1 00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: From the newsroom, a news still come to the Gooday there, 2 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: I'm Andrew Bucklow. Well, this week all eyes are on Taiwan. 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,120 Speaker 1: There are fighter jets in the skies, warships off the coast, 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: and soldiers in the street. It's all part of the 5 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 1: country's biggest ever military drills ahead of an anticipated invasion 6 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: by Chinese forces. You see, Beijing sees Taiwan as a 7 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: breakaway province and wants to reunify it with the mainland, 8 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: whereas Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state. In this episode, 9 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: we're going to dive into these military drills, the sheer size, 10 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 1: the strategy, and what role the public will play, because 11 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: in Taiwan right now, national defense isn't just a military matter. 12 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: It's everyone's business. Joining me out to discuss what's going 13 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 1: on in East Asia is news dot com dot I 14 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: use Sam Clench clenchy. Taiwan practices military drills every single year, 15 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: but this year they are bigger than ever before. Why 16 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: would that be the case. 17 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 2: Well, Taiwan clearly feels there is a greater need than 18 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: ever to deter China from taking military action against it, 19 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: and that is the point of these military exercises to 20 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 2: demonstrate to China the Taiwan is capable of defending itself, 21 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 2: to quote the Defense Minister, and I'll do it directly. 22 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 2: The drills will let the international community know that we 23 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 2: are determined to defend ourselves and to pass on to 24 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 2: China that the nation's military has the confidence and ability 25 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 2: to defend a free and democratic life. So that quite 26 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: sums it up quite nicely. This year's drills are, as 27 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 2: you said, bigger than we've seen in the past. They're 28 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 2: going for ten days, which is double the five days 29 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 2: of last year. So why is that? I mean, there 30 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 2: are several factors here. Taiwan might be worried about the 31 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 2: United States commitment to defending its sovereignty given the changeover 32 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 2: in administration earlier this year, and we've also heard noises 33 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: from American officials suggestion twenty twenty seven as the possible 34 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 2: target year for a Chinese invasion. So twenty twenty seven 35 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: is the one hundredth anniversary of the founding of the 36 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 2: People's Liberation Army in China. It also marks the beginning 37 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 2: of Jijinping's fourth term in power, which suggests she might 38 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 2: want to make a statement of sorts. 39 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 1: God, it's not looking good for the people of Taiwan. 40 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: Is that, but I should add that they haven't given 41 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: up on diplomatic efforts with China. This is a report 42 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: from Sky News back in May. 43 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 3: It's probably not the first year lighting the dreamed of 44 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 3: before he became Taiwan's president. Neighbouring China has scaled up 45 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: its military pressure on the island it claims is its own, 46 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 3: at least four major exercises in the past twelve months. 47 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 3: In response, Taiwan's president says the island's best way to 48 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 3: avoid war is prepare for it by strengthening its defenses. 49 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 3: But he says he's still holding out an olive branch 50 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 3: to Beijing. 51 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 4: I'll say it here again if there can be parody 52 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 4: in respect, Taiwan is willing to cooperate and hold exchange 53 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 4: with China, replacing encirclement with interaction and division with dialogue 54 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 4: to develop together in peace. 55 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 1: But obviously Taiwan wants to be prepared if China does invade. 56 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: Hence all these military drills clenchy. There's a fair few 57 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: parts to this year's drills. Let's start with the computer 58 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: war games. What can you tell me about them. 59 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, Taiwan uses something called the JTLS Joint Theater Level Simulation, 60 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 2: which is a piece of technology developed by America. The 61 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 2: idea here is that Taiwan's military gets to run through 62 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 2: possible scenarios which would play out in real life of 63 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: China decided to attack. The proximity of Taiwan's China is 64 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 2: an important factor here, right. It's been reported that Chinese 65 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 2: missiles would only take a few minutes maybe three minutes 66 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 2: max to reach Taiwan if launched. So for that reason alone, 67 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 2: Taiwan's military needs to be prepared ahead of time. There 68 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 2: isn't going to be time to come up with a 69 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 2: plan on the fly should the worst happen. So this, 70 