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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The Reserve Bank cuts interest

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Speaker 1: rates for the first time in four years, but don't

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Speaker 1: hold your breath for another reduction. PHP turns in a

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Speaker 1: disappointing half year profit of eight billion dollars and why

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Speaker 1: no one wants to be a middle manager anymore? Plus

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Speaker 1: the hble C pushes forward the Virgin Katar tie up

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Speaker 1: and ten Ozzie unis ranked in the top three hundred

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Speaker 1: in the world. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business

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Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the nineteenth of February twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning, the Reserve Bank has cut interest rates,

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Speaker 1: but Governor Michelle Bullock made it clear that there is

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Speaker 1: not necessarily another cut on the way. She also defended

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Speaker 1: the bank from the claims that the decision to drop

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Speaker 1: the official cash rate by zero point two five percentage

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Speaker 1: points was political and said inflation risks the main alive

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Speaker 1: and well in the economy. There is a lot in

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Speaker 1: this one.

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Speaker 2: Something for everyone. In the official statement, the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: said it would be cautious about further rate cuts, not

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Speaker 2: exactly a ringing endorsement of more cuts. Then, in the

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Speaker 2: media conference following the decisions, Bullok absolutely rammed him of

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Speaker 2: the point, saying the decision to cut rates wasn't a

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Speaker 2: lay down massaire as many people thought. It was a

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Speaker 2: consensus view amongst the board members, so it's not as

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Speaker 2: if everyone voted the same way. The Board's decision reflects

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Speaker 2: falling inflation in the economy. It's the first reduction in

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Speaker 2: more than four years, though monetary policy is still restrictive.

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Speaker 2: What's that mean, Well, it's taking away from economic growth,

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Speaker 2: it's not adding to economic growth. I reckon. It was

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Speaker 2: like a begrudging rate cut. The boards still worried about

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Speaker 2: a bunch of stuff, wage costs, inflation in the services sector.

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Speaker 2: It isn't fully confident that price pressures have left the

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Speaker 2: housing sector, but they almost felt they had to do it.

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Speaker 2: There's also a bunch of unknowns out there. Michelle Bullock

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Speaker 2: mentioned US tariff policy and just how far aggregate demand

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Speaker 2: and supply are apart. That sounds like an economic little

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Speaker 2: lesson there. Basically, you know supply and demand when they're

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Speaker 2: in equilibrium, that's where you want it to be, We're

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Speaker 2: just not there yet. And Michelle Bullock admitted yesterday that

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank doesn't quite know when it will get

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Speaker 2: to that point. That's the sort of stuff that's worrying

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Speaker 2: the Central Bank.

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Speaker 1: I want to get to the broader response to it

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Speaker 1: in a sec but the governor talking about it yesterday,

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Speaker 1: I reckon that was the strongest and most definitely has

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Speaker 1: been on anything in terms of trying to kind of

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Speaker 1: hose down speculation about future rate cuts. It was the

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Speaker 1: equivalent of a fire hose, just trying to cool everyone off,

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Speaker 1: saying no, this is not necessarily saying anything else is

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Speaker 1: going to happen.

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Speaker 2: So then our newsletter today I talk about this. I

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Speaker 2: just don't know that the Reserve Bank's got the messaging right.

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Speaker 2: The fact that yesterday they more or less had to

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Speaker 2: do a rate cut, and I'm not even sure they

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Speaker 2: wanted to. They were almost ram or rail raided into it.

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Speaker 2: And you wonder whether all this transparency, in the fact

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Speaker 2: that whatever Michelle Bullock says, people are hanging off every word.

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Speaker 2: They found themselves in this situation where we didn't really

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Speaker 2: want to cut rates, but we have to because the

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Speaker 2: market expects it and everyone's been talking about it, and

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Speaker 2: I think that's a reflection of what you just talked about.

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Speaker 2: She just kept saying, no, no, this doesn't mean that

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Speaker 2: we're going to have another rate cut. You know, we're

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Speaker 2: going to see what the data says, et cetera, et cetera,

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Speaker 2: but much more pointedly than normally would.

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Speaker 1: Then we've ever seen it, because normally she's so careful

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Speaker 1: to not give a definite answer one way or the other.

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Speaker 1: Yesterday was the most definitely I think we've ever seen it.

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Speaker 1: What was the broader response, No doubt the federal government

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Speaker 1: would be pretty happy.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I think so. Treasure Jim Chalmers said it was

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Speaker 2: a rate cut Australians need and deserve. He said it

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Speaker 2: won't fix everything, but it's a step in the right direction.

