1 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we 2 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: ask an answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more. 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and every Monday morning we are joined 4 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: by economist Stephen Cooculis to look at the week ahead. 5 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 1: You'll find him at the kook dot com that's t 6 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,759 Speaker 1: h e k o uk dot com and sharing his 7 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: views on LinkedIn as well under Stephen cock Cooler. 8 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 2: Stephen, good morning, Very good morning. Michael. 9 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: Got to say, it doesn't get much bigger than this week, 10 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: does it. I mean, we've got the Reserve Bank board 11 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 1: meeting today and tomorrow there'll be a decision tomorrow afternoon 12 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: on interest rates, and then on Thursday we get the 13 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: latest labor force figures. We will start with the main 14 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 1: game though, the Reserve Bank and the potential for a 15 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: rate hike, which actually is now a live option. Last 16 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: week we had Deputy Governor Andrew Houser and his commentary 17 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: that really didn't require that much reading between the lines, 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: did it? 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 2: He said? 20 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: I think the quote was failing to raise rates to 21 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 1: the level they need to be and allowing inflation to 22 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: get out of control is a clear problem. We've got 23 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: the big banks tipping a rate hike tomorrow. We've got 24 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: Andrew Howser suggesting that it's going to happen. Are we 25 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: going to get one. 26 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 2: The RBA board members, the two people that's the governor 27 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 2: and the Deputy Governor, Michelle Bulk. Andrew Houser himself will 28 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 2: probably be arguing for a rate hike. Now we've learnt 29 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 2: from this new Monetary Policy Board that their is not 30 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 2: like in the olden days, a rubber stamp on what 31 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 2: the RBA is thinking. Okay, that these independent members of 32 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 2: the board do have monetary policy expertise. They do have 33 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: their finger on the pulse of the economy, perhaps in 34 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 2: a slightly different way to the RBA. That's not to 35 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 2: say that they're in any way politically compromised. They high 36 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 2: great last month, for example, But it does mean that 37 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 2: there's a lot of US economists a debating right now, 38 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 2: that it is a contestable decision, and that until Andrew 39 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 2: Howser came out early last week with his very very 40 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: hawkish comments, the big banks were sort of probably not. 41 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 2: Market pricing for the meeting announcement tomorrow was probably not 42 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 2: and it was really only his hawkish comments that fueled 43 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: this move to the other side of the ship where 44 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 2: maybe they won't, they probably will. So the RBA obviously 45 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 2: looking at the global issues, the high oil price, the 46 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 2: direct effect of higher oil prices on inflation, thinking that 47 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 2: in any event, inflation to begin with is already a 48 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 2: little too high or their liking, and hence the high 49 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 2: probability that yep, we'll see the rate tomorrow afternoon. 50 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: Okay, because I mean the inflation position hasn't changed in 51 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. They really the big variable 52 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: last week that seems to have made tip the balance 53 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: here is the global situation. And if we just take 54 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: a step back and look at oil for a second, 55 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: and I want to ask you about the volatility in 56 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,679 Speaker 1: the price of oil and what that means for the 57 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: risk for inflation. But first, why does oil matter so 58 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 1: much to the global economy? 59 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 2: Oil is still an important part of the transport logistics, 60 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 2: household consumption expenditure, and it goes into plastics and things 61 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 2: like that. So it's a very very important part of 62 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 2: the cost of production for a lot of manufactured and 63 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 2: other goods. It's a very big ticket item and a 64 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,119 Speaker 2: high weighting in the consumer pricing. Next, about three point 65 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 2: three percent of the basket, which is actually quite a 66 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 2: high weighting. It goes into the CPISO. For example, a 67 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 2: ten percent move on petrol prices because it's petrol, not 68 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: global oil, but same difference. A ten percent move on 69 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 2: petrol prices is at about point three to the inflation rate. 70 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 2: So we've have a twenty percent increase in petrol prices. 