1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:07,110 Michael Thompson: The Matildas have been breaking records, but a World Cup 2 00:00:07,110 --> 00:00:11,459 Michael Thompson: public holiday is proving controversial for businesses, land sales have 3 00:00:11,460 --> 00:00:15,479 Michael Thompson: plummeted as prices surge, and the Indigenous Voice to Parliament 4 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,840 Michael Thompson: continues to divide the Liberal Party with another leading figure 5 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,829 Michael Thompson: declaring he'll vote yes. Welcome to Fear & Greed Business News, 6 00:00:22,829 --> 00:00:26,250 Michael Thompson: Australia's best business podcast. It is Monday the 14th of 7 00:00:26,250 --> 00:00:30,719 Michael Thompson: August, 2023. I'm Michael Thompson and Sean Aylmer is still 8 00:00:30,719 --> 00:00:34,498 Michael Thompson: away on holidays enjoying his overseas jaunt and so instead 9 00:00:34,500 --> 00:00:37,320 Michael Thompson: I'm joined by Jennifer Duke. Jen, good morning. 10 00:00:37,470 --> 00:00:38,310 Jennifer Duke: Good morning. 11 00:00:39,090 --> 00:00:40,710 Michael Thompson: We've got a great show coming up today, there is 12 00:00:40,710 --> 00:00:43,650 Michael Thompson: plenty happening, especially after the Matildas over the weekend, which was 13 00:00:43,740 --> 00:00:45,630 Michael Thompson: just spectacular and we'll get to that in a sec. 14 00:00:45,870 --> 00:00:47,700 Michael Thompson: But I want to mention, you have an interview coming 15 00:00:47,700 --> 00:00:50,040 Michael Thompson: up after the show with one of our favorite guests 16 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,409 Michael Thompson: here on Fear & Greed, you're speaking to Matthew Kidman from 17 00:00:52,409 --> 00:00:53,759 Michael Thompson: Centennial Asset Management. 18 00:00:54,180 --> 00:00:56,490 Jennifer Duke: Yeah, we were talking about what he's watching during reporting 19 00:00:56,490 --> 00:00:59,520 Jennifer Duke: season, and an interesting chat about Baby Bunting as well. 20 00:00:59,730 --> 00:01:01,860 Michael Thompson: Well, it is a great one for investors. It's always 21 00:01:01,860 --> 00:01:05,910 Michael Thompson: a great one whenever we speak to Matthew because he 22 00:01:05,910 --> 00:01:08,309 Michael Thompson: names so many companies and he gives some details about 23 00:01:08,309 --> 00:01:10,080 Michael Thompson: why he likes them or why he doesn't like them. 24 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:12,239 Michael Thompson: So it is just a fantastic one to listen to. 25 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,309 Michael Thompson: We are not an investing podcast and you should seek 26 00:01:14,310 --> 00:01:17,490 Michael Thompson: professional advice before you make any investment decisions. But Matthew 27 00:01:17,490 --> 00:01:19,110 Michael Thompson: is a great person to listen to just to get 28 00:01:19,110 --> 00:01:21,360 Michael Thompson: a few ideas. It's coming up a little bit later 29 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,179 Michael Thompson: on, well worth sticking around for. But the main story 30 00:01:24,179 --> 00:01:26,429 Michael Thompson: this morning, Jen, we need to talk about this, the 31 00:01:26,429 --> 00:01:30,300 Michael Thompson: Matildas have broken a raft of records over the weekend. 32 00:01:30,900 --> 00:01:34,740 Michael Thompson: It is just extraordinary. But, but the possibility of a Women's 33 00:01:34,740 --> 00:01:37,440 Michael Thompson: World Cup win, and I think we're all looking towards 34 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,378 Michael Thompson: the end here and being not even just optimistic now, 35 00:01:40,380 --> 00:01:42,330 Michael Thompson: I think we're being realistic in thinking that this could 36 00:01:42,330 --> 00:01:44,820 Michael Thompson: happen, it's causing a bit of tension in Canberra. 37 00:01:45,599 --> 00:01:48,419 Jennifer Duke: That's right. I think pretty much everyone was watching Saturday 38 00:01:48,450 --> 00:01:51,750 Jennifer Duke: night's penalty shootout against France. It was the most watched 39 00:01:51,750 --> 00:01:54,960 Jennifer Duke: sports event in more than 20 years. That was since 40 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:59,070 Jennifer Duke: Kathy Freeman's Sydney Olympics 400 meter final. Turns out that 41 00:01:59,070 --> 00:02:01,799 Jennifer Duke: over 4. 2 million of us watched the broadcast on 42 00:02:01,799 --> 00:02:05,850 Jennifer Duke: Channel Seven. That's according to ratings agency OzTAM, and another 472, 43 00:02:05,850 --> 00:02:10,530 Jennifer Duke: 000 viewers watched on Seven Plus afterwards. So Seven actually 44 00:02:10,530 --> 00:02:12,959 Jennifer Duke: pushed back its news bulletin by an hour to accommodate 45 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:14,760 Jennifer Duke: the game, I reckon that was a pretty good decision. 