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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The head of the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank and the boss of the National Australia Bank worn

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Speaker 1: about a Trump administration. The Chemist Warehouse twenty nine billion

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Speaker 1: dollar merger with Sigma Pharmaceutical gets a triple C approval,

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Speaker 1: and the federal government is pushing to ban social media

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Speaker 1: for anyone under sixteen years of age. Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It's Friday, the eighth of November twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: I'm Adam Lang and good morning Sean Ailmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Adam, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning in what has been a

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Speaker 1: massive week. The head of the Reserve Bank and the

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Speaker 1: boss of National Australia Bank have warned of trade wars

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Speaker 1: hurting Australia's growth as a result of the election of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump as the next US president.

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Speaker 2: National Australia Bank Chief Executive Andrew Irvine talked about adverse

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Speaker 2: effects on the local economy from tariffs emanating from a

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Speaker 2: trade war between the US and China. Donald Trump, of course,

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Speaker 2: has suggested he might put sixty percent tariffs on Chinese

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Speaker 2: imports and up to twenty percent tariffs on other imports,

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Speaker 2: including from Australia. Australian exports about twenty two billion dollars

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Speaker 2: worth of goods to the US. Beef, gold, and pharmaceutical

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Speaker 2: products are among some of the larger exports that we

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Speaker 2: have with them. Andrew Irvine also warned of higher for

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Speaker 2: longer inflation and higher US interest rates. Bond markets have

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Speaker 2: already priced that in. He expects to see tax cuts

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Speaker 2: and a reduction in red tape that should be good

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Speaker 2: for economic growth in the US now. The Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: Governor Michelle Bullock said her initial failing is that a

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Speaker 2: ten percent tariff on all training partners won't have too

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Speaker 2: much impact. However, if Donald Trump does more than that,

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Speaker 2: then it is more likely to hit the local economy.

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Speaker 2: She didn't really have a view on what it means

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Speaker 2: for interest rates. The Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Chris Kent

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Speaker 2: he said large tariffs on China may have an adverse

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Speaker 2: effect on Australia General Agreement. I would say, Adam, no

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Speaker 2: one fully knows what a Trump government means for trade

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Speaker 2: wars and Australia Sean.

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Speaker 1: Apart from that, very sincere watching brief, what's the latest

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Speaker 1: on the US election counting and what has the response been.

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Speaker 2: So Yesterday morning, Australian Tom KRMLA Harris conceded defeat but

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Speaker 2: said she would never give up for the fight for democracy.

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Speaker 2: Republicans have won the White House, They've won the Senate.

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Speaker 2: The House of Reps is still up for grabs. That's

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Speaker 2: very important because Congress can block some of Trump's plans,

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Speaker 2: but not all of them. For example, if he wants

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Speaker 2: to lower the corporate tax rate, he has to get

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Speaker 2: through Congress, which is the House of Reps and the Senate. Hence,

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Speaker 2: if you have the Democrats with the balance of power

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Speaker 2: in the House of Reps, much harder for him to

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Speaker 2: do that. There are other things like increased tariffs. Well,

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Speaker 2: he basically has presidential powers to do that, So that

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Speaker 2: fight for the House of Reps is very important. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's also on track to win the popular vote. When

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Speaker 2: all votes are counted, He's likely to win about three

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Speaker 2: hundred and twelve Electoral College votes to Harris's two hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty six. According to The New York Times, Trump

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Speaker 2: won white working class votes, which used to be Democratic territory.

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Speaker 2: He also made gains in suburbs and cities and with

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Speaker 2: black and Latino voters.

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Speaker 1: Sean Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi was on the phone very

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Speaker 1: quickly calling President elect Trump to congratulate him.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's surprising. I mean, the US is Australia's closest

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Speaker 2: military all I we have the Orchest deal worth tens

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Speaker 2: of billions of dollars running around, so we certainly want

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Speaker 2: to be on side with whoever is in the White House.

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Speaker 2: Missterra Abanezi said the two spoke about the importance of

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Speaker 2: the alliance and the relationship's strength in security orcus trade

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Speaker 2: and investment. He also refused to apologize for disparaging marks

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Speaker 2: that he made about mister Trump in twenty seventeen, said

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Speaker 2: Australia's Ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, had his full support.

