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Speaker 1: As you know, Peter Dunton, it's unvowed a plant for

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Speaker 1: a nuclear future in Australia. And there's a suggestion that

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Speaker 1: if the coalition comes to office and they slow down

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Speaker 1: in the lead up to nuclear the building of renewable

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Speaker 1: energy generators in terms of solar power or wind farms,

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Speaker 1: solar farms, what that may do in that gap period

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Speaker 1: between slowing down renewables and the building of nuclear power

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Speaker 1: plants is adding to the expense of creating electricity through

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Speaker 1: gas turbines and however else. That's really the only way

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Speaker 1: by then, probably if the plans to close coal powered

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Speaker 1: fire stations continue the way they are, and economists are

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Speaker 1: suggesting that prices could rise on your annual energy bill

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Speaker 1: in that interim period, however long that is. It might

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Speaker 1: be a couple of years or more of up to

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Speaker 1: five hundred two one thousand dollars. Energy Associate Professor Roger

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Speaker 1: Dargerville is interim Director Monash Energy Institute at Monash UNI.

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Speaker 1: Associate Professor, good.

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Speaker 2: Mining, Good morning reffee.

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Speaker 1: That's an alarming amount, up to one thousand dollars as

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Speaker 1: if bills aren't high enough a grander year more.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So if we're going to use a lot more gas.

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Speaker 2: As you said correctly, gas is expensive. It's going to

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Speaker 2: push up power prices. We've just had the message from

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Speaker 2: the market operator AMO telling us that we've got a

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Speaker 2: gas shortage at the moment because of constraints in the

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Speaker 2: supply network and high demand with curve cold weather we're

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Speaker 2: getting at the moment. Gas is a very expensive way

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Speaker 2: of making electricity. You typically reserve it for peak periods

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Speaker 2: when when you really need a bit of extra juice

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Speaker 2: in the system. You don't use it for filling in

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Speaker 2: large amounts of energy the way that coulified power stations

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Speaker 2: do at the moment.

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Speaker 1: And we don't have all the detail yet in terms

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Speaker 1: of costing, timelines or anything else. Do we apart from

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Speaker 1: by twenty thirty five one will be operating somewhere.

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Speaker 2: We have very little details and I think twenty thirty

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Speaker 2: five would be incredibly optimistic. Even if the Coalition were

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Speaker 2: to get into government at the next election, they've got

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Speaker 2: to get an Act of Parliament to change the laws

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Speaker 2: to even start doing the planning. These are The planning

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Speaker 2: for these things takes years and years and then construction

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Speaker 2: will be at least five or six years as well,

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Speaker 2: so everything would have to go perfectly well to be

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Speaker 2: able to have a plan operating by twenty thirty five.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so it's mainly gas is what we'd be relying

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Speaker 1: on in the interim, and the federal government has said, well,

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Speaker 1: we're going to need it for decades to come anyway,

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Speaker 1: as I suppose a backup are reserves. So why wouldn't

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Speaker 1: it work with renewables. Why wouldn't the continual growth of

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Speaker 1: renewables in that situation, if we're talking renewables as opposed

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Speaker 1: to nuclear, not have the same effect of pushing up

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Speaker 1: prices by one thousand dollars.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's the amount of gas you need, and South

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Speaker 2: Australia is an absolutely classic example of how this works.

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Speaker 2: So in South Australia, gas use has been dropping a

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Speaker 2: lot year on years with the increase in the mount

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Speaker 2: of renewables in the grid because you need less and

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Speaker 2: less capacity. The gas is still really really important and

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Speaker 2: useful for filling in the times when there isn't enough

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Speaker 2: wind and solar to meet demand, so you still need

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Speaker 2: that capacity, but the actual amount of gas that you

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Speaker 2: burn in the end is dropping, and we would be

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Speaker 2: reversing that trend if we stop building renewables, especially in

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Speaker 2: the other states that are on lagging behind South Australia

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Speaker 2: in this transition to high penetration renewables, they'll end up

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Speaker 2: burning more gas. And as the price of gas continues

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Speaker 2: to stay high and probably increase, that will result in

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Speaker 2: higher energy prices.

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Speaker 1: And the only way to bring it down, presumably is

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Speaker 1: to go out exploring and find some more gas reserves

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Speaker 1: somewhere and tap into them, not just find them, but

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Speaker 1: tap into them and put them on stream.

