Speaker 1: From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. You know,
Speaker 1: a modern misconception of the husky gens is that this
Speaker 1: just happens overnight. No, No, this only happens when you commit.
Speaker 1: And I committed every single day, certainly of high school
Speaker 1: Sausage roll, cheese twists, chocolate moves all day, every day
Speaker 1: and look at the result. Look at my body is
Speaker 1: a temple, you know, one of those mind ones right
Speaker 1: at the back of the jungle. That's mine. All right,
Speaker 1: We've got a lot to get to tonight, including Sunday
Speaker 1: Nights hardcore night for politics. This is when we get
Speaker 1: right into it, all the detail they'll be talking about
Speaker 1: for the next week or so when it comes to
Speaker 1: the state of the race. Yeah, we've got to get
Speaker 1: it ready for the budget can Honestly, the spending is ludicrous.
Speaker 1: They want a gold Star for twenty five dollars a
Speaker 1: months off your power bill, fit income and how good.
Speaker 1: Oscar Perstoria is the next dozy, looking like he's on
Speaker 1: his way to big success in Formula one. He won
Speaker 1: in China today, figures cross he'll be able to get
Speaker 1: over Lando and be the world champion by the end
Speaker 1: of the year. All right. Now, as we know, the
Speaker 1: greatest Prime minister of all time, he's not focused on
Speaker 1: upgrades for himself when it comes to personal travel. He's
Speaker 1: not interested in making sure that he's got a multimillion
Speaker 1: dollar retirement plan just in case you the electorate, don't
Speaker 1: give him seventeen terms as prime minister. No. No, he's
Speaker 1: a person who is focused, like us, on the number
Speaker 1: one issue in the country.
Speaker 2: A plan to address cost of living. Take pressure off
Speaker 2: cost of living, pressure off the cost of living, the
Speaker 2: cost of living, cost of living, cost of living, relief
Speaker 2: downward pressure on cost of living.
Speaker 1: And I don't know about you, but you know ourbonomics
Speaker 1: has worked, hasn't it. I mean he promised at the
Speaker 1: start of the last campaign that everything can be cheaper.
Speaker 1: And I don't know about you. I mean everything's gone
Speaker 1: down since election. I know that's right. That's just Australian's
Speaker 1: confidence and trust in government. Now we also know today
Speaker 1: about just who was being taken care of and focused today.
Speaker 1: The real priority when it comes to cost of living
Speaker 1: was it small business? Where today you could read a
Speaker 1: story that ossie couples who run small businesses they've had
Speaker 1: to go without money to keep their own businesses afloat.
Speaker 1: In fact, self employed small business owners are paying themselves
Speaker 1: less at the same time as inflation to smash their
Speaker 1: buying power, resulting in an eighteen percent collapse in real
Speaker 1: income for somebody who owns a small business since Labor
Speaker 1: took office. The decline comes as food prices, energy insurance,
Speaker 1: rent and wage increases of all fueled a surge in
Speaker 1: hospitality businesses, which have shuttered at an our nine point
Speaker 1: three percent rate in February. That is, of all of
Speaker 1: the businesses, almost ten percent in small business, particularly focused
Speaker 1: in and around restaurants they've closed on. It wasn't their
Speaker 1: cost of living? What about the effects that the cost
Speaker 1: living crisis has had on poorer and vulnerable Australians. Was
Speaker 1: that the focus is that what we're going to be
Speaker 1: having a national conversation about in the next few days. Well, No,
Speaker 1: even though there's an article that you could read today,
Speaker 1: available online, available in the newspapers that shows the cost
Speaker 1: of living crunch has actually resulted in an increase in
Speaker 1: child neglect. Australia's cost living crisis has been linked to
Speaker 1: a record three hundred and seven and twenty two child
Speaker 1: abuse and neglect notifications. Can I just repeat that number,
Speaker 1: three hundred and seven thousand neglect notifications. That's up twelve
Speaker 1: percent over the past two years. Why inflation difficult is
Speaker 1: when it comes to somewhere to live, either the one
Speaker 1: that you're renting or the one that you were paying for. No, no, no,
Speaker 1: no no. Today the Prime Minister was out there fighting
Speaker 1: for the cost of living of lazy public servants. Now,
Speaker 1: not all public servants are lazy, but push there's an
Speaker 1: awful lot of them that are. This is after, of
Speaker 1: course he's already hired an extra thirty nine thousand of them.
Speaker 1: And as we know, the Coalition is planning to bring
Speaker 1: the public sector back to pre COVID levels. Oh e,
Speaker 1: they're going to trim some of the fat. They think
Speaker 1: that Australia does not need an extra forty thousand public
Speaker 1: servants doing the jobs on top of the hundreds of
Speaker 1: thousands that already cost us billions and billions of dollars
Speaker 1: each in every year. In fact, here is the shadow
Speaker 1: Finance spokesperson whom, if don't becomes Prime Minister, will be
Speaker 1: in charge of the public service.
Speaker 3: We think that the thirty six thousand public servants that
Speaker 3: have been brought on haven't demonstrated that the improvements to
Speaker 3: the put to the services to the public have been corresponding.
Speaker 3: We think we can bring it back down to levels
Speaker 3: that were at the end of COVID, not the beginning
Speaker 3: of COVID, I might add at the end of COVID.
Speaker 1: And part of what they want to do is to
Speaker 1: get public servants to go back to the office that
Speaker 1: is already paid for by the tax. You see, not
Speaker 1: just because they're nasty and evil, but they want people
Speaker 1: to go back so that all the cafes, the restaurants,
Speaker 1: all of the businesses, the cleanings, all the rest of
Speaker 1: it that actually service those buildings will be able to
Speaker 1: remain employed on and over. The Prime Minister has come
Speaker 1: out today and his focus while Grimjim's twenty five dollars
Speaker 1: a month power nonsense is what they want to distract
Speaker 1: you with today, he says that getting more public servants
Speaker 1: than ever before to stay working at home will help
Speaker 1: them with the cost of living. You see. One of
Speaker 1: the reasons why a public servant doesn't have to go
Speaker 1: back to the office that we're already paying for is
Speaker 1: because they would have to use some of their own
Speaker 1: money to get to work, just like every other person
Speaker 1: who has to get themselves to work, let alone a
Speaker 1: small business who of course is going backwards out of
Speaker 1: this government. But sh nothing to see here. Here's the
Speaker 1: Prime Minister picking the cushy life of a public servant
Speaker 1: over small business and over kids in neglect today because
Speaker 1: this is what he chose to talk about.
Speaker 2: Working from home has enabled them to work full time
Speaker 2: and therefore it has increased workforce participation.
Speaker 1: This guy, this guy. Now, after the budget this week,
Speaker 1: the expectation is the election could be called as early
Speaker 1: as next weekend. We will have Peter Dutton at a
Speaker 1: special pub test on the following Monday, so not this
Speaker 1: but next Monday in his electorate. I want you to
Speaker 1: check out the questions of people have got because we've
Speaker 1: got a nice full room and people got plenty of
Speaker 1: questions for the alternative prime minister. Of course, the media
Speaker 1: between now and then will do everything they can to
Speaker 1: boost the current Prime Minister, trying to pretend you that
Speaker 1: everything is better, despite the fact that while every indiccy
Speaker 1: from child abuse to small businesses have shown that this
Speaker 1: joint has gone backwards fast under the current mob. Which
Speaker 1: brings us to the buyoffs that are planned for this week.