46 00:02:15,719 --> 00:02:18,480 Michael Thompson: You know what, it does look like a reasonable decision. And 47 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,190 Michael Thompson: I'll tell you what, there would've been some rather cranky 48 00:02:20,190 --> 00:02:23,069 Michael Thompson: people if it had suddenly cut to the news in 49 00:02:23,070 --> 00:02:26,790 Michael Thompson: the middle of the game. But it looks like the 50 00:02:26,790 --> 00:02:30,210 Michael Thompson: rights were a pretty good business deal for Seven. 51 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,320 Jennifer Duke: Well, Seven bought the sub- license rights to 15 matches 52 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,530 Jennifer Duke: off of Optus for just over $ 4 million. That's according 53 00:02:37,530 --> 00:02:40,169 Jennifer Duke: to The Australian. And at that value, I'd say it's 54 00:02:40,169 --> 00:02:42,570 Jennifer Duke: probably one of the best bargains for sports rights that 55 00:02:42,570 --> 00:02:45,180 Jennifer Duke: I can think of in recent years. It'll have plenty 56 00:02:45,180 --> 00:02:48,690 Jennifer Duke: of broadcasters and codes thinking twice about the commercial potential 57 00:02:48,690 --> 00:02:51,630 Jennifer Duke: of women's sports. And that's probably regardless of what happens 58 00:02:51,630 --> 00:02:53,790 Jennifer Duke: next, which could be even more records getting kicked to 59 00:02:53,790 --> 00:02:54,210 Jennifer Duke: the curb. 60 00:02:55,020 --> 00:02:58,199 Michael Thompson: So what does happen next, what are the next steps? 61 00:02:58,199 --> 00:03:00,000 Michael Thompson: And then we'll get to the controversy in a minute. 62 00:03:00,209 --> 00:03:02,940 Jennifer Duke: Sure. So the Matildas are heading to their first ever World 63 00:03:02,940 --> 00:03:06,330 Jennifer Duke: Cup semifinal, and will play against England on Wednesday. And 64 00:03:06,330 --> 00:03:09,300 Jennifer Duke: if they win, Euromonitor International has forecast they'll be in 65 00:03:09,300 --> 00:03:11,010 Jennifer Duke: a World Cup match that will be watched by more 66 00:03:11,010 --> 00:03:15,089 Jennifer Duke: than two billion broadcast viewers worldwide. And Airwallex, it's global accountants 67 00:03:15,089 --> 00:03:17,940 Jennifer Duke: estimates the World Cup has driven a $ 7. 6 billion 68 00:03:18,270 --> 00:03:20,760 Jennifer Duke: economic boost for retail and travel industries. 69 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,910 Michael Thompson: All right, that all obviously sounds like good news, great 70 00:03:23,910 --> 00:03:26,760 Michael Thompson: news. And this is very much a leading question, Jen, 71 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,520 Michael Thompson: because I know what I want to discuss here, why 72 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,080 Michael Thompson: has this all been so controversial? 73 00:03:31,679 --> 00:03:34,619 Jennifer Duke: Oh, so Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is eager for a public 74 00:03:34,619 --> 00:03:37,349 Jennifer Duke: holiday if our dream team wins the World Cup on 75 00:03:37,350 --> 00:03:39,990 Jennifer Duke: August 20. And obviously a lot of us are cheering 76 00:03:39,990 --> 00:03:42,450 Jennifer Duke: him on for that, including me. But the proposal of 77 00:03:42,450 --> 00:03:45,809 Jennifer Duke: an extra surprise public holiday is concerning business leaders who 78 00:03:45,809 --> 00:03:48,659 Jennifer Duke: are saying it's no free kick. So the Council of 79 00:03:48,660 --> 00:03:51,509 Jennifer Duke: Small Business Owners of Australia in particular is pretty worried 80 00:03:51,509 --> 00:03:53,820 Jennifer Duke: about its members needing to stump up that extra cash 81 00:03:53,820 --> 00:03:57,420 Jennifer Duke: for the penalty rates. They've been reminding us it's 250%. 82 00:03:57,810 --> 00:03:59,880 Jennifer Duke: But the Prime Minister is saying that public holidays lead 83 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:03,899 Jennifer Duke: to more economic activity and that benefits businesses. National's leader, 84 00:04:03,900 --> 00:04:06,479 Jennifer Duke: David Littleproud though doesn't support the idea because of the 85 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,199 Jennifer Duke: effect on those local businesses. Ultimately it's all up to 86 00:04:10,199 --> 00:04:11,370 Jennifer Duke: the state and territory leaders though. 87 00:04:11,370 --> 00:04:15,720 Michael Thompson: I've got to say, Jen, won't somebody please think of the children. 88 00:04:15,810 --> 00:04:18,510 Michael Thompson: Imagine the kids all staying at home. I vote for 89 00:04:18,510 --> 00:04:20,219 Michael Thompson: one that they still have to go to school on 90 00:04:20,220 --> 00:04:21,029 Michael Thompson: this public holiday. 91 00:04:21,178 --> 00:04:22,770 Jennifer Duke: You're the worst, that's so mean. 92 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:24,390 Michael Thompson: I'm sorry. 