WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 30 September

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<v Speaker 1>From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live Hio mate,

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<v Speaker 1>Happy Monday.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you to everyone who joined us in Springvale on

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<v Speaker 2>the outskirts of Melbourne yesterday. So good to see, so

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<v Speaker 2>good to hang out. Had a huge thank you to

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<v Speaker 2>Caylor Bond who is here on Thursday night as I

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<v Speaker 2>spent a bit of time with the family.

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<v Speaker 1>Firstly was my wife's birthday.

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<v Speaker 2>Love your Darlin, but also an opportunity and I know

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<v Speaker 2>you'd get this as parents or grandparents, but it was

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<v Speaker 2>the school performance thing. But they don't really do plays

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<v Speaker 2>and he more certainly not at our school, so every

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<v Speaker 2>single class gets the chance to do a dance. And

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<v Speaker 2>of course my kids were the most awesome. But it

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<v Speaker 2>is just that incredible experience, isn't it. We you get

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<v Speaker 2>to see these little people who you're held in your

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<v Speaker 2>arms standing up there with a big smile and a

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<v Speaker 2>confidence that only comes from challenging yourself. So I hope

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<v Speaker 2>you got the opportunity to see that at some time

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<v Speaker 2>over the weekend with the little ones that you love too.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's get into tonight's show. I want to show

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<v Speaker 2>you a bloke from the UK who's kind of going

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<v Speaker 2>to explain the Australian economy better than I could explain

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<v Speaker 2>parts of it here. We won't be doing it any

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<v Speaker 2>to show you a little bit of what he had

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<v Speaker 2>to say. Of course, I'll talk about the madness of

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<v Speaker 2>the protests, but there's a little detail that you need

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<v Speaker 2>to learn before you have any expectations that something's going

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<v Speaker 2>to happen to these people, and a little preview of

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<v Speaker 2>the next big things happen in the American election, and

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<v Speaker 2>that of course is the vice presidential debate between the

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<v Speaker 2>blokho they want to constantly talk about abortion and the

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<v Speaker 2>other one who wants to pretend he's not going and

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<v Speaker 2>that being the guy on the right of your screen

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<v Speaker 2>to introduce laws as he did as a state governor,

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<v Speaker 2>to take kids away from their parents if they don't

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<v Speaker 2>believe that the kids should transition. But first, as always,

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<v Speaker 2>Australia first, and we try to focus on the number

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<v Speaker 2>one issue that matters now. For those who are invested

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<v Speaker 2>in the stock market, today was a very good day.

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, there was a brand new record high for

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<v Speaker 2>the stock market, So all well and good if you're

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<v Speaker 2>somebody who is day trading or is pulling their money

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<v Speaker 2>out anytime soon and of course, in Camber today, the

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<v Speaker 2>excitement was that the federal government has enough money left

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<v Speaker 2>over to had itself on the back.

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<v Speaker 3>The federal budget is in better shape than anticipated.

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<v Speaker 2>The surplus for the most recent financial year is six

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<v Speaker 2>billion dollars higher than forecast. Australia's finances are looking billions

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<v Speaker 2>of dollars better tonight.

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<v Speaker 4>Treasureer Jim Chalmers says the first back to back budget

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<v Speaker 4>surpluses in almost two decades proves the government has tightened

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<v Speaker 4>its belt.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'll tell you why that's not true in like

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<v Speaker 2>thirty seconds. But first some gloating from Grimjim.

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<v Speaker 5>This is a powerful demonstration of our responsible economic management.

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<v Speaker 5>Responsible economic management is a defining feature of the Albanese

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<v Speaker 5>labor government and it wouldn't have happened without our responsible

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<v Speaker 5>economic management. It wouldn't have happened without our spending restraint.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh wow, wow, as the kids would say, gas lighting

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<v Speaker 2>for the rest of us. Well, let's just start to

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<v Speaker 2>pull apart this garbage now. The reality is that this

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<v Speaker 2>government has been able to post its surpluses because of

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<v Speaker 2>the amount of money that is coming through its front door.

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<v Speaker 2>And guess where the number one source of money for

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<v Speaker 2>this federal government is you and me, those who pay

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<v Speaker 2>their tax by being an employee. In fact, have a

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<v Speaker 2>look at this number here. Treasurer Jim Chalmer's second budget

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<v Speaker 2>has been underwritten by the highest share of personal income

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<v Speaker 2>tax since before the GST was.

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<v Speaker 1>Introduced back in the year two thousand.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's twenty five years of the system that was

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<v Speaker 2>put in place by John Howard and now he reaps

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<v Speaker 2>the most amount. Ever, when it comes to income tax,

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<v Speaker 2>the amount of personal tax paid by Australians boomed by

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<v Speaker 2>an extra one million people who were securing jobs under

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<v Speaker 2>the government and bracket creep.

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<v Speaker 1>You see, remember the two little too low tax cuts.

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<v Speaker 2>Well they still of course had not just those but

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<v Speaker 2>also a whole bunch of people who ended up going

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<v Speaker 2>up a bracket, meaning they were paying more tax, in

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<v Speaker 2>which the norminal income growth causes individuals to pay higher

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<v Speaker 2>average taxation rates each year. Now Australia and its budget

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<v Speaker 2>is a Ponzi scheme because when we were twenty five

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<v Speaker 2>million people, we were of course running in a deficit.

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<v Speaker 2>Now we are the best part of twenty seven million

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<v Speaker 2>people because this government in the past two years I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not counting the other half that they have still had

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<v Speaker 2>responsibility has brought in more than.

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<v Speaker 1>A million people.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, yes, some of these people may be old under

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<v Speaker 2>family reunion, some of them may be young because they're

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<v Speaker 2>the kids of the workers who end up coming in.

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<v Speaker 1>But when they talk about a million brand new jobs.

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<v Speaker 2>Guess who has them the people who have come into

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<v Speaker 2>the country. The net migration number remains one million and

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<v Speaker 2>seventy three thousand, eight hundred people.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's the actual.

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<v Speaker 2>Mats behind what he it's talking. There's about economic restraint.

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<v Speaker 2>It's about bringing in as many people as they physically can,

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<v Speaker 2>hoping that they get a job, hoping that they pay

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<v Speaker 2>tax to plug the holes of the promise spending which

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<v Speaker 2>would otherwise without those million people, have had us in

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<v Speaker 2>a budget deficit. Now, the budget surplus, as you know,

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen point eight billion in twenty three twenty four. It

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<v Speaker 2>is down from the one that was twelve months earlier.

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<v Speaker 2>But have a look at this. Personal income tax topped

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<v Speaker 2>three hundred and thirty one billion dollars, or fifty two

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the federal government's total tax take, so literally

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<v Speaker 2>more than the GST, more than company tax, more than

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<v Speaker 2>half of every dollar the federal government has to peddle

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<v Speaker 2>up against the wall comes from you and me.

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<v Speaker 1>That is the reality.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, I want to show you a graph that was

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<v Speaker 2>in the Financial Review today to help explain this particular phenomena.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, firstly, have a look at the.

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<v Speaker 2>Blue squiggle which is the top there, that shows personal

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<v Speaker 2>income tax. Now the government when the GST was introduced,

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<v Speaker 2>the tax take was forty five and a half percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the total revenue to government. Twenty five years later,

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<v Speaker 2>you may well notice quite and up to since this

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<v Speaker 2>mob took.

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<v Speaker 1>Over fifty two point three percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, a very faint line that I don't expect you

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<v Speaker 2>to see on television, but maybe actually you can see

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<v Speaker 2>it there with the red is the GST, which basically

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<v Speaker 2>has been about the same amount of money in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of the percentage of money that the federal government gets

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<v Speaker 2>each and every year. But the percentage which wildly fell

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<v Speaker 2>when the GST was introduced, has slowly inched right back

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<v Speaker 2>to where.

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<v Speaker 1>We were twenty five years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Where the government is now fifty two point three percent

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<v Speaker 2>of its money coming through its front door is coming

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<v Speaker 2>through its front door as a result of personal income tax.

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<v Speaker 1>And before this treasure returns around.

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<v Speaker 2>And again gives himself a gold star, and how amazing

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<v Speaker 2>aware because two surfaces in a row means the economy

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<v Speaker 2>is amazing. Every bit of spending that we've got is responsible.

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<v Speaker 1>Well.

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<v Speaker 2>The prediction of his own treasury for the next twenty

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<v Speaker 2>something years is that they are about to spend way

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<v Speaker 2>more than even the money they get right now. So

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<v Speaker 2>even though personal income tax is going to be more

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<v Speaker 2>than half of the money that they get. What you

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<v Speaker 2>can see there is every single line after the dotted

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<v Speaker 2>line is an expected deficit. Now they get slightly better

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<v Speaker 2>while we're getting towards the end of the twenty thirties,

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<v Speaker 2>and then fum all the way into the deepest of

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<v Speaker 2>black holes. Now, remember, every one of those deficits ends

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<v Speaker 2>up being added to the previous one, which means the

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<v Speaker 2>trillion dollars in debt fast becomes one point two one

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<v Speaker 2>point five, and eventually we start to march our way

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<v Speaker 2>towards two trillion dollars worth of debt. Because the way

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<v Speaker 2>the whole thing is structured is that unless you have

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<v Speaker 2>a Ponzi scheme of more people coming into jobs and

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<v Speaker 2>more people therefore paying tax, the actual amount of money

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<v Speaker 2>that is already put aside and has locked in every

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<v Speaker 2>federal government still to come into our future, regardless of

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<v Speaker 2>their political position, they have to spend more than last year, more.

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<v Speaker 1>Than the year before, more than the year before, more

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<v Speaker 1>than the year before.

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<v Speaker 2>Certainly as people get older, hence why as workers leave,

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<v Speaker 2>they need to fill the Ponzi scheme for every one

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<v Speaker 2>person who's no longer paying tax you want to replace.

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<v Speaker 2>But because we don't have enough babies in the country,

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<v Speaker 2>or as we showed you last week, there are many, many,

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<v Speaker 2>hundreds of thousands of people who still owe money to

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<v Speaker 2>universities because they have never actually earned the fifty thousand

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<v Speaker 2>dollars to start paying it back. So much so that

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<v Speaker 2>now eighty two before billion dollars is being spent by

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<v Speaker 2>the federal government on higher education but not being paid

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<v Speaker 2>back by its students, let alone this federal government making

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<v Speaker 2>spending decisions that has seen welfare as a percentage of

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<v Speaker 2>the total pie of the budget steadily increase even in

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<v Speaker 2>the two years that they've been able to produce a surplus.

