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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Australia's healthcare companies are in turmoil, with US tariffs the

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Speaker 1: latest in a long line of challenges for the worst

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Speaker 1: performing sector on the ASX. Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi rules

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Speaker 1: out any more referendums and quantas, lifts the bar on

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Speaker 1: management performance hurdles, plus the hottest jobs in the market,

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Speaker 1: and America goes crazy for drive through coffee. It is Monday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty ninth of September twenty twenty five. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, US President Donald Trump's decision

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Speaker 1: to place one hundred percent tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into

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Speaker 1: the US has sent global drug companies into a tailspin,

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Speaker 1: and in Australia it's basically had the effect of putting

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Speaker 1: more pressure, even more pressure on one of the worst

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Speaker 1: performing sectors on the.

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Speaker 3: ASX, the s ANDPAX two hundred Healthcare Index, which is

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Speaker 3: the third biggest on the moors, worth about eight percent

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Speaker 3: of the ASX two hundred. It's got fourteen constituents. It's

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Speaker 3: trading at close to a fifty two week low, down

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Speaker 3: eighteen percent this year, and this is well ahead of

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Speaker 3: the tariffs. Compare that to other sectors consumer discretionary, financials, industrials,

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Speaker 3: tech materials, property utilities. All those indices are trading close

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Speaker 3: to year highs or at least in the top quartile

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Speaker 3: of their performance. Now, the tariffs are bad news, although

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Speaker 3: Australian authorities are struggling to understand the implications for about

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Speaker 3: two billion dollars worth of ossie exports to the US.

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Speaker 3: The carve out at the moment is that drug makers

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Speaker 3: won't be hit with the tariff if they have an

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Speaker 3: American manufacturing plant under construction by Wednesday. Now the good

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Speaker 3: news for Australias because drug companies ce sell it actually

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Speaker 3: has about sixty percent of its business including manufacturing plants,

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Speaker 3: in the US. Notwithstanding that its share price did fall

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Speaker 3: on Friday. More contentions contentious perhaps in the longer term,

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Speaker 3: will be how this Onlian government regulates drug prices through

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Speaker 3: the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme. But coming back to the sector,

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Speaker 3: the tariffs aren't the reason for the poor performance of

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Speaker 3: the health care sector. The irony is it should be

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Speaker 3: a golden period for healthcare. There's an aging population globally,

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Speaker 3: there's a prevalence of chronic diseases. There's also rising healthcare spending.

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Speaker 3: But global players are doing a better job aggressively adopting

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Speaker 3: AI for drug discovery, clinical trial optimization, and supply chain resilience.

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Speaker 3: According to analysts, Also, size matters because it allows diversification.

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Speaker 3: Izzie healthcare companies and biotechs focus pretty much on treatments

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Speaker 3: for specific ailments. They're just not diversified, and our market

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Speaker 3: size is small, so that we've got to go overseas

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Speaker 3: to succeed. Mostly that means Europe or the US that

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Speaker 3: doesn't come cheaply. So a lot working against the ossie

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Speaker 3: companies at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and these tariffs are just the latest hit, really,

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Speaker 1: isn't it. And it was interesting watching the scramble on

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Speaker 1: Friday when news broke of these tariffs being imposed as

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Speaker 1: companies try to figure out how they're going to be impacted,

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Speaker 1: and then very quick quickly trying to emphasize the fact,

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Speaker 1: hey we've got these processing manage the manufacturing plants in

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Speaker 1: the US and CSL you mentioned, but miso blast was

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Speaker 1: doing the same thing. Telex Pharmaceuticals doing the same thing,

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Speaker 1: and all of them still were hit hard their share

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Speaker 1: prices on Friday. Long term CSL well medium, it's a

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Speaker 1: short to medium term CSL's obviously been a poor performer.

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Speaker 1: But there have been some good ones, right, Sigma Healthcare

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Speaker 1: and pro Medicus kind of come to mind.

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Speaker 3: True, but they've been over shadowed really by the bad

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Speaker 3: ones in CSLS led the market down. It's never recovered

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Speaker 3: post COVID. It was re rated post COVID. The tariff

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Speaker 3: treats just the latest life for that one. It had

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Speaker 3: a heart drug candidate which it had spent a billion

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Speaker 3: dollars on in research.

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Speaker 2: It failed.