71 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 2: It adds zero point six to the inflation rang. Wow, 72 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: So that's why it matters. And when you've already got 73 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 2: inflation at three points something using trimmed or headline whatever, 74 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: you're getting a number very close to four percent, if 75 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: not above four percent for the headline figure. And I 76 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 2: see my good friend Sally old at Mad was saying 77 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 2: something close at scenario it's not a central forecast, as 78 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 2: I understand it, was saying something close to five percent 79 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 2: if the oil price sustains it's moving above one hundred 80 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 2: US dollars a barrel, which again we don't know. And 81 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 2: that volatility that you mentioned, that's the thing. It's extraordinary 82 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 2: watching it. It's sort of quite incredible to see these 83 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 2: five and ten percent swings in the oil price in minutes, 84 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 2: let alone a few hours. And so if you're trying 85 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 2: to frame economic policy and you think, oh, it's going 86 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 2: to be one hundred oh no, it's ninety. Oh no, 87 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 2: it's eighty. Oh no, it's one hundred and twenty dollars 88 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 2: a barrel. Well, of course that's difficult to do. Let alone. 89 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: If you're a business person heavily reliant on oil is 90 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 2: an think airlines. You've got a real dilemma about what 91 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 2: you do when you see this incredible volatility. 92 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: So is there a risk in that case? And because 93 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: the volatile volatility has been extreme and it has been 94 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: quick as well, as you say that this is happening 95 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: in minutes, that it happens on the decisions that are 96 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: made about oil reserves, it has made on military events 97 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: that are happening in the Middle East, and that price 98 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 1: is fluctuating day by day, hour by hour. Right, how 99 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: does the RBA then take that into account? Is it 100 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 1: a case of it it's better to wait and see 101 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:40,679 Speaker 1: what happens or to try and preempt it and say, look, 102 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 1: this situation in the Middle East doesn't look like it's 103 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 1: going to be resolved anytime soon. We're better to be 104 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: safe than sorry and take some preemptive action in terms 105 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: of rates. 106 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, if they did say that, I'd say, well, 107 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 2: how do they know? And that's not being rude. It's 108 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 2: sort of this question about when we see these extreme 109 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 2: market moves, this extreme volatility. And yes, there will be 110 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 2: an inflation effect from oil where it is, it will be, 111 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 2: there's no doubt about that. But as the other parts 112 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: of Andrew Howser's speech last week, which tended to be 113 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 2: glossed over given that hawkishness, was we do need to 114 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 2: see the duration of this oil price shock, and by that, 115 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 2: how long does it last. So think of a scenario, 116 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 2: and this is just a scenario, Michael, that in a 117 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 2: week's time, ten days time, two weeks time, there's a 118 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 2: resolution to the conflict in the sense of allowing the 119 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 2: oil production pumps to go pumping again. The ships are 120 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 2: able to the tankers sail around the Straits of Humors 121 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: and around the rest of the world. So in a 122 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 2: very short period of time, the oil price reverts back 123 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 2: to say, seventy odd US dollars a barrel, sort of 124 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: where it was sixty five to seventy before before the 125 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 2: war started. And if you've hiked interestrates with a high 126 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 2: waiting given to the effect of inflation on inflation, of 127 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: this oil price shock, all of a sudden, Oh, did 128 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 2: we jump the gun a little bit too much? So 129 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 2: in a way, a cautious approach would be And again 130 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 2: it could be this, this is just a scenario. They 131 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 2: hold rate steady. But the conversation from Michelle Bullock aint 132 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 2: a press conference and in the written press releases, if 133 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: the oil price remains elevated or continues to increase further, 134 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 2: if we do get confirmation through the data on you know, 135 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 2: on the actual inflation numbers that are coming through that 136 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 2: we do have that spike by the time we meet 137 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 2: in May not that far away, then we will hike. 138 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 2: But so it just gives them, it buys them five 139 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 2: or six weeks in the scheme of monetary policy is nothing. 140 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 2: You know, it doesn't really matter if if they hike 141 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 2: in maybe and don't hike in March, for example, But 142 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 2: it might be prudent just to sit tight. You know, 143 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 2: there wasn't only been going for two in a bit weeks, 144 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 2: and yes there's huge headlines and volatility, but you'd be 145 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 2: you might be playing with fire if you were to 146 00:07:57,400 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 2: hike and then all of a sudden you find that 147 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 2: the oil effect sort of washes through the financial markets. 148 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: Just quickly before we leave the RBA. Last month, we 149 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: were talking about the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, which 150 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: has a lot of forecasts and predictions for the economy, 151 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: including the outlook for inflation. How much does an event 152 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: like the Middle East just throw all of those forecasts 153 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: out the window and is there any kind of leeway 154 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: built in for the unexpected? 155 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 2: Look, As the governor says, that is our central case quote. 