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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Australia gets caught up in the crossfire between the US

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Speaker 1: and China. Interest rates are set to fall this afternoon,

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Speaker 1: though most homelan borrowers won't cut repayments, and archaeologists discover

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Speaker 1: an ancient Peruvian city, Plus suggestions that a UK subsidiary

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Speaker 1: of Origin Energy could demerge sparks the local company's share price.

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Speaker 1: And Donald Trump hits back at Elon Musk's plans for

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Speaker 1: a new political party. It's Tuesday, the eighth of July

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. I'm Adam Lang and good morning, Sean Almer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Adam. Something for everyone this morning. From Peruvian

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Speaker 2: cities to US, fights between best buddies and interest rates.

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Speaker 1: It's got it all jam packed.

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Speaker 2: A bit like the newsletter this morning, Adam.

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Speaker 1: It's a ripper now. The main story this morning, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Australia is getting caught up in the crossfire between the

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Speaker 1: world's two biggest economies, the US and China, with America

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Speaker 1: set to impose a ten percent tariff on ossie goods

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Speaker 1: just as Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi heads to Beijing.

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Speaker 2: The Trump administration started sending out tariff letters as they

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Speaker 2: put it to countries overnight, and Australia is likely to

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Speaker 2: be stuck with a ten percent impost on goods and

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Speaker 2: services sold into the US. Because Australia has not negotiated

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Speaker 2: a new tariff arrangement with Washington, we're likely to receive

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Speaker 2: our original tariff, which is the lowest rate of ten percent. That's,

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Speaker 2: of course, because Australia sells less to the US than

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Speaker 2: we buy from it. Countries are rushing to do deals

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Speaker 2: with the Trump administration. With the July nine deadline almost here.

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Speaker 2: Having said that, Donald Trump twenty four hours ago or

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Speaker 2: so said he was about to send letters out overnight.

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Speaker 2: The new tariff's are due to kick off on one August.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump said he'll also add that any country aligning

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Speaker 2: itself with the bricks Nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and

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Speaker 2: South Africa, we'll face an additional ten percent tariff, saying

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Speaker 2: there'll be no exceptions to that. Now, I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: what that actually means in in Australia, it's definitely a

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Speaker 2: ligned to China when it comes to iron ore, for example,

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Speaker 2: does that mean we're getting an extra ten percent. I

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Speaker 2: don't think so, just another one of those Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: things which probably we need to see the details before

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Speaker 2: we quite understand what it means.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I wonder how much detail is in that

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Speaker 1: Tara fletter, Sean, it's not exactly the kind of letter

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Speaker 1: you really want to receive.

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Speaker 2: No, probably not, but I mean actually, US Treasury Secretary

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Speaker 2: Scott Bessett also made the comment on the media on

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Speaker 2: one of the news shows in the US that yes,

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Speaker 2: while this is all being implemented, it's not really the

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Speaker 2: final decision.

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Speaker 1: So who knows what and this is all happening. As

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi heads to China this week, with

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Speaker 1: Beijing suggesting an expansion the free trade Agreement to include

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Speaker 1: artificial intelligence and the digital economy.

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Speaker 2: So Beijing's top diplomat in Australia, Jiao Chang, yesterday suggested

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Speaker 2: that deepening economic ties between the two countries could boost

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Speaker 2: our economy. Writing in the fin Review, he said relations

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Speaker 2: between Australia and China have stabilized and improved, achieving a

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Speaker 2: comprehensive turnaround, but now it's time to take the next step.

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Speaker 2: In some critical parts of the global economy, notably critical minerals,

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Speaker 2: electric vehicles, semiconductors, artificial intelligence. Countries like Australia have two

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Speaker 2: primary options. In fact, most countries only have two options.

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Speaker 2: Team up with the US or team up with China. Thus,

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Speaker 2: fire Australia has been very US focused, but the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration has given Canberra reason to think about that. The

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Speaker 2: Ambassador's comments come as Anthony Alberanezi is due to meet

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Speaker 2: President Jijing Ping during his week long trip to China,

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Speaker 2: which has a very heavy trade and investment focus. In fact,

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Speaker 2: the number of business leaders people like mcquarie's Shamara Wick,

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Speaker 2: Ramana Yaka for Deescu's Andrew Forrest and Bluescopes Mark Vasella

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Speaker 2: joining the Prime Minister on that trip. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader

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Speaker 2: Susan Lee said Australia should be wary of expanding any

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Speaker 2: free trade deal with China to include AI and the

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Speaker 2: digital economy. She also said that the Liberal Party needs

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Speaker 2: to change course on its messaging and policies for Australian

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Speaker 2: Chinese communities. That's a bit of an aside. The main

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Speaker 2: point here really is whether or not the free trade

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Speaker 2: agreement between China and Australia should expand to include things

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Speaker 2: like critical minerals and the Digital Economy SEAN.

