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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Interest rate set to fall

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Speaker 1: after the country's underlying inflation rate fell to its lowest

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Speaker 1: level in three and a half years. Home prices across

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Speaker 1: the country rise for the third month in a row,

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Speaker 1: and Cole's is winning the war against Woolworths. Plus, both

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Speaker 1: sides of politics get aggressive against the other, and Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump gets aggressive against well pretty much everyone in a

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Speaker 1: speech to mark one hundred days in office. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed daily business news for people who make

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Speaker 1: their own decisions. It is Thursday, the first of May

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Big day today, Big Newsletter today as well show Big

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Speaker 1: Newsletter Today. If you haven't signed up for the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed newsletter, headlong to Fearangreed dot com dot au

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Speaker 1: pop your email addressing entirely free and the best part

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Speaker 1: is that you can read it in about two minutes

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Speaker 1: flat and you will arrive at your desk ready for

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Speaker 1: the day. It just gives you the few dot points

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Speaker 1: that you need in order to really to bluff your

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Speaker 1: way through any conversation. Right, That's what I use it

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Speaker 1: for Yeah. Anyway, I'll put a link in today's show

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Speaker 1: notes as well so you can find it, but the

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Speaker 1: website is the place to go Fear and Green dot com.

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Speaker 1: Today you shown on with the show. The main story

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Speaker 1: this morning, a rate cut is expected in three weeks

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Speaker 1: after March quarter inflation figures show that annual price rises

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Speaker 1: are now back below three percent, But it's economists have

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Speaker 1: worn that there might only be two more rate cuts

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Speaker 1: this year, not four as many had actually hoped. The

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Speaker 1: Reserve banks that preferred measure of inflation is now below

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Speaker 1: three percent for the first time in more than three years.

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Speaker 1: That's the good news. The bad news is that inflation

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Speaker 1: over the March quarter was just a touch higher than forecast,

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Speaker 1: but probably not enough to prevent a rate cut. On

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Speaker 1: twenty May, headline inflation over the three months was zero

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Speaker 1: point nine percent. Now you put all that together, annual

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Speaker 1: inflation two point four percent, underlying inflation two point nine percent.

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Speaker 1: If you take the last six month figures for underlying inflation,

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Speaker 1: it's about two and a half percent. That is exactly

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Speaker 1: the number that the Reserve Bank is looking for inflation.

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Speaker 2: To sit at. The main price pressures came from food,

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Speaker 2: which makes up a big chunk of the basket of goods.

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Speaker 2: So the way they do this is they take a

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Speaker 2: basket of goods and they divide it into different areas.

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Speaker 2: Food is seventeen percent of that. And so if you

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Speaker 2: get big food price increases, the overall inflation increases.

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Speaker 1: Okay, that makes sense.

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Speaker 2: It does. Now you'll be pleased to know a big

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Speaker 2: chunk of the increases was in food, led by the

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Speaker 2: price of lamb and goat.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. It feels like lamb would make up

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Speaker 1: the vast majority of that, right, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I've never eaten eaten in goat.

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Speaker 1: It's nice, is it?

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Speaker 2: But I don't think it's as common as lamb. Avocados, mangoes, asparagus, tomatoes, lettuce,

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Speaker 2: all much more expensive. Now. It's the first time headline

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Speaker 2: and underlying inflation have been in the target two to

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Speaker 2: three percent range since twenty twenty one, and that's occurred

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Speaker 2: without big job losses.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you a question about interest rates,

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Speaker 1: but just on that right when you were talking about

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Speaker 1: that basket of goods, and I don't know whether you

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Speaker 1: can answer this, but you actually identified avocados, mangoes, things

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Speaker 1: like that right, that make up this basket of good

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Speaker 1: good when a lot of these things are seasonal, right,

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Speaker 1: and you end up with mangoes are a hell of

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Speaker 1: a lot more expensive during winter and avocados are a

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Speaker 1: lot more expensive out of season. How do they adjust

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Speaker 1: for seasonality when it comes to items within the basket

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Speaker 1: of goods?

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Speaker 2: Very good question, because most of the ABS Bureau statistics

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Speaker 2: figures are seasonally adjusted. You see SA next to them,

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Speaker 2: and over many years they've been able to shift out

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Speaker 2: the seasonality factors to the mangos there are a great example,

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Speaker 2: So the waiting of amingo might be less in the

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Speaker 2: middle of winter than it is in the middle of summer,

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Speaker 2: for example. And they've just done that, you know, over

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Speaker 2: a long time. So they have a bunch of categories

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Speaker 2: like food, alcohol, clothing, housing, furnishing. Health's always a big one, Transport,

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Speaker 2: insurance is a big one, very expensive at the moment,

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Speaker 2: And they have all these bunch of goods within each

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Speaker 2: of those baskets, and that's how they come up with

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Speaker 2: a number. But they've been doing it so long that

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Speaker 2: they can really take out those seasonality issues.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, So if we've got headline and underlying

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Speaker 1: inflation both in the target range. It just happened, as

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Speaker 1: you say, without big job losses. Why are we going

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Speaker 1: to get a rate cut if things do seem to

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Speaker 1: be in pretty good balance at the moment.