93 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,149 Jennifer Duke: I reckon it's probably going to come up at national 94 00:04:27,150 --> 00:04:30,359 Jennifer Duke: cabinet this Wednesday in Brisbane so that the state and 95 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:32,790 Jennifer Duke: territory leaders can make a decision. We know that New 96 00:04:32,790 --> 00:04:35,849 Jennifer Duke: South Wales' premier, Chris Minns, is already supportive of it, 97 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,089 Jennifer Duke: but Dan Andrews in Victoria has been a little bit more circumspect. 98 00:04:39,450 --> 00:04:41,880 Michael Thompson: Yeah, this is one of those spectacular stories where business 99 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,480 Michael Thompson: and sport collide. And it is just fantastic to talk about and 100 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,089 Michael Thompson: to see it all playing out over the weekend. And 101 00:04:48,089 --> 00:04:50,039 Michael Thompson: I suspect it's all anybody's going to be talking about 102 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,460 Michael Thompson: all week. Anyway, we must move on, Jen. Local markets, 103 00:04:53,460 --> 00:04:54,690 Michael Thompson: how did they perform on Friday? 104 00:04:55,170 --> 00:05:02,639 Jennifer Duke: The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.24% to 7340 points. Consumer discretionary, gold 105 00:05:02,639 --> 00:05:05,669 Jennifer Duke: and healthcare performed best, while energy and resources led the 106 00:05:05,670 --> 00:05:07,620 Jennifer Duke: declines. Overall the week was up 0.2%. 107 00:05:08,850 --> 00:05:11,550 Michael Thompson: Yeah, and of course the big focus is obviously reporting season. 108 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,779 Jennifer Duke: Absolutely. Last week was a big reporting week with CBA, 109 00:05:15,779 --> 00:05:19,019 Jennifer Duke: REA Group, James Hardy and Suncorp all posting results. And 110 00:05:19,020 --> 00:05:21,449 Jennifer Duke: this week we've got a pretty busy schedule with Lendlease, 111 00:05:21,450 --> 00:05:25,049 Jennifer Duke: Domain, Carsales, Seek, Mirvac and Origin all among those due to report. 112 00:05:25,740 --> 00:05:27,630 Michael Thompson: And I've got to say this, you'll hear it all 113 00:05:27,630 --> 00:05:29,729 Michael Thompson: here on Fear & Greed. And we cover a lot in 114 00:05:29,730 --> 00:05:32,220 Michael Thompson: our afternoon report as well, which is an important one 115 00:05:32,610 --> 00:05:34,589 Michael Thompson: to mention because we don't give that the attention that 116 00:05:34,589 --> 00:05:36,479 Michael Thompson: it deserves., We don't promote it enough. It is on 117 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,819 Michael Thompson: every afternoon, you can hear it just after 5: 00 118 00:05:38,820 --> 00:05:40,709 Michael Thompson: PM and you can hear all of the big results 119 00:05:40,709 --> 00:05:44,339 Michael Thompson: throughout the day. What else is happening in international markets, Jen? 120 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,200 Jennifer Duke: So the S&P 500 closed down 0. 61% for the week. This 121 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,839 Jennifer Duke: was after data showing US inflation may be nearing its 122 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,230 Jennifer Duke: peak. The tech heavy NASDAQ fell 0. 68% for the 123 00:05:55,230 --> 00:05:58,529 Jennifer Duke: final trading day. And the DOW was up 0. 3. 124 00:05:58,529 --> 00:06:01,440 Jennifer Duke: In terms of companies, Apple is flat over the week, 125 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,500 Jennifer Duke: ending a poor performing fortnight after device sales were relatively 126 00:06:04,500 --> 00:06:08,399 Jennifer Duke: soft. NewsCorp is up about 5.7% over the week, after 127 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,070 Jennifer Duke: a 75% drop in net profits over the past six 128 00:06:11,070 --> 00:06:13,799 Jennifer Duke: months, but a major cost- cutting program of more than 129 00:06:13,799 --> 00:06:15,270 Jennifer Duke: US $ 160 million. 130 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,420 Michael Thompson: All right, there is plenty happening, and we'll be back 131 00:06:18,420 --> 00:06:20,039 Michael Thompson: in a moment with the rest of the day's business 132 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:29,969 Michael Thompson: news. Jen, residential property activity picked up over the weekend with 1, 133 00:06:29,969 --> 00:06:35,339 Michael Thompson: 911 homes heading to auction, and sales holding up pretty well. 134 00:06:35,339 --> 00:06:38,910 Jennifer Duke: Yeah, the past weekend was busier than the week before, when 1, 135 00:06:38,910 --> 00:06:43,500 Jennifer Duke: 746 homes went under the hammer. And it's also significantly 136 00:06:43,500 --> 00:06:47,759 Jennifer Duke: up from the year before's 1, 611 homes up for auction. The 137 00:06:47,759 --> 00:06:50,849 Jennifer Duke: preliminary clearance rate was pretty consistent week on week though, 138 00:06:50,849 --> 00:06:54,479 Jennifer Duke: around 71% nationally, on CoreLogic figures. In Sydney, of 772 139 00:06:55,830 --> 00:06:58,589 Jennifer Duke: auctions, three out of four sold; and in Melbourne, just 140 00:06:58,589 --> 00:07:00,510 Jennifer Duke: under 70% of homes sold at auction. 