1 00:00:03,930 --> 00:00:06,240 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,270 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Right now we're in profit season with a whole 3 00:00:09,270 --> 00:00:12,869 Sean Aylmer: stack of ASX listed companies reporting results this week and 4 00:00:12,900 --> 00:00:15,509 Sean Aylmer: next and beyond, in fact. It's always great to speak 5 00:00:15,509 --> 00:00:17,850 Sean Aylmer: to experts about stocks they're watching. Of course, this is 6 00:00:17,850 --> 00:00:20,790 Sean Aylmer: general information only and you should certainly seek professional advice 7 00:00:20,790 --> 00:00:24,540 Sean Aylmer: before making investment decisions. Josh Gilbert is a market analyst 8 00:00:24,540 --> 00:00:27,809 Sean Aylmer: at social investment network, eToro and a regular guest on this 9 00:00:27,809 --> 00:00:29,820 Sean Aylmer: podcast. Josh, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 10 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:31,110 Josh Gilbert: Thanks for having me back, Sean. 11 00:00:31,559 --> 00:00:34,229 Sean Aylmer: So how do you get across earning season? As a 12 00:00:34,229 --> 00:00:36,870 Sean Aylmer: reporter, I'm trying to cover all these stories and I'm 13 00:00:36,870 --> 00:00:41,220 Sean Aylmer: very much at the top line. What's the profit? What's 14 00:00:41,220 --> 00:00:44,339 Sean Aylmer: the share price done? What's dividends? How do you, as 15 00:00:44,340 --> 00:00:46,080 Sean Aylmer: someone who's actually got to spend money, how do you 16 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:47,159 Sean Aylmer: get across all this stuff? 17 00:00:48,030 --> 00:00:49,979 Josh Gilbert: Yeah, look, it is really difficult, especially when you get 18 00:00:49,979 --> 00:00:53,460 Josh Gilbert: a big bulk of companies reporting within the same week. 19 00:00:53,969 --> 00:00:56,100 Josh Gilbert: Unfortunately, companies don't tend to look after us in that 20 00:00:56,100 --> 00:00:57,900 Josh Gilbert: sense, whether it's US or Australian- 21 00:00:57,900 --> 00:00:57,901 Sean Aylmer: Nasty. 22 00:00:57,901 --> 00:01:00,780 Josh Gilbert: ... Reporting season, yeah, it all comes at once. But 23 00:01:00,780 --> 00:01:03,660 Josh Gilbert: I think really as an investor, the best way to 24 00:01:03,870 --> 00:01:05,520 Josh Gilbert: look at this is pick out the stocks that you 25 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,679 Josh Gilbert: either own or that you want to focus on. You're 26 00:01:07,679 --> 00:01:09,480 Josh Gilbert: never going to be able to get across all of 27 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,609 Josh Gilbert: these stocks. So pick the ones that you want to 28 00:01:11,609 --> 00:01:15,300 Josh Gilbert: focus on early, follow their previews, follow their results, and 29 00:01:15,300 --> 00:01:18,000 Josh Gilbert: that should help you throughout earning season as well. So 30 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,209 Josh Gilbert: find an economic calendar where you can keep up with 31 00:01:21,660 --> 00:01:22,410 Josh Gilbert: all of those names. 32 00:01:23,069 --> 00:01:25,769 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So taking that thread, what are the sorts of 33 00:01:25,770 --> 00:01:28,740 Sean Aylmer: areas that you are interested in this earning season? And 34 00:01:28,740 --> 00:01:30,900 Sean Aylmer: then I'm going to go and ask you about how 35 00:01:30,900 --> 00:01:32,880 Sean Aylmer: you think some of those stocks will perform. 36 00:01:33,270 --> 00:01:36,180 Josh Gilbert: Yeah, I think look, expectations are going to be high, 37 00:01:36,180 --> 00:01:39,660 Josh Gilbert: I think, really because we've got the ASX 200 sitting near 38 00:01:39,660 --> 00:01:43,590 Josh Gilbert: record levels. We've got the RBA finishing its hiking cycle, 39 00:01:43,590 --> 00:01:46,049 Josh Gilbert: so there's lots of good news there. We're getting closer 40 00:01:46,049 --> 00:01:48,930 Josh Gilbert: to those rate cuts, which is obviously giving investors plenty 41 00:01:48,930 --> 00:01:52,680 Josh Gilbert: of optimism around the local market. So I think we are 42 00:01:52,830 --> 00:01:54,360 Josh Gilbert: going to want to see some good numbers from these 43 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,059 Josh Gilbert: companies. Investors are going to want to see that to 44 00:01:57,150 --> 00:02:00,960 Josh Gilbert: ultimately be impressed, even though growth is set to be 45 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:04,769 Josh Gilbert: pretty timid. I think miners, the material sectors, that's probably 46 00:02:04,770 --> 00:02:06,720 Josh Gilbert: going to be really one that stands out to me 47 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,480 Josh Gilbert: given what we're seeing in China. We've got a real 48 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,270 Josh Gilbert: estate sector that had a really great end to 2023. 