Speaker 1: From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live Hio mate,
Speaker 1: Happy Monday.
Speaker 2: Thank you to everyone who joined us in Springvale on
Speaker 2: the outskirts of Melbourne yesterday. So good to see, so
Speaker 2: good to hang out. Had a huge thank you to
Speaker 2: Caylor Bond who is here on Thursday night as I
Speaker 2: spent a bit of time with the family.
Speaker 1: Firstly was my wife's birthday.
Speaker 2: Love your Darlin, but also an opportunity and I know
Speaker 2: you'd get this as parents or grandparents, but it was
Speaker 2: the school performance thing. But they don't really do plays
Speaker 2: and he more certainly not at our school, so every
Speaker 2: single class gets the chance to do a dance. And
Speaker 2: of course my kids were the most awesome. But it
Speaker 2: is just that incredible experience, isn't it. We you get
Speaker 2: to see these little people who you're held in your
Speaker 2: arms standing up there with a big smile and a
Speaker 2: confidence that only comes from challenging yourself. So I hope
Speaker 2: you got the opportunity to see that at some time
Speaker 2: over the weekend with the little ones that you love too.
Speaker 2: So let's get into tonight's show. I want to show
Speaker 2: you a bloke from the UK who's kind of going
Speaker 2: to explain the Australian economy better than I could explain
Speaker 2: parts of it here. We won't be doing it any
Speaker 2: to show you a little bit of what he had
Speaker 2: to say. Of course, I'll talk about the madness of
Speaker 2: the protests, but there's a little detail that you need
Speaker 2: to learn before you have any expectations that something's going
Speaker 2: to happen to these people, and a little preview of
Speaker 2: the next big things happen in the American election, and
Speaker 2: that of course is the vice presidential debate between the
Speaker 2: blokho they want to constantly talk about abortion and the
Speaker 2: other one who wants to pretend he's not going and
Speaker 2: that being the guy on the right of your screen
Speaker 2: to introduce laws as he did as a state governor,
Speaker 2: to take kids away from their parents if they don't
Speaker 2: believe that the kids should transition. But first, as always,
Speaker 2: Australia first, and we try to focus on the number
Speaker 2: one issue that matters now. For those who are invested
Speaker 2: in the stock market, today was a very good day.
Speaker 2: In fact, there was a brand new record high for
Speaker 2: the stock market, So all well and good if you're
Speaker 2: somebody who is day trading or is pulling their money
Speaker 2: out anytime soon and of course, in Camber today, the
Speaker 2: excitement was that the federal government has enough money left
Speaker 2: over to had itself on the back.
Speaker 3: The federal budget is in better shape than anticipated.
Speaker 2: The surplus for the most recent financial year is six
Speaker 2: billion dollars higher than forecast. Australia's finances are looking billions
Speaker 2: of dollars better tonight.
Speaker 4: Treasureer Jim Chalmers says the first back to back budget
Speaker 4: surpluses in almost two decades proves the government has tightened
Speaker 4: its belt.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll tell you why that's not true in like
Speaker 2: thirty seconds. But first some gloating from Grimjim.
Speaker 5: This is a powerful demonstration of our responsible economic management.
Speaker 5: Responsible economic management is a defining feature of the Albanese
Speaker 5: labor government and it wouldn't have happened without our responsible
Speaker 5: economic management. It wouldn't have happened without our spending restraint.
Speaker 2: Oh wow, wow, as the kids would say, gas lighting
Speaker 2: for the rest of us. Well, let's just start to
Speaker 2: pull apart this garbage now. The reality is that this
Speaker 2: government has been able to post its surpluses because of
Speaker 2: the amount of money that is coming through its front door.
Speaker 2: And guess where the number one source of money for
Speaker 2: this federal government is you and me, those who pay
Speaker 2: their tax by being an employee. In fact, have a
Speaker 2: look at this number here. Treasurer Jim Chalmer's second budget
Speaker 2: has been underwritten by the highest share of personal income
Speaker 2: tax since before the GST was.
Speaker 1: Introduced back in the year two thousand.
Speaker 2: So that's twenty five years of the system that was
Speaker 2: put in place by John Howard and now he reaps
Speaker 2: the most amount. Ever, when it comes to income tax,
Speaker 2: the amount of personal tax paid by Australians boomed by
Speaker 2: an extra one million people who were securing jobs under
Speaker 2: the government and bracket creep.
Speaker 1: You see, remember the two little too low tax cuts.
Speaker 2: Well they still of course had not just those but
Speaker 2: also a whole bunch of people who ended up going
Speaker 2: up a bracket, meaning they were paying more tax, in
Speaker 2: which the norminal income growth causes individuals to pay higher
Speaker 2: average taxation rates each year. Now Australia and its budget
Speaker 2: is a Ponzi scheme because when we were twenty five
Speaker 2: million people, we were of course running in a deficit.
Speaker 2: Now we are the best part of twenty seven million
Speaker 2: people because this government in the past two years I'm
Speaker 2: not counting the other half that they have still had
Speaker 2: responsibility has brought in more than.
Speaker 1: A million people.
Speaker 2: Now, yes, some of these people may be old under
Speaker 2: family reunion, some of them may be young because they're
Speaker 2: the kids of the workers who end up coming in.
Speaker 1: But when they talk about a million brand new jobs.
Speaker 2: Guess who has them the people who have come into
Speaker 2: the country. The net migration number remains one million and
Speaker 2: seventy three thousand, eight hundred people.
Speaker 1: So that's the actual.
Speaker 2: Mats behind what he it's talking. There's about economic restraint.
Speaker 2: It's about bringing in as many people as they physically can,
Speaker 2: hoping that they get a job, hoping that they pay
Speaker 2: tax to plug the holes of the promise spending which
Speaker 2: would otherwise without those million people, have had us in
Speaker 2: a budget deficit. Now, the budget surplus, as you know,
Speaker 2: fifteen point eight billion in twenty three twenty four. It
Speaker 2: is down from the one that was twelve months earlier.
Speaker 2: But have a look at this. Personal income tax topped
Speaker 2: three hundred and thirty one billion dollars, or fifty two
Speaker 2: percent of the federal government's total tax take, so literally
Speaker 2: more than the GST, more than company tax, more than
Speaker 2: half of every dollar the federal government has to peddle
Speaker 2: up against the wall comes from you and me.
Speaker 1: That is the reality.
Speaker 2: Now, I want to show you a graph that was
Speaker 2: in the Financial Review today to help explain this particular phenomena.
Speaker 1: Now, firstly, have a look at the.
Speaker 2: Blue squiggle which is the top there, that shows personal
Speaker 2: income tax. Now the government when the GST was introduced,
Speaker 2: the tax take was forty five and a half percent
Speaker 2: of the total revenue to government. Twenty five years later,
Speaker 2: you may well notice quite and up to since this
Speaker 2: mob took.
