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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The local share market tumbles

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Speaker 1: on the back of Washington's decision to not allow exemptions

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Speaker 1: from tariffs for Australian aluminium and steel exports. The Corporate

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Speaker 1: watchdog pursues the country's biggest superannuation fund, and Warren Buffett

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Speaker 1: once again proves here's one of the greatest investors of

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Speaker 1: all time. Plus industrial disputes in Australia rise, and Ukraine

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Speaker 1: agrees to a cease fire, although Moscow is so far noncommittal.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the thirteenth

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Speaker 1: of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good

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Speaker 1: morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Massive show today Seawan the main story this morning. The

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Speaker 1: local share market was officially in correction Territory yesterday, having

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Speaker 1: fallen more than ten percent since its PEA class month

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Speaker 1: dragged lower over the last twenty four hours by confirmation

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Speaker 1: local aluminium and steel sold to the US will be

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Speaker 1: hit with twenty five percent tariffs are unsuccessful in getting

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Speaker 1: an exemption.

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Speaker 2: That's right, So yesterday it was the consumer discretionary stocks,

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Speaker 2: industrials and financials that were sold down big time. About

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Speaker 2: fifty billion dollars was wiped off the value of the

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Speaker 2: market by the close after a last ten minute rebound.

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Speaker 2: Really the market was down about nine percent or a

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Speaker 2: little over nine percent from its peak less than four

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Speaker 2: weeks ago. Ten percent is defined as a correction, so

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Speaker 2: briefly with in correction territory, but it's around that level

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Speaker 2: at the close. Over the last month. It's the tech

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Speaker 2: stocks and the big banks that have been hit hardest.

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Speaker 2: The Tech sub index is down twenty percent over the

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Speaker 2: past month. Financials are down about twelve percent. A bunch

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Speaker 2: of companies from across the bores are now trading around

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Speaker 2: twelve month lows, even some who aren't really caught up

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Speaker 2: in the global trade wars that are going on. So

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Speaker 2: CSL four to squ Metals, Woolies, Data Center Group next

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Speaker 2: to see Treasury Wine Estates and Group which owns the

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Speaker 2: pubs and clubs in Liquor Outlets, Challenge of the Innuities Company,

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Speaker 2: Flight Center Travel and Hollow World Travel Groups Dominos all

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Speaker 2: trading around twelve month lows. In fact, nearly twenty percent

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Speaker 2: of the top two hundred have recorded a new twelvemonth

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Speaker 2: low this week. That is quite incredible. What is really

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Speaker 2: noteworthy at the moment is that most companies are being

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Speaker 2: sold off. We're not just seeing I mean, tech sector

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Speaker 2: has been sold off most, but it's broad based. All

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Speaker 2: sorts of companies are being sold down.

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Speaker 1: It's been going on for a little while now, for

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Speaker 1: what about a month or so. What are the main

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Speaker 1: reasons behind the sher market tumblant. We did kind of

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Speaker 1: talk about this on various occasions, like about the fact

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Speaker 1: that the banks had been priced to perfection for some

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Speaker 1: time and it wasn't going to take much really for

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Speaker 1: something to send them down. What's been combining to make

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Speaker 1: this happen over the last month, So.

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Speaker 2: They're about four or five main reasons you just mentioned

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Speaker 2: won the price to perfection. Equity evaluations are stretched. They

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Speaker 2: just got too expensive. In fact, if you put a

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Speaker 2: trend line over the past decade, the ASEX is still

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Speaker 2: overvalued by about five percent s and P five hundred

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Speaker 2: is still overvalued by about ten percent. Tech stocks, particularly

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Speaker 2: the Magnificent seven on Wall Street, they just ren I

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Speaker 2: was going to say, too hard, but they have run

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Speaker 2: so hard. They now account for about thirty five percent

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Speaker 2: of the S and P five hundred if they get

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Speaker 2: sold off. The S and P five hundred gets sold off,

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Speaker 2: that pushes through to the Australian market, so valuation stretch

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Speaker 2: tech stocks very expensive. Hopes of a bunch of rate

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Speaker 2: cuts in the US and Australia have been dashed by

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Speaker 2: sticking fation. That's the third reason. A fourth one overlaying

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Speaker 2: all of this is the contradictory commentary out of the

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Speaker 2: White House which has created enormous uncertainty, and then, specifically

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Speaker 2: for Australia over the last twenty four hours, the news

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Speaker 2: aluminium and still exports won't be exempt from US tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Sell Offs in markets aren't abnormal. It's just part of

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Speaker 2: the market, especially when they get expensive over the time.

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Speaker 2: Though the economy grows, so do markets. But analysts are

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Speaker 2: now saying with this selloff, don't expect it to end

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Speaker 2: anytime soon. We could be in for a tough period.

