Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM.
Speaker 1: A week ago, most pundits were betting on a hung parliament. Instead,
Speaker 1: Labour has claimed one of the biggest majorities in modern history,
Speaker 1: eclipsing even Bob Hawke's first term result. Anthony Albinezi now
Speaker 1: commands near unquestioned authority inside his party, but a celebrations settle,
Speaker 1: questions are already beginning to emerge about how his government
Speaker 1: will handle this mandate and the risk of hubris that
Speaker 1: comes with it. Today columnists for the Saturday Paper Paul
Speaker 1: bon Jorno on the ins and outs of Labour's historic
Speaker 1: win and how quickly triumph can turn to trouble. It's Friday,
Speaker 1: May nine, Paul, what a difference a week makes. Last
Speaker 1: week we're taking predictions and most bets were on a
Speaker 1: hung parliament. So do you think the enormity of the
Speaker 1: win has started the sinking? Yet? For Labor people that
Speaker 1: you've been speaking.
Speaker 2: With, well, it is quite extraordinary. For one thing, Anthony
Speaker 2: Alberanizi has returned the best election result of a Labor
Speaker 2: leader since the war, better than Labor hero's wartime heroes
Speaker 2: Curtain and Chiffley and even better than Bob Hawk, so
Speaker 2: it's historic from that point of view. Labor was always
Speaker 2: considered to be on track to win either in minority
Speaker 2: or majority. Although I was talking to Wayne Swan, president
Speaker 2: of the Labor Party, here and he did confirm to
Speaker 2: me that Labour's polling had them on track for majority
Speaker 2: government basically from the beginning of the campaign. But he
Speaker 2: had to admit they knew there was a swing, but
Speaker 2: they didn't think it'd be that big. In other words,
Speaker 2: maybe eighty seats, but what are we heading for now.
Speaker 2: The prediction is they'll get to ninety maybe ninety two,
Speaker 2: and that's the sort of landslide you saw from are
Speaker 2: John Howard or Tony Abbott in twenty thirteen, and the
Speaker 2: enormity there thrills them, but it certainly took them by surprise.
Speaker 1: Given the size of the win. We've heard a lot
Speaker 1: about the mandate Albanizi now has. So what is he
Speaker 1: said this week about his first priorities in the second term.
Speaker 3: It is great to have the honor of being back
Speaker 3: in the Prime Minister's courtyard and I do want to
Speaker 3: thank the Australian people for the very clear mandate that
Speaker 3: they've given my government.
Speaker 2: Well is he's done a couple of things actually right
Speaker 2: from the word go on Saturday night and through a
Speaker 2: big news conference he did in the Prime Minister's courtyard
Speaker 2: on Monday. The first thing he does is he's humble, right.
Speaker 3: I promised to be a prime minister for all Australians,
Speaker 3: those who voted Labor those who didn't, and hope to
Speaker 3: earn the trust of the Australian people on an ongoing basis.
Speaker 3: We are deeply humble by the result on Saturday and
Speaker 3: we don't take a second of it for granted.
Speaker 2: I'm not getting carried away. It's steady as you go.
Speaker 2: The way the Labor government acted in the first term
Speaker 2: is the way it's going to act in this term.
Speaker 4: Look, we're not getting ahead of ourselves. I didn't get
Speaker 4: ahead of myself in the last three years. We had
Speaker 4: a clear mandate to government. We had a lot to
Speaker 4: turn around.
Speaker 2: He will endeavor to fulfill the mandate that he got
Speaker 2: from the people, and he's said that there'll be no
Speaker 2: shocks or surprises. Now my reading of that is on taxation,
Speaker 2: for example, everyone believes that there's some more should be
Speaker 2: done on taxation, especially the multi billion dollar concessions on
Speaker 2: negative gearing and capital gains tax. Unless there is built
Speaker 2: up an enormous political pressure for the government to do that,
Speaker 2: you won't see it do it.
