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Speaker 1: From The Australian. He is what's on the front. I'm

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Speaker 1: Claire Harvey. It's Wednesday, October one, twenty twenty five. A

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Speaker 1: complete Harmas surrender and the return of all hostages in

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Speaker 1: return for the release of Palestinian prisoners. That's the core

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Speaker 1: of a twenty point peace deal announced by Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and Benjamin Ette Yahoo, with the blessing of Arab and

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Speaker 1: Muslim leaders. But what's in it for Hamas and does

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Speaker 1: it have any hope of working today? Our Foreign editor

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Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan joins me for his characteristically acerbic and hilarious

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Speaker 1: assessment of what happens now.

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Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, the presidents of the United States.

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Speaker 3: I'm the Prime Minister of the State of Israel.

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Speaker 4: It's called peace in the Middle East.

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Speaker 3: Will have permanently ended the war.

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Speaker 4: So the hostage is the coming back.

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Speaker 3: You are the greatest friend that Israel has ever had

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Speaker 3: in the White House.

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Speaker 4: So it would be headed by a gentleman known as

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Speaker 4: President Donald J. Trump of the United States.

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Speaker 3: This can be done the easy way, or it can

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Speaker 3: be done the hard way, but it will be done,

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Speaker 3: will be done.

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Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor, Greg. We all

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Speaker 1: know Donald Trump likes a winner. It looks to me

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Speaker 1: like Benjamin Ettania, who is the winner here? What's your

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Speaker 1: rate of it?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's a very very good deal if it goes ahead,

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Speaker 2: and the Palestinians would be crazy to reject it. It's

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Speaker 2: the best deal they're ever going to get. But I

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Speaker 2: don't think it will happen. Trump is a tremendous impresario

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Speaker 2: of these White House events, but he hasn't been that

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Speaker 2: good on the follow through. You remember the summit with

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin that Trump had only a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: and nothing at all has happened. Trump has accomplished quite

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Speaker 2: a few things already in this steal. He's got the

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Speaker 2: golf Arab States on board, which is remarkable. But to

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Speaker 2: do that, he got Benjamin Nettna, who to apologize to

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Speaker 2: Qatar for conducting an operation on their territory and promise

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Speaker 2: not to do it again. Well, I've been covering Netnahu

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Speaker 2: for many decades, and let me tell you, you don't

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Speaker 2: get many apologies out of Benjamin Netah. Trump has done

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Speaker 2: a traditional American thing there, which is to reassure the

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Speaker 2: Gulf States, and that normally empowers them to be more

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Speaker 2: forthcoming to Israel. Now he's given netna Who an off

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Speaker 2: ramp from this military campaign. If Hamas comes to the party,

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Speaker 2: so nettna Who would be able to stop the major

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Speaker 2: military operations. And if the extreme right in his government

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Speaker 2: deserted him, probably he would get enough support from the

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Speaker 2: centrist parties still to get the peace plan accepted. But

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Speaker 2: the extreme right might just have the wit to stick

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Speaker 2: with something that Trump offers them. The ridiculous premature recognition

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Speaker 2: of Palestine by a number of states, including Australia, had

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Speaker 2: led to a huge move within Israel to annex part

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Speaker 2: of the West Bank. It was, as we all predicted,

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Speaker 2: one million percent counterproductive, but Trump seems to have stopped

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Speaker 2: net Nyahu from that. So that's an achievement for Trump.

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Speaker 2: And now it's the best deal of Palestinians we'll ever

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Speaker 2: get because it involves the United States directly in their

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Speaker 2: future prosperity. This is certainly the best chance the Palestinians

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Speaker 2: have had in a generation to get something productive. America

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Speaker 2: is certainly not talking about permanent colonialism in Gaza. They're

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Speaker 2: talking about a big international effort to restore, rebuild, and

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Speaker 2: reform Gaza. But the Palestinian leader in its long history

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Speaker 2: has never missed a chance to miss a chance, and

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Speaker 2: Hamas of course has to go out of business to

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Speaker 2: accept this deal, so probably they won't. But it's deeply unpredictable.

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Speaker 1: Who would be able to convince Hamas to surrender? Do

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Speaker 1: you think, Gregor? Or is it going to be a

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Speaker 1: matter of musk taken out of there by members of

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Speaker 1: this international stabilization force that Trump is talking about.

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Speaker 2: No one can force Hamas to surrender. Hamas is a

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Speaker 2: death cult infused with terrorist ideology, inspired by Iran, profoundly

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Speaker 2: committed to the Salafist Islamist extreme view of the world

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Speaker 2: in which Jews are a primordial enemy of all Muslims.

