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Speaker 1: House price growth slows sharply, with some capital cities now

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Speaker 1: going backwards. The local share market hits another record level,

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Speaker 1: and ossie CEOs believe work from home will be over

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Speaker 1: within three years. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business

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Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: the first of October twenty twenty four. I'm Adam Lang

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Speaker 1: and good morning Sean Almer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Adam.

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Speaker 3: Quite an auspicious day to have you hosting the show

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Speaker 3: with me. Michael's got the day off, but you know,

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Speaker 3: the first day of the quarter very appropriate.

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Speaker 1: I think Adam training wheels. We'll see how we go.

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Speaker 1: Give me a mark at the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: Sean with pleasure go on the main story this morning, Sewan.

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Speaker 1: House price growth in several major cities, including Melbourne has

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Speaker 1: stalled as the market cools on the back of ongoing

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Speaker 1: high interest rates.

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Speaker 3: In the first month of spring, dwelling values rose by

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Speaker 3: just zero point four percent across the nation, taking these

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Speaker 3: September quarter eyes to one percent.

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Speaker 2: Four capital cities.

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Speaker 3: Recorded a fall through the September quarter, led by Melbourne

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Speaker 3: where values were down more than one percent, Canberra, Hobart

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Speaker 3: and Darwin also went backwards. While Sydney home prices for

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Speaker 3: the September quarter were up half a percent, it was

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Speaker 3: the slowest pace since the beginning of last year. The

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Speaker 3: mid sized capitals, which have led the pace of capital

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Speaker 3: gains through most of the upswing, are also losing momentum,

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Speaker 3: even though they're doing much better than places like Sydney

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Speaker 3: and Melbourne. Perth values were up four point seven percent

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Speaker 3: during the third quarter. Sounds good, but the Dune quarter

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Speaker 3: was six point two percent, so they're certainly easing. The

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Speaker 3: quarterly gains in Adelaide looked to be topping out with

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Speaker 3: a four percent rise through the quarter, and Brisbane's quarterly

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Speaker 3: growth has eased back to two point seven percent. This

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Speaker 3: is all according to Core Logic. One of the key

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Speaker 3: reasons for the sluggish price growth is the supply of

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Speaker 3: homes on the market across the nation. They're up more

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Speaker 3: than three percent on last year, the nearly nine percent

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Speaker 3: more than the five year average, and we're seeing that

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Speaker 3: with auction clearance it's falling. The umph atom has really

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Speaker 3: come out of the housing market.

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Speaker 1: So interesting, Sean. Now, if the buying and selling market

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Speaker 1: is slowing, what about the rental market?

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Speaker 3: Well, the heats definitely come out of that one as well.

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Speaker 3: With the national rental index up by just zero point

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Speaker 3: one percent in the September quarter, the smallest change in

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Speaker 3: four years. Probably the main reason for that is the

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Speaker 3: slow down in migration, but all these homes on the

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Speaker 3: market will keep downward pressure on rents good news for

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Speaker 3: a lot of people. Certainly, higher interest rates are cooling

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Speaker 3: the national auction market. It's hard to see that turning

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Speaker 3: around until interestrates in Australia start falling. The Reserve Bank

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Speaker 3: says that won't happen until next year, so that's probably

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Speaker 3: the best guess at this point.

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Speaker 1: So Sean, that's good news for renters and buyers, maybe

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Speaker 1: not for property owners. Let's move to the local markets.

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Speaker 1: How did they perform yesterday?

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Speaker 3: Lees and PASX two hundred hit a new record yesterday

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Speaker 3: two hundred and eighty five point two points before finishing

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Speaker 3: zero point seven percent.

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Speaker 2: High for the day.

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Speaker 3: That final number was eight to seven zero points. For

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Speaker 3: the September quarter, the index was up six and a

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Speaker 3: half percent. It's a pretty good go. Materials and energy

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Speaker 3: stocks led the way yesterday as the price of iron

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Speaker 3: ore continues to rise and oil bounced. BHP Rows two

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Speaker 3: point five percent, forty Few Medals was up nearly three percent,

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Speaker 3: and Rio Tinto finished two percent higher. Woodside and Santos

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Speaker 3: the energy giants, they both jumped three percent.

