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Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, March twenty four, twenty twenty five. A dispute

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Speaker 1: between two high profile Australian Jewish women over the Gaza

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Speaker 1: conflict and anti Semitism is hitting the courts, with police

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Speaker 1: applying in Victorian courts for a personal safety intervention order

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Speaker 1: to protect Sarah Schwartz. She runs an outfit called the

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Speaker 1: Jewish Council, which is critical of Israel. That's an exclusive

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Speaker 1: live now at the Australian dot com dot AU. Treasurer

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Speaker 1: Jim Chalmers will announce another one point eight billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in energy bill rebates for households in Tuesday's budget. It's

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Speaker 1: the government's attempt to set up a cost of living

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Speaker 1: election debate with the opposition. Just one sleep to go

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Speaker 1: until the federal budget. And if that phrase gives you

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Speaker 1: the hebgbis, I've brought in the Ultimate Budget Whisperer to

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Speaker 1: explain Anthony olbene easy strategy in holding a budget two

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Speaker 1: months earlier than usual. Today we'll dish up all the

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Speaker 1: bits of the budget you need to know about and

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Speaker 1: work out why we're having a budget at all. National

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Speaker 1: Editor Dennis Shanahan is here.

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Speaker 2: Ah the budget, mister Speaker.

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Speaker 1: Lots of lofty statements, restraint and responsibility, uncertain times.

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Speaker 2: This is a budget for the here and now, and

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Speaker 2: it's a budget for the decades to come.

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Speaker 1: Budget's freak me out a little. I've been around politics

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Speaker 1: since the nineteen nineties and I've covered lots of budgets,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not a full time press gallery specialist. When

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Speaker 1: we go into the budget lockup on Tuesday, which is

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Speaker 1: where we get the embargoed budget papers hours before they're

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Speaker 1: publicly released, I'll park myself next to National Editor Dennis

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Speaker 1: Shanahan and watch him fill it out the juicy bits.

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Speaker 1: The lockup is a Canberra writual. This is how we

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Speaker 1: captured it here on the front last time.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Budget twenty twenty four to twenty five

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Speaker 3: lock ups. I'm not bringing mobile phones or smart watches

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Speaker 3: in for the lock up. Not publish, transmit, release, or

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Speaker 3: disclose in any manner budget information until the embargo is lifted.

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Speaker 1: That's a Treasury official reading the rules. We have to

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Speaker 1: sign non disclosure agreements and hand over all our devices.

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Speaker 1: The Internet is switched off the stack of papers we

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Speaker 1: get is intimidating. It's about a foot high. There's also

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Speaker 1: a stack of press releases where the government brags about

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Speaker 1: all the great stuff it's doing. A lot of budget

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Speaker 1: coverage you'll read is the top line stuff, new spending,

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Speaker 1: how big the deficit. But the real story the journalists

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Speaker 1: have to figure that out for themselves. And this is

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Speaker 1: where Dennis comes in.

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Speaker 4: I was trying to do a quick calculation.

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Speaker 2: This is at least thirty five thirty six budgets for

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Speaker 2: the Australian on the trot.

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Speaker 4: So after a while they tend to.

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Speaker 2: Lose their mystery and their fear and shock and awe,

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Speaker 2: and you tend to look at a few basics.

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Speaker 4: I learned under the great Alan Wood that when there's a.

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Speaker 2: Couple of pages in the budget, you can go there

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Speaker 2: and you get a very good flavor of what the

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Speaker 2: budget's really about. The other sort of old companion is

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Speaker 2: Paul Kelly. And between Alan Wood and Paul Kelly, I

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Speaker 2: learned to be able to look at the economics and

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Speaker 2: the political side of a budget. And that's what Paul

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Speaker 2: and I will be doing on Tuesday night.

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Speaker 1: Now, let's talk about this budget. Normally, budgets are held

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Speaker 1: in May and that's when the last one was held.

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Speaker 1: But this is March. We're having a budget.

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Speaker 4: Why well, it's election.