49 00:02:13,169 --> 00:02:16,290 Josh Gilbert: A travel sector, Qantas under a lot of pressure at 50 00:02:16,290 --> 00:02:18,840 Josh Gilbert: the moment as well. Those are probably the three that 51 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,210 Josh Gilbert: sort of stand out to me, but I think it's 52 00:02:21,210 --> 00:02:23,250 Josh Gilbert: going to be a really interesting reporting season either way. 53 00:02:24,329 --> 00:02:26,790 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so let's look at the material sector and materials 54 00:02:26,850 --> 00:02:30,360 Sean Aylmer: covers many of the miners. There's a big three iron 55 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,719 Sean Aylmer: ore miners, so BHP at Rio and Fortescue. But beyond 56 00:02:33,719 --> 00:02:39,000 Sean Aylmer: that, there's literally hundreds of companies. Let's take lithium first 57 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,190 Sean Aylmer: up. Where do you think all those lithium stocks are 58 00:02:41,190 --> 00:02:45,389 Sean Aylmer: going? They're shorted totally on the market. What's the outlook 59 00:02:45,389 --> 00:02:45,810 Sean Aylmer: for them? 60 00:02:46,650 --> 00:02:48,690 Josh Gilbert: Yeah, look, I mean it's been a really, really tough 61 00:02:48,690 --> 00:02:52,200 Josh Gilbert: time for lithium miners. We're seeing lithium prices continue to 62 00:02:52,650 --> 00:02:56,790 Josh Gilbert: free fall to even start this year. That's coming from 63 00:02:56,790 --> 00:03:00,810 Josh Gilbert: this idea that we're seeing EV demand full or weaken 64 00:03:00,810 --> 00:03:04,230 Josh Gilbert: ultimately. Tesla share prices obviously had a hit in that 65 00:03:04,230 --> 00:03:07,530 Josh Gilbert: sort of same period as well. And I think the 66 00:03:07,530 --> 00:03:10,470 Josh Gilbert: big theme of this reporting season is how these companies 67 00:03:10,889 --> 00:03:14,820 Josh Gilbert: are going to be able to deal with, ultimately, the lithium winter really. 68 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,699 Josh Gilbert: We're probably going to see plenty of cost- cutting through 69 00:03:17,699 --> 00:03:23,370 Josh Gilbert: jobs, pausing projects, exploration being put on hold, dividend cuts 70 00:03:23,370 --> 00:03:27,030 Josh Gilbert: potentially if those lithium miners are paying dividends. And I 71 00:03:27,030 --> 00:03:29,160 Josh Gilbert: think really investors are going to want to see what 72 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,429 Josh Gilbert: those businesses are doing to get through that challenging period 73 00:03:32,429 --> 00:03:34,229 Josh Gilbert: because that's going to be really important. How are we 74 00:03:34,230 --> 00:03:36,299 Josh Gilbert: going to get to the next stage? I think a 75 00:03:36,299 --> 00:03:38,580 Josh Gilbert: lot of investors understand that it is a tough time, 76 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,130 Josh Gilbert: so we're not going to see the record results that 77 00:03:41,130 --> 00:03:43,800 Josh Gilbert: we have done in the past, but who can navigate 78 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,540 Josh Gilbert: this period the best are the ones that are going 79 00:03:45,540 --> 00:03:47,160 Josh Gilbert: to be coming out on top, and then I think 80 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:48,150 Josh Gilbert: investors will stick to. 81 00:03:48,990 --> 00:03:52,739 Sean Aylmer: Okay. What about the big three miners, and particularly Rio 82 00:03:52,740 --> 00:03:57,270 Sean Aylmer: and Fortescue, very, very reliant on iron ore prices. How 83 00:03:57,270 --> 00:03:58,920 Sean Aylmer: do you think they'll go this reporting season? 