WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 16 September 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:07.200 From the Skyinging Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thank you, 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:09.240 Sherry Waa shaw I got for you tonight, No soooks, 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:11.719 no lefties, and a very special guest towards the end 0:00:11.720 --> 0:00:15.159 of the show. But first, Tanny Plipasik. She may well 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:18.160 end up costing the Labor Party it's majority and a 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:20.600 very significant chunk of that from the Northern Territory. I'll 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:23.520 explain why, as two seats are now well and truly 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:26.840 in play. Giggles, Miles is out and about today trying 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.120 to well, I suppose give himself some confidence and claims 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:33.040 that Labor will win or can wein the upcoming state election? 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:36.559 Please please no? And I mentioned that special guest. It's 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:38.760 a beautiful Annalys Nielson joining us with a big brain 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:40.800 and everything, and she'll be joining us about not just 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:43.040 fifty days to go in the election, but obviously the 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.479 events in the past twenty four hours. Now you know 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.919 that I'm a Trump fan. I copy it from all 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.240 sides like you probably do if you are as well. 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:54.280 But can I tell you why I'm a real Trump 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:58.520 fan in this election because of his response to when 0:00:58.560 --> 0:01:04.120 he was shot at remember fight, that was his response, 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.720 and there's this image, which I don't know who designed it. 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:09.160 It's popped up in a whole bunch of sort of 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:13.240 fringe T shirt websites, none of them in my size. 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:17.000 But I love this image because it is the internal 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:22.720 spirit of somebody who will not get knocked down, will 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:27.319 not be put in their place, will just keep going. 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:31.959 And think about this. If it was any of us 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:36.360 who had been shot at, let alone hit, our reaction 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:40.160 would be to cower a culture that's all about victimhood. 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.480 Will it turns into a little ball and hides not 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:47.680 trump like him, dislike him. Whatever the set of stones 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.960 on this guy will they're their own version of Mount Rushmore. 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:52.560 And I know I will copy it on the internet 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:54.840 for saying it. But how can you not think that 0:01:54.880 --> 0:02:08.600 when this was his reaction after he'd been shot, I 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:12.680 love that. I love that surge of adrenaline that didn't 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:17.120 turn into fear. It turned into standing up, chest out, 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:22.160 push back. And of course there are plenty of things 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:25.600 that he says that I don't like. There's plenty of 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:28.519 ways that he does things that I think he could 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:32.400 do better. But this is the imperfect vessel who is 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:37.760 standing up like previous generations have, like people who are 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:41.240 constantly told everything is wrong with their worldview. He goes, no, 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:47.400 here's our line, dig in and push. Well, as you 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:52.840 know today, he didn't get shot at but he was 0:02:54.560 --> 0:03:00.960 potentially due to die today as a second lunatic tried 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:06.160 to set up on a golf course to shoot kill 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.720 and as well film it all on a GoPro that 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:12.760 presumably would go straight up to social media. His own 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:15.799 version of the Zabruta film. But unlike the Zabruda film, 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:18.400 which of course was Kennedy getting shot and somebody else 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:22.760 filming it, the guy wanting to kill the president was 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:24.960 the one who wanted to film it. 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.520 Breaking news, the FBI is now investigating a shooting in 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:34.960 West Palm Beach as an attempted assassination against former President 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:36.040 Donald Trump. 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:37.640 The second time in just two months. 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:41.480 President Trump is safe following gunshots in his vicinity. 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:48.480 It was incredible today to see all the different news 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.120 websites lead with this in the morning because it was 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:53.360 a morning story and then slowly maturely said of ye 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:57.760 and lots of other stuff. Two organizations deserve credit. Sky 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:01.400 News kept it up leads story all day, so did 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:04.000 the Sydney Morning Herald. World under both because it is 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:07.840 the only thing anyone will remember from today, and it 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:12.520 is the second time somebody has tried to go after 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:16.680 the bloke who might be this close to the presidency 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:20.880 because he is this close to the presidency. This didn't 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:26.360 happen with Obama. Remember all of the garbage about how 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:28.839 racist America was and how they would respond to their 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:35.800 first black president. Zero of these moments. Instead Trump two 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.000 in a couple of months. This is how close it got. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:44.000 Probably between three and five hundred yards. But with a 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:47.440 rifle and a scope like that, that's not a long distance. 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:52.120 Channel nine excellent explanation. This was one hole on a 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.040 golf course away from where Trump was playing. 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.960 It was one thirty in the afternoon at his Trump 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:01.840 International Golf Club in West pa Beach. When Donald Trump 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:05.760 was walking between the fifth and sixth holes, one hole ahead. 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.240 A Secret Service agent was securing the area prior to 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:13.400 the former president's rifle. That agent spotted the barrel of 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:17.200 a rifle poking through the bushes. The agent fired four 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:20.400 to six shots at the suspect. It's not clear if 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:21.719 Ralph fired back. 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:27.840 Now two scenarios here, one amazing, like think about any 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:30.760 of us walking on a golf course or in a park. 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:34.039 What you would be able to notice in the bushes, 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:39.000 something as long as the seventh hole being able on 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:43.520 either side, and to see the barrel of the gun. Unbelievable, 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:48.520 frightening that even after he shot four to six times 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.400 in the direction of the gunman, the gunman wasn't hit, 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.680 Which means if there was a scenario of shots coming 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:58.479 this way and those were the shots coming back, the 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:01.520 likelihood is that there would be many more shots than 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:03.559 what we saw with our own eyes back in July. 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:12.120 Now again, we are in this moment where there is 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:14.479 an organization whose job it is to create a bubble 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:18.320 around a president. Because Trump is who he is. He's 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.360 not going to hide in the ballroom of his house. 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:24.560 He's not going to hide at Marra Lago, He's not 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:29.000 going to hide in the penthouse in New York. He 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.680 is going to walk out onto a golf course that's 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:35.120 a huge threat area, but he ain't going to stop, 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:37.279 and you have to find a way to protect him. 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:41.880 But amazingly, today there is a difference between somebody who's 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.840 been a president and somebody who's potentially about to be 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:49.640 a president and somebody who is the president. This is 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:53.039 even after the former president, who may will be about 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.040 to become the president again or at the very least, 0:06:55.080 --> 0:07:01.200 is certainly this close to it right now. They admitted 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:05.000 today there wasn't as much security around him as there 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:07.520 would be if Biden was playing golf. 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:11.560 Well, you got to understand, the golf course is surrounded 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:14.480 by shrubbery, so when somebody gets into the shrubbery, they're 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:17.920 pretty much out of sight, all right. And at this 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:20.200 level that he is at right now, he's not the 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:22.680 city president. If he was, we would have had this 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:24.040 higher golf course around it. 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:25.640 Well, because he's not. 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:28.400 The security is limited to the areas that the Secret 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:33.520 Service deems possible. So I would imagine that the next 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:35.720 time he comes at a golf course, there'll probably be 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:37.840 a little bit more people around the perimeter. 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:45.240 De Gold, the man has already been shot at. There 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:48.840 are how many threats that are out there, and America 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:51.800 is sadly a country with too many mentally ill people 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:55.040 and too many access too much access to weapons. We 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.160 see it in so many occasions at so many times. 0:07:57.160 --> 0:08:00.440 And that's not to offend the gun owners of America. 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:04.960 That's just the reality of what's happening here, But it 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:07.000 all depends whether he's sworn in or not sworn in. 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:10.920 When he is one of two people who are on 0:08:10.960 --> 0:08:13.280 a trajectory to being the next president. The idea that 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:16.160 both Trump and Harris are not surrounded as if they 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:21.960 were president right now should be frightening to everyone because 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:25.680 the consequences of one of those two candidates being injured 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:31.040 or losing their life would be catastrophic for the United States. 