156 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 2: And if you look at the back of the Statement 157 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: of Monetary Policy, which comes out every third every second meeting, 158 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 2: every third month, there's these wonderful charts called fan charts. 159 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 2: It has say GDP, and it has the percentage probabilities 160 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 2: that GDP is within a particular range. And so while 161 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 2: that central forecast might be for GDP to be two percent, 162 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 2: for example, they say there's a seventy percent chance that'll 163 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 2: be within a range of one to three percent. So 164 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 2: they do put in buffers, they do put in caveats. 165 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 2: They do note that when they're preparing the forecast, they 166 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 2: do assume an oil price, which I think last time 167 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 2: was in the mid sixties. So, gosh, you know this 168 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 2: is going to change things dramatically, But again it's not 169 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 2: their fault. I don't think. Well, the conflict was always 170 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 2: there or thereabouts. You don't forecast a left field event, 171 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 2: or you don't put that into your forecast in case 172 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 2: it doesn't happen just now, like you can't put into 173 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,719 Speaker 2: your forecast. Oh, it's resolved next week. So therefore we've 174 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 2: got all back at seventy dollars a barrel even if 175 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 2: it does happen. 176 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay. The other big event this week employment numbers. 177 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 1: We'll get the labor force figures this Thursday. 178 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 2: What are we expecting, Well, don't think at that last 179 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 2: time last month, when the unemployment rate stayed at four 180 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 2: point one percent, that was one of the reasons why 181 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 2: the everyone got a little bit hawkish on RBA rate hikes, 182 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 2: that the judgment of spare capacity in the labor market 183 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 2: was compressed, as in, there's not a lot of spare capacity. 184 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 2: So this is a really important number. If we get 185 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:05,559 Speaker 2: an unemployment rate staying at four point one or four 186 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 2: point two percent, if we get another let's say, thirty 187 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 2: thousand increase in employment, which is a little bit above 188 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 2: the population and labor force growth, that would reinforce the 189 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 2: hawkishness of the RBA, even though the numbers come out 190 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 2: two days after the RBA announcement, But at reinforcement, the 191 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 2: risk is that with some indicators of the economy a 192 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 2: little bit softer, if we get a four point three 193 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 2: unemployment rates four point three percent or a softer employment 194 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 2: number and the RBA is already hiked, there's just another 195 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 2: question mark going over that decision. So really important numbers. 196 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 2: Remembering that the RBA has a dual mandate. Inflation yep, 197 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 2: we know that's high and too high and heading higher, 198 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 2: but they've also got to keep unemployment low and that 199 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 2: is low for the moment. Can we lock that in? 200 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 1: Are we likely to get a shock or a surprise 201 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 1: with these because it's starting to feel as though the 202 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 1: labor market has been very strong for a long time now, 203 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: and it is feeling like it is being very very consistent. 204 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: So how much is it a variable anymore? And how 205 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 1: much can you just rely on that strength being there? 206 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 2: That is a fabulous question. I'm just noting my good 207 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 2: friends that CBA and Westpac use their internal data to 208 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 2: look at household spending and they've done it, so I 209 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 2: think west Pac call it their Westpac card tracker or 210 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,079 Speaker 2: something like that, and CBA put out their data and 211 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 2: they all came out late last week for the month 212 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 2: of February. Okay, we don't have February retail sales or 213 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 2: household spending numbers, yet they were both pointing to weakness, 214 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 2: so that we consumers, you and me and everybody listening 215 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 2: hunkered down for whatever reason in January and February. Right, 216 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 2: And the retail and household spending side of the economy 217 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 2: is quite labor intensive. It does employ a lot of people. 218 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 2: It's one of the ones where the private sector employment 219 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 2: is strong. Anyway, just wondering, just wondering whether we're going 220 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 2: to be getting a little bit of a downside surprise, 221 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 2: as in a little bit more pessimistic numbers when these 222 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 2: labor force numbers come out on Thursday. 223 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: All right, massive week ahead. Thank you for taking us 224 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: through it this week, Stephen, Thank you, Michael. That was 225 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 1: economist Stephen Cocoles, better known as the Kook. You can 226 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: find him at the Kook dot com t h G 227 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: k o UK dot com and follow him on LinkedIn 228 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: as well, where he shares his insights under Stephen Cocoles. 229 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson. And this is fear and greed, Q 230 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:22,199 Speaker 1: and a