war.

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<v Speaker 4>So the hostage is the coming back.

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<v Speaker 3>You are the greatest friend that Israel has ever had

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<v Speaker 3>in the White House.

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<v Speaker 4>So it would be headed by a gentleman known as

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<v Speaker 4>President Donald J. Trump of the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>This can be done the easy way, or it can

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<v Speaker 3>be done the hard way, but it will be done,

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<v Speaker 3>will be done.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor, Greg. We all

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<v Speaker 1>know Donald Trump likes a winner. It looks to me

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<v Speaker 1>like Benjamin Ettania, who is the winner here? What's your

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<v Speaker 1>rate of it?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's a very very good deal if it goes ahead,

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<v Speaker 2>and the Palestinians would be crazy to reject it. It's

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<v Speaker 2>the best deal they're ever going to get. But I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think it will happen. Trump is a tremendous impresario

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<v Speaker 2>of these White House events, but he hasn't been that

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<v Speaker 2>good on the follow through. You remember the summit with

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<v Speaker 2>Vladimir Putin that Trump had only a few weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 2>and nothing at all has happened. Trump has accomplished quite

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<v Speaker 2>a few things already in this steal. He's got the

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<v Speaker 2>golf Arab States on board, which is remarkable. But to

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<v Speaker 2>do that, he got Benjamin Nettna, who to apologize to

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<v Speaker 2>Qatar for conducting an operation on their territory and promise

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<v Speaker 2>not to do it again. Well, I've been covering Netnahu

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<v Speaker 2>for many decades, and let me tell you, you don't

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<v Speaker 2>get many apologies out of Benjamin Netah. Trump has done

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<v Speaker 2>a traditional American thing there, which is to reassure the

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<v Speaker 2>Gulf States, and that normally empowers them to be more

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<v Speaker 2>forthcoming to Israel. Now he's given netna Who an off

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<v Speaker 2>ramp from this military campaign. If Hamas comes to the party,

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<v Speaker 2>so nettna Who would be able to stop the major

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<v Speaker 2>military operations. And if the extreme right in his government

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<v Speaker 2>deserted him, probably he would get enough support from the

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<v Speaker 2>centrist parties still to get the peace plan accepted. But

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<v Speaker 2>the extreme right might just have the wit to stick

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<v Speaker 2>with something that Trump offers them. The ridiculous premature recognition

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<v Speaker 2>of Palestine by a number of states, including Australia, had

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<v Speaker 2>led to a huge move within Israel to annex part

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<v Speaker 2>of the West Bank. It was, as we all predicted,

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<v Speaker 2>one million percent counterproductive, but Trump seems to have stopped

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<v Speaker 2>net Nyahu from that. So that's an achievement for Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>And now it's the best deal of Palestinians we'll ever

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<v Speaker 2>get because it involves the United States directly in their

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<v Speaker 2>future prosperity. This is certainly the best chance the Palestinians

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<v Speaker 2>have had in a generation to get something productive. America

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<v Speaker 2>is certainly not talking about permanent colonialism in Gaza. They're

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<v Speaker 2>talking about a big international effort to restore, rebuild, and

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<v Speaker 2>reform Gaza. But the Palestinian leader in its long history

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<v Speaker 2>has never missed a chance to miss a chance, and

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas of course has to go out of business to

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<v Speaker 2>accept this deal, so probably they won't. But it's deeply unpredictable.

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<v Speaker 1>Who would be able to convince Hamas to surrender? Do

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<v Speaker 1>you think, Gregor? Or is it going to be a

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<v Speaker 1>matter of musk taken out of there by members of

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<v Speaker 1>this international stabilization force that Trump is talking about.

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<v Speaker 2>No one can force Hamas to surrender. Hamas is a

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<v Speaker 2>death cult infused with terrorist ideology, inspired by Iran, profoundly

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<v Speaker 2>committed to the Salafist Islamist extreme view of the world

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<v Speaker 2>in which Jews are a primordial enemy of all Muslims.

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<v Speaker 2>And from Hamas's point of view, they like what's happened.