141 00:07:00,870 --> 00:07:03,570 Michael Thompson: Yeah, it seems that sellers and buyers have been getting 142 00:07:03,570 --> 00:07:06,420 Michael Thompson: a bit nervous recently with consumer sentiment down. 143 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,150 Jennifer Duke: That's true, but there were some good signals at the 144 00:07:09,150 --> 00:07:11,190 Jennifer Duke: end of last week that the rate rise cycle might 145 00:07:11,190 --> 00:07:13,560 Jennifer Duke: be coming to an end. RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, was 146 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,040 Jennifer Duke: noticeably more dovish, particularly in his language about future rate 147 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,690 Jennifer Duke: hikes now being a possibility. 148 00:07:18,990 --> 00:07:21,719 Michael Thompson: This is an interesting one then, Jen, leading very neatly 149 00:07:21,719 --> 00:07:24,900 Michael Thompson: into this story. A supply crunch is coming for the 150 00:07:24,900 --> 00:07:28,949 Michael Thompson: Australian housing market with development projects and land sales falling. 151 00:07:29,549 --> 00:07:33,360 Jennifer Duke: That's right. Residential land sales have fallen 37% in volume 152 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,730 Jennifer Duke: over the 12 months to March, with new home building 153 00:07:35,730 --> 00:07:39,750 Jennifer Duke: to slow. That's according to a Housing Industry Association/ CoreLogic 154 00:07:39,780 --> 00:07:43,230 Jennifer Duke: residential land report, which monitors 51 housing markets across the 155 00:07:43,230 --> 00:07:45,509 Jennifer Duke: country. And the price per square meter for a lot 156 00:07:45,509 --> 00:07:48,389 Jennifer Duke: in Sydney is now 94% higher than the average of 157 00:07:48,389 --> 00:07:51,930 Jennifer Duke: all other capital cities. A decade ago the Sydney premium 158 00:07:51,930 --> 00:07:53,190 Jennifer Duke: was about 19%. 159 00:07:54,390 --> 00:07:58,500 Michael Thompson: That's pretty extraordinary. That is a huge, huge jump. Surely, 160 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:01,379 Michael Thompson: surely that adds to the calls, and there's been plenty 161 00:08:01,380 --> 00:08:04,619 Michael Thompson: of them, for policymakers to act. And I know it 162 00:08:04,619 --> 00:08:07,110 Michael Thompson: has been stalled for a bit, but surely this pushes 163 00:08:07,110 --> 00:08:07,920 Michael Thompson: them to do something. 164 00:08:08,250 --> 00:08:12,239 Jennifer Duke: Yeah, I think that's definitely true. Housing supply and affordability 165 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,910 Jennifer Duke: is due to come up at national cabinet discussions this 166 00:08:14,910 --> 00:08:17,279 Jennifer Duke: week, so it's a space to watch. It's also worth 167 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,039 Jennifer Duke: noting that REA Group reported the number of new projects 168 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,279 Jennifer Duke: launched by developers fell 41% year- on- year in the 169 00:08:23,279 --> 00:08:26,070 Jennifer Duke: three months to June 30. And Domain's reporting this week. 170 00:08:26,460 --> 00:08:27,930 Michael Thompson: All right, now we mentioned this one at the top 171 00:08:27,930 --> 00:08:30,570 Michael Thompson: of the show, Jen, New South Wales Liberal leader, Mark 172 00:08:30,570 --> 00:08:34,140 Michael Thompson: Speakman, will vote in favor of the Vice to Parliament. 173 00:08:34,830 --> 00:08:37,650 Jennifer Duke: Speakman said the potential rewards of the Voice outweigh the 174 00:08:37,650 --> 00:08:41,400 Jennifer Duke: risks. And he reflected that poor outcomes for indigenous Australians 175 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,699 Jennifer Duke: are the nation's biggest policy failure. But his position is 176 00:08:44,700 --> 00:08:47,640 Jennifer Duke: in direct contradiction with the leader of the federal opposition, 177 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,549 Jennifer Duke: Peter Dutton, the New South Wales opposition is not making 178 00:08:50,550 --> 00:08:53,430 Jennifer Duke: it mandatory for MPs to take any particular position though. 179 00:08:54,090 --> 00:08:56,280 Michael Thompson: All right, let's do a quick roll call I suppose, 180 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,309 Michael Thompson: who else in the Liberal Party is supporting the Voice 181 00:08:59,309 --> 00:09:03,330 Michael Thompson: because it is becoming such a big, big political issue? 