1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,280
Speaker 1: Well, the Liberal Party leadership. It's not a new discussion,

2
00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:05,199
Speaker 1: is it. It's just what we haven't had for a

3
00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:09,479
Speaker 1: short period of time, relatively speaking, because after ten years

4
00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,120
Speaker 1: of Stephen Marshall, the longest person in the job since

5
00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,960
Speaker 1: Tom Flake play for a couple of years with David Spears,

6
00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:19,239
Speaker 1: he's decided doesn't have the energy to go forward or

7
00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,160
Speaker 1: the inclination anymore in the job. Had a gutfull, he says.

8
00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,840
Speaker 1: The Liberal Party find themselves in the not unusual position

9
00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,760
Speaker 1: of having to select a replacement. Associate Professor Rob Manwaring

10
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,760
Speaker 1: from Flinder's UNI on the line, Rob, good morning, Good

11
00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,280
Speaker 1: morning Mattie. Where too next for the party? Where do

12
00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:37,639
Speaker 1: they go?

13
00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,120
Speaker 2: Well, it's a really good question, and I think, I

14
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,319
Speaker 2: mean the short term answer, of course, is that they

15
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,720
Speaker 2: need a new leader. And it's quite likely that I

16
00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,720
Speaker 2: think it's been widely suggested that John Gardner from the

17
00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,680
Speaker 2: Moderate faction is probably the front runner to sort of

18
00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,120
Speaker 2: take on that in the short term at least, and

19
00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,480
Speaker 2: I think Ashton hern is often touted as a kind

20
00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,920
Speaker 2: of a future kind of leader. So the short term

21
00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:02,840
Speaker 2: option is they've got to find a new leader, someone

22
00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:04,400
Speaker 2: to kind of try and heal some of the rifts

23
00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 2: and take them into the next election. However, there's a

24
00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,039
Speaker 2: longer term question here about the general state of the

25
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,440
Speaker 2: Liberal Party itself here in South Australia. It seems again

26
00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,639
Speaker 2: still highly factionalized, highly divided, and I mean, I'm judging

27
00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,560
Speaker 2: by David spears comments yesterday, you get a center. It's

28
00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:23,800
Speaker 2: quite a toxic culture too within the top of the

29
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,520
Speaker 2: ranks of the party as well, and as he said,

30
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,119
Speaker 2: he's had a gutfull. So that is the longer term

31
00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,240
Speaker 2: problem about overhauling the Liberal Party here in the state.

32
00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,000
Speaker 1: That toxic culture. Though, is it rumblings about his style

33
00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,440
Speaker 1: of leadership that's led to that? Is that the fact

34
00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,759
Speaker 1: that he chose Budget week to go overseas to attend

35
00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,840
Speaker 1: a wedding is a lack of policy. Is that you

36
00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,559
Speaker 1: know our read of snarky comments and speeches he's given

37
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 1: attacking various business groups his own constituency is a combination

38
00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:55,160
Speaker 1: of all of that.

39
00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think so well to a certain state,

40
00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,000
Speaker 2: we don't know fully because a lot of this is

41
00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:06,160
Speaker 2: you know, internal kind of unease, unhappiness that's being directed,

42
00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,639
Speaker 2: which you know never sees the full public light of day.

43
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,079
Speaker 2: So you know, we're only speculating to a certain extent

44
00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,600
Speaker 2: about that, but some of those all of those elements

45
00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,079
Speaker 2: would be key part of it. And I think particularly,

46
00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,120
Speaker 2: I mean, losing the dunstant Bi election, for example, was

47
00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 2: just part of this story about how you know, about

48
00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:29,000
Speaker 2: a leader not really building momentum and and not seemingly

49
00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,040
Speaker 2: able to kind of land a punch upon you upon

50
00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,639
Speaker 2: the Malanowskist government, and that seems to be you know,

51
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,320
Speaker 2: this rumblings really is about the overall kind of performance