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:36.079 The flow on effect around the Western world would be enormous. 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:41.720 So they should be wrapping potential presidents in the same 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:45.480 bubble as the president because we are tonight fifty days 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:49.400 away from that election. Now. We also had been told 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:53.800 that the Secret Service had some learned its lesson from 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:59.040 believe it or not, the other time this year, that 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:01.640 somebody was planning to killed Donald Trump and successfully got 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:07.880 shots off and successfully hit him in the year millimeters 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.640 between a story that people want to forget at a 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:13.480 moment in history that your kids will learn about for 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:20.280 the rest of time. The person responsible for the Secret 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:22.680 Service at that moment, as you just saw, she gave evidence, 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:27.040 no answers. She eventually wasn't sacked, of course, because nobody 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:30.360 gets sacked for failures in the United States upper echelons 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:34.000 under this administration, so she, of course was allowed to resign. 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.280 One of the people who was questioning her said something 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:41.520 again frightening. Regardless of whether you're a Trump or a 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:45.559 Harris supporter, booster, or just somebody who wants the United States, 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:54.640 not China or Russia, to be the top of the tree. 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:57.079 The problem is you've got a secret service, at least 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.680 in my opinion and in the public sye, that has 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.440 calm promised and that it lacks in leadership. And you've 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:06.640 got brave agents on the ground, obviously one who took 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.760 that shot. But why in the world would anybody be 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:13.040 anywhere near the perimeter of this this line of sight 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.520 that we talk about Now. 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.360 I'm not going to go on forever, and there's other 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:19.200 things to talk about. We'll get to all of those things. 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:24.440 But back to that image of Trump and fight. It 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:30.240 is just this absolute, in my view, guiding symbol of 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:33.240 everything he's about, but more importantly, everything that those of 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:38.000 us who want him to succeed are fighting against. That 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:42.120 was his reaction when everyone else would cow, when everyone 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:47.600 else would hide. Today, Sean Hannity, who will be interviewing 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:50.400 people in and around this incident tomorrow middle of the day, 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:53.200 Fox News. We'll have it for you here tomorrow and nine. 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:55.840 This is what he had to say about the President's 0:10:56.120 --> 0:11:01.079 reaction after the incident took place, and we all saw 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:04.360 the footage of the sniper's nest, where the plan was 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:06.880 all there, where the camera was all set up, where 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:09.880 there was ceramic tiles, that's what's in the plastic bags, 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:14.240 and of course the ak with the site on it. 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:18.920 This was apparently Trump's response, honestly, like, dislike, hate the man. 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.640 How could you not be impressed that this is his 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.160 response when that's what could have happened. 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.920 Then when the President found out everybody was safe and 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:34.600 nobody had been harmed, I guess in typical fight fight 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:39.120 fade fashion, Trump said to Steve, and then he related 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.720 to me, I really wanted to finish the hall. I 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.960 was even and I had a birdie put. 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.560 I love it, I really love it. And again I 0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:51.400 know what I'm copping for this. I can see the 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.679 turnbul times the Guardian getting ready with their second by 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:57.280 second review. I know what's going to happen over at 0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:00.560 Channel two. I know that twitters are huh there. How 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:05.720 can you not want that in a leader that rather 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.520 than somebody who cowers and then stretches it out and 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:12.360 talks about all the stuff that would happen if it 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:15.880 was anyone else. But this bloke, he shows us in 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:18.560 these moments where there's no advisers, there's no time to 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:21.480 think exactly the type of person that he would be 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:23.720 and that he is and that he would be as 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.440 a president, Which is why again I'm all in. I 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.040 get why that is problematic. I get why sometimes that's 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.640 difficult and I lose mates as a result of it. 