WEBVTT - How big should Australia be?

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>Peter Dunton says he'll cut migrant numbers by one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people a year as soon as he gets in

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<v Speaker 1>the government. He says as part of his plan to

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<v Speaker 1>free up housing for Australians, but it also could impact

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<v Speaker 1>the workforce needed to build new hopes. Dunton is putting

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<v Speaker 1>a number to his plan just days after immigration dominated

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<v Speaker 1>the first Leader's debate.

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<v Speaker 2>How will cutting migration affect industries like healthcare and construction

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<v Speaker 2>and what will you do to ensure migration discussions remain

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<v Speaker 2>respectful and avoid demonizing migrants.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the point I made before was Abil Risby was

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<v Speaker 1>a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the

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<v Speaker 1>early nineties to two thousand and seven, when he left

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<v Speaker 1>his Deputy secretary. He says, the conversation we're having now

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<v Speaker 1>ignores the need for a long term population plan, addressing

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<v Speaker 1>how big our country should be and why today with

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<v Speaker 1>feed on the politics of population growth and the real

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<v Speaker 1>impact of immigration on the housing crisis. It's Saturday, April

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<v Speaker 1>twelfth at well, thanks for speaking with me again, pet

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't said he wants to see one hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>fewer new migrants come to Australia each year. In the

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<v Speaker 1>debate on Tuesday night, he said that every forty four

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<v Speaker 1>seconds a new migrant is entering Australia.

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<v Speaker 3>And a person is coming in every forty four seconds

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<v Speaker 3>into our country, and we haven't got the housing to

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<v Speaker 3>accommodate that.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you make of this goal?

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<v Speaker 2>It depends on what he is referring to, and I

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<v Speaker 2>assume he's referring to net overseas migration, which is the

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<v Speaker 2>arrival of permanent and long term entrance to Australia irrespective

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<v Speaker 2>of visa category or citizenship, and the departure of people

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<v Speaker 2>similarly long term or permanent. In twenty four to twenty five,

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<v Speaker 2>the Government is forecasting overseas migration at three hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>thirty five thousand. It is forecasting net overseas migration in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five twenty six at two hundred and sixty thousand.

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<v Speaker 2>If mister Dutton is saying he can deliver in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>five twenty six net overseas migration of one hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 2>less than the government's forecast, well I think it is

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<v Speaker 2>just about impossible to deliver that. Why is that there

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<v Speaker 2>are three reasons he won't do that. One, the labor

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<v Speaker 2>market is likely to still be relatively strong, that's certainly

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<v Speaker 2>what Treasury is forecasting, or subject to whatever mister Trump does,

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<v Speaker 2>things may change. Two, the legislative and regulatory changes mister

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<v Speaker 2>Dutton would need to make would probably take the whole

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<v Speaker 2>of the financial year before he could make them. The

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<v Speaker 2>third reason, he will encounter massive opposition to the cuts

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<v Speaker 2>he wants to make. Firstly from the National Party, and

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<v Speaker 2>they've made it clear there are a range of visas

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<v Speaker 2>they think are off limits, and secondly a range of

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<v Speaker 2>lobby groups in the business community. I would be very

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<v Speaker 2>surprised if mister Dutton is prepared to have a fight

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<v Speaker 2>with both of those.

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<v Speaker 1>So what type of changes would he need to make

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<v Speaker 1>to get anywhere near that target?

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<v Speaker 2>So one he has suggested he wants to cap student

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<v Speaker 2>visas or a number of students. In terms of net

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<v Speaker 2>overseas migration, in twenty three twenty four, just under fifty

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<v Speaker 2>percent of net overseas migrants were students. So if someone

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<v Speaker 2>wants to reduce the level of net overseas migration, if

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<v Speaker 2>you're not talking about students, you're not not really in

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<v Speaker 2>the game.

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<v Speaker 4>Despite their presence being worth fifty billion dollars a year

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<v Speaker 4>to the economy. The federal government now wants to legislate

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<v Speaker 4>student caps from twenty twenty five if the legislation.

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<v Speaker 2>Late last year, the Labor Party introduced legislation to give

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<v Speaker 2>government the power to cap visas. Separately, it's introduced or

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<v Speaker 2>announced where it would set those caps.

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<v Speaker 5>The two separate.

