WEBVTT - Anthony Albanese’s next big test

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM.

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<v Speaker 1>A week ago, most pundits were betting on a hung parliament. Instead,

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<v Speaker 1>Labour has claimed one of the biggest majorities in modern history,

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<v Speaker 1>eclipsing even Bob Hawke's first term result. Anthony Albinezi now

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<v Speaker 1>commands near unquestioned authority inside his party, but a celebrations settle,

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<v Speaker 1>questions are already beginning to emerge about how his government

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<v Speaker 1>will handle this mandate and the risk of hubris that

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<v Speaker 1>comes with it. Today columnists for the Saturday Paper Paul

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<v Speaker 1>bon Jorno on the ins and outs of Labour's historic

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<v Speaker 1>win and how quickly triumph can turn to trouble. It's Friday,

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<v Speaker 1>May nine, Paul, what a difference a week makes. Last

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<v Speaker 1>week we're taking predictions and most bets were on a

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<v Speaker 1>hung parliament. So do you think the enormity of the

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<v Speaker 1>win has started the sinking? Yet? For Labor people that

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<v Speaker 1>you've been speaking.

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<v Speaker 2>With, well, it is quite extraordinary. For one thing, Anthony

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<v Speaker 2>Alberanizi has returned the best election result of a Labor

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<v Speaker 2>leader since the war, better than Labor hero's wartime heroes

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<v Speaker 2>Curtain and Chiffley and even better than Bob Hawk, so

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<v Speaker 2>it's historic from that point of view. Labor was always

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<v Speaker 2>considered to be on track to win either in minority

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<v Speaker 2>or majority. Although I was talking to Wayne Swan, president

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<v Speaker 2>of the Labor Party, here and he did confirm to

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<v Speaker 2>me that Labour's polling had them on track for majority

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<v Speaker 2>government basically from the beginning of the campaign. But he

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<v Speaker 2>had to admit they knew there was a swing, but

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<v Speaker 2>they didn't think it'd be that big. In other words,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe eighty seats, but what are we heading for now.

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<v Speaker 2>The prediction is they'll get to ninety maybe ninety two,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's the sort of landslide you saw from are

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<v Speaker 2>John Howard or Tony Abbott in twenty thirteen, and the

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<v Speaker 2>enormity there thrills them, but it certainly took them by surprise.

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<v Speaker 1>Given the size of the win. We've heard a lot

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<v Speaker 1>about the mandate Albanizi now has. So what is he

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<v Speaker 1>said this week about his first priorities in the second term.

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<v Speaker 3>It is great to have the honor of being back

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<v Speaker 3>in the Prime Minister's courtyard and I do want to

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<v Speaker 3>thank the Australian people for the very clear mandate that

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<v Speaker 3>they've given my government.

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<v Speaker 2>Well is he's done a couple of things actually right

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<v Speaker 2>from the word go on Saturday night and through a

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<v Speaker 2>big news conference he did in the Prime Minister's courtyard

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<v Speaker 2>on Monday. The first thing he does is he's humble, right.

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<v Speaker 3>I promised to be a prime minister for all Australians,

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<v Speaker 3>those who voted Labor those who didn't, and hope to

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<v Speaker 3>earn the trust of the Australian people on an ongoing basis.

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<v Speaker 3>We are deeply humble by the result on Saturday and

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<v Speaker 3>we don't take a second of it for granted.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not getting carried away. It's steady as you go.

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<v Speaker 2>The way the Labor government acted in the first term

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<v Speaker 2>is the way it's going to act in this term.

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<v Speaker 4>Look, we're not getting ahead of ourselves. I didn't get

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<v Speaker 4>ahead of myself in the last three years. We had

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<v Speaker 4>a clear mandate to government. We had a lot to

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<v Speaker 4>turn around.

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<v Speaker 2>He will endeavor to fulfill the mandate that he got

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<v Speaker 2>from the people, and he's said that there'll be no

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<v Speaker 2>shocks or surprises. Now my reading of that is on taxation,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, everyone believes that there's some more should be

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<v Speaker 2>done on taxation, especially the multi billion dollar concessions on

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<v Speaker 2>negative gearing and capital gains tax. Unless there is built

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<v Speaker 2>up an enormous political pressure for the government to do that,

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<v Speaker 2>you won't see it do it.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course everyone loves a winner, Paul, especially one

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump. He said this week that Albanezy is very

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<v Speaker 1>good and that the two are friendly. I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>Albanise I'm very friendly with I haven't hadn't know about

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<v Speaker 1>the election, other than he's very good, You're a.

