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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The Reserve Bank Board meets

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Speaker 1: this week, with most economists expecting a rate cut tomorrow afternoon.

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Speaker 1: Why the regional property market is doing better than the

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Speaker 1: Capital city property market. And US Vice President JD. Vance

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Speaker 1: delivers a speech that leaves European allies reeling, plus households

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Speaker 1: upgrade their Internet speeds helping the NBN bottom line. And

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Speaker 1: China's silver trains for elderly tourists complete with marjong and

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Speaker 1: slow dancing. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news

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Speaker 1: for people who make their own decisions. It is Monday,

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Speaker 1: the seventeenth of February twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning Adam Lang. Good morning Michael, Adam The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning it is, of course, rate cut week,

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Speaker 1: with the Reserve Bank Board meeting today and tomorrow to

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Speaker 1: deliberate on whether Australians need their first interest rate cut

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Speaker 1: since November twenty twenty. The consensus among market economists, including

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Speaker 1: the chief of Coonomous of the big four banks, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of people saying this is that rates will

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Speaker 1: fall and all this is happening as the local share

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Speaker 1: market in the midst of earning season is trading around

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Speaker 1: record levels.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael, the evidence for a rate cut is growing.

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Speaker 2: Underlying inflation, which takes out the volatile items, is at

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Speaker 2: three point two percent per year and indicating to head lower.

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Speaker 2: The labor market still remains strong, but wage growth has

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Speaker 2: come off the boil a bit and that is lessening

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Speaker 2: expectations of the inflationary effects from higher wage costs. Now,

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Speaker 2: the economy itself, it's pretty weak and that's at best,

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Speaker 2: with the latest growth figures suggesting the economy is expanding

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Speaker 2: at less than one percent, and this was backed up

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Speaker 2: by Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Common last week who said

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Speaker 2: credit card and debit card data shows softness in parts

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Speaker 2: of the economy.

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Speaker 1: Adam as We said that there are a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: a lot of economists forecasting a rate cut tomorrow, but

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Speaker 1: it would be wrong to say that it's a done

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Speaker 1: deal because I've got services inflation still too high in

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Speaker 1: Australia to some parts of housing. Last week we had

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Speaker 1: US inflation figures ticking up again, demonstrating that the inflation

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Speaker 1: do we say we go The inflation genie isn't back

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Speaker 1: in the bottle. The inflation dragon has not yet been slaved.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. There's there are so many options here.

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Speaker 1: And also this is the last meeting of the RBA

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Speaker 1: Board as it is. After tomorrow it splits into two,

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Speaker 1: including one Interest rates setting Board, and that might just

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Speaker 1: play into the decision. All in all, people think that

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Speaker 1: there is going to be an interest rate cut tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: but I wouldn't bet my life on it.

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Speaker 2: No, but it might be the announcement that almost stops

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Speaker 2: the nation. Michael I reckon. Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi would

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Speaker 2: be holding his breath on this one. With an election

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Speaker 2: due by the middle of May, a rate cut would

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Speaker 2: be politically helpful, shall as we say, And you mentioned

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Speaker 2: the local share market, it seems investors are looking for

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Speaker 2: a rate cut too, which would help burnings. We are

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Speaker 2: in the middle of the December half profit reporting season

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Speaker 2: and there have been some good results from the likes

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Speaker 2: of Commonwealth Bank and JB hi Fi. But any company

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Speaker 2: that disappoints has been punished. Examples from just last week

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Speaker 2: were iag and Promedicus.

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Speaker 1: Yeah and Adam. We've got two interviews coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show. One of them is of course, Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed The Week Ahead, featuring our resident economist, Stephen could Coolis,

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Speaker 1: who was very very very excited about this week, and

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Speaker 1: there is a whole lot of additional data coming out

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Speaker 1: after the Reserve Bank Board meets as well, which just

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Speaker 1: adds a whole another layer of complication. So have a

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Speaker 1: listened to Stephen. He's coming up after this, and then

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Speaker 1: we've got an interview with Lachlan Halloway, who is the

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Speaker 1: equity market strategist at morning Star. He is talking about

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Speaker 1: the three trends of reporting seasons so far, what we've

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Speaker 1: learned from the first a week and a bit, and

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Speaker 1: also then what to expect coming up, and talked about

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Speaker 1: a whole lot of companies that are really keeping their

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Speaker 1: eye on. Some great listening coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: Local markets. Where did things finish up on Friday?

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Speaker 2: The S and PA six two hundred finish last week

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Speaker 2: and another record high Michael up zero point two percent

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Speaker 2: on Friday to eighty five hundred and fifty six points.

