WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 23 March

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<v Speaker 1>From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>a modern misconception of the husky gens is that this

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<v Speaker 1>just happens overnight. No, No, this only happens when you commit.

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<v Speaker 1>And I committed every single day, certainly of high school

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<v Speaker 1>Sausage roll, cheese twists, chocolate moves all day, every day

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<v Speaker 1>and look at the result. Look at my body is

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<v Speaker 1>a temple, you know, one of those mind ones right

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<v Speaker 1>at the back of the jungle. That's mine. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>We've got a lot to get to tonight, including Sunday

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<v Speaker 1>Nights hardcore night for politics. This is when we get

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<v Speaker 1>right into it, all the detail they'll be talking about

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<v Speaker 1>for the next week or so when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>the state of the race. Yeah, we've got to get

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<v Speaker 1>it ready for the budget can Honestly, the spending is ludicrous.

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<v Speaker 1>They want a gold Star for twenty five dollars a

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<v Speaker 1>months off your power bill, fit income and how good.

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<v Speaker 1>Oscar Perstoria is the next dozy, looking like he's on

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<v Speaker 1>his way to big success in Formula one. He won

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<v Speaker 1>in China today, figures cross he'll be able to get

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<v Speaker 1>over Lando and be the world champion by the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. All right. Now, as we know, the

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<v Speaker 1>greatest Prime minister of all time, he's not focused on

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<v Speaker 1>upgrades for himself when it comes to personal travel. He's

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<v Speaker 1>not interested in making sure that he's got a multimillion

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<v Speaker 1>dollar retirement plan just in case you the electorate, don't

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<v Speaker 1>give him seventeen terms as prime minister. No. No, he's

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<v Speaker 1>a person who is focused, like us, on the number

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<v Speaker 1>one issue in the country.

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<v Speaker 2>A plan to address cost of living. Take pressure off

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<v Speaker 2>cost of living, pressure off the cost of living, the

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<v Speaker 2>cost of living, cost of living, cost of living, relief

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<v Speaker 2>downward pressure on cost of living.

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<v Speaker 1>And I don't know about you, but you know ourbonomics

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<v Speaker 1>has worked, hasn't it. I mean he promised at the

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<v Speaker 1>start of the last campaign that everything can be cheaper.

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<v Speaker 1>And I don't know about you. I mean everything's gone

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<v Speaker 1>down since election. I know that's right. That's just Australian's

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<v Speaker 1>confidence and trust in government. Now we also know today

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<v Speaker 1>about just who was being taken care of and focused today.

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<v Speaker 1>The real priority when it comes to cost of living

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<v Speaker 1>was it small business? Where today you could read a

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<v Speaker 1>story that ossie couples who run small businesses they've had

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<v Speaker 1>to go without money to keep their own businesses afloat.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, self employed small business owners are paying themselves

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<v Speaker 1>less at the same time as inflation to smash their

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<v Speaker 1>buying power, resulting in an eighteen percent collapse in real

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<v Speaker 1>income for somebody who owns a small business since Labor

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<v Speaker 1>took office. The decline comes as food prices, energy insurance,

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<v Speaker 1>rent and wage increases of all fueled a surge in

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<v Speaker 1>hospitality businesses, which have shuttered at an our nine point

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<v Speaker 1>three percent rate in February. That is, of all of

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<v Speaker 1>the businesses, almost ten percent in small business, particularly focused

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<v Speaker 1>in and around restaurants they've closed on. It wasn't their

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<v Speaker 1>cost of living? What about the effects that the cost

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<v Speaker 1>living crisis has had on poorer and vulnerable Australians. Was

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<v Speaker 1>that the focus is that what we're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>having a national conversation about in the next few days. Well, No,

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<v Speaker 1>even though there's an article that you could read today,

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<v Speaker 1>available online, available in the newspapers that shows the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of living crunch has actually resulted in an increase in

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<v Speaker 1>child neglect. Australia's cost living crisis has been linked to

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<v Speaker 1>a record three hundred and seven and twenty two child

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<v Speaker 1>abuse and neglect notifications. Can I just repeat that number,

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred and seven thousand neglect notifications. That's up twelve

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<v Speaker 1>percent over the past two years. Why inflation difficult is

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to somewhere to live, either the one

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<v Speaker 1>that you're renting or the one that you were paying for. No, no, no,

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<v Speaker 1>no no. Today the Prime Minister was out there fighting

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<v Speaker 1>for the cost of living of lazy public servants. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>not all public servants are lazy, but push there's an

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<v Speaker 1>awful lot of them that are. This is after, of

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<v Speaker 1>course he's already hired an extra thirty nine thousand of them.

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<v Speaker 1>And as we know, the Coalition is planning to bring

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<v Speaker 1>the public sector back to pre COVID levels. Oh e,

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to trim some of the fat. They think

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<v Speaker 1>that Australia does not need an extra forty thousand public

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<v Speaker 1>servants doing the jobs on top of the hundreds of

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<v Speaker 1>thousands that already cost us billions and billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 1>each in every year. In fact, here is the shadow

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<v Speaker 1>Finance spokesperson whom, if don't becomes Prime Minister, will be

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<v Speaker 1>in charge of the public service.

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<v Speaker 3>We think that the thirty six thousand public servants that

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<v Speaker 3>have been brought on haven't demonstrated that the improvements to

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<v Speaker 3>the put to the services to the public have been corresponding.

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<v Speaker 3>We think we can bring it back down to levels

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<v Speaker 3>that were at the end of COVID, not the beginning

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<v Speaker 3>of COVID, I might add at the end of COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>And part of what they want to do is to

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<v Speaker 1>get public servants to go back to the office that

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<v Speaker 1>is already paid for by the tax. You see, not

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<v Speaker 1>just because they're nasty and evil, but they want people

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<v Speaker 1>to go back so that all the cafes, the restaurants,

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<v Speaker 1>all of the businesses, the cleanings, all the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>it that actually service those buildings will be able to

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<v Speaker 1>remain employed on and over. The Prime Minister has come

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<v Speaker 1>out today and his focus while Grimjim's twenty five dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a month power nonsense is what they want to distract

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<v Speaker 1>you with today, he says that getting more public servants

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<v Speaker 1>than ever before to stay working at home will help

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<v Speaker 1>them with the cost of living. You see. One of

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<v Speaker 1>the reasons why a public servant doesn't have to go

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<v Speaker 1>back to the office that we're already paying for is

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<v Speaker 1>because they would have to use some of their own

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<v Speaker 1>money to get to work, just like every other person

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<v Speaker 1>who has to get themselves to work, let alone a

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<v Speaker 1>small business who of course is going backwards out of

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<v Speaker 1>this government. But sh nothing to see here. Here's the

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister picking the cushy life of a public servant

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<v Speaker 1>over small business and over kids in neglect today because

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<v Speaker 1>this is what he chose to talk about.

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<v Speaker 2>Working from home has enabled them to work full time

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<v Speaker 2>and therefore it has increased workforce participation.

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<v Speaker 1>This guy, this guy. Now, after the budget this week,

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<v Speaker 1>the expectation is the election could be called as early

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<v Speaker 1>as next weekend. We will have Peter Dutton at a

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<v Speaker 1>special pub test on the following Monday, so not this

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<v Speaker 1>but next Monday in his electorate. I want you to

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<v Speaker 1>check out the questions of people have got because we've

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<v Speaker 1>got a nice full room and people got plenty of

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<v Speaker 1>questions for the alternative prime minister. Of course, the media

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<v Speaker 1>between now and then will do everything they can to

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<v Speaker 1>boost the current Prime Minister, trying to pretend you that

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<v Speaker 1>everything is better, despite the fact that while every indiccy

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<v Speaker 1>from child abuse to small businesses have shown that this

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<v Speaker 1>joint has gone backwards fast under the current mob. Which

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<v Speaker 1>brings us to the buyoffs that are planned for this week.

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<v Speaker 1>Forget what they promised three years ago that cost living

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<v Speaker 1>would be cheaper. No, no, no, no, no, the government now,

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<v Speaker 1>so we'll just hand out billions more on top of

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<v Speaker 1>the billions already promised. Now, as you know, labor is

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<v Speaker 1>the side of politics that decided to get rid of

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<v Speaker 1>the energy system that worked, and it worked for decades because,

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<v Speaker 1>of course it was powered by coal. Evil, awful, nasty coal.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the type of stuff that the Ukraine has

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<v Speaker 1>been asking us to send them to help power their

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<v Speaker 1>country in a time of war. No, no, we're better

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<v Speaker 1>than that. So we decided to blow up what worked

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<v Speaker 1>before we had spent the hundreds of billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 1>to replace it with what now we know does not.

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<v Speaker 1>We also know that this is the government that, in

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<v Speaker 1>one of their first acts as government, decided to have

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<v Speaker 1>everyone stand around as they signed a piece of paper

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<v Speaker 1>saying that we will now set a law in this

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<v Speaker 1>country that Australia will cut forty three percent of one

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the world's emissions, and we will in part

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<v Speaker 1>do it with more than eighty percent renewable energy. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>they say that it's the cheapest form of energy, and

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<v Speaker 1>it may it will be in thirty years time, but

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<v Speaker 1>right now it has to be built. And as you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's tens of thousands of solar panels each and every day.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, made by slave labor in China, but sh

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<v Speaker 1>wind farms hundreds of thousands of those that will be needed,

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<v Speaker 1>both onshore offshore. Bug of the birds. Who cares about

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<v Speaker 1>the dolphins? And I know we must destroy the earth

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<v Speaker 1>in order to save the atmosphere, And all of this

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<v Speaker 1>was apparently going to cut your power bills. Now, I

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<v Speaker 1>won't play the same thing that we've played hundreds of

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<v Speaker 1>times since the last election. But you remember the promise

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<v Speaker 1>to seventy five teeth, eventy five teeth, eventy five teeth

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<v Speaker 1>aventy five. That was the promise that basically, take your

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<v Speaker 1>power bill from May of twenty twenty two compared to

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<v Speaker 1>the one in May or right now, what at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of March April of twenty twenty five, and it'll

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<v Speaker 1>be two hundred and seventy five dollars cheaper. Why because

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<v Speaker 1>we've moved from that evil, awful coal and we've replaced

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<v Speaker 1>it with all the stuff that is so much cheaper.

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<v Speaker 1>The only problem is the cost of transition the CSIO

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<v Speaker 1>once told us was trillion dollars, but now they say

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<v Speaker 1>it's half a trillion dollars. But apparently we all know

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<v Speaker 1>that it's a little higher than that, and of course

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<v Speaker 1>it has all of the destruction that goes with it.

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<v Speaker 1>But because they have failed to deliver on that promise,

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<v Speaker 1>and again I say it for the unpdeenth time, Tony

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<v Speaker 1>Abbott promised in twenty thirteen to stop the boats if

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<v Speaker 1>he had not stopped the boats, but in fact more

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<v Speaker 1>boats were turning up by twenty sixteen, unless, of course

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<v Speaker 1>the ghost had already knifed him. What do you think

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<v Speaker 1>the reaction would have been of the Camber Press gallery.