Speaker 1: Over fifty two point three percent.
Speaker 2: Now, a very faint line that I don't expect you
Speaker 2: to see on television, but maybe actually you can see
Speaker 2: it there with the red is the GST, which basically
Speaker 2: has been about the same amount of money in terms
Speaker 2: of the percentage of money that the federal government gets
Speaker 2: each and every year. But the percentage which wildly fell
Speaker 2: when the GST was introduced, has slowly inched right back
Speaker 2: to where.
Speaker 1: We were twenty five years ago.
Speaker 2: Where the government is now fifty two point three percent
Speaker 2: of its money coming through its front door is coming
Speaker 2: through its front door as a result of personal income tax.
Speaker 1: And before this treasure returns around.
Speaker 2: And again gives himself a gold star, and how amazing
Speaker 2: aware because two surfaces in a row means the economy
Speaker 2: is amazing. Every bit of spending that we've got is responsible.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: The prediction of his own treasury for the next twenty
Speaker 2: something years is that they are about to spend way
Speaker 2: more than even the money they get right now. So
Speaker 2: even though personal income tax is going to be more
Speaker 2: than half of the money that they get. What you
Speaker 2: can see there is every single line after the dotted
Speaker 2: line is an expected deficit. Now they get slightly better
Speaker 2: while we're getting towards the end of the twenty thirties,
Speaker 2: and then fum all the way into the deepest of
Speaker 2: black holes. Now, remember, every one of those deficits ends
Speaker 2: up being added to the previous one, which means the
Speaker 2: trillion dollars in debt fast becomes one point two one
Speaker 2: point five, and eventually we start to march our way
Speaker 2: towards two trillion dollars worth of debt. Because the way
Speaker 2: the whole thing is structured is that unless you have
Speaker 2: a Ponzi scheme of more people coming into jobs and
Speaker 2: more people therefore paying tax, the actual amount of money
Speaker 2: that is already put aside and has locked in every
Speaker 2: federal government still to come into our future, regardless of
Speaker 2: their political position, they have to spend more than last year, more.
Speaker 1: Than the year before, more than the year before, more
Speaker 1: than the year before.
Speaker 2: Certainly as people get older, hence why as workers leave,
Speaker 2: they need to fill the Ponzi scheme for every one
Speaker 2: person who's no longer paying tax you want to replace.
Speaker 2: But because we don't have enough babies in the country,
Speaker 2: or as we showed you last week, there are many, many,
Speaker 2: hundreds of thousands of people who still owe money to
Speaker 2: universities because they have never actually earned the fifty thousand
Speaker 2: dollars to start paying it back. So much so that
Speaker 2: now eighty two before billion dollars is being spent by
Speaker 2: the federal government on higher education but not being paid
Speaker 2: back by its students, let alone this federal government making
Speaker 2: spending decisions that has seen welfare as a percentage of
Speaker 2: the total pie of the budget steadily increase even in
Speaker 2: the two years that they've been able to produce a surplus.
Speaker 2: These are the realities of the economy as it sits now.
Speaker 2: The government wants you to be distracted by today's headline
Speaker 2: about this year's budget. They want you to be distracted
Speaker 2: by what's happening when it comes to the stock market.
Speaker 2: But guess what, there is some data, there is some
Speaker 2: detail that show that it's only the top end of
Speaker 2: town that does okay. The rest of us, well, we
Speaker 2: are struggling. In fact, what does the ABC have in
Speaker 2: common with the Australian newspaper. What does the Australian Institute
Speaker 2: of Company Directors have in common with the left wing
Speaker 2: thing tank the Australia Institute where the Greens get a
Speaker 2: lot of their data from. That Australia is in a
Speaker 2: per capita recession, meaning that while the government will tell
Speaker 2: you that the economy is not in a recession because
Speaker 2: it is ever so slightly growing by zero point one
Speaker 2: or zero point two or zero point three percent, the
Speaker 2: only reason that's happening is because the federal government is
Speaker 2: hiring and state governments are hiring more public servants and
Speaker 2: giving them greater pay rises than the ones that anyone
Speaker 2: in the normal economy would actually be doing. It's also
Speaker 2: because the state governments, thanks to the money they get
Speaker 2: from the federal government, which of course is in part
Speaker 2: and mainly the GST, is turning around and spending a
Speaker 2: lot of money on infrastructure, but they're spending way beyond
Speaker 2: even the money that's coming in, meaning they are borrowing.
Speaker 2: Meaning the collective debt of the States is now in
Speaker 2: line with the federal government, which, as I just showed you,
Speaker 2: is only going to go deeper in the hole from
Speaker 2: now until the twenty sixties. So if your wages have
Speaker 2: not kept up with the inflation that has been roaring
Speaker 2: for the past couple of years, if your wages have
Speaker 2: not kept up with the twelve interest rate rises under
Speaker 2: this government, then you're going backwards. And in fact you
Speaker 2: have been going backwards not a little bit. In fact,
Speaker 2: you have been going backwards now for six quarters in
Speaker 2: a row. That is now a scenario where we are
Speaker 2: getting close to two full years of a recession in
Speaker 2: real Australia. Now, despite the fact that let's show that
Speaker 2: number again, a million people have been added to the
Speaker 2: overall population, meaning that a million people are now paying
Speaker 2: more tax to the government. That is now of all
Speaker 2: of the money it gets getting more money from indo
Speaker 2: dual taxpayers than it is anything else. This is hiding
Speaker 2: the reality of the Australian economy. It's not about the
Speaker 2: headlines they can tell you in canber. It's about what
Speaker 2: is actually happening in real Australia and believe it or not,
Speaker 2: an economics reporter on the ABC will help point this out.
Speaker 3: GDP is actually a pretty blunt kind of measure when
Speaker 3: it comes to economic performance. All it does is measure
Speaker 3: the amount of staff that we produce and consume. So
Speaker 3: you know, there's an argument that it's a dumb way
Speaker 3: to keep yourself out of recession simply by adding more
Speaker 3: people into the economy, because it's not a real reflection
Speaker 3: of your economic performance. So if you trip that out,
Speaker 3: we're gone backwards for six consecutive quarters, which is not
Speaker 3: a great performance for the economy.
Speaker 2: And the other thing and why I don't think that
Speaker 2: Australians are going to be moved to think more warmly
Speaker 2: about the federal government because of what may or may
Speaker 2: not be happening with the federal budget is, as we
Speaker 2: told you last night, there are more people than ever
Speaker 2: before who need to to a charity to find something
Speaker 2: to eat for themselves or their families. We know that
Speaker 2: people are going without food for themselves for their kids.