182 00:09:03,900 --> 00:09:07,260 Jennifer Duke: So on a state and territory leader basis, Tasmanian premier, 183 00:09:07,260 --> 00:09:11,069 Jennifer Duke: Jeremy Rockcliff, is supporting the Voice, as is ACT opposition 184 00:09:11,070 --> 00:09:14,669 Jennifer Duke: leader, Elizabeth Lee. It's unclear how Victorian Liberal leader, John 185 00:09:14,670 --> 00:09:17,699 Jennifer Duke: Pesutto, is planning to vote. And in general the Liberals 186 00:09:17,699 --> 00:09:20,760 Jennifer Duke: oppose a referendum but are supportive of legislative local and 187 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:25,080 Jennifer Duke: regional voices as an alternative. Interestingly, over the weekend, National's 188 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,470 Jennifer Duke: leader, David Littleproud, said he wouldn't support a legislative voice though. 189 00:09:29,250 --> 00:09:32,400 Michael Thompson: Also he wouldn't support the alternative put forward by Peter Dutton. 190 00:09:32,610 --> 00:09:33,239 Jennifer Duke: That's right. 191 00:09:33,450 --> 00:09:36,358 Michael Thompson: Okay. This just gets even more complicated and even more 192 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,570 Michael Thompson: messy by the day. All right, moving away from politics, 193 00:09:39,870 --> 00:09:42,838 Michael Thompson: slightly actually, we're still kind of linked. The big four 194 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:49,708 Michael Thompson: consultancy firms were paid $1. 8 billion above expectations for government 195 00:09:49,710 --> 00:09:51,479 Michael Thompson: contracts in the past 10 years. 196 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,110 Jennifer Duke: So a report by the Center for Public Integrity found 197 00:09:55,110 --> 00:09:57,270 Jennifer Duke: almost one in five contracts that was won by the 198 00:09:57,270 --> 00:10:00,718 Jennifer Duke: major firms was later revised upwards beyond what was originally 199 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:05,010 Jennifer Duke: estimated. And the researchers analyzed the AusTender reported contracts since 2012, 200 00:10:05,010 --> 00:10:09,660 Jennifer Duke: 2013, and they found that taxpayers actually paid 43% more 201 00:10:09,660 --> 00:10:12,149 Jennifer Duke: than they initially agreed to for Commonwealth procurements. 202 00:10:12,540 --> 00:10:16,620 Michael Thompson: 43% above is huge. And it is not a good look. 203 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,108 Jennifer Duke: Yeah, it's really not. But the Center said some of 204 00:10:19,110 --> 00:10:21,809 Jennifer Duke: this discrepancy could be due to firms low balling to 205 00:10:21,809 --> 00:10:24,509 Jennifer Duke: achieve the work in the first place. It's now encouraging 206 00:10:24,509 --> 00:10:27,900 Jennifer Duke: government departments to resort to external advisors only in specific 207 00:10:27,900 --> 00:10:31,050 Jennifer Duke: situations of acute need, cap the use of consultants and 208 00:10:31,050 --> 00:10:33,059 Jennifer Duke: broaden those procurement and disclosure rules. 209 00:10:34,410 --> 00:10:38,100 Michael Thompson: All right, how about this one, Jen? Investments in artificial intelligence are forecast to reach $ 210 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:43,320 Michael Thompson: 200 billion worldwide by 2025 according to new research from 211 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:44,218 Michael Thompson: Goldman Sachs. 212 00:10:44,849 --> 00:10:47,219 Jennifer Duke: Yeah, it's huge. The investments are likely to be so 213 00:10:47,219 --> 00:10:50,250 Jennifer Duke: significant that the Global Investment Bank reckons it will surpass 214 00:10:50,250 --> 00:10:53,100 Jennifer Duke: the impact of electricity and computers on economic growth in 215 00:10:53,100 --> 00:10:55,828 Jennifer Duke: the long run. In the US, those two technologies led 216 00:10:55,830 --> 00:10:59,370 Jennifer Duke: to a 2% increase in GDP. And Goldman Sachs' researchers 217 00:10:59,370 --> 00:11:02,759 Jennifer Duke: expect generative AI to boost global labor productivity by more 218 00:11:02,759 --> 00:11:05,099 Jennifer Duke: than one percentage point in the decade after its use 219 00:11:05,100 --> 00:11:06,120 Jennifer Duke: becomes widespread. 220 00:11:06,540 --> 00:11:10,110 Michael Thompson: Okay, so what does this mean then on a global scale, 221 00:11:10,260 --> 00:11:11,218 Michael Thompson: I'm just processing that? 222 00:11:12,749 --> 00:11:15,480 Jennifer Duke: Look, in the long term they estimate that AI investment 223 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,718 Jennifer Duke: could rise to as much as 2.5% of GDP in some 224 00:11:18,719 --> 00:11:21,749 Jennifer Duke: of the major leading economies. Half of the $ 200 billion 225 00:11:22,139 --> 00:11:24,480 Jennifer Duke: that they're expecting will be in the US on their 226 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,598 Jennifer Duke: estimates. They did however warn of over enthusiasm in the 227 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:31,260 Jennifer Duke: markets leading to overpaying, similar to the 1990s dotcom bubble. 228 00:11:31,260 --> 00:11:32,850 Jennifer Duke: So Aussie investors beware. 