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<v Speaker 1>Apparently this promise just doesn't matter. It's never mattered to

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<v Speaker 1>them because it was lipstick on the pig. It's exactly

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<v Speaker 1>the same policy that Bill Shorten was defeated in with

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and nineteen. But in twenty twenty two, if

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<v Speaker 1>we tell everyone they're going to get a power bill cut,

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<v Speaker 1>they'll vote for it, and they did so. They either

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<v Speaker 1>screwed up or they lied, and I think it's pretty

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<v Speaker 1>obvious that they lied right and twelve months ago when

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<v Speaker 1>they were delivering what they then thought would be final

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<v Speaker 1>budget ahead of what they were planning. Could be an

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<v Speaker 1>early election as soon as the back half of last year,

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<v Speaker 1>but definitely not as late this year. But we all

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<v Speaker 1>know that the storms have cost the federal budget one

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<v Speaker 1>point two billion dollars. Okay Radio. They made a promise,

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<v Speaker 1>and that promise was that they would pay three hundred

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<v Speaker 1>dollars off everyone's power bill, and then you start doing

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<v Speaker 1>the sums. Well, of course, most people pay their power

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<v Speaker 1>bills quarterly, so that was like seven hundred and seventy

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<v Speaker 1>five dollars, and then if you divide that between the

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<v Speaker 1>number of months that are in a quarter, it's twenty

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<v Speaker 1>five dollars twenty five dollars a month. And there's no

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<v Speaker 1>means testing, meaning the biggest mansion with the most cashed

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<v Speaker 1>up person in Australia they got the same relief as

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<v Speaker 1>somebody that was on the bones of their backside in

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<v Speaker 1>a shack in the bush, because you could be bothered

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<v Speaker 1>administering this policy. What of course they wanted was a

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<v Speaker 1>multi billion dollar slogan for an election that a tax

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<v Speaker 1>cut for every Australian, Sure, the people who needed it.

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<v Speaker 1>It was fourti dollars a week, and a power bill

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<v Speaker 1>cut for every Australian for those who needed it again

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<v Speaker 1>just twenty five dollars a month. All of this costs

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<v Speaker 1>multiple billions of dollars, and they don't give you the money.

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<v Speaker 1>They pay the power bills of the power companies that

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<v Speaker 1>just happened to, in many cases be the same companies

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<v Speaker 1>that are getting government subsidies to spend the hundreds of

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<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars to build the new electricity grid that

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<v Speaker 1>fingers cross one day will be cheaper than what currently works.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you've been paying any attention to the inconsistencies

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<v Speaker 1>in this then you, of course are the problem. We

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<v Speaker 1>are the climate deniers. Of course, I've never denied that

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<v Speaker 1>if you have seven eight billion people on the planet,

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<v Speaker 1>multiple industrial revolutions, that you're probably going to do something

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<v Speaker 1>to the natural ecosystem. And certainly Australia is part of

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<v Speaker 1>a globe and needs to do it's bit. But if

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<v Speaker 1>we're one percent of the world's problem, one percent of

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<v Speaker 1>the world's problem, we should look to countries like say

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<v Speaker 1>China that are thirty something percent of the problem. When

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<v Speaker 1>do they have to get to net zero twenty fifty

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<v Speaker 1>like us on a hotel twenty sixty. The United States

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<v Speaker 1>has done the hokey pokey both being out and then

0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:09.280
<v Speaker 1>in and then out and then in of the Paris Agreement,

0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:13.319
<v Speaker 1>and they're what twenty something percent, so they're not agreeing

0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:17.439
<v Speaker 1>to this system. And then there's the third world developing countries,

0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:20.080
<v Speaker 1>the Global South, a's the lefties like to call them.

0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.319
<v Speaker 1>They don't have to apply to this either. Then there's India,

0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.320
<v Speaker 1>then there's Russia, and countries like China get to call

0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:29.240
<v Speaker 1>themselves developing countries. So again, despite the fact they've got

0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 1>a space station and have held the Olympics twice this century, No, no, no, no,

0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:39.200
<v Speaker 1>they must be treated like the country like a country

0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 1>in Africa that can't keep its head above water. Of course,

0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:45.360
<v Speaker 1>so Australia signs the piece of paper and continues on

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:48.040
<v Speaker 1>a path despite the fact that wha more than half,

0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.400
<v Speaker 1>we're kind of getting our close to two thirds, but

0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.000
<v Speaker 1>let's say over half of the planet is not playing

0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.839
<v Speaker 1>the same game that we're playing. But this government, of

0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:58.920
<v Speaker 1>course says that there is a moral need for us

0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:00.920
<v Speaker 1>to do this, So they can go off and either

0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:04.360
<v Speaker 1>go to climate conferences or spend hundreds of millions of

0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:07.480
<v Speaker 1>dollars for US to host climate conferences because you see,

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 1>they don't care because they're the ones that have got

0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.840
<v Speaker 1>three pay rises, promises on six hundred grand ministers on

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 1>four hundred thousand dollars. Most of the people in charge

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:17.840
<v Speaker 1>of the businesses or spinning for the businesses, or the

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.760
<v Speaker 1>ones setting the rules, they've got hundreds of thousands of

0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:24.360
<v Speaker 1>dollars a year. Oh small business, whatever, But can I

0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 1>have a lard a place or how's everything going? Oh

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.880
<v Speaker 1>that's a shame, isn't it. Well, today they are going

0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.959
<v Speaker 1>to extend the system that has already been there for

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:34.560
<v Speaker 1>the past twelve months and they're going to extend it

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:38.440
<v Speaker 1>for another six months, which means the media called this

0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.280
<v Speaker 1>out for what it is, right, twenty five bucks a

0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 1>month on No, the government made an announcement, so you

0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:47.000
<v Speaker 1>need to have the biggest number possible and did in

0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:50.720
<v Speaker 1>the media love this one to day, every Sydney household

0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.600
<v Speaker 1>will receive a further one hundred and fifty dollars off

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.640
<v Speaker 1>their power bills. Latest offering one hundred and fifty dollars

0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:57.280
<v Speaker 1>off power bill.

0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 4>Now the one hundred and fifty dollars rebate, so it'll

0:13:59.880 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 4>be a one hundred and fifty dollars rebate and.

0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:04.720
<v Speaker 5>Your major pledge by the federal government to bring down

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:06.439
<v Speaker 5>soaring energy prices.

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.800
<v Speaker 2>One hundred and fifty dollars rebate applied to their power bills.

0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 1>So you see, they think you're so stupid that they've

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:16.400
<v Speaker 1>cut your power bill by three hundred dollars in the

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:18.120
<v Speaker 1>past twelve months, and now it's going to be an

0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.720
<v Speaker 1>extra one hundred and fifty So they've technically brought power

0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 1>down by four hundred and fifty bucks. Right, No, twenty

0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 1>five dollars are quarter for multiple quarters that go to

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:29.880
<v Speaker 1>a year, and now they're going to push it through

0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 1>for another six months. So the Prime Minister spins it

0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 1>like this.

0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 2>And it follows the seventy five dollars, another seventy five,

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 2>another seventy five, and another seventy five that they've received

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:43.640
<v Speaker 2>this year.

0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 1>Twenty five, twenty five, twenty five, twenty five. There's lots

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 1>of ways you can cut the number, but the reality

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 1>is people either pay a quarterly bill or they pay

0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:55.320
<v Speaker 1>a monthly bill. But either way, seventy five dollars paid

0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.040
<v Speaker 1>to the power company to not pass on the increases.

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.320
<v Speaker 1>It's kind of the whole point. It also creates about

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:05.080
<v Speaker 1>zero point five percent reduction in the overall number when

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 1>it comes to inflation. Now, as you know, inflation, if

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 1>it is between two and three percent, the preserved Bank's fine.

0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 1>If it's above three percent, well they keep interest rates high.

0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:18.000
<v Speaker 1>And interest rates have gone up twelve times under this government.

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.120
<v Speaker 1>Oh sorry, they've come down once since, saving you a

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:24.360
<v Speaker 1>grand total of one hundred bucks, when it's already cost

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:26.520
<v Speaker 1>you tens of thousands of dollars extra to pay off

0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:29.240
<v Speaker 1>your home under this mob. And now they again think

0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.520
<v Speaker 1>you're so stupid that you won't notice that the power

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 1>bill that I told you to keep on the fridge

0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:36.840
<v Speaker 1>from the last election, and if it was two hundred

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 1>and seventy five dollars lower than that number, then guess

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 1>what you should vote? Labor. Well, the reality is that,

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 1>of course it's many hundreds of dollars. In fact, the

0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars or thousands of dollars higher if you

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:51.280
<v Speaker 1>happen to be in a small business. But Jim Chalmers

0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.720
<v Speaker 1>doesn't think that you even pay attention to the bills

0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 1>that you pay. He thinks you've got some sort of

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.000
<v Speaker 1>autopay and you'll never really notice, they think that you'll

0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 1>fall for the nonsense of where you have helped people

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 1>four hundred and fifty dollars with their power bills when

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.240
<v Speaker 1>the actual thing is twenty five dollars a month and

0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:08.160
<v Speaker 1>the cost of power has gone up way more than

0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:10.880
<v Speaker 1>twenty five dollars a month since this mob came to power.

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 1>But Jim charmers again, I repeat, he thinks you aren't

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.440
<v Speaker 1>even paying attention to your own bills, because what about

0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:19.200
<v Speaker 1>this garbage he was spraying around today.

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.920
<v Speaker 5>Don't forget, in the last year to December and the

0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:26.840
<v Speaker 5>official inflation data, electricity prices went down by twenty five percent.

0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:31.920
<v Speaker 1>And you know what that reduction is. That reduction is

0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:35.280
<v Speaker 1>the amount that the government has been paying the power bills.

0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:38.560
<v Speaker 1>So don't forget power bills are coming down. But hang on,

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:41.280
<v Speaker 1>aren't you paying the power bills not to pass on

0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 1>some of the increase? Sh nobody's going to notice he's

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:49.520
<v Speaker 1>claiming power bills are going down when what was that

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.120
<v Speaker 1>story that was in that far right wing publication, the

0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:57.360
<v Speaker 1>Sidony Molner Huru. In fact, from July, power bills are

0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:00.200
<v Speaker 1>expected to go up by two hundred dollars. This is

0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:02.280
<v Speaker 1>on top of the ones that went up last year

0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.080
<v Speaker 1>or the year before or the year before that. They

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.919
<v Speaker 1>do think you're that stupid. I certainly hope that the

0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:12.160
<v Speaker 1>election will remind them. No, well now, and you can't

0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:16.560
<v Speaker 1>buy me off with twenty five dollars a month, which

0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:18.639
<v Speaker 1>brings me to another thing to remind you, please be

0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:21.840
<v Speaker 1>here on Tuesday night. Tuesday night, nine thirty astraight in

0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.600
<v Speaker 1>eastern day light time eight thirty in Queensland is when

0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 1>we are going to have our budget show. Now, I've

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.640
<v Speaker 1>done these for fifteen years, and you know that over

0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:34.239
<v Speaker 1>fifteen years, generally speaking, there's the reaction that comes out

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:36.160
<v Speaker 1>of camera, and that's fine. They've sat around all day

0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.720
<v Speaker 1>pretending that they're studying an exam. I've been in those rooms.