Speaker 2: In fact, we spoke to the bloke from Turbans for
Speaker 2: Australia last night on our ourtound show that was in
Speaker 2: Melbourne about how many.
Speaker 1: People need help from his organization.
Speaker 6: Young couples working full time, a part time or even
Speaker 6: two jobs. You put food on the table to average
Speaker 6: pensioners and homeless people and others. So everyone in the
Speaker 6: society is suffering at the moment due to this rising
Speaker 6: cost of living.
Speaker 2: So despite the fact that the federal budget now has
Speaker 2: more money than they intended to spend, meaning they have
Speaker 2: billions of dollars left over, there is no plan to
Speaker 2: give the charities that are taking care of the people
Speaker 2: at the absolute bottom of our economy are sent more,
Speaker 2: let alone any further changes for you or I the
Speaker 2: actual engine room of the Australian budget, any changes to
Speaker 2: help you or I when it comes to cost of living,
Speaker 2: which means that people like Jackie Lamby quite correctly say
Speaker 2: I don't care what your budget number is. The reality
Speaker 2: is that when Australians are hurting, you are missing.
Speaker 7: Nobody gives us stuff about a surplus. Mate, I can
Speaker 7: assure you right now, people are doing it hard out there.
Speaker 7: Nobody's talking about a surplus. And if they were, and
Speaker 7: they truly understood to be saying, well, how about you
Speaker 7: put some of that surplus out to us so we
Speaker 7: can put bread and milk on the table for our
Speaker 7: kids and do that without without raising the inflation. You know,
Speaker 7: surely with a surplus, people are really hurting out their caual. Honestly,
Speaker 7: give them more.
Speaker 1: Find a way to do it.
Speaker 2: Principally and most importantly is that I don't want to
Speaker 2: muck around when it comes to the inflation numbers. And
Speaker 2: they're going to say, well, if we sent people checks
Speaker 2: that had caused trouble, why not crack off a billion
Speaker 2: dollars of the money that you have now been able
Speaker 2: to see said that you have nowhere else to spend
Speaker 2: in the economy, and spend a billion dollars of that
Speaker 2: extra money and give it to the charities of Australia
Speaker 2: as a one off payment to help people who are
Speaker 2: in trouble today. Another reason why there won't be a
Speaker 2: political bounce out of the government telling you how amazing
Speaker 2: their economic responsibility is because again we're not living in
Speaker 2: that world.
Speaker 1: As you know, the cost of living crisis leads.
Speaker 2: To many lies that come out of the Prime Minister
Speaker 2: and the Treasurer. Now, despite the fact that friendly media
Speaker 2: will turn around and say that because the inflation rate
Speaker 2: is now the best it's been in a couple of
Speaker 2: years time that literally they posted this was Channel nine
Speaker 2: mission accomplished. But mission accomplished when it comes to inflation
Speaker 2: is just as fake as George W. Bush saying mission
Speaker 2: was accomplished in Iraq, a war that kept going for
Speaker 2: the best part of ten more years. And let me explain,
Speaker 2: in fact, I won't explain an economics report from Sky
Speaker 2: News in the UK. He explains beautifully why the headline
Speaker 2: number that gets all of the politicians excited to say
Speaker 2: we've got a two in front of it, and the
Speaker 2: media who wants to move on from this story because
Speaker 2: they're bored with it, is not felt by you and I.
Speaker 2: In fact, you see it's not just about the last
Speaker 2: number they reported.
Speaker 1: He'll explain better than I can.
Speaker 8: That's the cost of living crisis. Suddenly we went up
Speaker 8: from prices being around there to prices being there and
Speaker 8: you don't really see that in this data, okay, because
Speaker 8: inflation is really just measuring the difference between that and that.
Speaker 8: And if you look at those two lines, you're talking
Speaker 8: about a two point three percent change. That's the number
Speaker 8: we're talking about today. But for a lot of people
Speaker 8: it's not about that. It's about the difference between this
Speaker 8: and that. And when you look at the difference between
Speaker 8: this and that, that's twenty percent.
Speaker 1: See that's the point.
Speaker 2: The two from this quarter is added to the two
Speaker 2: from the previous to the four before you get the point.
Speaker 2: This is the Australia version of that graph. Now the
Speaker 2: government would want you to say, well, hang on, it's
Speaker 2: gone up and now it's coming back down. No, every
Speaker 2: little one of these points, of course, you add together.
Speaker 2: So even though the numbers going up, so say again,
Speaker 2: I'm just going to make it easy to understand. They
Speaker 2: might be threes or fours, and the very top is five,
Speaker 2: and then five becomes four, becomes three, becomes two. You
Speaker 2: add it all together, and prices are way higher than
Speaker 2: they were in twenty and twenty, where yes there was
Speaker 2: a pandemic. But more importantly, let's compare it to prices
Speaker 2: in two thousand and nineteen or even twenty and twenty one.
Speaker 1: If you started that journey.
Speaker 2: When it comes to twenty and twenty one to today,
Speaker 2: all of that looks like it goes up and it
Speaker 2: comes down, but it's actually one on top of the other,
Speaker 2: on top of the other, on top of the other,
Speaker 2: on top of the other, which is why the government
Speaker 2: gets no credit from those of us who are in
Speaker 2: the real world who may not be playing the stock
Speaker 2: market like people did today. The people who don't have
Speaker 2: a business that means they can pay a top marginal
Speaker 2: tax rate of the company tax rate. Instead they work
Speaker 2: for a business, meaning that depending on how much you earn,
Speaker 2: that's how much tax they take on top of that.
Speaker 2: Of course, there are millions of Australians whose superannuation is
Speaker 2: taken out of their wages. It's not their wages and superannuation,
Speaker 2: you see. That's the scenario for everyone in the government sector,
Speaker 2: but for everyone in the private sector. A very significant
Speaker 2: number of people have all the money they earn and
Speaker 2: then the government takes some for your retirement. This government
Speaker 2: has got legislation which means they take more, meaning you
Speaker 2: are about to continue to get under this government, a
Speaker 2: real decline in the amount of money that you get
Speaker 2: every fortnight or every month that you then have to
Speaker 2: turn around and use that money to pay for things
Speaker 2: that cost way more than they did before they became
Speaker 2: the government, or try and pay off a house that's
Speaker 2: gone up twelve times in interest rates. So I don't
Speaker 2: care what the Camber Gallery says about what happened today.
Speaker 2: In the real world, it's hurting as bad as it
Speaker 2: ever has which brings us to the opinion polls today
Speaker 2: and Newspoles started to break down some of the numbers
Speaker 2: that they have been looking out over the past few months.
Speaker 2: They were able to do so state by state. They
Speaker 2: were able to start to break down things by it
Speaker 2: by gender and even the amount of money that people
Speaker 2: earn to see what their perception was of the government.