52
00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,000
Speaker 2: of kind of David Spears. I mean, his argument might

53
00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,880
Speaker 2: well be that actually, you know, actually galvanizing quite a

54
00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,920
Speaker 2: factional and divided party has proved really difficult in the

55
00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,840
Speaker 2: in the kind of rebuild. And I think what's interesting

56
00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 2: too in his comment is that he was saying that

57
00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,960
Speaker 2: he doesn't necessarily think that any new leader is really

58
00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,440
Speaker 2: going to try and change sort of kind of a

59
00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,880
Speaker 2: massive changing direction. I mean, but what you would say

60
00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:05,480
Speaker 2: is really problematic. It really is unclear about what the

61
00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,240
Speaker 2: policy portfolio or offerings as the Liberals is going to be.

62
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:12,720
Speaker 2: There's still like a lot of uncertainty about what they

63
00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,000
Speaker 2: kind of stand for and how they're going to offer

64
00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:16,239
Speaker 2: themselves at the next election.

65
00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:21,600
Speaker 1: They last at least one leadership contender at the last election,

66
00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,560
Speaker 1: didn't They in Dan van Holz Pelikan who would have

67
00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:29,400
Speaker 1: he was Deputy Premier at the time. As well. Stephan Canal,

68
00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,959
Speaker 1: who'd be likely another contender, had decided as a result

69
00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,200
Speaker 1: of the travel roughts issue, not to stand for re election.

70
00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:40,840
Speaker 1: So there goes another potential candidate. And as you say, Rob,

71
00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:42,080
Speaker 1: they're a bits in on the ground.

72
00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,040
Speaker 2: Well, that's right. There doesn't seem to be a huge

73
00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:49,240
Speaker 2: amount of depth upon the kind of the benches there

74
00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 2: so in terms of you know, really likely, sort of

75
00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,960
Speaker 2: charismatic leaders who could really sort of drive forward the party.

76
00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:55,240
Speaker 1: I mean.

77
00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,200
Speaker 2: The other element of that that's also is the issue

78
00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:01,960
Speaker 2: around gender for example, So under the last Marshall government,

79
00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,520
Speaker 2: for example, the overall female representation in Parliament and the

80
00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 2: number of female MPs with the Liberal Party was like

81
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 2: one of the worst in the entire country. So we

82
00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:14,080
Speaker 2: had the worst levels of female representation. And whilst David

83
00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,360
Speaker 2: Spears has made some efforts to try and bring forward

84
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,960
Speaker 2: you know, strong, credible kind of female candidates into Liberal ranks,

85
00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,479
Speaker 2: it's still a really significant problem and it's an electoral

86
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:29,000
Speaker 2: problem too, because as the Till candidates show, is that

87
00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,960
Speaker 2: this is a way of re energizing what liberal party

88
00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:37,159
Speaker 2: politics can be about. And again this is again showing

89
00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 2: a lack of depth and a lack of ability to

90
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,839
Speaker 2: kind of recruit and retain strong candidates.

91
00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,120
Speaker 1: So the challenge that he issued a couple of weeks ago,

92
00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,120
Speaker 1: David Spears to anyone in the party come and get me,

93
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,560
Speaker 1: was that the final straw? Do you think I mean,

94
00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,440
Speaker 1: something changed from there? At that point he seemed committed

95
00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,160
Speaker 1: and obviously tough talks. He was there, and then all

96
00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:00,760
Speaker 1: of a sudden the week ed later, he's.

97
00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,120
Speaker 2: Gone, yeah, that's right. I mean again to certain thing.