0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.080
<v Speaker 1>They're not studying an exam. There's double checking what everyone

0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.200
<v Speaker 1>else is going to report. And generally speaking, if it's

0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:49.080
<v Speaker 1>a labor government, they take whatever numbers they give and

0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:54.200
<v Speaker 1>they say completely fine, there's no suspicion about the numbers whatsoever.

0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:57.119
<v Speaker 1>There of course will be no issue whatsoever that a

0:17:57.160 --> 0:17:59.800
<v Speaker 1>government that claimed they were better than the Liberal Party

0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:04.120
<v Speaker 1>they went from deficit to surplus surplus. But of course

0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:06.359
<v Speaker 1>we know now that it is going to go back

0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:12.359
<v Speaker 1>into deficits. And remember, every single dollar in deficit is

0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.520
<v Speaker 1>added to every previous deficit of every government in the

0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:19.120
<v Speaker 1>history of this country. And certainly we know that debt

0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:21.760
<v Speaker 1>was way down, if not completely gone, under Howard. So

0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:26.119
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about every budget deficit of Rudd, of Gillard,

0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 1>of Rudd, of Abbot, of Turbul, of Morrison, and now

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:39.360
<v Speaker 1>of Albaneze. In fact, the is some expectation that there

0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:42.160
<v Speaker 1>is going to end up being as high as twenty

0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:44.520
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars when it comes to the budget deficit. Now

0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:45.920
<v Speaker 1>I think that's just a bit of spin and it

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:48.720
<v Speaker 1>will probably end up being seven billions, so therefore it's

0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 1>not as bad as twenty Well, every dollar in deficit

0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:53.639
<v Speaker 1>is added to every other previous one, So if you've

0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:55.280
<v Speaker 1>got a trillion dollars worth of debt, it'll be a

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:59.480
<v Speaker 1>trillion and twenty billion dollars worth of debt. Jim Chalmers

0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:02.440
<v Speaker 1>fourth budget it will feature an underlying deficit of about

0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:06.080
<v Speaker 1>twenty billion, but once these off budget items are properly

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.240
<v Speaker 1>accounted for, it the real deficit is almost double. Remember

0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:11.880
<v Speaker 1>I've told you about that before, that there's a whole

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.879
<v Speaker 1>bunch of stuff that they will have in those budget documents,

0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 1>and then there's a whole bunch of staff that they

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:21.160
<v Speaker 1>don't put in those budget documents despite the fact that

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:25.080
<v Speaker 1>they still are borrowing money from overseas to pay for them.

0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 1>So the actual increase in the deficit will not be

0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:31.960
<v Speaker 1>five billion, will not be ten billion, but will probably

0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>be one hundred billion dollars. According again to the Financial Review,

0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:39.919
<v Speaker 1>who've kept a pretty strong on our eye on all

0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 1>of this, they claim there is off budget spending of

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:47.080
<v Speaker 1>one hundred billion dollars by this government. So there's all

0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:48.920
<v Speaker 1>the money that they're going to tell us about on Tuesday,

0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:50.760
<v Speaker 1>and then there's all the money they're hiding from you,

0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:53.720
<v Speaker 1>which could be one hundred billion dollars extra. This is

0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:57.760
<v Speaker 1>the stuff that is an investment, but the reality is

0:19:57.800 --> 0:20:01.240
<v Speaker 1>that it's all borrow money, and borrow money will be

0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:06.160
<v Speaker 1>part of the Australian economic story for the next one, two, three,

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:11.160
<v Speaker 1>four decades. The Prime Minister wants to talk about seventy

0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:13.520
<v Speaker 1>five dollars, seventy five dollars, seventy five dollars when he's

0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:18.879
<v Speaker 1>looking back at what eighteen months of trying to fool

0:20:18.880 --> 0:20:22.800
<v Speaker 1>people when it comes to their budget savings from power

0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:25.639
<v Speaker 1>bills that are already going up. That then, of course

0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:28.479
<v Speaker 1>fakes an inflation number that they then turn around and

0:20:28.600 --> 0:20:31.040
<v Speaker 1>use to tell the Reserve Bank you must cut interest rates,

0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:34.880
<v Speaker 1>when the actual reality is that if Australia wasn't spending

0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 1>as much money as it is on public servants, then

0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:40.399
<v Speaker 1>we would be in a recession. The only way that

0:20:40.440 --> 0:20:42.639
<v Speaker 1>our country is slightly moving forward is because of the

0:20:42.640 --> 0:20:45.879
<v Speaker 1>amount of government money that is being spent, including this

0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:49.760
<v Speaker 1>one hundred billion dollars that's off budget. And if you

0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:51.520
<v Speaker 1>think again, I'm just making up this number that we're

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:52.960
<v Speaker 1>going to be in a budget deficit for the next

0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:56.320
<v Speaker 1>forty years. Yet again, I show you the Intergenerational Report

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.920
<v Speaker 1>produced by Jim Charmers buy the same people who will

0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:02.000
<v Speaker 1>make the budget on Tuesday. Every one of those lines

0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:05.120
<v Speaker 1>inside that red box is a deficit, and you see

0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 1>how bad they get. We're forty years from now when

0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:12.280
<v Speaker 1>apparently our population will be what ten fifteen million people

0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:15.840
<v Speaker 1>more than it currently is. Fifteen million more tax payers

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.359
<v Speaker 1>most likely to be brought into the country rather than

0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:21.360
<v Speaker 1>people who end up getting born here because people don't

0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:24.080
<v Speaker 1>have as many kids as they used to. That's the

0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:27.199
<v Speaker 1>real picture of the budget. That's why you should join

0:21:27.280 --> 0:21:30.880
<v Speaker 1>us Tuesday night. Cut the spin, cut the bs. We'll

0:21:30.920 --> 0:21:33.880
<v Speaker 1>get straight through it, I promise you Tuesday Night, straight

0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:36.399
<v Speaker 1>after the coverage from camera US nine point thirty and

0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:37.960
<v Speaker 1>in fact we're doing a ninety minute show all the

0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:40.160
<v Speaker 1>way to eleven o'clock, a straight ANEC in daylight time

0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:42.600
<v Speaker 1>late debate after that, so no one's missing out on

0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:45.240
<v Speaker 1>Budget Night. But be here in the front row because

0:21:45.280 --> 0:21:49.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to hit this one for six when it

0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:50.720
<v Speaker 1>comes to the latest numbers and we're getting to a

0:21:50.720 --> 0:21:52.280
<v Speaker 1>state at the race in the moment or two time,

0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:54.960
<v Speaker 1>you should know THEO is some few poles around the

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:56.960
<v Speaker 1>latest ones. Again they start to show things get being

0:21:56.960 --> 0:21:58.959
<v Speaker 1>slightly better for the Labor Party. But let's look at

0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:01.639
<v Speaker 1>this thing state by state, because while currently it's like

0:22:01.680 --> 0:22:04.080
<v Speaker 1>fifty one forty nine might be the Libs way, might

0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:06.280
<v Speaker 1>be Labour's way. One of the things that is propping

0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:08.760
<v Speaker 1>up the Labour Party right now is a pretty solid

0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:13.040
<v Speaker 1>vote outside of New South Wales and Victoria and Queensland.

0:22:13.560 --> 0:22:15.320
<v Speaker 1>In fact, once you look at Western Australia it is

0:22:15.359 --> 0:22:17.399
<v Speaker 1>fifty five forty five. When you have a look at

0:22:17.400 --> 0:22:23.359
<v Speaker 1>South Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Act forty six. But the

0:22:23.400 --> 0:22:26.439
<v Speaker 1>reason that the government could lose certainly its majority and

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:30.960
<v Speaker 1>possibly government is because they are behind in Victoria fifty

0:22:31.000 --> 0:22:32.680
<v Speaker 1>one forty nine. That'd be a few seats in the

0:22:32.800 --> 0:22:35.399
<v Speaker 1>chain's hands. In New South Wales they are way behind

0:22:35.440 --> 0:22:38.760
<v Speaker 1>fifty two forty eight, and they are behind Daylight fifty

0:22:38.800 --> 0:22:41.679
<v Speaker 1>five to forty five in Queensland. Watch this space if

0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:43.080
<v Speaker 1>you want a little more detail, we can get into

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:45.880
<v Speaker 1>the primary vote. If you'd really like to remember. Thirty

0:22:45.880 --> 0:22:48.359
<v Speaker 1>three percent nationally is what Labour had last time to

0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:50.960
<v Speaker 1>form government. They were, of course, the lowest they had

0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:53.359
<v Speaker 1>been in one hundred years. It's now down to thirty.

0:22:53.520 --> 0:22:55.800
<v Speaker 1>The Libs are up to thirty nine, the magical number

0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:57.360
<v Speaker 1>of there's a four in front of it. They would

0:22:57.400 --> 0:22:59.879
<v Speaker 1>be likely to win an election. News of Whales are

0:22:59.880 --> 0:23:02.320
<v Speaker 1>prom we vote forty two. Queensland primary vote forty two

0:23:02.400 --> 0:23:05.600
<v Speaker 1>for the coalition. Labour Party's best state right now Western

0:23:05.600 --> 0:23:08.359
<v Speaker 1>Australia thirty five percent. Now that's good because from their

0:23:08.400 --> 0:23:10.600
<v Speaker 1>perspective they've got four seats in risks. They may only

0:23:10.680 --> 0:23:12.600
<v Speaker 1>end up losing one. But if you're going to lose

0:23:12.720 --> 0:23:14.960
<v Speaker 1>way more than one in New soth Wales, or in

0:23:15.280 --> 0:23:18.360
<v Speaker 1>Victoria or in Queensland, you're not going to be able

0:23:18.400 --> 0:23:20.920
<v Speaker 1>to hold on to a majority, let alone government at all.

0:23:21.560 --> 0:23:23.760
<v Speaker 1>Number one issue doesn't matter what the state is. Cost

0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:27.160
<v Speaker 1>of living. Second biggest issue housing. Now there's a real

0:23:27.240 --> 0:23:30.119
<v Speaker 1>opportunity for Peter Dunton in his budget and reply speech

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:33.119
<v Speaker 1>which happens on Thursday, What if anything can he do

0:23:33.280 --> 0:23:35.600
<v Speaker 1>to help people buy a house or to pay for

0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:38.879
<v Speaker 1>a house when it comes to rent. One of the

0:23:38.920 --> 0:23:40.640
<v Speaker 1>ways you can do that is, of course to dramatically

0:23:40.640 --> 0:23:42.959
<v Speaker 1>slash immigration, which he's doing. One of the things he's

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:45.200
<v Speaker 1>promising to do in his first term is to guarantee

0:23:45.440 --> 0:23:47.560
<v Speaker 1>that there will be no foreign buyers. Good. He's promising

0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:49.520
<v Speaker 1>that as well. That's what he promised twelve months ago

0:23:49.560 --> 0:23:51.480
<v Speaker 1>and that became popular with seventy three percent of people

0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:54.000
<v Speaker 1>in marginal electorates. Yes, I know he's behind a bit

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:55.520
<v Speaker 1>at the moment in terms of what the media say

0:23:55.880 --> 0:23:59.000
<v Speaker 1>is happening in the election, but wa'ts this space. He's

0:23:59.000 --> 0:24:01.520
<v Speaker 1>got a big chance Thursday day. Meantime, when it comes

0:24:01.560 --> 0:24:04.280
<v Speaker 1>to the preferred Prime Minister, Anthony Ebernezi up forty four

0:24:04.400 --> 0:24:06.280
<v Speaker 1>to Dunton's forty three. But hang on, I thought he

0:24:06.320 --> 0:24:10.240
<v Speaker 1>was unelectable yet one point margin of error, by the way,

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:13.919
<v Speaker 1>in this poll is what three percent almost four percent

0:24:14.160 --> 0:24:16.480
<v Speaker 1>or five percent in terms of the Western Australian numbers

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:21.400
<v Speaker 1>forty four apiece in New South Wales? Are they leading

0:24:21.600 --> 0:24:25.120
<v Speaker 1>in Victoria by three points, behind in Queensland by two

0:24:25.480 --> 0:24:28.720
<v Speaker 1>up in Western Australia and up across the rest of

0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:31.960
<v Speaker 1>the state. Pay attention. That's what we do each and

0:24:32.000 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 1>every night here on the show, and we will certainly

0:24:33.760 --> 0:24:35.480
<v Speaker 1>pay attention in a moment or two's time when it

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:37.920
<v Speaker 1>comes to the state of the race. Looking forward to

0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:40.320
<v Speaker 1>that Sunday night, hardcore politics each and every week here

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:43.360
<v Speaker 1>on Paulmray Life. A couple of other things away from politics.