Speaker 2: The headline wasn't amazing. In fact, it's not good news
Speaker 2: at all when it comes to the Labor Party. But
Speaker 2: it is really bad news for Anthony Albernezi, who remember
Speaker 2: has said I've never lost a news poll. Or I'm
Speaker 2: about to show him how he losing a news poll.
Speaker 2: You see, if you only go by the two party preferred,
Speaker 2: it's never got worse than fifty to fifty. But if
Speaker 2: you go by the amount of votes they got when
Speaker 2: there was an election versus the amount of votes that
Speaker 2: are on the table today, a fall of three and
Speaker 2: a half percent in New South Wales would result in
Speaker 2: multiple seats disappearing from the Labor column. An almost two
Speaker 2: percent drop would do the same in Victoria. They're so
Speaker 2: far behind in Queensland that they might be able to
Speaker 2: fend off the Greens perhaps, but they're unlikely to win
Speaker 2: any further seats. They may well again be able to
Speaker 2: hold off in places like South Australia, and interestingly, the
Speaker 2: assumption was that some seats could be disappearing in Western Australia,
Speaker 2: but at this moment there is no change in the
Speaker 2: primary vote.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: Of course, thirty six is way below the fifty point
Speaker 2: one you need to actually win a seat, so preferences matter.
Speaker 2: If you say, buger them all, you're going to get
Speaker 2: a labor government. If you decide to put a party
Speaker 2: of government that you wish to be the government, as
Speaker 2: you're number two, then you will get something other than
Speaker 2: a labor government.
Speaker 1: But again the Prime.
Speaker 2: Minister himself, the Prime Minister, of course, says I've never
Speaker 2: lost a newspole. Well guess what, Pal, You are now
Speaker 2: losing newspoll in every state. In fact, if you have
Speaker 2: a look here, the dark red or marone is the
Speaker 2: number of people that are satisfied with the Prime minister.
Speaker 2: The sort of orange are those who are unsatisfied or
Speaker 2: dissatisfied with the Prime Minister and those that are uncommitted
Speaker 2: as the gray. You can see that nationally, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland,
Speaker 2: South Australia and Western Australia all are in negative territory
Speaker 2: for the Prime Minister. In fact, nationally, fifty two percent
Speaker 2: of people are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister. Break it
Speaker 2: down by state and you have the same number in
Speaker 2: New South Wales, half of Victoria, fifty six percent of
Speaker 2: people in Queensland, fifty four percent of people in South Australia,
Speaker 2: fifty two percent of people in Western Australia.
Speaker 1: Well, what about by age, surely it's just the oldies.
Speaker 2: No, All bar eighteen to thirty four dissatisfied out rank
Speaker 2: satisfied with middle aged people from thirty five to forty nine,
Speaker 2: from fifty to sixty four, and people whom hopefully have
Speaker 2: been able to retire on their own terms at sixty
Speaker 2: five plus. You can see the middle column, which is dissatisfied,
Speaker 2: grows the older you get, because the older you get,
Speaker 2: the wiser you get. Okay, Well, maybe it's just sort
Speaker 2: of okay, it's a whole bunch of self funded, retire
Speaker 2: re rich people. That's a problem too. Remember how this
Speaker 2: government is totally focused on cost of delivery. Well, people
Speaker 2: who weren't between zero and fifty thousand dollars majority are
Speaker 2: dissatisfied with the Prime minister. Between fifty and ninety nine
Speaker 2: they are majority dissatisfied with the Prime minister. People who
Speaker 2: went over one hundred to one hundred and fifty are
Speaker 2: dissatisfied with the Prime minister.
Speaker 1: And one hundred and fifty grand it's what you earn.
Speaker 2: And remember all of those groups represent more than half
Speaker 2: of all of the federal government money that they get
Speaker 2: when it comes to all of the taxes. So companies
Speaker 2: aren't paying it. People are paying it. Companies are paying
Speaker 2: their fair share. The GST is doing what it does,
Speaker 2: but in terms of the total pie, it's growing, as
Speaker 2: are the costs, as are the pressure.
Speaker 1: Which is why I talk about it every night.
Speaker 2: While we focus on it all the time while others
Speaker 2: may come and go and sort of, you know, pretend
Speaker 2: they will be. We're on it every night because we
Speaker 2: know how nervous people are. So maybe it's just a
Speaker 2: bloke thing. Maybe it's just a bloke's earning any money
Speaker 2: because remember it's the Liberal Party that has the problem
Speaker 2: with women. Well that's a problem too, you see, both
Speaker 2: men and women are dissatisfied with the job that the
Speaker 2: Prime Minister is doing.
Speaker 1: So as my colleague Andrew.
Speaker 2: Clenell was doing the today to try to find out
Speaker 2: what Labour insiders, we're thinking about the polls that showed
Speaker 2: every gender, every income bracket and all bar the youngest
Speaker 2: of voters have turned on the Prime minister. What would
Speaker 2: that mean for his current slender majority government.
Speaker 9: Well, a Labour source has told me that right now
Speaker 9: they're behind in four marginal seats in New South Wales.
Speaker 1: Let's have a look at them.
Speaker 9: This is where Labor I am told and then along
Speaker 9: that that's after redistributions and margins, right, so that's why
Speaker 9: it's called liberal there Gilmore in the South coast, Robertson
Speaker 9: on the central coast, Patterson in the Hunter and Banalong
Speaker 9: in Sydney. My source tells me as things stand, Labor
Speaker 9: are behind in these key seats.
Speaker 2: So after the election it was seventy seven seats. After
Speaker 2: the by election it was seventy eight seats. They lose
Speaker 2: those four we are down to seventy four and we're
Speaker 2: off to a minority government. And we have and even
Speaker 2: crossed the Murray River or gone north.
Speaker 1: Of the tweed.
Speaker 2: As for the idiocy that we have seen on our
Speaker 2: streets over the past couple of days, I agree with
Speaker 2: everything that's been said by all of my colleagues who
Speaker 2: have with great articulation and passion spoken obviously about the
Speaker 2: madness of people who are amongst us who would be
Speaker 2: celebrating the death of a terrorist. Now, as you know,
Speaker 2: politicians have decided that this is the line in the
Speaker 2: sand where apparently these are the people who must be
Speaker 2: brought into line for supporting the wrong side of the fight.
Speaker 10: It's time for the Prime Minister, the Home Affairs Minister,
Speaker 10: the Attorney General to make very clear the community's expectations
Speaker 10: to the police, but the law be enforced, that people
Speaker 10: be charged, that there be consequences for this abhorrent behavior.
Speaker 5: This has been a failure of leadership from the Prime
Speaker 5: Minister from the word go.