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<v Speaker 2>These are the realities of the economy as it sits now.

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<v Speaker 2>The government wants you to be distracted by today's headline

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<v Speaker 2>about this year's budget. They want you to be distracted

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<v Speaker 2>by what's happening when it comes to the stock market.

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<v Speaker 2>But guess what, there is some data, there is some

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<v Speaker 2>detail that show that it's only the top end of

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<v Speaker 2>town that does okay. The rest of us, well, we

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<v Speaker 2>are struggling. In fact, what does the ABC have in

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<v Speaker 2>common with the Australian newspaper. What does the Australian Institute

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<v Speaker 2>of Company Directors have in common with the left wing

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<v Speaker 2>thing tank the Australia Institute where the Greens get a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of their data from. That Australia is in a

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<v Speaker 2>per capita recession, meaning that while the government will tell

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<v Speaker 2>you that the economy is not in a recession because

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<v Speaker 2>it is ever so slightly growing by zero point one

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<v Speaker 2>or zero point two or zero point three percent, the

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<v Speaker 2>only reason that's happening is because the federal government is

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<v Speaker 2>hiring and state governments are hiring more public servants and

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<v Speaker 2>giving them greater pay rises than the ones that anyone

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<v Speaker 2>in the normal economy would actually be doing. It's also

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<v Speaker 2>because the state governments, thanks to the money they get

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<v Speaker 2>from the federal government, which of course is in part

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<v Speaker 2>and mainly the GST, is turning around and spending a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of money on infrastructure, but they're spending way beyond

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<v Speaker 2>even the money that's coming in, meaning they are borrowing.

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<v Speaker 2>Meaning the collective debt of the States is now in

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<v Speaker 2>line with the federal government, which, as I just showed you,

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<v Speaker 2>is only going to go deeper in the hole from

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<v Speaker 2>now until the twenty sixties. So if your wages have

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<v Speaker 2>not kept up with the inflation that has been roaring

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<v Speaker 2>for the past couple of years, if your wages have

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<v Speaker 2>not kept up with the twelve interest rate rises under

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<v Speaker 2>this government, then you're going backwards. And in fact you

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<v Speaker 2>have been going backwards not a little bit. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>you have been going backwards now for six quarters in

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<v Speaker 2>a row. That is now a scenario where we are

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<v Speaker 2>getting close to two full years of a recession in

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<v Speaker 2>real Australia. Now, despite the fact that let's show that

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<v Speaker 2>number again, a million people have been added to the

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<v Speaker 2>overall population, meaning that a million people are now paying

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<v Speaker 2>more tax to the government. That is now of all

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<v Speaker 2>of the money it gets getting more money from indo

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<v Speaker 2>dual taxpayers than it is anything else. This is hiding

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<v Speaker 2>the reality of the Australian economy. It's not about the

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<v Speaker 2>headlines they can tell you in canber. It's about what

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<v Speaker 2>is actually happening in real Australia and believe it or not,

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<v Speaker 2>an economics reporter on the ABC will help point this out.

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<v Speaker 3>GDP is actually a pretty blunt kind of measure when

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<v Speaker 3>it comes to economic performance. All it does is measure

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<v Speaker 3>the amount of staff that we produce and consume. So

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<v Speaker 3>you know, there's an argument that it's a dumb way

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<v Speaker 3>to keep yourself out of recession simply by adding more

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<v Speaker 3>people into the economy, because it's not a real reflection

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<v Speaker 3>of your economic performance. So if you trip that out,

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<v Speaker 3>we're gone backwards for six consecutive quarters, which is not

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<v Speaker 3>a great performance for the economy.

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<v Speaker 2>And the other thing and why I don't think that

0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:51.200
<v Speaker 2>Australians are going to be moved to think more warmly

0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:53.160
<v Speaker 2>about the federal government because of what may or may

0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:56.080
<v Speaker 2>not be happening with the federal budget is, as we

0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:59.079
<v Speaker 2>told you last night, there are more people than ever

0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.600
<v Speaker 2>before who need to to a charity to find something

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:05.719
<v Speaker 2>to eat for themselves or their families. We know that

0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:09.440
<v Speaker 2>people are going without food for themselves for their kids.

0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 2>In fact, we spoke to the bloke from Turbans for

0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 2>Australia last night on our ourtound show that was in

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:17.079
<v Speaker 2>Melbourne about how many.

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.640
<v Speaker 1>People need help from his organization.

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:23.160
<v Speaker 6>Young couples working full time, a part time or even

0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:26.720
<v Speaker 6>two jobs. You put food on the table to average

0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.599
<v Speaker 6>pensioners and homeless people and others. So everyone in the

0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:31.720
<v Speaker 6>society is suffering at the moment due to this rising

0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:32.319
<v Speaker 6>cost of living.

0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 2>So despite the fact that the federal budget now has

0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.280
<v Speaker 2>more money than they intended to spend, meaning they have

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 2>billions of dollars left over, there is no plan to

0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.160
<v Speaker 2>give the charities that are taking care of the people

0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:50.079
<v Speaker 2>at the absolute bottom of our economy are sent more,

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 2>let alone any further changes for you or I the

0:13:54.840 --> 0:14:00.040
<v Speaker 2>actual engine room of the Australian budget, any changes to

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.280
<v Speaker 2>help you or I when it comes to cost of living,

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:08.040
<v Speaker 2>which means that people like Jackie Lamby quite correctly say

0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.439
<v Speaker 2>I don't care what your budget number is. The reality

0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 2>is that when Australians are hurting, you are missing.

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.520
<v Speaker 7>Nobody gives us stuff about a surplus. Mate, I can

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 7>assure you right now, people are doing it hard out there.

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 7>Nobody's talking about a surplus. And if they were, and

0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.200
<v Speaker 7>they truly understood to be saying, well, how about you

0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:27.960
<v Speaker 7>put some of that surplus out to us so we

0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:29.760
<v Speaker 7>can put bread and milk on the table for our

0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:33.840
<v Speaker 7>kids and do that without without raising the inflation. You know,

0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:38.960
<v Speaker 7>surely with a surplus, people are really hurting out their caual. Honestly,

0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:39.800
<v Speaker 7>give them more.

0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:41.320
<v Speaker 1>Find a way to do it.

0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:45.120
<v Speaker 2>Principally and most importantly is that I don't want to

0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 2>muck around when it comes to the inflation numbers. And

0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:48.400
<v Speaker 2>they're going to say, well, if we sent people checks

0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.960
<v Speaker 2>that had caused trouble, why not crack off a billion

0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.320
<v Speaker 2>dollars of the money that you have now been able

0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 2>to see said that you have nowhere else to spend

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 2>in the economy, and spend a billion dollars of that

0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.080
<v Speaker 2>extra money and give it to the charities of Australia

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.240
<v Speaker 2>as a one off payment to help people who are

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 2>in trouble today. Another reason why there won't be a

0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.680
<v Speaker 2>political bounce out of the government telling you how amazing

0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:16.680
<v Speaker 2>their economic responsibility is because again we're not living in

0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:17.360
<v Speaker 2>that world.

0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:22.320
<v Speaker 1>As you know, the cost of living crisis leads.

0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.960
<v Speaker 2>To many lies that come out of the Prime Minister

0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 2>and the Treasurer. Now, despite the fact that friendly media

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.560
<v Speaker 2>will turn around and say that because the inflation rate

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 2>is now the best it's been in a couple of

0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:36.800
<v Speaker 2>years time that literally they posted this was Channel nine

0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:41.040
<v Speaker 2>mission accomplished. But mission accomplished when it comes to inflation

0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 2>is just as fake as George W. Bush saying mission

0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.640
<v Speaker 2>was accomplished in Iraq, a war that kept going for

0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:51.640
<v Speaker 2>the best part of ten more years. And let me explain,

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 2>in fact, I won't explain an economics report from Sky

0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:59.880
<v Speaker 2>News in the UK. He explains beautifully why the headline

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:02.560
<v Speaker 2>number that gets all of the politicians excited to say

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.040
<v Speaker 2>we've got a two in front of it, and the

0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:07.840
<v Speaker 2>media who wants to move on from this story because

0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:11.520
<v Speaker 2>they're bored with it, is not felt by you and I.

0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:14.800
<v Speaker 2>In fact, you see it's not just about the last

0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 2>number they reported.

0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:18.320
<v Speaker 1>He'll explain better than I can.

0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:21.840
<v Speaker 8>That's the cost of living crisis. Suddenly we went up

0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.640
<v Speaker 8>from prices being around there to prices being there and

0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 8>you don't really see that in this data, okay, because

0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:31.440
<v Speaker 8>inflation is really just measuring the difference between that and that.

0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:34.280
<v Speaker 8>And if you look at those two lines, you're talking

0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.520
<v Speaker 8>about a two point three percent change. That's the number

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:39.160
<v Speaker 8>we're talking about today. But for a lot of people

0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:41.360
<v Speaker 8>it's not about that. It's about the difference between this

0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:44.080
<v Speaker 8>and that. And when you look at the difference between

0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.360
<v Speaker 8>this and that, that's twenty percent.

0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:49.840
<v Speaker 1>See that's the point.

0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:55.080
<v Speaker 2>The two from this quarter is added to the two

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.320
<v Speaker 2>from the previous to the four before you get the point.

0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:02.720
<v Speaker 2>This is the Australia version of that graph. Now the

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:04.760
<v Speaker 2>government would want you to say, well, hang on, it's

0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:08.119
<v Speaker 2>gone up and now it's coming back down. No, every

0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:11.720
<v Speaker 2>little one of these points, of course, you add together.

0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:16.000
<v Speaker 2>So even though the numbers going up, so say again,

0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.080
<v Speaker 2>I'm just going to make it easy to understand. They

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:21.159
<v Speaker 2>might be threes or fours, and the very top is five,

0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:25.639
<v Speaker 2>and then five becomes four, becomes three, becomes two. You

0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:30.880
<v Speaker 2>add it all together, and prices are way higher than

0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:35.600
<v Speaker 2>they were in twenty and twenty, where yes there was

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:38.400
<v Speaker 2>a pandemic. But more importantly, let's compare it to prices

0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:43.400
<v Speaker 2>in two thousand and nineteen or even twenty and twenty one.

0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:45.680
<v Speaker 1>If you started that journey.