84 00:03:59,700 --> 00:04:02,429 Josh Gilbert: Yeah, well this is again a tricky one I think 85 00:04:02,429 --> 00:04:05,639 Josh Gilbert: for investors to focus on because we've got an economy 86 00:04:05,639 --> 00:04:08,969 Josh Gilbert: in China that is continuing to struggle. Last week we 87 00:04:08,969 --> 00:04:12,540 Josh Gilbert: saw four months of falling prices in the region. So 88 00:04:12,540 --> 00:04:16,950 Josh Gilbert: deflation is essentially becoming entrenched into the economy. And what 89 00:04:16,950 --> 00:04:20,639 Josh Gilbert: we've seen so far from China is that policymakers are 90 00:04:20,639 --> 00:04:24,359 Josh Gilbert: overpromising, they're underdelivering, and I think we're going to need 91 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,318 Josh Gilbert: to see more support there to lift demand, and ultimately that's 92 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,779 Josh Gilbert: having a big impact on the real estate market, which 93 00:04:30,930 --> 00:04:33,839 Josh Gilbert: of course has a huge impact locally. So iron ore 94 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,770 Josh Gilbert: prices have actually remained pretty resilient given all of this, 95 00:04:37,980 --> 00:04:40,678 Josh Gilbert: which has actually given a bit of a boost to 96 00:04:40,678 --> 00:04:43,409 Josh Gilbert: miners over the last few months as well. So I 97 00:04:43,410 --> 00:04:46,650 Josh Gilbert: guess the focus for me going into these results is 98 00:04:46,650 --> 00:04:48,299 Josh Gilbert: going to be the outlook. That's going to be really 99 00:04:48,330 --> 00:04:51,719 Josh Gilbert: important. What's the next six months going to look like? 100 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,170 Josh Gilbert: We've had iron ore prices remaining resilient. Will they remain 101 00:04:55,170 --> 00:04:57,389 Josh Gilbert: resilient though moving into the next six months of the 102 00:04:57,389 --> 00:05:00,509 Josh Gilbert: year if we don't see a turnaround in China's economy? 103 00:05:00,509 --> 00:05:03,479 Josh Gilbert: So that's going to be really important, but I think 104 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:05,609 Josh Gilbert: the good news is that support is on the way 105 00:05:05,609 --> 00:05:07,650 Josh Gilbert: for China. I think that's probably what we can take 106 00:05:07,650 --> 00:05:10,320 Josh Gilbert: away. The bad news that we've had in the last 107 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,599 Josh Gilbert: couple of weeks is probably good news in the sense 108 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:13,980 Josh Gilbert: that it means they've got to act. 109 00:05:14,639 --> 00:05:16,409 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Josh, we'll be back in a minute. 110 00:05:22,529 --> 00:05:27,210 Sean Aylmer: I'm speaking to Josh Gilbert from eToro. You mentioned REITs 111 00:05:27,300 --> 00:05:30,360 Sean Aylmer: earlier on. The real estate investment trust that covers a 112 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,960 Sean Aylmer: whole manner of sins really from big commercial office buildings 113 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,710 Sean Aylmer: through to the local medical center. What part of that 114 00:05:37,710 --> 00:05:39,928 Sean Aylmer: are you looking at? What do you think could do 115 00:05:39,928 --> 00:05:42,990 Sean Aylmer: well and perhaps what part of REITs won't do so well? 116 00:05:43,830 --> 00:05:46,440 Josh Gilbert: Yeah, well look, real estate was the best performing sector 117 00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:51,240 Josh Gilbert: on the ASX 200 in the last quarter of 2023. That's pushed 118 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,629 Josh Gilbert: valuations higher, and it's ultimately meant that expectations are going 119 00:05:54,630 --> 00:05:57,330 Josh Gilbert: to be even higher then, as you head into reporting 120 00:05:57,330 --> 00:06:00,209 Josh Gilbert: season. But it's coming from this view that rate cuts 121 00:06:00,209 --> 00:06:04,110 Josh Gilbert: are on the horizon. These sort of REITs and these companies were 122 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:07,589 Josh Gilbert: out favor in the last couple of years as we've 123 00:06:07,950 --> 00:06:09,928 Josh Gilbert: had (inaudible) high interest rates, but they're getting a 124 00:06:09,928 --> 00:06:13,320 Josh Gilbert: little bit more love now given that rate cuts are 125 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:17,520 Josh Gilbert: coming to view. I think the risks maybe lie within 126 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,000 Josh Gilbert: the retail and office side of the real estate sector. 