Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media.
Speaker 2: I'm Daniel James. This is seven am. Get a bunch
Speaker 2: of people into a room and ask them what they
Speaker 2: think of the Prime minister. That's what posters have been
Speaker 2: doing all year, and hundreds of groups have spoken to
Speaker 2: thousands of people. And the picture that has emerged of
Speaker 2: what the public thinks of Anthony Alberesi isn't pretty, with
Speaker 2: approval ratings approaching to Lowe's Scott Morrison had before being
Speaker 2: voted out of office in twenty twenty two. Perceptions around
Speaker 2: the mansion Alberanese bought the freebies he's accepted, have heard
Speaker 2: him and with an election looming, this spells trouble for
Speaker 2: the PM. Today's special correspondent for the Saturday Paper, Jason
Speaker 2: Kotsukus on the public's dislike of Anthony Albanesi and whether
Speaker 2: he can turn it around. It's Friday, December twenty.
Speaker 1: Jace, thanks for joining us, Daniel, it's great to be
Speaker 1: with you.
Speaker 2: So Anthony Albertezi has been relentlessly focused group this year.
Speaker 2: What's been the top line assessment?
Speaker 3: So right throughout this year we've seen the government's numbers
Speaker 3: in the published opinion polls follow a steady declinient. And
Speaker 3: that's also something that's been reflected in the qualitative research
Speaker 3: that polling companies do, these so called focus groups. And
Speaker 3: Coyle Samaras, who's the director of strategy for Redbridge, I
Speaker 3: spoke to him this week and he told me that
Speaker 3: his company have done about four hundred and fifty focus
Speaker 3: groups this year. And the key message coming out of
Speaker 3: those focus groups, according to Causes, that Anthony Abernezi is
Speaker 3: now where Scott Morrison was as he was approaching what
Speaker 3: turned out to be a pretty magnificant defeat in May
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two.
Speaker 4: Voters consider Anthony Albanesi to be the weakest prime minister
Speaker 4: in decades according to the latest News poll out today.
Speaker 2: So there's the numbers what a people been saying about
Speaker 2: him in these focus groups.
Speaker 3: I think the message that Caause has been hearing is
Speaker 3: that the Prime Minister is constantly having to explain himself
Speaker 3: for things that you know, are slightly difficult for him
Speaker 3: to explain, things like buying the four point three million
Speaker 3: dollar house.
Speaker 5: Anthony Alberizi is the proud new owner of a Central
Speaker 5: Coast beach house worth more than four million dollars, but
Speaker 5: political rivals have hit out at the Prime Minister's purchase
Speaker 5: in the middle of a housing crisis, having.
Speaker 1: To explain his relationship with Alan Joyce.
Speaker 4: I recall direct discussions with Alan Joyce over over the
Speaker 4: flights the Emirates or Quantity.
Speaker 3: Anthian Alberenezi has seen to have a close relationship with
Speaker 3: him and to have accepted upgrades to her Quantus flights
Speaker 3: over all the years.
Speaker 1: That he's been in Parliament.
Speaker 3: He's had to explain why his son Nathan has been
Speaker 3: made a member of the Chairman's lodge.
Speaker 2: Aston broke the stories about the Quantus Chairman's club membership
Speaker 2: for Albaneze's son, the sweetheart deal as Darton calls it,
Speaker 2: with Quantas over Katar.
Speaker 3: These are things that Anthony Albanezi would rather not be
Speaker 3: talking about. And this is gradually sort of dragged down
Speaker 3: his kind of popularity with voters, and people are saying
Speaker 3: that perhaps this Prime Minister is not really focused on
Speaker 3: solving the problems that really matter to us, where the
Speaker 3: main problem is housing affordability. So I think that's the
Speaker 3: main takeout from causes focus groups.
Speaker 2: And it sounds like some of the criticism has been
Speaker 2: quite personal as well.
Speaker 3: That's right, people are. You know, they came to see
Speaker 3: Scott Morrison as too trickier a politician, a politician they
Speaker 3: couldn't really trust, But there was still this kind of
Speaker 3: residual respect for the personal side of Scott Morrison. There
Speaker 3: was nothing about Scott Morrison's personal life that voters really
Speaker 3: sort of disagreed with.
Speaker 1: They thought he was an honorable dad.
Speaker 4: I'm here with Lily and we are here to build
Speaker 4: a cubby house today and here we go.
Speaker 1: We've been to Bunnings.
Speaker 3: But perhaps you know that's not the case with Anthony Albanezi,
Speaker 3: that they see him as someone who's buying mansions, getting freebies,
Speaker 3: and I think that's starting to affect people's voting intentions.
Speaker 2: So how does the perception of Anthony Albanezi now compared
Speaker 2: to when he won the twenty twenty two election.
Speaker 1: Well, if you look at the.