Speaker 1: Forget what they promised three years ago that cost living
Speaker 1: would be cheaper. No, no, no, no, no, the government now,
Speaker 1: so we'll just hand out billions more on top of
Speaker 1: the billions already promised. Now, as you know, labor is
Speaker 1: the side of politics that decided to get rid of
Speaker 1: the energy system that worked, and it worked for decades because,
Speaker 1: of course it was powered by coal. Evil, awful, nasty coal.
Speaker 1: You know, the type of stuff that the Ukraine has
Speaker 1: been asking us to send them to help power their
Speaker 1: country in a time of war. No, no, we're better
Speaker 1: than that. So we decided to blow up what worked
Speaker 1: before we had spent the hundreds of billions of dollars
Speaker 1: to replace it with what now we know does not.
Speaker 1: We also know that this is the government that, in
Speaker 1: one of their first acts as government, decided to have
Speaker 1: everyone stand around as they signed a piece of paper
Speaker 1: saying that we will now set a law in this
Speaker 1: country that Australia will cut forty three percent of one
Speaker 1: percent of the world's emissions, and we will in part
Speaker 1: do it with more than eighty percent renewable energy. Of course,
Speaker 1: they say that it's the cheapest form of energy, and
Speaker 1: it may it will be in thirty years time, but
Speaker 1: right now it has to be built. And as you know,
Speaker 1: it's tens of thousands of solar panels each and every day.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, made by slave labor in China, but sh
Speaker 1: wind farms hundreds of thousands of those that will be needed,
Speaker 1: both onshore offshore. Bug of the birds. Who cares about
Speaker 1: the dolphins? And I know we must destroy the earth
Speaker 1: in order to save the atmosphere, And all of this
Speaker 1: was apparently going to cut your power bills. Now, I
Speaker 1: won't play the same thing that we've played hundreds of
Speaker 1: times since the last election. But you remember the promise
Speaker 1: to seventy five teeth, eventy five teeth, eventy five teeth
Speaker 1: aventy five. That was the promise that basically, take your
Speaker 1: power bill from May of twenty twenty two compared to
Speaker 1: the one in May or right now, what at the
Speaker 1: end of March April of twenty twenty five, and it'll
Speaker 1: be two hundred and seventy five dollars cheaper. Why because
Speaker 1: we've moved from that evil, awful coal and we've replaced
Speaker 1: it with all the stuff that is so much cheaper.
Speaker 1: The only problem is the cost of transition the CSIO
Speaker 1: once told us was trillion dollars, but now they say
Speaker 1: it's half a trillion dollars. But apparently we all know
Speaker 1: that it's a little higher than that, and of course
Speaker 1: it has all of the destruction that goes with it.
Speaker 1: But because they have failed to deliver on that promise,
Speaker 1: and again I say it for the unpdeenth time, Tony
Speaker 1: Abbott promised in twenty thirteen to stop the boats if
Speaker 1: he had not stopped the boats, but in fact more
Speaker 1: boats were turning up by twenty sixteen, unless, of course
Speaker 1: the ghost had already knifed him. What do you think
Speaker 1: the reaction would have been of the Camber Press gallery.
Speaker 1: Apparently this promise just doesn't matter. It's never mattered to
Speaker 1: them because it was lipstick on the pig. It's exactly
Speaker 1: the same policy that Bill Shorten was defeated in with
Speaker 1: two thousand and nineteen. But in twenty twenty two, if
Speaker 1: we tell everyone they're going to get a power bill cut,
Speaker 1: they'll vote for it, and they did so. They either
Speaker 1: screwed up or they lied, and I think it's pretty
Speaker 1: obvious that they lied right and twelve months ago when
Speaker 1: they were delivering what they then thought would be final
Speaker 1: budget ahead of what they were planning. Could be an
Speaker 1: early election as soon as the back half of last year,
Speaker 1: but definitely not as late this year. But we all
Speaker 1: know that the storms have cost the federal budget one
Speaker 1: point two billion dollars. Okay Radio. They made a promise,
Speaker 1: and that promise was that they would pay three hundred
Speaker 1: dollars off everyone's power bill, and then you start doing
Speaker 1: the sums. Well, of course, most people pay their power
Speaker 1: bills quarterly, so that was like seven hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: five dollars, and then if you divide that between the
Speaker 1: number of months that are in a quarter, it's twenty
Speaker 1: five dollars twenty five dollars a month. And there's no
Speaker 1: means testing, meaning the biggest mansion with the most cashed
Speaker 1: up person in Australia they got the same relief as
Speaker 1: somebody that was on the bones of their backside in
Speaker 1: a shack in the bush, because you could be bothered
Speaker 1: administering this policy. What of course they wanted was a
Speaker 1: multi billion dollar slogan for an election that a tax
Speaker 1: cut for every Australian, Sure, the people who needed it.
Speaker 1: It was fourti dollars a week, and a power bill
Speaker 1: cut for every Australian for those who needed it again
Speaker 1: just twenty five dollars a month. All of this costs
Speaker 1: multiple billions of dollars, and they don't give you the money.
Speaker 1: They pay the power bills of the power companies that
Speaker 1: just happened to, in many cases be the same companies
Speaker 1: that are getting government subsidies to spend the hundreds of
Speaker 1: billions of dollars to build the new electricity grid that
Speaker 1: fingers cross one day will be cheaper than what currently works.
Speaker 1: And if you've been paying any attention to the inconsistencies
Speaker 1: in this then you, of course are the problem. We
Speaker 1: are the climate deniers. Of course, I've never denied that
Speaker 1: if you have seven eight billion people on the planet,
Speaker 1: multiple industrial revolutions, that you're probably going to do something
Speaker 1: to the natural ecosystem. And certainly Australia is part of
Speaker 1: a globe and needs to do it's bit. But if
Speaker 1: we're one percent of the world's problem, one percent of
Speaker 1: the world's problem, we should look to countries like say
Speaker 1: China that are thirty something percent of the problem. When
Speaker 1: do they have to get to net zero twenty fifty
Speaker 1: like us on a hotel twenty sixty. The United States
Speaker 1: has done the hokey pokey both being out and then
Speaker 1: in and then out and then in of the Paris Agreement,
Speaker 1: and they're what twenty something percent, so they're not agreeing
Speaker 1: to this system. And then there's the third world developing countries,
Speaker 1: the Global South, a's the lefties like to call them.