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Speaker 2: Of course, we've got an election some point in the

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Speaker 2: next three months or so, and so i'd imagine that

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Speaker 2: the federal government's very happy about the decision from the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank yesterday. Michelle Bullet was asked about that in

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Speaker 2: the press conference. She said that it was an I mean, basically,

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Speaker 2: they made that decision on data, not on politics. I

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Speaker 2: think that's probably right. The tone of the Reserve Bank commentary,

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Speaker 2: did cool markets just to touch bond triders. Bond traders

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Speaker 2: have now priced in another reduction in July. Previously they

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Speaker 2: were talking about May, but they've pushed that out against

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Speaker 2: some market economists still think there will be another cut

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Speaker 2: in May. Within minutes of the Reserve Bank decision, so

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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes less than that, all the major banks have

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Speaker 2: announced that they lowered their mortgage rates. That's about a

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Speaker 2: thousand bucks a year from a half million dollar loan.

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Speaker 2: That was quite incredible the lenders. So we were sitting

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Speaker 2: next to each other when this happened at two thirty,

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Speaker 2: and we had the nighbor radio on, and within what

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Speaker 2: twenty minutes there were ads running from one of the

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Speaker 2: lenders saying, you won't take advantage of the rate cut,

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Speaker 2: come and see us. It was phenomenal how fast that happened.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's been a great deal of expectation that this

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Speaker 1: was on the way. And if you happen to be

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Speaker 1: with a bank now that is not passing it on there,

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Speaker 1: I think you're well within your rights to ask why Sean.

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Speaker 1: After the show stick Around, We've got an interview coming

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Speaker 1: up with Gareth aired, the head of Australian Economics from

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank, who knows this space so well.

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Speaker 2: Yes, he's happy because he's been calling for a rate

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Speaker 2: cut in February and it came to fruition. We talked

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Speaker 2: to him about why the Reserve Bank did it and

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Speaker 2: the chances of another rate cut in the next few months.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so that one's coming up a bit later on.

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Speaker 1: And now you mentioned the bond market, how did the

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Speaker 1: local equity market respond s?

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Speaker 2: ANDPASX two hundred fell really sharply after the announcement, bound

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Speaker 2: straight back up and then fell. In the end, it

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Speaker 2: closed down about half a percent to eight thousand, four

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty one points. Energy and financial stocks did worst,

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Speaker 2: healthcare companies did best. Maybe there's just a bit of

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Speaker 2: disappointment around the place that there isn't obviously another rate

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Speaker 2: cut on the way. Certainly that's sort ended up with

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Speaker 2: all the big banks being sold off.

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Speaker 1: It just kind of it took me a bit by

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Speaker 1: surprise there. I was just thinking that normally in the

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Speaker 1: middle of earning season where we are now, we would

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Speaker 1: be talking a very lengthy report right now what happened

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Speaker 1: on equity markets. But because this was such a big

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Speaker 1: news day yesterday, that all of a sudden just pushes

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Speaker 1: everything else to one side, doesn't it? Because BHP. We

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Speaker 1: had BHP come out yesterday turning a disappointing underlying profit

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Speaker 1: of eight billion dollars for the second half of last year,

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Speaker 1: cutting its dividend to its lowest level in eight years.

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Speaker 2: I love the fact that begep can do eight billion

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Speaker 2: dollars underlying.

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Speaker 1: Profit and it's disappointing.

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Speaker 2: Let time. Basically week demand for steel out of China

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Speaker 2: is hurting BHP. BHP exports a lot of iron ore

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Speaker 2: A couple of years ago that was about seventy percent

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Speaker 2: of its income, not quite as high nowadays, but the

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Speaker 2: fact that China isn't doesn't want as much steel prices

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Speaker 2: have dropped, so it's actually more value than volume, and

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Speaker 2: as a result, the underlying profit was twenty three percent

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Speaker 2: lower than twelve months earlier. Coal prices were also softer.

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Speaker 2: Now Boss Mike Henry said he's seen tentative signs of

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Speaker 2: recovery in China. That's good. The reason that VHP has

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Speaker 2: given shareholders such a low dividend is that they can

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Speaker 2: keep the cash because they want to invest in other

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Speaker 2: commidities ie copper. Now, the last couple of years, BHP

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Speaker 2: has spent thirteen billion dollars buying os minerals, a copper group,

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Speaker 2: Philo Corp. They also had a crack at Anglo American

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Speaker 2: for seventy five billion. Didn't quite get that Henry yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Mike Henry yesterday said they're unlikely to have another go

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Speaker 2: at Anglo American. Undoubtedly, the tone of discussion yesterday was

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Speaker 2: all about copper, copper, and a little bit more about copper.

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Speaker 2: Now they've got Olympic Dam, They've got deposits in Chile,

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Speaker 2: Argentina Us.

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Speaker 1: It is the future.