0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:49.280
<v Speaker 2>When it comes to twenty and twenty one to today,

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.000
<v Speaker 2>all of that looks like it goes up and it

0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.440
<v Speaker 2>comes down, but it's actually one on top of the other,

0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:58.520
<v Speaker 2>on top of the other, on top of the other,

0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:02.000
<v Speaker 2>on top of the other, which is why the government

0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:05.080
<v Speaker 2>gets no credit from those of us who are in

0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 2>the real world who may not be playing the stock

0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 2>market like people did today. The people who don't have

0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:18.120
<v Speaker 2>a business that means they can pay a top marginal

0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:20.960
<v Speaker 2>tax rate of the company tax rate. Instead they work

0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:24.320
<v Speaker 2>for a business, meaning that depending on how much you earn,

0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:27.960
<v Speaker 2>that's how much tax they take on top of that.

0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:33.240
<v Speaker 2>Of course, there are millions of Australians whose superannuation is

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:38.560
<v Speaker 2>taken out of their wages. It's not their wages and superannuation,

0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:43.159
<v Speaker 2>you see. That's the scenario for everyone in the government sector,

0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:46.119
<v Speaker 2>but for everyone in the private sector. A very significant

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.040
<v Speaker 2>number of people have all the money they earn and

0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:52.960
<v Speaker 2>then the government takes some for your retirement. This government

0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 2>has got legislation which means they take more, meaning you

0:18:56.600 --> 0:19:00.040
<v Speaker 2>are about to continue to get under this government, a

0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 2>real decline in the amount of money that you get

0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:05.920
<v Speaker 2>every fortnight or every month that you then have to

0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:08.480
<v Speaker 2>turn around and use that money to pay for things

0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:11.040
<v Speaker 2>that cost way more than they did before they became

0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:15.560
<v Speaker 2>the government, or try and pay off a house that's

0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:21.280
<v Speaker 2>gone up twelve times in interest rates. So I don't

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.959
<v Speaker 2>care what the Camber Gallery says about what happened today.

0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:27.840
<v Speaker 2>In the real world, it's hurting as bad as it

0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:33.000
<v Speaker 2>ever has which brings us to the opinion polls today

0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:35.080
<v Speaker 2>and Newspoles started to break down some of the numbers

0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:37.280
<v Speaker 2>that they have been looking out over the past few months.

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:39.600
<v Speaker 2>They were able to do so state by state. They

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:41.240
<v Speaker 2>were able to start to break down things by it

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.280
<v Speaker 2>by gender and even the amount of money that people

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.080
<v Speaker 2>earn to see what their perception was of the government.

0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.840
<v Speaker 2>The headline wasn't amazing. In fact, it's not good news

0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:52.199
<v Speaker 2>at all when it comes to the Labor Party. But

0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:55.600
<v Speaker 2>it is really bad news for Anthony Albernezi, who remember

0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:58.080
<v Speaker 2>has said I've never lost a news poll. Or I'm

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:01.680
<v Speaker 2>about to show him how he losing a news poll.

0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:04.680
<v Speaker 2>You see, if you only go by the two party preferred,

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:07.639
<v Speaker 2>it's never got worse than fifty to fifty. But if

0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:10.840
<v Speaker 2>you go by the amount of votes they got when

0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:13.119
<v Speaker 2>there was an election versus the amount of votes that

0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:16.399
<v Speaker 2>are on the table today, a fall of three and

0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 2>a half percent in New South Wales would result in

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:23.800
<v Speaker 2>multiple seats disappearing from the Labor column. An almost two

0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:26.840
<v Speaker 2>percent drop would do the same in Victoria. They're so

0:20:26.960 --> 0:20:29.600
<v Speaker 2>far behind in Queensland that they might be able to

0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:33.240
<v Speaker 2>fend off the Greens perhaps, but they're unlikely to win

0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 2>any further seats. They may well again be able to

0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:40.960
<v Speaker 2>hold off in places like South Australia, and interestingly, the

0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:43.640
<v Speaker 2>assumption was that some seats could be disappearing in Western Australia,

0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 2>but at this moment there is no change in the

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:46.560
<v Speaker 2>primary vote.

0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Now.

0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:50.240
<v Speaker 2>Of course, thirty six is way below the fifty point

0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:54.560
<v Speaker 2>one you need to actually win a seat, so preferences matter.

0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:56.919
<v Speaker 2>If you say, buger them all, you're going to get

0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.680
<v Speaker 2>a labor government. If you decide to put a party

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:03.440
<v Speaker 2>of government that you wish to be the government, as

0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:05.880
<v Speaker 2>you're number two, then you will get something other than

0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:07.640
<v Speaker 2>a labor government.

0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:10.399
<v Speaker 1>But again the Prime.

0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:13.640
<v Speaker 2>Minister himself, the Prime Minister, of course, says I've never

0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.560
<v Speaker 2>lost a newspole. Well guess what, Pal, You are now

0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:20.679
<v Speaker 2>losing newspoll in every state. In fact, if you have

0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:23.919
<v Speaker 2>a look here, the dark red or marone is the

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.320
<v Speaker 2>number of people that are satisfied with the Prime minister.

0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:29.879
<v Speaker 2>The sort of orange are those who are unsatisfied or

0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:34.200
<v Speaker 2>dissatisfied with the Prime Minister and those that are uncommitted

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:39.160
<v Speaker 2>as the gray. You can see that nationally, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland,

0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:43.560
<v Speaker 2>South Australia and Western Australia all are in negative territory

0:21:43.560 --> 0:21:49.359
<v Speaker 2>for the Prime Minister. In fact, nationally, fifty two percent

0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:53.119
<v Speaker 2>of people are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister. Break it

0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:54.800
<v Speaker 2>down by state and you have the same number in

0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:59.639
<v Speaker 2>New South Wales, half of Victoria, fifty six percent of

0:21:59.680 --> 0:22:04.000
<v Speaker 2>people in Queensland, fifty four percent of people in South Australia,

0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:07.159
<v Speaker 2>fifty two percent of people in Western Australia.

0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:10.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, what about by age, surely it's just the oldies.

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:17.359
<v Speaker 2>No, All bar eighteen to thirty four dissatisfied out rank

0:22:17.400 --> 0:22:22.880
<v Speaker 2>satisfied with middle aged people from thirty five to forty nine,

0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:26.399
<v Speaker 2>from fifty to sixty four, and people whom hopefully have

0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:29.879
<v Speaker 2>been able to retire on their own terms at sixty

0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 2>five plus. You can see the middle column, which is dissatisfied,

0:22:33.960 --> 0:22:36.760
<v Speaker 2>grows the older you get, because the older you get,

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:39.560
<v Speaker 2>the wiser you get. Okay, Well, maybe it's just sort

0:22:39.560 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 2>of okay, it's a whole bunch of self funded, retire

0:22:41.600 --> 0:22:45.000
<v Speaker 2>re rich people. That's a problem too. Remember how this

0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:47.920
<v Speaker 2>government is totally focused on cost of delivery. Well, people

0:22:47.920 --> 0:22:52.159
<v Speaker 2>who weren't between zero and fifty thousand dollars majority are

0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:56.040
<v Speaker 2>dissatisfied with the Prime minister. Between fifty and ninety nine

0:22:56.280 --> 0:22:59.239
<v Speaker 2>they are majority dissatisfied with the Prime minister. People who

0:22:59.240 --> 0:23:01.320
<v Speaker 2>went over one hundred to one hundred and fifty are

0:23:01.720 --> 0:23:03.199
<v Speaker 2>dissatisfied with the Prime minister.

0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:06.080
<v Speaker 1>And one hundred and fifty grand it's what you earn.

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:10.200
<v Speaker 2>And remember all of those groups represent more than half

0:23:10.320 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 2>of all of the federal government money that they get

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:14.960
<v Speaker 2>when it comes to all of the taxes. So companies

0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:19.240
<v Speaker 2>aren't paying it. People are paying it. Companies are paying

0:23:19.240 --> 0:23:21.760
<v Speaker 2>their fair share. The GST is doing what it does,

0:23:22.520 --> 0:23:27.520
<v Speaker 2>but in terms of the total pie, it's growing, as

0:23:27.560 --> 0:23:29.880
<v Speaker 2>are the costs, as are the pressure.

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:31.719
<v Speaker 1>Which is why I talk about it every night.

0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:34.000
<v Speaker 2>While we focus on it all the time while others

0:23:34.040 --> 0:23:35.879
<v Speaker 2>may come and go and sort of, you know, pretend

0:23:35.920 --> 0:23:39.199
<v Speaker 2>they will be. We're on it every night because we

0:23:39.240 --> 0:23:41.560
<v Speaker 2>know how nervous people are. So maybe it's just a

0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:45.960
<v Speaker 2>bloke thing. Maybe it's just a bloke's earning any money

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:48.080
<v Speaker 2>because remember it's the Liberal Party that has the problem

0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:52.000
<v Speaker 2>with women. Well that's a problem too, you see, both

0:23:52.080 --> 0:23:55.040
<v Speaker 2>men and women are dissatisfied with the job that the

0:23:55.080 --> 0:23:56.320
<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister is doing.

0:23:57.640 --> 0:23:58.960
<v Speaker 1>So as my colleague Andrew.

0:23:58.760 --> 0:24:01.440
<v Speaker 2>Clenell was doing the today to try to find out

0:24:01.440 --> 0:24:03.919
<v Speaker 2>what Labour insiders, we're thinking about the polls that showed

0:24:04.440 --> 0:24:10.440
<v Speaker 2>every gender, every income bracket and all bar the youngest

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:13.720
<v Speaker 2>of voters have turned on the Prime minister. What would

0:24:13.760 --> 0:24:18.000
<v Speaker 2>that mean for his current slender majority government.

0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:22.160
<v Speaker 9>Well, a Labour source has told me that right now

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:26.040
<v Speaker 9>they're behind in four marginal seats in New South Wales.

0:24:26.160 --> 0:24:27.480
<v Speaker 1>Let's have a look at them.

0:24:28.200 --> 0:24:32.240
<v Speaker 9>This is where Labor I am told and then along

0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:35.280
<v Speaker 9>that that's after redistributions and margins, right, so that's why

0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:39.520
<v Speaker 9>it's called liberal there Gilmore in the South coast, Robertson

0:24:39.600 --> 0:24:42.840
<v Speaker 9>on the central coast, Patterson in the Hunter and Banalong

0:24:43.000 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 9>in Sydney. My source tells me as things stand, Labor

0:24:47.440 --> 0:24:49.760
<v Speaker 9>are behind in these key seats.