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Speaker 1: Alongside this, interest rates are on the way down, including

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Speaker 1: a probable cut at two thirty pm today, but homelan

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Speaker 1: borrowers are mostly opting to keep repayment levels unchanged, effectively

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Speaker 1: paying more than the minimum requirement off their mortgages.

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Speaker 2: Which of course means that you repay your loan sooner.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a very good investment strategy. According to

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Speaker 2: the big banks, only ten percent of borrowers lowered their

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Speaker 2: home loan repayment after the May rate cut, which was

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Speaker 2: in line with what happened after the February rate cut.

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Speaker 2: A zed Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank ask customers

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Speaker 2: to opt into lower payments after rate cuts. According to

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Speaker 2: the fin Review, Westpac, in contrast, automatically reduces the home

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Speaker 2: loan repayments, so if you don't opt in to cut

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Speaker 2: your home loan repayments, you just keep paying that amount.

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Speaker 2: And what's commonoff bank estimates is with a five hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars mortgage, you'll be saving about one hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty dollars a month from the two rate cuts this year.

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Speaker 2: If you bank three rate cuts, this year over thirty years,

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Speaker 2: you're saving yourself close to two hundred thousand dollars, so,

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Speaker 2: as I said, very good investment strategy. Financial markets and

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Speaker 2: economists agree there is very likely to be a rate

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Speaker 2: cut this afternoon, followed by two or three later in

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Speaker 2: the year.

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Speaker 1: Sean between the US tariffs, China and US trade and

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Speaker 1: how to save money off your mortgage. This has definitely

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Speaker 1: been business news you can use. Will be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 1: Victorian Premier Jacina Allen says her government is preparing to

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Speaker 1: introduce legislation to ban face coverings, attachment devices and terror

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Speaker 1: symbols of protests, and this is following a spate of

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Speaker 1: antisemitic attacks.

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Speaker 2: Allan visited the East Melbourne Synagogue yesterday after it was

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Speaker 2: allegedly fire bombed on Friday. She pledged mental health support

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Speaker 2: for the congregants and said her government is establishing an

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Speaker 2: anti hate task Force. The task force will discuss how

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Speaker 2: the government can give police further powers to crack down

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Speaker 2: on extremist behavior at rallies.

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Speaker 1: Sean moving on to Origin Energy. It's share price jumped

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Speaker 1: six and a half percent after reports over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: The UK startup Octopus Energy, of which Origin has a

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Speaker 1: twenty three percent stake in it. It's planning to demerge

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Speaker 1: its technology arm.

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Speaker 2: The technology arm called Kraken KRK and that is a

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Speaker 2: cracking name for well, for anything, especially teak armmus It's ominous.

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Speaker 2: It's a standalone entity. It could be valuated up to

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Speaker 2: fifteen billion dollars according to UK media reports. That would

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Speaker 2: value Origin stake at about three and a half billion OSIM.

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Speaker 2: Octopus is Britain's largest energy retailer now. Craken, which is

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Speaker 2: part of Octopus, is an aipowered operating system which is

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Speaker 2: licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecom supplies.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I love that Octopus and Cracking together. What a

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Speaker 1: great set of names.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to another name, Sean Star Entertainment. It has

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Speaker 1: postponed any final decision on the sale of its stake

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Speaker 1: in Brisbane's new Queen's Warf casino and hotel complex. And

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Speaker 1: this isn't the postponement as until the end of the month.

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Speaker 1: But if the deal doesn't go ahead then Star will

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Speaker 1: have to pay thirty seven million dollars.

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Speaker 2: Chow Tai Fook Enterprises and Far East Consortium, which each

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Speaker 2: only twenty five percent of the Brisbane precinct, planned to

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Speaker 2: buy Star's Steak Now. Last week they threatened to walk

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Speaker 2: away from the deal, which was struck a few months

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Speaker 2: back when the gaming group was desperate for cash. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Star said the investors had agreed to postpone a final

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Speaker 2: call on the deal until the end of the month.

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Speaker 2: Starr also told us that if a deal isn't reached,

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Speaker 2: it will be up to thirty six point five million

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Speaker 2: dollars in September, so obviously they want to reach a

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Speaker 2: deal on that one.

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Speaker 1: Fairly good incentive to do a deal. Gold stocks were

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Speaker 1: the big winners in the twenty twenty five financial year Shawn,

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Speaker 1: but the precarious nature of their success was demonstrated yesterday

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Speaker 1: when market leader Northern Star said output would be at

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Speaker 1: the lower end of its forecast range, and that sent

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Speaker 1: its share price down more than nine percent.