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 2: this sort of virtual simulation is a way to prepare 71 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 2: ahead of time. 72 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: So we've got the virtual simulations, and then there's also 73 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: live fire military drills. Tell us more about that. 74 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 2: These live fire drills. They're massive and we're talking about 75 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 2: more than twenty thousand Taiwanese reservists taking part. It's a 76 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 2: huge operation. Interestingly, the drills this year include focus on 77 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 2: what experts call gray zone tactics from China. That's a 78 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 2: term for Chinese actions that are threatening and provocative, but 79 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 2: don't quite amount to naked acts of war, which means 80 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 2: it's difficult for Taiwan to strike the right balance in response. 81 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 2: But the exercises do involve preparations for a literal, full 82 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 2: scale invasion. So, for example, troops will be practicing how 83 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 2: to deal with Chinese ships landing on Taiwanese shores. That's 84 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 2: sort of thing. It's very grim when you dig into it. 85 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,799 Speaker 1: You mentioned they're the twenty two thousand reservists. They'll obviously 86 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: be taking part in these drills alongside all of the 87 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: actual soldiers from Taiwan, but there's also the public having 88 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: to get involved in these drills as well. 89 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 2: It's fair to say the Taiwanese public is constantly aware 90 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: of the threats posed by China and of the possibility 91 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 2: that China will try to take their homes by force essentially. 92 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, these practice scenarios are not just 93 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 2: limited to the military reserves. They're also they call them 94 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 2: urban resilience drills. Those feature air raid sirens, alerts on 95 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 2: people's phones, and like a run through of evacuation procedures. 96 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 2: So if disaster does strike in China, were to invade 97 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 2: the people ahead of time, know how to react and 98 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 2: how to get to safety. These drills are taken very seriously. 99 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 2: By the way, if one happens while you're shopping at 100 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 2: the supermarket, you are required to go to an air 101 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 2: raid shelter, and there are hefty fine if you fail 102 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 2: to comply. It is properly serious business. 103 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: We've actually got some audio of one of these air 104 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: raids irons. Just imagine that you are going about your 105 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: daily life in Taiwan and then you hear this. Yeah, 106 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: pretty terrifying stuff there, Glenchy. What has China had to 107 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: say about Taiwan's military drills anything. 108 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: Well, China's traditional response to anything like this from Taiwan 109 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 2: as we to the littlers, and that is essentially what 110 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 2: we have seen from the government and military in this 111 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 2: case as well. A spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry 112 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 2: claimed this week that Taiwan's authorities were trying to hijack 113 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,919 Speaker 2: their countrymen to warmonger. I suppose it's the gist of it, 114 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 2: and I'll quote directly, the authorities are harming Taiwan out 115 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 2: of their selfish interests. We solemnly warn the DPP authorities 116 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 2: that's referring to the government of Taiwan that seeking independence 117 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 2: by force is a dead end. I find that really 118 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 2: striking personally, this idea that Taiwan is seeking independence by 119 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 2: force as a response to Taiwan demonstrating that it is 120 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 2: capable of defending itself if invaded. It's really reminiscent of 121 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 2: the rhetoric we heard from Russia regarding Ukraine before Putin invaded. 122 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 5: And look, I. 123 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 2: Should add another particularly ominous coat on the end there. 124 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 2: The Chinese spokesman said the People's Liberation Army's resolute countermeasures 125 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 2: against taiwan independence will not be deterred, nor would the 126 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 2: overwhelming and irresistible trend of China's national reunification be stopped. 127 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 2: Overwhelming and irresistible, I mean as signals of intent go. 128 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 2: That is rather grim. 129 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, one listen, the unknown variable in this big debate 130 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: about will China take Taiwan in the next couple of 131 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: years is the United States. In just a moment, we'll 132 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: find out what Donald Trump has had to say about 133 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: the situation. Welcome back. I'm chatting to news dot com 134 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: dot us Sam Clench about the possibility of that China 135 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: will take Taiwan. As we know there are big military 136 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: drills underway in Taiwan at the moment. Let's just talk 137 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: about the US and what impact they'll have in this debate. 