Speaker 11: If we've got people here who think that that organization
Speaker 11: is okay and they're saddened by the death of this terrorist,
Speaker 11: if they're on a visa, they should be deported.
Speaker 2: My apologies, So I thought there'd be a couple of
Speaker 2: labor ones in there. Obviously, the opposition's been very strong
Speaker 2: for the best part of the past twelve months about
Speaker 2: this stuff, and well and truly before. But as for
Speaker 2: the government, Tony Burke, who of.
Speaker 1: Course we all know why he says. What he says
Speaker 1: is saying.
Speaker 2: That anyone who's responsible for holding a Hesbalah flag or
Speaker 2: celebrating the passing of a terrorist leader, I will cancel
Speaker 2: their visas we can. I make a grand prediction. I
Speaker 2: think the extreme majority of people who would technically fall
Speaker 2: into that category were born here. You see, the reality
Speaker 2: is that the extreme majority of people who are being
Speaker 2: charged with terror offenses in Australia were born in Australia.
Speaker 2: They should be the people who are the beneficiaries of
Speaker 2: the great ulticultural society. That meant that they felt loved
Speaker 2: by this country, understood and accepted by this country, because
Speaker 2: of course it was their parents or maybe grandparents who
Speaker 2: came to the country. Yet something is wrong when the
Speaker 2: people born in this country would gladly turn on this
Speaker 2: country in favor of people who would go after this country.
Speaker 2: So forget all the visa business. So let's imagine the
Speaker 2: state laws that are in place would be the ones
Speaker 2: that the Australian Federal Police would be using potentially to
Speaker 2: go after people for holding up terrorist symbols.
Speaker 1: Now, when these laws were all.
Speaker 2: Past a couple of years ago, this was all about,
Speaker 2: generally speaking, banning things like swastikas, right, and banning things
Speaker 2: like the Nazi salute. Because HESBLA is a terrorist organization
Speaker 2: recognized as in this country. As such, any sort of
Speaker 2: paraphernalia in favor of them would be in the exact
Speaker 2: same box. But again, if you think that there's about
Speaker 2: to be a whole collection of arrests and a whole
Speaker 2: collection of books being thrown at this people, again, I'm
Speaker 2: sorry to say that the system talks one way but
Speaker 2: walks almost in the direct opposite reaction. In fact, despite
Speaker 2: the fact that the Federal Police have said that at
Speaker 2: least six people, wow, six people may well end up
Speaker 2: on the wrong side of the law.
Speaker 1: In a statement earlier.
Speaker 2: Today, the Federal Police said that displaying ophibrited flag in
Speaker 2: isolation was not enough to charge an individual with a
Speaker 2: terrorist offense. So many of these people may not end
Speaker 2: up anywhere near terrorist charges.
Speaker 1: So again we go back to.
Speaker 2: The state laws where the banned symbols like the terrorist
Speaker 2: flag would end up being what you're going to cop. Well,
Speaker 2: guess what, there is no minimum sentence for these fines.
Speaker 2: There is only a maximum. The maximum fine in Victorious
Speaker 2: twenty two thousand dollars. The maximum jail term is twelve months.
Speaker 2: The maximum fine in usipios is dollars or fifty five thousand.
Speaker 1: Dollars for a corporation, or the.
Speaker 2: Maximum is twelve months. So let's imagine the police, who
Speaker 2: of course have done very little, if not bugger all,
Speaker 2: to go after the people who protested in the way
Speaker 2: they did immediately after October the seventh. Well, they finally
Speaker 2: find people because they go through the footage and then
Speaker 2: they decide they're going to hand this to the Department
Speaker 2: of Prosecution Public Prosecutions, who will then decide whether they
Speaker 2: do or don't charge. Well, then they'll of course get
Speaker 2: in front of judges and magistrates who could send them
Speaker 2: to jail for twelve months or not, or find them
Speaker 2: fifty five thousand dollars or not. Now let's turn our
Speaker 2: attention to the United States and what's been happening there.
Speaker 2: Of course, the countdown to the election. We will be
Speaker 2: in the United States for the election, but I've got
Speaker 2: some interesting data for you tonight to give you a
Speaker 2: little bit of a greater picture about whom is actually
Speaker 2: winning right now. So there was an opinion poll which
Speaker 2: is showing that Latino voters or LATINX or LATINX, depending
Speaker 2: on how lefty you.
Speaker 1: Are, guess what.
Speaker 2: The Democrats in twenty twelve had sixty five percent of
Speaker 2: Latino voters. Hillary Clinton had sixty nine percent, Joe Biden
Speaker 2: had sixty three percent, and Kamala Harris has fifty four percent.
Speaker 2: When Trump first ran, it was nineteen percent, then it
Speaker 2: was twenty seven percent, and now it's forty percent.
Speaker 1: Latino voters, of course, make.
Speaker 2: Up millions of voters all over the country. And even
Speaker 2: when this polling, which came from the left wing news
Speaker 2: organization NBC, was being discussed on the airwaves of NBC,
Speaker 2: one of the commentators who doesn't like people thinking for
Speaker 2: themselves and not just voting as one ethnic group all
Speaker 2: the same all the time, will got racist about it.
Speaker 12: Latinos want to be wait, they want to be with
Speaker 12: the cool kids. They want to be I mean asking
Speaker 12: Latinos all the time and they just say, well, if
Speaker 12: a Donald Trump is done when he was leane, he's
Speaker 12: such a good businessman, It's like, no, he's not. He
Speaker 12: had bankruptcies. But they don't want to be identified with
Speaker 12: all of those other immigrants that Donald Trump speaks so
Speaker 12: badly of, including me as a Mexican immigrant. So they're like,
Speaker 12: we'd rather read let's be with him. But those numbers,
Speaker 12: they could cause Kamala Harris the election.
Speaker 2: So if you think for yourself and you make your
Speaker 2: own decision to choose Team Red or Team Blue, you're
Speaker 2: a race trader if you choose one over the other.
Speaker 2: This is the definition of racism. But that lady will
Speaker 2: no doubt get invited back onto those TV shows if
Speaker 2: something similar had been said anywhere else, and you'd be saying,
Speaker 2: for what it is disgraceful. Again, if those numbers are
Speaker 2: true and there is a giant uptick in Latino voters,
Speaker 2: then you know Trump's probably going to win. And in fact,
Speaker 2: the very latest opinion polls are actually starting to point
Speaker 2: towards a potential victory. I've spoken a lot about real
Speaker 2: clear politics. Now they do averages of all the different poles,
Speaker 2: and if an election was held today and they said
Speaker 2: the poles were one hundred percent right, then Trump would
Speaker 2: win two eighty one. He needs two seventy to Harris's
Speaker 2: two fifty seven. Now, of course, all of that comes
Speaker 2: down to the state of Pennsylvania, which they say he
Speaker 2: will win. Without it, he would lose according to this map. However,
Speaker 2: the statisticians that we've talked about in the past who've
Speaker 2: had Trump winning say that Harris is a greater chance
Speaker 2: of winning because they think she will win Pennsylvania. In fact,
Speaker 2: they said there's a fifty eight percent chance to forty
Speaker 2: one percent chance of her winning that state.