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Speaker 2: Simple is that when Anthony Alberanzi was elected in May

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Speaker 2: twenty two, the election was always going to have to

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Speaker 2: be held in the middle of May this year at

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Speaker 2: the latest. And to his credit, Anthony Alberaneze has always

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Speaker 2: said he wanted to go as close to full term

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Speaker 2: as he could, and so what we're looking at is

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Speaker 2: really the long term plan of the Prime Minister for

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Speaker 2: elections and budgets coming to fruition.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so let's talk about what this budget is actually for.

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Speaker 1: We've heard a little bit about what's going to be

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Speaker 1: in the budget. A continuation of the energy bill relief

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Speaker 1: that they brought about last time, which hasn't stopped. I

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Speaker 1: might add power bills soaring by up to one thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars per household. There's going to be some more helpful

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Speaker 1: young people. First home buy is to get into the

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Speaker 1: housing market. But strategically, Dennison, tactically, what is this budget

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Speaker 1: going to do for Anthony Albanesi.

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Speaker 2: It was always planned as part of the big economic shift.

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Speaker 4: There was an overall economic plan.

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Speaker 2: That by the end of last year, the economy would

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Speaker 2: be showing signs of improvement, inflation would be falling, interest

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Speaker 2: rates would have come down, perhaps by one or two

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Speaker 2: cuts from the Reserve Bank, and that the government would

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Speaker 2: be going into this year with a growing economy, a

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Speaker 2: better outlook and be able to bring down a budget

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Speaker 2: and say where've succeeded. You can't trust the opposition.

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Speaker 1: So how's that going well? Interest rates have fallen once

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Speaker 1: the headline inflation rate is down, unemployment is low, but

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Speaker 1: prices are still high, particularly the rents, fuel and energy

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Speaker 1: prices that we all have to pay. Last budget they

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Speaker 1: gave every household a three hundred dollars energy bill rebate,

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Speaker 1: paid directly to the power suppliers. This budget will extend

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Speaker 1: it by an about one hundred and fifty dollars up

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Speaker 1: to Christmas. The government said that brought bills down twenty

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Speaker 1: five percent from what they would have been otherwise, but

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Speaker 1: overall prices have gone up so much that the government's

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Speaker 1: not getting a lot of credit for reducing those bills.

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Speaker 2: I don't think anyone in Australia can look at a

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Speaker 2: gas or electricity bill and say it's less than twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent than what it was last time, so it's

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Speaker 2: just not credible.

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Speaker 4: But at the.

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Speaker 2: Same time, clearly the government has been campaigning since January.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister has been spending a billion dollars a week,

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Speaker 2: promising to spend a billion dollars a week, including eight

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Speaker 2: billion on Medicare, another billion on prescription medicines just last week.

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Speaker 2: So what we're seeing is a big spenders on because

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Speaker 2: whatever's in the budget, it's going to be what's in

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Speaker 2: the campaign and how the campaign is conducted which will

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Speaker 2: decide the election.

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Speaker 1: Coming up. Where does Peter Dunton take it from here?

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Speaker 1: So do you expect in those budget papers on Tuesday

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Speaker 1: there'll be a big announcement of some kind of out

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Speaker 1: something or do you think it's going to be Pi's

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Speaker 1: some money that we've kept aside and we'll let you

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Speaker 1: know what it is once the campaign gets going.

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Speaker 4: I think that there will be something. The Prime Minister

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Speaker 4: has previously signaled that.

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Speaker 2: They're going to go for a model where people would

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Speaker 2: only pay twenty to thirty dollars a week for childcare.

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Speaker 4: The Treasurer said.

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Speaker 2: No, we're not quite looking at that model, which tends

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Speaker 2: to suggest they're looking at another model. If there is

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Speaker 2: to be a bigger announcement than the energy rebate in

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Speaker 2: the budget, it will be childcare. And of course you

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Speaker 2: will talk about having better economic management, the economy turning

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Speaker 2: the corner, and voters would be better off under this

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Speaker 2: labor budget and this labor government than they would under

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Speaker 2: a coalition government and a coalition budget.