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:34.880 But that's why I remain as all in on the 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:40.000 bloke as I ever have been. Now about the lunatic 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:42.560 and I'm sorry. You know we're very sensitive to mental 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.120 health on this program, but when you're doing this staff 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:49.640 psycho right now, generally speaking we don't talk about assailants. 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:54.280 But because thankfully everyone is alive on both sides of this, 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:59.880 I'll do it quickly. The sun of this bloke says 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:06.880 that he hated Trump like every other thinking person. This 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:10.840 bloke is fifty eight years of age. He apparently had 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.360 to be in his bondet about things like Ukraine, but 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:16.720 he's alive. So we're going to find out more. And 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:18.679 now no doubt someone somewhere is going to find something 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:20.520 that somehow will mean No, he's not as dangerous as 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.120 he seems. No, he's as kooky as you think he is. 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:29.640 But there's another part of this story that nobody attached 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:34.640 to it today. And I wonder why. Remember when he 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:39.120 was shot at the first time, and this was the 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:44.480 message from his political opponent, you know, the political regular. 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:48.199 This country has gotten very heated. It's time to cool 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:48.640 it down. 0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:50.839 We've traveled before throughout our history. 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:55.280 Violence has never been the answer, great sentiment. The problem 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.280 is he'd spent months and months and months talking about 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.720 a threat to democracy country, Your sky will fall in 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:03.080 brand and all of that business. Have a look today 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.360 on one of the television shows that he's covering the 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.920 breaking news, not six hours later, not four days after 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.400 the breaking news of what could have been potentially the 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:14.520 death of one of two people who will be the 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:18.240 next president of the United States, or apparently it's Trump's fault. 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:23.880 Today's apparent assassination attempt comes amid increasingly fierce rhetoric on 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.280 the campaign trail itself. Mister Trump is running made JD. 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:31.960 Vans continue to make baseless claims about Haitian immigrants in Ohio. 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.920 Do you expect to hear anything from the Trump campaign 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:38.560 about toning down the rhetoric, toning down the violence. 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.880 He's the one that was shot at and was about 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:46.840 to be shot at because it's fifty days out. No mercy, 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:50.840 No mercy, because this is the worst of the worst. 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:58.200 Another thing is that they don't just hate Trump. One 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.120 of them actually told us that they hate anyone who 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:06.840 supports Trump because they think you too, are surplus to 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:08.880 the future of the world. Have a look. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:11.960 Everything he does is despicable. 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.560 The reason why it doesn't and his career is because 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.560 his supporters are just as despicable. 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.960 Screw you, pal, screw you now. Of course, let me 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.520 be very quick when this gets edited up somewhere else 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:29.600 to say, no violence against that guy, whatsoever, No threats. 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:36.000 But that's the insight. The American election is something that 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.680 I am so focused on because of its importance to 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:43.440 the rest of the world. America is at a fork 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.640 in the road, and in my view, the fundamental fork 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:52.360 in the road here is Trump will challenge a failing system. 0:15:54.200 --> 0:16:00.680 Harris will continue it and hide behind it. If you 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:02.720 have the chance to vote in the United States and 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:11.240 you are watching this online somewhere, fight fight, fight metaphorically 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:16.120 with your strength, with your purpose, not with your fists, 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:20.720 not with your guns. But fight, fight, fight, because the 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:23.920 rest of the world is watching, and we care deeply 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:31.560 about who wins. Here at home, you may well know 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.080 that Anthony Albernezi, greatest Prome Minister of all time, just 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.960 ask him, is in a world of trouble. Every single 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:39.400 week a new poll tells the same story, which is 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:43.040 down down. Not prices are down, but down down. Elbow 