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Speaker 2: Well, well, that's certainly one way of reducing gas prices,

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Speaker 2: but gas is a limited resource. But the way that

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Speaker 2: all limited resources work is you access the cheapest ones first,

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Speaker 2: and then every consecutive reserve after that is more and

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Speaker 2: more expensive, so that there isn't very much cheap gas

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Speaker 2: left in Australia or in the world for that matter,

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Speaker 2: So gas is likely to be expensively. The better answer

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Speaker 2: is to continue installing renewables, which are demonstrably cheaper than

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Speaker 2: burning gas.

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Speaker 1: To make electricity certainly cheaper, but the reliability is the issue,

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Speaker 1: isn't it with them? And okay, if you've got farms everywhere,

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Speaker 1: I suppose, so if it's cloudy somewhere it's sunny somewhere else,

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Speaker 1: and that slack is picked up down the road seven

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Speaker 1: hundred k's or whatever it might be. That's part of

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Speaker 1: the answer, is that what you're pointing to.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I mean the answer is a portfolio of technologies.

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Speaker 2: No one technology is perfect. Everything has drawbacks, and that

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Speaker 2: the benefit of gas is that it's very flexible and

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Speaker 2: can produce power a very short notice and filling those

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Speaker 2: gaps when renewables can't. But gas is very expensive to use,

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Speaker 2: so you want to minimize how much you use. And

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Speaker 2: it's a really nice marriage between renewables and gas for

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Speaker 2: having a better system and even better options to be

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Speaker 2: using energy storage, such as with your own batteries or

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Speaker 2: better still, pumped hydro such as the perhaps not great

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Speaker 2: example snowy two point zero has been a rather expensive

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Speaker 2: way of doing pumped hydro, but it can be done

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Speaker 2: much more cost effectively. And when you've got pumped hydro,

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Speaker 2: you're actually storing the excess wind and solar when it's

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Speaker 2: producing more than what you need at any one point

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Speaker 2: in time, and saving up for later on when the

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Speaker 2: wind isn't blowing on the funds and training.

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Speaker 1: How much gas do we use now in electricity supply?

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Speaker 1: In other words, how much of our electricity comes with gas?

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Speaker 2: Across the Eastern States. It's putting on the spot a

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Speaker 2: little bit. It's about four or five percent, so low,

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Speaker 2: not a lot, very much.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, all right, So we're what the rest is

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Speaker 1: coal based over there in the Eastern States and here

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Speaker 1: more renewables.

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Speaker 2: So the mixed is about close to renewables, breind and solar.

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Speaker 2: It's about sixty coal, five percent gas and five percent

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Speaker 2: hydro thereabout. I hope those numbers.

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Speaker 1: Now, no, they don't, but we get the gist. We

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Speaker 1: get the GISTs. No, we're not forty sixty and two fives. No,

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Speaker 1: that's one hundred. Yeah, you'll take one down to thirty

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Speaker 1: five and the other down to fifty five and we're there.

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Speaker 1: So okay, that that is understandable then okay. So gas

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Speaker 1: isn't used alighted is used as the backup, and when

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Speaker 1: we do turn it on, it's it's quite expensive. We'll

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Speaker 1: need to turn it on more, is what the argument says.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and in South Australia, because you don't have coal

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Speaker 2: five generators there anymore. Since play for the Northern shutdown

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Speaker 2: you do have more gas than the average for the

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Speaker 2: other states, so that that's one of the reasons why

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Speaker 2: why power prices in South Australia can go quite high.

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Speaker 2: But on the flip side, because you've got more wind

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Speaker 2: and soler than any other state, that tends to even

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Speaker 2: out and keep your prices about the same.

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Speaker 1: And this isn't a doomsday you know, left wing scenario,

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Speaker 1: is that this is a fact reality that if we

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Speaker 1: were to ease up on renewables, the result would be

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Speaker 1: the need for more gas and therefore the bill goes up.

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Speaker 1: It's not it's not a scare tactic against nuclear, that's

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Speaker 1: what I'm saying.

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Speaker 2: Oh no, So you could argue that the reason why

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Speaker 2: the coalition is arguing for nuclear is they actually don't

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Speaker 2: believe that it will get built, but it's a way

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Speaker 2: of slowing down the transition to renewables and therefore gives

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Speaker 2: the coal and gas generators a bit more time in

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Speaker 2: the game before they inevitably might not be to the

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Speaker 2: mid mid century until they get phased out.

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Speaker 1: Completely interesting, all right, Roger, really appreciate your insights.

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Speaker 2: Thank you my pleasure, Maakic

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Speaker 1: Associate Professor Roger Dargaville who is in ARE and Director

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Speaker 1: at Monash Energy Institute at Monash UNI