127 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:23,279 Josh Gilbert: I think that may be a bit of a weight 128 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,890 Josh Gilbert: on the sector, but I think we'll get some positivity 129 00:06:25,890 --> 00:06:28,529 Josh Gilbert: from the industrial side of things. If we look at 130 00:06:28,529 --> 00:06:31,589 Josh Gilbert: somebody like Goodman Group for example, they've had an excellent 131 00:06:31,589 --> 00:06:35,129 Josh Gilbert: run even during this period. They're working very heavily on 132 00:06:35,129 --> 00:06:38,040 Josh Gilbert: the industrial side with the likes of data centers, which 133 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,670 Josh Gilbert: essentially is what's driving AI. That's everything behind AI. So 134 00:06:41,670 --> 00:06:44,039 Josh Gilbert: they're having a fantastic time at the moment. So it's 135 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:47,250 Josh Gilbert: no surprise to probably see some demand there being really 136 00:06:47,250 --> 00:06:50,909 Josh Gilbert: high. So I think anything around industrial is where we're 137 00:06:50,910 --> 00:06:53,609 Josh Gilbert: going to find the bright spots. Retail and office is 138 00:06:53,609 --> 00:06:55,469 Josh Gilbert: where we might see a little bit of weakness, but 139 00:06:55,589 --> 00:06:58,380 Josh Gilbert: I think that gives you, sometimes, a little bit of 140 00:06:58,380 --> 00:07:01,830 Josh Gilbert: room for upside when there's not really much expected from 141 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,139 Josh Gilbert: retail and office, but there is going to be big 142 00:07:04,139 --> 00:07:05,760 Josh Gilbert: expectations on the industrial side. 143 00:07:06,389 --> 00:07:08,670 Sean Aylmer: Josh say something there, which is just worth pointing out. 144 00:07:08,700 --> 00:07:11,189 Sean Aylmer: If you want to play AI, it's not just about going 145 00:07:11,190 --> 00:07:13,290 Sean Aylmer: and investing in the big AI companies. You can play 146 00:07:13,290 --> 00:07:16,739 Sean Aylmer: AI by getting the service providers around them and say 147 00:07:16,740 --> 00:07:19,410 Sean Aylmer: Goodman being an example of that. They provide data centers. 148 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,859 Sean Aylmer: There are lots of opportunities with these megatrends, be it 149 00:07:23,250 --> 00:07:25,920 Sean Aylmer: environment, be it AI, where you don't actually have to 150 00:07:26,130 --> 00:07:29,280 Sean Aylmer: invest directly into those companies. That's right, isn't it? 151 00:07:29,820 --> 00:07:32,580 Josh Gilbert: Absolutely. Yeah. So I mean, look, obviously the main name when 152 00:07:32,580 --> 00:07:36,960 Josh Gilbert: we think of probably when it's come to AI on 153 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,599 Josh Gilbert: Wall Street, on markets over the last 12 months is 154 00:07:39,599 --> 00:07:42,750 Josh Gilbert: NVIDIA. That's the name leading the charge here. There are 155 00:07:42,750 --> 00:07:45,420 Josh Gilbert: plenty of other businesses that are really benefiting in the 156 00:07:45,420 --> 00:07:47,880 Josh Gilbert: background, and Goodman Group is one of those that has 157 00:07:48,539 --> 00:07:52,350 Josh Gilbert: continued to benefit from that as well. So it's ultimately 158 00:07:52,350 --> 00:07:57,150 Josh Gilbert: the picks and the shovels of this trend that are 159 00:07:57,150 --> 00:07:59,219 Josh Gilbert: going to continue to do well in the background as 160 00:07:59,219 --> 00:08:02,730 Josh Gilbert: well. So it's not necessarily about finding that name such 161 00:08:02,730 --> 00:08:05,580 Josh Gilbert: as NVIDIA. It has had a huge run. If you 162 00:08:05,580 --> 00:08:07,800 Josh Gilbert: haven't gone onto that early enough, then that's no problem. 163 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:09,720 Josh Gilbert: There are going to be plenty of other names that 164 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,470 Josh Gilbert: continue to benefit from what is a real technological advancement. 