0:24:50.920 --> 0:24:53.920
<v Speaker 2>So after the election it was seventy seven seats. After

0:24:53.920 --> 0:24:56.080
<v Speaker 2>the by election it was seventy eight seats. They lose

0:24:56.119 --> 0:24:58.080
<v Speaker 2>those four we are down to seventy four and we're

0:24:58.119 --> 0:25:00.480
<v Speaker 2>off to a minority government. And we have and even

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:03.400
<v Speaker 2>crossed the Murray River or gone north.

0:25:03.200 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 1>Of the tweed.

0:25:05.960 --> 0:25:08.560
<v Speaker 2>As for the idiocy that we have seen on our

0:25:08.600 --> 0:25:10.879
<v Speaker 2>streets over the past couple of days, I agree with

0:25:10.920 --> 0:25:13.560
<v Speaker 2>everything that's been said by all of my colleagues who

0:25:13.600 --> 0:25:19.359
<v Speaker 2>have with great articulation and passion spoken obviously about the

0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:21.760
<v Speaker 2>madness of people who are amongst us who would be

0:25:22.040 --> 0:25:26.879
<v Speaker 2>celebrating the death of a terrorist. Now, as you know,

0:25:27.800 --> 0:25:30.600
<v Speaker 2>politicians have decided that this is the line in the

0:25:30.640 --> 0:25:34.320
<v Speaker 2>sand where apparently these are the people who must be

0:25:34.400 --> 0:25:38.320
<v Speaker 2>brought into line for supporting the wrong side of the fight.

0:25:39.720 --> 0:25:42.320
<v Speaker 10>It's time for the Prime Minister, the Home Affairs Minister,

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:45.800
<v Speaker 10>the Attorney General to make very clear the community's expectations

0:25:45.840 --> 0:25:48.679
<v Speaker 10>to the police, but the law be enforced, that people

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:52.240
<v Speaker 10>be charged, that there be consequences for this abhorrent behavior.

0:25:52.359 --> 0:25:56.560
<v Speaker 5>This has been a failure of leadership from the Prime

0:25:56.560 --> 0:25:58.159
<v Speaker 5>Minister from the word go.

0:25:58.520 --> 0:26:01.879
<v Speaker 11>If we've got people here who think that that organization

0:26:02.119 --> 0:26:06.400
<v Speaker 11>is okay and they're saddened by the death of this terrorist,

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 11>if they're on a visa, they should be deported.

0:26:10.160 --> 0:26:11.440
<v Speaker 2>My apologies, So I thought there'd be a couple of

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:14.080
<v Speaker 2>labor ones in there. Obviously, the opposition's been very strong

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:16.240
<v Speaker 2>for the best part of the past twelve months about

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:18.600
<v Speaker 2>this stuff, and well and truly before. But as for

0:26:18.640 --> 0:26:20.760
<v Speaker 2>the government, Tony Burke, who of.

0:26:20.680 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 1>Course we all know why he says. What he says

0:26:22.920 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 1>is saying.

0:26:23.320 --> 0:26:27.600
<v Speaker 2>That anyone who's responsible for holding a Hesbalah flag or

0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:31.760
<v Speaker 2>celebrating the passing of a terrorist leader, I will cancel

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:37.440
<v Speaker 2>their visas we can. I make a grand prediction. I

0:26:37.480 --> 0:26:42.720
<v Speaker 2>think the extreme majority of people who would technically fall

0:26:42.760 --> 0:26:46.639
<v Speaker 2>into that category were born here. You see, the reality

0:26:46.880 --> 0:26:50.200
<v Speaker 2>is that the extreme majority of people who are being

0:26:50.320 --> 0:26:55.720
<v Speaker 2>charged with terror offenses in Australia were born in Australia.

0:26:56.640 --> 0:26:59.480
<v Speaker 2>They should be the people who are the beneficiaries of

0:26:59.560 --> 0:27:04.040
<v Speaker 2>the great ulticultural society. That meant that they felt loved

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:07.200
<v Speaker 2>by this country, understood and accepted by this country, because

0:27:07.240 --> 0:27:09.560
<v Speaker 2>of course it was their parents or maybe grandparents who

0:27:09.640 --> 0:27:12.720
<v Speaker 2>came to the country. Yet something is wrong when the

0:27:12.720 --> 0:27:17.080
<v Speaker 2>people born in this country would gladly turn on this

0:27:17.200 --> 0:27:21.960
<v Speaker 2>country in favor of people who would go after this country.

0:27:22.720 --> 0:27:25.800
<v Speaker 2>So forget all the visa business. So let's imagine the

0:27:26.000 --> 0:27:29.159
<v Speaker 2>state laws that are in place would be the ones

0:27:29.280 --> 0:27:32.879
<v Speaker 2>that the Australian Federal Police would be using potentially to

0:27:32.960 --> 0:27:35.880
<v Speaker 2>go after people for holding up terrorist symbols.

0:27:35.920 --> 0:27:37.200
<v Speaker 1>Now, when these laws were all.

0:27:37.119 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 2>Past a couple of years ago, this was all about,

0:27:39.280 --> 0:27:43.080
<v Speaker 2>generally speaking, banning things like swastikas, right, and banning things

0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:47.000
<v Speaker 2>like the Nazi salute. Because HESBLA is a terrorist organization

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 2>recognized as in this country. As such, any sort of

0:27:50.800 --> 0:27:54.000
<v Speaker 2>paraphernalia in favor of them would be in the exact

0:27:54.040 --> 0:27:57.000
<v Speaker 2>same box. But again, if you think that there's about

0:27:57.040 --> 0:27:58.880
<v Speaker 2>to be a whole collection of arrests and a whole

0:27:58.880 --> 0:28:02.720
<v Speaker 2>collection of books being thrown at this people, again, I'm

0:28:02.760 --> 0:28:05.000
<v Speaker 2>sorry to say that the system talks one way but

0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:09.800
<v Speaker 2>walks almost in the direct opposite reaction. In fact, despite

0:28:09.800 --> 0:28:11.800
<v Speaker 2>the fact that the Federal Police have said that at

0:28:11.880 --> 0:28:16.119
<v Speaker 2>least six people, wow, six people may well end up

0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:17.720
<v Speaker 2>on the wrong side of the law.

0:28:19.400 --> 0:28:20.720
<v Speaker 1>In a statement earlier.

0:28:20.520 --> 0:28:23.720
<v Speaker 2>Today, the Federal Police said that displaying ophibrited flag in

0:28:23.760 --> 0:28:27.159
<v Speaker 2>isolation was not enough to charge an individual with a

0:28:27.280 --> 0:28:30.800
<v Speaker 2>terrorist offense. So many of these people may not end

0:28:30.880 --> 0:28:32.840
<v Speaker 2>up anywhere near terrorist charges.

0:28:33.119 --> 0:28:34.360
<v Speaker 1>So again we go back to.

0:28:34.280 --> 0:28:39.680
<v Speaker 2>The state laws where the banned symbols like the terrorist

0:28:39.720 --> 0:28:43.920
<v Speaker 2>flag would end up being what you're going to cop. Well,

0:28:43.960 --> 0:28:48.360
<v Speaker 2>guess what, there is no minimum sentence for these fines.

0:28:48.400 --> 0:28:52.400
<v Speaker 2>There is only a maximum. The maximum fine in Victorious

0:28:52.400 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 2>twenty two thousand dollars. The maximum jail term is twelve months.

0:28:56.560 --> 0:29:01.640
<v Speaker 2>The maximum fine in usipios is dollars or fifty five thousand.

0:29:01.320 --> 0:29:03.760
<v Speaker 1>Dollars for a corporation, or the.

0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:09.080
<v Speaker 2>Maximum is twelve months. So let's imagine the police, who

0:29:09.160 --> 0:29:12.160
<v Speaker 2>of course have done very little, if not bugger all,

0:29:12.640 --> 0:29:14.719
<v Speaker 2>to go after the people who protested in the way

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:19.000
<v Speaker 2>they did immediately after October the seventh. Well, they finally

0:29:19.080 --> 0:29:21.320
<v Speaker 2>find people because they go through the footage and then

0:29:21.320 --> 0:29:23.400
<v Speaker 2>they decide they're going to hand this to the Department

0:29:23.400 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 2>of Prosecution Public Prosecutions, who will then decide whether they

0:29:26.360 --> 0:29:28.400
<v Speaker 2>do or don't charge. Well, then they'll of course get

0:29:28.400 --> 0:29:32.400
<v Speaker 2>in front of judges and magistrates who could send them

0:29:32.440 --> 0:29:36.960
<v Speaker 2>to jail for twelve months or not, or find them

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:43.880
<v Speaker 2>fifty five thousand dollars or not. Now let's turn our

0:29:43.920 --> 0:29:45.760
<v Speaker 2>attention to the United States and what's been happening there.

0:29:45.760 --> 0:29:48.120
<v Speaker 2>Of course, the countdown to the election. We will be

0:29:48.160 --> 0:29:50.200
<v Speaker 2>in the United States for the election, but I've got

0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:52.600
<v Speaker 2>some interesting data for you tonight to give you a

0:29:52.600 --> 0:29:55.960
<v Speaker 2>little bit of a greater picture about whom is actually

0:29:56.040 --> 0:30:00.320
<v Speaker 2>winning right now. So there was an opinion poll which

0:30:00.360 --> 0:30:05.719
<v Speaker 2>is showing that Latino voters or LATINX or LATINX, depending

0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:06.640
<v Speaker 2>on how lefty you.

0:30:06.680 --> 0:30:07.720
<v Speaker 1>Are, guess what.

0:30:08.280 --> 0:30:11.760
<v Speaker 2>The Democrats in twenty twelve had sixty five percent of

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:16.640
<v Speaker 2>Latino voters. Hillary Clinton had sixty nine percent, Joe Biden

0:30:16.720 --> 0:30:20.640
<v Speaker 2>had sixty three percent, and Kamala Harris has fifty four percent.

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:25.120
<v Speaker 2>When Trump first ran, it was nineteen percent, then it

0:30:25.200 --> 0:30:28.400
<v Speaker 2>was twenty seven percent, and now it's forty percent.

0:30:28.880 --> 0:30:30.240
<v Speaker 1>Latino voters, of course, make.