Speaker 1: So let's get into Pennsylvania. Now, as you know, there's
Speaker 1: seven different.
Speaker 2: States, and I think that in many ways people are
Speaker 2: overly focused, but everyone says that basically.
Speaker 1: You win Pennsylvania, that'll be the whole game.
Speaker 2: So five most recent polls, again, let's have a look
Speaker 2: most recent poles that dropped good for Trump before that tie,
Speaker 2: before that good for Trump, before that real good for Harris,
Speaker 2: before that a tie. However, I went back and I
Speaker 2: had a look today, and I had to look just
Speaker 2: how wrong were the poles these five particular and specific
Speaker 2: polling organizations about the result in two thousand and twenty
Speaker 2: three point one, three point eight, four point eight, Bloomberg
Speaker 2: didn't do them four years ago, and Rasmussen was under
Speaker 2: two percent. So let's imagine that we corrected for all
Speaker 2: of their wrongs. And again this is me just doing
Speaker 2: an exercise. Here, the five most recent polls in Pennsylvania
Speaker 2: would say Harris just Trump a fair bit, Trump by
Speaker 2: a country mile, Harris comfortably, or Trump pretty comfortably.
Speaker 1: But nothing to see here.
Speaker 2: The Poles are always right, apart from the fact that
Speaker 2: they were wrong four years ago, and apart from the
Speaker 2: fact they were wrong four.
Speaker 1: Years before that. But you know, Latino voters just want
Speaker 1: to be white apparently. Goodness, quick break back with more
Speaker 1: plenty to talk about.
Speaker 2: We did begin the debate for the rest of the show,
Speaker 2: looking forward to this plenty to fire up about, including
Speaker 2: will normal people care about a budget deficit or budget surplus?
Speaker 1: That and a whole lot more here on pau Murray Life.
Speaker 2: Thanks for watching this Monday, and again thanks to everyone
Speaker 2: who came and saw us last night in VIC. All right,
Speaker 2: let's get on with it here. Sam Crosby in the
Speaker 2: man cave and doing his best right now. Senator Matt
Speaker 2: Canavan of course, jordanus right now from Rocky. So let's
Speaker 2: get into the polls, all right, where Sam Prime Minister's
Speaker 2: able to say, I've ever lost a news poll. I
Speaker 2: just showed dissatisfaction, right, every income group, every demographic, with
Speaker 2: the exception of eighteen to thirty four war, it's men
Speaker 2: and women.
Speaker 13: Can we can write you know what, I'm going to
Speaker 13: answer your question, but can we can we talk about
Speaker 13: this subject when the polls are going in our favor,
Speaker 13: you know next time they're going okay, can we have this?
Speaker 13: Can we have this conversation again if you want to
Speaker 13: come back after the election, what happens?
Speaker 2: But okay, so today we end up again in this
Speaker 2: scenario where the budget unequivocally good news under conventional political wisdom,
Speaker 2: but they're in a hole. Do you think that the election,
Speaker 2: by its very nature means all of this gets reset
Speaker 2: or does stuff start to get baked in here?
Speaker 13: Look, I take your point budget surpluses. I take a
Speaker 13: point from that to story of budget surpluses look terrible
Speaker 13: when people are genuinely struggling, and I work for a charity.
Speaker 13: I see the struggle literally every single day that I'm
Speaker 13: at work. That said, the one thing that I don't
Speaker 13: think you want to do right now is start going
Speaker 13: and spending and spraying this money all over the economy.
Speaker 2: And I'm not saying a thousand bucks for everyone, billion
Speaker 2: dollars for charity.
Speaker 13: Sure, and you know on behalf of my work. I
Speaker 13: will take it, right, I will take it. But quite seriously,
Speaker 13: you know, right now, the one thing that the government
Speaker 13: is hanging their hopes on is an interest rate cut
Speaker 13: sometime between now and whenever the election is going to be.
Speaker 13: And you're only going to get that by yes, ratcheting
Speaker 13: up large budget surpluses. So yeah, I take the point
Speaker 13: that it is a difficult thing to say to someone
Speaker 13: who's struggling to put food on the table. It's okay,
Speaker 13: we've got a fifteen and that's going to result in
Speaker 13: a lower interest payment and therefore your rent.
Speaker 1: It's a long boat boat to draw.
Speaker 13: But if you think about what's actually driving the pain
Speaker 13: that people are experiencing, it's generally related to interest rates.
Speaker 2: Matt, what does the slices of the slices of the slices,
Speaker 2: either in the poll or certainly that the attempt to say, hey,
Speaker 2: good news today, what does it tell you.
Speaker 14: Well, the election's up for grabs, that's for sure. I
Speaker 14: mean the Liberal National Parties will remain the underdog here.
Speaker 14: We're very rarely does the first term government get defeated.
Speaker 14: Hasn't happened since the Great Depression or o'tanney abbit basically
Speaker 14: did it and got done it at the finish line, correct.
Speaker 14: So it's a.
Speaker 1: Tough slog but it's very very close.
Speaker 14: The Australian people, i think, remain unconvence about the mission,
Speaker 14: the purpose, the lack of a plan from this government.
Speaker 14: It's very tough times. It's tough for everybody, but the
Speaker 14: government really just rests back on slogans, not a real plan.
Speaker 14: Their budget has been marked by massive spending. All economists
Speaker 14: say that, yes, they delivered a surplus, but that's on
Speaker 14: the back of a booming commodity market, bigger terms of
Speaker 14: trade than we had after the GFC, and they've gone
Speaker 14: and spent most of that and that's added to inflationary pressures.
Speaker 14: They've hired thirty thousand public servants, that's an extra seven
Speaker 14: billion dollars in the payroll. They've chucked thirty billion dollars
Speaker 14: at various green hydrogen critical minerals booon doggles. It's just
Speaker 14: not the thing that should be done right now to
Speaker 14: try and rain inflation. All the strains know that they've
Speaker 14: got to tighten their belt right now, and they just
Speaker 14: don't see their government doing the same. So people are
Speaker 14: dissolution and they don't know what's going on.