138 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: So back in February, Donald Trump was asked to comment 139 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,239 Speaker 1: on the situation between China and Taiwan. Here's what he said. 140 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 6: I never comment on that. I don't comment on anything 141 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 6: because I don't want to ever put myself in that position. 142 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 6: And if I said it, I certainly wouldn't be saying 143 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 6: it to you. I'd be saying it to other people, 144 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 6: maybe people around this table, and very specific people around 145 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 6: this table. So I don't want to put myself in 146 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 6: that position. But I can tell you what. I have 147 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 6: a great relationship with presidentcy I've had a great relationship 148 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 6: with him. 149 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: Okay, So kind of playing it safe there. And then 150 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 1: just this week, some audio was leaked from a fundraiser 151 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump held last year. In the audio, he 152 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: claims that during his first term, he told China's President 153 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: Jijingping that he would bomb Beijing if China tried to 154 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: take Taiwan. He's that audio from CNN President Shi China. 155 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 7: But I said the same thing to them. I said, 156 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 7: you know, if you're going to ave a vision. He said, 157 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 7: I said, I have no choice to go, and he. 158 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 5: Except percent so clinchy. 159 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: What do you think would happen? Would the US step 160 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: in and defend Taiwan if China invaded, or would they 161 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: just give them weapons? Would they put boots on the ground, 162 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: or would they just go? You know what, none of 163 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: our business. That's between you guys. 164 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 7: Well. 165 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 2: One of the things Donald Trump has banked on throughout 166 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: his time in politics, and particularly this is the case 167 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 2: on the world stage, is his unpredictability. And he's so 168 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 2: unpredictable here. I don't think anybody really knows what Trump 169 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 2: would do in the event of a Chinese invasion. And 170 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 2: that adds what I suppose we might dispassionately call an 171 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 2: interesting element to the situation. If Eugene Ping were to 172 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 2: invade Taiwan, he would be gambling on the Trump administration staying. 173 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: Out of it. 174 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 2: It would be a gamble with some basis. Trump has 175 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:20,680 Speaker 2: made it clear many times that he doesn't love the 176 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 2: idea of new foreign entanglements for the United States. He 177 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 2: doesn't love the idea of the cost in terms of 178 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 2: money or human life. But there is also always the 179 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 2: chance that Trump would take Chinese actions as a personal slight, 180 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 2: has an insult to his own authority, and who knows 181 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 2: what he would do in that scenario. America stands, more broadly, 182 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 2: has long been one of deliberate ambiguity. It's implied that 183 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 2: America would help Taiwan has been implied for a long time, 184 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 2: but it's never stated explicitly. Putting aside a little verbal 185 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 2: slip up from Joe Biden during his term in office, 186 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 2: he was prone to them. 187 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 5: Would US forces defend the iwand yes, there was an 188 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 5: unprecedented attack. After our interview of White House official told 189 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 5: us US policy has not changed. Officially, the US will 190 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 5: not say whether American forces would defend Taiwan, but the 191 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 5: commander in chief had a view of his own, so, 192 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 5: unlike Ukraine, to be clear, Sir, US forces, US men 193 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 5: and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a 194 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 5: Chinese invasion. 195 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 2: Yes, So the difficulty of predicting what America would do 196 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 2: here is exactly what America actually wants. It's what it's 197 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 2: explicitly been pursuing for decades, and it leaves us in 198 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 2: a situation of well, yeah, I mean that is the 199 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 2: word ambiguity. We're not sure what China intends, We're not 200 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 2: sure what America would do in response, and obviously America's 201 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 2: response would dictate what happens in the rest of the 202 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 2: world as well well. 203 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: We wait with Beita breath to see what happens at 204 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: news dot com dot U, Sam Clinch, thank you very much, Bronti. 205 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: We'll be back with a royal episode for you over 206 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: the weekend, and then I'm taking a few days off, 207 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: so we will be back midweek. 208 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 6: I'll speak to you then follow us subscribe to from 209 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 6: the newsroom wherever you get your podcasts.