0:24:43.400 --> 0:24:46.720
<v Speaker 1>Pope Francis is up and about and likely to be

0:24:46.760 --> 0:24:49.359
<v Speaker 1>released from hospital in the next few days. Incredible story

0:24:49.440 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 1>for the Pontiff. Remember he was apparently very close to

0:24:52.800 --> 0:24:55.440
<v Speaker 1>death's door. Now some Vatican officials are saying that was

0:24:55.520 --> 0:24:57.560
<v Speaker 1>never the case. But if that wasn't the case, why

0:24:57.600 --> 0:25:00.680
<v Speaker 1>berg cardinals being called back to the Vatican. Excellent piece

0:25:00.680 --> 0:25:03.959
<v Speaker 1>of news. So thoughts and prayers if that's your thing.

0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:07.400
<v Speaker 1>Certainly seem to have helped Pope Francis. As I mentioned before,

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:09.840
<v Speaker 1>the great Oscar Piastre. He didn't just win the Chinese

0:25:09.880 --> 0:25:12.440
<v Speaker 1>Formula one Grand Prix, he beat his own teammates, so

0:25:12.560 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 1>same car, same quality by almost ten seconds. He's also

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:24.280
<v Speaker 1>busin he and in the United States we know there

0:25:24.280 --> 0:25:26.840
<v Speaker 1>are too many lunatics who think the best way to

0:25:26.880 --> 0:25:28.440
<v Speaker 1>get back of Donald Trump and the person trying to

0:25:28.480 --> 0:25:31.240
<v Speaker 1>make their government more efficient in Elon Musk is to

0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:34.479
<v Speaker 1>set fire to the cars that Elon Musk makes. Now,

0:25:34.520 --> 0:25:37.879
<v Speaker 1>of course, Elon Musk popularized the electronic car so much

0:25:37.960 --> 0:25:40.520
<v Speaker 1>so that he forced all of the major car companies

0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:41.879
<v Speaker 1>to start making them again. But no, no, no, no,

0:25:42.480 --> 0:25:46.399
<v Speaker 1>he's maga. Now he's dark maga. And twenty percent of

0:25:46.440 --> 0:25:48.720
<v Speaker 1>Americans now say that they are boycotting any sort of

0:25:48.760 --> 0:25:51.080
<v Speaker 1>business with any connection to the Trump world because you know,

0:25:51.520 --> 0:25:55.560
<v Speaker 1>they're better than us. Right. Also, one of the things

0:25:55.560 --> 0:25:58.200
<v Speaker 1>that was worth noticing was one of the dreams that

0:25:58.520 --> 0:26:00.640
<v Speaker 1>writing people in the United States have had some time

0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:03.159
<v Speaker 1>is for the abortion issue to go back to the States.

0:26:03.480 --> 0:26:05.879
<v Speaker 1>He did that, and then the first sorry in the

0:26:06.119 --> 0:26:08.359
<v Speaker 1>period of time where of course he got the majority

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:10.239
<v Speaker 1>of people under the Supreme Court, they send it back

0:26:10.240 --> 0:26:11.879
<v Speaker 1>to the states and guess what, he didn't pay a

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:14.360
<v Speaker 1>price for it in an election. And also many people

0:26:14.400 --> 0:26:16.760
<v Speaker 1>have said it should be states that decide how the

0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:20.360
<v Speaker 1>education system works in those states. And yes, there's still

0:26:20.680 --> 0:26:23.800
<v Speaker 1>money that goes from the federal Department of Education into

0:26:23.880 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 1>things like school lunch programs, and that will still go

0:26:27.359 --> 0:26:29.920
<v Speaker 1>to the states, but there won't be a federal Department

0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:33.280
<v Speaker 1>of Education. And hasn't that got the left is just

0:26:33.560 --> 0:26:37.000
<v Speaker 1>all asunder goodness may how's this for some duds?

0:26:37.040 --> 0:26:41.359
<v Speaker 4>In a twist, people who can read and understand what

0:26:41.440 --> 0:26:44.480
<v Speaker 4>they're doing to medicaid, to Social Security, what Elon Musk

0:26:44.600 --> 0:26:47.120
<v Speaker 4>is doing. The better you're reading comprehension is the more

0:26:47.280 --> 0:26:50.359
<v Speaker 4>you might not like what this administration is doing. So

0:26:50.440 --> 0:26:52.679
<v Speaker 4>an educated citizenry is not in their interest.

0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:56.639
<v Speaker 1>So they want Americans to be dumber. According to this

0:26:56.800 --> 0:26:59.920
<v Speaker 1>bloke's logic, what's his position when it comes to legal

0:27:00.520 --> 0:27:05.360
<v Speaker 1>marijuana in more than thirty states where people are stoned,

0:27:05.840 --> 0:27:07.720
<v Speaker 1>they could be smart people, they could be dumb people,

0:27:07.760 --> 0:27:10.760
<v Speaker 1>but they're still stoned, So you're cool with that. But

0:27:11.040 --> 0:27:13.479
<v Speaker 1>if the state government is in charge of your education

0:27:13.600 --> 0:27:17.359
<v Speaker 1>of the federal government. The sky's falling in. Welcome to

0:27:17.440 --> 0:27:20.240
<v Speaker 1>Lefty Logic. Quick break back with more state of the race.

0:27:20.400 --> 0:27:23.080
<v Speaker 1>It's the deep dive in the politics you need to know,

0:27:23.560 --> 0:27:25.600
<v Speaker 1>ahead of the budget, ahead of the election. Thanks for

0:27:25.680 --> 0:27:33.480
<v Speaker 1>watching us here Sunday night on Paul Murray Life. Geez,

0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:36.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm feeling good tonight. I had a ripping weekend. You

0:27:36.080 --> 0:27:38.800
<v Speaker 1>want to know why I had a ripping weekend? Sorry,

0:27:38.920 --> 0:27:41.919
<v Speaker 1>just waiting for you to talk. Here's the deal. Cleaned

0:27:41.920 --> 0:27:46.760
<v Speaker 1>out the garage like the full proper one, like organizing,

0:27:46.880 --> 0:27:49.080
<v Speaker 1>even making sure that all the right screws were in

0:27:49.119 --> 0:27:50.960
<v Speaker 1>the little thing that I'll never open again because I'm

0:27:50.960 --> 0:27:53.280
<v Speaker 1>not a handyman. You know, I'll fix the whole thing.

0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:58.359
<v Speaker 1>Pressure washing. It was fantastic. Even put together shelves and

0:27:58.520 --> 0:28:02.720
<v Speaker 1>reorganize the garden shed at the back. Why, I don't know,

0:28:03.080 --> 0:28:04.560
<v Speaker 1>but I feel good because I know that we're getting

0:28:04.600 --> 0:28:07.080
<v Speaker 1>ready for election. We're into warm but next week. But

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:08.920
<v Speaker 1>you know what makes me feel even better than that?

0:28:09.520 --> 0:28:11.960
<v Speaker 1>About to talk to these blokes. Cost Samrus from Redbridge,

0:28:11.960 --> 0:28:16.320
<v Speaker 1>of course, the premiere polling and strategic company that talks

0:28:16.400 --> 0:28:19.119
<v Speaker 1>to voters as well as as well as bring some

0:28:19.240 --> 0:28:22.600
<v Speaker 1>numbers back. Obviously News Poll that's the hometown team. But

0:28:22.680 --> 0:28:24.840
<v Speaker 1>I really like these guys too, cos Sam Marus joins

0:28:24.920 --> 0:28:26.440
<v Speaker 1>us and the man who I know because I saw

0:28:26.480 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 1>some social media he wasn't cleaning out his garage, none

0:28:28.680 --> 0:28:30.879
<v Speaker 1>of than Michael Kroger. You know you can get your

0:28:30.880 --> 0:28:33.240
<v Speaker 1>son to do that, but you know that feeling that

0:28:33.359 --> 0:28:36.359
<v Speaker 1>wonderful clean garage freely. I got it now, I got

0:28:36.440 --> 0:28:39.600
<v Speaker 1>it now. Yep. All right, So let's get to a

0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:41.760
<v Speaker 1>few things, including by the way, when we talk about

0:28:41.800 --> 0:28:43.800
<v Speaker 1>red Bridge, this is how much work they do, right,

0:28:43.840 --> 0:28:46.600
<v Speaker 1>There's like sixty something pages the most recent one that

0:28:46.680 --> 0:28:48.280
<v Speaker 1>comes at it. So it's not just the stuff you're

0:28:48.280 --> 0:28:50.120
<v Speaker 1>reading the paper. It's all the data, all the numbers

0:28:50.160 --> 0:28:52.240
<v Speaker 1>that are after all of it, and coause I want

0:28:52.240 --> 0:28:54.040
<v Speaker 1>to talk about something before we start to talk about

0:28:54.080 --> 0:28:55.480
<v Speaker 1>numbers and poles and all the rest of it. I

0:28:55.520 --> 0:28:57.800
<v Speaker 1>want to talk about focus groups, meaning the people you

0:28:57.880 --> 0:29:01.080
<v Speaker 1>are talking to around the country. Clearly we know that

0:29:01.200 --> 0:29:05.200
<v Speaker 1>something has changed. What are they saying about what has

0:29:05.320 --> 0:29:07.840
<v Speaker 1>changed in the past couple of couple of months. Because

0:29:08.520 --> 0:29:11.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm noticing in some of the deep dives here what

0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:13.840
<v Speaker 1>used to be sort of fifty two forty eight becomes

0:29:13.920 --> 0:29:17.040
<v Speaker 1>fifty to fifty becomes fifty two forty eight the other way.

0:29:17.400 --> 0:29:20.240
<v Speaker 1>What are they saying about the past couple of months.

0:29:20.760 --> 0:29:21.719
<v Speaker 6>It depends where you are.