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:49.760 is down. And today the polls in the Financial Review 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:53.720 fifty two to forty eight. Now, this is the most 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:55.760 generous to the Coalition of all of the polls that 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.080 have been published thus far. It is an outline compared 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:01.680 to fifty fifth, which is where Newspole is. But let's 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:06.199 not ignore this because it is huge. It also shows 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:10.920 that when it comes to the preferred prime Minister, that again, 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.480 while Anthony Abernezi is ever so slightly just in front, 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:18.800 when it comes to his own favorable and unfavorable rating, 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.560 well and truly, more people have an unfavorable opinion of 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:25.520 the Prime Minister than they do Peter Dutton, which I 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:28.119 know is very hard to believe if you only listen 0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:32.680 to Radio National and watch the Channel two talking shows 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.760 or listen to certain lefty podcasts, isn't Peter Dutton the problem? Well, 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:38.080 of course, the reason that you're able to get to 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:40.879 fifty two to forty eight is because the Liberal National 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.000 Party now has a four in front of it. They 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.639 win elections when there is a four in front of 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:51.000 their primary vote. Now, I have also always said the 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:54.280 independent the Teel factor is the reason why I'm not 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:58.600 part of this one term Elbow thing, right. But amazingly, 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:01.160 the analysis of this is what I want to spend 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:06.359 a couple of minutes actually getting into because the people 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:09.040 who presented the poll, the people who have analyzed the pole, 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:12.119 they are now starting to conclude that if that is true, 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:13.800 and again I think it's a little bit too hot, 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:17.199 but still, if that is true, it's not just a 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:23.800 minority government of Albow, but potentially one for Dutton two. Now, 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.080 again a lot has to go, right, I'll get to 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:27.440 some of the seats and I'll get why. I think 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:31.840 that this is sort of perhaps a little generous, but 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:35.480 still if the election result, if sorry, if the result 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.560 was reflected on election day, the election would be conducted 0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:41.479 in the laboratory in which a swing was uniform. Now, 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:45.879 of course it's not always Peter Dutton would get seventy 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:50.520 five seats. Seventy five seats. Now, let me introduce you 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:52.600 to this guy. He gets even deeper into where it's 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:57.360 all potentially going to change. John Black, former Labor senator 0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:01.399 from Queensland. He wrote in Peace in the Financial Review 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:03.919 breaking all of this down. He says, my current estimates 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.119 are that the Coalition will comfortably win more seats in 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:08.840 the House of Representatives than Labour in twenty twenty five. 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:12.280 That's big because it's the first person who's come out 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:14.800 and is willing to say that, and obviously it's in 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:16.560 print and reputations are on the line, so we'll all 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:18.360 find out together. But every other piece of data would 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.199 suggest that Labour gets more seats than the NP at 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:26.520 this stage because of principally the teals why the reasons 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:28.880 has always start with household economics. During the past two 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:33.000 years Albereesi government, families have found their household disposible incomes 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:36.560 dropping eight percentage points. It's like we've been watching this 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:41.919 every day politically. Last week's Resolve political monitor that we 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:44.040 showed you showed that the government is getting blamed for 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.119 economic issues. Number fifty one percent of people say that 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:49.240 the inflation problem is the government's to deal with, not 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:54.960 the Reserve Bank. So the seats the suggestion here and 0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:57.480 now again these are all best case scenarios. I won't 0:19:57.520 --> 0:19:59.479 go through and say what I agree and disagree with, 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:03.440 but here's the of you. Their belief is that Paramatta, Patterson, 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:07.480 Robertson Gilmore would all be pickups in New South Wales. 0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:15.080 There are way too many in Victoria, but still cou Yong, Menzies, Aston, Chisholm, Bruce, McEwen, Monash. 