Speaker 1: They don't have to apply to this either. Then there's India,
Speaker 1: then there's Russia, and countries like China get to call
Speaker 1: themselves developing countries. So again, despite the fact they've got
Speaker 1: a space station and have held the Olympics twice this century, No, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: they must be treated like the country like a country
Speaker 1: in Africa that can't keep its head above water. Of course,
Speaker 1: so Australia signs the piece of paper and continues on
Speaker 1: a path despite the fact that wha more than half,
Speaker 1: we're kind of getting our close to two thirds, but
Speaker 1: let's say over half of the planet is not playing
Speaker 1: the same game that we're playing. But this government, of
Speaker 1: course says that there is a moral need for us
Speaker 1: to do this, So they can go off and either
Speaker 1: go to climate conferences or spend hundreds of millions of
Speaker 1: dollars for US to host climate conferences because you see,
Speaker 1: they don't care because they're the ones that have got
Speaker 1: three pay rises, promises on six hundred grand ministers on
Speaker 1: four hundred thousand dollars. Most of the people in charge
Speaker 1: of the businesses or spinning for the businesses, or the
Speaker 1: ones setting the rules, they've got hundreds of thousands of
Speaker 1: dollars a year. Oh small business, whatever, But can I
Speaker 1: have a lard a place or how's everything going? Oh
Speaker 1: that's a shame, isn't it. Well, today they are going
Speaker 1: to extend the system that has already been there for
Speaker 1: the past twelve months and they're going to extend it
Speaker 1: for another six months, which means the media called this
Speaker 1: out for what it is, right, twenty five bucks a
Speaker 1: month on No, the government made an announcement, so you
Speaker 1: need to have the biggest number possible and did in
Speaker 1: the media love this one to day, every Sydney household
Speaker 1: will receive a further one hundred and fifty dollars off
Speaker 1: their power bills. Latest offering one hundred and fifty dollars
Speaker 1: off power bill.
Speaker 4: Now the one hundred and fifty dollars rebate, so it'll
Speaker 4: be a one hundred and fifty dollars rebate and.
Speaker 5: Your major pledge by the federal government to bring down
Speaker 5: soaring energy prices.
Speaker 2: One hundred and fifty dollars rebate applied to their power bills.
Speaker 1: So you see, they think you're so stupid that they've
Speaker 1: cut your power bill by three hundred dollars in the
Speaker 1: past twelve months, and now it's going to be an
Speaker 1: extra one hundred and fifty So they've technically brought power
Speaker 1: down by four hundred and fifty bucks. Right, No, twenty
Speaker 1: five dollars are quarter for multiple quarters that go to
Speaker 1: a year, and now they're going to push it through
Speaker 1: for another six months. So the Prime Minister spins it
Speaker 1: like this.
Speaker 2: And it follows the seventy five dollars, another seventy five,
Speaker 2: another seventy five, and another seventy five that they've received
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 1: Twenty five, twenty five, twenty five, twenty five. There's lots
Speaker 1: of ways you can cut the number, but the reality
Speaker 1: is people either pay a quarterly bill or they pay
Speaker 1: a monthly bill. But either way, seventy five dollars paid
Speaker 1: to the power company to not pass on the increases.
Speaker 1: It's kind of the whole point. It also creates about
Speaker 1: zero point five percent reduction in the overall number when
Speaker 1: it comes to inflation. Now, as you know, inflation, if
Speaker 1: it is between two and three percent, the preserved Bank's fine.
Speaker 1: If it's above three percent, well they keep interest rates high.
Speaker 1: And interest rates have gone up twelve times under this government.
Speaker 1: Oh sorry, they've come down once since, saving you a
Speaker 1: grand total of one hundred bucks, when it's already cost
Speaker 1: you tens of thousands of dollars extra to pay off
Speaker 1: your home under this mob. And now they again think
Speaker 1: you're so stupid that you won't notice that the power
Speaker 1: bill that I told you to keep on the fridge
Speaker 1: from the last election, and if it was two hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy five dollars lower than that number, then guess
Speaker 1: what you should vote? Labor. Well, the reality is that,
Speaker 1: of course it's many hundreds of dollars. In fact, the
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars or thousands of dollars higher if you
Speaker 1: happen to be in a small business. But Jim Chalmers
Speaker 1: doesn't think that you even pay attention to the bills
Speaker 1: that you pay. He thinks you've got some sort of
Speaker 1: autopay and you'll never really notice, they think that you'll
Speaker 1: fall for the nonsense of where you have helped people
Speaker 1: four hundred and fifty dollars with their power bills when
Speaker 1: the actual thing is twenty five dollars a month and
Speaker 1: the cost of power has gone up way more than
Speaker 1: twenty five dollars a month since this mob came to power.
Speaker 1: But Jim charmers again, I repeat, he thinks you aren't
Speaker 1: even paying attention to your own bills, because what about
Speaker 1: this garbage he was spraying around today.
Speaker 5: Don't forget, in the last year to December and the
Speaker 5: official inflation data, electricity prices went down by twenty five percent.
Speaker 1: And you know what that reduction is. That reduction is
Speaker 1: the amount that the government has been paying the power bills.
Speaker 1: So don't forget power bills are coming down. But hang on,
Speaker 1: aren't you paying the power bills not to pass on
Speaker 1: some of the increase? Sh nobody's going to notice he's
Speaker 1: claiming power bills are going down when what was that
Speaker 1: story that was in that far right wing publication, the
Speaker 1: Sidony Molner Huru. In fact, from July, power bills are
Speaker 1: expected to go up by two hundred dollars. This is
Speaker 1: on top of the ones that went up last year
Speaker 1: or the year before or the year before that. They
Speaker 1: do think you're that stupid. I certainly hope that the
Speaker 1: election will remind them. No, well now, and you can't
Speaker 1: buy me off with twenty five dollars a month, which
Speaker 1: brings me to another thing to remind you, please be
Speaker 1: here on Tuesday night. Tuesday night, nine thirty astraight in
Speaker 1: eastern day light time eight thirty in Queensland is when
Speaker 1: we are going to have our budget show. Now, I've
Speaker 1: done these for fifteen years, and you know that over
Speaker 1: fifteen years, generally speaking, there's the reaction that comes out
Speaker 1: of camera, and that's fine. They've sat around all day
Speaker 1: pretending that they're studying an exam. I've been in those rooms.
Speaker 1: They're not studying an exam. There's double checking what everyone
Speaker 1: else is going to report. And generally speaking, if it's
Speaker 1: a labor government, they take whatever numbers they give and
Speaker 1: they say completely fine, there's no suspicion about the numbers whatsoever.
Speaker 1: There of course will be no issue whatsoever that a
Speaker 1: government that claimed they were better than the Liberal Party
Speaker 1: they went from deficit to surplus surplus. But of course
Speaker 1: we know now that it is going to go back
Speaker 1: into deficits. And remember, every single dollar in deficit is
Speaker 1: added to every previous deficit of every government in the
Speaker 1: history of this country. And certainly we know that debt
Speaker 1: was way down, if not completely gone, under Howard. So
Speaker 1: we're talking about every budget deficit of Rudd, of Gillard,
Speaker 1: of Rudd, of Abbot, of Turbul, of Morrison, and now
Speaker 1: of Albaneze. In fact, the is some expectation that there
Speaker 1: is going to end up being as high as twenty
Speaker 1: billion dollars when it comes to the budget deficit. Now
Speaker 1: I think that's just a bit of spin and it
Speaker 1: will probably end up being seven billions, so therefore it's
Speaker 1: not as bad as twenty Well, every dollar in deficit
Speaker 1: is added to every other previous one, So if you've
Speaker 1: got a trillion dollars worth of debt, it'll be a
Speaker 1: trillion and twenty billion dollars worth of debt. Jim Chalmers
Speaker 1: fourth budget it will feature an underlying deficit of about
Speaker 1: twenty billion, but once these off budget items are properly
Speaker 1: accounted for, it the real deficit is almost double. Remember
Speaker 1: I've told you about that before, that there's a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of stuff that they will have in those budget documents,
Speaker 1: and then there's a whole bunch of staff that they
Speaker 1: don't put in those budget documents despite the fact that
Speaker 1: they still are borrowing money from overseas to pay for them.