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Speaker 3: The bearing blood plasma business is struggling. It's five for

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Speaker 3: farmer business, which CESEL paid about nineteen billion dollars into

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Speaker 3: one has struggled the whole time. Other groups like Fisher

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Speaker 3: and paykeal Cochlear, Sonic Healthcare, Ramsey, you mentioned Telix, but

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Speaker 3: it Ebos, they've all gone backwards over the past twelve months. Sure,

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Speaker 3: there's been some strong performance. Sigma Healthcare fantastic, did the

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Speaker 3: deal with Chemist Warehouse done really well. Miso Blast has

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Speaker 3: has some really good clinical trials. It's outperformed over the

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Speaker 3: past year, though, confidence has come out of that stock

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Speaker 3: since its last result, And of course there's Promedicus, everyone's

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Speaker 3: favorite last financial year, it has flat lined since then.

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Speaker 3: A few others, res med Neu and pharmaceuticals have done

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Speaker 3: reasonably well, but overall there's a lot working against the

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Speaker 3: local pharmaceutical companies right now.

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Speaker 1: I did appreciate the reference to flatlining in the O

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Speaker 1: in healthcare.

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Speaker 2: I've done it.

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Speaker 1: Oh that wasn't even deliberate. No, God, these things come

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Speaker 1: so naturally to you that you don't even realize the

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Speaker 1: gift that you possessed. Sean. Anyway, the local share market

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Speaker 1: did close higher on f and for the week, and

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Speaker 1: now all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank Board

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Speaker 1: meeting today and tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: No one really expects a rate cut tomorrow afternoon, but

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Speaker 3: it will be very interesting to see what Governor Michelle

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Speaker 3: Bullock and the board have to say. We heard from

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Speaker 3: the government last week that the economy is in pretty

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Speaker 3: good shape, but since then, the head of the US

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Speaker 3: Federal Reserve, Joe Powell, has commented that he's a bit

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Speaker 3: more worried about inflation globally. Really, they Michael at the

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Speaker 3: moment all about silver prices The price of silver hit

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Speaker 3: a fourteen year high over the weekend, up fifty five

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Speaker 3: percent this year, better than gold, it's up only forty

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Speaker 3: three percent. Only there you go, now worth forty five

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Speaker 3: US dollars a ton, highest level since April twenty eleven.

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Speaker 3: A few things on that say haven buying, so it's

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Speaker 3: a bit like gold, nowhere near to that extent, but

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Speaker 3: you know, say haven buying, you buy silver. Falling US

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Speaker 3: dollar has also helped, but one I like, silver's actually

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Speaker 3: got uses.

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Speaker 2: So about sixty.

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Speaker 3: Percent of silver is used in industry, only about seven

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Speaker 3: percent of gold, so it's almost like a fallback, so

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Speaker 3: it's not just the safe haven. You can actually use

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Speaker 3: the stuff as well. That's helped a bunch of local

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Speaker 3: stocks like Unico, Unico Silver, Sun, Silver, bow Ab Metals,

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Speaker 3: they've all benefited.

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Speaker 1: Sean, you mentioned the Reserve Bank Board meeting today tomorrow

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed Q and a coming up

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Speaker 1: after the show, which is our regular Monday episode of

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Speaker 1: the week Ahead really with resident economist Stephen Cocolis, we

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Speaker 1: go into the Reserve Bank Board meeting what they'll be

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Speaker 1: looking at, but also there's a bunch of other things

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Speaker 1: happening this week. It is a big it's it almost

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Speaker 1: goes so far as to say a bump a week

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Speaker 1: for the economy. You've got building building approvals, we got

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Speaker 1: house prices from Cotality, we've got household spending for August.

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Speaker 1: A lot of bits and pieces happening, headlined of course

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Speaker 1: by the Reserve Bank Board meeting. But check out fear

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Speaker 1: and greed the week ahead, which is today's episode of

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Speaker 1: Q and A coming up after the show with Stephen

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Speaker 1: Coculis Sean, let's take a quick break back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news Sean.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albernizi says there will be no attempt

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Speaker 1: at constitutional change, such as a referendum, while he is

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Speaker 1: running the country.

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Speaker 3: His comments came after meeting King Charles the Third at Balmoral.

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Speaker 3: He told ab season Cider's program that instead the government's

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Speaker 3: concentrating on cost of living and making a real practical

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Speaker 3: difference to people's lives. Previously, Alberanzi had only promised no

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Speaker 3: referendum this term of parliament. The new declaration ends any

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Speaker 3: prospect of a tilt at becoming a republic or introducing

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Speaker 3: a four year term of Federal Parliament, both causes which

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Speaker 3: Alberinezi believes him. The Prime Minister said the republic was

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Speaker 3: not raised during his talks in lunch with the King,

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Speaker 3: though he hinted that the Orcas Pact was. Of course,

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Speaker 3: you don't discuss what you talk to the king about,

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Speaker 3: but Albanezi hinted Orcas was in there. Charles the Third,

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Speaker 3: of course, appointedly raised the pact in a speech in

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Speaker 3: the presence of Donald Trump last week. Alberanze easy first

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Speaker 3: Australian Prime minister to visit Balmoral since Paul Keating with

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Speaker 3: Queen Elizabeth the ID in the nineties. At that point,

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Speaker 3: Keating actually set to Queen Elizabeth Second that he planned

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Speaker 3: to hold a referendum to make Australia a republic. Well,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure that was a memorable meeting.