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Speaker 1: So if it is childcare and we're looking at an

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Speaker 1: election where childcare is a big front and center issue,

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Speaker 1: is that risky Dennis? Given that people have kids in

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Speaker 1: childcare for maybe ten years or maybe five years, and

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Speaker 1: then they move on, they feel like they've done their

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Speaker 1: hard yards and that's it. Is there a risk that

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Speaker 1: some of the economy feels this is not really for me.

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Speaker 4: There's no doubt about that.

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Speaker 2: The problem I think for the government is that for

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Speaker 2: this year, in this election, the over fifty fives will

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Speaker 2: reach thirty nine percent of voters, and that is the

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Speaker 2: largest cohort for the over fifty fives ever and the

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Speaker 2: largest age cohort in the election.

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Speaker 4: So there'll be a large number.

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Speaker 2: Of voters more concerned about their superannuation than they are

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Speaker 2: about trying to save money on childcare. For couples earning

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Speaker 2: up to half a million dollars. So I think there

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Speaker 2: is a real danger here that it will be seen

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Speaker 2: to be a continuation of the whole US style Democrat

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Speaker 2: offerings to the younger, sometimes more affluent people working couples

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Speaker 2: than it is to those who are sustaining themselves in

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Speaker 2: retirement or working without government assistance and paying higher taxes.

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Speaker 1: Now, of course Peter Dutton gets a chance to make

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Speaker 1: a budget in reply speech where he sets out some

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Speaker 1: ideas of his own. Last year he used it as

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Speaker 1: an opportunity to talk about nuclear power, small modulate nuclear

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Speaker 1: reactors as a way of changing the conversation to be

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Speaker 1: about what he wanted if it is childcare. In this

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Speaker 1: budget and we see Jim Chalmers positioning the government as

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Speaker 1: restrained and responsible but listening again, where does Peter Dutton go?

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Speaker 2: I think that what Peter Dutton will do in his

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Speaker 2: budget and reply and the Prime Minister has tried to say, oh,

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Speaker 2: this should be an election manifesto. There are even members

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Speaker 2: of Dutton's own Liberal Party who are quietly saying oh yes,

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Speaker 2: not so quietly saying yes, he should put out a

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Speaker 2: bigger agenda here.

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Speaker 4: I don't think he will.

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Speaker 2: For the first point, a budget and reply speech is

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Speaker 2: not the place to put out an election at manifesto.

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Speaker 2: It occurs late on a Thursday evening, it occurs at

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Speaker 2: the end of the parliamentary sitting, it doesn't get live coverage,

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Speaker 2: and by that time it is purely a reaction to

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Speaker 2: the budget. So you're already on the back foot reacting

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Speaker 2: to the government's budget. So I think what Peter Dutton

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Speaker 2: will do well, as he did with nuclear energy, He'll

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Speaker 2: concentrate on one particular issue, perhaps immigration, immigration and the

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Speaker 2: impact on the housing and crisis, and he'll still leave

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Speaker 2: all his big policy announcements for the campaign because so

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Speaker 2: far while he's been accused of being policy light, and

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Speaker 2: it is absolutely true, he hasn't produced enough policy. I

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Speaker 2: don't think the budget and reply speech late enough on

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Speaker 2: a Thursday night in Parliament is the place to release

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Speaker 2: your election agenda.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Dennis, I'll see you in the lockup.

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Speaker 4: See you there, Claire, You'll be next to me.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. Dennis Shadahan is The Australian's National editor. You

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Speaker 1: can read all Dennis's coverage and all our experts right

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Speaker 1: now at the Australian dot com. Dot a U. On

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Speaker 1: Tuesday night, we'll release a special episode of the Front

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Speaker 1: with all the budget bits you need to know and

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Speaker 1: none of the spin. Make sure you follow us right

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Speaker 1: here to make sure you're the first to know