Speaker 1: So the actual increase in the deficit will not be
Speaker 1: five billion, will not be ten billion, but will probably
Speaker 1: be one hundred billion dollars. According again to the Financial Review,
Speaker 1: who've kept a pretty strong on our eye on all
Speaker 1: of this, they claim there is off budget spending of
Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars by this government. So there's all
Speaker 1: the money that they're going to tell us about on Tuesday,
Speaker 1: and then there's all the money they're hiding from you,
Speaker 1: which could be one hundred billion dollars extra. This is
Speaker 1: the stuff that is an investment, but the reality is
Speaker 1: that it's all borrow money, and borrow money will be
Speaker 1: part of the Australian economic story for the next one, two, three,
Speaker 1: four decades. The Prime Minister wants to talk about seventy
Speaker 1: five dollars, seventy five dollars, seventy five dollars when he's
Speaker 1: looking back at what eighteen months of trying to fool
Speaker 1: people when it comes to their budget savings from power
Speaker 1: bills that are already going up. That then, of course
Speaker 1: fakes an inflation number that they then turn around and
Speaker 1: use to tell the Reserve Bank you must cut interest rates,
Speaker 1: when the actual reality is that if Australia wasn't spending
Speaker 1: as much money as it is on public servants, then
Speaker 1: we would be in a recession. The only way that
Speaker 1: our country is slightly moving forward is because of the
Speaker 1: amount of government money that is being spent, including this
Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars that's off budget. And if you
Speaker 1: think again, I'm just making up this number that we're
Speaker 1: going to be in a budget deficit for the next
Speaker 1: forty years. Yet again, I show you the Intergenerational Report
Speaker 1: produced by Jim Charmers buy the same people who will
Speaker 1: make the budget on Tuesday. Every one of those lines
Speaker 1: inside that red box is a deficit, and you see
Speaker 1: how bad they get. We're forty years from now when
Speaker 1: apparently our population will be what ten fifteen million people
Speaker 1: more than it currently is. Fifteen million more tax payers
Speaker 1: most likely to be brought into the country rather than
Speaker 1: people who end up getting born here because people don't
Speaker 1: have as many kids as they used to. That's the
Speaker 1: real picture of the budget. That's why you should join
Speaker 1: us Tuesday night. Cut the spin, cut the bs. We'll
Speaker 1: get straight through it, I promise you Tuesday Night, straight
Speaker 1: after the coverage from camera US nine point thirty and
Speaker 1: in fact we're doing a ninety minute show all the
Speaker 1: way to eleven o'clock, a straight ANEC in daylight time
Speaker 1: late debate after that, so no one's missing out on
Speaker 1: Budget Night. But be here in the front row because
Speaker 1: I'm going to hit this one for six when it
Speaker 1: comes to the latest numbers and we're getting to a
Speaker 1: state at the race in the moment or two time,
Speaker 1: you should know THEO is some few poles around the
Speaker 1: latest ones. Again they start to show things get being
Speaker 1: slightly better for the Labor Party. But let's look at
Speaker 1: this thing state by state, because while currently it's like
Speaker 1: fifty one forty nine might be the Libs way, might
Speaker 1: be Labour's way. One of the things that is propping
Speaker 1: up the Labour Party right now is a pretty solid
Speaker 1: vote outside of New South Wales and Victoria and Queensland.
Speaker 1: In fact, once you look at Western Australia it is
Speaker 1: fifty five forty five. When you have a look at
Speaker 1: South Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Act forty six. But the
Speaker 1: reason that the government could lose certainly its majority and
Speaker 1: possibly government is because they are behind in Victoria fifty
Speaker 1: one forty nine. That'd be a few seats in the
Speaker 1: chain's hands. In New South Wales they are way behind
Speaker 1: fifty two forty eight, and they are behind Daylight fifty
Speaker 1: five to forty five in Queensland. Watch this space if
Speaker 1: you want a little more detail, we can get into
Speaker 1: the primary vote. If you'd really like to remember. Thirty
Speaker 1: three percent nationally is what Labour had last time to
Speaker 1: form government. They were, of course, the lowest they had
Speaker 1: been in one hundred years. It's now down to thirty.
Speaker 1: The Libs are up to thirty nine, the magical number
Speaker 1: of there's a four in front of it. They would
Speaker 1: be likely to win an election. News of Whales are
Speaker 1: prom we vote forty two. Queensland primary vote forty two
Speaker 1: for the coalition. Labour Party's best state right now Western
Speaker 1: Australia thirty five percent. Now that's good because from their
Speaker 1: perspective they've got four seats in risks. They may only
Speaker 1: end up losing one. But if you're going to lose
Speaker 1: way more than one in New soth Wales, or in
Speaker 1: Victoria or in Queensland, you're not going to be able
Speaker 1: to hold on to a majority, let alone government at all.
Speaker 1: Number one issue doesn't matter what the state is. Cost
Speaker 1: of living. Second biggest issue housing. Now there's a real
Speaker 1: opportunity for Peter Dunton in his budget and reply speech
Speaker 1: which happens on Thursday, What if anything can he do
Speaker 1: to help people buy a house or to pay for
Speaker 1: a house when it comes to rent. One of the
Speaker 1: ways you can do that is, of course to dramatically
Speaker 1: slash immigration, which he's doing. One of the things he's
Speaker 1: promising to do in his first term is to guarantee
Speaker 1: that there will be no foreign buyers. Good. He's promising
Speaker 1: that as well. That's what he promised twelve months ago
Speaker 1: and that became popular with seventy three percent of people
Speaker 1: in marginal electorates. Yes, I know he's behind a bit
Speaker 1: at the moment in terms of what the media say
Speaker 1: is happening in the election, but wa'ts this space. He's
Speaker 1: got a big chance Thursday day. Meantime, when it comes
Speaker 1: to the preferred Prime Minister, Anthony Ebernezi up forty four
Speaker 1: to Dunton's forty three. But hang on, I thought he
Speaker 1: was unelectable yet one point margin of error, by the way,
Speaker 1: in this poll is what three percent almost four percent
Speaker 1: or five percent in terms of the Western Australian numbers
Speaker 1: forty four apiece in New South Wales? Are they leading
Speaker 1: in Victoria by three points, behind in Queensland by two
Speaker 1: up in Western Australia and up across the rest of
Speaker 1: the state. Pay attention. That's what we do each and
Speaker 1: every night here on the show, and we will certainly
Speaker 1: pay attention in a moment or two's time when it
Speaker 1: comes to the state of the race. Looking forward to
Speaker 1: that Sunday night, hardcore politics each and every week here
Speaker 1: on Paulmray Life. A couple of other things away from politics.
Speaker 1: Pope Francis is up and about and likely to be
Speaker 1: released from hospital in the next few days. Incredible story
Speaker 1: for the Pontiff. Remember he was apparently very close to
Speaker 1: death's door. Now some Vatican officials are saying that was
Speaker 1: never the case. But if that wasn't the case, why
Speaker 1: berg cardinals being called back to the Vatican. Excellent piece
Speaker 1: of news. So thoughts and prayers if that's your thing.