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<v Speaker 2>Actions one is get the power, second is to use

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<v Speaker 2>the power. Mister Dutton denied the government that power and

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<v Speaker 2>so if he does win the election, the first thing

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<v Speaker 2>he's going to have to do is go back to

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<v Speaker 2>Parliament and say, by the way, you know that power

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<v Speaker 2>I thought was really really really hopeless and I opposed it.

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<v Speaker 5>Could I have it now? Please?

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<v Speaker 1>Can you see him doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure he'll word it perhaps differently, but fundamentally that's

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<v Speaker 2>what he's going to have to do.

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<v Speaker 1>So speaking of international students, we've heard a lot about

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<v Speaker 1>how they are supposedly having an impact on the housing crisis,

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<v Speaker 1>with Peter Dutton saying that the reason he wants to

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<v Speaker 1>cut international student numbers is so that young Australians can

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<v Speaker 1>realize the dream of owning their own home.

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<v Speaker 3>I want desperately to make sure that we get an

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<v Speaker 3>opportunity for young people to believe in and achieve again

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<v Speaker 3>the dream of home ownership. There are about forty two

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<v Speaker 3>international students coming into our country for every one student

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<v Speaker 3>accommodation unit that's been approved, and that has had a

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<v Speaker 3>big impact.

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<v Speaker 1>What's your view on the impact international students are having

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<v Speaker 1>on the housing crisis.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the first thing to be said here is very

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<v Speaker 2>few students actually buy houses. They generally don't have the

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<v Speaker 2>money to afford to buy a house. So what they'll

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<v Speaker 2>impact is the rental market. That's true, but the rental

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<v Speaker 2>market they will impact will tend to be that market

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<v Speaker 2>very close to our universities, which tend to be in

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<v Speaker 2>the central business districts of our cities. Very few students

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<v Speaker 2>live out in the outer suburbs and commute into the

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<v Speaker 2>middle of the city to study. That's not where they

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<v Speaker 2>are concentrated.

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<v Speaker 1>What, in your view has prompted this debate on international students.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there's a few things worth saying here about what's

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<v Speaker 2>happened to student numbers. Firstly, we did have a steady

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<v Speaker 2>rise in student numbers leading up to COVID. We had

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<v Speaker 2>something over six hundred and fifty thousand students in Australia

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<v Speaker 2>prior to COVID, plus students who had applied onshore and

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<v Speaker 2>were in what's known as the bridging visa backlock. So

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<v Speaker 2>that's about the numbers before COVID. When COVID started, mister

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<v Speaker 2>Morrison famously said, we'd like you to go home, please.

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<v Speaker 5>Not held here compulsorily.

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<v Speaker 2>If they're not in a position to be able to

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<v Speaker 2>support themselves, then there is the alternative for them to

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<v Speaker 2>return to their home countries.

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<v Speaker 5>We still have quite and many did so.

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<v Speaker 2>The number of students in Australia fell sharply during COVID.

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<v Speaker 2>Towards the end of COVID, governments were very worried that

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<v Speaker 2>students wouldn't come back, so the Coalition government introduced a

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<v Speaker 2>range of policies to encourage students to come back, such

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<v Speaker 2>as unrestricted work rights, work as long as you like,

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<v Speaker 2>wherever you like, fee free applications. As a result of

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<v Speaker 2>those changes, combined with a really really strong labor market

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<v Speaker 2>during twenty twenty two, we had a massive boom in

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<v Speaker 2>the number of students and by twenty twenty three both

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<v Speaker 2>sides of politics were worried about the huge explosion in

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<v Speaker 2>the number of students. It's worth saying though that at

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<v Speaker 2>the end or towards the second half of twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 2>mister Dutton was saying the government needs to increase migration

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<v Speaker 2>and needs to do it quickly, but he wasn't confident

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<v Speaker 2>how quickly the Labor Government could increase migration. Nine months

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<v Speaker 2>later he was saying, the Labor Government has lost control

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<v Speaker 2>of migration. It's increased migration much too quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break, how big should Australia be?

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<v Speaker 1>Our population is coming up on twenty seven million now,

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<v Speaker 1>we're projected to double that in the next eighty years.

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<v Speaker 1>So how have passed governments approached population planning? Is this

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<v Speaker 1>growth by design?