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Speaker 2: Now remember I'd previously called Trump the most destructive president

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Speaker 2: in history. He's been scamping ever since.

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Speaker 1: And sewn financial markets really like the result.

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Speaker 2: Sure did. The major equity indictries on Wall Street all

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Speaker 2: hit record highs yesterday. A lower corporate tax rate, less regulation,

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Speaker 2: both Trump promises, does wonders for the bottom line. In fact,

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Speaker 2: yesterday was the largest election day rally in history, with

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Speaker 2: SMP five hundred up about two and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: Tesla's share price jumped fifteen percent to its highest level

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Speaker 2: in two years. They're on mask a very big support

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Speaker 2: of Donald Trump. The banks also did well. US bond

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Speaker 2: yield surge. That's on that higher rates for longer theme

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Speaker 2: that helped the US dollar jump. The Aussie dollar at

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Speaker 2: sixty six US says has actually done pretty well, hasn't

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Speaker 2: been sold off too much. Bitcoin hit a new high

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Speaker 2: of above seventy six thousand US dollars a year now.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump he wants the US to be the crypto

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Speaker 2: capital of the planet, is how he put it. He

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Speaker 2: also talked about something called a strategic reserve of cryptos,

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Speaker 2: whatever that actually means. God prices tumbel more than five percent.

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Speaker 2: Local investors weren't quite as enement with the result. The

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Speaker 2: s and PA six two hundred actually started down yesterday.

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Speaker 2: It finished up a bit zero point three percent to

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Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty six two hundred and twenty six points.

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Speaker 2: Adam readist investment trusts were hardest hit, as worthy gold.

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Speaker 1: Stocks sewan immediately after the show. We want everyone to

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Speaker 1: stay listening for your chat with Michael McCarthy from Moomoo.

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Speaker 2: That's right, all about the industry value chain. So it's

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Speaker 2: the idea that you can buy a stock in a

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Speaker 2: mega trend or in a trend area like end Video

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Speaker 2: and Michael Chips for example, so you can get into

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Speaker 2: that trend without having to buy end Video. Basically, if

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Speaker 2: you go up and down the value chain, there may

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Speaker 2: be other opportunities. It's a great chat about finding opportunities

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Speaker 2: to invest in some of these mega trends.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sewn National Australia Bank has reported

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Speaker 1: an eight percent drop in annual cash profit to seven

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Speaker 1: point one billion, and said Australian borrowers have entered the

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Speaker 1: toughest part of the economic cycle.

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Speaker 2: The result was pretty much as expected. The dividend was

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Speaker 2: a touch high. The share price fell quite sharply before

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Speaker 2: recovering somewhat to end. About flat areas now that's the

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Speaker 2: loan areas whereby repayments aren't keeping up well, they jump

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Speaker 2: to their high nast point since twenty twenty. That was

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Speaker 2: probably the thing that people didn't like about the result. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: CEO Andrew Irvine said there were more bad loans as

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Speaker 2: businesses and consumers grapple with higher interest rates. NAB actually

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Speaker 2: stepped back from the mortgage wars in the last twelve

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Speaker 2: months or so it got very competitive. Rather than lose margin,

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Speaker 2: National Australia Bank decided to step back from it that

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Speaker 2: consumer banks suffered as a result. Mister Irvine said that

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Speaker 2: competition of the mortgage market isn't as fierce as it

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Speaker 2: was previously, so they are back growing at about the

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Speaker 2: market rate. NAB's net interest margin difference between what it

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Speaker 2: pays on deposits and receives on loans was down three

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Speaker 2: basis points.

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Speaker 1: Adam Sean Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock was in front

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Speaker 1: of Senate Estimates yesterday. Apart from her comments on the

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Speaker 1: US election, what else did she have to say?

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Speaker 2: Well, she said that real incomes should recover in the

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Speaker 2: months ahead, Wages growth should outpace inflation and that should

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Speaker 2: help people. She also talked about inflation causing the cost

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Speaker 2: of living crimes. Nothing else, of course, the inference there

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Speaker 2: meaning you really have to defeat inflation if you want

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Speaker 2: to get things back on track. The government is aware.

