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Speaker 1: Wage pressures remain while inflation appears to be dissipating in

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Speaker 1: other parts of the economy. A mixed bag of profit

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Speaker 1: results on the ASX two hundred and Elon Musk hosts

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Speaker 1: a rally for Donald Trump on X Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It is Wednesday, the fourteenth of August twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning mixed news on the inflation front.

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Speaker 1: Price pressures in the Australian economy are easing, with supply

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Speaker 1: and demand moving towards balance, according to the latest NAB

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Speaker 1: monthly Business Survey. But at the same time you got

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Speaker 1: wage pressures remaining elevated working against price disinflation.

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Speaker 2: It is very difficult to determine exactly what is going

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Speaker 2: on at the moment, which is part of the reason

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Speaker 2: that the Reserve Bank is resisting calls to lower rate

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Speaker 2: anytime soon. First to the National Australian Bank July survey,

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Speaker 2: it shows that labour cost growth rose two and a

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Speaker 2: half percent from one and a half percent in June,

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Speaker 2: but purchase cost growth eased to one point one percent

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Speaker 2: from one point three percent. Retail price growth also fell

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Speaker 2: to zero point nine percent from one point three percent.

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Speaker 2: That's a fairly sharp drop. Overall, business conditions rose one

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Speaker 2: point toy six index points. That's the first rise in

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Speaker 2: five months. It's slightly blow the long average though. Business

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Speaker 2: confidence fell two points, with falls across all industries other

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Speaker 2: than construction and recreation and personal services. Now. National Australia

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Speaker 2: Bank twof economist Allen Osta said the survey suggests robust

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Speaker 2: jobs growth is continuing for now, but below average trading

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Speaker 2: conditions and profits remain a real concern. The bottom line

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Speaker 2: is that price pressures are It's not right to say

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Speaker 2: they're coming out, they're just lesting in the economy according

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Speaker 2: to the NAB survey. Then we get the Australian Bureau

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Speaker 2: Statistics Wage price Index. It shows a zero point eight

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Speaker 2: percent rise in the last quarter. Then we get the

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Speaker 2: Australian Bureau of Statistics Wage price Index. It shows a

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Speaker 2: zero point eight percent rise in the June quarter, below

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Speaker 2: the zero point nine percent rise in the March quarter.

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Speaker 2: The annual rate to the end of June came in

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Speaker 2: at four point one percent. Slightly above the Reserve Bank's

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Speaker 2: forecast to four percent. Now, the wage price index has

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Speaker 2: now been at or above four percent for about a year.

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Speaker 2: What's that mean? Well, the Reserve Bank reckons wages at

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Speaker 2: this level are unsustainable without productivity growth, and it expects

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Speaker 2: the wage price index to remain relatively high given it's

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Speaker 2: hard to find suitable labor that feeds into services inflation

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Speaker 2: which is proving very tough to defeat. So two very

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Speaker 2: conflicting pieces of information on what's going on in the economy.

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Speaker 1: Yesterday, as sean, there was also consumer sentiment measures out yesterday. Now,

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Speaker 1: you've gone on the record in the past describing we

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Speaker 1: humble consumers as a miserable bunch. I believe was the

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Speaker 1: exact ters, yes, that you have used to describe us

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Speaker 1: all our consumers. Are we still pessimistic? Ah?

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Speaker 2: Yes, still a miserable bunch out there, really, although although

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Speaker 2: less so after the recent tax cuts. The Westpac Melbourne

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Speaker 2: Institute Consumer Sentiment index in August rose nearly three percent.

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Speaker 2: Good news, but it remains at week levels by historical standards.

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Speaker 2: Views on family finances bounced back and was nearly twelve

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Speaker 2: cent higher than a year ago. Now, the actual monthly

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Speaker 2: shift in that is the largest in nine years if

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Speaker 2: you exclude the COVID period. The survey also shows that

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Speaker 2: rate rise fears have subsided and people are relatively untroubled

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Speaker 2: about the outlook for jobs. Around housing. Home buying sentiments

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Speaker 2: sent back to new lows, however, but consumers price expectations cool.