Speaker 3: Like the averages of all the published opinion polls, what
Speaker 3: we see now is that there's quite a big gap
Speaker 3: in the two party preferred vote. The Guardian runs a
Speaker 3: poll average and they've got the current two party preferred
Speaker 3: vote for the Coalition at around fifty two and a
Speaker 3: half point compared to forty seven and a half points
Speaker 3: for Labor. So that's quite a big gap five points
Speaker 3: and if that's our people actually voted in the next
Speaker 3: federal election, then that would be a landslide victory for
Speaker 3: Peter Dutton. Now, I don't think things are really that
Speaker 3: bad for Labor and for the Prime Minister yet, but
Speaker 3: things are at a very dangerous inflection point for the
Speaker 3: prime minister right now.
Speaker 2: How did it go so wrong?
Speaker 3: Well, one of the people that I spoke to for
Speaker 3: this story was Paul Stranger, the emeritus professor of Politics
Speaker 3: at Monish University. And according to Paul, there's an entrenched
Speaker 3: view now of Anthony Albanesi as a well intentioned politician,
Speaker 3: but someone who's also insipid and weak and more a
Speaker 3: hostage to events rather than a shaper of them. And
Speaker 3: now that as we approach the end of this current
Speaker 3: three year term of government, because you know of Albanesi's
Speaker 3: leadership style, the government is finishing its term without a
Speaker 3: signature landmark reform, and that you know that there's this
Speaker 3: kind of impression of a government that's engaged in a
Speaker 3: maintenance project rather than a government that's embarked on an
Speaker 3: art of filled mission. An issue that really is bedeviling
Speaker 3: social democratic parties worldwide.
Speaker 1: And even though we had a deli aage of legislation in.
Speaker 3: The final week of the parliamentary year, that's really done
Speaker 3: nothing to fundamentally alter the picture that voters have of
Speaker 3: of Albanesi.
Speaker 2: And he's been in Parliament for a long time. He's
Speaker 2: elected in nineteen ninety six. Does that ply into his
Speaker 2: image problems in terms of being seen as part of
Speaker 2: the political class that has caused a lot of these
Speaker 2: structural issues for the Australian economy.
Speaker 1: I think that's absolutely right.
Speaker 3: He's been in parliament so long that it becomes very difficult,
Speaker 3: I think, to really stay in touch with the needs
Speaker 3: of ordinary people, and I think you come to believe
Speaker 3: that your judgment is better than everyone else's, and it
Speaker 3: becomes very difficult to take advice to listen when people
Speaker 3: question your judgment.
Speaker 1: And I think it's almost certain.
Speaker 3: That if he does hang on and remain Prime Minister
Speaker 3: after the election, it will be in a minority government
Speaker 3: that he forms with members of the cross Bench. But
Speaker 3: it's also quite possible that he won't get enough seats
Speaker 3: to even form a minority government, and that Peter Utton
Speaker 3: ends up being the one most likely to be able
Speaker 3: to form a government after the election and become Prime minister.
Speaker 2: After the break. Why Peter Dutton isn't as unpopular as
Speaker 2: you think, So, Jason, we've been talking about how the
Speaker 2: public views Anthony Albanezi at this moment. Let's just talk
Speaker 2: a bit more about how voters view Peter Dutton as
Speaker 2: the alternative prime minister.
Speaker 3: Well I spoke to a senior Liberal Party official who
Speaker 3: has seen a lot of the research that the Liberal
Speaker 3: Party is doing, and one of the things that is
Speaker 3: really coming through in the coalition's research is that this
Speaker 3: idea that Peter Dutton is unelectable is not true anymore
Speaker 3: if it was ever true and out of step with
Speaker 3: current voter sentiment. And you know, while Peter Dutton does
Speaker 3: have that kind of quite severe look when you first
Speaker 3: look at Peter Dutton, you might think gets it's difficult
Speaker 3: to like this person. But people have started to certainly
Speaker 3: respect Peter Dutton for who he is, as someone that
Speaker 3: does have a stronger and clearer idea of where he
Speaker 3: wants to take the country. And when you look at
Speaker 3: the Freshwater pole that was published in the Financial Review
Speaker 3: earlier this month, we saw Anthony Albanesi's net approval is
Speaker 3: now at minus seventeen. That's a thirty four point declinient
Speaker 3: since twenty twenty two, while Peter Dutton's approval is improved
Speaker 3: by six points over the same period to minus three.
Speaker 3: So he's kind of a net fourteen points ahead of
Speaker 3: Anthony Alberzi when it comes to net approval.
Speaker 2: Okay, So we have these different perceptions of the leader
Speaker 2: of the opposition and the Prime minister. Do you have
Speaker 2: any sense of how this might translate electorally.
Speaker 3: Look, I think it's really difficult to project who's going
Speaker 3: to win the election because elections are always close, the
Speaker 3: polls always tightened as we get closer to polling day.
Speaker 3: And this is a government that's still in its first term.
Speaker 3: And we've never had a one term government since Joseph
Speaker 3: Scullen was Prime Minister in nineteen thirty one, and it
Speaker 3: took the Great Depression to toss his government out after
Speaker 3: one term.