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Speaker 2: So economic growth is a missing factor. It's still pretty sluggish,

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Speaker 2: consumer sentiments poor, say's business sentiment. Really, there's plenty of

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Speaker 2: risks from the Trump trade war. Now there's still some

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Speaker 2: risks in inflation, particularly around services inflation, education, health insurance,

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Speaker 2: those types of things. But we are likely to get

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Speaker 2: a rate cut in May. Those risks mean that I

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Speaker 2: just mentioned men the Reserve Bank won't be a bulleted

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Speaker 2: gate when it comes to it. In fact, many economists

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Speaker 2: are now saying there'll just be two rate cuts this year,

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Speaker 2: not four. But everyone seems to think there will be

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Speaker 2: a cut in May.

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Speaker 1: I hate to be a nitpicker. Hmmm. Actually, I don't

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Speaker 1: hate it at all. It feels like it's the role

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Speaker 1: I was born to play. But you say that the

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Speaker 1: economy broadly writers in pretty good nick at the moment,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like it right, because you just all

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Speaker 1: you need to do is look at the election campaign.

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Speaker 1: The entire campaign has been based around cost of living pressures.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So the two things I'd say on that we're

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Speaker 2: really excited that inflation is under three percent, but that

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean prices are lower. I mean they are up

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Speaker 2: seven percent a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know.

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Speaker 2: And so what we're saying is the pace of price

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Speaker 2: rises has slowed, but they're still high. The other parts

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Speaker 2: of that prices over the last five years up twenty percent.

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Speaker 2: Wages are up fifteen percent. So the cost of living

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Speaker 2: crisis is real because prices have gone up more than wages.

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Speaker 1: On that topic, Sean, you have a great conversation coming

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Speaker 1: up after the show. You are speaking with one of

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Speaker 1: our favorite economists, Sharrell Murphy from EY.

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Speaker 2: We are talking all about what we start. We interview

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Speaker 2: Sharrell to talk to her about the inflation figures, We

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Speaker 2: get into politics, we get into fiscal discipline, we get

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Speaker 2: into all sorts of things. Then we eventually come back

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Speaker 2: to say, what about rate cuts. So it's a great

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Speaker 2: chat about the economy a rule, but based on those

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Speaker 2: figures that came out yesterday and whether or not Shirell

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Speaker 2: thinks that it will be a rate cut in May,

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Speaker 2: which she does, and how many rate cuts will get

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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good conversation. It's coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: Any cutting interest rates is likely to help the local

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Speaker 1: housing market now. Figures released today by Totality, which was

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Speaker 1: formerly known as core Logic, So if you hear us

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Speaker 1: refer into Totality in the future, it's core Logic. That's

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Speaker 1: where it originally came from. Those figure show that house

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Speaker 1: prices across the country rose for the third straight month

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Speaker 1: in April, with two seven hundred and twenty dollars added

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Speaker 1: to the median value of a home.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's across the country, so obviously if you're in

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Speaker 2: somewhere like Sydney, it's actually more. If you're somewhere like

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Speaker 2: Hobart or Darwen it's less. A lifting home values was

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Speaker 2: recorded across every capital city, ranging from zero point two

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Speaker 2: percent in Sydney and Melbourne to more than one percent

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Speaker 2: in Darwin. Now, despite stretched housing affordability, growth in house

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Speaker 2: values is actually outpacing units and regional housing values are

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Speaker 2: actually better than the capital cities. Over the past twelve months.

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Speaker 2: Dwelling values fell two point two percent in Melbourne, was

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Speaker 2: up about one percent in Sydney, down about zero point

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Speaker 2: six percent in Canberra, and then per Adelaide and Brisbane.

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Speaker 2: Zoom cities, zoom cities, boom cities. I think I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to say.

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Speaker 1: I was going to say, zoom cities. Is that where

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Speaker 1: people zoom a lot more or just work remotely? Yes, Yes,

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Speaker 1: there we go region. It sounded deliberate on here. Local markets,

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Speaker 1: how do they perform? Yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Another really good day, five in a row. Now The

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Speaker 2: S and PASX two hundred closed up zero point seven

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Speaker 2: percent to eight one two six points. Broadly speaking, interest

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Speaker 2: rate sensitive stocks did best. Think tech companies, real estate,

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Speaker 2: consumer discretionary stocks. The boring ones that were doing so

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Speaker 2: well didn't do so well. Willis and Cohals went backwards

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Speaker 2: until it is in energy of stocks underperformed. The falling

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Speaker 2: price of goal continues to weigh on the local diggers.