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<v Speaker 5>Friend of mine.

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<v Speaker 1>On the other hand, he said that he has no

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<v Speaker 1>idea who the person is who ran against him, which

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<v Speaker 1>must have been a bit brutiful. Peter Dutton, But what

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<v Speaker 1>is the task for Albanzi now when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>managing our relationship with the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I've been fascinated to see how Alberzi has already

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<v Speaker 2>begun to manage this even before the election. You might

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<v Speaker 2>remember they played a word game with Albanizi and Dutton.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was on Channel seven. Mark Riley put

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<v Speaker 2>to him when I say, Donald Trump, what do you think?

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<v Speaker 2>And Albanezi immediately said President. So in other words, Alberanizi

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<v Speaker 2>wants to keep this on a business footing.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, so, were there any promises from Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 6>in your discussion this morning, especially when it comes to tariffs.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it was a very warm discussion about the friendship

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<v Speaker 3>between our two nations. That's so important. I've had three

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<v Speaker 3>conversations with the President. I won't go into all of

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<v Speaker 3>the personal comments that he made, but it was very generous.

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<v Speaker 2>He understands that he's the Prime Minister of Australia dealing

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<v Speaker 2>with our principal strategic partner, and he it has to

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<v Speaker 2>manage this partner in such a way that any damage

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<v Speaker 2>to the relationship comes not from the Australian side, but

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<v Speaker 2>from the American side. And I think in this there's

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<v Speaker 2>a big difference between US and Canada. What Trump's doing

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<v Speaker 2>with Canada is directly damaging to Canada, while what he's

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<v Speaker 2>done to us, in a sense, he's already given us

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<v Speaker 2>a concession by hitting us only with ten percent tariffs

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<v Speaker 2>and not higher ones. Although Albanizi, and this is interesting

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<v Speaker 2>to note as well, his response to that was not

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<v Speaker 2>to say, oh good, he good, he didn't hit as harder,

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<v Speaker 2>but to point out that that was not the act

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<v Speaker 2>of a friend. Alberanizi really is a bit of a

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<v Speaker 2>rough diamond. In many, many ways, but it is clear

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<v Speaker 2>from his history and politics and people who do deal

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<v Speaker 2>with him whether they're independence. Indeed, Adam Bant the Green

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<v Speaker 2>said this during the campaign, alb an extremely good negotiator.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's the approach I think that we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>see going forward from him in regard to the American

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<v Speaker 2>Alliance and our relationship with the mercurial Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>As he said Paul albin Az, he wants to stay

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<v Speaker 1>humble and not get ahead of himself. But given the

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<v Speaker 1>scale of Labour's majority, is there a risk that he

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<v Speaker 1>actually could start getting ahead of himself.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Well, look, there's absolutely no doubt that all of

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<v Speaker 2>the doubts that were fueled by the very bad campaign

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<v Speaker 2>he ran in twenty twenty two that sapped him of

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<v Speaker 2>authority within the Labor caucus the Labor Party. But now

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<v Speaker 2>that he's had this massive win backing his own assessment

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<v Speaker 2>of how Labor could win, his authority within the broader

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<v Speaker 2>Labor Party has been mightily enhanced. Are you worried about Hubris?

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, what I'm concerned about is making sure that we

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<v Speaker 3>seize the opportunity that we have to take this country forward.

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<v Speaker 3>We have an opportunity to renew faith in our democracy.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it suffered now while we're hearing all the

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<v Speaker 2>right things from Anthony Albanisi, how he's not going to

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<v Speaker 2>get ahead of himself, how he's humble and he's here

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<v Speaker 2>to serve. As when senior Cabinet minister said to me,

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<v Speaker 2>politicians can start to believe their own mythologies.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break the election surprise winners and losers.

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<v Speaker 6>A short time ago, I called the Labor candidate for Melbourne,

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<v Speaker 6>Sarah Whitty, to concede, to congratulate her and to wish

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<v Speaker 6>her all the best as the next member for Melbourne, Paul.