0:29:22.080 --> 0:29:26.080
<v Speaker 7>I mean, if you were in West Australia, maybe parts

0:29:26.120 --> 0:29:29.920
<v Speaker 7>of New South Wales, definitely in South Australia, you know

0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:33.880
<v Speaker 7>you were looking at the current government and you weren't

0:29:33.920 --> 0:29:36.680
<v Speaker 7>happy with it, right, But you're looking, well, maybe there's

0:29:36.680 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 7>a better option, and they're not really getting the better option,

0:29:40.600 --> 0:29:43.600
<v Speaker 7>right because you know, at the moment I defined the

0:29:43.680 --> 0:29:47.080
<v Speaker 7>campaign like the nineteen eighty six Mike Tyson fight with

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:50.920
<v Speaker 7>Trevor Berdwick, where basically you're waiting for Trevor to to

0:29:51.280 --> 0:29:54.040
<v Speaker 7>land a blow you into the second round and it

0:29:54.080 --> 0:29:54.960
<v Speaker 7>ain't lasted two.

0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:59.200
<v Speaker 6>Rounds, right, Yeah, good point, right, And so that's what's.

0:29:59.040 --> 0:30:02.880
<v Speaker 7>Going on right now, not getting any alternative from from

0:30:02.920 --> 0:30:08.520
<v Speaker 7>an economic perspective. Yes, we go to Victoria, particularly Victoria,

0:30:08.560 --> 0:30:10.920
<v Speaker 7>but also parts of the New Suppose again as well,

0:30:11.440 --> 0:30:13.400
<v Speaker 7>and it gets pretty grim for labor.

0:30:14.080 --> 0:30:15.480
<v Speaker 6>So there's a lot of nuance here.

0:30:15.600 --> 0:30:20.080
<v Speaker 7>People are still very very i would say, angry at

0:30:20.120 --> 0:30:23.320
<v Speaker 7>the labor brand in Victoria. It doesn't matter where we go,

0:30:24.320 --> 0:30:28.200
<v Speaker 7>whether it's in Melbourne Regional Victoria, it's pretty bad.

0:30:28.840 --> 0:30:30.920
<v Speaker 1>So it depends where you Yeah, I mean, are there

0:30:30.960 --> 0:30:33.880
<v Speaker 1>places again, so let's let's let's speak specifically about those

0:30:33.920 --> 0:30:37.280
<v Speaker 1>populous areas GISs of Wales, Victoria. Are there people who

0:30:37.720 --> 0:30:39.880
<v Speaker 1>might have been either on the fence or lukeworm who

0:30:39.880 --> 0:30:42.960
<v Speaker 1>are turning around saying Albert can't stand him or you know,

0:30:43.160 --> 0:30:45.600
<v Speaker 1>I kind of like that in a couple, can't stand him.

0:30:45.760 --> 0:30:47.520
<v Speaker 1>Are you hearing any any of that where people are

0:30:47.520 --> 0:30:50.920
<v Speaker 1>starting to move into that, Oh okay, you're a definite

0:30:50.960 --> 0:30:51.840
<v Speaker 1>yes or a definite no.

0:30:53.520 --> 0:30:57.120
<v Speaker 7>Not really right, and so hence why at the moment

0:30:57.560 --> 0:31:00.680
<v Speaker 7>it's tightened in favor of labor. But the vote on

0:31:00.800 --> 0:31:04.400
<v Speaker 7>both sides is still very soft. So we could see

0:31:04.480 --> 0:31:07.600
<v Speaker 7>a situation that one starton gets his campaign up and

0:31:07.680 --> 0:31:11.600
<v Speaker 7>running and starts talking about the economy, then maybe we

0:31:11.680 --> 0:31:13.479
<v Speaker 7>will see the numbers come back a bit.

0:31:13.800 --> 0:31:16.040
<v Speaker 6>I still think it's going to be minority government some

0:31:16.200 --> 0:31:17.400
<v Speaker 6>sort right now.

0:31:18.240 --> 0:31:20.840
<v Speaker 7>If you were to force me to choose, if it

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:23.160
<v Speaker 7>was to be held today, it would be a labor

0:31:23.280 --> 0:31:24.040
<v Speaker 7>minority government.

0:31:24.600 --> 0:31:28.880
<v Speaker 6>But it's so tenuous it could flip within two weeks.

0:31:28.960 --> 0:31:31.840
<v Speaker 1>All right, newspole has just dropped on the Australian newspaper.

0:31:31.880 --> 0:31:33.400
<v Speaker 1>I know that the competitor, but let me tell you

0:31:33.480 --> 0:31:35.560
<v Speaker 1>what their number is, fifty one to forty nine in

0:31:35.680 --> 0:31:38.680
<v Speaker 1>favor of the coalition. The primary vote for the coalition

0:31:38.800 --> 0:31:41.440
<v Speaker 1>now thirty nine percent. Remember they have a four in

0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:45.080
<v Speaker 1>front of it. They win elections general normal elections. Thirty nine. Well,

0:31:45.160 --> 0:31:47.120
<v Speaker 1>best they've been in a long time. Labor back to

0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:50.640
<v Speaker 1>thirty one. One nation at seven percent. Now there are

0:31:50.680 --> 0:31:52.920
<v Speaker 1>polls anywhere now the last election they got five percent

0:31:53.000 --> 0:31:56.120
<v Speaker 1>one nation. Now it's seven in some poles. Nine pay attention.

0:31:56.480 --> 0:32:00.040
<v Speaker 1>Greens haven't moved anywhere. Twelve percent better Prime Minister and

0:32:00.080 --> 0:32:04.880
<v Speaker 1>easy fifty sorry forty five to Dutton's forty fifteen percent

0:32:04.920 --> 0:32:08.760
<v Speaker 1>of people no idea. And again basically their analysis is

0:32:08.880 --> 0:32:11.280
<v Speaker 1>worth reading at another point in time, Michael, you'd be

0:32:11.320 --> 0:32:14.200
<v Speaker 1>happy that that's tomorrow's headline. Coalitions still in front after

0:32:14.280 --> 0:32:18.080
<v Speaker 1>multiple weeks of people saying what's going on? What's going on?

0:32:20.880 --> 0:32:22.520
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, well, there's that out in my mind that the

0:32:22.560 --> 0:32:25.120
<v Speaker 5>Coalition has slowed over the last month, and that's reflected

0:32:25.160 --> 0:32:30.240
<v Speaker 5>in the polls. But knowing the odd thing here or there,

0:32:30.640 --> 0:32:32.800
<v Speaker 5>I look at Labor, and I think they've probably played

0:32:32.800 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 5>their biggest card, which was their Medicare deal. I mean

0:32:35.440 --> 0:32:37.640
<v Speaker 5>Medicare funning. That was the biggest card. I mean they've

0:32:37.640 --> 0:32:40.240
<v Speaker 5>got they've got two cards they play. They'll play in

0:32:40.280 --> 0:32:44.680
<v Speaker 5>this election. Number one, the Liberals are going to sell

0:32:44.720 --> 0:32:47.680
<v Speaker 5>off Medicare, privatize it whatever whatever.

0:32:47.920 --> 0:32:48.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean.

0:32:48.600 --> 0:32:51.080
<v Speaker 5>Malcolm was doing that in two sixteen. As we'll remember

0:32:51.120 --> 0:32:53.480
<v Speaker 5>at nine years on, it still hasn't happened. And the

0:32:53.560 --> 0:32:56.000
<v Speaker 5>second card they play, as the second card they play,

0:32:56.040 --> 0:32:59.360
<v Speaker 5>of course, is the secret Cuts. I've seen this card

0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:01.760
<v Speaker 5>played in many, many times. It's a good one actually,

0:33:01.880 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 5>because people fear the unknown, and the secret Liberal cuts

0:33:05.440 --> 0:33:07.320
<v Speaker 5>is one where they've trotted out of the ad end

0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:10.800
<v Speaker 5>state campaign here. They tried every few elections. So when

0:33:10.920 --> 0:33:13.080
<v Speaker 5>Labor have for no real cards to play, there the

0:33:13.160 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 5>two cards, and they're effective. I'm not sure the meny

0:33:16.800 --> 0:33:20.120
<v Speaker 5>caare one will work this time because people don't like

0:33:20.200 --> 0:33:22.240
<v Speaker 5>being conned and they know they were conned in sixteen.

0:33:23.200 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 5>And the secret cuts. I think everyone realizes. The budgets

0:33:26.080 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 5>in a shocking position. I mean Netdad is increasing two

0:33:28.920 --> 0:33:31.480
<v Speaker 5>hundred billion in the next few years, So I don't

0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:34.840
<v Speaker 5>know where Jim Chalmers gets all these figures from. He's

0:33:34.840 --> 0:33:37.800
<v Speaker 5>put in a shaka. So I think the cab before

0:33:37.840 --> 0:33:39.880
<v Speaker 5>the storm is the fact that the Coalition have kept

0:33:39.960 --> 0:33:43.560
<v Speaker 5>most of their policies over the last month despite being goaded.

0:33:44.280 --> 0:33:46.400
<v Speaker 5>And I think Darton is going to edge your head

0:33:46.400 --> 0:33:47.800
<v Speaker 5>when he from Thursday onwards.

0:33:47.960 --> 0:33:51.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, as I said Budget and Reply speech, which brings

0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:53.160
<v Speaker 1>me to the question of who has the most pressure

0:33:53.240 --> 0:33:55.600
<v Speaker 1>on them right now. I think it is frankly Peter

0:33:55.680 --> 0:33:58.080
<v Speaker 1>Dunton in relation to Thursday, because we know the story

0:33:58.120 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 1>in and around Charmers, right, Chalmers is literally telling people, oh, no,

0:34:02.040 --> 0:34:04.440
<v Speaker 1>power prices are down by twenty five percent, and they're

0:34:04.440 --> 0:34:06.800
<v Speaker 1>not down by twenty five percent. There's this artificial thing

0:34:06.840 --> 0:34:09.359
<v Speaker 1>that the government's doing which feeds into inflation, which feeds

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:12.839
<v Speaker 1>into their arguments in and around in relation to say

0:34:12.880 --> 0:34:15.920
<v Speaker 1>the Reserve Bank. Right, anyone actually paying attention, well, you

0:34:16.040 --> 0:34:18.880
<v Speaker 1>know the fallacy of all of that. But obviously for

0:34:18.960 --> 0:34:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Peter Duddon, the reason Thursday is such a big opportunity

0:34:22.120 --> 0:34:24.920
<v Speaker 1>cause is because you've got thirty minutes, thirty minutes certainly

0:34:24.920 --> 0:34:27.040
<v Speaker 1>here at sky and nears thirty thirty minutes over there

0:34:27.400 --> 0:34:29.719
<v Speaker 1>on taxpayer telly where no one's going to interrupt you.

