WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 12 August 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:05.120 From the skying In Center. This is Paul Murray Live. 0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:08.600 Thank you, Sherry. Look for to seeing hi again tomorrow 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:10.479 night on and off the air. Now big one, we've 0:00:10.480 --> 0:00:13.240 got forty tonight. Yes, of course, domestic politics more proof 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:16.159 Albot is digging a hole deeper by the day, the 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:18.880 opposition looking to fill it sooner rather than later. I'm 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:21.239 going to tap the brakes on some of this Muslim 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:23.960 vote talk. I'll explain why in a second. And if 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:26.000 you care about the American election, which I know you do. 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:28.800 Jad Evans, who's not had many good days, had a 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:32.120 really good day yesterday slamming CNN to their face. Well done. 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:34.760 But before we get to all of that, our own 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:37.360 health matters and the fears of what may well be 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:40.040 there for all of a us into the future is central. 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:43.680 One of those things, of course, is that many people 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:45.640 have a concern that one day they could end up 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:50.600 with some form of lessening of the brain outright Alzheimer's, dementia, 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:53.840 a phasia, or mayor or the many many different things 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:58.640 where we just aren't our normal selves. And Alzheimer's in 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:01.000 particular is something that I didn't know this until I 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:04.440 looked at the numbers today that one in ten Australians, 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:10.319 one in ten Australians right now are have For many 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:13.679 of course, it is suffering. There's no other way around it. 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:15.920 And for the families around it, of course it is 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:19.160 so deeply painful. So tonight's leads story is to tell 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.760 you some good news and it comes from the university 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:28.160 called UCLA. Now, this, of course is the University of 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:32.440 California in Los Angeles. Now they have apparently come up 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:35.480 with a new pill that may well be a wonder 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:37.640 drug when it comes to Alzheimers. Now, these things are 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:40.440 all if sparts, maybe see what happens. I don't push 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:44.480 drugs for the sake of the clickbait or anything else. 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:48.440 This is mainstream stuff that is being discussed, but it 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.520 is still a little while off. But imagine in a 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.640 lifetime if there was some sort of capacity to help 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:58.400 save people from parts of this disease. Today, the Wall 0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:01.200 Street Journal, repeated in The Australian, says the medical researchers 0:02:01.200 --> 0:02:03.520 at the University of California and Los Angeles have unveiled 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:08.360 a potential treatment for the devastating disease. No surgery. It 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:12.680 could be taken as a pill or syrup. Now, this 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:15.920 is all about the way that electrons work in the 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:18.440 brain to get them firing. The way they have been 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.040 doing the tests to this point is that they gave 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:24.840 the treatment twice daily for two weeks to some mice, 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:29.720 and they gave a placebo otherwise no treatment to other mice, 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.400 and they were put into an experiment to see how 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:38.079 they would go. Now, this is one of those mazes 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:40.959 we've all seen those things that exist. There was a 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:44.440 whole series of breeding things that took place to change 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:48.680 their brain, and they were put all three groups through 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:53.640 the standardized memory test known as a maze where they 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:57.600 have to remember their way through to find an escape hoole. Now, 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:01.240 the mice with Alzheimer's that had received the placebo, they 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:05.040 performed very poorly, so exactly as you would expect someone 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:07.880 with something like Alzheimers or an animal with Alzheimers to 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.240 end up having that effect. The mice with the ours 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:13.720 homers that had received the treatment where they crushed it, 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:16.680 they performed nearly as well on the test as those 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:21.920 who didn't have the disease at all. Now it's early stages. 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:25.960 It's if butts maybees. But for the people who know 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:28.800 the one in ten Australians that have it, or the 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.000 nine out of ten Australians that have a fear that 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:33.240 one time, towards the back end of our life, we 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.520 may end up experiencing it. Today is a day of 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:39.720 good news. Fingers crossed that the collective brains there and 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.320 around the world will be able to give hope where 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:44.960 so often hope slips away, strength and love to everyone 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:47.400 who's dealing with that before any sort of a treatment 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:52.520 like this becomes a reality to the lesser matters. Queensland, 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:54.920 Sorry Queensland, I love Queensland. Why am I saying it? 