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Speaker 2: Among the large caps, Commwalth Bank, CSL, West Farmers, Aristocrat

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Speaker 2: led the way, Forest Few Metals and Macquari both went backwards.

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Speaker 1: Global markets, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: A couple of really big economic stories. One out of

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Speaker 2: the US, dropping job openings, in a slump in consumer confidence.

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Speaker 2: In fact, confidence will hit a five year low, heading

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Speaker 2: back to COVID nineteen levels. Not good for that economy.

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Speaker 2: And the big story out of China was that factory

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Speaker 2: activity slipped into the worst contraction since twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: It sort of hints at the early damage to the

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Speaker 2: world's second biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Otherwise,

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Speaker 2: os he dollar about sixty four US since and oils

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Speaker 2: trading around sixty two to fifty US eight barrel.

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Speaker 1: It has been a chunky start to the.

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Speaker 2: Show, has been a chunky start.

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Speaker 1: Yes, we have got a lot still to come. We'll

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Speaker 1: be back in a moment with the rest of the

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Speaker 1: day's business news. Sean. We are in the last days

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Speaker 1: of campaigning. All the big announcements well they've really all

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Speaker 1: been made now. There's not that many surprises left. The

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Speaker 1: leaders of the parties are just pretty much doing their

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Speaker 1: best not to lose votes between now and election day.

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Speaker 1: What's the latest?

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Speaker 2: So Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi and Opposition lead to Peter Dunton,

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Speaker 2: you know, chriss crossing the country desperate for those final votes.

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Speaker 2: Alban Easy appeared at the National Press Club yesterday, Peter

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Speaker 2: Dunton and Pete at his fifteenth service station of the campaign.

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Speaker 2: That's got to be a record right at the Press

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Speaker 2: Club in camera the PM. It said the election was

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Speaker 2: a choice between two fundamentally different visions for the direction

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Speaker 2: Australia should go. Typical really of both campaigns at the moment,

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Speaker 2: fairly aggressive attacking of the other side. Now more than

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Speaker 2: four million people have already voted. That's about twenty two

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Speaker 2: percent of enrollment two days ago.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting that polling suggests now that the Coalition is

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Speaker 1: doing relatively well, gaining preferences from One Nation and center

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Speaker 1: right parties, which in turn is tightening up the race

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Speaker 1: for the lodge.

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Speaker 2: It is probably not enough to allow Peter Dutton to

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Speaker 2: become Prime Minister, according to those polls. It does add

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Speaker 2: to the argument that the Coalition could win some outer

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Speaker 2: city seats, meaning the ALP will be returned, but possibly

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Speaker 2: as a minority government. The JWS Research polling suggests in

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Speaker 2: outer suburban seats One Nation, Family First and Trumpet of

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Speaker 2: Patriots that's Clive Palmer's party are collectively polling around ten percent,

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Speaker 2: so their preferences definitely will matter.

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Speaker 1: Michael and just staying in politics, the US President Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump has said that Australia has been calling him to

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Speaker 1: talk about tariffs, though it's not clear when a conversationation

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Speaker 1: will take place.

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Speaker 2: Who made the phone call or whether you had a

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Speaker 2: phone to ring, who had the phone number?

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Speaker 1: All these unknowns. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Look, he was asked by nine media and he said that, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they are calling and I will be talking to him. Yes,

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Speaker 2: we're referring to Anthony Alberanzi. Treats of Jim Chalmers yesterday

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Speaker 2: said Alberanzi would have a conversation with Donald Trump, but

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Speaker 2: he's not sure when.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't the Labor Party just be praying that it happens

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Speaker 1: in say, the next twenty four hours, because wouldn't that

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Speaker 1: be a good look to be able to say that, yes,

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Speaker 1: we are the party that's been able to connect to

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Speaker 1: the president before you go to the polls.

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Speaker 2: Yes, probably. I don't know. The thing with Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: you just never know what he's going to say as

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Speaker 2: a result.

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Speaker 1: Of that, that's a good point. It could backfire spectacularly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Anyway. Cole Supermarkets SEAN has boosted sales to ten point

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Speaker 1: four billion dollars for the March quarter as it continues

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Speaker 1: to outperformance art Trival woollies.

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Speaker 2: It's really hard to compare to the markets, but one

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Speaker 2: way is to look at the share price Willies overing

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Speaker 2: the last twelve months is down one percent. It's share

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Speaker 2: price Coles is up thirty percent. It's quite incredible. Cole

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Speaker 2: CEO Leah Weckertt said, cost of living pressures are evident

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Speaker 2: in sales. Home brands are doing really well. Even I

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Speaker 2: think it's called Coal's Finest. Is there, Coal's Finest, so there.