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Speaker 1: You just mentioned the tariffs and that's worth a bit

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Speaker 1: of discussion on its own, because Australia won't be receiving

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Speaker 1: an exemption from tariffs on exports of steel and aluminium

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Speaker 1: to the US. With a billion dollars in annual sales

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Speaker 1: now attracting a twenty five percent impost. There was a

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Speaker 1: lot of hope that there would be an exemption and

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Speaker 1: it just didn't happen.

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Speaker 2: That's right, the White House informed Canbery yesterday. When pressed

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Speaker 2: by Australian media at the White House, a spokesperson said,

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Speaker 2: I quote American first Steel and if they want to

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Speaker 2: be exempted, they should consider moving steel manufacturing here end

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Speaker 2: quote promised and how an easy. He said the tariffs

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Speaker 2: were entirely unjustified. He said they're against the spirit of

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Speaker 2: the two nations and enduring friendship. He said tariffs and

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Speaker 2: trade tensions are a form of economic self harm and

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Speaker 2: a recipe for slower growth and higher inflation. The tariffs

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Speaker 2: were imposed despite phone calls between Trump and the Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister a little over a week ago. In a series

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Speaker 2: of meetings between Seeing your Government ministers and the US counterparts.

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Speaker 2: The opposition came out and said Albanesi hadn't done enough.

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Speaker 2: Albanesi came back and said, well, I tried to call

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Speaker 2: Trump again and he didn't pick up the phone. The

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister said Australia put a range of propositions to

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Speaker 2: the US government. They were rejected. He said the cost

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Speaker 2: of the tariffs will be paid for by US consumers,

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Speaker 2: not Australians.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Business leaders yesterday pointed out that the carve out negotiated

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Speaker 2: by the Turnbull government from tariff's under Trump one point

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Speaker 2: zero administration. They actually took about eight months to negotiate.

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Speaker 2: So the show ain't over yet and certainly, asn't we

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Speaker 2: know with Donald Trump, nothing's ever over.

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Speaker 1: That comment from the spokesperson for the White House isn't

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Speaker 1: interesting one, isn't that American first deal. If they want

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Speaker 1: an exemption, they should move steel manufacturing here. It's not feasible.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to happen, though it is happening in

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Speaker 1: some cases with say blue Scope, which has a facility there.

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Speaker 1: But on the whole, it's a comment that doesn't really help,

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Speaker 1: does it.

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Speaker 2: It just doesn't make sense. Yeah, I mean Bluescope Funnily enough,

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Speaker 2: an Australian listed company, will do really well out of

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Speaker 2: this because they've got a massive manufacturing facility in Ohio.

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Speaker 2: They will probably benefit from it, and say shareholder and

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Speaker 2: Bluescope will probably benefit from this. But that was just

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Speaker 2: an ignorant comment from that person.

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Speaker 1: Yea extraordinary among the main arguments, and this has been

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Speaker 1: going on for a while, but among the main arguments

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Speaker 1: that Australia has used to argue for an exemption is

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Speaker 1: that we are one of the few countries with a

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Speaker 1: trade deficit to the US, meaning that we buy more

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Speaker 1: stuff from them than they sell to US.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and in a beautiful sense of timing, Australia's trade

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Speaker 2: deficit turned into a surplus last month for the first

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Speaker 2: time in about forty years. It was on the back

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Speaker 2: of a one off sale of gold to the US.

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Speaker 2: It'll be reversed out next month. But beautiful timing to

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Speaker 2: actually come out and say, well, we're just going into

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Speaker 2: a trade surplus with the US.

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Speaker 1: Oh you couldn't script that, could you. It's fantastic goodness

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Speaker 1: May okay, Sean. After the show, It's got plenty more

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Speaker 1: to come. But after the show, we have an interview

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Speaker 1: coming up, a bit of a change of pace, a

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Speaker 1: conversation with Chris Huls, the CEO of Life three sixty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great chat with Chris. Life three sixty

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Speaker 2: is one of those companies that have sort of reinvented

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Speaker 2: itself in the last couple of years after being sold

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Speaker 2: off and it's adding subscription levels and new products all

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Speaker 2: the time, and it's a really fascinating chat with Chris

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Speaker 2: about how that company's going. Osbi's, of course, is Australia's

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Speaker 2: leading provider of live and on demand video of the

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Speaker 2: latest news in Australian business market's, economy and startups. Sign

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Speaker 2: up for free at osbi's dot com dot Au.

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Speaker 1: The thing I loved about this conversation was just that

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Speaker 1: it kind of goes into this life three sixty business

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Speaker 1: model about how they are able to families, able to

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Speaker 1: track kind of family members, and the expansion into pets,

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Speaker 1: and the expansion into seniors, and why kind of Google

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Speaker 1: and Apple are really competitors.