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Speaker 2: The touch good news. We'll find out more about exactly

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Speaker 2: what's going on today when the July labor force stats

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Speaker 2: are released. But when you have turning points in an economy,

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Speaker 2: it is very hard to read what's happening, whether inflation

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Speaker 2: is coming off quickly or not. But I mean, I

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Speaker 2: suppose that's kind of what we pay the economists for,

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Speaker 2: even if the Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reckons

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Speaker 2: that they're not much chop at times. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: That was a terrific quote, wasn't it from Andrew Hauser?

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Speaker 1: And you talked about it yesterday on the show where

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Speaker 1: he walked into a room full of economists and proceeded

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Speaker 1: to well, not have a crack, Yeah, have a crack

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Speaker 1: at at economists who make what overly firm predictions.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, I think you just didn't like the way

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Speaker 2: that they were so firm in what they were.

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Speaker 1: Saying, especially when a lot of the data suggests that

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Speaker 1: things are not as kind of certain as some economists

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Speaker 1: are making it out to be. I'm guessing that this

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Speaker 1: may be a topic that you tee off on perhaps

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Speaker 1: in the newsletter. Certainly gets a run, no doubt about it.

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Speaker 1: The Fear and Greed newsletter is out every Wednesday, so

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Speaker 1: it's out in a few hours time. If you haven't

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Speaker 1: signed up already, head along to Fearangreed dot com dot

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Speaker 1: are you pop your email address in and you will

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Speaker 1: receive Sean's views on a whole bunch of topics, not

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Speaker 1: just this one, and also Sean a fantastic video. I'll

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Speaker 1: mention that one a bit later. On local markets, how

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Speaker 1: do they perform yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Yes, and p ASX two hundred closed, oh up, just

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Speaker 2: to touched thero point two percent to seven eight hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty eight points. Profit results really dominated proceedings broadly.

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Speaker 2: The financials did best and the healthcare index did worst.

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Speaker 2: That's all about CSL. More on that shortly outside the

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Speaker 2: company's reporting yesterday, AAN zed and Commwealth Bank led the way,

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Speaker 2: both jumping more than one and a half percent. Westpac

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Speaker 2: rose one percent, as did West Farmers and Goodman Group.

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Speaker 2: Well John Santos was another strong performer. Fortescu and Weis

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Speaker 2: Tech Global were among the laggards. What about international markets,

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Speaker 2: Roil prices have fallen back a touch, with Brent futures

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Speaker 2: trading below eighty US dollars, a barrel goals run continues,

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Speaker 2: the precious metal is back up to twenty four to

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Speaker 2: sixty US dollars. Announce there was he dollars trading at

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Speaker 2: just under sixty six US cents. I could have said

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Speaker 2: that same sentence, I think for the last five days,

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Speaker 2: really no one, none the two for us.

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Speaker 1: We're just start copying and pasting that part of the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Cryptota is kind of interesting, I mean not hugely, but

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Speaker 2: they're continuing their slow recovery after a big sell off

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. Bitcoin is trading over fifty

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Speaker 2: nine thousand US dollars a unit, heading back towards that

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Speaker 2: sixty thousand US dollars a unit mark.