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<v Speaker 5>No?

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<v Speaker 2>Most governments have shied away from talking about population. They

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<v Speaker 2>did that right through the nineties. Even though there were

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<v Speaker 2>parliamentary committees recommending the need for a population policy, they

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<v Speaker 2>avoided it. They didn't want to talk about population. Mister

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<v Speaker 2>Rudd famously in two thousand and seven eight said he

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<v Speaker 2>believed in a big Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>I actually believe in a big Australia. I make no

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<v Speaker 5>apology for that. Everyone jumped all over him.

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<v Speaker 2>That was the Big Australia Movement's biggest moment, its founder

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<v Speaker 2>was dislodged.

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<v Speaker 3>His idea sent packing.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't believe in simply hurtling down a track to

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<v Speaker 2>a thirty six million or forty million population. Ever since then,

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<v Speaker 2>no government has been keen to talk about population. Having

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<v Speaker 2>said that, in twenty nineteen, mister Morrison introduced a very

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<v Speaker 2>grandly titled document called the Future of Australia's Population. The

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<v Speaker 2>problem with the document is it not once mentioned what

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<v Speaker 2>he thought the future of Australia's population should be. He

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<v Speaker 2>not once mentioned what future net overseas migration it should be.

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<v Speaker 5>He never once.

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<v Speaker 2>Discussed what the fertility rate would be or life expectancy

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<v Speaker 2>would be. How he was talking about the future of

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<v Speaker 2>the population without mentioning any of those things is an

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<v Speaker 2>absolute mystery to me.

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<v Speaker 1>Sounds like a bit of an oversight.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I think it was a marketing exercise.

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<v Speaker 1>What were you expecting out of that document before you

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<v Speaker 1>read it?

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<v Speaker 2>Able, I was hoping for a population policy, something that

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<v Speaker 2>talked about our future population. But we didn't talk about

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<v Speaker 2>the future population in that document at all. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>two months later, mister Friedenberg issued his budget papers in

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<v Speaker 2>which you had to go to Budget Paper number three,

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<v Speaker 2>Appendix A page about eight or nine before you got

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<v Speaker 2>to what mister Friedenberg was forecasting was going to be

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<v Speaker 2>our population and net overseas migration for the next four years.

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<v Speaker 2>He was, in fact forecasting in that document over a

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<v Speaker 2>four year period, the largest level of absolute population growth

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<v Speaker 2>since a period in the nineteen sixties. It's beyond me.

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<v Speaker 2>How two months ago, in March twenty nineteen, mister Morrison

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<v Speaker 2>was talking about a population plan with no mention about population,

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<v Speaker 2>and mister Fredenberg was talking about a back in black

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<v Speaker 2>budget with massive increases in population forecast. But in Appendix

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<v Speaker 2>three of Budget Paper three.

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<v Speaker 1>What you've been laying out of all is that politicians

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<v Speaker 1>love talking about cutting immigration well at the same time

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<v Speaker 1>forecasting massive population growth in budget papers to boost the

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<v Speaker 1>economic outlook. We saw that with the Coalition, So once

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<v Speaker 1>Labor got in, what was their approach?

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<v Speaker 2>I was disappointed that the Labor government did not in

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<v Speaker 2>when it commissioned the Parkinson Review, the review of Australia's

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<v Speaker 2>migration system, deliberately left out the question of immigration levels.

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<v Speaker 2>It essentially said to mister Parkinson, we'd like you to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about everything about migration, but just tell us the level.

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<v Speaker 2>We don't want to know about the level. We'll work

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<v Speaker 2>that out ourselves. Frankly, it is impossible to design a

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<v Speaker 2>migration system unless you start with the level, because if

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<v Speaker 2>you don't have a level in mind, then you're basically

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<v Speaker 2>just making up numbers and policies as you go along,

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<v Speaker 2>and you don't care about.

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<v Speaker 5>What they add up to.

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<v Speaker 2>Governments think the moment you start talking about a population plan,

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<v Speaker 2>you will be tard with the big Australia brush. Irrespective

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<v Speaker 2>of whatever you number you forecast, you'll be saying, ah,

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<v Speaker 2>you're Big Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm not.