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:58.080 Because there's a que in Question Time and automatically I 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:01.360 was triggered while trying to peripherally read documents here. Well 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:05.600 in Question Time today, one issue remains dominant. It remains 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.520 the same in all the polls, which of course, is 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:09.560 that the Prime Minister is in a world of pain 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:12.600 on multiple fronts. Take your pick. When it comes to 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.720 cost of living, Australians, of course are under enormous strain, 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.440 a severe cost of living pressures. That's a headline from 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:22.320 a labor strategist who is here on Sky News today. 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:24.440 Now let's run through some of the issues that this 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:27.080 government is dealing with right now, and no wonder they 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:29.719 are in the polls situation that they are. What about 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.479 power bills, Well, as you know promise us two seventy 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:35.240 five reduction in stelle, electricity bills are set to rise. 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:39.799 And even then the three hundred dollars off the power 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.479 bill stuff which has not actually started to flow yet 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:45.640 because apparently a couple of states haven't signed off on it. Well, 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.280 that is costing b four billions of dollars and it 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.840 only goes for one year, and that's just to buy 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.600 a headline to try to get themselves through an election. 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:58.400 Another example, childcare workers. Every question the government asked itself 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:00.400 today in question time was about a PA rise that 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.040 we'll be going to the people who are involved in 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:05.400 the early education of our kids. Now, of course it 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:10.400 isn't daycare, it isn't babysitting. Early education is important in 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:12.720 setting up kids for primary and then high and then 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.160 tertiary education if that's what you want to go to. Now, yes, 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:17.280 there is way too much wokeness, and we've talked about 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:20.440 this many times before. Where there's more focus on welcome 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:23.279 to country, there is on national anthems, but the importance 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.400 and the role of formalized education as early as possible 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:28.360 in life will plenty of evidence points to that being 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.479 the right thing. Well, they are about to get a 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:33.320 major pay rise, but the pay rise is not going 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:35.280 to be paid for by the people who employ them. 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:38.560 It is going to become a permanent feature of the 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:41.599 federal budget this year, next year, and the year after 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:45.480 the first three years of that deal. Well, how much 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:47.040 does it cost for them to buy a headline? 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:52.200 Childcare workers to receive a ten percent pay rise in December, 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:56.040 another five percent a year later, all up an extra 0:05:56.160 --> 0:05:58.919 one hundred and fifty five dollars a week at a 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:01.839 taxpayer cost of three two point six billion dollars. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:06.360 Age care workers as well receiving an ordered pay rise 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:08.479 from the Fair Work Commission, the federal government decided that 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:10.560 they would pay that again, bake it into the budget. 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:16.240 The cost there eleven point three b four billion dollars. Now, 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.800 do I want pay rises for all of these sectors? Absolutely? 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.440 Of course. Do I want it baked in to every 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:25.560 budget for every year to come? Maybe not? Only because 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:29.559 this treasurer himself and the Intergenerational Report tells us that, Yeah, Okay, 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:32.320 there's a spike in revenue that means surplus this year, 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:36.480 last year, maybe probably because it's an election year next year, 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:39.679 but every year in front of that into the future 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.240 for the next forty years, we go into deficit. Now, 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:45.839 when you keep adding baked in spending like they inserted 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:49.880 things like the NDIS, like the Howard government inserted things 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:53.680 in like family tax benefits, all of those things become permanent. 