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Speaker 2: The big banks were.

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Speaker 3: Mixed, while Telstra was the worst of the large caps,

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Speaker 3: finishing down one percent. Casino Group Star Entertainment was the

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Speaker 3: best performer of the top two hundred, finishing up nine

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Speaker 3: to eight percent. Mind you, it fell forty three percent

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Speaker 3: on Friday, so it's only recouping some of those losses.

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Speaker 3: And there might be industrial action going on at Quantas

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Speaker 3: among the engineers, but that hasn't hurt the national carrier

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Speaker 3: share price, which is trading near a record level. In

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Speaker 3: corporate news, Linetown Resources jumped after completing its first shipment

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Speaker 3: of spoder Man concentrate to China and starting spot sales

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Speaker 3: from its Kathleen Valley project in Western Australia, New Zealand Sinila.

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Speaker 3: Milk all Rose despite posting a massive NIT loss for

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Speaker 3: the last financial year.

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Speaker 2: And dental Group.

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Speaker 3: Pacific Smile slipped slightly after its board rejected to take

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Speaker 3: over bid from Genesis.

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Speaker 1: Sean a record on the local market. What's happening in

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Speaker 1: international markets.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's about commodity prices at the moment. Now oil

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Speaker 3: price has jumped after Israel's attacks in Lebanon and Yemen,

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Speaker 3: while iron ore futures are now training above one hundred

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Speaker 3: and ten US.

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Speaker 2: Dollars a ton.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday's surge followed three of China's largest cities easing rules

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Speaker 3: for home buyers over the weekend. Of course, last week,

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Speaker 3: Beijing came out with stimulus for the economy. More broadly,

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Speaker 3: the Aussie dollar is having a good time of it,

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Speaker 3: pushing towards sixty nine and a half U US census.

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Speaker 3: We've discussed before, the Aussie is considered a commodity currency,

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Speaker 3: and so higher commodity prices pushes the local dollar higher.

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Speaker 3: And economic news, China's manufacturing activity shrink sharply last month,

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Speaker 3: as new orders at home and a broad cool pulling

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Speaker 3: down factory owners confidence to near record levels. That's according

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Speaker 3: to a private sector survey that was released yesterday, just

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Speaker 3: demonstrating how much Beijing needs to do to reinflate that economy.

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Speaker 1: Sean immediately after the show, we want everyone to stay

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Speaker 1: listening for your chat with Jackie Emery. She's the CEO

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Speaker 1: of charity Royal Far West tell us about the chat.

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Speaker 3: Yes, Jackie runs a charity that involves children's charity. It

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Speaker 3: works across the country. Times are quite tough out there

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Speaker 3: in charity land. Just because people are finding it tough,

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Speaker 3: they're not as likely to give money, but the need

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Speaker 3: is as great as ever, and we talk to Jackie

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Speaker 3: about that.

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Speaker 1: Fantastic will be back in a moment with the rest

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Speaker 1: of the day's business news Sean. The federal government's coffers

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Speaker 1: are looking better after a cut in spending helped boost

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Speaker 1: last financial year's surplus, though another one this financial year

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Speaker 1: is looking unlikely.

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Speaker 3: Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday said the final budget position

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Speaker 3: for the twenty twenty three to twenty four financial year

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Speaker 3: is a surplus of six billion dollars, and that better

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Speaker 3: than expected outcome came from reduced spending rather than higher taxing.

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Speaker 3: This financial year's deficit is forecast come in at about

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Speaker 3: twenty eight billion dollars, but that's down from initial estimates

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Speaker 3: of forty seven billion dollars, a big improvement. Dr Chalmers

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Speaker 3: said the one hundred and seventy two billion dollar turnaround

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Speaker 3: in two years was the biggest nominal improvement in the

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Speaker 3: budget in a parliamentary term. Ever, he said, debt's been

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Speaker 3: reduced by about one hundred and fifty billion dollars, which

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Speaker 3: means something like eighty billion dollars less in interest payments

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Speaker 3: on that debt.

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Speaker 2: Or very true. The bad news.