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<v Speaker 2>And politicians love pointing at people and saying I don't

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<v Speaker 2>believe in big Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>You do, and therefore you are bad. I am good.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's say hypothetically a government wanted to do this properly,

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<v Speaker 1>to have a well thought out population and migration policy.

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<v Speaker 1>What would that look like in your view?

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<v Speaker 2>A useful thing to understand in this context is that immigration,

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<v Speaker 2>mainly because it targets young people, tends to slow the

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<v Speaker 2>rate at which we age. We age more slowly. But

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<v Speaker 2>the second thing that is often not understood is if

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<v Speaker 2>you've moved to a situation of zero net migration, within

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<v Speaker 2>the next ten to fifteen years, we would experience a

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<v Speaker 2>situation where deaths exceeded berths for the first time in

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<v Speaker 2>our history. Now I'm not saying we can avoid the

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<v Speaker 2>point in the future where death succeed berths, but I

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<v Speaker 2>would not be recommending to a government. Let's head towards

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<v Speaker 2>that as fast as we can, and you want to

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<v Speaker 2>use the migration program to fill skill gaps that you

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<v Speaker 2>can't in the medium to long term fill. So, for example,

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<v Speaker 2>there is no chance we will have enough nurses over

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<v Speaker 2>the next ten or twenty years for all of us,

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<v Speaker 2>including me baby boomers who are going to be desperately

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<v Speaker 2>needing health and age care support. There is no chance

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<v Speaker 2>we will have enough construction trades over the next decade.

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<v Speaker 2>That's carpenter's, plumber's, brick layers, etc. So you've got to

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<v Speaker 2>take that into account. The second would be what are

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<v Speaker 2>the speed limits from an infrastructure, service delivery, housing etc.

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<v Speaker 2>Perspective for net overseas migration, And that boils down to, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>what is the rate at which we can develop infrastructure

0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.880
<v Speaker 2>and housing etc. And service delivery? And there are speed

0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.959
<v Speaker 2>limits to those things, and we should understand those speed limits.

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:26.480
<v Speaker 2>You also need to take into account family migration, You

0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.280
<v Speaker 2>need to take into account our various free trade agreements,

0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:31.520
<v Speaker 2>and you need to take into account whatever we're going

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 2>to do from a humanitarian and refugee perspective. You've got

0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:37.439
<v Speaker 2>to bring all of that together into a sensible plan.

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:42.000
<v Speaker 1>And without a plan, that leave the question of migrations

0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>acceptable to politics.

0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:48.080
<v Speaker 2>Oh, absolutely absolutely, And in many ways the lack of

0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:53.560
<v Speaker 2>a population plan has contributed to the polarization. Not the

0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:56.599
<v Speaker 2>only thing, but it has contributed to the polarization of

0:13:56.640 --> 0:14:00.319
<v Speaker 2>debate on immigration, not just in Australia but in other places.

0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:04.080
<v Speaker 1>And finally, appl you spent more time than probably anyone

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.960
<v Speaker 1>thinking about Australia's migration program. You've dedicated your life to

0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 1>these questions about the makeup of this country. So in

0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 1>your view, how big should Australia be.

0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 5>That's a good question.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm not sure we can ever assume that we

0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 2>can reach a level of population and then stabilize at

0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:29.200
<v Speaker 2>that level forever. I doubt whether it's going to look

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 2>like that. It's more likely to look like a curve.

0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:35.840
<v Speaker 2>If you think back to your high school days, think

0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 2>of a parabola. So the question is where does it

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<v Speaker 2>peak before it starts to decline, Because the period nineteen

0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.800
<v Speaker 2>fifty to twenty fifty will be a unique period in

0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:54.400
<v Speaker 2>human history. That is, the human race just exploded in

0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:58.480
<v Speaker 2>that one hundred years. We've never had population increase like

0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 2>that on the planet, and after twenty fifty we'll never

0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:07.080
<v Speaker 2>have it again because steadily the fertility rate of all

0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.560
<v Speaker 2>countries around the world is falling, and he's projected to

0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 2>keep falling.

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:14.680
<v Speaker 1>Abel, thank you so much for your time.

0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 5>You're most welcome, Danny.

0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Seven Am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and

0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 1>The Saturday Paper. It's made by Atticus Basto, Shane Anderson,

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<v Speaker 1>Chris Dangate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McVie, Travis Evans,

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