Speaker 2: I remember it well, and I don't.
Speaker 3: Think anyone thinks that the economy is as bad today
Speaker 3: as it was in the early nineteen thirties, But we
Speaker 3: can't rely on historical precedent to say that that's going
Speaker 3: to guarantee Anthony Albinezi a second term of government. The
Speaker 3: other thing to remember is that his majority in the
Speaker 3: House of Representatives is only two seats that when he
Speaker 3: won that May twenty twenty two election. Yes, he did
Speaker 3: win enough seats to form a majority in his own right,
Speaker 3: but it was the slimmest majority that we've seen for
Speaker 3: an incoming government in a very long time.
Speaker 1: And I think, yeah, with that margin.
Speaker 3: Of only two seats, it's very difficult to see how
Speaker 3: it can hang on to majority government. It seems to
Speaker 3: me that minority government is the most likely outcome, but
Speaker 3: whether it's a minority government with Anthony Albanesi at the
Speaker 3: top or Peter Dutton, it's probably too difficult to tell
Speaker 3: at this point.
Speaker 2: So it says so much is actually hanging on the
Speaker 2: type of campaign Albanesi will run.
Speaker 1: What can we.
Speaker 2: Expect from the campaign and Albanese's ability to cut through well.
Speaker 3: I think that's one of the things that Anthony Albanezi
Speaker 3: has on his side, Paul Erickson, who is the National
Speaker 3: Secretary of the ALP, and that the campaign team that
Speaker 3: he has built around him are very good campaigners. Anthony
Speaker 3: Albanezi himself is not a great campaigner. We saw that
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two when perhaps the best moments of
Speaker 3: the campaign for Labor was when Anthony Albanezi had to
Speaker 3: take himself off the field because he got COVID.
Speaker 1: Were we ready to rock and roll?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 1: Well, the boss has got the boat, so you got mate.
Speaker 1: I just spoke to Albow and he's doing okay. He's
Speaker 1: also got a pretty strong front bench.
Speaker 3: When you look at some of the people who are
Speaker 3: in the ministry now and you compare that to Peter
Speaker 3: Dutton's front bench, then you'd probably say that Peter Dutton's
Speaker 3: team is not quite ready for government yet.
Speaker 1: So that's another advantage. I think that the PMAs.
Speaker 2: And finally Jason, when it comes to turning that negative
Speaker 2: approval around. What's Anthony Albanese's biggest challenge now? How can
Speaker 2: he start to change people's minds.
Speaker 3: I think one thing that the government would be hoping
Speaker 3: for between now and polling day is that the Reserve
Speaker 3: Bank will cut interest rates. But in terms of what
Speaker 3: Albanese can do to change voters' perceptions of him, I
Speaker 3: don't think there really is much that he can do.
Speaker 3: As we said before, he's been in Parliament for nearly
Speaker 3: thirty years. People know who he is, they know what
Speaker 3: he stands for, and think Albaneze has really got to
Speaker 3: try and hope that he can offer a set of
Speaker 3: policies that offers more hope and more optimism than what
Speaker 3: Peter Dutton's going to come up with. Albaneze can say
Speaker 3: that he is genuinely trying to tackle the climate crisis.
Speaker 1: He did get a lot of legislation through last.
Speaker 3: Year which he's going to hope will start to make
Speaker 3: a difference when it comes to things like the housing crisis.
Speaker 3: There are other things that the government has done on
Speaker 3: things like medicare.
Speaker 1: So I think the key thing.
Speaker 3: For Albanezi and his government is to be able to
Speaker 3: offer a vision that is more optimistic, more positive than
Speaker 3: what Peter Dutton will be offering during the election campaign.
Speaker 2: Well let's just watch this space. Jason, thank you so
Speaker 2: much for your time.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Daniel, always great to talk to you.
Speaker 2: Also in the news today, the Federal government has announced
Speaker 2: its offering low interest loans on electric vehicles valued up
Speaker 2: to fifty five thousand dollars. Loans will be offered at
Speaker 2: interest rates up to five percentage points lower than standard
Speaker 2: for workers earning less than one hundred thousand dollars a year,
Speaker 2: as well as essentil workers such as teachers, nurses and
Speaker 2: emergency workers regardless of income. Commonwealth Bankers currently offering the
Speaker 2: loan through their ev Access program, and Australia's embassy and
Speaker 2: Kiev were reopening the new year. Foreign Affairs Minister Pennywong
Speaker 2: made the announcement during a trip to Ukraine, where he
Speaker 2: also visited the site of the embassy that was closed
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
Speaker 2: Seven Am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and
Speaker 2: The Saturday Paper. He's made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson,
Speaker 2: Chris Dangate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah mcveee, Travis Evans,
Speaker 2: Zoltan Vecchio and myself Daniel James. This is our final
Speaker 2: regular episode of the year. Over the next three weeks
Speaker 2: will be bringing you our summer series. Next week, you'll
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Speaker 2: their favorite content from twenty twenty four, from books to
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