0:30:30.160 --> 0:30:35.480
<v Speaker 2>Up millions of voters all over the country. And even

0:30:35.560 --> 0:30:37.880
<v Speaker 2>when this polling, which came from the left wing news

0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:42.920
<v Speaker 2>organization NBC, was being discussed on the airwaves of NBC,

0:30:43.960 --> 0:30:46.960
<v Speaker 2>one of the commentators who doesn't like people thinking for

0:30:47.040 --> 0:30:50.440
<v Speaker 2>themselves and not just voting as one ethnic group all

0:30:50.480 --> 0:30:54.200
<v Speaker 2>the same all the time, will got racist about it.

0:30:55.640 --> 0:30:59.800
<v Speaker 12>Latinos want to be wait, they want to be with

0:30:59.840 --> 0:31:02.560
<v Speaker 12>the cool kids. They want to be I mean asking

0:31:02.600 --> 0:31:05.080
<v Speaker 12>Latinos all the time and they just say, well, if

0:31:05.080 --> 0:31:07.920
<v Speaker 12>a Donald Trump is done when he was leane, he's

0:31:07.960 --> 0:31:11.080
<v Speaker 12>such a good businessman, It's like, no, he's not. He

0:31:11.120 --> 0:31:14.720
<v Speaker 12>had bankruptcies. But they don't want to be identified with

0:31:14.880 --> 0:31:18.120
<v Speaker 12>all of those other immigrants that Donald Trump speaks so

0:31:18.160 --> 0:31:21.479
<v Speaker 12>badly of, including me as a Mexican immigrant. So they're like,

0:31:21.760 --> 0:31:25.320
<v Speaker 12>we'd rather read let's be with him. But those numbers,

0:31:26.120 --> 0:31:28.280
<v Speaker 12>they could cause Kamala Harris the election.

0:31:29.720 --> 0:31:31.959
<v Speaker 2>So if you think for yourself and you make your

0:31:31.960 --> 0:31:36.080
<v Speaker 2>own decision to choose Team Red or Team Blue, you're

0:31:36.080 --> 0:31:38.520
<v Speaker 2>a race trader if you choose one over the other.

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:42.320
<v Speaker 2>This is the definition of racism. But that lady will

0:31:42.360 --> 0:31:45.400
<v Speaker 2>no doubt get invited back onto those TV shows if

0:31:45.440 --> 0:31:47.920
<v Speaker 2>something similar had been said anywhere else, and you'd be saying,

0:31:47.920 --> 0:31:52.280
<v Speaker 2>for what it is disgraceful. Again, if those numbers are

0:31:52.320 --> 0:31:55.400
<v Speaker 2>true and there is a giant uptick in Latino voters,

0:31:55.480 --> 0:31:58.400
<v Speaker 2>then you know Trump's probably going to win. And in fact,

0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 2>the very latest opinion polls are actually starting to point

0:32:02.200 --> 0:32:05.320
<v Speaker 2>towards a potential victory. I've spoken a lot about real

0:32:05.520 --> 0:32:08.960
<v Speaker 2>clear politics. Now they do averages of all the different poles,

0:32:09.600 --> 0:32:12.160
<v Speaker 2>and if an election was held today and they said

0:32:12.160 --> 0:32:14.400
<v Speaker 2>the poles were one hundred percent right, then Trump would

0:32:14.440 --> 0:32:17.600
<v Speaker 2>win two eighty one. He needs two seventy to Harris's

0:32:17.640 --> 0:32:20.240
<v Speaker 2>two fifty seven. Now, of course, all of that comes

0:32:20.280 --> 0:32:22.800
<v Speaker 2>down to the state of Pennsylvania, which they say he

0:32:22.880 --> 0:32:27.000
<v Speaker 2>will win. Without it, he would lose according to this map. However,

0:32:27.080 --> 0:32:29.360
<v Speaker 2>the statisticians that we've talked about in the past who've

0:32:29.360 --> 0:32:32.920
<v Speaker 2>had Trump winning say that Harris is a greater chance

0:32:32.960 --> 0:32:36.240
<v Speaker 2>of winning because they think she will win Pennsylvania. In fact,

0:32:36.400 --> 0:32:38.560
<v Speaker 2>they said there's a fifty eight percent chance to forty

0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:41.160
<v Speaker 2>one percent chance of her winning that state.

0:32:41.560 --> 0:32:44.480
<v Speaker 1>So let's get into Pennsylvania. Now, as you know, there's

0:32:44.480 --> 0:32:45.280
<v Speaker 1>seven different.

0:32:44.960 --> 0:32:46.920
<v Speaker 2>States, and I think that in many ways people are

0:32:46.920 --> 0:32:49.200
<v Speaker 2>overly focused, but everyone says that basically.

0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:50.720
<v Speaker 1>You win Pennsylvania, that'll be the whole game.

0:32:51.000 --> 0:32:53.960
<v Speaker 2>So five most recent polls, again, let's have a look

0:32:54.120 --> 0:32:57.440
<v Speaker 2>most recent poles that dropped good for Trump before that tie,

0:32:57.920 --> 0:33:00.720
<v Speaker 2>before that good for Trump, before that real good for Harris,

0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:04.240
<v Speaker 2>before that a tie. However, I went back and I

0:33:04.280 --> 0:33:05.640
<v Speaker 2>had a look today, and I had to look just

0:33:05.680 --> 0:33:09.640
<v Speaker 2>how wrong were the poles these five particular and specific

0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:13.880
<v Speaker 2>polling organizations about the result in two thousand and twenty

0:33:14.720 --> 0:33:19.000
<v Speaker 2>three point one, three point eight, four point eight, Bloomberg

0:33:19.040 --> 0:33:21.840
<v Speaker 2>didn't do them four years ago, and Rasmussen was under

0:33:21.880 --> 0:33:26.640
<v Speaker 2>two percent. So let's imagine that we corrected for all

0:33:26.680 --> 0:33:28.720
<v Speaker 2>of their wrongs. And again this is me just doing

0:33:28.760 --> 0:33:32.920
<v Speaker 2>an exercise. Here, the five most recent polls in Pennsylvania

0:33:32.920 --> 0:33:36.600
<v Speaker 2>would say Harris just Trump a fair bit, Trump by

0:33:36.600 --> 0:33:42.320
<v Speaker 2>a country mile, Harris comfortably, or Trump pretty comfortably.

0:33:43.280 --> 0:33:44.280
<v Speaker 1>But nothing to see here.

0:33:44.280 --> 0:33:46.640
<v Speaker 2>The Poles are always right, apart from the fact that

0:33:46.680 --> 0:33:48.440
<v Speaker 2>they were wrong four years ago, and apart from the

0:33:48.440 --> 0:33:49.480
<v Speaker 2>fact they were wrong four.

0:33:49.320 --> 0:33:52.800
<v Speaker 1>Years before that. But you know, Latino voters just want

0:33:52.840 --> 0:33:56.560
<v Speaker 1>to be white apparently. Goodness, quick break back with more

0:33:56.600 --> 0:33:57.280
<v Speaker 1>plenty to talk about.

0:33:57.360 --> 0:33:59.120
<v Speaker 2>We did begin the debate for the rest of the show,

0:33:59.120 --> 0:34:01.600
<v Speaker 2>looking forward to this plenty to fire up about, including

0:34:02.320 --> 0:34:06.200
<v Speaker 2>will normal people care about a budget deficit or budget surplus?

0:34:06.400 --> 0:34:07.960
<v Speaker 1>That and a whole lot more here on pau Murray Life.

0:34:07.960 --> 0:34:09.719
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for watching this Monday, and again thanks to everyone

0:34:09.760 --> 0:34:17.319
<v Speaker 2>who came and saw us last night in VIC. All right,

0:34:17.400 --> 0:34:19.319
<v Speaker 2>let's get on with it here. Sam Crosby in the

0:34:19.320 --> 0:34:21.560
<v Speaker 2>man cave and doing his best right now. Senator Matt

0:34:21.600 --> 0:34:25.239
<v Speaker 2>Canavan of course, jordanus right now from Rocky. So let's

0:34:25.239 --> 0:34:29.400
<v Speaker 2>get into the polls, all right, where Sam Prime Minister's

0:34:29.440 --> 0:34:31.440
<v Speaker 2>able to say, I've ever lost a news poll. I

0:34:31.560 --> 0:34:38.279
<v Speaker 2>just showed dissatisfaction, right, every income group, every demographic, with

0:34:38.280 --> 0:34:42.640
<v Speaker 2>the exception of eighteen to thirty four war, it's men

0:34:42.680 --> 0:34:43.200
<v Speaker 2>and women.

0:34:43.680 --> 0:34:45.319
<v Speaker 13>Can we can write you know what, I'm going to

0:34:45.320 --> 0:34:47.359
<v Speaker 13>answer your question, but can we can we talk about

0:34:47.360 --> 0:34:49.080
<v Speaker 13>this subject when the polls are going in our favor,

0:34:49.680 --> 0:34:52.480
<v Speaker 13>you know next time they're going okay, can we have this?

0:34:52.880 --> 0:34:54.719
<v Speaker 13>Can we have this conversation again if you want to

0:34:54.719 --> 0:34:56.680
<v Speaker 13>come back after the election, what happens?

0:34:56.840 --> 0:34:59.400
<v Speaker 2>But okay, so today we end up again in this

0:34:59.440 --> 0:35:05.160
<v Speaker 2>scenario where the budget unequivocally good news under conventional political wisdom,

0:35:05.680 --> 0:35:10.040
<v Speaker 2>but they're in a hole. Do you think that the election,

0:35:10.160 --> 0:35:12.800
<v Speaker 2>by its very nature means all of this gets reset

0:35:12.960 --> 0:35:15.480
<v Speaker 2>or does stuff start to get baked in here?

0:35:15.960 --> 0:35:20.520
<v Speaker 13>Look, I take your point budget surpluses. I take a

0:35:20.560 --> 0:35:23.520
<v Speaker 13>point from that to story of budget surpluses look terrible

0:35:24.160 --> 0:35:26.720
<v Speaker 13>when people are genuinely struggling, and I work for a charity.

0:35:26.760 --> 0:35:28.920
<v Speaker 13>I see the struggle literally every single day that I'm

0:35:28.920 --> 0:35:32.960
<v Speaker 13>at work. That said, the one thing that I don't

0:35:33.000 --> 0:35:34.879
<v Speaker 13>think you want to do right now is start going

0:35:34.920 --> 0:35:40.080
<v Speaker 13>and spending and spraying this money all over the economy.