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Speaker 1: And just a quick mention, Sean of the interview that

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Speaker 1: you have coming up after the show, you're speaking today

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Speaker 1: with Sue Lee Saw, the general manager of Policy and

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Speaker 1: Media at the Australian Information Industry Association.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all about the state of the labor market,

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Speaker 2: particularly in the tech sector, and just the fact that

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Speaker 2: people who are being trained in technology graduate programs are

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Speaker 2: leaving their educational experience entering the workforce not fully prepared

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Speaker 2: for their jobs. The idea being that they need six

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Speaker 2: to nine months on the job training before they become

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Speaker 2: kind of up to speed on what they're doing. It's

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Speaker 2: not unique to technology. I mean many of us leave

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Speaker 2: university and have absolutely when I first started as a

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Speaker 2: journalist or my word, I had no idea what I

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Speaker 2: was doing. So, you know, it's not just the tech stocks,

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Speaker 2: but it is a really fascinating sector because we need

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Speaker 2: people in that industry and we need them fast, particularly

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Speaker 2: around cyber and artificial intelligence. So we talk to Lee

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Speaker 2: all about that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good chat. It is coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show, Sean. We will be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean. Australia's

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Speaker 1: third largest company CSL expects a doubling of earnings growth

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Speaker 1: over the next five years as its core plasma collection

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Speaker 1: business finally recovers from the COVID pandemic.

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Speaker 2: However, its vaccine and pharmaceutical operations will not grow as

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Speaker 2: fast in the near term now. According to chief executive

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Speaker 2: Paul McKenzie, revenue was higher over the past financial year,

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Speaker 2: but unfortunately operating costs were high as well, and that

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Speaker 2: triggered a four and a half percent soe off in

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Speaker 2: the stock. CSL's net profit fifteen percent to just over

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Speaker 2: three billion US dollars for the last financial year. McKenzie

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Speaker 2: forecast to ten to thirteen percent rise for this financial year.

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Speaker 2: Its main business is plasma collection that was badly disrupted

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Speaker 2: by the pandemic. CSL said collection rates are now on

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Speaker 2: course to head back above the pre pandemic levels. It's

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Speaker 2: seeking to drive down costs and return margins in its

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Speaker 2: core business back to more applicable suitable levels, should we say.

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Speaker 2: CSL share price has moved around a fair bit of

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Speaker 2: the past five years. It's currently down about twelve percent

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Speaker 2: compared to its highs of early twenty twenty. It's an

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Speaker 2: interesting stock because people loved holding CSL and traded at

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Speaker 2: a premium to many other companies on the share market.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of been rerated by analysts, so just really

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Speaker 2: has struggled to break out of a range for a

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Speaker 2: few years now, Shawn.

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Speaker 1: The federal government has resisted growing calls to impose a

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Speaker 1: full ban on gambling advertising, despite admitting that it can

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Speaker 1: cause quote serious harm to the community.

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Speaker 2: Labors expect to compose a partial ban, capping the number

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Speaker 2: of ads on television, according to media reports. In response

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Speaker 2: to growing pressure to implement the band, Health Minister Mark

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Speaker 2: Butler said that gambling is a service available in the

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Speaker 2: community that consumed and enjoyed responsibly and in moderation can

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Speaker 2: lead to no harm, but used to excess used in

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Speaker 2: a problematic way, well, it can cause real harm. And

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Speaker 2: previously an inquiry led by the late Labour MP Peter

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Speaker 2: Murphy called for a full ban of ads. Independent Senator

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Speaker 2: David Pocock Yes, they said, a partial band on gambling

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Speaker 2: ads is a betrayal of Mss Murphy's legacy, while Independent

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Speaker 2: MP Sophie Scamps asked why the government won't support a

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Speaker 2: full band despite irrefutable evidence it affects young people's mental health.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be an issue that we're going

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Speaker 2: to heed lots more about, particularly in the run up

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Speaker 2: to the election. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, Now, this is an interesting one. Paul Keating and

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Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi have traded barbes over the status of Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: with the former United States House Speaker saying Keating's description

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Speaker 1: over the self governing Ireland as Chinese real estate was

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Speaker 1: a stupid statement.

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Speaker 2: Yes, getting these two out each other. I think that's

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Speaker 2: just fun, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't have expected these two to be kind of

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Speaker 1: going at it, but it is fantastic because they both

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Speaker 1: know how to kind of frame a barb Yeah, the both.