165 00:08:14,309 --> 00:08:16,110 Sean Aylmer: I also want to ask about travel. Qantas being the 166 00:08:16,110 --> 00:08:17,880 Sean Aylmer: big one there, but there's plenty of others, flights and 167 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,269 Sean Aylmer: corporate travel management, et cetera. What's the outlook for those guys? 168 00:08:22,709 --> 00:08:24,240 Josh Gilbert: We were coming off a bit of a weird time 169 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,640 Josh Gilbert: for travel I think. We had a record year for 170 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:30,240 Josh Gilbert: Qantas in 2023, huge profits. But also at the same 171 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:34,260 Josh Gilbert: time, you've then got these huge issues from customers. We 172 00:08:34,260 --> 00:08:37,769 Josh Gilbert: are now seeing investigations into price gouging. They've had issues 173 00:08:37,770 --> 00:08:40,889 Josh Gilbert: with unions. So it's a real mix. It's really difficult 174 00:08:40,889 --> 00:08:44,400 Josh Gilbert: to try and look at Qantas with just through one 175 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:46,590 Josh Gilbert: lens because there's really two sides of it. They're getting 176 00:08:46,590 --> 00:08:50,280 Josh Gilbert: a real bad time publicly in the press, but in 177 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,130 Josh Gilbert: the background, the business is actually doing pretty well. Sales 178 00:08:53,130 --> 00:08:55,830 Josh Gilbert: are still growing. They've got a strong balance sheet. They've 179 00:08:55,830 --> 00:08:58,920 Josh Gilbert: got a solid foothold in the domestic market, and they're 180 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,260 Josh Gilbert: continuing to see growth in the international business as well, 181 00:09:01,260 --> 00:09:04,348 Josh Gilbert: which is really important. That's where they make the bulk 182 00:09:04,350 --> 00:09:07,410 Josh Gilbert: of their revenue. The domestic market is where the margins 183 00:09:07,410 --> 00:09:10,890 Josh Gilbert: lie, but the international is where we see the sales 184 00:09:11,010 --> 00:09:14,670 Josh Gilbert: coming through. Then you take into everything else as well. 185 00:09:14,670 --> 00:09:17,489 Josh Gilbert: We've got Vanessa Hudson, who's just taken the helm as 186 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,400 Josh Gilbert: CEO. So she's going to have her work cut out 187 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,700 Josh Gilbert: to deal with all of those issues that I mentioned earlier. 188 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:25,920 Josh Gilbert: And the big task when you're coming in, when you've 189 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,369 Josh Gilbert: got profits at record highs, is shareholders expect that to 190 00:09:29,370 --> 00:09:33,360 Josh Gilbert: continue. You want to keep profits steady. You want to 191 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,348 Josh Gilbert: try and win back some of that positive publicity as 192 00:09:37,380 --> 00:09:40,230 Josh Gilbert: well. So I think that's going to be really important for her to 193 00:09:40,410 --> 00:09:42,570 Josh Gilbert: try and get through. But I think as you said 194 00:09:42,570 --> 00:09:44,880 Josh Gilbert: more broadly in that travel sector, we want to see 195 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,790 Josh Gilbert: how demand is holding up. This boom that we had 196 00:09:47,790 --> 00:09:51,270 Josh Gilbert: post pandemic with everyone wanting to travel, was this trend. 197 00:09:51,660 --> 00:09:54,630 Josh Gilbert: But ultimately, the cost of living is having a huge 198 00:09:54,630 --> 00:09:57,390 Josh Gilbert: weight on consumers. So we need to see how that's 199 00:09:57,390 --> 00:09:59,970 Josh Gilbert: ultimately affecting demand. Are people really going to be still 200 00:09:59,970 --> 00:10:03,270 Josh Gilbert: spending thousands of dollars on holiday when they're struggling to 201 00:10:03,270 --> 00:10:05,910 Josh Gilbert: maybe buy food at the supermarket or pay their energy 202 00:10:05,910 --> 00:10:08,549 Josh Gilbert: bill? So that's, I think, going to be a big takeaway for 203 00:10:08,549 --> 00:10:09,360 Josh Gilbert: the travel names. 