Speaker 2: But equally so, I mean that I'm pretty sure not
Speaker 2: many barbecue stoppers having a chat about per a per
Speaker 2: capita recession, right. But the reason I show those numbers,
Speaker 2: the reason I talk about what that English bolk was
Speaker 2: saying that it's not about the last most recent inflation number,
Speaker 2: it's about all the additions that come before it that
Speaker 2: basically feel like another brick in a brick in your
Speaker 2: saddle bag constantly, let alone the twelve interest rate rises,
Speaker 2: So okay, one, two comes down when you're still ten
Speaker 2: ten up from where you were before the journey started.
Speaker 2: I think we're in a scenario where we're going to
Speaker 2: end up having a conversation that's going to be held
Speaker 2: among a.
Speaker 1: Certain group of people.
Speaker 2: They're going to say, but look at this, and look
Speaker 2: at that, and look at the stock market. The economy
Speaker 2: is great, But the vast majority of people watching, hearing
Speaker 2: or listening to it are going for who?
Speaker 14: I think you've summarized the government's trap right now. They're
Speaker 14: in a bit of a trap where they do say, look,
Speaker 14: isn't it great? Inflation's shopped by point one of a percent? Rough,
Speaker 14: isn't it great? You know, the economy's ground by point
Speaker 14: three of a percent. Nobody feels that. You know, the
Speaker 14: government's effectively telling you to not believe your lying eyes.
Speaker 14: Your eyes in front of you see the price of
Speaker 14: everything going up in grocery store is much high than
Speaker 14: what CPI prints at most things have got twenty thirty
Speaker 14: percent easy in the last few years, and you stand
Speaker 14: a living going backwards. They see that the government points
Speaker 14: to a surplus today, how great it is? Well, you know,
Speaker 14: if you actually delve into the numbers, and I'm sure
Speaker 14: not many people do this, but get a inkling of
Speaker 14: it that in fact, over the government's fort estimates the
Speaker 14: next four years, they'll rack up on their own estimates
Speaker 14: one hundred and twenty two billion dollars of deficits. They
Speaker 14: could borrow one hundred and twenty two billion dollars extra,
Speaker 14: and they want credit for the thirty five billion of
Speaker 14: surpluses they've meeked out in the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's absurd.
Speaker 14: The budget is massively expansionary right now, and that's adding
Speaker 14: to people's pain.
Speaker 2: So Sam, for the labor people that I hate watching
Speaker 2: us right now, and again, I appreciate it all. So
Speaker 2: I do appreciate it. You've spent a bit of time
Speaker 2: in the States. We'll talk about that in a second.
Speaker 2: But obviously the Democrats are trying to turn around and say,
Speaker 2: don't worry about the full story of the four years.
Speaker 2: Look at where we are today. Where we're slightly the
Speaker 2: fire is not as intense, but of course that collective
Speaker 2: effect is what you have to be confronted by. So
Speaker 2: how are the Democrats saying to somebody who goes, hang on,
Speaker 2: everything costs more than it was, everything is.
Speaker 1: Higher than it was.
Speaker 2: How do they convince them that, again, their lying eyes
Speaker 2: are their lying eyes.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I don't think you're looking at persuasion too much
Speaker 13: in the United States now. Now it's about getting out
Speaker 13: the vote in your areas and suppressing the vote in
Speaker 13: their areas, and that goes the same way for both sides.
Speaker 13: One of the really interesting people that we or groups
Speaker 13: we spend some time with we're doing the advice for
Speaker 13: the Democratic Party, and they were saying, essentially, in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 13: you have run out of air to buy. Every single
Speaker 13: ad is basically Trump Harris, Trump Harris. And so we
Speaker 13: went there. We're in Pennsylvania for a day and we
Speaker 13: copped a feel of this and literally every single ad
Speaker 13: and so it's no one's trying to persuade you about
Speaker 13: a policy merit or anything like that, which is why
Speaker 13: when we look at the news, we're seeing Harris not
Speaker 13: give you any kind of plan and Trump's sort of
Speaker 13: typical crazy ranting.
Speaker 2: Which I have much to say about this a little later.
Speaker 2: But again different in Australia because you don't have to
Speaker 2: do that. Everyone is forced to go and enroll hues,
Speaker 2: meaning that the reality of the.
Speaker 13: Data, well, I mean it means that our elections you
Speaker 13: focus on, you know, negative gearing and the tax treatment
Speaker 13: and investment properties.
Speaker 1: Doesn't the government do great?
Speaker 13: Sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, But we're having these furious
Speaker 13: debates about frankly, relatively minor changes and we're not talking
Speaker 13: about guns and abortion and these things that motivate your
Speaker 13: base to get out to vote, because your base is
Speaker 13: going to.
Speaker 2: Be there yeah, correct, And I don't know what the
Speaker 2: Australian version of MAGA is, but anyway you can send
Speaker 2: me an them. Paul, let's go on news dot com
Speaker 2: dot you quick break back when more what's it like
Speaker 2: to prepare for Baptist?
Speaker 1: You know, it's my favorite sport. I'll tell you about
Speaker 1: that and back to the lads in a month. Now.
Speaker 2: Where we were last night in Springvale on the edges
Speaker 2: of Melbourne is also where some of my favorite people
Speaker 2: go work each and every day and is the Arabus
Speaker 2: Motors board team. Now, I, as you know, absolutely love
Speaker 2: the owners of the company, both at Betty and Daniel,
Speaker 2: and I love the people who work all the way
Speaker 2: from taking care of the tires all the way through
Speaker 2: to Barry Ryan, who was of course the bloke in
Speaker 2: charge of the day to day when it comes to
Speaker 2: the team. We had a chance to have a chat
Speaker 2: about what it's like to prepare for Bathist.
Speaker 4: Preparing for Bathist's always special because it's such a big race,
Speaker 4: it's such an important race and it's such a team
Speaker 4: effort to get a result. So yeah, it's always special
Speaker 4: to make sure that you can tick that box and
Speaker 4: get everything right and if you get everything right at Bathist.
Speaker 4: You've done a really good job and it's the biggest
Speaker 4: race of the year. We take pretty much your whole cars,
Speaker 4: where there's spare parts, if not two cars, whether spare parts,
Speaker 4: so yeah, everything you need to rebuild a car. The
Speaker 4: most important thing they've first that might save the day
Speaker 4: is probably.
Speaker 13: Your attitude.
Speaker 4: Good attitude and that that can save the day, whether
Speaker 4: it's a driver or the crew or whoever's running the car.
Speaker 4: It's just, yeah, just being calm and having good attitude.
Speaker 4: You can't practice Queen calm and just being ready for
Speaker 4: any moment that happens.
Speaker 1: Probably that's the biggest thing. Paul.
Speaker 4: He's not that annoying compared to motorsport journalists that they're annoying.
Speaker 4: He's a professional. You always know when falls around because
Speaker 4: it's a car smoke. He's lingering, and you know, he's
Speaker 4: great to have around. He's always there's a joke there
Speaker 4: and there's a hangar.