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Speaker 2: In fact, it was the worst performing stocks on the

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Speaker 2: ASEX two hundred. North Northern Star also outlined plans to

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Speaker 2: burst capital expenditure to increase output, not news that investors liked. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Beaview Bellevue Gold, another gold company, reported strong production rates,

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Speaker 2: its share price jump two percent. Reach Resources, yet another

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Speaker 2: gold digger produced gold at the top end of its

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Speaker 2: guidance range. They were share price finished two percent. Very

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Speaker 2: figgle industry gold at the moment, Adam.

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Speaker 1: A fair amount of movement Sean. But overall, how did

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Speaker 1: the local markets perform us today? Well?

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Speaker 2: The SMPA six two hundred finished down a touch zero

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Speaker 2: point two percent in fact, to eight thousand, five hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty nine points. Utilities did best on a relatively

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Speaker 2: quiet day, while material stocks were worst. Among the large caps.

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Speaker 2: All the big banks for Lower West Farmers fell two percent.

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Speaker 2: Woodside and transurb And were both off one percent. SSL

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Speaker 2: was the best performer of the large caps, at least,

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Speaker 2: up more than two percent Sean.

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Speaker 1: In other corporate news, lifestyle communities entered a trading halt

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Speaker 1: ahead of an announcement in connection with proceedings currently before

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Speaker 1: the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal. The tribunal in the

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Speaker 1: afternoon found that the group had been charging residents significant

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Speaker 1: exit fees without properly disclosing them and they must be scrapped.

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Speaker 2: Now, Adam, I know you have an elderly parent parent

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Speaker 2: and these sorts of things with groups like lifestyle communities

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Speaker 2: that impact a lot of people, and a lot of

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Speaker 2: families get very upset about it. So be interesting to see.

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Speaker 1: It's really emotional.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it'd be interesting to see what their share price. See, Adam,

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Speaker 2: there is I'm worried about the share price. You're much

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Speaker 2: nicer than me. You're actually you're actually interested in the

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Speaker 2: emotional impact of it.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think they're linked, you know, one to the other.

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Speaker 1: All those customers who worry may be worried about the company.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the share price going down, and I own shares.

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Speaker 2: I'm worried.

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Speaker 1: Too.

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Speaker 2: Worries not one anyway, moving on lessa my mum might

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Speaker 2: be listening. I don't really want to hear that. But

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Speaker 2: what else is going on in the market. Yesterday, points Bet,

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Speaker 2: which has operations in both Australia and Canada, said that

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Speaker 2: the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario has approved the

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Speaker 2: bookmakers takeover by Japanese gaming giant Mixy and South thirty two.

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Speaker 2: The diversified minor it rose after announcing it had entered

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Speaker 2: into an agreement to sell its Colombian nickel mine Siero

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Speaker 2: Mitoso to global industrial conglomerate Correx for one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty three million dollars.

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Speaker 1: Sean on global markets. Fuel prices are set to fall

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Speaker 1: after OPEC plus accelerated plans to lift output, and that

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Speaker 1: triggered fears of an oversupply coming.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so it depends on how you look at this

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Speaker 2: As an oil supplier. You might not like the idea

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Speaker 2: of a glut coming. As a user, thinking when they

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Speaker 2: put spectrol into the car, I think it's somewhat more

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Speaker 2: attractive at them somehow.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree I'm feeling that short, Yeah, it.

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Speaker 2: Should put downward pressure on prices. Over the weekend, OPEC

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Speaker 2: plus spent a whole ten minutes on a video core

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Speaker 2: agreeing to up output. Now, part of that is pressure

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Speaker 2: from Donald Trump, who's calling for lower fuel costs. They

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Speaker 2: agreed to put it up. In the short term, analysts

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Speaker 2: say the market's tight, so probably the increase can be

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Speaker 2: absorbed without hitting prices much. But the northern winter's coming.

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Speaker 2: The southern winter, sorry, the southern winter, the northern summer.

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Speaker 2: I got that flip round the wrong way. The northern

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Speaker 2: summer is crazy because a bunch of Americans jump in cars,

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Speaker 2: fill them up, drive around, have holidays. So in the

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Speaker 2: northern winter, they're not doing that, so you actually see

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Speaker 2: demand drop. And the point is, if you've got this

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Speaker 2: big increase in supply plus the northern winter therefore lower demand,

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Speaker 2: you couldn't end up with the sharp fallum prices.

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Speaker 1: Sean between a drop in fuel prices coming and an

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Speaker 1: interest rate drop. This could be our best news episode

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Speaker 1: and newsletter ever.