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Speaker 2: Eldest statesman Keeping obviously of the Labor Party in Australia

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Speaker 2: and Pelosi the House Speaker. She's kind of the elder

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Speaker 2: statesman of the Democrats in the US and played a

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Speaker 2: pivotal role in what happened with Joe Biden Carmla Harris

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Speaker 2: in fact, so what happened basically forming a labor Priment's

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Speaker 2: the hit back yesterday, declaring Pelosi had been recklessly indulgent

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Speaker 2: and brought the US and China close to war by

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Speaker 2: visiting Taiwan a couple of years ago, according to a

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Speaker 2: report in the Sydney Morning Herald. Now, in an interview

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Speaker 2: on the ABC seventy to thirty program last week, Keeping

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Speaker 2: down played concerns about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, saying

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Speaker 2: the island was Chinese real estate. Pelosi responded, also one

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Speaker 2: seven thirty, and I quote, you don't want to get

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Speaker 2: my description of him for saying that. That's ridiculous. It

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Speaker 2: is not Chinese real estate, and he should know that

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Speaker 2: Taiwan is Taiwan, and it is the people of Taiwan

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Speaker 2: whoever democracy there. I think that that was a stupid statement.

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Speaker 2: There you go say it as you think.

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Speaker 1: And meanwhile, if you're the producers of seven thirty, you're

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Speaker 1: just there just rubbing hands together. This is playing out

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Speaker 1: live on TV. That is incredible. Now. Online retail at

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Speaker 1: Temple and Webster's share price jumped twenty three percent yesterday

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Speaker 1: after delivering record annual sales.

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Speaker 2: Sales last year jumped twenty six percent to nearly half

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Speaker 2: a billion dollars, though the net profit was just one

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Speaker 2: point eight million dollars that reflected a one off cost

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Speaker 2: involved in the rite down of Israeli investment. For the

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Speaker 2: first five weeks of this year, trading was up twenty

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Speaker 2: six percent, seemingly defying the cost of living crisis. Chief

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Speaker 2: executive and co founder Mark Coulter said repeat customers now

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Speaker 2: make up fifty seven percent of all orders, and tools

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Speaker 2: such as augmented reality and virtual reality that tests the size,

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Speaker 2: look of products, and better shopping and returns were proving

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Speaker 2: successful with shoppers. Temple and Webster sells more than two

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand products now hundreds of supplies involved, many of

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Speaker 2: which A ship directly to customers, enabling faster delivery times

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Speaker 2: and reducing the need to hold infantry. Michael It's private

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Speaker 2: label brand now generates around thirty percent of group sales.

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Speaker 2: Quite incredible.

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Speaker 1: That is actually very high. And you've been talking about

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Speaker 1: Temple and Webster for years. You kind of helped prop

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Speaker 1: them up during the pandemic. Every second week you were

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Speaker 1: talking about something else that you'd ordered.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Jackie did a very good job propping them up

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Speaker 2: during the pandemic. But she and I were only, you know,

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Speaker 2: a couple among thousands of couples who bought staff at

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Speaker 2: Temple and website. Their share price went through the rift,

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Speaker 2: then they took a dive. It seems to have come

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Speaker 2: through that quite well though.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, now online jobs group seeks share price tumbled

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Speaker 1: six point six percent yesterday after a significant reduction in

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Speaker 1: job ad volumes across Australia, along with an impairment of

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Speaker 1: its investment Ininese groups. Jao Pin pushed the group's full

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Speaker 1: the air earnings to a loss.

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Speaker 2: Chief executive in Narevat didn't have a lot of good

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Speaker 2: news for shareholders, saying the economic situation would wig further

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Speaker 2: on the company this financial year amid higher unemployment and

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Speaker 2: less demand for hiring. He said, based on economists forecasts,

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Speaker 2: Sikh has assumed paid ad volumes will continue to fall

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five. Revenue last financial year fell seventeen percent,

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Speaker 2: while just a net profit film more than forty percent now.