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Speaker 3: Personal income tax topped three hundred and thirty one billion dollars,

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Speaker 3: or fifty two percent of the federal government's total tax

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Speaker 3: take last financial year. Now that was due to strong

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Speaker 3: employment growth and bracket creep, but as a percent of

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Speaker 3: total revenue, income tax is now far higher than ever before. GST,

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Speaker 3: which was supposed to grow with revenue, the share it

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Speaker 3: provides to revenue is actually falling.

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Speaker 1: So interesting. So, look, that's the good news on the

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Speaker 1: budget front shown, but it isn't quite as positive on

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Speaker 1: the productivity front. And you know that's a favorite of mine.

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Speaker 2: It is it is.

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Speaker 3: Yes, productivity levels have fallen, with labor productivity returning to

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Speaker 3: the week trend in the years before the COVID nineteen

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Speaker 3: pandemic amid a surge of workers entering the care economy.

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Speaker 3: Labor productivity fell by nearly one percent across the economy

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Speaker 3: in the Dune quarter, according to the latest quarterly report

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Speaker 3: from the Productivity Commission. In the year to June twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four, productivity rose by a mist half a percent.

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Speaker 3: Now Deputy Chair of the Productivity Commission, the guy called

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Speaker 3: Alex Robson, said it marks a return to weak productivity

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Speaker 3: growth as bad us because productivity growth is a way

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Speaker 3: of alleviating inflation. Professor Robson said Australia's productivity deadlock has

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Speaker 3: persisted through two very different economic environments, one pre.

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Speaker 2: COVID and one post COVID.

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Speaker 3: It's just polycy makers need to pay closer attention to

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Speaker 3: the deeper structural issues at play.

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Speaker 1: Sean Prime Minister Anthony Alberanesi has warned that Australians do

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Speaker 1: not want radical ideologies in the country.

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Speaker 2: How did that come up well?

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Speaker 3: He said the government continues to call for a de

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Speaker 3: escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. He was

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Speaker 3: speaking ahead of a Cabinet meeting yesterday and following pro

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Speaker 3: Palestine protests on Sunday in Melbourne and Sydney. The protests

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Speaker 3: were allegedly gate crashed by pro HESBLA protesters waving flags

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Speaker 3: of the terrorist organization Mistrai. Albernesi said what happened was

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Speaker 3: worrying and Australia does not want people to bring radical

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Speaker 3: ideologies and conflict here. Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong condemned

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Speaker 3: any support for terrorist organizations such as Hesbelah. She said

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Speaker 3: it threatens national security and fuels fear and division in communities.

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Speaker 3: Opposition leader Peter Dutton calls for the Hesbela flag waivers

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Speaker 3: to be arrested.

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Speaker 1: Sean Macquarie Bank and Commonwealth Bank a winning market share

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Speaker 1: in the mortgage market as competition heats up.

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Speaker 3: So acquiring Commonwealth Bank are expanding their mortgage books at

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Speaker 3: a far faster rate then their rivals, using competitive pricing

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Speaker 3: and big cash incentives to drive interest. Data released by

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Speaker 3: the Australian Financial Regulation Authority shows mcquarie was the biggest winner,

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Speaker 3: having added one point nine billion dollars to its loan

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Speaker 3: balances in August alone. CommBank remains the country's largest residential lender.

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Speaker 3: It's got five hundred and sixty four billion dollars of

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Speaker 3: loans and its books massive weeks packs at four seventy

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Speaker 3: five A and ZZ three, IZHO three National Australia Banks

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Speaker 3: three twenty NAB's loans rose less than zero point one

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Speaker 3: percent in August after falling in July for the first

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Speaker 3: time since October twenty twenty as competition intensifies. This is

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Speaker 3: significant that the Commonwealth Bank is winning market share because

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Speaker 3: it's a leader of the market, so once it gets aggressive,

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Speaker 3: it tends to drag the rest along. Now remember last

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Speaker 3: year the Commonwealth Bank's share of market actually went backwards

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Speaker 3: for two quarters. No one thought they'd keep that up.

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Speaker 2: Well they haven't.

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Speaker 3: They've gotten aggressive again. The winner on all this, of course,

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Speaker 3: people taking out home loans is a good thing Sean

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Speaker 3: always always.