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Speaker 2: And from Hamas's point of view, they like what's happened.

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Speaker 2: They don't mind that there are tens of thousands of

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Speaker 2: Palestinian instead, that's fine with them. They want Israel to

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Speaker 2: be isolated internationally. So the International Stabilization Force only comes

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Speaker 2: into existence if Hummas surrenders. Indeed, the International Stabilization Force

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Speaker 2: is one of the long term weak points of the deal,

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Speaker 2: although I think it's the best thing on offer now

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Speaker 2: this deal. If Hamas rejects it isolates Humas instead of Israel.

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Speaker 2: So that's another quite significant judo accomplishment by Trump. Really,

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Speaker 2: he's turned around the dynamic of international politics all on

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Speaker 2: his own. No one can force them to surrender, no

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Speaker 2: one can force them to do anything, and they are

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Speaker 2: being in this deal offered amnesty and safe passage out

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Speaker 2: of Gaza, so they don't even have to give themselves

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Speaker 2: up to death, but they have to give up all power,

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Speaker 2: and they have to give up the lingering leverage of

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Speaker 2: these probably twenty odd living hostages whom they continue to

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Speaker 2: torture and mistreat. So Hamas has to behave like reasonable

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Speaker 2: human beings, but there is no evidence so far that

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Speaker 2: they have that within them.

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Speaker 1: All these problems seem like the same problems that have

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Speaker 1: stopped peace since October seven, twenty twenty three. What is

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Speaker 1: different about this deal? Why have Arab and Muslim states

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Speaker 1: agreed to it? Why hasn't it Anya who agreed to

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Speaker 1: it when they haven't agreed before.

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Speaker 2: Well, there have been several ceasefires before, several ceasefire proposals

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Speaker 2: that Israel has agreed to and Hamas has refused. But

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Speaker 2: then Hamas never wanted the peace deal, so they found

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Speaker 2: an excuse to pull away from it at the last minute.

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Speaker 2: Now what's different this time, Well, a couple of things.

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Speaker 2: First of all, all the Arab states, the Gulf States,

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Speaker 2: and indeed other big Muslim majority states like Pakistan and

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Speaker 2: Indonesia and Turkey have endorsed the deal. That's quite an

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Speaker 2: accomplishment of American state craft. Iran is much weaker than

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Speaker 2: it was before. It can't exercise the same leadership over

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Speaker 2: Hamas that it once did. Hasbla is out of the equation.

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Speaker 2: The Palestinian people in Gaza have suffered utterly, horrendously, appallingly terribly,

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Speaker 2: and I am critical of Israel's actions in the last

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Speaker 2: six months. Even though Israel has a right to wage

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Speaker 2: war on Hamas, I think in the last six months

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Speaker 2: there's been so little military benefit out of it. Now

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Speaker 2: Israel will eventually hunt down every last Hamas member in

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Speaker 2: Gaza and kill them if the war goes on. But

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Speaker 2: there must be now pressure from the Palestinian people. Although

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Speaker 2: Hummas always holds its own people in complete contempt. You know,

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Speaker 2: when those people bravely had anti Hummas demonstrations in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: they were rounded up and beaten or killed, so they

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Speaker 2: don't care about Palestinian opinion. But you've got the whole

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Speaker 2: Arab world, the whole Muslim world, except Iran. The Palestinian

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Speaker 2: people all wanted end to this. Israel has prepared to

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Speaker 2: offer an end to this on reasonable terms. They have

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Speaker 2: a partial withdrawal and they allow the administration of Gaza

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Speaker 2: to go over to an international authority. But the long

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Speaker 2: term prospect of having the Americans take on Gaza's rebuilding

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Speaker 2: and prosperity as an American project is just fantastic and

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Speaker 2: unbelievably rare in the Trump Whitehouse. So the Palestinians would

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Speaker 2: be absolutely crazy to reject this. But on the other hand,

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Speaker 2: the Palestinians have rejected clear, concrete, generous offers of statehood

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Speaker 2: at least four times in the past, if you also

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Speaker 2: count their rejection of the original partition. Unlike the fatuous, nonsensical, idiotic, brainless,

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Speaker 2: hollow burblings of our own government in Australia, Trump has

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Speaker 2: offered both an incentive, a positive incentive. We're going to

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Speaker 2: help you rebuild a prosperous Gaza, and he's offered a

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Speaker 2: penalty if you don't do it. We back Israel's military action.