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Speaker 1: This for the question why no one else has gone

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Speaker 1: back to Balmoral since perhaps that's a shame that that

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Speaker 1: he's ruled out even the four year terms referendum, because

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Speaker 1: come on, we have some courage, You've got a massive

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Speaker 1: mandate here, You've got people kind of on board for

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Speaker 1: some change. Put it out there and let people decide.

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Speaker 1: Come on, yep, yep, with you I'll get off my

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Speaker 1: high horse and my soapbox. In fact, I'm on a

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Speaker 1: high horse balanced on a soapbox. It's precarious. Sean Grand

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Speaker 1: Final weekend in Melbourne reduced the number of auctions in

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Speaker 1: that state and really then across the country also had

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Speaker 1: a bit of a dampening effect on clearance rates.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so there was a thirty three percent reduction in

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Speaker 3: auctions in the combined Capital's preliminary clearance rate came in

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Speaker 3: at seventy one point four percent nearly seventy eight percent

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Speaker 3: last week, so you know, quite the drop. But I

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Speaker 3: wouldn't read too much into that given the football final.

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Speaker 3: Same deal next week with the NRL Grand Final being

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Speaker 3: held in Sydney. Sydney recorded most auctions it's clear and straight,

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Speaker 3: with seventy three point five percent, well down from a

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Speaker 3: week earlier. Only two hundred and thirty homes went under

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Speaker 3: the hammer in Melbourne. Why would you sell in Melbourne

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Speaker 3: and Grand Final weekend?

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Speaker 1: I don't know, You've got no idea, like you would

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Speaker 1: assume they didn't check the calendar.

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Speaker 2: One in three didn't sell.

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Speaker 3: I have a clearance three of sixty five percent, so

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Speaker 3: pretty poor anyway, don't sell on Grand Final weekend.

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Speaker 1: Basically okay, lesson learned show on the Quantas board has

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Speaker 1: lifted the bar for long term incentive plans, saying shares

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Speaker 1: will only vest if the airline's reputation score improves from

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Speaker 1: average to strong or excellent by twenty twenty eight. This

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Speaker 1: feels like a very targeted measure aim to fix some

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Speaker 1: of Quantis's problems.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. The chief executive of Vanessa Hudson

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Speaker 3: will have her shares at risk and she will be

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Speaker 3: well rewarded, but only if she improves the carrier's reputation. Quantus,

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Speaker 3: of course, has had a horror couple of years, at

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Speaker 3: least in a pr sense. Last week, remember the Roy

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Speaker 3: Morgan rankings put Quantus as one of the most distrusted

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Speaker 3: brands in the country. So Hudson clearly has plenty to do.

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Speaker 3: In the twenty twenty five financial year, the one that

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Speaker 3: was finished, Hudson was awarded two point four million dollars

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Speaker 3: under the incentive plan, taking her annual learnings to six

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Speaker 3: point three A revised plan being put to shareholders at

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Speaker 3: the November seven AGM, will see the reward opportunity for

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Speaker 3: MSS Hudson lifted from one sixty to one eighty percent,

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Speaker 3: but she needs to improve Quantus's reputation. Now its score

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Speaker 3: as assessed by rep track, which is basically the industry

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Speaker 3: standard for this, it used to be in the strong

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Speaker 3: to excellent range all the time. It's now in the

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Speaker 3: average range, and so her goal is to get that

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Speaker 3: back to strong to excellent. According to rep track.

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Speaker 1: Sean employment platforms SEEK this is quite a good one

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Speaker 1: has unveiled its latest list of hot jobs, the roles

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Speaker 1: that are currently most in demand on the site, and

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Speaker 1: coming in at number one, it's podcasters, does not, that's it.

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Speaker 1: It's admin and office support roles. No one wants to

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Speaker 1: be a podcaster.

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Speaker 2: No no.

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Speaker 3: Then comes support workers in healthcare, educators and teachers, and

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Speaker 3: next then store manages, accountants, nurses, truck drivers, electricians, and chefs.

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Speaker 3: What I like about this it's kind of real world jobs.

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Speaker 1: That's realistic.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah yeah.

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Speaker 3: So the data shows that demand for health and care

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Speaker 3: related roles continues to grow, according to SEEK, part of

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Speaker 3: that's demographic baby boom is getting older. Part of that's

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Speaker 3: people more health conscious. Partly it's driven by the ndis spending.