0:35:40.080 --> 0:35:42.760
<v Speaker 2>And I'm not saying a thousand bucks for everyone, billion

0:35:42.800 --> 0:35:44.000
<v Speaker 2>dollars for charity.

0:35:44.120 --> 0:35:47.319
<v Speaker 13>Sure, and you know on behalf of my work. I

0:35:47.360 --> 0:35:49.920
<v Speaker 13>will take it, right, I will take it. But quite seriously,

0:35:49.960 --> 0:35:52.160
<v Speaker 13>you know, right now, the one thing that the government

0:35:52.239 --> 0:35:55.640
<v Speaker 13>is hanging their hopes on is an interest rate cut

0:35:56.040 --> 0:35:58.000
<v Speaker 13>sometime between now and whenever the election is going to be.

0:35:58.600 --> 0:36:01.120
<v Speaker 13>And you're only going to get that by yes, ratcheting

0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:05.560
<v Speaker 13>up large budget surpluses. So yeah, I take the point

0:36:05.560 --> 0:36:07.160
<v Speaker 13>that it is a difficult thing to say to someone

0:36:07.160 --> 0:36:09.520
<v Speaker 13>who's struggling to put food on the table. It's okay,

0:36:09.600 --> 0:36:11.400
<v Speaker 13>we've got a fifteen and that's going to result in

0:36:11.400 --> 0:36:13.399
<v Speaker 13>a lower interest payment and therefore your rent.

0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:15.920
<v Speaker 1>It's a long boat boat to draw.

0:36:16.000 --> 0:36:18.480
<v Speaker 13>But if you think about what's actually driving the pain

0:36:18.680 --> 0:36:22.160
<v Speaker 13>that people are experiencing, it's generally related to interest rates.

0:36:22.239 --> 0:36:26.279
<v Speaker 2>Matt, what does the slices of the slices of the slices,

0:36:26.560 --> 0:36:30.080
<v Speaker 2>either in the poll or certainly that the attempt to say, hey,

0:36:30.120 --> 0:36:33.160
<v Speaker 2>good news today, what does it tell you.

0:36:35.440 --> 0:36:38.840
<v Speaker 14>Well, the election's up for grabs, that's for sure. I

0:36:38.880 --> 0:36:43.520
<v Speaker 14>mean the Liberal National Parties will remain the underdog here.

0:36:43.840 --> 0:36:47.600
<v Speaker 14>We're very rarely does the first term government get defeated.

0:36:48.000 --> 0:36:50.800
<v Speaker 14>Hasn't happened since the Great Depression or o'tanney abbit basically

0:36:50.800 --> 0:36:52.880
<v Speaker 14>did it and got done it at the finish line, correct.

0:36:53.600 --> 0:36:54.399
<v Speaker 14>So it's a.

0:36:54.320 --> 0:36:57.160
<v Speaker 1>Tough slog but it's very very close.

0:36:57.360 --> 0:37:02.200
<v Speaker 14>The Australian people, i think, remain unconvence about the mission,

0:37:02.280 --> 0:37:05.680
<v Speaker 14>the purpose, the lack of a plan from this government.

0:37:05.920 --> 0:37:10.239
<v Speaker 14>It's very tough times. It's tough for everybody, but the

0:37:10.280 --> 0:37:13.560
<v Speaker 14>government really just rests back on slogans, not a real plan.

0:37:14.680 --> 0:37:18.879
<v Speaker 14>Their budget has been marked by massive spending. All economists

0:37:19.040 --> 0:37:21.080
<v Speaker 14>say that, yes, they delivered a surplus, but that's on

0:37:21.120 --> 0:37:24.200
<v Speaker 14>the back of a booming commodity market, bigger terms of

0:37:24.239 --> 0:37:27.960
<v Speaker 14>trade than we had after the GFC, and they've gone

0:37:28.000 --> 0:37:30.560
<v Speaker 14>and spent most of that and that's added to inflationary pressures.

0:37:30.760 --> 0:37:33.560
<v Speaker 14>They've hired thirty thousand public servants, that's an extra seven

0:37:33.600 --> 0:37:37.880
<v Speaker 14>billion dollars in the payroll. They've chucked thirty billion dollars

0:37:37.960 --> 0:37:42.040
<v Speaker 14>at various green hydrogen critical minerals booon doggles. It's just

0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:43.759
<v Speaker 14>not the thing that should be done right now to

0:37:43.800 --> 0:37:46.520
<v Speaker 14>try and rain inflation. All the strains know that they've

0:37:46.560 --> 0:37:49.520
<v Speaker 14>got to tighten their belt right now, and they just

0:37:49.560 --> 0:37:52.520
<v Speaker 14>don't see their government doing the same. So people are

0:37:52.560 --> 0:37:54.759
<v Speaker 14>dissolution and they don't know what's going on.

0:37:54.960 --> 0:37:58.080
<v Speaker 2>But equally so, I mean that I'm pretty sure not

0:37:58.160 --> 0:38:02.200
<v Speaker 2>many barbecue stoppers having a chat about per a per

0:38:02.239 --> 0:38:06.440
<v Speaker 2>capita recession, right. But the reason I show those numbers,

0:38:06.480 --> 0:38:08.680
<v Speaker 2>the reason I talk about what that English bolk was

0:38:08.719 --> 0:38:12.320
<v Speaker 2>saying that it's not about the last most recent inflation number,

0:38:12.320 --> 0:38:15.160
<v Speaker 2>it's about all the additions that come before it that

0:38:15.239 --> 0:38:18.880
<v Speaker 2>basically feel like another brick in a brick in your

0:38:18.920 --> 0:38:22.960
<v Speaker 2>saddle bag constantly, let alone the twelve interest rate rises,

0:38:23.000 --> 0:38:25.319
<v Speaker 2>So okay, one, two comes down when you're still ten

0:38:26.280 --> 0:38:28.840
<v Speaker 2>ten up from where you were before the journey started.

0:38:29.920 --> 0:38:31.440
<v Speaker 2>I think we're in a scenario where we're going to

0:38:31.520 --> 0:38:33.759
<v Speaker 2>end up having a conversation that's going to be held

0:38:33.800 --> 0:38:34.120
<v Speaker 2>among a.

0:38:34.120 --> 0:38:34.919
<v Speaker 1>Certain group of people.

0:38:34.920 --> 0:38:36.399
<v Speaker 2>They're going to say, but look at this, and look

0:38:36.400 --> 0:38:38.480
<v Speaker 2>at that, and look at the stock market. The economy

0:38:38.520 --> 0:38:41.880
<v Speaker 2>is great, But the vast majority of people watching, hearing

0:38:41.960 --> 0:38:44.200
<v Speaker 2>or listening to it are going for who?

0:38:46.320 --> 0:38:49.120
<v Speaker 14>I think you've summarized the government's trap right now. They're

0:38:49.160 --> 0:38:51.640
<v Speaker 14>in a bit of a trap where they do say, look,

0:38:51.680 --> 0:38:54.799
<v Speaker 14>isn't it great? Inflation's shopped by point one of a percent? Rough,

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:56.919
<v Speaker 14>isn't it great? You know, the economy's ground by point

0:38:56.920 --> 0:39:01.480
<v Speaker 14>three of a percent. Nobody feels that. You know, the

0:39:01.520 --> 0:39:04.520
<v Speaker 14>government's effectively telling you to not believe your lying eyes.

0:39:05.280 --> 0:39:07.000
<v Speaker 14>Your eyes in front of you see the price of

0:39:07.000 --> 0:39:09.000
<v Speaker 14>everything going up in grocery store is much high than

0:39:09.040 --> 0:39:12.399
<v Speaker 14>what CPI prints at most things have got twenty thirty

0:39:12.440 --> 0:39:16.919
<v Speaker 14>percent easy in the last few years, and you stand

0:39:16.960 --> 0:39:19.319
<v Speaker 14>a living going backwards. They see that the government points

0:39:19.360 --> 0:39:21.600
<v Speaker 14>to a surplus today, how great it is? Well, you know,

0:39:21.600 --> 0:39:23.279
<v Speaker 14>if you actually delve into the numbers, and I'm sure

0:39:23.320 --> 0:39:25.360
<v Speaker 14>not many people do this, but get a inkling of

0:39:25.400 --> 0:39:28.440
<v Speaker 14>it that in fact, over the government's fort estimates the

0:39:28.480 --> 0:39:31.280
<v Speaker 14>next four years, they'll rack up on their own estimates

0:39:31.280 --> 0:39:33.799
<v Speaker 14>one hundred and twenty two billion dollars of deficits. They

0:39:33.880 --> 0:39:36.080
<v Speaker 14>could borrow one hundred and twenty two billion dollars extra,

0:39:36.400 --> 0:39:38.440
<v Speaker 14>and they want credit for the thirty five billion of

0:39:38.480 --> 0:39:41.920
<v Speaker 14>surpluses they've meeked out in the last couple of years.

0:39:42.200 --> 0:39:42.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's absurd.

0:39:44.000 --> 0:39:47.040
<v Speaker 14>The budget is massively expansionary right now, and that's adding

0:39:47.280 --> 0:39:47.920
<v Speaker 14>to people's pain.

0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:50.680
<v Speaker 2>So Sam, for the labor people that I hate watching

0:39:50.760 --> 0:39:53.120
<v Speaker 2>us right now, and again, I appreciate it all. So

0:39:53.120 --> 0:39:55.440
<v Speaker 2>I do appreciate it. You've spent a bit of time

0:39:55.440 --> 0:39:56.880
<v Speaker 2>in the States. We'll talk about that in a second.

0:39:56.920 --> 0:39:59.120
<v Speaker 2>But obviously the Democrats are trying to turn around and say,

0:39:59.200 --> 0:40:02.000
<v Speaker 2>don't worry about the full story of the four years.

0:40:02.000 --> 0:40:04.759
<v Speaker 2>Look at where we are today. Where we're slightly the

0:40:04.800 --> 0:40:07.960
<v Speaker 2>fire is not as intense, but of course that collective

0:40:08.040 --> 0:40:11.640
<v Speaker 2>effect is what you have to be confronted by. So

0:40:11.680 --> 0:40:14.960
<v Speaker 2>how are the Democrats saying to somebody who goes, hang on,

0:40:15.080 --> 0:40:17.239
<v Speaker 2>everything costs more than it was, everything is.