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Speaker 2: Trump doesn't deal in sort of come by our statements

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Speaker 2: of kindness and goodness. He's offering them a good deal.

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Speaker 2: If they don't take it, they are terrible consequences.

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Speaker 1: There's a real sense of New York real estate about this,

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Speaker 1: Greg And I've wondered, is this what the Middle East

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Speaker 1: has been lacking for the past couple of thousand years?

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Speaker 1: Is a bit of sort of Manhattan property developer energy.

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Speaker 1: Point one of the twenty point plan is Gaza will

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Speaker 1: be a deradicalized terror free zone. Point two is Gaza

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Speaker 1: will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're all imagining condominiums on the Mediterranean, of course,

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Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, is there something about Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: that is the magic factor here?

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Speaker 2: I don't want to say that, Claire, because the deal

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Speaker 2: has not been delivered, so he is now offering a

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Speaker 2: very good deal. This is Trump at his best. But

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Speaker 2: previous presidents haven't been idiots. You know. Bill Clinton negotiated

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Speaker 2: a fantastic offer of a state under the Israeli Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Aehood Barakle, the Palestine Israelata state on ninety three

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Speaker 2: or ninety five percent of the West Bank, plus compensating

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Speaker 2: territory from Israel proper, the whole of Gaza, and a

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Speaker 2: capital in East Jerusalem. Now that is the absolute maximal

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Speaker 2: dream that any Palestinian state could ever aspire to. And

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Speaker 2: they basically walked away from the deal. And Bill Clinton's

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Speaker 2: chief advice to George W. Bush when the handover came was,

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Speaker 2: don't trust Yasara Arafat, because they'll lie to you every

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Speaker 2: time he opens his mouth. So it's not as if

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Speaker 2: this is a unique Trump genius. I think this is

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Speaker 2: what the Americans do at their best. They put incentives

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Speaker 2: and penalties on the table. Trump is an unsentimental and

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Speaker 2: brutal realist, and that's a big advantage. I think Barack

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Speaker 2: Obama was misled by his own idealism or his own

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Speaker 2: view of the ease of human nature. The less you

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Speaker 2: know about the Middle East, the easier it is to solve.

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Speaker 2: The closer you are to it, the more intractable and

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Speaker 2: difficult it is. And even this deal good as it is,

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Speaker 2: I predict on balance, the Palestinians will reject it. Hamas

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Speaker 2: will find a way of killing it because they have

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Speaker 2: no interest in peace. You know, there was peace before

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Speaker 2: October seven, there was a ceasefire. Gaza was getting a

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Speaker 2: billion dollars a year in aid from Katara, one of

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Speaker 2: the Gulf states. Thousands upon thousands of Gazans were free

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Speaker 2: to work in Israel proper every day. There was economic development.

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Speaker 2: There are condominiums in the West Bank. You know, if

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Speaker 2: you go to Romala, there are all kinds of brand outlets,

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Speaker 2: stores and all the rest of it. The Israelis and

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Speaker 2: the Americans have always wanted the Palestinians to have something

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Speaker 2: they don't want to lose. That's part of the stakes

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Speaker 2: of peace. But the terrorists within the Palestinian movement and

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Speaker 2: fueled from outside the Palestinian movement by the likes of

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Speaker 2: Iran and has Blah, always want to destroy that dream.

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Speaker 2: They don't want peaceful co existence with Israel. So it'll

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Speaker 2: be interesting to see how the balance of forces resolves

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Speaker 2: the Palestinian decisions in this moment.

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Speaker 4: It's amazing. I think, Bib I'm in depending on you.

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Speaker 4: I think we probably shouldn't take questions, or would you

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Speaker 4: like to take a question or two from perhaps a

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Speaker 4: friendly Israeli reporter if there's sexual.

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Speaker 3: That's a very very tough proposition, but I would think,

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Speaker 3: mister President, that I would go by your instinct that

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Speaker 3: this is.

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Speaker 2: We'll have enough time for questions. Let's settle the issue first.

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Speaker 4: Thank you very much. Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Coming up. So, how does Tony Blair fit into the picture.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious about the Tony factor here, Greg.

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Speaker 4: And one of the people that wants to be on

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Speaker 4: the board is the UK former Prime Minister Tony Blair

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Speaker 4: good Man, very good Man, and some others.