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Speaker 3: The jump in demand for truck drivers. Any thoughts on

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Speaker 3: why that's the case, Seek told us, So I've got

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Speaker 3: the answer.

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Speaker 1: Ah, well, I would assume because we are ordering so

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Speaker 1: e commerce and everything.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So that's part of it.

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Speaker 3: The other part is the big pick up in infrastructure projects.

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Speaker 3: Also housing that helps, but online delivery is a big

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Speaker 3: part of it.

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Speaker 1: Oh, there you go. Turning to international news now shown in.

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Speaker 1: The Ukrainian capital came under a quote massive attack by

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Speaker 1: Russia over the weekend, with hundreds of drones and missiles

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Speaker 1: used in the latest wave of attacks across the country.

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Speaker 3: On Saturday, Ukraine's president Vladimir Zelensky warned that Russia would

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Speaker 3: not stop with his country, which is why it was

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Speaker 3: testing European air defenses with the recent incursions in several

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Speaker 3: countries belonging to the NATO military Alliance. According to Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: in Poland, for example, jets were scrambled over the weekend

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Speaker 3: as Russia hit western Ukraine, which is on the Polish border.

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Speaker 3: The Polish military further described the actions which have become

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Speaker 3: routine since Polish and NATO aircraft shot down three Russian

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Speaker 3: drones in Poland's airspace a couple of weeks ago as preventative.

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Speaker 3: Moscow denied responsibility after Denmark said drones were flown over

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Speaker 3: its airports. Denmark itself has said the instance appeared to

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Speaker 3: be the work of a professional actor, without specifying who

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Speaker 3: this may be. And Estonia has accused Russia violating its

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Speaker 3: airspace with warplanes. Donald Trump has gone as far as

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Speaker 3: to say that NATO nations should shoot down Russian planes

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Speaker 3: in their airspace.

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Speaker 2: Definitely.

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Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin is pushing the boundaries here, and it's a

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Speaker 3: very very tense situation.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is, all right, a lighter one to

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Speaker 1: finish on now shine. Hundreds of coffee shops the size

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Speaker 1: of shipping containers are springing up along US roadways. The

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Speaker 1: goal here, the purpose is to serve Americans who want

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Speaker 1: to drive through caffeine.

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Speaker 2: Fixed.

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Speaker 3: This thing's just going game busters. So there's a bunch

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Speaker 3: of drive through change now. Dutch Brothers, Seven Brew, big

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Speaker 3: Bie Coffee, Scooters, Coffee, Black Rock Coffee Bar. They're basically

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Speaker 3: changing US food and beverage sector with an absolute obsessive

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Speaker 3: focus on speedy service.

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Speaker 2: Of them don't have seats.

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Speaker 1: You know, they could just focus on quality first.

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Speaker 2: I don't mean to beg such a cynic.

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Speaker 3: The kitchen areas as small as three hundred and fifty

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Speaker 3: square feet, so you can't move much in there, but

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Speaker 3: you don't want to move much because you need to

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Speaker 3: be fast. The drive through model, interestingly, is in total

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Speaker 3: contrast to Starbucks, which is, of course the biggest coffee chain.

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Speaker 3: It's investing heavily to make stor interiors more inviting places

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Speaker 3: to connect and gather. We did that story a few

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Speaker 3: months ago. They want to get people back into Starbucks now.

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Speaker 3: According to the FT, fewer than half of starbucks seventeen

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Speaker 3: thousand US stores featured drive through windows. Yet a record

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Speaker 3: fifty nine percent of US consumers who bought a cup

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Speaker 3: of coffee last year picked it.

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Speaker 2: Up at a drive through.

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Speaker 3: Amazing, that's huge, Shares of Dust Brothers, the largest list

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Speaker 3: of drive through coffee specialists is up sixty four percent

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Speaker 3: over the past year. Starbucks is down fourteen percent, and

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Speaker 3: there are now about thirty three and a half thousand

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Speaker 3: coffee chain shops in the US, including drive throughs. With

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Speaker 3: all the boom and with the growth boom in drive throughs.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there we go.

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Speaker 2: Up.

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Speaker 1: Next is Fear and Greed Q and a I mentioned

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Speaker 1: it before. It is essentially Fear and Greed the week Ahead,

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Speaker 1: the Old week Ahead with the kuk Our Resident Economist.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au,

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Speaker 1: which is also where you sign up for our free

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Speaker 1: daily newsletter, which, Sean, is another thing that is just

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Speaker 1: going gangbusters at the moment.

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Speaker 2: It's all that excellent content in there. Michael.

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Speaker 1: Oh, it certainly is, and it's in your inbox every

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Speaker 1: morning by six am. Why wouldn't you sign up? Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the twenty ninth of September twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.