0:34:29.719 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 1>It's not an interview, it's not a press conference. You've

0:34:32.040 --> 0:34:34.919
<v Speaker 1>got your thirty minutes to have some big ideas. First

0:34:35.000 --> 0:34:38.520
<v Speaker 1>year was nuclear power, Second was immigration and the foreign

0:34:38.600 --> 0:34:41.840
<v Speaker 1>buyers stuff, right. Third, well it has to be this

0:34:41.920 --> 0:34:46.000
<v Speaker 1>amount of money, this idea, some big stuff, because otherwise

0:34:46.440 --> 0:34:48.279
<v Speaker 1>you can keep pointing to the binfire that is the

0:34:48.360 --> 0:34:51.080
<v Speaker 1>other one. But unless you're promising to bring some water

0:34:51.200 --> 0:34:53.000
<v Speaker 1>to put it out, well they're going to stick with

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:54.040
<v Speaker 1>the bin fire, aren't they.

0:34:55.440 --> 0:34:56.080
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, that's right.

0:34:56.200 --> 0:35:01.040
<v Speaker 7>I mean it's basically, you know, come Thursday, it does

0:35:01.120 --> 0:35:04.000
<v Speaker 7>don't come out with a very significant package of economic

0:35:04.120 --> 0:35:06.879
<v Speaker 7>reform that captures the hearts and minds of the sort

0:35:06.920 --> 0:35:09.840
<v Speaker 7>of people that we're talking about now. These are you know,

0:35:10.000 --> 0:35:12.640
<v Speaker 7>thirty something forty something year olds in the outer suburbs

0:35:12.680 --> 0:35:17.800
<v Speaker 7>of particularly Sydney Melbourne who are feeling the pinch, not

0:35:17.920 --> 0:35:22.320
<v Speaker 7>really happy with the current labor government, not really convinced

0:35:22.360 --> 0:35:26.200
<v Speaker 7>about what the coalition has to offer. And if he's

0:35:26.239 --> 0:35:30.600
<v Speaker 7>able to actually put forward a narrative that is digestible

0:35:31.200 --> 0:35:33.800
<v Speaker 7>that it actually shakes the cage quite a lot in

0:35:33.960 --> 0:35:36.600
<v Speaker 7>terms of, hey, this guy is going to actually really

0:35:37.160 --> 0:35:39.040
<v Speaker 7>change the way this country functions.

0:35:40.000 --> 0:35:43.120
<v Speaker 6>Then they'll start listening. And this is why Thursday is

0:35:43.120 --> 0:35:43.840
<v Speaker 6>so important for it.

0:35:44.160 --> 0:35:46.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I've got that feeling, Michael, that they're in a

0:35:46.360 --> 0:35:49.040
<v Speaker 1>scenario where you shake the cage the right way, you

0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:51.799
<v Speaker 1>turn fifty to fifty into fifty two forty eight your way,

0:35:52.000 --> 0:35:53.920
<v Speaker 1>you shake the cage the wrong way, or obviously the

0:35:54.040 --> 0:35:57.160
<v Speaker 1>hysterical interpretation of it, it ends up going fifty two

0:35:57.239 --> 0:36:01.600
<v Speaker 1>forty eight the other way. Thursday, what's the threshold? What

0:36:01.680 --> 0:36:02.960
<v Speaker 1>do you need? Because he's not going to stand there

0:36:02.960 --> 0:36:06.120
<v Speaker 1>and be able to produce seven hundred page economic document.

0:36:06.360 --> 0:36:08.600
<v Speaker 1>But whatever his version of that, that that you know,

0:36:08.960 --> 0:36:11.160
<v Speaker 1>little pamphlet that they all walk around with with our

0:36:11.239 --> 0:36:13.600
<v Speaker 1>economic plan, He's got to hold that up on Thursday,

0:36:13.640 --> 0:36:14.000
<v Speaker 1>doesn't he.

0:36:16.080 --> 0:36:16.279
<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

0:36:16.440 --> 0:36:19.040
<v Speaker 5>Look, I'd like to say Charms has got more to lose,

0:36:19.080 --> 0:36:21.040
<v Speaker 5>but I actually think Peter's got more to lose because

0:36:21.120 --> 0:36:23.120
<v Speaker 5>DUTs and s DUTs his favorite to win the election. Now,

0:36:23.280 --> 0:36:26.800
<v Speaker 5>he's the favorite in the betting market, in the polls,

0:36:27.960 --> 0:36:30.520
<v Speaker 5>he's the book Peter Dutton is favorite to win the election.

0:36:31.480 --> 0:36:34.279
<v Speaker 5>So you know, what's what's Jim going to say on

0:36:34.480 --> 0:36:36.480
<v Speaker 5>Tuesday Night? Well, you know, I don't think he's a

0:36:36.480 --> 0:36:37.080
<v Speaker 5>big performer.

0:36:37.239 --> 0:36:38.239
<v Speaker 1>He cur't really talk.

0:36:38.560 --> 0:36:40.680
<v Speaker 5>He's one hundred and fifty dollars energy rebate well, as

0:36:40.680 --> 0:36:43.080
<v Speaker 5>people have been saying on skoy tonight, everyone knows he's

0:36:43.120 --> 0:36:45.840
<v Speaker 5>giving them back a small proportion of the money that

0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:49.080
<v Speaker 5>they've had to pay in increased bills. So energy is

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:52.040
<v Speaker 5>not really an election winner for Labor. And you'll notice

0:36:52.080 --> 0:36:54.239
<v Speaker 5>Chris Bowen has disappeared from the national stage in the

0:36:54.320 --> 0:36:58.120
<v Speaker 5>last month or so, so I think Peter Dutton has

0:36:58.160 --> 0:37:02.360
<v Speaker 5>got more to lose because, as you say, the economic

0:37:02.440 --> 0:37:04.680
<v Speaker 5>narrative and people need money. They want to see reform,

0:37:04.760 --> 0:37:06.440
<v Speaker 5>they want to see change, they want to see relief,

0:37:06.840 --> 0:37:10.080
<v Speaker 5>they want to see a pathway forward, and that hasn't

0:37:10.520 --> 0:37:13.080
<v Speaker 5>quite frankly been a strong point of the coalitions over

0:37:13.120 --> 0:37:14.960
<v Speaker 5>the last couple of years. They've kept their powder drive

0:37:15.280 --> 0:37:17.120
<v Speaker 5>because it's very hard for an opposition when you never

0:37:17.160 --> 0:37:19.480
<v Speaker 5>know what's happening with the budget. So after Cheers they

0:37:19.480 --> 0:37:21.160
<v Speaker 5>will see the budget, there'll be in a much a

0:37:21.520 --> 0:37:24.440
<v Speaker 5>better position on Thursday to frame an argument announce some

0:37:24.480 --> 0:37:27.200
<v Speaker 5>policy detail. I think that's what he'll do, And as

0:37:27.200 --> 0:37:31.600
<v Speaker 5>I said before, I think Darton's position will strengthen after Thursday.

0:37:32.360 --> 0:37:34.120
<v Speaker 1>There's a couple of things inside your poll cost that

0:37:34.320 --> 0:37:37.239
<v Speaker 1>I'm particularly fascinated by, And just in case there's a

0:37:37.280 --> 0:37:40.520
<v Speaker 1>deal to publish the number somewhere else, I won't blow

0:37:40.560 --> 0:37:44.480
<v Speaker 1>anyone's chance at that. But I remember reading in this

0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:47.480
<v Speaker 1>poll a couple of poles ago that people who had

0:37:47.520 --> 0:37:50.480
<v Speaker 1>a house with a mortgage were pretty positive in favor

0:37:50.520 --> 0:37:53.640
<v Speaker 1>of the Liberal Party. Now a very clear majority for

0:37:53.760 --> 0:37:56.440
<v Speaker 1>the Labor Party. Now. I know, yes, there has been

0:37:56.600 --> 0:37:59.480
<v Speaker 1>one reduction in interest rates, but you would think that

0:38:01.000 --> 0:38:04.279
<v Speaker 1>that belt is the group of people that are the

0:38:04.360 --> 0:38:07.080
<v Speaker 1>outer suburban the whole strategy, all the rest of it here.

0:38:09.320 --> 0:38:11.520
<v Speaker 1>Do you have any insight as to why that number

0:38:11.719 --> 0:38:14.040
<v Speaker 1>hasn't just floated a little? But there's been a very

0:38:14.200 --> 0:38:17.640
<v Speaker 1>different you know, the narrative has basically flipped exactly the

0:38:17.640 --> 0:38:20.000
<v Speaker 1>opposite with the people who've had to pay the most

0:38:20.200 --> 0:38:22.440
<v Speaker 1>over the past three years of Albert.

0:38:22.680 --> 0:38:26.600
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, those numbers moving within that particular constituency is proof

0:38:26.680 --> 0:38:31.239
<v Speaker 7>of just how volatile the situation is. So, you know,

0:38:32.360 --> 0:38:34.720
<v Speaker 7>the numbers have gotten better for Labor in Western Australia,

0:38:34.800 --> 0:38:38.520
<v Speaker 7>South Australia, parts of Western Sydney. But I'll go back

0:38:38.520 --> 0:38:41.080
<v Speaker 7>to again, as I touched on earlier before, with Victoria.

0:38:42.360 --> 0:38:44.160
<v Speaker 7>This is where I think, you know, we can do.

0:38:44.320 --> 0:38:46.719
<v Speaker 7>We can publish a fifty one forty nine because news

0:38:46.800 --> 0:38:50.840
<v Speaker 7>Polls is fifty one forty nine the other way. Victoria

0:38:51.000 --> 0:38:53.240
<v Speaker 7>is a real big problem for the over party because

0:38:53.880 --> 0:38:54.680
<v Speaker 7>we're looking.

0:38:54.600 --> 0:38:57.799
<v Speaker 6>At the key seats track that we published through News Limited.

0:38:59.000 --> 0:39:02.880
<v Speaker 7>Has Victoria, they are recording an eight percent swing against labor.

0:39:02.880 --> 0:39:07.840
<v Speaker 6>Blimey across the board, right, So that's a significant problem.

0:39:08.200 --> 0:39:08.680
<v Speaker 1>And it.

0:39:10.440 --> 0:39:12.800
<v Speaker 7>Appears even with the numbers we've got now with the

0:39:12.880 --> 0:39:16.640
<v Speaker 7>weaven detailed that in this recent publication, that is just

0:39:16.680 --> 0:39:20.800
<v Speaker 7>getting worse every week. So the labor campaign's working everywhere

0:39:21.040 --> 0:39:22.720
<v Speaker 7>except with Victoria's just going backwards.

0:39:23.360 --> 0:39:26.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, which is extraordinary because look, I mean my view

0:39:26.239 --> 0:39:28.400
<v Speaker 1>is that is that Allan is circling the drain. And

0:39:28.480 --> 0:39:30.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't just mean that about UNI for her own time.

0:39:30.600 --> 0:39:33.160
<v Speaker 1>It's like, look, you know that excellent report on sixty

0:39:33.200 --> 0:39:35.880
<v Speaker 1>minutes where they went back, they went back on Allen

0:39:36.040 --> 0:39:37.759
<v Speaker 1>and they looked right in the eye and they took

0:39:37.800 --> 0:39:40.440
<v Speaker 1>the hang on, sorry, we got what you said, just

0:39:40.480 --> 0:39:42.839
<v Speaker 1>to sort of get everyone off everyone's back after last time,

0:39:43.040 --> 0:39:45.080
<v Speaker 1>what's happened in the six months since, let alone a

0:39:45.080 --> 0:39:48.120
<v Speaker 1>whole bunch of series and stupid decisions, and even when

0:39:48.160 --> 0:39:50.080
<v Speaker 1>they try to get a positive story up, as they

0:39:50.080 --> 0:39:51.640
<v Speaker 1>did towards the end of last week. Oh, there's definitely

0:39:51.640 --> 0:39:53.800
<v Speaker 1>going to be a train between the airport and the city. No,

0:39:53.880 --> 0:39:55.840
<v Speaker 1>there's not. There's a memory of it, of understanding to

0:39:55.880 --> 0:39:58.880
<v Speaker 1>have more meetings about it. All right, thinking again, you'll.

