WEBVTT - Albo v Dutton: Let the mind games begin

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Christinamio.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Monday, March thirty one, twenty twenty five. Students from

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<v Speaker 1>Papua New Guinea are being strongly encouraged to study climate change,

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<v Speaker 1>gender studies and disability policy if they want to receive

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<v Speaker 1>a scholarship funded by Australian taxpayers. That's in contrast to

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<v Speaker 1>previous rounds when the focus was on agriculture, medicine and education.

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<v Speaker 1>That exclusive story is live right now at the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>dot com dot au. The election campaign is officially on

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<v Speaker 1>and new data from Newspoll has Labor in pole position.

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<v Speaker 1>That's despite a huge fail grade from voters on last

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<v Speaker 1>week's budget. They've ranked it as the worst budget for

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<v Speaker 1>the economy in a decade. Today, our chief political correspondent

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Chambers unpacks who's pitching, what and where?

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<v Speaker 2>Ready to go?

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<v Speaker 3>You bet born ready?

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<v Speaker 1>After months of voe campaigning and at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>an intense budget week, it's now on.

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<v Speaker 2>The date is set and Australia will go to the

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<v Speaker 2>polls on the third of May.

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<v Speaker 3>It'll mark the beginning of a five week campaign centered

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<v Speaker 3>around the cost of living the Prime.

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<v Speaker 2>Minister around in the Albaneze. He's looking to become the

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<v Speaker 2>first prime minister since John Howard in two thousand and

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<v Speaker 2>four to be re elected.

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<v Speaker 3>Now you choose the way forward. Your vote has never

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<v Speaker 3>been more important and your choice has never been more clear.

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<v Speaker 1>On Saturday morning, Anthony Albanezi popped up in northwest Brisbane,

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<v Speaker 1>in the heart of Peter Dutton's electorate of Dixon, where

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<v Speaker 1>he was heckled in the middle of his very first

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<v Speaker 1>official campaign. Pres con friends, well about the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>people my age can't get any housing, we can't get

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<v Speaker 1>rentals anymore. We have no future in this country anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>Everythink that's kind of ridiculous. Just down the road in Milton,

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<v Speaker 1>at Brisbane's famed for Ex brewery, Peter Dutton targeted Labour's

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<v Speaker 1>performance on energy and was targeted himself by anti nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>energy protesters. Mister, why you like the people? That's cost

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<v Speaker 1>of nuclear and gas.

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<v Speaker 3>It's going to cook the country.

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<v Speaker 1>So, Jeff, what do you make of Anthony Albanese's decision

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<v Speaker 1>to kick off his election campaign in enemy territory.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so the Prime Minister is feeling very confident.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Chambers is the Australian's chief political correspondent.

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<v Speaker 5>You'll recall before tropical cyclone our for it emerged that

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<v Speaker 5>in the polls Labor and the Prime Minister were going

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<v Speaker 5>not great and he made that big decision to hold

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<v Speaker 5>off plans that have been put in place for an

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<v Speaker 5>April twelve election and decided to press on for a

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<v Speaker 5>March twenty five budget. And in that time we've seen

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<v Speaker 5>Peter Dutton lose a fair bit of momentum that he

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<v Speaker 5>had post the Voice all the way up to probably

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<v Speaker 5>February and March this year, and we saw it last

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<v Speaker 5>week just ahead of his budget reply he announced a

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<v Speaker 5>halving of the fuel excise and that has been observed

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<v Speaker 5>as a very populous move. That was an attempt to

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<v Speaker 5>try and regather some of that momentum and he is

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<v Speaker 5>now trying to play catch up. Because that is the

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<v Speaker 5>power of incumbency for a government. They can decide the

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<v Speaker 5>election timing and Anthony Albanezi has used that to his advantage.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Peter Dutton wasn't exactly home free either. He made

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<v Speaker 1>his start in the Greens held seat of Milton, which

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<v Speaker 1>is one of the three Queensland seats the Greens won

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty two, So what's the calculus there for him?

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<v Speaker 4>That's Southeast Queensland corner.