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:56.279 And the second that you start to have less revenue 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:59.480 than you have expenditure, the deficits, well, they get deeper 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:03.520 and faster, and they go for longer. So again, is 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:07.320 anyone opposed to the pay rises. No, the methodology by 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:09.600 which we are going to pay for it so the 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:13.640 government can buy a headline, Well, yeah, you're allowed to 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:15.400 say that, but of course that's not the way that 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:19.080 the unnuanced politics of question time works. Well, on top 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:20.960 of all of that, and I could list a whole 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.480 collection of other things, what about this, Despite the fact 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:28.200 that the politicians in the building of Parliament House have 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:31.880 received not one, not two, but three pay rises since 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:36.360 this government came to power, The people who guard Parliament 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:41.480 House in the Australian Federal Police, well they are potentially 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:44.840 going to walk off the job. Now. This is despite 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:48.160 the fact that they are literally the line of defense 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:53.720 for our Parliament. Thankfully, all day every day they don't 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:55.800 fire a shot, and all day every day there's not 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:57.920 a threat. But on the days when one turns up, 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:00.800 you want people there are going to be able to 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:05.400 defend the crucible of democracy in this country. Those people, 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:09.520 in part are the Australian Federal Police. Well, guess who 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.200 is not giving the Australian Federal Police the pay rise 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:15.280 that they have given to other parts of the public 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:18.840 service or have baked in permanently to the federal budget 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:24.040 in things like early childhood education or aged care nursing. 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:29.200 It's the Australian Federal Police. The Federal Police are seriously 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:33.760 considering walking off the job, meaning the Parliament would not 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:37.199 be guarded by the Australian Federal Police while Parliament is 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.760 in session for the next little while as a way 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:46.880 of trying to get this pay rise. Now, for anyone 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:48.560 to walk off the job is drastic. When it is 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:52.760 the security professionals, then clearly the priorities of the government 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:55.360 are skewiff. The priorities of the government are not in 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:59.360 the right place. Meantime, other problems that this government is 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:05.680 not dealing with hospitals. Can you believe that Australia does 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.960 not have the IV drips? We don't make anything like 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:11.040 that in Australia, so all of these things get imported 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:13.640 from the rest of the world. The stock has now 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:16.000 started to run out, so there was a huge worry 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:18.760 over the weekend about whether or not we had enough 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:21.160 of this stuff. Now, remember when it was rat tests, 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:26.160 how the Labor Party went ballistic, how the media went ballistic. Well, 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:28.880 something like an IV drip would be used in every hospital, 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:34.319 every day, every year, every season. Pandemic, no pandemic. The 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:37.319 idea that there could be a shortage of that supply 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.400 is an example of a government that is not focused 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:44.080 on the real issues. State and federal governments. But whatever 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:47.960 role the federal government plays, why is this happening? And 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:50.199 it's all happening again on the Prime Minister and his 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:53.360 minister's watches. This, of course a minister who did not 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:58.480 get moved aside, despite again the performance of ambulance ramping 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:00.679 and a lot of other things that are in so 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:04.920 many public health institutions right around the country. And then 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:08.240 of course there are the people who we were told 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.800 were the heart and soul of why we needed to 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.800 have a Royal commission into the robodebt scheme, which of 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:19.240 course chased people for either incorrectly accounted or at times 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:23.280 false debts for social security. Some of those people ended 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:25.679 up taking their own lives. Now, despite the fact that 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:28.160 the scheme had been shut down and apologized for, we 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:31.000 still got a Royal commission into it anyway. But of 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.320 course it wasn't about fixing the scheme. It was about 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:36.120 making sure that they could hang it on the previous government. Well, 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:37.760 what's about to happen here when we hear that an 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:44.640 NDIS participant has died after she was being chased for debts? 