229 00:11:33,420 --> 00:11:37,319 Michael Thompson: A very, very good time to remind everybody that it's 230 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:41,129 Michael Thompson: always worthwhile getting professional advice before making investment decisions. We 231 00:11:41,129 --> 00:11:43,439 Michael Thompson: just try and slip that in whenever we can, Jen. 232 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:44,100 Jennifer Duke: Absolutely. 233 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,300 Michael Thompson: Now, mental health not- for- profit Beyond Blue is set 234 00:11:48,300 --> 00:11:52,230 Michael Thompson: to restructure and possibly cut jobs after a significant fall 235 00:11:52,230 --> 00:11:53,219 Michael Thompson: in donations. 236 00:11:54,059 --> 00:11:56,910 Jennifer Duke: Charities have been facing a really tough time as donations 237 00:11:56,910 --> 00:11:59,400 Jennifer Duke: drop during the cost of living crisis. And Beyond Blue 238 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,819 Jennifer Duke: has seen donations drop $ 18 million over the past two 239 00:12:02,820 --> 00:12:05,458 Jennifer Duke: years. And the Brisbane Times is reporting that a change 240 00:12:05,460 --> 00:12:08,250 Jennifer Duke: in the operational structure of the mental health charity is 241 00:12:08,250 --> 00:12:13,199 Jennifer Duke: therefore underway. In 2020/ 21, Beyond Blue's philanthropic income reached a 242 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:17,279 Jennifer Duke: record $ 35.7 million, but in the last financial year it 243 00:12:17,279 --> 00:12:20,309 Jennifer Duke: was just 17. 8 million. And at the same time 244 00:12:20,309 --> 00:12:23,160 Jennifer Duke: many charities are facing this rising demand for their services 245 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:26,700 Jennifer Duke: due to pressure on households as costs and associated stress increase. 246 00:12:27,210 --> 00:12:31,589 Michael Thompson: Yeah, that's pretty worrying. Now, the weakening Australian dollar is 247 00:12:31,590 --> 00:12:35,909 Michael Thompson: becoming a threat to inflation with economists keeping a close 248 00:12:35,910 --> 00:12:38,730 Michael Thompson: eye on the rising cost of imports. This is your 249 00:12:38,730 --> 00:12:40,590 Michael Thompson: kind of story, isn't it? Because you are of course 250 00:12:40,590 --> 00:12:43,890 Michael Thompson: by day the economics correspondent for Capital Brief, so you 251 00:12:43,890 --> 00:12:46,348 Michael Thompson: will just be going, " This is a cracker of a story." 252 00:12:46,469 --> 00:12:49,110 Jennifer Duke: That's right. Us economics nerds really enjoy this sort of 253 00:12:49,110 --> 00:12:52,799 Jennifer Duke: information. But it's a combination of lower iron ore prices, 254 00:12:53,100 --> 00:12:56,280 Jennifer Duke: the shrinking of local manufacturing and low interest rates compared 255 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,650 Jennifer Duke: to other economies are expected to keep a lid on 256 00:12:58,650 --> 00:13:01,290 Jennifer Duke: the Aussie dollar going forward. And this is raising concerns 257 00:13:01,290 --> 00:13:03,990 Jennifer Duke: among economists as it could keep inflation higher for longer. 258 00:13:04,410 --> 00:13:08,190 Jennifer Duke: Bloomberg economics analysis suggests import prices will have an even 259 00:13:08,190 --> 00:13:11,129 Jennifer Duke: bigger impact on inflation now than in the past. And 260 00:13:11,129 --> 00:13:14,040 Jennifer Duke: this is because tradable goods now make up about 46% 261 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,290 Jennifer Duke: of those in a typical basket which is used to 262 00:13:16,290 --> 00:13:19,620 Jennifer Duke: measure CPI, and in the same period in 2017 it was 37%. 263 00:13:21,179 --> 00:13:23,759 Michael Thompson: Okay, one last one before we get to international news. 264 00:13:23,759 --> 00:13:27,179 Michael Thompson: I love this story, I love any story involving cool 265 00:13:27,179 --> 00:13:29,489 Michael Thompson: modes of transport. And I would say a ship of 266 00:13:29,490 --> 00:13:32,670 Michael Thompson: this nature falls into that category. Because the biggest battery 267 00:13:32,670 --> 00:13:35,370 Michael Thompson: powered ship in the world is going to be built 268 00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:37,860 Michael Thompson: in Australia. It's a major step for the world's shipping 269 00:13:37,860 --> 00:13:40,740 Michael Thompson: industry and a really good one for Australia. 270 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,458 Jennifer Duke: Yeah, Tasmanian ship builder, actually you don't often hear that 271 00:13:44,460 --> 00:13:47,250 Jennifer Duke: much happening in Tasmania, but Tasmanian ship builder, Incat, is 272 00:13:47,250 --> 00:13:50,820 Jennifer Duke: building the 130- meter ferry with 40 megawatt hours of 273 00:13:50,820 --> 00:13:54,449 Jennifer Duke: battery storage according to The Australian. Incat is planning to 274 00:13:54,450 --> 00:13:57,300 Jennifer Duke: double its workforce, which is currently at about 400 people, 275 00:13:57,300 --> 00:14:00,300 Jennifer Duke: to meet demand for electric ships. One of the reasons 276 00:14:00,300 --> 00:14:03,059 Jennifer Duke: they're at the forefront of this particular technology is because 277 00:14:03,059 --> 00:14:05,728 Jennifer Duke: they use aluminum hulls which are much lighter than steel, 278 00:14:05,730 --> 00:14:08,430 Jennifer Duke: so they obviously don't need as much propulsion. And about 3% 279 00:14:08,910 --> 00:14:11,850 Jennifer Duke: of global greenhouse gas emissions are from ocean- going shipping. 