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of support too. I love your baths.
Speaker 2: I'm glad we've got a beef in there because often
Speaker 2: that is our conversation. I can't wait to see what
Speaker 2: happens when it comes to about this it's going to
Speaker 2: be awesome. All right, let's continue the chatting here with
Speaker 2: Sam Crossby. I think he's going about this himself. You're
Speaker 2: your plan, you're there all right now. I thought we
Speaker 2: were going to have a political panel or something. Work
Speaker 2: by the racetrack. Yes, imagine what the people want. Imagine
Speaker 2: the man who certainly would be there in spirit is
Speaker 2: not on the goalie. A couple of weeks later, of course,
Speaker 2: has Mat Cannavan. So Matt quickly to what is behind
Speaker 2: you now? The opposition has come out hard against the
Speaker 2: Internet's censorship bill, and quite rightly, I think that this
Speaker 2: thing would be surprised, but we know that the Greens
Speaker 2: would probably love it door, Matt Dave will trade something
Speaker 2: for it. Lamby probably because she said crazy things in
Speaker 2: the past about people like Elon Musk. So despite the
Speaker 2: fact the opposition's coming out hard, there is a path
Speaker 2: through the Parliament.
Speaker 14: Yes, so there's a risk Paul know that about it
Speaker 14: than I think, Just like digital ID a few months ago,
Speaker 14: the government could seek to ram this through with basically
Speaker 14: no or minimal debate. There was no debate on its
Speaker 14: digital ID bill in the Senate. It was an absolutely
Speaker 14: outrage there are a lot of amendments being moved. They
Speaker 14: just had to be voted on block. And the government
Speaker 14: scheduled the Senate inquiry on this bill to come back
Speaker 14: on the Monday of the last sitting week, so there's
Speaker 14: days a few days there before the end of the year.
Speaker 14: They could ram this through again, but people just have
Speaker 14: got to make their voices heard. Submissions closed today, but
Speaker 14: normally inquiries accept late submissions if you want to make
Speaker 14: one under this bill. And as you say, this isn't
Speaker 14: attack on free speech, it's a licensing a censorship. I'd
Speaker 14: just like to quickly point out one thing that does
Speaker 14: get missed a bit. What the government's doing here is
Speaker 14: effectively deputizing social media companies to do the censorship on
Speaker 14: their behalf, to be agents of the government effectively. Keep
Speaker 14: in mind, almost all of those social media companies are
Speaker 14: foreign owned companies. So we're giving the authority to a
Speaker 14: US based company to censor Australians and their own political speech.
Speaker 14: And worst there's a company called TikTok out there. They're
Speaker 14: captured by this Australian goverment is giving license to TikTok
Speaker 14: to a company that does have ties with the Chinese
Speaker 14: Commuist Party to license and censor the speech of Australians.
Speaker 1: It's outrageous.
Speaker 2: Well so much so that remember in the United States,
Speaker 2: because of the connections to China, they want them to
Speaker 2: be severed and sold, otherwise it will be banned. That's
Speaker 2: the Biden position. Okay, actually Trump is on the opposite
Speaker 2: of that particular question.
Speaker 1: But we'll all see where it goes again.
Speaker 2: Just quickly back to the States before we're done, Vance
Speaker 2: Walt's the VP debate?
Speaker 1: Do vps matter?
Speaker 12: Know?
Speaker 2: Does it mean that we know what the media outlet's
Speaker 2: going to be, which is Waltz is like everyone's dad.
Speaker 2: He's not and Vance is the craziest person you've ever seen.
Speaker 1: He's not.
Speaker 2: We know what the media in narrative will be for
Speaker 2: a week. Do you think that that's the inevitability no
Speaker 2: matter what happens out of the debate?
Speaker 13: Sam, Look, I think the inevitability of this is no
Speaker 13: one watches, and those that do have their minds firmly
Speaker 13: made up.
Speaker 1: I don't think watching reserve grade.
Speaker 2: God love you if you do it, but we know
Speaker 2: that you're not the casual fan.
Speaker 13: I don't think it moves the dial in any direction.
Speaker 13: It does, however, give Vance a chance to rehabilitate himself.
Speaker 13: He has not had a good campaign. He came in
Speaker 13: on a high, He's not had a good campaign. He
Speaker 13: you know, his prospects if Trump were to lose, do
Speaker 13: not look good.
Speaker 1: If he can put up a really good.
Speaker 13: Show against Waltz, then you know, maybe he can rehabilitate
Speaker 13: his career after this.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, we know if Harris loses, it's not going
Speaker 2: to be Waltz. We know if Trump loses, well, of course,
Speaker 2: you know, the Maga crown can be placed anywhere else.
Speaker 2: So I want to ask you this one quickly before
Speaker 2: we go, Mack, what's one bit of data or one
Speaker 2: story that is rolling around in the American campaign that
Speaker 2: you think is more important than people are giving it
Speaker 2: credit for, or something people should just hear as part
Speaker 2: of their overall knowledge about what's happening on the other
Speaker 2: side of the world.
Speaker 14: It's kind of what you highlighted before, Paul, and that
Speaker 14: is that the Poles never being better for Trump, like,
Speaker 14: never been better for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: And if you.
Speaker 14: Do correct them for the bias they've had the last
Speaker 14: two election cycles, he's winning by the length of a Strait. Now,
Speaker 14: I don't know, Maybe those poles are corrected their areas.
Speaker 14: Maybe people aren't as shy as coming out as Trump supporters.
Speaker 14: Now I'm not so. It was both election cycles. By
Speaker 14: twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, support for Trump was massively underestimated.
Speaker 14: And when you look at when you drill down and
Speaker 14: look at those polling companies that got it closer to write,
Speaker 14: companies like Atlas Resnusin, they're at the moment pretty strongly
Speaker 14: in favor of Trump. So keep coming back to that
Speaker 14: fact that he's probably the best candidate as his JD.
Speaker 14: Van's his running mate for those Midwestern seats that are
Speaker 14: the crucial areas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see. Give me the year fifteen second version.
Speaker 13: Look, my great worry is what actually happens on polling day,
Speaker 13: especially in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is an open carry state. Tensions
Speaker 13: are really.
Speaker 1: High right now, something's going to happen.
Speaker 13: Well, no, no, no, no, no, absolutely not. But what
Speaker 13: people are talking about election monitors where both campaigns will
Speaker 13: have people walking out the lines and it just gets
Speaker 13: too rough and people will be walking up and down
Speaker 13: the lines in them militia gear. And that's a bit scary.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much to appreciate it.
Speaker 2: On that I I good bought not we'll see you
Speaker 2: again tomorrow or not when Agel Farage is here. And
Speaker 2: as always a light to buy in a couple of minutes.
Speaker 10: Yeah h