0:39:58.719 --> 0:39:59.080
<v Speaker 7>Fall for it.

0:39:59.160 --> 0:40:02.400
<v Speaker 1>Low information to all the rest of it here. But Michael,

0:40:03.680 --> 0:40:06.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm fascinated again this Victoria question. Give people an idea

0:40:06.920 --> 0:40:10.360
<v Speaker 1>if it is an eight percent swing in Victoria. I

0:40:10.400 --> 0:40:13.040
<v Speaker 1>don't know whether you look. I don't want to set

0:40:13.040 --> 0:40:14.640
<v Speaker 1>a test for you, but I'll do it anyway. How

0:40:14.680 --> 0:40:16.680
<v Speaker 1>many seats change if it's eight percent.

0:40:19.640 --> 0:40:20.960
<v Speaker 5>Well, because I've got a sheet in front of me,

0:40:21.000 --> 0:40:25.920
<v Speaker 5>I continue. It's ten seats, which would beat my record

0:40:26.000 --> 0:40:28.319
<v Speaker 5>of nine, which would beat my record of nine when

0:40:28.320 --> 0:40:30.200
<v Speaker 5>I was president of ninety ninety. Not that it was

0:40:30.840 --> 0:40:32.120
<v Speaker 5>the result was due to me, by those It was

0:40:32.160 --> 0:40:33.040
<v Speaker 5>due to Andrew Peacocks.

0:40:33.040 --> 0:40:36.160
<v Speaker 1>So that means they go government here sixty eight in

0:40:36.280 --> 0:40:39.520
<v Speaker 1>one style, one state alone takes well no.

0:40:40.680 --> 0:40:42.640
<v Speaker 5>No, no, two of those are teals. But it means

0:40:42.680 --> 0:40:45.440
<v Speaker 5>that Dutton and Victoria alone goes from fifty seven to

0:40:45.520 --> 0:40:46.200
<v Speaker 5>sixty seven.

0:40:46.760 --> 0:40:47.880
<v Speaker 1>I think it's ten in Victoria.

0:40:47.880 --> 0:40:49.959
<v Speaker 5>If it's an eight percent swing in Victoria, Peter Dutton

0:40:49.960 --> 0:40:52.880
<v Speaker 5>will win an his own right. So at the minute

0:40:52.880 --> 0:40:55.200
<v Speaker 5>I've got I've got Peter Dutton winning three in Victoria,

0:40:55.320 --> 0:40:59.080
<v Speaker 5>which are which are aston which I think they're certain

0:40:59.120 --> 0:41:02.040
<v Speaker 5>to win as one lost in the by election. Katie

0:41:02.040 --> 0:41:06.640
<v Speaker 5>Allen will win Chisholm, and we'll win mcew and that's three.

0:41:07.520 --> 0:41:11.400
<v Speaker 5>Bruce is on five percent, that's four, q Young's and

0:41:11.480 --> 0:41:15.000
<v Speaker 5>two point two. That's five. Gold Sea's on three point three,

0:41:15.080 --> 0:41:18.879
<v Speaker 5>that's six. And then you win under eight Hawk Kerngamote,

0:41:20.440 --> 0:41:21.440
<v Speaker 5>Dunkley and Holt.

0:41:22.280 --> 0:41:22.960
<v Speaker 1>So that's ten.

0:41:23.360 --> 0:41:27.560
<v Speaker 5>So if causes right nine, I elbow the best thing

0:41:27.680 --> 0:41:30.200
<v Speaker 5>Labor could do. By the way, if you know, as

0:41:30.239 --> 0:41:32.080
<v Speaker 5>long as people don't repeat what I've said here and

0:41:32.160 --> 0:41:34.320
<v Speaker 5>I just keep this to yourselves, the best thing the

0:41:34.400 --> 0:41:37.799
<v Speaker 5>Laby Patty could do in Victoria is dumped just Ciner

0:41:37.840 --> 0:41:41.759
<v Speaker 5>Allen as premier agree before the federal election. So if

0:41:41.800 --> 0:41:44.319
<v Speaker 5>they dumped Allen and they brought in that deputy guy

0:41:44.360 --> 0:41:47.839
<v Speaker 5>Ben Carroll, who's sort of you know, a poor man's

0:41:47.920 --> 0:41:52.240
<v Speaker 5>version of Chris Min's. If they brought Carolyn, who doesn't

0:41:52.320 --> 0:41:54.600
<v Speaker 5>like Andrews. Right, he didn't get on with Daniel Andrews.

0:41:54.640 --> 0:41:57.400
<v Speaker 5>He doesn't like the suburban rail link this this, this

0:41:57.680 --> 0:42:01.640
<v Speaker 5>train line to nowhere costing millions and millions. If he

0:42:01.760 --> 0:42:06.000
<v Speaker 5>came in dumped suburban Railink, distance himself from the hard

0:42:06.040 --> 0:42:08.520
<v Speaker 5>lockdowns under the Andrews government, said he's going to get

0:42:08.560 --> 0:42:11.560
<v Speaker 5>that budget back outder control, then we wouldn't win ten

0:42:11.640 --> 0:42:13.479
<v Speaker 5>seats or anything like that. That's the best thing Labour

0:42:13.520 --> 0:42:15.360
<v Speaker 5>could do in Victoria's get rid of Allen. But I

0:42:15.400 --> 0:42:17.880
<v Speaker 5>don't think they're going to. And let's hope if she

0:42:18.000 --> 0:42:20.640
<v Speaker 5>stays there, flying stays a sil election.

0:42:20.600 --> 0:42:22.560
<v Speaker 1>And just I'm not going to remember when you handed

0:42:22.600 --> 0:42:24.520
<v Speaker 1>in your homework and teachers used to be old school

0:42:24.520 --> 0:42:26.319
<v Speaker 1>and they used to write show working. You know, I'm

0:42:26.320 --> 0:42:27.480
<v Speaker 1>not going to write that on yours. I'm going to

0:42:27.520 --> 0:42:30.560
<v Speaker 1>say great working, great working. God's going to respond in

0:42:30.600 --> 0:42:32.520
<v Speaker 1>a moment or two time quid break back with more

0:42:32.520 --> 0:42:34.920
<v Speaker 1>here on Paul Murray Life started the Race Sunday night.

0:42:35.040 --> 0:42:42.080
<v Speaker 1>I love this night, I really do. If you just

0:42:42.239 --> 0:42:45.080
<v Speaker 1>join us, hey, well, where you've been right, anyway, still

0:42:45.120 --> 0:42:48.040
<v Speaker 1>appreciate it. Newsport's just dropped fifty one forty nine in

0:42:48.120 --> 0:42:50.000
<v Speaker 1>favor of the Coalition, putting to bed some of the

0:42:50.360 --> 0:42:54.240
<v Speaker 1>fears that everything had fallen apart in the past few weeks. However,

0:42:54.280 --> 0:42:56.600
<v Speaker 1>fifty one to forty nine margin nevera It could be

0:42:57.719 --> 0:43:00.279
<v Speaker 1>nine the other way for the blokes who get down

0:43:00.280 --> 0:43:02.080
<v Speaker 1>into the detail and there's plenty of it to scratch

0:43:02.080 --> 0:43:03.880
<v Speaker 1>around in are the blokes who know the data and

0:43:04.040 --> 0:43:06.560
<v Speaker 1>know how it is shaped by the political campaigns. Because

0:43:06.560 --> 0:43:10.160
<v Speaker 1>Samorus is from Redbridge, Michael Croe go well legend here

0:43:10.239 --> 0:43:13.480
<v Speaker 1>on Palmurray Live, and of course the Liberal Party in Victoria. Now, guys,

0:43:13.560 --> 0:43:15.040
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to ask you this question, and it is

0:43:15.120 --> 0:43:18.640
<v Speaker 1>about budgets, because there's a great myth that deliver a

0:43:18.680 --> 0:43:22.960
<v Speaker 1>budget and your numbers change. Right. Certainly for this government

0:43:23.000 --> 0:43:26.080
<v Speaker 1>there was no budget bounce even after the tax cut,

0:43:26.160 --> 0:43:28.840
<v Speaker 1>staff and power stuff last time. Maybe a little stemming

0:43:28.840 --> 0:43:31.439
<v Speaker 1>of bleeding, but bleeding came back because the fundamentals were wrong.

0:43:32.120 --> 0:43:34.040
<v Speaker 1>Pretty much the same of course for the Libs during

0:43:34.160 --> 0:43:36.000
<v Speaker 1>THEIRS as well. But then there's the COVID stuff that

0:43:36.080 --> 0:43:38.040
<v Speaker 1>makes things all pretty weird, and you've got to go

0:43:38.120 --> 0:43:40.560
<v Speaker 1>way back into the world of Howard maybe for a

0:43:40.600 --> 0:43:43.200
<v Speaker 1>different sign. So I'm not entirely sure that there is

0:43:43.320 --> 0:43:45.360
<v Speaker 1>budget bouncers and all of that, and certainly not for

0:43:45.920 --> 0:43:49.000
<v Speaker 1>this government potentially, as we've discussed for the opposition about

0:43:49.040 --> 0:43:53.359
<v Speaker 1>their alternative financial situation. But there is a question at

0:43:53.400 --> 0:43:55.640
<v Speaker 1>the heart of this though, which is that Peter Dutton,

0:43:56.719 --> 0:43:58.520
<v Speaker 1>of course is going to run with just sit at Amber,

0:43:58.560 --> 0:44:02.080
<v Speaker 1>jimper Price, with Jane Hume, with Angus Taylor on they

0:44:02.200 --> 0:44:05.080
<v Speaker 1>reduced the size of government agenda. Now, of course that

0:44:05.200 --> 0:44:08.440
<v Speaker 1>works when you're in a federal budget deficit. However, the

0:44:08.640 --> 0:44:11.120
<v Speaker 1>obvious interpretation is cut cut cut, cut, cut, cut, cut, cut,

0:44:11.160 --> 0:44:13.239
<v Speaker 1>cart uga booger music and all of that that plays

0:44:13.280 --> 0:44:15.960
<v Speaker 1>the next of the while. So, because are you the

0:44:16.000 --> 0:44:19.839
<v Speaker 1>type of person tell me about this this philosophical thing.

0:44:19.960 --> 0:44:22.640
<v Speaker 1>Do people believe the countries peddling money up against the

0:44:22.680 --> 0:44:24.759
<v Speaker 1>wall and therefore needs to pull back a beer or

0:44:25.480 --> 0:44:27.600
<v Speaker 1>it's like as soon as you take a dollar away

0:44:27.640 --> 0:44:32.319
<v Speaker 1>from someone, they know, are you buggers? Yeah.