98
00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,680
Speaker 2: We don't we don't fully know the kind of background,

99
00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,680
Speaker 2: but it's but it seems like he was just completely

100
00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 2: fed up with a lot of the kind of the

101
00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,440
Speaker 2: background and probably what I think is sort of what

102
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,880
Speaker 2: I would deems to be kind of toxicity within the

103
00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,400
Speaker 2: kind of top levels of the party, and and I

104
00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,080
Speaker 2: think he felt like unable that he you know, he

105
00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,720
Speaker 2: didn't have the backing of those of those kind of

106
00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,839
Speaker 2: leader of the senior people within the party, and therefore,

107
00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 2: you know, clearly has just walked away. I mean what's unusual,

108
00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,520
Speaker 2: you would say as well, is that normally, in terms

109
00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,240
Speaker 2: of looking at opposition leaders and opposition leaders changes, that

110
00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,600
Speaker 2: there is a clear challenger and we often see a

111
00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,240
Speaker 2: ballot and someone put to the test. So for example,

112
00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,919
Speaker 2: when you know Peter to Peter, dunn't sort of you know,

113
00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,520
Speaker 2: stepped up initially to challenge a man from Turnbules. There's

114
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,400
Speaker 2: a there's often a kind of challenges. So this is

115
00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,159
Speaker 2: slightly unusual that we've seen a leader just kind of

116
00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:56,919
Speaker 2: throw the twel in.

117
00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, so apart from that tux this I mentioned

118
00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,280
Speaker 1: just before the break, how since Playford there have been

119
00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,880
Speaker 1: fourteen Liberal leaders in South Australia, of which six have

120
00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 1: become premier, eight Liberal Labor leaders and all eight have

121
00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:18,719
Speaker 1: become premier. So, putting aside perhaps toxicity, what's the difference

122
00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,640
Speaker 1: what makes Labor so successful in South Australia compared to

123
00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:26,440
Speaker 1: the Libs which always who always seem to flounder between elections.

124
00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's probably a number of factors, and probably the

125
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,400
Speaker 2: most important one is probably the electoral geography of the state.

126
00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,920
Speaker 2: Is that we're a highly concentrated state within within the

127
00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:42,760
Speaker 2: within the kind of metropolitan areas, and the spread of

128
00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,200
Speaker 2: the vote means that the Liberal vote is very inefficiently

129
00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,600
Speaker 2: spread under our electoral system across the state. So what

130
00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,680
Speaker 2: that means is that there's lots and lots of kind

131
00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:56,800
Speaker 2: of liberal votes in regional and rural areas, but actually

132
00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,680
Speaker 2: not enough kind of liberal voters or swing voters in

133
00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:04,039
Speaker 2: those key marginal swing seat And so when for example,

134
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,560
Speaker 2: you know it's Redmond or others, you know, sometimes the

135
00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,680
Speaker 2: Liberals have won the two party preferred votes but not

136
00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,000
Speaker 2: one the seat count because there's so many in effect

137
00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,760
Speaker 2: wasted votes in the electoral geography. So the failure of

138
00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,160
Speaker 2: the Liberal Party in one thing, and it's baffling to

139
00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,400
Speaker 2: a certain extent, is that they just seem unable, unlike

140
00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,320
Speaker 2: the Labor Party, to really tap into the needs and

141
00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:30,560
Speaker 2: concerns of particularly those sort of outer suburban kind of

142
00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:34,080
Speaker 2: seats and swing voters. And the Liberal Party seem unable

143
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,800
Speaker 2: to find a political formula which meets those needs because

144
00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:38,800
Speaker 2: that's the seat that need to change for them to

145
00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,240
Speaker 2: win office. And you know, they're back to square one,

146
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:41,800
Speaker 2: hears again.

147
00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, so eighteen months to the next election, is

148
00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,320
Speaker 1: that enough time for a new leader? Whoever it might

149
00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,720
Speaker 1: be to bring the party to relevance.

150
00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, in theory it is because and I suppose David

151
00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,920
Speaker 2: Spears has done the service here, because this then gives

152
00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:00,520
Speaker 2: a chance for a new leader to build some profile,

153
00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:05,920
Speaker 2: to kind of reorient the party and to also you know,

154
00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,120
Speaker 2: set out a kind of a clearer kind of policy

155
00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,520
Speaker 2: direction in terms of how they want to take that forward.