Speaker 1: Certainly seem to have helped Pope Francis. As I mentioned before,
Speaker 1: the great Oscar Piastre. He didn't just win the Chinese
Speaker 1: Formula one Grand Prix, he beat his own teammates, so
Speaker 1: same car, same quality by almost ten seconds. He's also
Speaker 1: busin he and in the United States we know there
Speaker 1: are too many lunatics who think the best way to
Speaker 1: get back of Donald Trump and the person trying to
Speaker 1: make their government more efficient in Elon Musk is to
Speaker 1: set fire to the cars that Elon Musk makes. Now,
Speaker 1: of course, Elon Musk popularized the electronic car so much
Speaker 1: so that he forced all of the major car companies
Speaker 1: to start making them again. But no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: he's maga. Now he's dark maga. And twenty percent of
Speaker 1: Americans now say that they are boycotting any sort of
Speaker 1: business with any connection to the Trump world because you know,
Speaker 1: they're better than us. Right. Also, one of the things
Speaker 1: that was worth noticing was one of the dreams that
Speaker 1: writing people in the United States have had some time
Speaker 1: is for the abortion issue to go back to the States.
Speaker 1: He did that, and then the first sorry in the
Speaker 1: period of time where of course he got the majority
Speaker 1: of people under the Supreme Court, they send it back
Speaker 1: to the states and guess what, he didn't pay a
Speaker 1: price for it in an election. And also many people
Speaker 1: have said it should be states that decide how the
Speaker 1: education system works in those states. And yes, there's still
Speaker 1: money that goes from the federal Department of Education into
Speaker 1: things like school lunch programs, and that will still go
Speaker 1: to the states, but there won't be a federal Department
Speaker 1: of Education. And hasn't that got the left is just
Speaker 1: all asunder goodness may how's this for some duds?
Speaker 4: In a twist, people who can read and understand what
Speaker 4: they're doing to medicaid, to Social Security, what Elon Musk
Speaker 4: is doing. The better you're reading comprehension is the more
Speaker 4: you might not like what this administration is doing. So
Speaker 4: an educated citizenry is not in their interest.
Speaker 1: So they want Americans to be dumber. According to this
Speaker 1: bloke's logic, what's his position when it comes to legal
Speaker 1: marijuana in more than thirty states where people are stoned,
Speaker 1: they could be smart people, they could be dumb people,
Speaker 1: but they're still stoned, So you're cool with that. But
Speaker 1: if the state government is in charge of your education
Speaker 1: of the federal government. The sky's falling in. Welcome to
Speaker 1: Lefty Logic. Quick break back with more state of the race.
Speaker 1: It's the deep dive in the politics you need to know,
Speaker 1: ahead of the budget, ahead of the election. Thanks for
Speaker 1: watching us here Sunday night on Paul Murray Life. Geez,
Speaker 1: I'm feeling good tonight. I had a ripping weekend. You
Speaker 1: want to know why I had a ripping weekend? Sorry,
Speaker 1: just waiting for you to talk. Here's the deal. Cleaned
Speaker 1: out the garage like the full proper one, like organizing,
Speaker 1: even making sure that all the right screws were in
Speaker 1: the little thing that I'll never open again because I'm
Speaker 1: not a handyman. You know, I'll fix the whole thing.
Speaker 1: Pressure washing. It was fantastic. Even put together shelves and
Speaker 1: reorganize the garden shed at the back. Why, I don't know,
Speaker 1: but I feel good because I know that we're getting
Speaker 1: ready for election. We're into warm but next week. But
Speaker 1: you know what makes me feel even better than that?
Speaker 1: About to talk to these blokes. Cost Samrus from Redbridge,
Speaker 1: of course, the premiere polling and strategic company that talks
Speaker 1: to voters as well as as well as bring some
Speaker 1: numbers back. Obviously News Poll that's the hometown team. But
Speaker 1: I really like these guys too, cos Sam Marus joins
Speaker 1: us and the man who I know because I saw
Speaker 1: some social media he wasn't cleaning out his garage, none
Speaker 1: of than Michael Kroger. You know you can get your
Speaker 1: son to do that, but you know that feeling that
Speaker 1: wonderful clean garage freely. I got it now, I got
Speaker 1: it now. Yep. All right, So let's get to a
Speaker 1: few things, including by the way, when we talk about
Speaker 1: red Bridge, this is how much work they do, right,
Speaker 1: There's like sixty something pages the most recent one that
Speaker 1: comes at it. So it's not just the stuff you're
Speaker 1: reading the paper. It's all the data, all the numbers
Speaker 1: that are after all of it, and coause I want
Speaker 1: to talk about something before we start to talk about
Speaker 1: numbers and poles and all the rest of it. I
Speaker 1: want to talk about focus groups, meaning the people you
Speaker 1: are talking to around the country. Clearly we know that
Speaker 1: something has changed. What are they saying about what has
Speaker 1: changed in the past couple of couple of months. Because
Speaker 1: I'm noticing in some of the deep dives here what
Speaker 1: used to be sort of fifty two forty eight becomes
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty becomes fifty two forty eight the other way.
Speaker 1: What are they saying about the past couple of months.
Speaker 6: It depends where you are.
Speaker 7: I mean, if you were in West Australia, maybe parts
Speaker 7: of New South Wales, definitely in South Australia, you know
Speaker 7: you were looking at the current government and you weren't
Speaker 7: happy with it, right, But you're looking, well, maybe there's
Speaker 7: a better option, and they're not really getting the better option,
Speaker 7: right because you know, at the moment I defined the
Speaker 7: campaign like the nineteen eighty six Mike Tyson fight with
Speaker 7: Trevor Berdwick, where basically you're waiting for Trevor to to
Speaker 7: land a blow you into the second round and it
Speaker 7: ain't lasted two.
Speaker 6: Rounds, right, Yeah, good point, right, And so that's what's.
Speaker 7: Going on right now, not getting any alternative from from
Speaker 7: an economic perspective. Yes, we go to Victoria, particularly Victoria,
Speaker 7: but also parts of the New Suppose again as well,
Speaker 7: and it gets pretty grim for labor.
Speaker 6: So there's a lot of nuance here.
Speaker 7: People are still very very i would say, angry at
Speaker 7: the labor brand in Victoria. It doesn't matter where we go,
Speaker 7: whether it's in Melbourne Regional Victoria, it's pretty bad.
Speaker 1: So it depends where you Yeah, I mean, are there
Speaker 1: places again, so let's let's let's speak specifically about those
Speaker 1: populous areas GISs of Wales, Victoria. Are there people who
Speaker 1: might have been either on the fence or lukeworm who
Speaker 1: are turning around saying Albert can't stand him or you know,
Speaker 1: I kind of like that in a couple, can't stand him.
Speaker 1: Are you hearing any any of that where people are
Speaker 1: starting to move into that, Oh okay, you're a definite
Speaker 1: yes or a definite no.
Speaker 7: Not really right, and so hence why at the moment
Speaker 7: it's tightened in favor of labor. But the vote on
Speaker 7: both sides is still very soft. So we could see
Speaker 7: a situation that one starton gets his campaign up and
Speaker 7: running and starts talking about the economy, then maybe we
Speaker 7: will see the numbers come back a bit.
Speaker 6: I still think it's going to be minority government some
Speaker 6: sort right now.
Speaker 7: If you were to force me to choose, if it
Speaker 7: was to be held today, it would be a labor
Speaker 7: minority government.
Speaker 6: But it's so tenuous it could flip within two weeks.
Speaker 1: All right, newspole has just dropped on the Australian newspaper.