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Speaker 2: Well, it could. And if you listen to Stephen Coculus

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Speaker 2: in the Weakerhead yesterday, he kind of said something along

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Speaker 2: the same lines. He was talking about the fact that

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Speaker 2: the economy for twenty twenty six is kind of looking

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Speaker 2: pretty good. He didn't mention petrol prices, but you can

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Speaker 2: throw that in. Certainly we've got lower interest rates coming,

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Speaker 2: and the economy's sort of picking up. I mean, it

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Speaker 2: hasn't been doing so well and certainly not in the

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Speaker 2: mass quarter, but it is definitely picking up.

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Speaker 1: That sounds like cautious optimism to me, shown.

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Speaker 2: The dismal scientists among the economists.

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Speaker 1: In international news. Donald Trump has lashed out at Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk after the billionaire unveiled plans to launch a new

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Speaker 1: US political party, where Trump called Musk a train wreck.

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Speaker 1: In an escalation of the feud between the US President

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Speaker 1: and his former buddy.

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Speaker 2: You know, I haven't been on the show for a

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Speaker 2: week or so because I had a bit of a break.

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Speaker 2: Yet I come back and kind of the story normal.

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Speaker 2: Musk has criticized Trump's flagship One Big Beautiful Bill, which

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Speaker 2: the President signed into law last week, accusing the administration

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Speaker 2: of bankrupting the country because the law is projected to

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Speaker 2: add more than three trillion US dollars to the US

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Speaker 2: debt over the next decade. Now I have the weekend,

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Speaker 2: Musk announced he would form a new party called America Party.

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Speaker 2: Not a lot of details on it, so but take

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Speaker 2: him out his word. Trump hit back, writing on his

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Speaker 2: Truth social platform that he was and I quote Sadden

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Speaker 2: to watch Elon Musk go completely off the rails, essentially

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Speaker 2: becoming a train wreck over the past five weeks. End

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Speaker 2: quote end of story.

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Speaker 1: Let's alright, Shawn. And finally, archaeologists have announced the discovery

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Speaker 1: of an ancient city in Peru's northern Barhanka province.

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Speaker 2: The thirty five hundred year old city named Pernico, is

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Speaker 2: believed to have served as a key trading hub connecting

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Speaker 2: early Pacific Coast communities with those living in the Andes

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Speaker 2: Mountains and Amazon Basin. Located some two hundred kilometers north

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Speaker 2: of Lima, the site lies about six hundred meters above

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Speaker 2: sea level. It's thought to have been founded between eighteen

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen hundred BC, around the same time that

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Speaker 2: early civilizations were flourishing in the Middle Eastern Asia. According

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Speaker 2: to the BBC, researchers say that discovery sheds light on

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Speaker 2: what became of America's oldest civilization, the Corral Let's see Aral.

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Speaker 2: He was established about five thousand years ago. Eight years

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Speaker 2: of research at the site unearthed eighteen structures, including ceremonial

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Speaker 2: temples and residential complexes. Now, I know that we can't

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Speaker 2: say they've discovered a new city yesterday. It's not quite that.

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Speaker 2: But I still think the fact that, you know, they've

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Speaker 2: spent eight years excavating and realizing that this is a

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Speaker 2: whole new city is pretty phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: Especially for a business news podcast. Sewan three five hundred

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Speaker 1: year old market economy that's just been discovered. That's awesome.

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Speaker 1: That is awesome.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: It's romance in my world. Sure, it's the sad world

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Speaker 1: that you live in. Adam all right. Immediately after the show.

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Speaker 1: Stay listening for Sean's chat with Guy Callahan. He is

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Speaker 1: the CEO of Banjo Liones. Sean tell us about the interview.

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Speaker 2: A lovely fellow guy. We just sit there and talk

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Speaker 2: about the state of the small and medium sized business

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Speaker 2: sector as we go into a twenty twenty six financial year.

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Speaker 2: Is not great, is the bottom line, and we talk

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Speaker 2: about which sectors are doing better than others. But he

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Speaker 2: has some really practical advice about how to get yourself

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Speaker 2: ready for the next twelve months, just around finance and

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Speaker 2: around organizing yourself and what help is available and what's

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Speaker 2: not available, and particularly what's not available. There's not a

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Speaker 2: lot of government help at the moment, but there is

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Speaker 2: plenty of other places you can get help, So definitely

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Speaker 2: well worth a listen.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Sean, and you can read about that in

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Speaker 1: our daily newsletter. If you've not joined up already, go

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Speaker 1: to our website and sign on. That's up next in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearngreed dot com dot au. Thank you Sean, Thank

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Speaker 1: you Adam. It's Tuesday, the eighth of July twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast, Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook and have a great day.