156
00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,640
Speaker 2: So so in theory, there's there's quite, there's quite there

157
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,440
Speaker 2: should be enough time here to make a sort of

158
00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,960
Speaker 2: credible kind of challenge. But the issue would be, regardless

159
00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,240
Speaker 2: of who the new leader will be, that how do

160
00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:26,600
Speaker 2: they confront these structural problems both within the internal machinations

161
00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:30,360
Speaker 2: of the party, but also then looking at how they

162
00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,520
Speaker 2: how they you know, strategically present to the to the

163
00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,040
Speaker 2: elector of the next election. And these are much deeper

164
00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,800
Speaker 2: questions which you know remain remain very much open.

165
00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:42,600
Speaker 1: And the factions within the Liberal Party, I mean, Labor

166
00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:44,760
Speaker 1: have got the affections too. But you know, in the

167
00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,959
Speaker 1: past I've compared it to well, the blood lending. If

168
00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,319
Speaker 1: it happens in the labor parties behind closed doors, in

169
00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,600
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party, it's all over the streets of Adelaide.

170
00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, and I think I think this is

171
00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,440
Speaker 2: the This is probably what I think needs. You know

172
00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:00,959
Speaker 2: that there probably is now due to be a reckoning

173
00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,560
Speaker 2: within the state Liberal Party, or there should be one,

174
00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:07,120
Speaker 2: otherwise they'll they'll continue to stay divided because I think

175
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,880
Speaker 2: generally voters, if they see a divided party, they won't

176
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,720
Speaker 2: support it, and there has to be a kind of

177
00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,240
Speaker 2: a you know, one of the things that the Labor

178
00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:18,160
Speaker 2: Party managed, both federally and across the States is that

179
00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:23,640
Speaker 2: they have highly strong kind of factional deals and arrangements

180
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,600
Speaker 2: which are very tight and binding, whereas the Liberal Party

181
00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:33,240
Speaker 2: seem unable to really to negotiate and actually building kind

182
00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,000
Speaker 2: of binding agreements across those kind of factions, which is

183
00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,200
Speaker 2: why you know, there's been I think it's something like

184
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,680
Speaker 2: at least fixed mp to defected from the from the

185
00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,959
Speaker 2: Liberals since twenty eleven, so you know, there's a lot

186
00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,160
Speaker 2: of unease, and ultimately a lot of Liberal MPs or

187
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,000
Speaker 2: a number of small number of them have just seemed

188
00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,280
Speaker 2: to have think, Okay, I'll take my chances elsewhere because

189
00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:58,240
Speaker 2: they know they're not unhappy. Because of that instability.

190
00:09:57,880 --> 00:09:59,640
Speaker 1: Would the number one thing that the new leader be

191
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,000
Speaker 1: to try and get those people back into the party.

192
00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think I think it's you know,

193
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,920
Speaker 2: you know, initially that the initial kind of focus will

194
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 2: be actually trying to kind of to look at how

195
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,480
Speaker 2: the internal organization is working and to see if they

196
00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,800
Speaker 2: can they can sort of reset that. And then I

197
00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:19,480
Speaker 2: think what they need to do is actually really just

198
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,040
Speaker 2: do some outward facing work, is really try and connect

199
00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,600
Speaker 2: and listen to kind of what South Australian voters want

200
00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:29,000
Speaker 2: and see whether they can then respond, you know, accordingly.

201
00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,400
Speaker 1: All right, we'll see where it ends up on Monday,

202
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,320
Speaker 1: possibly party room meeting and a new leader to be selected.

203
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:35,720
Speaker 1: Appreciate your time this morning.

204
00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:37,160
Speaker 2: Rob, Yeah, absolute pleasure.

205
00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,160
Speaker 1: Rob manwearing from Flinder's UNI