Speaker 1: And of course everyone loves a winner, Paul, especially one
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. He said this week that Albanezy is very
Speaker 1: good and that the two are friendly. I don't know
Speaker 1: Albanise I'm very friendly with I haven't hadn't know about
Speaker 1: the election, other than he's very good, You're a.
Speaker 5: Friend of mine.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, he said that he has no
Speaker 1: idea who the person is who ran against him, which
Speaker 1: must have been a bit brutiful. Peter Dutton, But what
Speaker 1: is the task for Albanzi now when it comes to
Speaker 1: managing our relationship with the United States.
Speaker 2: Well, I've been fascinated to see how Alberzi has already
Speaker 2: begun to manage this even before the election. You might
Speaker 2: remember they played a word game with Albanizi and Dutton.
Speaker 2: I think it was on Channel seven. Mark Riley put
Speaker 2: to him when I say, Donald Trump, what do you think?
Speaker 2: And Albanezi immediately said President. So in other words, Alberanizi
Speaker 2: wants to keep this on a business footing.
Speaker 6: I mean, so, were there any promises from Donald Trump
Speaker 6: in your discussion this morning, especially when it comes to tariffs.
Speaker 3: Well, it was a very warm discussion about the friendship
Speaker 3: between our two nations. That's so important. I've had three
Speaker 3: conversations with the President. I won't go into all of
Speaker 3: the personal comments that he made, but it was very generous.
Speaker 2: He understands that he's the Prime Minister of Australia dealing
Speaker 2: with our principal strategic partner, and he it has to
Speaker 2: manage this partner in such a way that any damage
Speaker 2: to the relationship comes not from the Australian side, but
Speaker 2: from the American side. And I think in this there's
Speaker 2: a big difference between US and Canada. What Trump's doing
Speaker 2: with Canada is directly damaging to Canada, while what he's
Speaker 2: done to us, in a sense, he's already given us
Speaker 2: a concession by hitting us only with ten percent tariffs
Speaker 2: and not higher ones. Although Albanizi, and this is interesting
Speaker 2: to note as well, his response to that was not
Speaker 2: to say, oh good, he good, he didn't hit as harder,
Speaker 2: but to point out that that was not the act
Speaker 2: of a friend. Alberanizi really is a bit of a
Speaker 2: rough diamond. In many, many ways, but it is clear
Speaker 2: from his history and politics and people who do deal
Speaker 2: with him whether they're independence. Indeed, Adam Bant the Green
Speaker 2: said this during the campaign, alb an extremely good negotiator.
Speaker 2: So that's the approach I think that we're going to
Speaker 2: see going forward from him in regard to the American
Speaker 2: Alliance and our relationship with the mercurial Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: As he said Paul albin Az, he wants to stay
Speaker 1: humble and not get ahead of himself. But given the
Speaker 1: scale of Labour's majority, is there a risk that he
Speaker 1: actually could start getting ahead of himself.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, look, there's absolutely no doubt that all of
Speaker 2: the doubts that were fueled by the very bad campaign
Speaker 2: he ran in twenty twenty two that sapped him of
Speaker 2: authority within the Labor caucus the Labor Party. But now
Speaker 2: that he's had this massive win backing his own assessment
Speaker 2: of how Labor could win, his authority within the broader
Speaker 2: Labor Party has been mightily enhanced. Are you worried about Hubris?
Speaker 3: Oh, what I'm concerned about is making sure that we
Speaker 3: seize the opportunity that we have to take this country forward.
Speaker 3: We have an opportunity to renew faith in our democracy.
Speaker 2: I think it suffered now while we're hearing all the
Speaker 2: right things from Anthony Albanisi, how he's not going to
Speaker 2: get ahead of himself, how he's humble and he's here
Speaker 2: to serve. As when senior Cabinet minister said to me,
Speaker 2: politicians can start to believe their own mythologies.
Speaker 1: After the break the election surprise winners and losers.