0:40:17.239 --> 0:40:18.239
<v Speaker 1>Higher than it was.

0:40:18.880 --> 0:40:22.400
<v Speaker 2>How do they convince them that, again, their lying eyes

0:40:22.520 --> 0:40:23.520
<v Speaker 2>are their lying eyes.

0:40:23.640 --> 0:40:26.760
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, I don't think you're looking at persuasion too much

0:40:26.880 --> 0:40:29.480
<v Speaker 13>in the United States now. Now it's about getting out

0:40:29.480 --> 0:40:31.880
<v Speaker 13>the vote in your areas and suppressing the vote in

0:40:32.000 --> 0:40:34.240
<v Speaker 13>their areas, and that goes the same way for both sides.

0:40:35.120 --> 0:40:37.600
<v Speaker 13>One of the really interesting people that we or groups

0:40:37.640 --> 0:40:40.040
<v Speaker 13>we spend some time with we're doing the advice for

0:40:40.080 --> 0:40:42.960
<v Speaker 13>the Democratic Party, and they were saying, essentially, in Pennsylvania,

0:40:43.080 --> 0:40:46.200
<v Speaker 13>you have run out of air to buy. Every single

0:40:46.280 --> 0:40:49.759
<v Speaker 13>ad is basically Trump Harris, Trump Harris. And so we

0:40:49.840 --> 0:40:53.759
<v Speaker 13>went there. We're in Pennsylvania for a day and we

0:40:54.120 --> 0:40:56.640
<v Speaker 13>copped a feel of this and literally every single ad

0:40:57.000 --> 0:40:59.960
<v Speaker 13>and so it's no one's trying to persuade you about

0:41:00.080 --> 0:41:02.640
<v Speaker 13>a policy merit or anything like that, which is why

0:41:02.719 --> 0:41:04.640
<v Speaker 13>when we look at the news, we're seeing Harris not

0:41:04.719 --> 0:41:07.279
<v Speaker 13>give you any kind of plan and Trump's sort of

0:41:07.320 --> 0:41:09.120
<v Speaker 13>typical crazy ranting.

0:41:09.280 --> 0:41:11.799
<v Speaker 2>Which I have much to say about this a little later.

0:41:11.840 --> 0:41:14.000
<v Speaker 2>But again different in Australia because you don't have to

0:41:14.000 --> 0:41:16.439
<v Speaker 2>do that. Everyone is forced to go and enroll hues,

0:41:16.520 --> 0:41:18.440
<v Speaker 2>meaning that the reality of the.

0:41:18.440 --> 0:41:21.400
<v Speaker 13>Data, well, I mean it means that our elections you

0:41:21.440 --> 0:41:24.040
<v Speaker 13>focus on, you know, negative gearing and the tax treatment

0:41:24.040 --> 0:41:24.960
<v Speaker 13>and investment properties.

0:41:24.960 --> 0:41:26.040
<v Speaker 1>Doesn't the government do great?

0:41:26.600 --> 0:41:28.680
<v Speaker 13>Sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, But we're having these furious

0:41:28.680 --> 0:41:32.279
<v Speaker 13>debates about frankly, relatively minor changes and we're not talking

0:41:32.280 --> 0:41:36.359
<v Speaker 13>about guns and abortion and these things that motivate your

0:41:36.400 --> 0:41:38.200
<v Speaker 13>base to get out to vote, because your base is

0:41:38.200 --> 0:41:38.520
<v Speaker 13>going to.

0:41:38.440 --> 0:41:39.640
<v Speaker 2>Be there yeah, correct, And I don't know what the

0:41:39.680 --> 0:41:41.719
<v Speaker 2>Australian version of MAGA is, but anyway you can send

0:41:41.719 --> 0:41:42.960
<v Speaker 2>me an them. Paul, let's go on news dot com

0:41:42.960 --> 0:41:44.640
<v Speaker 2>dot you quick break back when more what's it like

0:41:44.719 --> 0:41:45.640
<v Speaker 2>to prepare for Baptist?

0:41:45.640 --> 0:41:47.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's my favorite sport. I'll tell you about

0:41:47.600 --> 0:41:54.960
<v Speaker 1>that and back to the lads in a month. Now.

0:41:54.960 --> 0:41:57.399
<v Speaker 2>Where we were last night in Springvale on the edges

0:41:57.440 --> 0:41:59.879
<v Speaker 2>of Melbourne is also where some of my favorite people

0:41:59.880 --> 0:42:02.320
<v Speaker 2>go work each and every day and is the Arabus

0:42:02.320 --> 0:42:05.520
<v Speaker 2>Motors board team. Now, I, as you know, absolutely love

0:42:05.560 --> 0:42:07.560
<v Speaker 2>the owners of the company, both at Betty and Daniel,

0:42:07.600 --> 0:42:09.839
<v Speaker 2>and I love the people who work all the way

0:42:09.840 --> 0:42:11.759
<v Speaker 2>from taking care of the tires all the way through

0:42:11.760 --> 0:42:14.279
<v Speaker 2>to Barry Ryan, who was of course the bloke in

0:42:14.400 --> 0:42:16.360
<v Speaker 2>charge of the day to day when it comes to

0:42:16.400 --> 0:42:19.160
<v Speaker 2>the team. We had a chance to have a chat

0:42:19.200 --> 0:42:21.280
<v Speaker 2>about what it's like to prepare for Bathist.

0:42:28.719 --> 0:42:31.520
<v Speaker 4>Preparing for Bathist's always special because it's such a big race,

0:42:31.560 --> 0:42:33.919
<v Speaker 4>it's such an important race and it's such a team

0:42:33.960 --> 0:42:37.320
<v Speaker 4>effort to get a result. So yeah, it's always special

0:42:37.360 --> 0:42:39.239
<v Speaker 4>to make sure that you can tick that box and

0:42:39.600 --> 0:42:42.440
<v Speaker 4>get everything right and if you get everything right at Bathist.

0:42:42.480 --> 0:42:44.400
<v Speaker 4>You've done a really good job and it's the biggest

0:42:44.440 --> 0:42:48.680
<v Speaker 4>race of the year. We take pretty much your whole cars,

0:42:48.719 --> 0:42:51.760
<v Speaker 4>where there's spare parts, if not two cars, whether spare parts,

0:42:51.760 --> 0:42:58.680
<v Speaker 4>so yeah, everything you need to rebuild a car. The

0:42:58.719 --> 0:43:01.200
<v Speaker 4>most important thing they've first that might save the day

0:43:01.320 --> 0:43:02.120
<v Speaker 4>is probably.

0:43:03.880 --> 0:43:04.719
<v Speaker 13>Your attitude.

0:43:04.960 --> 0:43:07.560
<v Speaker 4>Good attitude and that that can save the day, whether

0:43:07.560 --> 0:43:10.520
<v Speaker 4>it's a driver or the crew or whoever's running the car.

0:43:10.640 --> 0:43:13.680
<v Speaker 4>It's just, yeah, just being calm and having good attitude.

0:43:14.040 --> 0:43:17.080
<v Speaker 4>You can't practice Queen calm and just being ready for

0:43:17.120 --> 0:43:18.280
<v Speaker 4>any moment that happens.

0:43:18.320 --> 0:43:25.960
<v Speaker 1>Probably that's the biggest thing. Paul.

0:43:26.120 --> 0:43:29.160
<v Speaker 4>He's not that annoying compared to motorsport journalists that they're annoying.

0:43:29.160 --> 0:43:31.560
<v Speaker 4>He's a professional. You always know when falls around because

0:43:31.560 --> 0:43:34.640
<v Speaker 4>it's a car smoke. He's lingering, and you know, he's

0:43:34.680 --> 0:43:37.000
<v Speaker 4>great to have around. He's always there's a joke there

0:43:37.040 --> 0:43:37.959
<v Speaker 4>and there's a hangar.

0:43:38.200 --> 0:43:42.160
<v Speaker 1>But there's a lot of support too. I love your baths.

0:43:42.160 --> 0:43:44.399
<v Speaker 2>I'm glad we've got a beef in there because often

0:43:44.440 --> 0:43:47.120
<v Speaker 2>that is our conversation. I can't wait to see what

0:43:47.120 --> 0:43:48.800
<v Speaker 2>happens when it comes to about this it's going to

0:43:48.880 --> 0:43:50.799
<v Speaker 2>be awesome. All right, let's continue the chatting here with

0:43:50.880 --> 0:43:52.879
<v Speaker 2>Sam Crossby. I think he's going about this himself. You're

0:43:52.920 --> 0:43:55.520
<v Speaker 2>your plan, you're there all right now. I thought we

0:43:55.520 --> 0:43:58.879
<v Speaker 2>were going to have a political panel or something. Work

0:43:59.000 --> 0:44:01.920
<v Speaker 2>by the racetrack. Yes, imagine what the people want. Imagine

0:44:01.920 --> 0:44:03.799
<v Speaker 2>the man who certainly would be there in spirit is

0:44:03.800 --> 0:44:05.359
<v Speaker 2>not on the goalie. A couple of weeks later, of course,

0:44:05.360 --> 0:44:08.040
<v Speaker 2>has Mat Cannavan. So Matt quickly to what is behind

0:44:08.080 --> 0:44:10.520
<v Speaker 2>you now? The opposition has come out hard against the

0:44:10.560 --> 0:44:13.640
<v Speaker 2>Internet's censorship bill, and quite rightly, I think that this

0:44:13.719 --> 0:44:17.440
<v Speaker 2>thing would be surprised, but we know that the Greens

0:44:17.480 --> 0:44:20.120
<v Speaker 2>would probably love it door, Matt Dave will trade something

0:44:20.200 --> 0:44:23.560
<v Speaker 2>for it. Lamby probably because she said crazy things in

0:44:23.600 --> 0:44:26.360
<v Speaker 2>the past about people like Elon Musk. So despite the

0:44:26.400 --> 0:44:28.719
<v Speaker 2>fact the opposition's coming out hard, there is a path

0:44:28.760 --> 0:44:29.600
<v Speaker 2>through the Parliament.