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Speaker 1: Australian CEOs believe the COVID era working from home phenomenon

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Speaker 1: will be over in three years and are rolling out

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Speaker 1: promotions and pay rises in a bid to get workers

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Speaker 1: back into the office.

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Speaker 3: That's a conclusion of KPMG's later survey of the nation's

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Speaker 3: chief executives.

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Speaker 2: As reported in The Australian.

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Speaker 3: More than four and five or eighty two percent of

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Speaker 3: respondents expect traditional white collar roles to fully return to

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Speaker 3: the office within the next three years. This is a

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Speaker 3: significant increase on the sixty six percent who were of

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Speaker 3: that opinion when surveyed last year, and comes as businesses

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Speaker 3: like Tabcrman, the New South Wales government increasingly wind back

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Speaker 3: work from home rights. Only twenty seven percent of respondents

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Speaker 3: expect hybrid office home roles to continue. No one expects

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Speaker 3: jobs to be fully remote. Australian leaders' opinions are in

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Speaker 3: line with their global peers, of whom eighty three percent

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Speaker 3: predict a full return to office based work for white

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Speaker 3: collar employees within three years. What I find interesting here, Adam,

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Speaker 3: is how quickly it's changed. I think twelve months ago,

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Speaker 3: definitely two years ago, we thought hybrid was here for good.

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Speaker 3: Now four and five for ceas reckon that it's about

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Speaker 3: to end.

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Speaker 1: Do you reckon that applies to us? Sean? Would you

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Speaker 1: call us white collar workers? You are?

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Speaker 3: I'm not. Do I have to go to the office,

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Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: Yes, okay, all right. Sure the ratings are in and

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Speaker 1: the Brisbane Lines sixty point drubbing of the Sydney Swans

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Speaker 1: and the AFL Grand Final delivered freeware broadcast Channel seventy.

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Speaker 1: It's biggest audience for a Premiership designer in eight years.

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Speaker 3: Are you over at, Adam?

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Speaker 2: This story is specifically for years now.

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Speaker 4: I'm not.

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Speaker 1: It'll take some time, Sean.

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Speaker 3: For listeners who don't know. Adam is a mad Swan supporter,

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Speaker 3: and last week we had to put up with him

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Speaker 3: wearing the Swans heresy into the office and oh my word.

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Speaker 1: So my son Sean said to me, Dad, there's been

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Speaker 1: five Grand Finals that the Swans have been in since

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Speaker 1: I've been alive. I've seen four losses.

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Speaker 3: So haven't they been in like seven and twenty years

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Speaker 3: and they've only won two?

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Speaker 2: Is that right?

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Speaker 1: Yes? Successful in getting there, but still with work to do.

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Speaker 1: Always next season.

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Speaker 3: Sean Always. The official ratings data released by oz Ham

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Speaker 3: show four point zero two four million viewers tuned into

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Speaker 3: the Grand Final, including six hundred and fifty five thousand

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Speaker 3: viewers on Seven's free streaming platform seven Plus. It's the

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Speaker 3: highest AFL Grand Final TV audience since the twenty sixteen

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Speaker 3: clash between the Bulldogs and the Swans. Saturday's ratings represent

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Speaker 3: a good result for.

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Speaker 2: Seven given that the game Adam was a blowout. Let's

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Speaker 2: be honest.

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Speaker 3: Three quarter time it's all I have. I mean, halftime,

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Speaker 3: it's just about all over, to be honest. What's kind

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Speaker 3: of interesting is the four highest rating AFL Grand Finals

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Speaker 3: of the past twenty years have all featured the Sydney Swans.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure that they won any of those. They

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Speaker 3: might have won one of them, I think looking at.

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Speaker 1: The twenty twelve sean wonderful victory.

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Speaker 2: Hmm am.

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Speaker 3: I allowed to admit that on the weekend there were

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Speaker 3: three football codes as obviously the Swans Lions game, then

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Speaker 3: there were the Wallabies all Blacks game in rugby, and

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Speaker 3: then in rugby league there was a Penrith Panthers versus

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Speaker 3: Cronelas Sharks. At some other time in my life, I

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Speaker 3: reckon that would have been eight hours of viewing for me.

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Speaker 3: I did not watch one minute of any of them.