Speaker 1: I know that the competitor, but let me tell you
Speaker 1: what their number is, fifty one to forty nine in
Speaker 1: favor of the coalition. The primary vote for the coalition
Speaker 1: now thirty nine percent. Remember they have a four in
Speaker 1: front of it. They win elections general normal elections. Thirty nine. Well,
Speaker 1: best they've been in a long time. Labor back to
Speaker 1: thirty one. One nation at seven percent. Now there are
Speaker 1: polls anywhere now the last election they got five percent
Speaker 1: one nation. Now it's seven in some poles. Nine pay attention.
Speaker 1: Greens haven't moved anywhere. Twelve percent better Prime Minister and
Speaker 1: easy fifty sorry forty five to Dutton's forty fifteen percent
Speaker 1: of people no idea. And again basically their analysis is
Speaker 1: worth reading at another point in time, Michael, you'd be
Speaker 1: happy that that's tomorrow's headline. Coalitions still in front after
Speaker 1: multiple weeks of people saying what's going on? What's going on?
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, there's that out in my mind that the
Speaker 5: Coalition has slowed over the last month, and that's reflected
Speaker 5: in the polls. But knowing the odd thing here or there,
Speaker 5: I look at Labor, and I think they've probably played
Speaker 5: their biggest card, which was their Medicare deal. I mean
Speaker 5: Medicare funning. That was the biggest card. I mean they've
Speaker 5: got they've got two cards they play. They'll play in
Speaker 5: this election. Number one, the Liberals are going to sell
Speaker 5: off Medicare, privatize it whatever whatever.
Speaker 1: I mean.
Speaker 5: Malcolm was doing that in two sixteen. As we'll remember
Speaker 5: at nine years on, it still hasn't happened. And the
Speaker 5: second card they play, as the second card they play,
Speaker 5: of course, is the secret Cuts. I've seen this card
Speaker 5: played in many, many times. It's a good one actually,
Speaker 5: because people fear the unknown, and the secret Liberal cuts
Speaker 5: is one where they've trotted out of the ad end
Speaker 5: state campaign here. They tried every few elections. So when
Speaker 5: Labor have for no real cards to play, there the
Speaker 5: two cards, and they're effective. I'm not sure the meny
Speaker 5: caare one will work this time because people don't like
Speaker 5: being conned and they know they were conned in sixteen.
Speaker 5: And the secret cuts. I think everyone realizes. The budgets
Speaker 5: in a shocking position. I mean Netdad is increasing two
Speaker 5: hundred billion in the next few years, So I don't
Speaker 5: know where Jim Chalmers gets all these figures from. He's
Speaker 5: put in a shaka. So I think the cab before
Speaker 5: the storm is the fact that the Coalition have kept
Speaker 5: most of their policies over the last month despite being goaded.
Speaker 5: And I think Darton is going to edge your head
Speaker 5: when he from Thursday onwards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, as I said Budget and Reply speech, which brings
Speaker 1: me to the question of who has the most pressure
Speaker 1: on them right now. I think it is frankly Peter
Speaker 1: Dunton in relation to Thursday, because we know the story
Speaker 1: in and around Charmers, right, Chalmers is literally telling people, oh, no,
Speaker 1: power prices are down by twenty five percent, and they're
Speaker 1: not down by twenty five percent. There's this artificial thing
Speaker 1: that the government's doing which feeds into inflation, which feeds
Speaker 1: into their arguments in and around in relation to say
Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank. Right, anyone actually paying attention, well, you
Speaker 1: know the fallacy of all of that. But obviously for
Speaker 1: Peter Duddon, the reason Thursday is such a big opportunity
Speaker 1: cause is because you've got thirty minutes, thirty minutes certainly
Speaker 1: here at sky and nears thirty thirty minutes over there
Speaker 1: on taxpayer telly where no one's going to interrupt you.
Speaker 1: It's not an interview, it's not a press conference. You've
Speaker 1: got your thirty minutes to have some big ideas. First
Speaker 1: year was nuclear power, Second was immigration and the foreign
Speaker 1: buyers stuff, right. Third, well it has to be this
Speaker 1: amount of money, this idea, some big stuff, because otherwise
Speaker 1: you can keep pointing to the binfire that is the
Speaker 1: other one. But unless you're promising to bring some water
Speaker 1: to put it out, well they're going to stick with
Speaker 1: the bin fire, aren't they.
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 7: I mean it's basically, you know, come Thursday, it does
Speaker 7: don't come out with a very significant package of economic
Speaker 7: reform that captures the hearts and minds of the sort
Speaker 7: of people that we're talking about now. These are you know,
Speaker 7: thirty something forty something year olds in the outer suburbs
Speaker 7: of particularly Sydney Melbourne who are feeling the pinch, not
Speaker 7: really happy with the current labor government, not really convinced
Speaker 7: about what the coalition has to offer. And if he's
Speaker 7: able to actually put forward a narrative that is digestible
Speaker 7: that it actually shakes the cage quite a lot in
Speaker 7: terms of, hey, this guy is going to actually really
Speaker 7: change the way this country functions.
Speaker 6: Then they'll start listening. And this is why Thursday is
Speaker 6: so important for it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got that feeling, Michael, that they're in a
Speaker 1: scenario where you shake the cage the right way, you
Speaker 1: turn fifty to fifty into fifty two forty eight your way,
Speaker 1: you shake the cage the wrong way, or obviously the
Speaker 1: hysterical interpretation of it, it ends up going fifty two
Speaker 1: forty eight the other way. Thursday, what's the threshold? What
Speaker 1: do you need? Because he's not going to stand there
Speaker 1: and be able to produce seven hundred page economic document.
Speaker 1: But whatever his version of that, that that you know,
Speaker 1: little pamphlet that they all walk around with with our
Speaker 1: economic plan, He's got to hold that up on Thursday,
Speaker 1: doesn't he.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Look, I'd like to say Charms has got more to lose,
Speaker 5: but I actually think Peter's got more to lose because
Speaker 5: DUTs and s DUTs his favorite to win the election. Now,
Speaker 5: he's the favorite in the betting market, in the polls,
Speaker 5: he's the book Peter Dutton is favorite to win the election.
Speaker 5: So you know, what's what's Jim going to say on
Speaker 5: Tuesday Night? Well, you know, I don't think he's a
Speaker 5: big performer.
Speaker 1: He cur't really talk.
Speaker 5: He's one hundred and fifty dollars energy rebate well, as
Speaker 5: people have been saying on skoy tonight, everyone knows he's
Speaker 5: giving them back a small proportion of the money that
Speaker 5: they've had to pay in increased bills. So energy is
Speaker 5: not really an election winner for Labor. And you'll notice
Speaker 5: Chris Bowen has disappeared from the national stage in the
Speaker 5: last month or so, so I think Peter Dutton has
Speaker 5: got more to lose because, as you say, the economic
Speaker 5: narrative and people need money. They want to see reform,
Speaker 5: they want to see change, they want to see relief,
Speaker 5: they want to see a pathway forward, and that hasn't
Speaker 5: quite frankly been a strong point of the coalitions over
Speaker 5: the last couple of years. They've kept their powder drive
Speaker 5: because it's very hard for an opposition when you never
Speaker 5: know what's happening with the budget. So after Cheers they
Speaker 5: will see the budget, there'll be in a much a
Speaker 5: better position on Thursday to frame an argument announce some
Speaker 5: policy detail. I think that's what he'll do, And as
Speaker 5: I said before, I think Darton's position will strengthen after Thursday.