0:44:32.200 --> 0:44:34.120
<v Speaker 14>Yes, so there's a risk Paul know that about it

0:44:34.719 --> 0:44:38.879
<v Speaker 14>than I think, Just like digital ID a few months ago,

0:44:39.040 --> 0:44:41.640
<v Speaker 14>the government could seek to ram this through with basically

0:44:41.680 --> 0:44:44.399
<v Speaker 14>no or minimal debate. There was no debate on its

0:44:44.440 --> 0:44:46.680
<v Speaker 14>digital ID bill in the Senate. It was an absolutely

0:44:46.680 --> 0:44:49.120
<v Speaker 14>outrage there are a lot of amendments being moved. They

0:44:49.280 --> 0:44:51.720
<v Speaker 14>just had to be voted on block. And the government

0:44:51.840 --> 0:44:54.640
<v Speaker 14>scheduled the Senate inquiry on this bill to come back

0:44:54.960 --> 0:44:57.200
<v Speaker 14>on the Monday of the last sitting week, so there's

0:44:57.239 --> 0:44:59.080
<v Speaker 14>days a few days there before the end of the year.

0:44:59.080 --> 0:45:01.440
<v Speaker 14>They could ram this through again, but people just have

0:45:01.480 --> 0:45:04.120
<v Speaker 14>got to make their voices heard. Submissions closed today, but

0:45:04.200 --> 0:45:06.640
<v Speaker 14>normally inquiries accept late submissions if you want to make

0:45:06.640 --> 0:45:09.440
<v Speaker 14>one under this bill. And as you say, this isn't

0:45:09.440 --> 0:45:12.719
<v Speaker 14>attack on free speech, it's a licensing a censorship. I'd

0:45:12.760 --> 0:45:14.839
<v Speaker 14>just like to quickly point out one thing that does

0:45:14.840 --> 0:45:16.759
<v Speaker 14>get missed a bit. What the government's doing here is

0:45:16.800 --> 0:45:20.680
<v Speaker 14>effectively deputizing social media companies to do the censorship on

0:45:20.719 --> 0:45:24.200
<v Speaker 14>their behalf, to be agents of the government effectively. Keep

0:45:24.239 --> 0:45:26.359
<v Speaker 14>in mind, almost all of those social media companies are

0:45:26.800 --> 0:45:30.799
<v Speaker 14>foreign owned companies. So we're giving the authority to a

0:45:30.880 --> 0:45:34.960
<v Speaker 14>US based company to censor Australians and their own political speech.

0:45:34.960 --> 0:45:37.200
<v Speaker 14>And worst there's a company called TikTok out there. They're

0:45:37.239 --> 0:45:41.760
<v Speaker 14>captured by this Australian goverment is giving license to TikTok

0:45:43.000 --> 0:45:45.000
<v Speaker 14>to a company that does have ties with the Chinese

0:45:45.000 --> 0:45:48.600
<v Speaker 14>Commuist Party to license and censor the speech of Australians.

0:45:48.600 --> 0:45:49.319
<v Speaker 1>It's outrageous.

0:45:49.400 --> 0:45:51.680
<v Speaker 2>Well so much so that remember in the United States,

0:45:51.719 --> 0:45:54.200
<v Speaker 2>because of the connections to China, they want them to

0:45:54.239 --> 0:45:58.040
<v Speaker 2>be severed and sold, otherwise it will be banned. That's

0:45:58.080 --> 0:46:02.320
<v Speaker 2>the Biden position. Okay, actually Trump is on the opposite

0:46:02.440 --> 0:46:03.560
<v Speaker 2>of that particular question.

0:46:03.880 --> 0:46:05.479
<v Speaker 1>But we'll all see where it goes again.

0:46:05.560 --> 0:46:08.760
<v Speaker 2>Just quickly back to the States before we're done, Vance

0:46:08.840 --> 0:46:10.000
<v Speaker 2>Walt's the VP debate?

0:46:10.080 --> 0:46:11.040
<v Speaker 1>Do vps matter?

0:46:11.160 --> 0:46:11.200
<v Speaker 12>Know?

0:46:11.680 --> 0:46:13.880
<v Speaker 2>Does it mean that we know what the media outlet's

0:46:13.920 --> 0:46:16.400
<v Speaker 2>going to be, which is Waltz is like everyone's dad.

0:46:16.560 --> 0:46:19.640
<v Speaker 2>He's not and Vance is the craziest person you've ever seen.

0:46:19.880 --> 0:46:20.239
<v Speaker 1>He's not.

0:46:20.400 --> 0:46:21.920
<v Speaker 2>We know what the media in narrative will be for

0:46:21.960 --> 0:46:26.120
<v Speaker 2>a week. Do you think that that's the inevitability no

0:46:26.160 --> 0:46:27.720
<v Speaker 2>matter what happens out of the debate?

0:46:27.800 --> 0:46:31.000
<v Speaker 13>Sam, Look, I think the inevitability of this is no

0:46:31.080 --> 0:46:33.760
<v Speaker 13>one watches, and those that do have their minds firmly

0:46:33.920 --> 0:46:34.319
<v Speaker 13>made up.

0:46:35.880 --> 0:46:37.319
<v Speaker 1>I don't think watching reserve grade.

0:46:37.360 --> 0:46:39.080
<v Speaker 2>God love you if you do it, but we know

0:46:39.200 --> 0:46:41.200
<v Speaker 2>that you're not the casual fan.

0:46:41.600 --> 0:46:44.000
<v Speaker 13>I don't think it moves the dial in any direction.

0:46:44.239 --> 0:46:49.440
<v Speaker 13>It does, however, give Vance a chance to rehabilitate himself.

0:46:49.560 --> 0:46:51.640
<v Speaker 13>He has not had a good campaign. He came in

0:46:51.680 --> 0:46:55.279
<v Speaker 13>on a high, He's not had a good campaign. He

0:46:56.040 --> 0:47:00.279
<v Speaker 13>you know, his prospects if Trump were to lose, do

0:47:00.360 --> 0:47:00.960
<v Speaker 13>not look good.

0:47:01.480 --> 0:47:02.960
<v Speaker 1>If he can put up a really good.

0:47:02.880 --> 0:47:06.879
<v Speaker 13>Show against Waltz, then you know, maybe he can rehabilitate

0:47:06.920 --> 0:47:07.640
<v Speaker 13>his career after this.

0:47:07.760 --> 0:47:07.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:47:07.920 --> 0:47:10.400
<v Speaker 2>I mean, we know if Harris loses, it's not going

0:47:10.440 --> 0:47:12.959
<v Speaker 2>to be Waltz. We know if Trump loses, well, of course,

0:47:12.960 --> 0:47:15.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, the Maga crown can be placed anywhere else.

0:47:16.000 --> 0:47:17.479
<v Speaker 2>So I want to ask you this one quickly before

0:47:17.480 --> 0:47:20.160
<v Speaker 2>we go, Mack, what's one bit of data or one

0:47:20.239 --> 0:47:22.600
<v Speaker 2>story that is rolling around in the American campaign that

0:47:22.680 --> 0:47:26.080
<v Speaker 2>you think is more important than people are giving it

0:47:26.120 --> 0:47:28.719
<v Speaker 2>credit for, or something people should just hear as part

0:47:28.719 --> 0:47:30.560
<v Speaker 2>of their overall knowledge about what's happening on the other

0:47:30.600 --> 0:47:31.240
<v Speaker 2>side of the world.

0:47:33.080 --> 0:47:35.719
<v Speaker 14>It's kind of what you highlighted before, Paul, and that

0:47:35.920 --> 0:47:41.640
<v Speaker 14>is that the Poles never being better for Trump, like,

0:47:42.920 --> 0:47:44.840
<v Speaker 14>never been better for Donald Trump.

0:47:46.000 --> 0:47:48.319
<v Speaker 1>And if you.

0:47:48.320 --> 0:47:50.239
<v Speaker 14>Do correct them for the bias they've had the last

0:47:50.239 --> 0:47:54.160
<v Speaker 14>two election cycles, he's winning by the length of a Strait. Now,

0:47:54.520 --> 0:47:56.680
<v Speaker 14>I don't know, Maybe those poles are corrected their areas.

0:47:56.680 --> 0:47:59.320
<v Speaker 14>Maybe people aren't as shy as coming out as Trump supporters.

0:47:59.360 --> 0:48:02.319
<v Speaker 14>Now I'm not so. It was both election cycles. By

0:48:02.360 --> 0:48:06.560
<v Speaker 14>twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, support for Trump was massively underestimated.

0:48:07.040 --> 0:48:08.560
<v Speaker 14>And when you look at when you drill down and

0:48:08.600 --> 0:48:10.879
<v Speaker 14>look at those polling companies that got it closer to write,

0:48:10.920 --> 0:48:16.080
<v Speaker 14>companies like Atlas Resnusin, they're at the moment pretty strongly

0:48:16.120 --> 0:48:18.840
<v Speaker 14>in favor of Trump. So keep coming back to that

0:48:18.920 --> 0:48:21.239
<v Speaker 14>fact that he's probably the best candidate as his JD.

0:48:21.400 --> 0:48:24.040
<v Speaker 14>Van's his running mate for those Midwestern seats that are

0:48:24.040 --> 0:48:24.840
<v Speaker 14>the crucial areas.

0:48:24.920 --> 0:48:27.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we'll see. Give me the year fifteen second version.

0:48:27.640 --> 0:48:31.239
<v Speaker 13>Look, my great worry is what actually happens on polling day,

0:48:31.960 --> 0:48:36.799
<v Speaker 13>especially in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is an open carry state. Tensions

0:48:36.880 --> 0:48:38.200
<v Speaker 13>are really.

0:48:37.960 --> 0:48:39.880
<v Speaker 1>High right now, something's going to happen.

0:48:40.840 --> 0:48:44.600
<v Speaker 13>Well, no, no, no, no, no, absolutely not. But what

0:48:44.719 --> 0:48:49.400
<v Speaker 13>people are talking about election monitors where both campaigns will

0:48:49.440 --> 0:48:52.040
<v Speaker 13>have people walking out the lines and it just gets

0:48:52.040 --> 0:48:53.960
<v Speaker 13>too rough and people will be walking up and down

0:48:53.960 --> 0:48:57.560
<v Speaker 13>the lines in them militia gear. And that's a bit scary.

0:48:57.960 --> 0:48:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much to appreciate it.

0:48:59.440 --> 0:49:01.160
<v Speaker 2>On that I I good bought not we'll see you

0:49:01.160 --> 0:49:03.360
<v Speaker 2>again tomorrow or not when Agel Farage is here. And

0:49:03.480 --> 0:49:05.400
<v Speaker 2>as always a light to buy in a couple of minutes.

0:49:06.800 --> 0:49:09.920
<v Speaker 10>Yeah h