280 00:14:11,940 --> 00:14:15,030 Jennifer Duke: The European Commission reckons growing trade could push this up 281 00:14:15,030 --> 00:14:17,849 Jennifer Duke: to as much as 10% if clean technology isn't developed 282 00:14:17,849 --> 00:14:18,569 Jennifer Duke: quickly enough. 283 00:14:19,259 --> 00:14:22,559 Michael Thompson: It's just another example of an Australian company seeing this 284 00:14:22,559 --> 00:14:26,730 Michael Thompson: opportunity as we transition and making the most of it. 285 00:14:27,150 --> 00:14:28,440 Jennifer Duke: It's pretty impressive actually. 286 00:14:29,070 --> 00:14:31,920 Michael Thompson: Yeah, yeah, it really is, it's a great story. Turning to international 287 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:36,120 Michael Thompson: news now. And FTX founder, Sam Bankman- Fried, has been 288 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,389 Michael Thompson: sent to prison after having his bail revoked. 289 00:14:39,990 --> 00:14:42,299 Jennifer Duke: So, Bankman- Fried has been under house arrest since he 290 00:14:42,299 --> 00:14:45,090 Jennifer Duke: was extradited from The Bahamas in December on charges of 291 00:14:45,090 --> 00:14:49,170 Jennifer Duke: defrauding investors. And prosecutors said the cryptocurrency exchange boss has 292 00:14:49,170 --> 00:14:51,840 Jennifer Duke: since tried to tamper with key witnesses by sharing the 293 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,240 Jennifer Duke: private notes from his former girlfriend, who's a witness in 294 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,659 Jennifer Duke: the case, with a journalist, and using encrypted communication to 295 00:14:57,660 --> 00:15:00,720 Jennifer Duke: contact the general counsel for FTX. He's now been sent 296 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:01,890 Jennifer Duke: to jail to await trial. 297 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,580 Michael Thompson: We talked last week, Jen, about the wildfires in Hawaii. 298 00:15:05,580 --> 00:15:08,790 Michael Thompson: Now they've killed about 90 people, the death toll has 299 00:15:08,790 --> 00:15:12,840 Michael Thompson: been revised upwards, and left thousands homeless in major destruction 300 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,599 Michael Thompson: on the island of Maui. The cost to rebuild has 301 00:15:15,599 --> 00:15:18,660 Michael Thompson: been estimated at about five and a half billion dollars 302 00:15:18,690 --> 00:15:23,610 Michael Thompson: US by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. With about 2200 303 00:15:23,610 --> 00:15:27,360 Michael Thompson: structures either damaged or destroyed, about 1500 of these were 304 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:31,980 Michael Thompson: residential homes, and around 2, 100 acres were burned. 305 00:15:32,849 --> 00:15:35,699 Jennifer Duke: Australia's Trade Minister, Don Farrell, said this served as a 306 00:15:35,699 --> 00:15:38,010 Jennifer Duke: warning to Aussies about what could be coming this summer. 307 00:15:38,310 --> 00:15:40,500 Jennifer Duke: And he encouraged people to prepare for the worst and 308 00:15:40,500 --> 00:15:45,389 Jennifer Duke: take precautionary measures. The 2019/ 2020 bushfire season in Australia burnt 309 00:15:45,389 --> 00:15:49,380 Jennifer Duke: 24 million hectares and destroyed about 3000 buildings, mainly homes. 310 00:15:49,770 --> 00:15:52,049 Jennifer Duke: The Bureau of Meteorology has said an El Nino weather 311 00:15:52,049 --> 00:15:53,549 Jennifer Duke: pattern is likely this year. 312 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,690 Michael Thompson: Okay, one last story, Jen. New Zealand's biggest businesses will 313 00:15:57,690 --> 00:16:00,750 Michael Thompson: be forced to reveal their gender pay gap in a 314 00:16:00,750 --> 00:16:02,460 Michael Thompson: real push to address equality. 315 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,759 Jennifer Duke: This is new legislation from the New Zealand government, and 316 00:16:05,759 --> 00:16:08,729 Jennifer Duke: it's kicking off with businesses who employ 250 or more 317 00:16:08,730 --> 00:16:12,090 Jennifer Duke: people, which is about 900 companies that will be required to report 318 00:16:12,090 --> 00:16:14,760 Jennifer Duke: this data. It's then planned to be expanded to all 319 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:16,980 Jennifer Duke: businesses with a hundred or more staff, which is about 2, 320 00:16:17,010 --> 00:16:19,830 Jennifer Duke: 700 firms. This will actually bring them in line with 321 00:16:19,830 --> 00:16:23,130 Jennifer Duke: Australia, Canada, and the UK. And at the moment, about 322 00:16:23,130 --> 00:16:26,759 Jennifer Duke: 200 private companies over the ditch voluntarily report this information 323 00:16:26,759 --> 00:16:27,810 Jennifer Duke: or have plans to do so. 324 00:16:28,529 --> 00:16:31,080 Michael Thompson: Is there a political element to this at all, Jen, 325 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,210 Michael Thompson: there's an election there this year, isn't there? 