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Speaker 2: She said that fiscal and monetary policies have to work together.

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Speaker 2: Of course, there's been a lot of criticism about governments

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Speaker 2: spending too much, hence making the reserve banks job harder.

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Speaker 2: She said. The government, and she was talking about the

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Speaker 2: federal government, seems to have the right attitude at the moment.

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Speaker 2: So I suppose in a failed way a tick of

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Speaker 2: approval for the government from Michelle Bullock.

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Speaker 1: Sure and the Competition Regulator has given the go ahead

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Speaker 1: to the merger of Chemist Warehouse and Sigma Pharmaceutical.

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Speaker 2: Yes, this is a big one. It's very, very big

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Speaker 2: step towards creating a twenty nine billion dollar share market

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Speaker 2: giant that's bigger than Cole's for example. It means Sigma

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Speaker 2: the pharmacy, wholesale and retailer. We will merge with the

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Speaker 2: number one retailer, Chemist Warehouse. Sigma has had to make concessions.

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Speaker 2: It's provided an exit path for franchises in the network.

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Speaker 2: There's also a restriction on the use of data. This

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Speaker 2: dey looks like it's going to get the go ahead.

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Speaker 2: Sigma share price yesterday was up twenty four percent.

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Speaker 1: Sean, just to add to the mixed Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 1: Albanizi will consult with the National Cabinet today about banning

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Speaker 1: social media for children under the age of sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Please they don't have anyone under the age of sixteen anymore,

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Speaker 2: because I think there'll be a very very hard one

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Speaker 2: to implement anyway. The e Safety Commissioner she will oversee

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Speaker 2: the ban. That'll be her job. The Prime Minister wants

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Speaker 2: social media companies to enforce the ban. He agrees that

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Speaker 2: the policy won't get one hundred percent outcome, but he's

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Speaker 2: not keen on exemptions based on parental consent either. Basically,

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Speaker 2: under sixteen year olds won't be able to hold an account.

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Speaker 2: We're talking Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, Snapchat, all those ones you have, Adam.

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Speaker 2: Social media companies, parents and children could face penalties if

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Speaker 2: they don't comply.

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Speaker 1: Sean, you've mentioned how the local market did yesterday. There

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Speaker 1: are also plenty of profit updates, including Westfield Operator Center,

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Speaker 1: which reaffirmed its earnings guidance.

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Speaker 2: Yes so, sales in Maure's came in about forty nine

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Speaker 2: billion dollars for the year ended September, occupancy of ninety

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Speaker 2: nine point four percent. Whatever happened to the cab of days?

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Speaker 2: Remember that you know shops are closing down. Mall to

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Speaker 2: doing really well. Health insurer NIV posted a mixed start

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Speaker 2: to the new financial year. Premium revenues in its Australian

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Speaker 2: Residents Health insurance unit are much higher, but so are

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Speaker 2: costs of medical and allied treatments and services and by

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Speaker 2: now pay later Grip Zipco it announced a big jump

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Speaker 2: in cash earnings for the September quarter. This is the

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Speaker 2: company that's up six hundred and sixty percent over the

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Speaker 2: last year.

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Speaker 1: Incredible and sean, we are well and truly in AGM season.

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Speaker 1: Seven West chair Kerry Stokes came out fighting yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Yep. He had a crack at ovca's based streaming platforms

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Speaker 2: for not paying taxes and on had a government for

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Speaker 2: setting what he called unnecessary roadblocks. Seven West trading updates

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Speaker 2: suggested a drop and profit this half year, but it's

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Speaker 2: share price closed up a bit. Nine Entertainment share price

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Speaker 2: for one percent. Af Terrip provided a training update basically.