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:49.000 Any plan on a question on this in Question Time 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:55.319 now Again the exact circumstances in and around this young 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:58.280 lady in her final days vitally important. But if we 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.240 had to have a royal commission to go back over 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:03.920 the victims who needed to be heard, despite the fact 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:05.560 that the scheme that all of this was about had 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:07.880 already been shut down and compensation have been paid for, 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:12.400 what about the one this government's running now today? And then, 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:14.920 of course there's our education system it doesn't matter how 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:17.679 much money that we have thrown at it. The results 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:20.120 in the education system have gone down, down, down. The 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:23.199 discipline has gone down, down, down. And now there's a 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:25.920 take it or leave it style of negotiation which is 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.959 happening between the federal government, which is labor, and all 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:31.200 but one of the states, which is labor, and the 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.800 states are not taking the deal. So this bloke is 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:36.280 spending billions of dollars to buy a headline two little 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.720 too late tax cuts that have not moved the needle 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:40.440 for people when it comes to dealing with the cost 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:44.240 of living. They have also spent billions of dollars trying 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:46.040 to say that they're going to help out with power bills, 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.080 when the reality is the twenty five dollars a month 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.040 is already being eaten up by the increases in power 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:54.160 bills that come in part because of this government's obsession 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:56.760 with moving from one system that worked to another one 0:11:56.760 --> 0:12:00.600 that fingers crossed will work and costs a trillion dollars. 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:03.640 This bloke is in a world of pain. He's in 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:06.880 a world of pain because politicians always are and circumstances 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:08.400 they are not always in control of, and there is 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:10.760 not a limitless bucket of money. But when they want 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:12.720 to find binions, they can do it to buy a headline. 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:17.160 But there are several people from the public schools, the 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:19.800 public hospitals and even the people who guard our Parliament 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:22.920 who are all saying this government is missing in action. 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:27.880 Nothing to see here right, which of course brings us 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:30.600 to the Prime Minister. As we've told you before, polling 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.200 is moving against him as preferred prime minister in the 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:37.280 Resolve poll. Also his standing about what Australians think of 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.400 his performance as Prime minister. Cherry showed you before, but 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.800 I'll double down here. Well done to Christopherdall writing an 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.400 opinion piece in the Nightly, which is the Channel seven 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:47.000 thing that they put out online each and every night, 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:51.160 where very cleverly Anthony Abernezi is the raygun of Australian politics, 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:54.679 making reference to that ridiculous nonsense of the break dancing 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:59.080 at the Olympics. Now this bloke doesn't miss our iconic 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.960 bee girl is all Bunning years, kangaroo hops and body drops. 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:07.240 DJ Albow is all top labour chops and policy flops. Hallelujah, 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:10.199 clever good take the piss out of these people. They 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:13.880 deserve it. Like the dancer Albinizi is spinning on his 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:18.200 head and landing on his ass. Pm x DJ Albow 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.679 is missing the beat and we're paying the price. Albo 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:26.040 and Raygun might be ironic cult heroes in some circles, 0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:28.840 but what is absolutely certain is their doping moves will 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:34.080 not pay the bills. Well done, excellent. The opinion polls 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.760 back up this view as well that the Prime Minister, 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:40.080 who of course apparently is lovely and delightful, but of 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:41.480 course heran up to it when it comes to the 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:43.920 real issues. They had a solution how to win an election, 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.160 no question, but their solution to running a country well 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:49.600 on how many different levels can they fail all at once? 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:52.800 Sort of everything everywhere, all at once, as the film 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.400 was of course called. As you see today in the 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:58.920 news poll the Labor Party is in a world of 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:02.200 trouble thirty two percent. That's down from the last one 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.000 and down from the last federal election. The Liberal Party 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.160 at thirty nine percent is oh so close to the 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:11.000 magical forty. They win elections if they are at forty. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.960 Now I always have to say the Teal vote matters, 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.160 the Teal seats matter, and they are the big block 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:21.520 between government or opposition. But we'll all wait and see 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:23.520 whether people have had enough of the government and therefore 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.960 will step away from people like the Teals. But also 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:28.920 let's have a look at the Prime minister now. He 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:32.440 is the multiple prime minister in a row who decided 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.520 to set a bar for themselves that proves success. 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:39.880 We haven't lost, to go back to Nemesis, we haven't 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.320 lost a news poll since I've been Prime minister. 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.120 Yeah, but a few months ago he had a fifty 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.000 to fifty year and he's got a fifty to fifty 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:52.040 right now. Now we will see whether this turns fifty 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.200 one to forty nine in which direction. But after the 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:57.960 performance in Parliament, the reality of the economy, the fears 0:14:57.960 --> 0:14:59.600 of the people have in particularly when it comes to 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:01.920 the Reserve Bank. I wouldn't betting the house on the 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.840 Labor Party right now. As well as another poll, the 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.160 Resolve poll. We told you this in great detail last night. 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.280 Fifty one percent of the country repeat, fifty one percent 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.720 of the country, when asked by the channel on newspapers 0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:15.480 say the Prime Minister's performance is poor or very poor. 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.000 And then this is the one that is really going 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:23.320 to drive the point home. Because how many of these 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:28.120 issues are considered to be the top priorities of Australian voters. 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.480 When you compare the Labor Party to the Liberal Party, 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:38.240 on which issues people think the Labor Party is better on, well, 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.360 they're behind the Liberal Party by seventeen points. On the economy, 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.520 they are losing badly. Managing the finances otherwise known as 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:48.360 the federal budget, they are losing badly. They are down 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:54.520 eighteen points. Defense, They are losing badly fourteen points immigration, 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:56.720 where remember everything was so terrible we had to flip 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:02.920 the ministers thirteen percent. So the Treasurer is involved in 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:04.920 the budget, The treasure is involved in the economy, The 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.320 Finance minister is involved in the budget. The Finance minister 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:09.480 is involved in the economy, the finance of the Defense 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.320 Minister and Deputy Prime Minister is involved in defense. But 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.680 it was the immigration ministers who decided to get the flip. 0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:19.520 So guess what. The reshuffling of a cabinet and the 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:22.280 reshuffling of ministers, the reshuffling of deck chairs on a 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:27.040 political titanic, It doesn't actually change anything. Again, there is 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:29.240 a great golf between the people who talk about politics 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.000 full time and the reality of voters who live with 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.560 its consequences. The same people who told us the budget 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:37.120 was fantastic and more offterward early election because this is 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:38.880 going to turn everything around and everyone's going to love 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.360 a tax cut. Who told you on Budget night too little, 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:45.920 too late? Now we know what moves the needle here. 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.640 We also know what the blocks are to a potential 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:49.400 change in government. 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:49.560 Now. 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:51.640 I have never been a person who's ever, ever, ever, 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:53.880 ever ever told you this is a one term government, 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.000 never ever, And you know how I can't stand them. 0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:58.280 But when the issues are moving the way they are, 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:00.760 the personal ratings are moving the way they are, and 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:04.240 the two party preferred is moving the way it is. Again, 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:06.920 I'm not going to say that's what's in its future, 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:09.719 but the automatic assumption that the only party that may 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:11.800 be in a position to form minority government is Labor 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:16.959 is starting to change. Now let's get to this Muslim 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:21.840 vote stuff. Now. Islamic people in Australia have grown by 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:26.359 population over the years after coming to the country, after 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:31.280 multiple generations being born in the country. The numbers are 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.439 relatively small in terms of the national figures, but as 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.600 we've talked about before, like many minority communities, they end 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:41.920 up sort of clustering in certain areas, particularly Western Sydney, 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:46.760 and generally speaking, the results in those areas of which 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:51.399 people live that have high Islamic populations have resulted in 0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.480 pretty solid results for the Labor Party. Let's speak about 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:57.119 the seat of Watson. The seat of Watson in Western 0:17:57.160 --> 0:17:59.400 Sydney is the one that is owned by own sorry 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:04.840 held by the Home Affairs and Arts Minister Tony Burke. 