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<v Speaker 5>There's a few seats that are up for grabs and

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<v Speaker 5>for lab they really want to put the pressure on

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<v Speaker 5>Peter Dutton in his own seat of Dixon, which for

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<v Speaker 5>a long time has been a marginal seat, but at

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<v Speaker 5>that twenty twenty two election it became one of the

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<v Speaker 5>most marginal seats in Queensland. You've got the climate two

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<v Speaker 5>hundred tiers running there, You've got a Labor candidate running

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<v Speaker 5>for i think the third time, and then you've got

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<v Speaker 5>all the unions. Will just pump a lot of resources

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<v Speaker 5>and money into the seat of Dixon. And the reason

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<v Speaker 5>that they do that is to distract a leader. The

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<v Speaker 5>leader has to spend some time at home and has

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<v Speaker 5>to do some sandbagging of his seat. So I don't

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<v Speaker 5>think that Labour think that they can win it, but

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<v Speaker 5>they just want to really distract Peter Dutton from the

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<v Speaker 5>broader competition.

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<v Speaker 1>On Sunday, the campaign bus is headed south Albo to

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<v Speaker 1>the Canberra suburb of Downer by way of Beager and

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<v Speaker 1>Peter Dutton to the Western Sydney seat of Fowler. It's

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<v Speaker 1>there that the battle lines are being drawn. Fowler was

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<v Speaker 1>a safe Labor seat until twenty twenty two when Independent

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<v Speaker 1>daily former Liberal flipped it in a race against Christina Kinnely,

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<v Speaker 1>who'd been parachuted in by Labor. These days, it's held

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<v Speaker 1>on the slimmest of margins. There's just two percent in it.

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<v Speaker 1>What are the key battlegrounds in your view?

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<v Speaker 5>I think that Victoria is really important for Peter Dutton.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a seat that Labor thought that Peter Dutton would

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<v Speaker 5>never have a chance in. But the state of play

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<v Speaker 5>there for Victorian Labor, as we've seen in some of

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<v Speaker 5>the recent state by elections, show that there is a

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<v Speaker 5>mood against the Labor brand down there. But in saying that,

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<v Speaker 5>the best case scenario would be for Peter Dutton to

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<v Speaker 5>pick up seats like Aston, which they lost in that

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<v Speaker 5>by election in twenty twenty three, seats like McEwen and

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<v Speaker 5>seats like Chisol which has a high Chinese Australian population.

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<v Speaker 5>So there's a handful of seats that they want to win.

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<v Speaker 5>And they also have some really super marginal seats down

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<v Speaker 5>there and Deacon and Menzie, so they have to hold

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<v Speaker 5>their seats and win. But this election will be one

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<v Speaker 5>all lost in the big state of New South Wales.

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<v Speaker 5>The issues vary depending on where you are. I think

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<v Speaker 5>that Labor now resigned to the fact that they'll lose

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<v Speaker 5>that New South Wales South Coast seat of Gilmour, which

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<v Speaker 5>is super marginal. And then there's other battlegrounds like the

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<v Speaker 5>New South Wales Hunter region, particularly the seed of Patterson

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<v Speaker 5>which is based around Port Stephens and in the redistribution

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<v Speaker 5>lost Curry to Hunter next door and that's the site

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<v Speaker 5>of where Chris Bowen was looking to put the Hunter

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<v Speaker 5>offshore wind zone, which is really if you're aated some

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<v Speaker 5>locals there.

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<v Speaker 4>So there'll be some pressure.

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<v Speaker 5>For the labor there in the Hunter and also on

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<v Speaker 5>the Central Coast in the seats of Robertson and Doebell,

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<v Speaker 5>but it's not going to be easy for Peter Dutton

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<v Speaker 5>and they're the seats he has to win. Then you

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<v Speaker 5>go into Sydney, and in Western Sydney it's a huge

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<v Speaker 5>battleground seats like Benelong. Redistributions have made that notionally a

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<v Speaker 5>liberal seed. That's the former seat of John Howard and

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<v Speaker 5>it looks like the Liberals will win there, but they're

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<v Speaker 5>also facing challenges with the Teals.