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Speaker 3: I know, I know what's happened.

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Speaker 1: I think I did the heavy lifting for both of us.

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Speaker 3: Then it's on average, we're about normal, good.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sewan. In international news, Israel has launched a

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Speaker 1: wave of airstrikes against Hoosi rebels in Yemen, dramatically winding

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Speaker 1: its offensive against Iranian backed militants.

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Speaker 3: It came two days after assassinating Hesbella leader Hassen Israela

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Speaker 3: in Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces said the attack against

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Speaker 3: the Hooties involved dozens of warplanes and targeted power plants,

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Speaker 3: ports and other infrastructure. Israel also launched dozens of fresh

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Speaker 3: strikes in Lebanon and vowed to keep up its offensive

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Speaker 3: against Hesbela. According to the Financial Time, over the past

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Speaker 3: two weeks, Israel's offensive has killed more than a thousand

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Speaker 3: people across Lebanon. The Hooties have launched missiles and drones

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Speaker 3: at israel merchant shipping and US naval vessels in the

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Speaker 3: Red Sea ever since October seven. That, of course, is

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Speaker 3: when Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel. Now Hamas is

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Speaker 3: a fellow member of the Iran led Access of Resistance.

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Speaker 1: It's incredible, Sean, isn't It's nearly a year since this

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Speaker 1: happened and it still seems to be escalating.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very scary, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Moving to a very different topic, an increasingly popular gym

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Speaker 1: franchise in Japan is now offering teeth whitening, manicure equipment,

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Speaker 1: and photo booze as it pushes to provide services that

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Speaker 1: have little to do with getting fit.

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Speaker 2: Who would have thought that the gym was about getting fit? Now?

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Speaker 3: I have recently joined a gym, and I used to

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Speaker 3: get f forty five and you'd go there and you'd work. Now,

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Speaker 3: it is amazing how many people sit around gym's. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you've got the benches.

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Speaker 1: See, let's do that.

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Speaker 2: They're fun.

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Speaker 4: They sit on the bench online on their phone. I'm like,

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Speaker 4: get out of the world. I'm waiting here for thirty

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Speaker 4: minutes maximum. Anyway, maybe this it's called chocos app Choco

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Speaker 4: z Apka.

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Speaker 2: They call it a.

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Speaker 3: Patchwork concept and it's run by a billion dollar fitness

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Speaker 3: company in Japan that made its name in high end

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Speaker 3: personal training. Now, in less than two years, the sub

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Speaker 3: brand Choco's App has tapped into a casual and frugal

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Speaker 3: gym user base with more than fifteen hundred locations and

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Speaker 3: one point two million plus customers. According to report on Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: Typical memberships in Japan's gym industry around sixty eighty US dollars.

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Speaker 3: Choco's app is charging twenty US dollars. The gyms were

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Speaker 3: initially created as an experiment during the coronavirus pandemic when

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Speaker 3: personalized training was suffering, but it has grown since then.

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Speaker 3: Now as people spend more time working flexible hours and

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Speaker 3: at home, they're also seeking out more and riching experiences

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Speaker 3: while keeping fit. That's according to the gym, mind you.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how they're keeping fit when they're getting

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Speaker 3: their nails done. That's beyond me. They're not full service,

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Speaker 3: mind you, Like they don't have showers because most customers

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Speaker 3: stop on their way home, or they pop in for

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Speaker 3: light exercise. That's what they say anyway, Maybe only in

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Speaker 3: Japan a gym franchise where fitness has little to do

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Speaker 3: with it.

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Speaker 1: I love a disruptor model, Sean, but it sounds a

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Speaker 1: bit like krash for adults.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think you're right. That is actually well.

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Speaker 1: Done, Sean. Up next to is your interview with Jackie Emery.

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Speaker 5: All about Royal far West, the children's charity, how they're performing,

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Speaker 5: how the charity sector generally is performing, and man it's

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Speaker 5: pretty tough out there at the moment Jackie tells us

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Speaker 5: all about it.

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Speaker 1: Look forward to that. That's up next in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearngreed

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Speaker 1: dot com dot au. Thank you, Sean, Thank you Adam.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, the first of October twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: ex TikTok and Facebook, and please have a great day,