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:07.720 Now tomorrow apparently we're going to hear that there will 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:13.240 be a independent who is planning to stand and we 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:18.280 will learn more about the organization behind this person tomorrow. 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:20.760 But I want to pump the brakes on people who 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.480 believe that quote unquote, the Muslim vote is going to 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:25.480 see a whole bunch of Labor MPs tipped out on 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:29.360 their backside. Now there is a chance that there could 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.000 be a few little effects in the Senate. There's some 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:34.919 preference whispering that is now at the heart of some 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.119 of this stuff, which means there may well be a 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.640 result of a senator who may will magically appear from 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:43.159 a place like New South Wales getting the sixth and 0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.040 final spot. But in terms of the number of MPs 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:48.119 that are about to hit the floor. It's not going 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:53.280 to happen. Let me explain why. Now, Yes, even though 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:55.960 there's a significant Islamic population in the seat of Watson, 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.200 and clearly if it decided to vote for a community 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:04.000 independent that was to the Labor MP, then Tony Burk's 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.919 vote would fall. But at the last election, Tony Burke's 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.159 vote in that seat was fifty one point five to 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:14.840 one percent of the vote almost fifty two percent. Was 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:18.600 then followed by the Liberals, the Greens, United Australia and 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:23.040 One Nation. So let's imagine that you insert another person 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:26.280 here and they get fifteen percent of the vote, Well, 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:28.920 they would not end up getting into the preference game 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:31.600 because they would have to poll higher than the Liberal 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:34.240 Party and they have to finish second. For them to 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:38.240 actually win the seat and end up defeating the Labor Party, 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:43.240 they would need the preferences of the Greens, United Australia Party, 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:46.800 One Nation and the Liberals. That is not going to 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.280 happen in the seat of Watson. Now, I do not 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:54.520 believe we're going to be in a scenario here as well. 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:57.240 When let's imagine that it ended up at Sievio half 0:19:57.240 --> 0:20:00.199 of the vote a quarter of the vote total, but 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:02.840 half of Labour's vote disappeared and it ended up you know, 0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:05.560 everyone at twenty five, twenty five, twenty five. Well, does 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:08.800 anyone believe that the local Islamic candidate running on the 0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:10.800 Muslim vote or whatever the brand is going to be, 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:12.439 is going to end up sending the preferences of the 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:13.119 Liberal Party. 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:13.480 No? 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:15.399 Does anyone think the Liberal Party is going to send 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:20.440 the preferences to whomever the local independent is. No. You see, 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:22.720 the Teals have been able to get there because everyone 0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:25.520 but the Liberal Party sends their preferences to the Teals. 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:29.600 Many major parties end up running dead in those seats 0:20:29.640 --> 0:20:32.760 in order to get the Teal to finish second and 0:20:32.800 --> 0:20:35.359 all of the preferences to get you up and over 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:41.360 fifty percent tomorrow night, seven point thirty. Fascinating little insight 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:43.640 into what may or may not be happening. And again, 0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:45.280 I think the true consequences here are going to be 0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:48.679 at the Senate level potentially, rather than the seat level, unless, 0:20:48.680 --> 0:20:51.640 of course they're going to start preferencing the Libs. Ain't 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:55.520 going to be happening. Well, Fatima, payment of course, the 0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:58.040 senator who decided to move from the Labor Party to 0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:00.880 an independent who, by the way, apparently according to the press, 0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:04.280 has decided to hire a preference whisperer from a completely 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:08.359 different state to work for her in her office. Well, 0:21:08.440 --> 0:21:11.200 she is going to well make more news. He's part 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:13.600 of it. That it's not that she did the wrong 0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:15.919 thing by crossing the floor, it's that more Labor people 0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:17.960 didn't join her. 0:21:18.440 --> 0:21:23.960 I'd probably say that I didn't expect the Labor Party 0:21:24.080 --> 0:21:29.640 to not follow its own platform. I've been hearing from 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:32.439 people on the ground that they do feel betrayed that 0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.480 it wasn't me who crossed the floor. It was the 0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:38.399