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<v Speaker 4>And then you look at labor.

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<v Speaker 5>Seats in Western Sydney, particularly those with high Muslim Australian populations.

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<v Speaker 5>So Tony Burke's seed of Watson, Jason Clare seed of

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<v Speaker 5>Blaxland Labor hold those traditionally by a massive margin, but

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<v Speaker 5>there has been this Muslim vote movement, so you'd expect

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<v Speaker 5>some of those senior ministers having to really work very

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<v Speaker 5>hard to make sure that whatever swing is coming against them,

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<v Speaker 5>that they can retain their seeds.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up Labor and the Liberals make their pitch to voters,

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<v Speaker 1>So what's the selection actually about?

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<v Speaker 3>Healthcare is so important and what this election is about

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<v Speaker 3>is strengthening the economy, strengthening Medicare versus Peter Dutton's plan

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<v Speaker 3>for cuts to everything except your taxes. They realize that

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<v Speaker 3>at this election the contest really is about whoop and

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<v Speaker 3>lower petroprisis. By the end of this year, we will

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<v Speaker 3>introduce legislation to make supermarket price gadging illegal in Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>He is it's weitness word and the supermarkets in Australia snow.

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<v Speaker 5>We're not seeing any sort of really deep and meaningful,

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<v Speaker 5>comprehensive bold, courageous, whatever you want to call it. Economic reforms.

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<v Speaker 5>We're looking at fairly big spending populist type of policies

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<v Speaker 5>like cheaper medicines, urgent care, clinics, mental health funding important areas.

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<v Speaker 5>But ultimately both sides know that the top tier issue

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<v Speaker 5>who remained are still cost of living and housing, and

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<v Speaker 5>then you have health, national security, defense or sitting under that.

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<v Speaker 5>So the onus is on Peter Dutton and this will

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<v Speaker 5>happen soon, I believe, to start rolling out some substantive

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<v Speaker 5>policies in areas that he wants to have a fight on.

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<v Speaker 4>Because without that.

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<v Speaker 5>And once that sort of real blow torch of the

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<v Speaker 5>campaign trial really amplifies, you don't want to be sitting

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<v Speaker 5>there talking about things that happened months ago or responding

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<v Speaker 5>to what the other party is doing. You have to

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<v Speaker 5>start setting out your own agenda and start to try

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<v Speaker 5>and reclaim the narrative.

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<v Speaker 1>In last week's federal budget, the government pulled off a

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<v Speaker 1>genuine surprise, announcing a teeny tiny tax cut of two

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<v Speaker 1>percent for all Australians. The Coalition says it won't support

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<v Speaker 1>the cuts if it wins on May three, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>small businesses who say they need all the help they

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<v Speaker 1>can get.

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<v Speaker 5>There's about two point six million small businesses across Australia

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<v Speaker 5>and when you look at insolvency statistics since the twenty

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<v Speaker 5>twenty two election, there's been i think up to now

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<v Speaker 5>around twenty nine thousand companies that have plunged into insolvency,

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<v Speaker 5>and the vast majority of those are small businesses and

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<v Speaker 5>through COVID and then beyond, it's been really tough with

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<v Speaker 5>the cost of living crisis and it's becoming really hard

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<v Speaker 5>for these mum and dab operators to keep their doors open.

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<v Speaker 4>And one of the pushes that they're going to really.

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<v Speaker 5>Amplify in this election campaign is around a reduction in

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<v Speaker 5>the corporate tax rate for small businesses, which the focus

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<v Speaker 5>is generally on personal income tax cuts, but given their

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<v Speaker 5>importance often described as the engine room of Australia, they

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<v Speaker 5>believe that measure, along with other measures that they're calling for,

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<v Speaker 5>would provide some help and relief to try and keep

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<v Speaker 5>the doors open for small businesses that really do prop

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<v Speaker 5>up commune.

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<v Speaker 4>It is in the suburbs and the regions across the country.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Chambers is the Australian's Chief Political correspondent. You can

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<v Speaker 1>keep up with all the laters from the campaign trail

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<v Speaker 1>at the Australian dot com dot au