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Speaker 2: Seat previously has announced that impairment charge on show Pin

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Speaker 2: was worth about one hundred and forty one million dollars.

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Speaker 1: The Australian housing market is proving a bit of a

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Speaker 1: tough play for plasterboard maker James Hardy, compounding the impact

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Speaker 1: of rising wages and freight charges for the group not

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Speaker 1: a lot going right.

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Speaker 2: Hardy's share price fell three percent yesterday after it said

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Speaker 2: pretax earnings in its Asia Pacific division, which is mostly Australia,

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Speaker 2: had dropped eleven percent in the Dune quarter. The reason

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Speaker 2: rising costs in high property prices are deterringential renovators. The

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Speaker 2: group's net profit was up two percent for the three

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Speaker 2: month period. That's a cross the whole group, thanks to

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Speaker 2: its good performance in North America that makes up about

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Speaker 2: seventy percent of Hardy's revenue.

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Speaker 1: Packaging giant Aurora has rejected a three point four billion

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Speaker 1: dollar takeover offer from US private equity group lone Star

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Speaker 1: Fund twelve Acquisitions and sewn there aren't enough funds that

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Speaker 1: have Roman numerals in their names.

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Speaker 2: No lone Star Fund twelve acquisitions. You know, a three

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Speaker 2: point four million takeover off would often lead an episode

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Speaker 2: of fear and greed. I reckon this didn't quite make

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Speaker 2: the grade, just because so much is going on.

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Speaker 1: It's a busy week.

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Speaker 2: So Aurora, which reports its earnings today, said the bid

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Speaker 2: was opportunistic, conditional, and non binding, but that didn't stop

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Speaker 2: the group's share price jumping nineteen percent yesterday best on

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Speaker 2: the ASX two hundred to two dollars twenty seven. Now

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Speaker 2: the BID's priced at two dollars fifty five per share,

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Speaker 2: less any dividends declared or payable. We'll know more about

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Speaker 2: that today after the earnings are out. That means that

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Speaker 2: that share price now is probably less than the bid price.

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Speaker 2: But clearly Aurora is in play. The border of Aurora

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Speaker 2: yesterday to the bid undervalue the company, but this one

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Speaker 2: ain't know that yet.

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Speaker 1: I just love the lack of creativity that has gone

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Speaker 1: into naming these funds. Because that is loan Star's twelfth

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Speaker 1: opportunity fund. So assuming, following that logic, that the other

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Speaker 1: twelve lone Star fund one through eleven. Hm, possibly, it's

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Speaker 1: like naming all of your kids the same thing.

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Speaker 2: I perceive. It's a Texas based fund, so they's got

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Speaker 2: a little bit of creativity in the lone star Yeah,

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Speaker 2: because that's a lone star state. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, anyway, bring back Roman Numerals. Annuity and Funds manager

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Speaker 1: Challenger Sean said it is selling record numbers of retirement

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Speaker 1: products as retirees and pre retirees worry about cost of

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Speaker 1: living pressures.

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Speaker 2: Don't say it. I know you're going to have a

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Speaker 2: go at me for this while I'm writing about this story. Yep, Challenger. Yes,

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Speaker 2: and now it's a seventeen percent increase in profit last

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Speaker 2: financial year thanks to a doubling of sales of its

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Speaker 2: annuity products. Now newities provided said income for anywhere between

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Speaker 2: about two I don't think you can give shorter than

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Speaker 2: two years, but basically for the rest of your life

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Speaker 2: if you want. The surge has come in annuities linked

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Speaker 2: to inflation. Not surprising there, given that inflation has been

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Speaker 2: rising now. The increase in interest rates in recent years

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Speaker 2: has made selling an annuity much much more attractive. Chief

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Speaker 2: executive Nick Hamilton said the funds management business reported an

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Speaker 2: eleven percent drop in underlying earnings, even though Funds under

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Speaker 2: Management rose challengeses share price closed up six and a

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Speaker 2: half cent yesterday, one of the best of the top

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Speaker 2: two hundred.