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Speaker 1: Since leaving office in two thousand and seven, he's been

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Speaker 1: a Middle East envoy. It's kind of become a real

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Speaker 1: calling for him to try and get a solution here.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he does have some runs on the board

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Speaker 1: with the Good Friday Agreement finally bringing peace between Northern

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Speaker 1: Ireland and the United Kingdom. What's your sense of Blair's

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Speaker 1: role so far in this and what it means that

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Speaker 1: he's supposedly going to be involved in this Board of Peace.

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Speaker 2: I think it's useful. I wouldn't ever state it. And

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Speaker 2: nobody in international relations is really a magician, not Henry Kissinger,

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Speaker 2: not Tony Blair, not Donald Trump, not Richard Holbrook. Blair

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Speaker 2: is very capable and he has a lot of credibility

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Speaker 2: he's a little diminished in retirement because he's been pretty

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Speaker 2: promiscuous about the way he's made money for his founder

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Speaker 2: and for himself. But at the same time he is

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Speaker 2: a serious, capable, credible person, acceptable to both the Israelis

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Speaker 2: and the Arabs. He thens a bit of prestige. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it looks good. I mean, forgive my terrible world weary cynicism,

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Speaker 2: but you know, you remember how good the Oslo Accords

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Speaker 2: looked as well. But on the other hand, you can't

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Speaker 2: just speak, you can't just say, well, there's never going

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Speaker 2: to be any forward movement. We've all just got a

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Speaker 2: grind beary. I think this is a pretty good offer,

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Speaker 2: But of course, even if it's accepted, implementing it will

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Speaker 2: be enormously difficult. Now let me draw to your attention

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Speaker 2: what the obvious first difficulty will be. So say Hummas

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Speaker 2: accepts this, and Israel conducts a partial withdrawal, the Hummus

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Speaker 2: guys lay down their weapons and go off and live

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Speaker 2: in Qatar or somewhere else. And then the International Administration

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Speaker 2: gets up and running and a lot of aid comes

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Speaker 2: in and so forth. Are still going to be thousands

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Speaker 2: and thousands and thousands of Ghazan young men who believe

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Speaker 2: in the Islamist ideology and who believe that Jews are

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Speaker 2: a plague upon the earth, and.

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Speaker 1: Who are traumatized by this very conflict or radicalized at least.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true, but I don't think you can be

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Speaker 2: mechanistic that way. You know, the ira was traumatized by

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Speaker 2: adam Is British occupation, but they didn't have a profound

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Speaker 2: ideology that the British were the work of the devil.

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Speaker 2: So when they made peace, they made peace, you know,

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Speaker 2: and the Republic of Ireland became one of the most peaceful,

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Speaker 2: law abiding states in the history of the world. But

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Speaker 2: this Islamist ideology is a very dynamic, proactive, serious, long

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Speaker 2: running ideology and movement with deep historical roots, you know,

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Speaker 2: long before the Muslim Brotherhood, but given a modern application

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Speaker 2: by the Muslim Brotherhood. Now now they believe that Americans

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Speaker 2: are the work of the devil, but they believe that

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Speaker 2: Jews are particularly an element of evil in the world. Now,

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Speaker 2: the point I'm making is these young guys will still

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Speaker 2: be in Gaza, and at some point or other one

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Speaker 2: of them will say, I'm going to find glory by

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Speaker 2: killing some Jews. Now what happens then with the International

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Speaker 2: Stabilization Force. Does an Indonesian soldier or a Jordanian soldier,

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Speaker 2: or a Katari soldier or a Turkish soldier shoot a

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Speaker 2: Palestinian terrorist to prevent them attacking Israel because if they don't,

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Speaker 2: the Israelis will. And you know, polacekeeping forces in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East are good tourists and they sometimes play a

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Speaker 2: symbolic role, but they have no history of actually enforcing anything.

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Speaker 2: So that's not a reason not to give it a try.

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Speaker 2: But that's going to be one of the moments of truth.

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Speaker 2: And Natanyahu said in the White House press conference Israel

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Speaker 2: would retain security responsibility for the foreseeable future. So after

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Speaker 2: October seven, Israeli is not going to let Guarsan terrorists

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Speaker 2: come and murder Israeli civilians. But preventing that will be

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Speaker 2: a huge task for the international force. You can rest

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Speaker 2: assured that the Palestinian leader who makes peace with Israel

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Speaker 2: will be a number one target for Islamist terrorists, and

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Speaker 2: so far we haven't seen anyone brave enough to paint

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Speaker 2: that target on their back.

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Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read

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Speaker 1: all Gregs analysis plus the takes from our experts around

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Speaker 1: the world, and keep up with every development in this

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Speaker 1: conflict anytime at the Australian dot com AU