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Speaker 2: Even their luxury home brand is doing really well. Promotions

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Speaker 2: and discounts are still working. So Coal's doesn't have as

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Speaker 2: many promotions, but they're more likely to take forty or

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Speaker 2: fifty percent off the price of something rather than have

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Speaker 2: twenty or thirty percent off a bunch of things, and

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Speaker 2: they argue that works better. Also interestingly, Cole's e commerce

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Speaker 2: channel now accounts for about eleven percent of sales all

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Speaker 2: he reports its numbers today.

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Speaker 1: Star Entertainment is continuing to lose money across its gaming outlets,

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Speaker 1: with the introduction of cash limits and mandatory identification cards

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Speaker 1: out at Sydney Casino triggering a quarterly.

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Speaker 2: Lost yes twenty one million dollars it lost pre tax.

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Speaker 2: DAR says there is still a material uncertainty regarding its

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Speaker 2: ability to continue as a going concern. There were seasonal

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Speaker 2: declines seasonal factors Earlier in the Shadow Seasonal Manga's seasonal

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Speaker 2: the kinds in revenue, reduced levels of gaming visitation, and

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Speaker 2: a one off impact of weather in Queensland during.

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Speaker 1: March turned into international news. Now Donald Trump has marked

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Speaker 1: one hundred days in office by holding the biggest rally

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Speaker 1: since his election. He held it in Michigan, the home

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Speaker 1: of automaking in the US, and he continued his tirades

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Speaker 1: on immigration. On his predecessor, the Federal Reserve Chair, No

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Speaker 1: one missed out, really no.

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Speaker 2: He had a crack at how Joe Biden appears in

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Speaker 2: a bathing suit. Oh that's not fair, He questioned his

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Speaker 2: mental acuity. Actually, what would Donald Trump look like in

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Speaker 2: a bathing Sorry, no, I didn't need to say it.

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Speaker 1: The image is there now. It has been burnt into

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Speaker 1: my brain.

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Speaker 2: Trump repeated that he won the twenty twenty election, even

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Speaker 2: though he didn't, and he was critical of news courage

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Speaker 2: not favorable to him. On the FED, he said, I

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Speaker 2: quite inflation is basically down and interest rates came down

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Speaker 2: despite the fact I have a person who's not really

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Speaker 2: doing a good job. He was, of course, referring to

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Speaker 2: Jay Powell, the chair Trump said he knew more about

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Speaker 2: interest rates than Powell. He also returned to immigration, he

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Speaker 2: signature issue, boasting about his administration's mass deportation efforts that

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Speaker 2: have sent arrests for illegal crossings along the US Mexico

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Speaker 2: border plummeting.

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Speaker 1: And the Trump tariffs are hitting big business in the US.

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Speaker 1: Delivery group UPS says or cut twenty thousand jobs. General

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Speaker 1: Motors has dumped its earnings outlook statement on the back

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Speaker 1: of all the uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: Heah, we talked about this in Australia a couple of

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Speaker 2: days of that ago. In the US, companies are telling

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Speaker 2: investors that revenue and earnings will be hit by the

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Speaker 2: economic malaise spurred by the trade wars. So Craft Times,

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Speaker 2: maker of tomato sauce, the ketchen Kecha.

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Speaker 1: I suppose if we're talking us, it's got to be

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Speaker 1: ketchup right. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Craft Highs, maker of ketchum, among other things, has pulled

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Speaker 2: its outlook for earnings, as have Electrolux and airline Jet

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Speaker 2: Blue Airways. Coca Cola it came out and said some

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Speaker 2: consumers in the US with drinking less coke. So to

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Speaker 2: your consumers in Denmark and Mexico. As a result of

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Speaker 2: Trump's policies.

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Speaker 1: It's Denmark, a big poke market.

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Speaker 2: Don't know and don't know how you made that either.

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Speaker 2: Roud's analysis says about forty companies worldwide have pulled or

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Speaker 2: lowered their forward guidance in the past. Fortnite executives are

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Speaker 2: worried that the Trump trade policies not so much well

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Speaker 2: input costs, but also just hits consumer and business sentiment,

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Speaker 2: and that sort of damage is not easily undone.

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Speaker 1: All right, Big show, Sean. Up next is the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Daily Interview. Your guest today, Charelle Murphy from

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Speaker 1: Ey You can find it on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: a Fearangreed dot com today you, which is also where

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Speaker 1: you sign up for the free daily newsletter. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much, Michael. It is Thursday, the first of May

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and

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Speaker 1: please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have

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Speaker 1: a great day.