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Speaker 2: Coworkers when it's time to record and where is he?

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Speaker 2: Where is he? Suddenly?

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Speaker 1: Just like three sixty in awe Ago. It's a fascinating

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Speaker 1: conversation and pretty lofty goals for the company. I won't

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Speaker 1: spoil anything because it's a great conversation, but check it

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Speaker 1: out as coming up later on Sean. We've got so

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Speaker 1: much more still to come. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean

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Speaker 1: the Corporate Watchdog is alleging that the country's biggest super fund,

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Speaker 1: Ossie Super failed to pay out millions of dollars in

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Speaker 1: claims to families of deceased members in a timely manner.

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Speaker 2: The Australian Securities and Investments Commission says the fund failed

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Speaker 2: to process almost seven thousand death benefit claims efficiently, honestly

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Speaker 2: and fairly between July twenty nineteen and October last year.

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Speaker 2: In one case, it took Australian super more than three

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Speaker 2: years to pay a claim to a relative of a

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Speaker 2: deceased member. Now it's the second case is launched against

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Speaker 2: a big super fund in the past year, after taking

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Speaker 2: Seabuster court for allegedly similar customer service failures. Last month,

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Speaker 2: ASSE fined OSSI suba twenty seven million dollars for failing

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Speaker 2: to merge duplicate accounts as required by law. It's pretty

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Speaker 2: clear that the corporate watchdog is taking a very close

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Speaker 2: look at the big players in the four trillion dollar

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Speaker 2: super sector. It wants to make sure they're behaving and

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Speaker 2: that's fair enough.

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Speaker 1: The Federal government SEAN has lost its appeal in a

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Speaker 1: native title case that could expose it to a raft

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Speaker 1: of multimillion dollar compensation claims over land that had acquired

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Speaker 1: in the Northern Territory throughout the twentieth century.

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Speaker 2: The High Court upheld the decision of the Federal Court

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Speaker 2: from last year, clearing the way for the Gumaje people

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Speaker 2: of Arnham Land to seek compensation over a mining lease

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Speaker 2: granted over the Gove Peninsula in the nineteen sixties. The

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Speaker 2: Gove Peninsula is in the very northeast of the Northern Territory.

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Speaker 2: The March people are seeking about seven hundred million dollars

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Speaker 2: in the It was brought by the late indigenous elder

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Speaker 2: and land rights pioneer Unipingu in twenty nineteen. According to

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Speaker 2: a report in the City Morning Herald, the High Court's

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Speaker 2: decision to dismiss the Commonwealth's appeal allows the Goomage people

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Speaker 2: to progress their native title claim and, if successful, claim

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Speaker 2: compensation now beyond this claim. It's significant because it opens

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Speaker 2: the Commonwealth to further compensation claims from when it controlled

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Speaker 2: the Northern Territory that was from about nineteen eleven to

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy eight. Previously, before this decision, compensation has generally

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Speaker 2: been understood to apply for extinguishment of native title. After

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy five, when the Racial Discrimination Act was introduced.

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Speaker 2: This opens the way for a far greater time period.

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Speaker 1: The number of industrial disputes in Australia is on the rise,

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Speaker 1: with working days lost last quarter the most in more

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Speaker 1: than three years.

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Speaker 2: Until COVID, the number of industrial disputes were trending down,

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Speaker 2: but since then of disruptions has increased. Bureau of Statistics

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Speaker 2: figures released yesterday show fifty four thousand working days were

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Speaker 2: lost during the December quarter. That's the highest since June

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. What we're seeing more disputes, though each

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Speaker 2: individual incident involves fewer people. Having said that, compared to

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Speaker 2: the eighties, nineties and noughties, the level of industrial disputes

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Speaker 2: nowadays is actually pretty low.

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Speaker 1: There was a bit of corporate news around here, so

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Speaker 1: that just one story I wanted to ask you about,

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Speaker 1: and that was the fallout from X tropical Cyclone.

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Speaker 2: Alfred Yes and Insurance Australia groups that it received more

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Speaker 2: than four thousand claims relating to the X tropical cyclone.

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Speaker 2: It told investors it had to bring in more staff

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Speaker 2: to work through the claims. Now Insurance Australia Group by

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Speaker 2: ag Suncorp. They've all said that mostly they're covered. Their

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Speaker 2: reinsurance policies covers what they're going to have to pay out,

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Speaker 2: so it shouldn't be a huge financial impost on them.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Now turning to international news, Ukraine has said it

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Speaker 1: is ready to accept a US proposal for an immediate

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Speaker 1: thirty day ceasefire in its war with Russia, prompting Washington

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Speaker 1: to agree to resume military assistance to Kiev.