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Speaker 2: It isn't iron Ore, and that's what Rio thinks. On

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Speaker 2: global trade tensions, Henry said he didn't know where things

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Speaker 2: will land, but they could directly impact BHP. Potter sales

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Speaker 2: out of Canada, for example, is one. Over the last decade,

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Speaker 2: BHP has spent billions of dollars in Canada developing potash

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Speaker 2: o all. BHP's share price dropped initially, by the end

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Speaker 2: of the day was actually slightly high given the market

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Speaker 2: itself was down. It was a pretty good day for BHP.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned before, and I completely missed this. The fear

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Speaker 1: and greed newsletter that comes out today. If you haven't

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Speaker 1: signed up for the newsletter, head along to Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au pop your email addressing. The best thing

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Speaker 1: about the newsletter is that the podcast is all about

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Speaker 1: the news, and in the newsletter you give us your

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Speaker 1: views and they can really be quite direct, quite pointed,

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Speaker 1: quite heated. There we go. So, yeah, that's coming out

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Speaker 1: in a couple of hours. Head of the website. Now

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Speaker 1: sign up. We've still got plenty more to come. We're

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Speaker 1: talking good news for Virgin Australia. The story about middle

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Speaker 1: management Sean about why it's no longer said as sexy,

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Speaker 1: if it ever was seen as sexy. But it's a

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Speaker 1: great story. We'll be back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news Sean. Virgin Australia's plans

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Speaker 1: to resume long haul flights using Katar planes has been

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Speaker 1: given the green light by the competition watchdog.

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Speaker 2: The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's draft decision said the

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Speaker 2: tie up between the two carriers will be good for travelers.

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Speaker 2: In fact, let me quote several public benefits, including providing

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Speaker 2: enhanced products and services for air travelers, which would include

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Speaker 2: increased choice of international flights with additional connectivity, convenience, loyalty

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Speaker 2: program benefits all sorts of things.

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Speaker 1: When you picture them getting the green light, do you

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Speaker 1: think of them out there like the paddles out in

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Speaker 1: the front of the green paddle out in front of

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Speaker 1: the Absolutely not.

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Speaker 2: That's a funny idea, that's just me.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It does need the Foreign Investment Review Board to approve

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Speaker 2: Katar's hopes to buy twenty five percent of Virgin. I'd

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Speaker 2: imagine to be a very courageous government to not allow it. Also,

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Speaker 2: yesterday the latest data from the huble's see on domestic

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Speaker 2: travel and since Rex's demise, Virgin share has grown continually.

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Speaker 2: In December it had thirty five percent market share. Why

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Speaker 2: is they significant because Quantus had thirty four point six percent.

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Speaker 2: It actually beat Oh wow, it beat Quantus. Now Jetstar

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Speaker 2: was at twenty nine percent. Obviously Jetstar is part of Quantus.

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Speaker 2: But Virgin has done really well post Rex, up to

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Speaker 2: thirty five percent. That data also shows at cancelation rates

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Speaker 2: of falling flights are fuller and airfares are stabilizing. In fact,

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Speaker 2: they were down three percent on the previous December.

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Speaker 1: We talked about bhp before. There are plenty of other

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Speaker 1: results out yesterday. This is an interesting one. Four wheel

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Speaker 1: Drive Parts and Accessories Group. AARB Corporations net profit last

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Speaker 1: half dropped slightly, even though sales were up.

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Speaker 2: I like this company, like plenty of investors like this,

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Speaker 2: and it basically sells bull bars, canopies, range of sort

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Speaker 2: of off road enthusiastic accessories. You're looking at me laughing.

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Speaker 2: That is the lasting I am right, nothing.

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Speaker 1: At driving like a people mover. I'd love to see

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Speaker 1: you put a bull bar on that thing. Well.

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Speaker 2: Look, the overall automotive market grew in the last six

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Speaker 2: months of last year, but the number of utes purchased

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Speaker 2: has fallen, so fewer yets, fewer sales. For AARB. I

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Speaker 2: had Highluck sales down twenty three percent, Forward Ranger down

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Speaker 2: twenty one percent. Is there's a dmax twenty one percent.

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Speaker 2: These are all names that I just say. I don't

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Speaker 2: really know what they are. I just know there are

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Speaker 2: a lot of people are drive them around the place

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Speaker 2: and clog up the road. It's pretty irritating.

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Speaker 1: It's entirely foreign to you.

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Speaker 2: Isn't it totally foreign? Anyway? That was bad use for AARB.

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Speaker 1: The I mentioned this one of the top the Times

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Speaker 1: Higher Education Reputation rankings is among the most recognized rankings

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Speaker 1: of global universities. Because there's a bunch of different rankings,

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Speaker 1: this is a big one. The latest list though, includes

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Speaker 1: ten Ossie institutions in the top three hundred. That's pretty good,

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Speaker 1: it is.

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Speaker 2: It surveys fifty five thousand academic experts. That's why it's

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Speaker 2: so highly recognized.

