1 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to Ask Fear and Greed, where we answer questions 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: about business, investing, economics, politics and more. I'm Michael Thompson 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: and hello Sean Aylmer Hllio Michael now Seawan. Today, virgin 4 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: Australia is listing on the asx SO. Today's question is 5 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: all about IPOs and when you take your look back 6 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: at some of the recent IPOs, what have they done 7 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 1: once listed? 8 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 2: Very good question. I suppose the first point to make 9 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 2: is that we actually haven't had that many listings. In fact, 10 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 2: most of our listings have been tiny, raising very small amounts. 11 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: I suppose Guzmany Gomez was the last big one. 12 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 1: Certainly the most exciting one, wasn't it. Yeah got the 13 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 1: most attention. 14 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. Two point two billion dollars at the time it actually, 15 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 2: I mean so it listed in the middle of last year, 16 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 2: about two months ago or thereabouts. What was interesting with 17 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 2: that one is it just took off. So it listed 18 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 2: about thirty bucks, it got to about it was to 19 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 2: forty four dollars at one point kind of late last year. 20 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 2: So when it came to the market, many people said, no, 21 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 2: we're comparing this to Domino's. Dominos isn't doing very well, 22 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 2: so Goozman won't do so well. Came on at thirty bucks, 23 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 2: got to almost forty five forty six or forty four 24 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 2: forty five bucks, people thought, wow, that's great. Do you 25 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 2: know where it is now by twenty eight dollars seventy two? 26 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: Oh really? 27 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:28,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's actually back below the listing price, so it's 28 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 2: lower than where it started. Notwithstanding it went for that 29 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 2: huge run in the or sort of the second half 30 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: of last year, the first six months of its life. 31 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: So and what I know, there was a lot of excitement, 32 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: general excitement around it, and there was a lot of 33 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: talk from the company itself about they had a massive 34 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: plan ahead for expansion, rolling out a lot more restaurants 35 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: and things. Just got a bit of momentum up behind 36 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: it that just keeps pushing it after listing. 37 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, reality bites at some point. And so 38 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 2: Goodman had plenty of big plans, particularly in the US, 39 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 2: want to drill out into the US. Now they've just 40 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 2: been sort of tempered some of those plans a bit. 41 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 2: The economy isn't going as well, and so you just 42 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 2: at the end of the day and investor looks at 43 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 2: what earnings are going to be like in the future, 44 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 2: and whilst it might all be exciting when it leasts, 45 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 2: if they're not going to meet some of those earnings hopes, 46 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: then the share price settles down. And that's exactly what's 47 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:29,079 Speaker 2: happened there. It's not the only stock to have listed 48 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: so late last year. There was something called Southern Cross 49 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 2: Gold that listed three can I three? Yeah? 50 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: Can I guess what they do? 51 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 2: You can even guess what the share price is. So 52 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: it listed at three dollars it's now seven buck sixty eight. 53 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 2: Oh really, yeah, so it's pretty good. I mean up 54 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 2: on Golden Horse Mineral's great name. No price is guessing 55 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 2: with that one is that's up sixty six percent as 56 00:02:54,919 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 2: well Coscoal, which was the payments group that listed, So 57 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 2: that was two fifties now about two ninety or thereabouts. 58 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 2: So generally they've gone up with the market. The big 59 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 2: exception so there's a crowd called dig you Co Infrastructure 60 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 2: Reach Real State Investment Trust that had a lot of 61 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: sort of data center style properties in it. It listed 62 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 2: at five bucks, it's now three dollars sixty so that 63 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 2: had a lot of data centers in it. Now we 64 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 2: talk a lot about data centers. We get very excited 65 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 2: about them. But in actual fact, the value of data 66 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 2: centers has dropped quite substantially since late last year, in 67 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 2: part because did you Co Infrastructure hit the market and 68 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 2: really highly priced and then it's come right off. Goodman 69 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 2: Group did the same thing. They came off quite a bit, 70 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: and it's on the back of the fact that there's 71 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 2: just a little bit of trepidation about data centers at 72 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 2: the moment. We had deep coming out of China, So 73 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 2: do we need these big data centers that we thought 74 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 2: we might need. That was a big one. Also, I 75 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 2: think the market felt that the data center owners just 76 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 2: took them for a bit of a ride late last year, 77 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: including the floating of Digito infrastructure, so they've really been 78 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 2: on the nose. So in that instance, that stocks down 79 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 2: twenty five to thirty percent since listing. Look at Goozmany 80 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 2: Gomez over the last two months, it's basically flat. The 81 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 2: gold miners have done really well. So the upshot to 82 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 2: this is it very much depends on where they're listing 83 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 2: and the sector they're in. 84 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, and of course we've talked before about Virgin Australia 85 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 1: trying to kind of figure out the right timing. Yeah, 86 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: two lists, and when there was a lot of talk 87 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: about it a couple of weeks ago, when oil prices 88 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: were down and it was really looking like it was 89 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: going to be a great time for Virgin. Then all 90 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 1: of a sudden we had everything that happened in the 91 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 1: Middle East and Quantas kind of bringing back a lot 92 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: of capacity back in to the market here by closing 93 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: down Jetstar Asia, and suddenly it wasn't quite as good 94 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: as it was looking. So, I mean, it would been 95 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: a very difficult thing to try and work the timing. 96 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: In the end, you just have to go with it 97 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: and just ride the market and see where it takes you. 98 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 2: That's exactly right. I mean, Virgin twelve hours ago is 99 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,799 Speaker 2: looking worse than it is right now. In this Donald 100 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 2: Trump world where we've just had a ceasefire and a 101 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 2: parent ceasefire between Iran and Israel, that should help vergiin 102 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: Australia enormously when it lists. I mean as we're speaking, 103 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 2: it was listing about at twelve o'clock today, so about 104 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 2: thirty minutes away from when we're speaking. That should do 105 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 2: much better than it would have if it listed yesterday, 106 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 2: purely on the back of what's happened in the last 107 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 2: twenty four hours. Pretty crazy world at the moment. 108 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, extraordinary. All right, that was a pretty comprehensive look 109 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: overall at the IPO space. I think we've I think 110 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: we've done well, Sean. 111 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 2: We've done our job. I think so we haven't the right. 112 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: If you've got your own question, then please send it 113 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: on through via the website fearangreed dot com today you 114 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: or any of the social media platforms sent it through 115 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: and we'll pop it on the list. Thanks very much, Sean. 116 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 2: Thanks Michael. 117 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and this is us Fear and Greed.