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Speaker 2: The proposed ceasefire, which would still need to be agreed

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Speaker 2: to by Russia, was announced in a joint statement that

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Speaker 2: capped several hours of talks between US and Ukrainian officials

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Speaker 2: in Saudi Arabia. According to The Financial Times, Washington said

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Speaker 2: it will immediately restore deliveries of weapons and ammunition and

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Speaker 2: end its suspension of intelligence sharing, which Kiv feared would

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Speaker 2: seriously hamper its ability to detect and hit targets beyond

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Speaker 2: the battlefield. US President Donald Trump said he hoped Russia

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Speaker 2: would agree to the ceasefire, and that he planned to

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Speaker 2: speak to Vladimir Putin. The ceasefire, which could be extended

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Speaker 2: with the agreement of both parties, would go well beyond

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Speaker 2: the partial truth suggested by Ukraine's president Vladimir Selenski before

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Speaker 2: the meeting with US officials.

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Speaker 1: So what's Russia's response being to this? Now, presumably they

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Speaker 1: get seat at the table, right.

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Speaker 2: You don't presume anything anymore?

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Speaker 1: A good point.

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Speaker 2: The focus is very much on Vladimir Putin. The ball

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Speaker 2: is in his court. A senior government official yesterday was

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Speaker 2: quoted in the media is saying any ceasefire proposal would

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Speaker 2: be on Moscow's terms, not Washington's terms. So you could

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Speaker 2: imagine that Vladimir Putin isn't that fast that Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is dictating what a ceasefire might look like.

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Speaker 1: While we're talking about the US president, and we've talked

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Speaker 1: about the on again, off again nature of tariffs, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is back down from a threat to double tariffs

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Speaker 1: on Canadian steel and metal imports to fifty percent just

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Speaker 1: hours after me after making the threat.

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Speaker 2: So the backdown came after the Canadian province of Ontario

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Speaker 2: to suspended its own surcharge of twenty five percent on

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Speaker 2: exports of power to the US, which Trump had cited

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Speaker 2: as a reason for bursting tariff on imports from Canada. Basically, Michael,

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Speaker 2: it really is getting a bit mad, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: The worst part is I feel bad laughing about that,

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Speaker 1: as I say, because you want to be a objective

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Speaker 1: about all of this, but to have a president make

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Speaker 1: a threat like that and then to kind of backflip

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Speaker 1: on it within ours, it is objectively ridiculous.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, I maid all of this turmoil, sean one global

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Speaker 1: investor is standing apart at less in terms of making money,

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Speaker 1: Warren Buffett, No surprise there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that Elon Musk lost

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Speaker 2: about one hundred and twenty six billion dollars this year. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Tesla's share price has tumbled. Jeff Bezos lost that twenty

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Speaker 2: one billion dollars, et cetera, et cetera. The only member

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Speaker 2: of the richest twenty humans on earth to have made

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Speaker 2: a significant amount of money. He's not the only one

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Speaker 2: to have made money, but a significant amount of money

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Speaker 2: is Warren Buffett. He's made thirteen billion dollars in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five. Now. Buffett has a very simple motto for success,

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Speaker 2: very very appropriate for our show. The motto is, be

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Speaker 2: fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when

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Speaker 2: others are fearful. That's perfect. It is he fear and

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Speaker 2: Greed motto isn't yeh Yeah, I reckon.

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Speaker 1: He stole it from us. Yeah, I mean, never mind

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Speaker 1: the fact that he's been saying it for fifty.

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Speaker 2: Years or more more.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So.

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Speaker 2: In the lead up to the front presidency and since

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Speaker 2: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been selling shares and amassing cash,

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Speaker 2: He's been criticized heavily for holding so much cash. Ins

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Speaker 2: the fact about one third of Berkshire Hathaway's assets, I

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Speaker 2: mean cash, it's about three hundred and thirty four billion

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Speaker 2: US dollars. Just as the market tumbles. He's laughing now eh.

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Speaker 1: Go was Ah the Oracle of Omaha does it again? Wow?

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Speaker 1: Right up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview

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Speaker 1: with Life three sixties Boss Chris Hull's a great conversation

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Speaker 1: and Sean at midday today ask Fear and Greed, which

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Speaker 1: is our twice weekly bonus episode that comes out today.

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Speaker 1: I reckon could be my favorite question that we have

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Speaker 1: had yet, and it is all about gold. And I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to say any more than that, but it

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Speaker 1: is a lot of fun. Just have a listen, let

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Speaker 1: us know what's thinking. If you've got your own question,

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Speaker 1: that you would like us to answer and ask Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed, then send it in via any of the

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Speaker 1: social media platforms or via our website. So plenty of

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Speaker 1: good listening coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on the podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com. Dodate you,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It is Thursday, the

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Speaker 1: thirteenth of March twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following

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Speaker 1: the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. Have a great day.