Speaker 6: A short time ago, I called the Labor candidate for Melbourne,
Speaker 6: Sarah Whitty, to concede, to congratulate her and to wish
Speaker 6: her all the best as the next member for Melbourne, Paul.
Speaker 1: We heard this week that Green's leader Adam Bandt has
Speaker 1: lost his seat, the seat of Melbourne, which he held
Speaker 1: for fourteen years. What do you make of that result
Speaker 1: and what impact will it have?
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting in one sense. The result for the
Speaker 2: Greens in the Lower House has been a disaster. Bans
Speaker 2: primary vote fell four percent in his seat and Labour's
Speaker 2: primary vote came up six But what we've also should note,
Speaker 2: not only in Victoria but up in Queensland as well,
Speaker 2: the Liberals preference to Labor not the Greens.
Speaker 6: We needed to overcome Liberal Labor and one nation combined.
Speaker 6: And it's an everest that we've climbed a few times now,
Speaker 6: but this time we fell just short.
Speaker 2: The other point is it really puts the Greens back
Speaker 2: to what you might call to keep the Bastard's Honors party,
Speaker 2: the balance of power party in the Senate, and the
Speaker 2: Greens come back to the Senate with all their senators
Speaker 2: in place and with the balance of power in their
Speaker 2: own right. In other words, if Labour wants to get
Speaker 2: legislation through, it can do it either by negotiating directly
Speaker 2: with the coalition, but if the coalitions playing hard to
Speaker 2: get then the eleven Greens can deliver the votes.
Speaker 1: And there of course are a number of other seats
Speaker 1: that are on a nice age. This week the Liberals
Speaker 1: have clawed back some ground and some key contests with
Speaker 1: the Teals. So how significant has that been.
Speaker 2: Well, you'd have to say it's pretty significant, certainly from
Speaker 2: the Liberals point of view, that they were given a
Speaker 2: slither of light in the Teal held seat of Goldstein
Speaker 2: in Melbourne.
Speaker 5: I'm very proud, deep Bread, deep Bread, genuinely very proud
Speaker 5: to say that we are pleased to accept that we
Speaker 5: have one the seat Goldstein.
Speaker 2: Pack Zoey Daniel Atteel Independent, they're defeated by the former
Speaker 2: Liberal incumbent Tim Wilson. Now that's important for a few reasons,
Speaker 2: especially for the Liberals. First of all, it gives them
Speaker 2: something to be happy about. But Tim Wilson is quite
Speaker 2: a political operator. I noticed that Jeff Kenned in an
Speaker 2: interview in Melbourne on Thursday, described Wilson as an attack
Speaker 2: dog back in the twenty nineteen election. He was the
Speaker 2: one who he effectively ran the campaign against Bill Shorten
Speaker 2: on franking credits. He'll come back into the Parliament, he
Speaker 2: won't be in government anymore, so he won't have all
Speaker 2: those levers to pull, but I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 2: maybe they even make him deputy leader. We'll just have
Speaker 2: to wait and see on that. But look more broadly,
Speaker 2: what we've seen in the Strand Capital territory. The safe
Speaker 2: seat with a fourteen percent margin of Bean is still
Speaker 2: teetering to a Teal Independent. But it also happened over
Speaker 2: in Perth in the traditionally safe labor seat of Fremantle.
Speaker 2: Now it looks like Labor will hang on there, but
Speaker 2: rather than having a you know, a twenty percent or
Speaker 2: sixteen percent margin. It's down to one or under one percent.
Speaker 2: Then we go to New South Wales. We see that
Speaker 2: three of the Teal independents hung on and we see
Speaker 2: that in the seat of Bradfield it looks like the
Speaker 2: Liberals might just scrape over the line. Interestingly, in that seat,
Speaker 2: the former incumbent, a white, middle aged man. He quit
Speaker 2: the seat and the Liberals endorsed a woman and she
Speaker 2: ran the sort of campaign in Bradfield that the Teals run.
Speaker 2: So neither of the major parties can rest on their laurels.