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:19.440 The Greens would lose seats, not gained seats. They would 0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:23.080 lose seats to the LMP in Brisbane and Ryan. The 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:26.119 new seat of Bullwinkle in Western Australia plus Tangy and 0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:28.960 the Teal seat of Curtains are two of the Teals 0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:33.480 would disappear in the Northern Territory. This is why I 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.000 have been talking about the Beaterloo basin. It's why we're 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:38.800 gonna have Matt Cunningham on the show tonight because if 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.800 Tannia Pluppa Seek is about to blow a hole in 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:46.119 six and a half thousand jobs and five hundred trillion 0:20:46.400 --> 0:20:51.400 tons of gas. Goodbye Solomon, which is Darwin. The Labour 0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:53.040 Party can't win a trick in nall of Spring, so 0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:55.840 potentially Lingiari as well our mate Nicole Flint up in 0:20:55.840 --> 0:21:00.199 Boothby and the seat of Lions in Tasmania. All that 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:01.560 means that when we add it all up, we find 0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:03.919 that Labor is down thirteen seats from seventy eight to 0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:07.880 sixty five, Coalition up seventeen from fifty five to seventy two, 0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:13.160 three possible additional gains, again everything being all going their way. 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:17.400 I don't know from what do they say his mouth 0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:21.960 to old mate's lips, but you get my point. But 0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:24.840 believe it or not, despite the fact that the establishment 0:21:25.160 --> 0:21:28.520 literally try to ignore, and if they do engage, they'll 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:32.040 just roll their eyes or laugh at this show me 0:21:32.160 --> 0:21:38.080 in particular, guess what they're starting to notice what we've 0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:43.679 been talking about now every night for two and a 0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:51.199 bit years. Patricia Cavales, host of Radio National Breakfast. I 0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:53.040 will not pretend that I'm going after a here. In 0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:56.080 actual fact, it's always been quite pleasant every time we 0:21:56.080 --> 0:22:00.280 say helo to each other. Great, fine, all good lane, 0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:02.600 I'm in mind. Fine. But she wrote a piece today 0:22:02.600 --> 0:22:05.520 where guess what, she's noticed that the Labor Party promised 0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:09.520 that everything was going to be better, but it actually isn't. Again, 0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:13.159 two people, two different lanes that are now starting to merge. 0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:15.240 I'm sure that'll be great for all of her fans. 0:22:16.640 --> 0:22:19.719 And the number one issue again, she's discovered cost of living. 0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:23.240 In fact, she says, the cost of living question that 0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:25.840 could shape as straight as next federal election. What is 0:22:25.880 --> 0:22:28.159 that question? Well, that question is, of course all in 0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:31.240 and around the same question that was the first question 0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:34.639 that was asked of the US presidential debate. It is, 0:22:34.680 --> 0:22:39.520 of course this when it comes to the economy, do 0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:41.680 you believe Americans are better off than they were four 0:22:41.760 --> 0:22:45.760 years ago? It's the whole point when you are trying 0:22:45.800 --> 0:22:48.879 to get another term in office, in this case the 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:52.280 second term in office, or back to back for her 0:22:52.960 --> 0:22:55.240 with the Biden administration, of which she is already the 0:22:55.280 --> 0:23:00.200 co piloting. Have you made people's lives better matters? When 0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:03.320 you promised to make people's lives better and you failed 0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:07.520 to deliver, the political whiplash is going to be pretty obvious. 0:23:08.800 --> 0:23:12.479 And again PK points out in her column the polling 0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:16.720 that comes from Redbridge fifty seven percent of Australians when asked, 0:23:16.760 --> 0:23:21.960 cannot name a single thing ducky nothing, bugger all. They 0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:24.880 cannot name a single thing the federal government has done, 0:23:25.000 --> 0:23:27.960 led by Anthony Abernezi since being elected in May of 0:23:28.000 --> 0:23:33.280 twenty twenty two, that made their life better. And why 0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:35.720 the pols going the way they are again all of 0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:38.040 the things we've been talking about. There's plenty of room 0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:40.399 here in the bandwagon for everyone to start to notice, well, 0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:43.119 we've been noticing for how long what you've been living for? 0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:49.679 How long? This week's political research group that Redbridge conducted 0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:51.960 and they did focus groups since Indney West and Melbourne's 0:23:51.960 --> 0:23:54.879 West would of course elections, LIB will die for the 0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:59.600 first time in our collective years of research, both suburban 0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:03.720 Melbourne suburban Sydney are expressing their politics in very similar way. 0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:09.760 None of it is good news for the incumbent government. 0:24:10.440 --> 0:24:12.000 But before we start to put the Q in the 0:24:12.119 --> 0:24:14.720 rack and say well one term Prime Minister, this is 0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:18.000 all going to happen, just keep pointing at them. The 0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:20.800 opposition has to come up with something. The opposition has 0:24:20.840 --> 0:24:22.720 to tell us what would they do on the questions 0:24:22.720 --> 0:24:24.640 in and around cost of living. Now, this is dangerous 0:24:24.640 --> 0:24:27.360 because the government, which has got all the treasury, all 0:24:27.359 --> 0:24:30.400 the media, all of the people trying to blow holes 0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:33.119 in the argument. But they do have to come up 0:24:33.119 --> 0:24:34.760