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<v Speaker 2>They don't mind that there are tens of thousands of

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<v Speaker 2>Palestinian instead, that's fine with them. They want Israel to

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<v Speaker 2>be isolated internationally. So the International Stabilization Force only comes

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<v Speaker 2>into existence if Hummas surrenders. Indeed, the International Stabilization Force

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<v Speaker 2>is one of the long term weak points of the deal,

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<v Speaker 2>although I think it's the best thing on offer now

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<v Speaker 2>this deal. If Hamas rejects it isolates Humas instead of Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's another quite significant judo accomplishment by Trump. Really,

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<v Speaker 2>he's turned around the dynamic of international politics all on

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<v Speaker 2>his own. No one can force them to surrender, no

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<v Speaker 2>one can force them to do anything, and they are

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<v Speaker 2>being in this deal offered amnesty and safe passage out

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<v Speaker 2>of Gaza, so they don't even have to give themselves

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<v Speaker 2>up to death, but they have to give up all power,

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<v Speaker 2>and they have to give up the lingering leverage of

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<v Speaker 2>these probably twenty odd living hostages whom they continue to

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<v Speaker 2>torture and mistreat. So Hamas has to behave like reasonable

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<v Speaker 2>human beings, but there is no evidence so far that

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<v Speaker 2>they have that within them.

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<v Speaker 1>All these problems seem like the same problems that have

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<v Speaker 1>stopped peace since October seven, twenty twenty three. What is

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<v Speaker 1>different about this deal? Why have Arab and Muslim states

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<v Speaker 1>agreed to it? Why hasn't it Anya who agreed to

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<v Speaker 1>it when they haven't agreed before.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there have been several ceasefires before, several ceasefire proposals

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<v Speaker 2>that Israel has agreed to and Hamas has refused. But

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<v Speaker 2>then Hamas never wanted the peace deal, so they found

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<v Speaker 2>an excuse to pull away from it at the last minute.

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<v Speaker 2>Now what's different this time, Well, a couple of things.

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<v Speaker 2>First of all, all the Arab states, the Gulf States,

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<v Speaker 2>and indeed other big Muslim majority states like Pakistan and

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<v Speaker 2>Indonesia and Turkey have endorsed the deal. That's quite an

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<v Speaker 2>accomplishment of American state craft. Iran is much weaker than

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<v Speaker 2>it was before. It can't exercise the same leadership over

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas that it once did. Hasbla is out of the equation.

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<v Speaker 2>The Palestinian people in Gaza have suffered utterly, horrendously, appallingly terribly,

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<v Speaker 2>and I am critical of Israel's actions in the last

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<v Speaker 2>six months. Even though Israel has a right to wage

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<v Speaker 2>war on Hamas, I think in the last six months

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<v Speaker 2>there's been so little military benefit out of it. Now

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<v Speaker 2>Israel will eventually hunt down every last Hamas member in

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<v Speaker 2>Gaza and kill them if the war goes on. But

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<v Speaker 2>there must be now pressure from the Palestinian people. Although

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<v Speaker 2>Hummas always holds its own people in complete contempt. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>when those people bravely had anti Hummas demonstrations in Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>they were rounded up and beaten or killed, so they

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<v Speaker 2>don't care about Palestinian opinion. But you've got the whole

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<v Speaker 2>Arab world, the whole Muslim world, except Iran. The Palestinian

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<v Speaker 2>people all wanted end to this. Israel has prepared to

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<v Speaker 2>offer an end to this on reasonable terms. They have

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<v Speaker 2>a partial withdrawal and they allow the administration of Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>to go over to an international authority. But the long

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<v Speaker 2>term prospect of having the Americans take on Gaza's rebuilding

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<v Speaker 2>and prosperity as an American project is just fantastic and

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<v Speaker 2>unbelievably rare in the Trump Whitehouse. So the Palestinians would

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<v Speaker 2>be absolutely crazy to reject this. But on the other hand,

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<v Speaker 2>the Palestinians have rejected clear, concrete, generous offers of statehood

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<v Speaker 2>at least four times in the past, if you also

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<v Speaker 2>count their rejection of the original partition. Unlike the fatuous, nonsensical, idiotic, brainless,

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<v Speaker 2>hollow burblings of our own government in Australia, Trump has

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<v Speaker 2>offered both an incentive, a positive incentive. We're going to

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<v Speaker 2>help you rebuild a prosperous Gaza, and he's offered a

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<v Speaker 2>penalty if you don't do it. We back Israel's military action.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump doesn't deal in sort of come by our statements

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<v Speaker 2>of kindness and goodness. He's offering them a good deal.

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<v Speaker 2>If they don't take it, they are terrible consequences.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a real sense of New York real estate about this,

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<v Speaker 1>Greg And I've wondered, is this what the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>has been lacking for the past couple of thousand years?

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<v Speaker 1>Is a bit of sort of Manhattan property developer energy.