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Speaker 1: I've never thought of you as a pre retiree before, Sean,

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Speaker 1: until you kind of led me to that point.

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Speaker 2: Just then, well, if I'm a decade away, is that

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Speaker 2: pre retiree or not? Surely, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I suppose to a young person like me. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: just quite broad like anyone over that certain age, your age,

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Speaker 1: I'm assuming pre retire you're on the cuspout.

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Speaker 2: Anyone over forty is pre retire d that's right.

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Speaker 1: I'm inching closer to pre retiree status myself in that case.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news, now, Elon Musk wants a job

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Speaker 1: inside Donald Trump's White House. After the Tesla billionaire and

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Speaker 1: Republican nominee for presidency held what can only be described

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Speaker 1: as a bit of a love in on X yesterday.

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Speaker 2: I think so. Mister Musk pitched himself as the man

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Speaker 2: to cut federal spending in a discussion on X, a

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Speaker 2: platform that actually rejected mister Trump when it was Twitter,

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Speaker 2: only to allow him back on when mister Musk bought it.

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Speaker 2: Could you imagine Elon Musk cutting costs? I mean when

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Speaker 2: he went into Twitter as it was known then, he

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Speaker 2: just wiped out half the staff.

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Speaker 1: He sacked everyone.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't a lot of discussion. It was quite funny

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Speaker 2: because the event was delayed for forty minutes, which mister

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Speaker 2: Musk blamed on a cyber attack, and then when they

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Speaker 2: were on air, he kind of alluded to the cyber

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Speaker 2: attack coming from trump enemies. Now absolutely no evidence of

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Speaker 2: that whatsoever. The conversation included the risk of World War

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Speaker 2: III and mister Trump's desire for the US to have

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Speaker 2: an iron dome similar to Israel's. He called Krmla Harris.

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Speaker 2: Actually he didn't call Carmela Harris. I think he said

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Speaker 2: Kamala or something Kamale misused her name Kamala Harris, a

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Speaker 2: third rate phony candidate. Mister Musk endorsed mister Trump for

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Speaker 2: president last month, part of a shift that's seen the

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Speaker 2: Tesla and SpaceX chief executive officer publicly embracing right leaning

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Speaker 2: causes and candidates. He's advised mister Trump on electric vehicles

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Speaker 2: and cryptocurrency policy, which is a reversal from a once

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Speaker 2: rocky relationship that saw the two trade insults, highlighting mister

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Speaker 2: Musk's growing sway with mister Trump. The former president, long

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Speaker 2: a critic of electric vehicles, praised the EVU makers, saying

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Speaker 2: Tesla's cars are incredible.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of just how incredible those cars are. Sure, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to include in today's Fear and Green newsletter

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Speaker 1: bit of a throwback video. It's a couple of years

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Speaker 1: old now, but it goes back to when one of

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Speaker 1: those vehicles was being demonstrated live on stage and things

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Speaker 1: did not go quite right for Elon Musk.

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Speaker 2: I know the video. It's fantastic.

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Speaker 1: It is a classic video. I will put a link

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Speaker 1: to it in today's newsletter head along to Fearangreed dot com,

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Speaker 1: dot au and sign up for the newsletter if you

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Speaker 1: haven't done so already, it'll be out in a few

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Speaker 1: hours time. Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily

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Speaker 1: interview with Cu le Ciao from the Australian Information Industry Association.

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Speaker 2: YEP, all about employment in the tech space and the

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Speaker 2: fact that graduates aren't really being fully prepared for the

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Speaker 2: jobs they're taking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 2: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the fourteenth of August twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online as well on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm off Will Thompson and that was Fear and Great.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.