0:44:32.400 --> 0:44:36.879
<v Speaker 7>Look, it's a problem for the coalition, you know, when

0:44:36.920 --> 0:44:40.279
<v Speaker 7>they announced the cuts to the public service. It's a

0:44:40.320 --> 0:44:43.360
<v Speaker 7>problem because when I as a campaigner look at that announcement,

0:44:43.440 --> 0:44:45.959
<v Speaker 7>I go, okay, So they didn't put a ring fence

0:44:46.000 --> 0:44:49.960
<v Speaker 7>around that, they didn't describe who who's going to get rich?

0:44:51.120 --> 0:44:54.320
<v Speaker 7>So then okay, follows on the labor camp, I'd go, okay,

0:44:54.440 --> 0:44:56.239
<v Speaker 7>let me pull out all the seats that have got

0:44:56.239 --> 0:44:58.480
<v Speaker 7>a lot of public servants in the federal public service

0:44:58.560 --> 0:45:02.239
<v Speaker 7>calum of public servants and run a ski campaign. And

0:45:02.360 --> 0:45:06.560
<v Speaker 7>that's exactly what I'll be doing. And so that's Chisholm right,

0:45:07.040 --> 0:45:09.759
<v Speaker 7>that's that's a lot of like beat along. There's I

0:45:09.840 --> 0:45:12.520
<v Speaker 7>can go through all the seats, lots of the tail seats,

0:45:14.040 --> 0:45:19.120
<v Speaker 7>and so I think it was a strategic mistake to basically.

0:45:18.800 --> 0:45:19.279
<v Speaker 1>Lead with that.

0:45:20.280 --> 0:45:22.719
<v Speaker 7>I would have back ended it. You know, when they

0:45:22.800 --> 0:45:25.239
<v Speaker 7>pushed me where you're going to get your savings from,

0:45:25.360 --> 0:45:27.799
<v Speaker 7>I would have done a deliver with our dropped it. Yeah,

0:45:27.880 --> 0:45:29.600
<v Speaker 7>we're going to cut some some of the politic service.

0:45:30.000 --> 0:45:30.920
<v Speaker 7>Some of the fat cats in.

0:45:30.920 --> 0:45:35.000
<v Speaker 1>Camera said, because they're green seats, they're green and labor seats,

0:45:35.000 --> 0:45:37.440
<v Speaker 1>you you're never going close. But as soon as and

0:45:37.680 --> 0:45:40.040
<v Speaker 1>again they've started this up today, you know, oh Indy,

0:45:40.120 --> 0:45:42.279
<v Speaker 1>I s workers and you know, so we'll see where

0:45:42.280 --> 0:45:44.319
<v Speaker 1>this goes. The other one here Michael is, I want

0:45:44.360 --> 0:45:47.040
<v Speaker 1>to show you a John Black, former Labor senator, really

0:45:47.120 --> 0:45:49.560
<v Speaker 1>interesting analysis and I don't know where he's come from

0:45:49.600 --> 0:45:52.600
<v Speaker 1>in terms of profile around this, but Jeezu's on at

0:45:52.640 --> 0:45:55.360
<v Speaker 1>this election. He's been right there on the data about

0:45:55.400 --> 0:45:57.600
<v Speaker 1>how fifty to fifty and then how minority all the

0:45:57.640 --> 0:46:00.600
<v Speaker 1>rest of it, right, but he's added some extra data

0:46:00.640 --> 0:46:03.160
<v Speaker 1>that gives us this idea. Basically, we all know the

0:46:03.200 --> 0:46:05.759
<v Speaker 1>primary vot'es low. Certainly, if it's thirty nine percent, it's

0:46:05.920 --> 0:46:07.920
<v Speaker 1>very good for the Libs. But have a look at this.

0:46:08.520 --> 0:46:10.680
<v Speaker 1>Blue is the number of seats that have been one

0:46:10.760 --> 0:46:15.440
<v Speaker 1>on primary votes over the years, and sorry are the

0:46:15.520 --> 0:46:19.040
<v Speaker 1>ones that have been one with I should say preferences.

0:46:19.520 --> 0:46:21.279
<v Speaker 1>And then the orange ones are the ones that they

0:46:21.320 --> 0:46:23.239
<v Speaker 1>have won because they've got more than fifty percent of

0:46:23.280 --> 0:46:27.960
<v Speaker 1>the vote. Now that has changed from in two thousand

0:46:28.000 --> 0:46:30.560
<v Speaker 1>and four, eighty nine seats they want on their own

0:46:31.280 --> 0:46:33.080
<v Speaker 1>at this election. Of the polling is the way it is,

0:46:33.160 --> 0:46:35.920
<v Speaker 1>they'll get three. There are three joints in the country

0:46:35.960 --> 0:46:37.919
<v Speaker 1>that will have a fifty to fifty split, which brings

0:46:38.000 --> 0:46:41.480
<v Speaker 1>us to the conversation abound preferences. Now again we know

0:46:41.840 --> 0:46:44.719
<v Speaker 1>that basically add Labour's number with the Greens. That's where

0:46:44.719 --> 0:46:46.440
<v Speaker 1>you're going to get roughly where they are before you

0:46:46.520 --> 0:46:50.160
<v Speaker 1>start getting to left leaning independence. You take the coalition number,

0:46:50.560 --> 0:46:53.480
<v Speaker 1>but can you fully add the one nation number?

0:46:53.840 --> 0:46:53.880
<v Speaker 6>No?

0:46:54.320 --> 0:46:56.759
<v Speaker 1>Why of course? Previously it goes fifty to fifty in

0:46:56.800 --> 0:46:59.320
<v Speaker 1>twenty nineteen. I'm a broken record on this. But in

0:46:59.400 --> 0:47:02.320
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and nineteen, if it goes like seventy thirty,

0:47:03.000 --> 0:47:05.080
<v Speaker 1>well then guess what you can now start to add

0:47:05.160 --> 0:47:07.640
<v Speaker 1>that number on top of the number. And if you're

0:47:07.680 --> 0:47:10.160
<v Speaker 1>at thirty nine or forty or forty one and you've

0:47:10.200 --> 0:47:13.080
<v Speaker 1>got five six seven, well then that gets you obviously

0:47:13.080 --> 0:47:16.440
<v Speaker 1>a whole lot closer to the endgame here. I think

0:47:16.480 --> 0:47:19.080
<v Speaker 1>we may have mentioned it last week, and apologies if

0:47:19.120 --> 0:47:21.920
<v Speaker 1>I didn't get to it, But Michael, I don't think

0:47:21.920 --> 0:47:24.439
<v Speaker 1>there's enough chat about that one nation vote and about

0:47:24.480 --> 0:47:26.759
<v Speaker 1>that one nation vote in and around the polls. We

0:47:26.920 --> 0:47:29.279
<v Speaker 1>know that's a center right vote. We know sometimes it's

0:47:29.280 --> 0:47:30.960
<v Speaker 1>sead of some old school Labour people who don't like

0:47:31.040 --> 0:47:33.560
<v Speaker 1>how woke things have gone. But how important is it?

0:47:33.960 --> 0:47:35.840
<v Speaker 1>And again you've got to balance right. You want to

0:47:35.880 --> 0:47:38.560
<v Speaker 1>hope Pauline in Queensland, but maybe not in Victoria, because

0:47:39.360 --> 0:47:41.720
<v Speaker 1>we know how the lefties interpret that. Personally, I'd tager

0:47:41.840 --> 0:47:42.680
<v Speaker 1>anywhere in the country.

0:47:42.719 --> 0:47:47.239
<v Speaker 5>But your thoughts, Yeah, well, look, I think I think

0:47:47.280 --> 0:47:50.840
<v Speaker 5>in this election conservative voters on the right and that

0:47:51.360 --> 0:47:55.919
<v Speaker 5>that is trumfort of Patriots, One Nation, Liberal Democrats, etc.

0:47:56.880 --> 0:47:59.360
<v Speaker 5>I think my sense is their voters are going to

0:47:59.360 --> 0:48:02.560
<v Speaker 5>be a lot more careful with their preferences, and the

0:48:02.640 --> 0:48:04.880
<v Speaker 5>Coalition are going to win a lot more of their

0:48:04.960 --> 0:48:10.000
<v Speaker 5>preferences than they have in other elections because the right

0:48:10.800 --> 0:48:13.480
<v Speaker 5>coalesce behind Dutton and they low the alban easy for

0:48:13.480 --> 0:48:16.800
<v Speaker 5>a whole lot of reasons. Secondly to John Black's point,

0:48:16.960 --> 0:48:19.480
<v Speaker 5>and you know, John Black is a very serious commentator,

0:48:19.520 --> 0:48:21.680
<v Speaker 5>by the way, and I'll never forget a magnificent article

0:48:21.840 --> 0:48:24.880
<v Speaker 5>right after the nineteen election explaining in detail how and

0:48:24.960 --> 0:48:26.319
<v Speaker 5>what Scott Morrison won that election.

0:48:26.440 --> 0:48:29.920
<v Speaker 1>He was in the fin Review. But commentator and this is.

0:48:31.920 --> 0:48:36.359
<v Speaker 5>Well, no, he's he's a very good, very good writer,

0:48:36.560 --> 0:48:40.600
<v Speaker 5>very good commentator. The point he is making is this, Yeah,

0:48:40.680 --> 0:48:43.080
<v Speaker 5>the percentage of vote for the major parties has gone

0:48:43.120 --> 0:48:46.719
<v Speaker 5>down dramatically in recent years. Contrasts that to America, by

0:48:46.719 --> 0:48:50.120
<v Speaker 5>the way, mate, where in the presidential election ninety eight

0:48:50.160 --> 0:48:53.480
<v Speaker 5>percent of voters voted for other Republicans of the Democrats.

0:48:53.920 --> 0:48:56.279
<v Speaker 5>And there are different reasons for that, but here here

0:48:56.600 --> 0:48:58.960
<v Speaker 5>it's closing on seventy down from high eighties. As John

0:48:59.040 --> 0:49:01.400
<v Speaker 5>Black points out, one of the reasons for that is

0:49:01.400 --> 0:49:03.200
<v Speaker 5>and I blame the hard left for that. In Australia.

0:49:03.560 --> 0:49:07.120
<v Speaker 5>The hard left denigrate Australia. They denigrate the major parties,

0:49:07.200 --> 0:49:09.959
<v Speaker 5>the Greens denigrate the Labor Party, they denigrate the Liberal Party.

0:49:10.480 --> 0:49:13.759
<v Speaker 5>There is a there's no sense of optimism in Australia

0:49:14.080 --> 0:49:14.960
<v Speaker 5>like there is an America.

0:49:15.040 --> 0:49:17.200
<v Speaker 1>Made good point. Thank you lads to do appreciate it.

0:49:17.640 --> 0:49:19.560
<v Speaker 1>I finally there was another hour. But then these books

0:49:19.600 --> 0:49:21.520
<v Speaker 1>will go. Okay, enough, Paul, we're tired. Thank you lads

0:49:21.520 --> 0:49:23.640
<v Speaker 1>to appreciate It'll see you again next week. We'll see

0:49:23.640 --> 0:49:25.200
<v Speaker 1>you tomorrow night for more Paul Murray Life Tonner