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<v Speaker 1>Point one of the twenty point plan is Gaza will

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<v Speaker 1>be a deradicalized terror free zone. Point two is Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're all imagining condominiums on the Mediterranean, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>But in all seriousness, is there something about Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>that is the magic factor here?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want to say that, Claire, because the deal

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<v Speaker 2>has not been delivered, so he is now offering a

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<v Speaker 2>very good deal. This is Trump at his best. But

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<v Speaker 2>previous presidents haven't been idiots. You know. Bill Clinton negotiated

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<v Speaker 2>a fantastic offer of a state under the Israeli Prime

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<v Speaker 2>Minister Aehood Barakle, the Palestine Israelata state on ninety three

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<v Speaker 2>or ninety five percent of the West Bank, plus compensating

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<v Speaker 2>territory from Israel proper, the whole of Gaza, and a

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<v Speaker 2>capital in East Jerusalem. Now that is the absolute maximal

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<v Speaker 2>dream that any Palestinian state could ever aspire to. And

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<v Speaker 2>they basically walked away from the deal. And Bill Clinton's

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<v Speaker 2>chief advice to George W. Bush when the handover came was,

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<v Speaker 2>don't trust Yasara Arafat, because they'll lie to you every

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<v Speaker 2>time he opens his mouth. So it's not as if

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<v Speaker 2>this is a unique Trump genius. I think this is

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<v Speaker 2>what the Americans do at their best. They put incentives

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<v Speaker 2>and penalties on the table. Trump is an unsentimental and

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<v Speaker 2>brutal realist, and that's a big advantage. I think Barack

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<v Speaker 2>Obama was misled by his own idealism or his own

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<v Speaker 2>view of the ease of human nature. The less you

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<v Speaker 2>know about the Middle East, the easier it is to solve.

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<v Speaker 2>The closer you are to it, the more intractable and

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<v Speaker 2>difficult it is. And even this deal good as it is,

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<v Speaker 2>I predict on balance, the Palestinians will reject it. Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>will find a way of killing it because they have

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<v Speaker 2>no interest in peace. You know, there was peace before

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<v Speaker 2>October seven, there was a ceasefire. Gaza was getting a

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<v Speaker 2>billion dollars a year in aid from Katara, one of

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<v Speaker 2>the Gulf states. Thousands upon thousands of Gazans were free

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<v Speaker 2>to work in Israel proper every day. There was economic development.

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<v Speaker 2>There are condominiums in the West Bank. You know, if

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<v Speaker 2>you go to Romala, there are all kinds of brand outlets,

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<v Speaker 2>stores and all the rest of it. The Israelis and

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<v Speaker 2>the Americans have always wanted the Palestinians to have something

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<v Speaker 2>they don't want to lose. That's part of the stakes

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<v Speaker 2>of peace. But the terrorists within the Palestinian movement and

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<v Speaker 2>fueled from outside the Palestinian movement by the likes of

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<v Speaker 2>Iran and has Blah, always want to destroy that dream.

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<v Speaker 2>They don't want peaceful co existence with Israel. So it'll

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<v Speaker 2>be interesting to see how the balance of forces resolves

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<v Speaker 2>the Palestinian decisions in this moment.

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<v Speaker 4>It's amazing. I think, Bib I'm in depending on you.

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<v Speaker 4>I think we probably shouldn't take questions, or would you

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<v Speaker 4>like to take a question or two from perhaps a

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<v Speaker 4>friendly Israeli reporter if there's sexual.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a very very tough proposition, but I would think,

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<v Speaker 3>mister President, that I would go by your instinct that

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<v Speaker 3>this is.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll have enough time for questions. Let's settle the issue first.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you very much. Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up. So, how does Tony Blair fit into the picture.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm curious about the Tony factor here, Greg.

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<v Speaker 4>And one of the people that wants to be on

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<v Speaker 4>the board is the UK former Prime Minister Tony Blair

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<v Speaker 4>good Man, very good Man, and some others.

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<v Speaker 1>Since leaving office in two thousand and seven, he's been

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<v Speaker 1>a Middle East envoy. It's kind of become a real

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<v Speaker 1>calling for him to try and get a solution here.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, he does have some runs on the board

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<v Speaker 1>with the Good Friday Agreement finally bringing peace between Northern

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<v Speaker 1>Ireland and the United Kingdom. What's your sense of Blair's

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<v Speaker 1>role so far in this and what it means that

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<v Speaker 1>he's supposedly going to be involved in this Board of Peace.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's useful. I wouldn't ever state it. And

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<v Speaker 2>nobody in international relations is really a magician, not Henry Kissinger,

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<v Speaker 2>not Tony Blair, not Donald Trump, not Richard Holbrook. Blair