Speaker 1: There's a couple of things inside your poll cost that
Speaker 1: I'm particularly fascinated by, And just in case there's a
Speaker 1: deal to publish the number somewhere else, I won't blow
Speaker 1: anyone's chance at that. But I remember reading in this
Speaker 1: poll a couple of poles ago that people who had
Speaker 1: a house with a mortgage were pretty positive in favor
Speaker 1: of the Liberal Party. Now a very clear majority for
Speaker 1: the Labor Party. Now. I know, yes, there has been
Speaker 1: one reduction in interest rates, but you would think that
Speaker 1: that belt is the group of people that are the
Speaker 1: outer suburban the whole strategy, all the rest of it here.
Speaker 1: Do you have any insight as to why that number
Speaker 1: hasn't just floated a little? But there's been a very
Speaker 1: different you know, the narrative has basically flipped exactly the
Speaker 1: opposite with the people who've had to pay the most
Speaker 1: over the past three years of Albert.
Speaker 7: Yeah, those numbers moving within that particular constituency is proof
Speaker 7: of just how volatile the situation is. So, you know,
Speaker 7: the numbers have gotten better for Labor in Western Australia,
Speaker 7: South Australia, parts of Western Sydney. But I'll go back
Speaker 7: to again, as I touched on earlier before, with Victoria.
Speaker 7: This is where I think, you know, we can do.
Speaker 7: We can publish a fifty one forty nine because news
Speaker 7: Polls is fifty one forty nine the other way. Victoria
Speaker 7: is a real big problem for the over party because
Speaker 7: we're looking.
Speaker 6: At the key seats track that we published through News Limited.
Speaker 7: Has Victoria, they are recording an eight percent swing against labor.
Speaker 6: Blimey across the board, right, So that's a significant problem.
Speaker 1: And it.
Speaker 7: Appears even with the numbers we've got now with the
Speaker 7: weaven detailed that in this recent publication, that is just
Speaker 7: getting worse every week. So the labor campaign's working everywhere
Speaker 7: except with Victoria's just going backwards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, which is extraordinary because look, I mean my view
Speaker 1: is that is that Allan is circling the drain. And
Speaker 1: I don't just mean that about UNI for her own time.
Speaker 1: It's like, look, you know that excellent report on sixty
Speaker 1: minutes where they went back, they went back on Allen
Speaker 1: and they looked right in the eye and they took
Speaker 1: the hang on, sorry, we got what you said, just
Speaker 1: to sort of get everyone off everyone's back after last time,
Speaker 1: what's happened in the six months since, let alone a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of series and stupid decisions, and even when
Speaker 1: they try to get a positive story up, as they
Speaker 1: did towards the end of last week. Oh, there's definitely
Speaker 1: going to be a train between the airport and the city. No,
Speaker 1: there's not. There's a memory of it, of understanding to
Speaker 1: have more meetings about it. All right, thinking again, you'll.
Speaker 7: Fall for it.
Speaker 1: Low information to all the rest of it here. But Michael,
Speaker 1: I'm fascinated again this Victoria question. Give people an idea
Speaker 1: if it is an eight percent swing in Victoria. I
Speaker 1: don't know whether you look. I don't want to set
Speaker 1: a test for you, but I'll do it anyway. How
Speaker 1: many seats change if it's eight percent.
Speaker 5: Well, because I've got a sheet in front of me,
Speaker 5: I continue. It's ten seats, which would beat my record
Speaker 5: of nine, which would beat my record of nine when
Speaker 5: I was president of ninety ninety. Not that it was
Speaker 5: the result was due to me, by those It was
Speaker 5: due to Andrew Peacocks.
Speaker 1: So that means they go government here sixty eight in
Speaker 1: one style, one state alone takes well no.
Speaker 5: No, no, two of those are teals. But it means
Speaker 5: that Dutton and Victoria alone goes from fifty seven to
Speaker 5: sixty seven.
Speaker 1: I think it's ten in Victoria.
Speaker 5: If it's an eight percent swing in Victoria, Peter Dutton
Speaker 5: will win an his own right. So at the minute
Speaker 5: I've got I've got Peter Dutton winning three in Victoria,
Speaker 5: which are which are aston which I think they're certain
Speaker 5: to win as one lost in the by election. Katie
Speaker 5: Allen will win Chisholm, and we'll win mcew and that's three.
Speaker 5: Bruce is on five percent, that's four, q Young's and
Speaker 5: two point two. That's five. Gold Sea's on three point three,
Speaker 5: that's six. And then you win under eight Hawk Kerngamote,
Speaker 5: Dunkley and Holt.
Speaker 1: So that's ten.
Speaker 5: So if causes right nine, I elbow the best thing
Speaker 5: Labor could do. By the way, if you know, as
Speaker 5: long as people don't repeat what I've said here and
Speaker 5: I just keep this to yourselves, the best thing the
Speaker 5: Laby Patty could do in Victoria is dumped just Ciner
Speaker 5: Allen as premier agree before the federal election. So if
Speaker 5: they dumped Allen and they brought in that deputy guy
Speaker 5: Ben Carroll, who's sort of you know, a poor man's
Speaker 5: version of Chris Min's. If they brought Carolyn, who doesn't
Speaker 5: like Andrews. Right, he didn't get on with Daniel Andrews.
Speaker 5: He doesn't like the suburban rail link this this, this
Speaker 5: train line to nowhere costing millions and millions. If he
Speaker 5: came in dumped suburban Railink, distance himself from the hard
Speaker 5: lockdowns under the Andrews government, said he's going to get
Speaker 5: that budget back outder control, then we wouldn't win ten
Speaker 5: seats or anything like that. That's the best thing Labour
Speaker 5: could do in Victoria's get rid of Allen. But I
Speaker 5: don't think they're going to. And let's hope if she
Speaker 5: stays there, flying stays a sil election.
Speaker 1: And just I'm not going to remember when you handed
Speaker 1: in your homework and teachers used to be old school
Speaker 1: and they used to write show working. You know, I'm
Speaker 1: not going to write that on yours. I'm going to
Speaker 1: say great working, great working. God's going to respond in
Speaker 1: a moment or two time quid break back with more
Speaker 1: here on Paul Murray Life started the Race Sunday night.
Speaker 1: I love this night, I really do. If you just
Speaker 1: join us, hey, well, where you've been right, anyway, still
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Newsport's just dropped fifty one forty nine in
Speaker 1: favor of the Coalition, putting to bed some of the
Speaker 1: fears that everything had fallen apart in the past few weeks. However,
Speaker 1: fifty one to forty nine margin nevera It could be
Speaker 1: nine the other way for the blokes who get down
Speaker 1: into the detail and there's plenty of it to scratch
Speaker 1: around in are the blokes who know the data and
Speaker 1: know how it is shaped by the political campaigns. Because
Speaker 1: Samorus is from Redbridge, Michael Croe go well legend here
Speaker 1: on Palmurray Live, and of course the Liberal Party in Victoria. Now, guys,
Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you this question, and it is
Speaker 1: about budgets, because there's a great myth that deliver a
Speaker 1: budget and your numbers change. Right. Certainly for this government
Speaker 1: there was no budget bounce even after the tax cut,
Speaker 1: staff and power stuff last time. Maybe a little stemming
Speaker 1: of bleeding, but bleeding came back because the fundamentals were wrong.