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Speaker 2: It was much higher early in the day with a

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Speaker 2: new intra day records set as well, and it was

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Speaker 2: a day for records with Commonwealth Banks share price hitting

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Speaker 2: a high during the day, but the bank ended up

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Speaker 2: closing down zero point five percent after share traders banked

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Speaker 2: some of those gains. The worst performers were two companies

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Speaker 2: that both reported results, that's AMP and Cochlear. The best

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Speaker 2: performance was from Sigma Healthcare, fresh from its merger with

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Speaker 2: Chemist Warehouse. The new pharmaceutical giant rose almost seven percent,

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Speaker 2: and that's just on Friday.

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Speaker 1: I know this is all very serious, Adam, but can

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Speaker 1: I tell you there is some exciting news, and this

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Speaker 1: is related to international markets, so I think I can

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Speaker 1: be excused for kind of just wedging it in here.

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Speaker 1: Exciting news for coffee lovers. Coffee prices are likely to

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Speaker 1: have peaked as demand starts to drop and supplies replenish,

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Speaker 1: and that's largely thanks to favorable weather and new producers

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Speaker 1: stepping up their output of beans. Arabic coffee prices have

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Speaker 1: been at an all time high according to City, but

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Speaker 1: they've had better weather patterns in Brazil, which is a

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Speaker 1: major producer that is helping things other countries upping exports.

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Speaker 1: So the much feared six dollar flat white, which Short

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Speaker 1: and I have discussed on this program many many times,

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Speaker 1: it's like it is just this thing that's hovering over

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Speaker 1: the horizon, a big dark cloud, it's not likely to

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Speaker 1: happen just yet.

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Speaker 2: Coffee prices are a matter of grave concern here at

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Speaker 2: Fier and Great House, Michael, as you know. And a

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Speaker 2: quick mention of the gold price is too, still very high,

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Speaker 2: but they dipped back below the US twenty nine hundred

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Speaker 2: dollar mark over the weekend. The Aussie dollar is currently

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Speaker 2: buying around sixty three and a half fe years since.

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Speaker 1: Adam, We've still have plenty more to come. We are

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Speaker 1: talking auction results. There's been a lot happening in federal

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Speaker 1: politics over the weekend, and that stunning speech by jd

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Speaker 1: Vance to Europe as well, that's having quite a few repercussions.

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Speaker 1: Plenty more to come. Don't go anywhere. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Adam.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but I'm starting to get

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Speaker 1: the sense that we are getting close to an election.

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Speaker 1: Opposition lead it away. Well, I'll tell you. You turn

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Speaker 1: on the TV over the weekend and you see a politician,

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Speaker 1: don't you. And oppositionally to Peter Dutton was one of

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Speaker 1: those out there over the weekend talking to is threatening

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Speaker 1: to break up the country's big insurers, claiming a lack

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Speaker 1: of competition in the market is making policies more expensive

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Speaker 1: for consumers. He has previously talked about the potential to

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Speaker 1: break up the big supermarket chains over competition concerns. The

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Speaker 1: Coalition is of course promising to create further divestiture powers,

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Speaker 1: and yesterday Peter Dutton was telling Sky News that quote,

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Speaker 1: we need depth in the insurance pool and we need

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Speaker 1: to make sure that we are not being ripped off

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Speaker 1: by insurance companies. So I suspect we'll be hearing a

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Speaker 1: lot about this one and it's an interesting battle for

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Speaker 1: the Coalition to be having with big business.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael on alongside that in Yarred's pool as you

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Speaker 2: call it. Also in federal politics, the government has reached

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Speaker 2: a deal to send violent non citizen criminals to Nauru.

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Speaker 2: A landmark High Court ruling in twenty twenty three determined

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Speaker 2: at two hundred and twenty people who had broken laws

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Speaker 2: and failed the character test but couldn't be resettled in

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Speaker 2: their home nation could not be held indefinitely. Labour has

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Speaker 2: been searching for a solution, saying it would pay third

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Speaker 2: party countries to take some of those affected by the ruling.

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Speaker 2: The first three ex detainees, and that includes one murderer

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Speaker 2: will now be sent to Naru within weeks, having been

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Speaker 2: granted a thirty year visa by the island nation. The

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Speaker 2: government hopes that more will then follow.

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Speaker 1: Adam. A quick look at auction results over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Preliminary clearance rates we had in Sydney more than seventy

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Speaker 1: six percent good result in Sydney, Melbourne seventy percent. Perth

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Speaker 1: and Canberra both had sixty percent. Adelaide a touch higher,

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Speaker 1: Brisbane a touch lower. It'd be an interesting weekend, wouldn't

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Speaker 1: it to be holding an auction just a couple of

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Speaker 1: days out from a an interest rate decision. You don't

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Speaker 1: know whether it's going to have a positive effect or

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Speaker 1: a negative effect. It all just depends on what is

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Speaker 1: actually decided tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Mike, particularly with Melbourne following that massive well

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Speaker 2: reported record resulting kunak of one hundred and fifty million dollars.