204 00:10:10,049 --> 00:10:12,208 Sean Aylmer: Just quickly on retail, we had a few last week 205 00:10:12,208 --> 00:10:14,190 Sean Aylmer: where we had a Myer upgrade. We had Cettire, the 206 00:10:14,190 --> 00:10:17,460 Sean Aylmer: luxury goods provider perform pretty well. Nick Scali came out 207 00:10:17,460 --> 00:10:21,360 Sean Aylmer: and surprised investors. Expectations aren't that high for the retailers 208 00:10:22,050 --> 00:10:24,360 Sean Aylmer: relative to some of the other sectors, but thus far 209 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:25,650 Sean Aylmer: it's not a bad start for them. 210 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,640 Josh Gilbert: Yeah, I mean, look, again, probably quite surprising to see 211 00:10:30,059 --> 00:10:33,420 Josh Gilbert: such positivity from those names. And I think maybe as 212 00:10:33,420 --> 00:10:35,910 Josh Gilbert: you say, given that we've not expected much, there's probably 213 00:10:35,910 --> 00:10:38,070 Josh Gilbert: maybe a bit of room for the upside there, given 214 00:10:38,070 --> 00:10:42,179 Josh Gilbert: that the expectations are so low. I think that the focus here 215 00:10:42,179 --> 00:10:45,899 Josh Gilbert: is that we have seen a slowdown in retail sales 216 00:10:46,500 --> 00:10:49,860 Josh Gilbert: in December. It was actually a real dire slowdown, a 217 00:10:49,860 --> 00:10:52,920 Josh Gilbert: pretty torrid report that we got in December. But November 218 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,490 Josh Gilbert: is when we saw that spending brought forward for Christmas, 219 00:10:56,490 --> 00:10:59,218 Josh Gilbert: Black Friday sales, but then also on the other side 220 00:10:59,219 --> 00:11:01,559 Josh Gilbert: of that, you had consumer confidence, which has been super 221 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,469 Josh Gilbert: low. I mentioned there about interest rates. The cost of 222 00:11:04,469 --> 00:11:08,970 Josh Gilbert: living. Retailers have though, remained pretty resilient. I think not 223 00:11:08,970 --> 00:11:11,520 Josh Gilbert: many people would've expected to see this sort of resilience 224 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:15,270 Josh Gilbert: that we've had from retailers. So I'd expect to see 225 00:11:16,139 --> 00:11:19,078 Josh Gilbert: some commentary around strong numbers in November. But as I 226 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:23,399 Josh Gilbert: mentioned that that December slowdown in retail sales is going 227 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,828 Josh Gilbert: to really hurt them, I think. So I think if 228 00:11:25,830 --> 00:11:28,230 Josh Gilbert: that is followed by any comments that the start of 229 00:11:28,230 --> 00:11:30,809 Josh Gilbert: this year has been difficult, then that may be what 230 00:11:30,809 --> 00:11:34,588 Josh Gilbert: investors narrow in on. We saw that at this time 231 00:11:34,740 --> 00:11:38,250 Josh Gilbert: last year with retailers. They had a great end to 232 00:11:38,250 --> 00:11:40,979 Josh Gilbert: 2023, but they said that the first three months of 233 00:11:40,980 --> 00:11:42,809 Josh Gilbert: this year were going to be difficult, and that weighed 234 00:11:42,809 --> 00:11:45,150 Josh Gilbert: on share prices to begin with. So any sort of 235 00:11:45,150 --> 00:11:48,240 Josh Gilbert: weak guidance is really going to hurt them. And again, 236 00:11:48,540 --> 00:11:50,820 Josh Gilbert: if we saw a big slowdown in sales in December, 237 00:11:51,270 --> 00:11:53,910 Josh Gilbert: that's really going to be painful for those companies. So 238 00:11:54,059 --> 00:11:57,929 Josh Gilbert: resilient so far, but I'm struggling to see how resilient 239 00:11:57,929 --> 00:12:00,180 Josh Gilbert: these names can be this reporting season. 240 00:12:00,660 --> 00:12:02,400 Sean Aylmer: Josh, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 241 00:12:02,850 --> 00:12:03,540 Josh Gilbert: Thanks for having me, Sean. 242 00:12:04,020 --> 00:12:07,590 Sean Aylmer: That's Josh Gilbert, market analyst at social investment network eToro. 243 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,840 Sean Aylmer: This is the Fear and Greed daily interview. Remember, this 244 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,689 Sean Aylmer: is general information only, and you should always seek professional 245 00:12:12,690 --> 00:12:15,929 Sean Aylmer: advice before making investment decisions. Join us every morning for 246 00:12:15,929 --> 00:12:18,270 Sean Aylmer: the full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia's best business 247 00:12:18,270 --> 00:12:20,700 Sean Aylmer: podcast. I'm Sean Aylmer. Have a great day.