Speaker 1: Pretty much the same of course for the Libs during
Speaker 1: THEIRS as well. But then there's the COVID stuff that
Speaker 1: makes things all pretty weird, and you've got to go
Speaker 1: way back into the world of Howard maybe for a
Speaker 1: different sign. So I'm not entirely sure that there is
Speaker 1: budget bouncers and all of that, and certainly not for
Speaker 1: this government potentially, as we've discussed for the opposition about
Speaker 1: their alternative financial situation. But there is a question at
Speaker 1: the heart of this though, which is that Peter Dutton,
Speaker 1: of course is going to run with just sit at Amber,
Speaker 1: jimper Price, with Jane Hume, with Angus Taylor on they
Speaker 1: reduced the size of government agenda. Now, of course that
Speaker 1: works when you're in a federal budget deficit. However, the
Speaker 1: obvious interpretation is cut cut cut, cut, cut, cut, cut, cut,
Speaker 1: cart uga booger music and all of that that plays
Speaker 1: the next of the while. So, because are you the
Speaker 1: type of person tell me about this this philosophical thing.
Speaker 1: Do people believe the countries peddling money up against the
Speaker 1: wall and therefore needs to pull back a beer or
Speaker 1: it's like as soon as you take a dollar away
Speaker 1: from someone, they know, are you buggers? Yeah.
Speaker 7: Look, it's a problem for the coalition, you know, when
Speaker 7: they announced the cuts to the public service. It's a
Speaker 7: problem because when I as a campaigner look at that announcement,
Speaker 7: I go, okay, So they didn't put a ring fence
Speaker 7: around that, they didn't describe who who's going to get rich?
Speaker 7: So then okay, follows on the labor camp, I'd go, okay,
Speaker 7: let me pull out all the seats that have got
Speaker 7: a lot of public servants in the federal public service
Speaker 7: calum of public servants and run a ski campaign. And
Speaker 7: that's exactly what I'll be doing. And so that's Chisholm right,
Speaker 7: that's that's a lot of like beat along. There's I
Speaker 7: can go through all the seats, lots of the tail seats,
Speaker 7: and so I think it was a strategic mistake to basically.
Speaker 1: Lead with that.
Speaker 7: I would have back ended it. You know, when they
Speaker 7: pushed me where you're going to get your savings from,
Speaker 7: I would have done a deliver with our dropped it. Yeah,
Speaker 7: we're going to cut some some of the politic service.
Speaker 7: Some of the fat cats in.
Speaker 1: Camera said, because they're green seats, they're green and labor seats,
Speaker 1: you you're never going close. But as soon as and
Speaker 1: again they've started this up today, you know, oh Indy,
Speaker 1: I s workers and you know, so we'll see where
Speaker 1: this goes. The other one here Michael is, I want
Speaker 1: to show you a John Black, former Labor senator, really
Speaker 1: interesting analysis and I don't know where he's come from
Speaker 1: in terms of profile around this, but Jeezu's on at
Speaker 1: this election. He's been right there on the data about
Speaker 1: how fifty to fifty and then how minority all the
Speaker 1: rest of it, right, but he's added some extra data
Speaker 1: that gives us this idea. Basically, we all know the
Speaker 1: primary vot'es low. Certainly, if it's thirty nine percent, it's
Speaker 1: very good for the Libs. But have a look at this.
Speaker 1: Blue is the number of seats that have been one
Speaker 1: on primary votes over the years, and sorry are the
Speaker 1: ones that have been one with I should say preferences.
Speaker 1: And then the orange ones are the ones that they
Speaker 1: have won because they've got more than fifty percent of
Speaker 1: the vote. Now that has changed from in two thousand
Speaker 1: and four, eighty nine seats they want on their own
Speaker 1: at this election. Of the polling is the way it is,
Speaker 1: they'll get three. There are three joints in the country
Speaker 1: that will have a fifty to fifty split, which brings
Speaker 1: us to the conversation abound preferences. Now again we know
Speaker 1: that basically add Labour's number with the Greens. That's where
Speaker 1: you're going to get roughly where they are before you
Speaker 1: start getting to left leaning independence. You take the coalition number,
Speaker 1: but can you fully add the one nation number?
Speaker 6: No?
Speaker 1: Why of course? Previously it goes fifty to fifty in
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. I'm a broken record on this. But in
Speaker 1: two thousand and nineteen, if it goes like seventy thirty,
Speaker 1: well then guess what you can now start to add
Speaker 1: that number on top of the number. And if you're
Speaker 1: at thirty nine or forty or forty one and you've
Speaker 1: got five six seven, well then that gets you obviously
Speaker 1: a whole lot closer to the endgame here. I think
Speaker 1: we may have mentioned it last week, and apologies if
Speaker 1: I didn't get to it, But Michael, I don't think
Speaker 1: there's enough chat about that one nation vote and about
Speaker 1: that one nation vote in and around the polls. We
Speaker 1: know that's a center right vote. We know sometimes it's
Speaker 1: sead of some old school Labour people who don't like
Speaker 1: how woke things have gone. But how important is it?
Speaker 1: And again you've got to balance right. You want to
Speaker 1: hope Pauline in Queensland, but maybe not in Victoria, because
Speaker 1: we know how the lefties interpret that. Personally, I'd tager
Speaker 1: anywhere in the country.
Speaker 5: But your thoughts, Yeah, well, look, I think I think
Speaker 5: in this election conservative voters on the right and that
Speaker 5: that is trumfort of Patriots, One Nation, Liberal Democrats, etc.
Speaker 5: I think my sense is their voters are going to
Speaker 5: be a lot more careful with their preferences, and the
Speaker 5: Coalition are going to win a lot more of their
Speaker 5: preferences than they have in other elections because the right
Speaker 5: coalesce behind Dutton and they low the alban easy for
Speaker 5: a whole lot of reasons. Secondly to John Black's point,
Speaker 5: and you know, John Black is a very serious commentator,
Speaker 5: by the way, and I'll never forget a magnificent article
Speaker 5: right after the nineteen election explaining in detail how and
Speaker 5: what Scott Morrison won that election.
Speaker 1: He was in the fin Review. But commentator and this is.
Speaker 5: Well, no, he's he's a very good, very good writer,
Speaker 5: very good commentator. The point he is making is this, Yeah,
Speaker 5: the percentage of vote for the major parties has gone
Speaker 5: down dramatically in recent years. Contrasts that to America, by
Speaker 5: the way, mate, where in the presidential election ninety eight
Speaker 5: percent of voters voted for other Republicans of the Democrats.
Speaker 5: And there are different reasons for that, but here here
Speaker 5: it's closing on seventy down from high eighties. As John
Speaker 5: Black points out, one of the reasons for that is
Speaker 5: and I blame the hard left for that. In Australia.
Speaker 5: The hard left denigrate Australia. They denigrate the major parties,
Speaker 5: the Greens denigrate the Labor Party, they denigrate the Liberal Party.
Speaker 5: There is a there's no sense of optimism in Australia
Speaker 5: like there is an America.
Speaker 1: Made good point. Thank you lads to do appreciate it.
Speaker 1: I finally there was another hour. But then these books
Speaker 1: will go. Okay, enough, Paul, we're tired. Thank you lads
Speaker 1: to appreciate It'll see you again next week. We'll see
Speaker 1: you tomorrow night for more Paul Murray Life Tonner