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<v Speaker 2>is very capable and he has a lot of credibility

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<v Speaker 2>he's a little diminished in retirement because he's been pretty

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<v Speaker 2>promiscuous about the way he's made money for his founder

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<v Speaker 2>and for himself. But at the same time he is

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<v Speaker 2>a serious, capable, credible person, acceptable to both the Israelis

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<v Speaker 2>and the Arabs. He thens a bit of prestige. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it looks good. I mean, forgive my terrible world weary cynicism,

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<v Speaker 2>but you know, you remember how good the Oslo Accords

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<v Speaker 2>looked as well. But on the other hand, you can't

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<v Speaker 2>just speak, you can't just say, well, there's never going

0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:28.880
<v Speaker 2>to be any forward movement. We've all just got a

0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 2>grind beary. I think this is a pretty good offer,

0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.960
<v Speaker 2>But of course, even if it's accepted, implementing it will

0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 2>be enormously difficult. Now let me draw to your attention

0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:42.800
<v Speaker 2>what the obvious first difficulty will be. So say Hummas

0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 2>accepts this, and Israel conducts a partial withdrawal, the Hummus

0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:50.880
<v Speaker 2>guys lay down their weapons and go off and live

0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:55.760
<v Speaker 2>in Qatar or somewhere else. And then the International Administration

0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:58.440
<v Speaker 2>gets up and running and a lot of aid comes

0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 2>in and so forth. Are still going to be thousands

0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 2>and thousands and thousands of Ghazan young men who believe

0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:10.520
<v Speaker 2>in the Islamist ideology and who believe that Jews are

0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:12.320
<v Speaker 2>a plague upon the earth, and.

0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Who are traumatized by this very conflict or radicalized at least.

0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:19.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's true, but I don't think you can be

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.360
<v Speaker 2>mechanistic that way. You know, the ira was traumatized by

0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:26.080
<v Speaker 2>adam Is British occupation, but they didn't have a profound

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.840
<v Speaker 2>ideology that the British were the work of the devil.

0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 2>So when they made peace, they made peace, you know,

0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 2>and the Republic of Ireland became one of the most peaceful,

0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:37.320
<v Speaker 2>law abiding states in the history of the world. But

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:43.640
<v Speaker 2>this Islamist ideology is a very dynamic, proactive, serious, long

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 2>running ideology and movement with deep historical roots, you know,

0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.560
<v Speaker 2>long before the Muslim Brotherhood, but given a modern application

0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:55.920
<v Speaker 2>by the Muslim Brotherhood. Now now they believe that Americans

0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.800
<v Speaker 2>are the work of the devil, but they believe that

0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:04.280
<v Speaker 2>Jews are particularly an element of evil in the world. Now,

0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 2>the point I'm making is these young guys will still

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 2>be in Gaza, and at some point or other one

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 2>of them will say, I'm going to find glory by

0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:17.920
<v Speaker 2>killing some Jews. Now what happens then with the International

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 2>Stabilization Force. Does an Indonesian soldier or a Jordanian soldier,

0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:28.560
<v Speaker 2>or a Katari soldier or a Turkish soldier shoot a

0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:34.680
<v Speaker 2>Palestinian terrorist to prevent them attacking Israel because if they don't,

0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:38.960
<v Speaker 2>the Israelis will. And you know, polacekeeping forces in the

0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:43.040
<v Speaker 2>Middle East are good tourists and they sometimes play a

0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:48.840
<v Speaker 2>symbolic role, but they have no history of actually enforcing anything.

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:51.680
<v Speaker 2>So that's not a reason not to give it a try.

0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 2>But that's going to be one of the moments of truth.

0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.480
<v Speaker 2>And Natanyahu said in the White House press conference Israel

0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 2>would retain security responsibility for the foreseeable future. So after

0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:07.080
<v Speaker 2>October seven, Israeli is not going to let Guarsan terrorists

0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 2>come and murder Israeli civilians. But preventing that will be

0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.800
<v Speaker 2>a huge task for the international force. You can rest

0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 2>assured that the Palestinian leader who makes peace with Israel

0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 2>will be a number one target for Islamist terrorists, and

0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:28.040
<v Speaker 2>so far we haven't seen anyone brave enough to paint

0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:29.080
<v Speaker 2>that target on their back.

0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.640
<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:50.119
<v Speaker 1>all Gregs analysis plus the takes from our experts around

0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.240
<v Speaker 1>the world, and keep up with every development in this

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:57.200
<v Speaker 1>conflict anytime at the Australian dot com AU