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Speaker 1: I thought there were that many academic experts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like academic experts as opposed to academics experts

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Speaker 2: about the academics, Yeah, all right. Maybe the number one

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Speaker 2: at university in Australia Melbourne UNI forty seven in the

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Speaker 2: world u SID University of Sydney at sixty Monash University

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Speaker 2: at sixty three, also in the top one hundred, University

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Speaker 2: of Queensland a and Australian National University, and the University

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Speaker 2: of New South Wales. Internationally, Harvard that remains number one

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Speaker 2: MIT and Oxford at equal second Harvard and both in Boston.

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Speaker 2: Quite a phenomenal educational city, that one Oxford, Oxford. As

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Speaker 2: I said, it's equal second in the top three hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy one of the schools come out of the US.

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Speaker 2: Six of the top ten come out of the US.

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Speaker 2: The UK set in nine, Germany's twenty seven, but after

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Speaker 2: that it kind of drops down to European Japan, but

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Speaker 2: they're kind of that ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen level, and

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Speaker 2: Australia is in that sort of ranking.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, it's not too bad. Now the international

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Speaker 1: news time now shan a Delta. The pictures of this

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Speaker 1: are incredible. A Delta Airlines regional jet flipped upside down

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Speaker 1: upon landing at Canada's Toronto Pierson Airport. There's windy weather

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Speaker 1: following a snowstorm. Eighteen of the eighty people on board

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Speaker 1: were injured, but staggeringly, nobody was killed.

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Speaker 2: Three people suffered critical injuries, among them a child, according

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Speaker 2: to authorities, but as you say, no one was killed.

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Speaker 2: The fight originated at Minneapolis Saint Paul International Airport. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if you know the geography. That's a really

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Speaker 2: short flight. That's very very you know, it was a

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Speaker 2: Delta CRJ nine hundred aircraft operated by its Endeavor Air subsidiary.

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Speaker 2: Canadian authorities that they're going to investigate the cause of

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Speaker 2: the crash. They don't know yet, but think about this story,

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Speaker 2: the fact that no one died. When you literally see

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Speaker 2: the plane on its head, you're upside down, seatbelts work story.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely time to talk about middle management.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, put your cardigan on. Let's go.

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Speaker 1: Middle management, it appears, doesn't have the sex appeal that

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Speaker 1: it used to. That it used to when was this?

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Speaker 1: Where's the baseline as a previous middle manager?

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Speaker 2: Oh no, I've loved my middle management day.

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Speaker 1: I tend to think that I had a certain amount

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Speaker 1: of sex appeal. I don't know whether that's something that

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Speaker 1: you can declare yourself. This is according to a new survey,

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Speaker 1: with younger employees, especially jen Z seeing it as a

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Speaker 1: thankless slog and my favorite part of this story, Sean

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Speaker 1: wall Street's most senior banker has just let fly at

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Speaker 1: work from home, and in doing so, I was also

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Speaker 1: targeted gen Z zoomers.

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Speaker 2: He calls them zoomers. So survey first two thousand white

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Speaker 2: collar professionals by Robert Walters, one of the really big

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Speaker 2: recruiters around the world. Eight hundred respondents were jen Z

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Speaker 2: employees aged up to twenty seven. Half didn't want to

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Speaker 2: be middle managers at all. They just thought too much stress,

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Speaker 2: too little reward. Of course, that's exactly what a middle

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Speaker 2: manager is. You crunched, you get paid, crap, a lot

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Speaker 2: of stress. If you make it through, you make the

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Speaker 2: top management. That's where you and your money. Long hours,

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Speaker 2: endless firefighting, and tedious personal management are the usual markers

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Speaker 2: of these roles. According to an FT report, which brings

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Speaker 2: us on to Jamie Diamond, the boss of JP Morgan

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Speaker 2: really the number one Wall Street benker, you know at

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Speaker 2: the moment he teed off on the Zoomers in Elite

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Speaker 2: report to The Wall Street Journal. He complained of slow

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Speaker 2: decision making, phone calls going unanswered, younger recruits being left

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Speaker 2: behind due to work from home.

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Speaker 1: Then he fight up.

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Speaker 2: He criticized zoomers for spending all their time on the

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Speaker 2: video app Zoom instead of physical officers. He said, Dan,

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Speaker 2: give me this shit that work from home Friday works.

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Speaker 2: I call a lot of people on Fridays and there's

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Speaker 2: not a gard damn person you can get a hold of.

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Speaker 1: You would think if you saw that Jamie Diamond was calling,

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Speaker 1: you'd probably pick up. I might just enter this, you

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Speaker 1: pick up even though I'm just pretending to work. Great

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Speaker 1: story that one up. Next, Sean is the fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Daily Interview with Gareth aired from CBA. And also

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Speaker 1: don't forget to sign up for the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: news that are coming out in a couple of hours.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the nineteenth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.