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Speaker 2: Didn't dent the sales on that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it wasn't that extraordinary. Now it is a bit

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Speaker 1: early to tell how the Capital city housing market is

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Speaker 1: going to perform this year, knowing it wasn't so flash

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Speaker 1: last year, at least in Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra, which

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Speaker 1: is a fairly sizable chunk of the country. Yeah, but Adam,

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Speaker 1: the regional property market is doing pretty well. In the

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Speaker 1: three months to the end of January, almost three quarters

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Speaker 1: of suburbs in regional Australia reported house price rises. In

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Speaker 1: the capital cities almost half recorded declines.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, two very distinct stories, Michael. The regions are showing

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Speaker 2: much more resilience and this is according to core logic data.

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Speaker 2: There are a few reasons for this. Homes in regional

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Speaker 2: Australia are cheaper to begin with, so affordability is greater. Also,

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Speaker 2: the competition in towns and small cities in the auction

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Speaker 2: market is not as hot. Core Logic economist Caitlin Ezi

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Speaker 2: also talks about a second wind in regional internal migration,

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Speaker 2: and that is for twofold reasons. More people are moving

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Speaker 2: away from the capital cities and people in the regions

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Speaker 2: are staying there. She says, hybrid working and working from

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Speaker 2: home are here to stay and people are prioritizing lifestyle

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Speaker 2: over work. As a result, demand levels in the regions

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Speaker 2: have settled at a point higher than pre COVID levels.

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Speaker 1: And of course for all that work from home, Adam,

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Speaker 1: you need good internet, which is a not essential. What

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Speaker 1: a segue into this next story, demand for higher internet speeds.

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Speaker 1: It's it's not even a clunky segue. It is very very,

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Speaker 1: very much. It is firmly linked because people working from home,

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Speaker 1: they need higher speeds, and that demand for higher speed

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Speaker 1: has lifted nbn co's half year earnings and the government

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Speaker 1: owned telco says that it is on track to meet

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Speaker 1: all its keep of performance targets. For the six months

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Speaker 1: to December, revenue was higher pre tax profit was up

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Speaker 1: seven percent. The results reflect a jump in revenue from,

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Speaker 1: of course, the residential market, where people are increasingly prepared

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Speaker 1: to pay higher prices for faster speed.

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Speaker 2: It's more and more regarded as an essential, I think Michael.

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Speaker 2: Chief executive Elie Sweeney set about eight point sixty two

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Speaker 2: million premises had connected to the NBA network by the

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Speaker 2: end of December, with twenty eight percent connected to plants

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Speaker 2: offering wholesale download speeds of one hundred megabits per second

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Speaker 2: and above.

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Speaker 1: NBN is the.

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Speaker 2: Wholesaler that sells fiber optic cable to retailers. She said,

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Speaker 2: astrains of fast adopters of technology and the NBN is

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Speaker 2: carrying more than eighty percent of daily traffic.

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Speaker 1: Adam, there's more evidence today of Australian companies going soft

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Speaker 1: on climate targets. Macquarie Group is quitting the world's biggest

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Speaker 1: climate banking alliance. That that is the first major Australian

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Speaker 1: financial institution to do so since the return of Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump to the White House.

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Speaker 2: Yeah Michael McCrory said it will leave the Net Zero

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Speaker 2: Banking Alliance, following the lead of other global banks including JP,

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Speaker 2: Morgan City and Bank of America. Australia's big banks are

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Speaker 2: all part of that alliance, which pushes members to cut

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Speaker 2: net emissions to zero to limit the effects of climate change.

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Speaker 2: We'll have to wait and see whether they stick.

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Speaker 1: With this alliance. The Australian ECF industry pushed past two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion dollars in funds under management last

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Speaker 1: month on the back of record inflows and positive market performance.

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Speaker 1: Yeah Michael.

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Speaker 2: January is normally a quiet month for the Australian exchange

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Speaker 2: traded fund industry, but January twenty twenty five was a

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Speaker 2: different story, as four point six billion of net inflows

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Speaker 2: beat the prior record by over six hundred million dollars.