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Speaker 2: The first court revenue was higher thanks to the Olympics,

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Speaker 2: but conditions remained tough. For the second quarter, earnings expect

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Speaker 2: to be lower again. That came as that group's biggest

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Speaker 2: radio personality, Ray Hadlee, a good friend of yours. Adam,

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Speaker 2: said he was quitting his show on two GB and

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Speaker 2: four BC after Oh, I think it's almost forty years

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Speaker 2: in the game, twenty years of rating wins like one

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty surveys in a row, phenomenal. The other

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Speaker 2: one Bendigobank. It had its AGM, the message prioritized digital

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Speaker 2: transformation that keep branches open.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, congratulations Roy Hadley on an immense career. But Shawn

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Speaker 1: back to the report. The Corporate Regulator has confirmed it

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Speaker 1: has commenced a formal investigation into MinRes amid the scandal

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Speaker 1: surrounding the ASX listed miners boss Chris Ellison.

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Speaker 2: MinRes Adam, you're sounding like me Mineral Resources. I'm very

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Speaker 2: impressed anyway. Appearing before a Senate Estimates Committee yesterday, Assex

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Speaker 2: Deputy Chairs Sarah Court said the regulator had now opened

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Speaker 2: a formal probe into the company, but noted investigations remained

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Speaker 2: at a very early stage. She told parliament ASSET was

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Speaker 2: examining some allegations and had engaged with the ATO after

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Speaker 2: tax off cut a piece deal with mister Ellison over

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Speaker 2: millions of dollars in unpaid taxes.

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Speaker 1: Sean. Moving into international news, the global temperature rise is

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Speaker 1: expected to hit an average of one point five to

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Speaker 1: five degrees celsius above pre industrial levels this year, making

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Speaker 1: it virtually certain to be the warmest on record.

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Speaker 2: The latest data from the European Union Earth Observation Agency,

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Speaker 2: reported in the Financial Times, says the forecast rise this

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Speaker 2: year compares with the climb of one point four eight

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Speaker 2: degrees celsius in twenty twenty three, and it breaches the

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Speaker 2: ideal goal of more than one and a half degree

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Speaker 2: celsius one point five degrees celsius that's enshrined in the

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Speaker 2: Paris Climate Agreement. Last month was the second warmest October

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Speaker 2: on record, and the fifteenth in a sixteen month period

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Speaker 2: for which the global average exceeded one and a half

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Speaker 2: degree celsius above pre industrial levels. The average sea surface

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Speaker 2: temperature hit twenty point six to eight degrees celsius, the

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Speaker 2: second highest value on record for October. It comes ahead

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Speaker 2: of next week's un COP twenty nine summit, and, of course,

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Speaker 2: as global leaders ponder what a Trump administration means for

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Speaker 2: the climate change world.

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Speaker 1: Sean on this one, the trend is not our friend

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Speaker 1: staying with the US. It isn't the only major economy

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Speaker 1: in election mode.

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Speaker 2: Certainly isn't Germany's coalition and government has pretty much collapsed

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Speaker 2: after Chancellor Olive Schultz sacked his finance minister. Mister Schultz

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Speaker 2: expects to lose a confidence vote, though that's not going

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Speaker 2: to be held till January fifteenth. What I was reading

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Speaker 2: saying that means a snap election in March. Well, given

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Speaker 2: a we're in November, don't reckon it's a snappole when

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Speaker 2: it's not going to happen till March. Anyway. If you

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Speaker 2: want to know what a snappole's about, go to Ireland,

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Speaker 2: because it's thirty eight year old Prime Minister Simon Harris

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Speaker 2: has called an election for twenty nine November, three weeks.

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Speaker 2: That's what I call a snappole. He's seeking a record

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Speaker 2: fourth term for his Conservative Fingael Party.

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Speaker 1: Sean Up next is the Film and Greed Daily interview

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Speaker 1: with Michael McCarthy from Boomoo. Also remember another edition of

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Speaker 1: Ask Fear and Greed is out at noon today.

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Speaker 2: That sure is, and this question it did come in

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago, but it's very relevant. It's

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Speaker 2: what does a Trump presidency mean for the Australian economy?

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Speaker 2: So we tack that one at noon today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, plenty of that one Sean, that's up next in

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Speaker 1: the Fie and Greed playlist on your favorite podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fiirngreed dot com dot au. Thank you Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thank you Adam. It's Friday, the eighth of November twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast, Join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook, and have

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Speaker 1: a great day.