Speaker 2: They all now have to treat every seat as one
Speaker 2: that they may well lose if they don't perform.
Speaker 1: So the Independence and the Teals are here to stay.
Speaker 1: What role will they play in this parliament though, given
Speaker 1: Labour's massive majority.
Speaker 2: Well in the House of Representatives, not a key role.
Speaker 2: I mean Labor will be able to get everything at
Speaker 2: once through the House of Representatives. However, what we did
Speaker 2: see in the first term, of course Labor had a majority,
Speaker 2: but it was only a single seat majority. After they
Speaker 2: appointed the Speaker, Albanzi went out of his way to
Speaker 2: interact with the Teals, even engineered often that the teals
Speaker 2: would be allowed to or encourage to amend government legislation.
Speaker 2: So I think what we're going to see is more
Speaker 2: of that from the Albanzi government in the lower house,
Speaker 2: bit of insurance in that. But also I think Albanezi
Speaker 2: is very keen to show that he runs an inclusive
Speaker 2: government and this will be key of course to him
Speaker 2: not getting too big for his boots, as we were
Speaker 2: talking about a bit earlier.
Speaker 1: And finally, Paul Labour now commands a huge majority, but
Speaker 1: history shows us how quickly big majorities can sour. Is
Speaker 1: there a danger that could happen?
Speaker 2: Absolutely, there is a danger for it. You might remember
Speaker 2: that Tony Abbott in twenty thirteen, he had ninety seats
Speaker 2: in the House of Representatives, had a massive landslide, but
Speaker 2: his own party room got rid of him within a
Speaker 2: year after he and Joe Hockey's treasurer brought in a
Speaker 2: budget that broke every promise they made and was brutal austerity.
Speaker 7: Do you need to apologize to the public and say, yeah,
Speaker 7: I'll let you down, I did lie to you, I
Speaker 7: did break a lot of promises, but hey, I'm going
Speaker 7: to rebuild from him. Well, Koshi, obviously we are determined
Speaker 7: to improve on these things. But no one said the
Speaker 7: task of budget repair was going to be easy.
Speaker 2: There's even history going back to Paul Keating who won
Speaker 2: the sweetest victory of all. Keating had close to a
Speaker 2: one hundred ninety a seat majority then, but he was
Speaker 2: wiped out by John Howard three years later. There is
Speaker 2: one difference in my view here, however, the elections that
Speaker 2: saw Labor defeated by Howard and then Tony Abbott were
Speaker 2: at the end of a very tired old Labor government
Speaker 2: that had pulled itself apart over egos, not over policy,
Speaker 2: not over direction, not over identity. So once Labour sorted
Speaker 2: out the egos this time, we really do have the
Speaker 2: Liberal Party looking like it's in its death throws unless
Speaker 2: it really does come to terms with who it is,
Speaker 2: what it wants to be, and whether it wants to
Speaker 2: look to Sir but Menzies order, Peter Kredlin and Sky after.
Speaker 1: Dark, Paul, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Daniel Bye.
Speaker 1: Also in the news, MPs have arrived in Canberra ahead
Speaker 1: of Labour's first caucus meeting in Parliament House later today,
Speaker 1: where the Prime Minister is expected to finalize his next ministry, Albaneze.
Speaker 1: He says he expects the new ministry to be sworn
Speaker 1: in at Government House on Tuesday next week. And Peter
Speaker 1: Dutton has made his first public appearance since losing his
Speaker 1: seat in Parliament, returning the Canberra to briefly thank his supporters.
Speaker 1: When asked to comment on he should replace him, the
Speaker 1: former Opposition leader said he would maintain a dignified silence.
Speaker 1: Seven Am is a daily show from Schwartz Media in
Speaker 1: a Saturday paper. It's made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson,
Speaker 1: Chris Dangate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McPhee, Travis Evans,
Speaker 1: Zoltenfetcho and me Daniel James. Our theme music is by
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Speaker 1: will be back on Monday. Have a great weekend.