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Speaker 2: Over the last twelve months, the Australian ETF industry has

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Speaker 2: grown by thirty five point nine percent, or that is

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Speaker 2: seventy nine point nine billion dollars. Gold miner exposures, including

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Speaker 2: the Beta SHARE's Global Miners ETF we the highest performing

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Speaker 2: funds in January, with the fund returning thirteen point ninety

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Speaker 2: six percent. January twenty twenty five was also a strong

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Speaker 2: month for international equities products.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning to international news, now, Adam and US

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Speaker 1: Vice President JD. Vance has what really is stunned Europe

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Speaker 1: with a speech that criticized leaders for undermining democratic values

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Speaker 1: and free speech. So leaders were gathered in Munich and

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Speaker 1: they are expecting to hear the Trump administration's plans for

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Speaker 1: ending the war in Ukraine and for dealing with the

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Speaker 1: threat of Russia more broadly. But instead Vice President Vance

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Speaker 1: got up there and he argued that Europe's primary threat

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Speaker 1: is in fact internal, stemming from a retreat from fundamental values,

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Speaker 1: rather than external actors like Russia or like China. He

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Speaker 1: called on Germany in particular, which is a little bit

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Speaker 1: awkward because Germany was hosting this particular event to drop

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Speaker 1: their objections to working with the party that has often

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Speaker 1: used banned Nazi slogans, saying quote, there is no room

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Speaker 1: for firewalls. In response, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz defending his

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Speaker 1: stance against the far right and said his country will

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Speaker 1: not accept people who intervene in our democracy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael. Also in Europe, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has

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Speaker 2: rejected a proposal from the White House that the US

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Speaker 2: be given fifty percent of the Ukraine's rare earth minerals.

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Speaker 2: The agreement was apparently intended as a way for Ukraine

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Speaker 2: to pay back the weapons and aid packages that the

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Speaker 2: US had provided since Russia invaded the country in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two. President Zelenski told reporters that the deal wasn't

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Speaker 2: in the sovereign interests of Ukraine, with Reuter's reporting that

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Speaker 2: it didn't contain security provisions that Ukraine required.

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Speaker 1: Mentioned this story at the top of the show. Adam,

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Speaker 1: China will launch a network of silver trains for elderly tourists.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm assuming that this actually means that they are

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Speaker 1: trains that are painted well, no, just targeting elderly passengers

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Speaker 1: as opposed to actually silver. I had an image of

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Speaker 1: kind of the what was the movie with the silver train?

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Speaker 2: Really old movie, yes, with Gene Wilder and yes, Richard

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Speaker 2: pryor Yes something express was that the It's got something

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Speaker 2: and it's got silver.

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Speaker 1: You know what, it'll come to me, give me a

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Speaker 1: minute and anyway, these trains. The goal is to unleash

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Speaker 1: the spending power of one of the world's fastest aging populations,

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Speaker 1: and official action plan released this week outline the need

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Speaker 1: for trains to be outfitted with medical and old age services.

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Speaker 1: According to The Financial Times, by twenty twenty seven, a

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Speaker 1: network of such trains could cover the entire country.

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Speaker 2: Now, Michael, I'm not indicating that I'm an early buyer

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Speaker 2: of this service, but I do.

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Speaker 1: Love going on trains.

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Speaker 2: China's aging population poses a profound long term challenge to

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Speaker 2: the world's second largest economy. Twenty percent of the population

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Speaker 2: is over sixty years of age. Authority said the Silver

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Speaker 2: tourist trains were an important part of promoting s Servis consumption.

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Speaker 2: The government says the Silver economy is worth around US

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Speaker 2: one trillion dollars annually. China's retirement age is also among

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Speaker 2: the earliest in the world's sixty for men and fifty

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Speaker 2: five for women, though policymakers last year outline plans to

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Speaker 2: raise it gradually. State backed broadcast a CCTV is running

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Speaker 2: segments showing elderly passages on trains, dancing and playing marjong.

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Speaker 1: The Silver Streak.

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Speaker 2: Late seventies.

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Speaker 1: Michael, Yeah, classic, fine.

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Speaker 2: Work by two excellent comedians.

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Speaker 1: Ah, that is a great movie. I mean it's a

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Speaker 1: novel idea. This whole thing, isn't it Like it's just

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Speaker 1: I mean, not the Silver Streak. That's that's kind of

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Speaker 1: a realm.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Michael, you can't go.

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Speaker 1: It's you're too young.

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Speaker 2: You're allowed yet.

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Speaker 1: I reckon, i'd you'll just have to wait. I would

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Speaker 1: do trivia, I would do bingo it. Oh, it would

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Speaker 1: be fantastic, It would be great. Anyway, bring them out here.

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Speaker 1: Up next is The Weak Ahead, featuring our resident economist,

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Speaker 1: Stephen could call us than the Fear and Green Daily

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Speaker 1: Interview with Lachland Holloway from Morning Star. Plenty of good

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Speaker 1: listening coming up in the Fear and Greed Playlist on

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Speaker 1: your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot Com todayu, which

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Speaker 1: is also where you sign up for our free weekly

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Speaker 1: newsletter coming out on Wednesday, so you get on that

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Speaker 1: one today. Thank you very much, Adam, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the seventeenth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok, and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.