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<v Speaker 1>We heard this week that Green's leader Adam Bandt has

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<v Speaker 1>lost his seat, the seat of Melbourne, which he held

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<v Speaker 1>for fourteen years. What do you make of that result

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<v Speaker 1>and what impact will it have?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's interesting in one sense. The result for the

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<v Speaker 2>Greens in the Lower House has been a disaster. Bans

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<v Speaker 2>primary vote fell four percent in his seat and Labour's

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<v Speaker 2>primary vote came up six But what we've also should note,

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<v Speaker 2>not only in Victoria but up in Queensland as well,

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberals preference to Labor not the Greens.

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<v Speaker 6>We needed to overcome Liberal Labor and one nation combined.

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<v Speaker 6>And it's an everest that we've climbed a few times now,

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<v Speaker 6>but this time we fell just short.

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<v Speaker 2>The other point is it really puts the Greens back

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<v Speaker 2>to what you might call to keep the Bastard's Honors party,

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<v Speaker 2>the balance of power party in the Senate, and the

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<v Speaker 2>Greens come back to the Senate with all their senators

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<v Speaker 2>in place and with the balance of power in their

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<v Speaker 2>own right. In other words, if Labour wants to get

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<v Speaker 2>legislation through, it can do it either by negotiating directly

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<v Speaker 2>with the coalition, but if the coalitions playing hard to

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<v Speaker 2>get then the eleven Greens can deliver the votes.

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<v Speaker 1>And there of course are a number of other seats

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<v Speaker 1>that are on a nice age. This week the Liberals

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<v Speaker 1>have clawed back some ground and some key contests with

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<v Speaker 1>the Teals. So how significant has that been.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you'd have to say it's pretty significant, certainly from

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberals point of view, that they were given a

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<v Speaker 2>slither of light in the Teal held seat of Goldstein

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<v Speaker 2>in Melbourne.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm very proud, deep Bread, deep Bread, genuinely very proud

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<v Speaker 5>to say that we are pleased to accept that we

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<v Speaker 5>have one the seat Goldstein.

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<v Speaker 2>Pack Zoey Daniel Atteel Independent, they're defeated by the former

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal incumbent Tim Wilson. Now that's important for a few reasons,

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<v Speaker 2>especially for the Liberals. First of all, it gives them

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<v Speaker 2>something to be happy about. But Tim Wilson is quite

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<v Speaker 2>a political operator. I noticed that Jeff Kenned in an

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<v Speaker 2>interview in Melbourne on Thursday, described Wilson as an attack

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<v Speaker 2>dog back in the twenty nineteen election. He was the

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<v Speaker 2>one who he effectively ran the campaign against Bill Shorten

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<v Speaker 2>on franking credits. He'll come back into the Parliament, he

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<v Speaker 2>won't be in government anymore, so he won't have all

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<v Speaker 2>those levers to pull, but I wouldn't be surprised if

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<v Speaker 2>maybe they even make him deputy leader. We'll just have

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<v Speaker 2>to wait and see on that. But look more broadly,

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<v Speaker 2>what we've seen in the Strand Capital territory. The safe

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<v Speaker 2>seat with a fourteen percent margin of Bean is still

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<v Speaker 2>teetering to a Teal Independent. But it also happened over

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<v Speaker 2>in Perth in the traditionally safe labor seat of Fremantle.

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<v Speaker 2>Now it looks like Labor will hang on there, but

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<v Speaker 2>rather than having a you know, a twenty percent or

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<v Speaker 2>sixteen percent margin. It's down to one or under one percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Then we go to New South Wales. We see that

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<v Speaker 2>three of the Teal independents hung on and we see

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<v Speaker 2>that in the seat of Bradfield it looks like the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberals might just scrape over the line. Interestingly, in that seat,

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<v Speaker 2>the former incumbent, a white, middle aged man. He quit

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<v Speaker 2>the seat and the Liberals endorsed a woman and she

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<v Speaker 2>ran the sort of campaign in Bradfield that the Teals run.

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<v Speaker 2>So neither of the major parties can rest on their laurels.

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<v Speaker 2>They all now have to treat every seat as one

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<v Speaker 2>that they may well lose if they don't perform.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Independence and the Teals are here to stay.