326 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:35,850 Jennifer Duke: Yes, there is. The Kiwis are heading to the polls 327 00:16:35,850 --> 00:16:38,490 Jennifer Duke: in October, so this will require their Labour government to 328 00:16:38,490 --> 00:16:41,370 Jennifer Duke: be reelected or to get bipartisan support on the issue. 329 00:16:41,790 --> 00:16:44,339 Jennifer Duke: And current New Zealand Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, has also 330 00:16:44,340 --> 00:16:46,740 Jennifer Duke: promised to exempt fruit and veg from GST if Labour 331 00:16:46,740 --> 00:16:47,251 Jennifer Duke: wins a third term. 332 00:16:47,251 --> 00:16:50,250 Michael Thompson: All right, we've covered a lot of ground today, Jen. Up next 333 00:16:50,250 --> 00:16:52,979 Michael Thompson: is the Fear & Greed daily interview, you are speaking with 334 00:16:52,980 --> 00:16:55,260 Michael Thompson: Matthew Kidman from Centennial Asset Management. 335 00:16:55,590 --> 00:16:58,320 Jennifer Duke: That's right. It's a really good chat for anyone who's got a 336 00:16:58,320 --> 00:16:59,640 Jennifer Duke: keen eye on reporting season. 337 00:16:59,790 --> 00:17:01,830 Michael Thompson: Yeah, absolutely. I love the fact that he does name 338 00:17:01,830 --> 00:17:04,229 Michael Thompson: those companies and just gets right into it. It is always 339 00:17:04,230 --> 00:17:05,879 Michael Thompson: a good listen. It's coming up next in the Fear & 340 00:17:05,879 --> 00:17:08,850 Michael Thompson: Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at fearandgreed.com.au. A 341 00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:12,540 Michael Thompson: couple of other things to put on your to- listen 342 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,849 Michael Thompson: list, if you have one of those, Fear & Greed - The 343 00:17:14,849 --> 00:17:18,869 Michael Thompson: Week Ahead with our resident economist, Stephen Koukoulas, where he 344 00:17:18,869 --> 00:17:22,379 Michael Thompson: chats about wages data and labor force data as well. 345 00:17:22,379 --> 00:17:24,869 Michael Thompson: And we've also got the RBA minutes, the minutes of 346 00:17:24,869 --> 00:17:27,270 Michael Thompson: the August board meeting coming out as well. And Stephen 347 00:17:27,270 --> 00:17:29,790 Michael Thompson: gets into all of that. And if you have a 348 00:17:29,790 --> 00:17:31,168 Michael Thompson: little bit of time, if you have a spare half 349 00:17:31,170 --> 00:17:32,730 Michael Thompson: hour up your sleeve, go back and have a listen 350 00:17:32,730 --> 00:17:35,279 Michael Thompson: to the Weekend Edition as well of Fear & Greed, it 351 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:39,000 Michael Thompson: came out on Saturday. And Jen, it's very much a 352 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,540 Michael Thompson: competitive environment as we go in search of the biggest 353 00:17:42,540 --> 00:17:43,021 Michael Thompson: story of the week. 354 00:17:43,021 --> 00:17:43,261 Jennifer Duke: It's like the Matildas. 355 00:17:44,490 --> 00:17:47,790 Michael Thompson: Yeah, absolutely. I think we were inspired by the Matildas. And it 356 00:17:47,790 --> 00:17:50,460 Michael Thompson: got very, very competitive on the weekend. 357 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:52,590 Jennifer Duke: Got to watch our penalty shootout basically. 358 00:17:53,550 --> 00:17:55,559 Michael Thompson: Absolutely. It really did come down to that, didn't it? 359 00:17:55,559 --> 00:17:57,359 Michael Thompson: I'm not going to spoil the end, I'm not going 360 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,279 Michael Thompson: to give it away. But it is worth a listen 361 00:17:59,279 --> 00:18:01,590 Michael Thompson: and it's a great recap of everything that happened last 362 00:18:01,590 --> 00:18:03,359 Michael Thompson: week and it's a bit of fun as well. And 363 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,609 Michael Thompson: you'll find that one in the playlist as well. Thank 364 00:18:05,609 --> 00:18:06,388 Michael Thompson: you very much, Jen. 365 00:18:06,690 --> 00:18:07,650 Jennifer Duke: Thanks so much, Michael. 366 00:18:07,770 --> 00:18:11,129 Michael Thompson: It's Monday the 14th of August, 2023. Make sure you're 367 00:18:11,130 --> 00:18:15,418 Michael Thompson: following the podcast. And join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, X 368 00:18:15,420 --> 00:18:18,510 Michael Thompson: and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear & Greed 369 00:18:18,510 --> 00:18:20,160 Michael Thompson: Business News. Have a great day.