1 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed, summer investing series brought to 2 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: you by Vanter, specialists in compliance led growth. I'm Sean Almer. 3 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: One of the biggest investments many of us will ever 4 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: make is our Home. Twenty twenty four was an unusual 5 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: year for property prices and moving beyond a two speed 6 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: market to a three or maybe four speed market led 7 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: by the mid sized capital cities. So what does twenty 8 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: twenty five hold. Alas Stults is the national property editor 9 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: at Domain Alice. Welcome to Fear and Greed. 10 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: Thanks Shan. Great to be here. 11 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: So right to the point, what's your prediction for prices 12 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: next year? Can we still see those mid tier capitals 13 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:44,279 Speaker 1: doing so well? What's going to happen to Melbourne? What's 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 1: going to happen to Sydney? 15 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 2: Look, I think we are going to continue to see 16 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 2: price rises, but the pace or that turbocharged energy that 17 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 2: we've definitely seen throughout this year is going to ease 18 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: off somewhat. We are still, though, expecting some regional markets 19 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 2: to potent hit the million dollar club, which I don't 20 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 2: think anyone ever saw that coming. You know, a few 21 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 2: years ago that would have been sort of stopped press 22 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 2: sort of moment, and we expect to still see areas 23 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 2: like Brisbane, Adelaide per as sort of the quiet achievements. 24 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 2: They're the ones that are really leading the charge here. 25 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 2: Sydney will keep ticking along. But Melbourne it's becoming an 26 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 2: uncomfortable topic. And I say that as a Melbournie and 27 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 2: Sean but times are tough in our fair city here. 28 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: Well, why is it about Melbourne that's making it so difficult, 29 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: has made it so difficult the last twelve months, and 30 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 1: based on what you've just said, will make it tough 31 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: for the next twelve months. 32 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, look, Halsht. Prices in Melbourne have gone backwards. 33 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 2: I've down one point five percent annually over the past year, 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 2: and that's pretty extraordinary for a city like Melbourne that 35 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: was once sort of tipped to become, you know, nipping 36 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: at Sydney's heels. I think we're sort of far away 37 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 2: from that now, knowing how much growth Brisbane has also seen. 38 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: What's driving it a lot of we're asking a lot 39 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 2: of investors leave that market due to it being the 40 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 2: most heavily taxed state. You know, it's a bit of 41 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 2: a saw point a dinner parties or barbecue these days. 42 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 2: You mentioned that, and people are kind of just fiercely 43 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 2: devastated by the fact that the government has layered and 44 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,799 Speaker 2: layered on taxes when it comes particularly to investors. And 45 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:11,839 Speaker 2: when you think about investors, people sort of think, oh, yeah, 46 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 2: lots of people with lots of thousands of properties and 47 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 2: big portfolios. But often that's the moment dad type investors, 48 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 2: but where they're seeing this increase in land tax and 49 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 2: that it's just getting harder for them to manage holding 50 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: on to their secondary property they might have once lived 51 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 2: off for their super or something. It's becoming much more problematic. 52 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 2: And they're the ones that we're seeing selling and the 53 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 2: prices just aren't holding up now. 54 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: Based on domain data, the clearance rates certainly fell towards 55 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: the end of this year, and even Sydney seems to 56 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: have hit a bit of a soft spot in the 57 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: last month or so. What's the prognosis when do you 58 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: think prices can keep growing in that city? 59 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 2: I do think in Sydney they will keep growing. Having 60 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 2: said that, the clearance rates, I acknowledge that they have 61 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: been tapering towards sort of the later part of this 62 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 2: summer season. We're in At the moment, however, we have 63 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 2: seen in record levels of stock though, Shawn, so I 64 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 2: kind of feel relatively comfortable with that knowing the weight 65 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 2: of those listings. You know, we're seeing records up in 66 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 2: what they haven't been in years and years. At the moment, 67 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 2: because we have seen so much stock held back from marketers, 68 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 2: interest rates started to rise, and many people just have 69 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 2: thought life goes on. I've got to keep going along 70 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 2: with this, and they're also wanted to cash in on 71 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 2: that price growth that they've experienced, particularly in markets such 72 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 2: as Sydney. So in terms of clearance rates, they are soft, 73 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 2: but I think that's normal given the level of activity 74 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: that we're seeing. I guess all this also to say, though, 75 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 2: this is kind of actually really good news for buyers 76 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 2: because finally they've actually got a lot of choice, And 77 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 2: we know that for buyers that is also good news 78 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 2: because you know, for the past year or two, the 79 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: supply hasn't been there and they basically have been not 80 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 2: much choice available to them. 81 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: We always talk about interest rates as being kind of 82 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: all important in house prices, though, as you've just been 83 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 1: talking about stock matters equally, how important is interest rates? 84 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: And let's assume that we we'll get a couple of 85 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: interest rate cuts next year at some point. How important 86 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: is that to the market. 87 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 2: I think it really impacts confidence, and I think it's 88 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 2: an interesting thing. It's a bit sort of like an 89 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 2: emotional lever, I suppose. So what's happened is we're seeing 90 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 2: a big dump of stock this spring when people thought 91 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 2: interest rates were going to start declining, and clearly that 92 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 2: didn't come to fruition. So what we expect next year 93 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 2: will probably have a year of two halves, let's call it. 94 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 2: Probably the first half of the year will be distraction 95 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 2: with elections and probably unlikely at this stage to have 96 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 2: an interest rate cut. And I think when that cut 97 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: does hopefully come at least in the second half of 98 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: next year, we will definitely see more supply come onto 99 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 2: the market. Having said that, really what impacts ultimately prices, though, 100 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 2: is population. So interest rates will sort of be the heart. 101 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 2: Let's think of it like that. That's the heart that 102 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 2: makes people think I'll hold off. I won't so now. 103 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 2: But population growth is what's really going to underpin prices, 104 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 2: and that's why in cities such as Melbourne, I believe 105 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 2: it will be okay here eventually knowing the population growth 106 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 2: of what's coming to Victoria. But I do think for 107 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 2: the sort of short term that is what's holding people 108 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 2: back from making those big transactions. 109 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: So the wrap of this, Melbourne not so sure about 110 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: the next twelve months. Sydney will should keep expanding, but 111 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,119 Speaker 1: not probably at the pace of the Brisbane Adelaide purse, 112 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: and some of the regions will do pretty well. 113 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 2: Correct And you know what though, I think also Sydney 114 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 2: just becomes more and more unaffordable and people start looking 115 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 2: further afield because they just simply cannot afford to live 116 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 2: in that magical but very very expensive city. 117 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 1: Alice, thanks for your time. 118 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 2: Thanks Sean. 119 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: That was Alie Stoltz, National Property editor at Domain. Remember 120 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 1: to get your own independent advice before making investment decisions. 121 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: This is Fear and GREEDCE Summer Investing series brought to 122 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: you by Vanta. Vanta automates compliance for frameworks like ISO 123 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: twenty seven one, SoC two, CPS two three four and 124 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: Essential eight, saving time and money while building trust during 125 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: over eight thousand companies like at Lasian, Dovetail and fire Ant, 126 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: managing a real time risk hit one thousand dollars off 127 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: advantage dot com, slash, fear and greed. I'm Sean alma 128 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: Enjoy your day.