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<v Speaker 1>What role will they play in this parliament though, given

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<v Speaker 1>Labour's massive majority.

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<v Speaker 2>Well in the House of Representatives, not a key role.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean Labor will be able to get everything at

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<v Speaker 2>once through the House of Representatives. However, what we did

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<v Speaker 2>see in the first term, of course Labor had a majority,

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<v Speaker 2>but it was only a single seat majority. After they

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<v Speaker 2>appointed the Speaker, Albanzi went out of his way to

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<v Speaker 2>interact with the Teals, even engineered often that the teals

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<v Speaker 2>would be allowed to or encourage to amend government legislation.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think what we're going to see is more

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<v Speaker 2>of that from the Albanzi government in the lower house,

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<v Speaker 2>bit of insurance in that. But also I think Albanezi

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<v Speaker 2>is very keen to show that he runs an inclusive

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<v Speaker 2>government and this will be key of course to him

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<v Speaker 2>not getting too big for his boots, as we were

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<v Speaker 2>talking about a bit earlier.

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<v Speaker 1>And finally, Paul Labour now commands a huge majority, but

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<v Speaker 1>history shows us how quickly big majorities can sour. Is

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<v Speaker 1>there a danger that could happen?

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, there is a danger for it. You might remember

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<v Speaker 2>that Tony Abbott in twenty thirteen, he had ninety seats

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<v Speaker 2>in the House of Representatives, had a massive landslide, but

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<v Speaker 2>his own party room got rid of him within a

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<v Speaker 2>year after he and Joe Hockey's treasurer brought in a

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<v Speaker 2>budget that broke every promise they made and was brutal austerity.

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<v Speaker 7>Do you need to apologize to the public and say, yeah,

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<v Speaker 7>I'll let you down, I did lie to you, I

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<v Speaker 7>did break a lot of promises, but hey, I'm going

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<v Speaker 7>to rebuild from him. Well, Koshi, obviously we are determined

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<v Speaker 7>to improve on these things. But no one said the

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<v Speaker 7>task of budget repair was going to be easy.

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<v Speaker 2>There's even history going back to Paul Keating who won

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<v Speaker 2>the sweetest victory of all. Keating had close to a

0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.959
<v Speaker 2>one hundred ninety a seat majority then, but he was

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<v Speaker 2>wiped out by John Howard three years later. There is

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<v Speaker 2>one difference in my view here, however, the elections that

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<v Speaker 2>saw Labor defeated by Howard and then Tony Abbott were

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<v Speaker 2>at the end of a very tired old Labor government

0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:41.280
<v Speaker 2>that had pulled itself apart over egos, not over policy,

0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 2>not over direction, not over identity. So once Labour sorted

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:49.040
<v Speaker 2>out the egos this time, we really do have the

0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:53.640
<v Speaker 2>Liberal Party looking like it's in its death throws unless

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<v Speaker 2>it really does come to terms with who it is,

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<v Speaker 2>what it wants to be, and whether it wants to

0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:03.000
<v Speaker 2>look to Sir but Menzies order, Peter Kredlin and Sky after.

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<v Speaker 1>Dark, Paul, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you, Daniel Bye.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, MPs have arrived in Canberra ahead

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<v Speaker 1>of Labour's first caucus meeting in Parliament House later today,

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<v Speaker 1>where the Prime Minister is expected to finalize his next ministry, Albaneze.

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<v Speaker 1>He says he expects the new ministry to be sworn

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<v Speaker 1>in at Government House on Tuesday next week. And Peter

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<v Speaker 1>Dutton has made his first public appearance since losing his

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<v Speaker 1>seat in Parliament, returning the Canberra to briefly thank his supporters.

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<v Speaker 1>When asked to comment on he should replace him, the

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<v Speaker 1>former Opposition leader said he would maintain a dignified silence.

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.800
<v Speaker 1>Seven Am is a daily show from Schwartz Media in

0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:59.800
<v Speaker 1>a Saturday paper. It's made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson,

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Chris Dangate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McPhee, Travis Evans,

0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:10.800
<v Speaker 1>Zoltenfetcho and me Daniel James. Our theme music is by

0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:14.400
<v Speaker 1>Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio. Seven Am

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:16.640
<v Speaker 1>will be back on Monday. Have a great weekend.