1 00:00:03,870 --> 00:00:06,180 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,390 --> 00:00:10,110 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Equity markets have been on a tear lately. Notwithstanding 3 00:00:10,110 --> 00:00:12,360 Sean Aylmer: a fair bit of fluctuation, the broader story is one 4 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:16,169 Sean Aylmer: of markets trading at or close to record levels. Locally, 5 00:00:16,170 --> 00:00:19,080 Sean Aylmer: the S& P/ASX 200 hit a new high last week. 6 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,410 Sean Aylmer: European and US markets in particularly have done pretty well 7 00:00:22,470 --> 00:00:25,680 Sean Aylmer: also. How far can they go? Remember, this is general 8 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,679 Sean Aylmer: information only and you should seek professional advice before making 9 00:00:28,679 --> 00:00:32,879 Sean Aylmer: investment decisions. Dr. Shane Oliver is AMP's chief economist and 10 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,269 Sean Aylmer: head of investment strategy. Shane, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 11 00:00:36,690 --> 00:00:38,010 Shane Oliver: Thank you, Sean. Great to be here. 12 00:00:38,580 --> 00:00:41,130 Sean Aylmer: So let's start with the macro outlook before we get 13 00:00:41,130 --> 00:00:44,310 Sean Aylmer: to markets. Can we avoid a global recession? 14 00:00:44,820 --> 00:00:46,860 Shane Oliver: Look, I think we can, but it will be a 15 00:00:46,860 --> 00:00:50,458 Shane Oliver: close call. It's hard to believe that you can raise 16 00:00:50,460 --> 00:00:52,528 Shane Oliver: interest rates as much as we have over the last 17 00:00:52,529 --> 00:00:56,100 Shane Oliver: two years globally and in Australia and not have a 18 00:00:56,100 --> 00:00:59,910 Shane Oliver: major economic impact from that. But so far so good. 19 00:00:59,940 --> 00:01:02,460 Shane Oliver: We have seen inflation come down and we have seen 20 00:01:02,460 --> 00:01:06,780 Shane Oliver: economic conditions in key parts of the world remain relatively 21 00:01:06,780 --> 00:01:10,410 Shane Oliver: resilient, which suggests that maybe we'll be able to get 22 00:01:10,410 --> 00:01:13,679 Shane Oliver: by with a so- called soft landing, and that's partly why 23 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,530 Shane Oliver: share markets have been celebrating lately. But I would have 24 00:01:16,530 --> 00:01:18,870 Shane Oliver: to say it's a close call; lots of things could 25 00:01:18,870 --> 00:01:22,980 Shane Oliver: still go wrong here. And some would say that the signal 26 00:01:22,980 --> 00:01:27,658 Shane Oliver: from inverted yield curves, the decline in leading economic indicators 27 00:01:27,660 --> 00:01:30,089 Shane Oliver: and so on is still warning that that recession risk 28 00:01:30,090 --> 00:01:30,928 Shane Oliver: is still quite high. 29 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,110 Sean Aylmer: And that means lower rates potentially might have ... I mean, 30 00:01:34,230 --> 00:01:37,590 Sean Aylmer: you've been one who has suggested that we perhaps need 31 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,670 Sean Aylmer: lower rates sooner than others have thought, and that is 32 00:01:41,670 --> 00:01:43,559 Sean Aylmer: on the back of this fear about things going too 33 00:01:43,559 --> 00:01:44,429 Sean Aylmer: far. Is that right? 34 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:48,450 Shane Oliver: That's right. Our concern right along has been that central 35 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:51,750 Shane Oliver: banks need to be cautious in raising rates, particularly in 36 00:01:51,750 --> 00:01:55,770 Shane Oliver: countries like Australia where household debt levels are so high, and 37 00:01:55,770 --> 00:02:00,029 Shane Oliver: of course, so far so good; economies have not collapsed. 38 00:02:00,300 --> 00:02:04,769 Shane Oliver: They've slowed down generally, although the UK I think has 39 00:02:04,770 --> 00:02:08,520 Shane Oliver: gone into recession and Japan and Europe are close to 40 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,410 Shane Oliver: it, but other parts of the world have sort of 41 00:02:10,410 --> 00:02:12,930 Shane Oliver: hung in there, including Australia. There's been a bunch of 42 00:02:12,930 --> 00:02:15,719 Shane Oliver: things helping out there, but there's always a risk here that 43 00:02:15,719 --> 00:02:19,139 Shane Oliver: we're living on borrowed time. Interest payments on mortgages in 44 00:02:19,139 --> 00:02:22,950 Shane Oliver: Australia have gone through the roof and obviously the higher 45 00:02:22,980 --> 00:02:25,200 Shane Oliver: interest rates are left at these sorts of levels, the 46 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,780 Shane Oliver: longer they're left at these sorts are levels, the greater the 47 00:02:27,780 --> 00:02:29,910 Shane Oliver: risk that some of the supports from the last year, 48 00:02:29,910 --> 00:02:32,910 Shane Oliver: such as the running down of savings buffers built up 49 00:02:32,910 --> 00:02:35,610 Shane Oliver: through the pandemic, the desire to get out there and 50 00:02:35,610 --> 00:02:38,490 Shane Oliver: spend, and also the fixed rate protection that many home 51 00:02:38,490 --> 00:02:40,919 Shane Oliver: borrowers had, many of those supports will start to run 52 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,380 Shane Oliver: off. So that's why I think central banks have to 53 00:02:43,380 --> 00:02:46,800 Shane Oliver: be cautious here and we think ultimately the Reserve Bank 54 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:48,660 Shane Oliver: should be cutting sooner rather than later. 55 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,349 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so let's shift this to markets and particularly equities. You 56 00:02:52,349 --> 00:02:55,589 Sean Aylmer: talked about Japan being in recession, yet its share market 57 00:02:55,650 --> 00:02:57,779 Sean Aylmer: is at a record level and hasn't been at these 58 00:02:57,780 --> 00:03:01,770 Sean Aylmer: levels for 35 years or so. Australia, we had a 59 00:03:01,770 --> 00:03:03,630 Sean Aylmer: great slowdown in growth at the end of last year, 0. 60 00:03:03,630 --> 00:03:06,570 Sean Aylmer: 2% for that December quarter, yet we are at a 61 00:03:06,570 --> 00:03:09,630 Sean Aylmer: new high. Wall Street's at a new high. Have the 62 00:03:09,630 --> 00:03:10,829 Sean Aylmer: markets gone too far? 63 00:03:11,580 --> 00:03:14,460 Shane Oliver: Well, that's obviously a big question at present. I think 64 00:03:14,460 --> 00:03:17,190 Shane Oliver: the fact that markets go to record levels doesn't necessarily 65 00:03:17,190 --> 00:03:20,430 Shane Oliver: prove anything. The history over time has been that share 66 00:03:20,430 --> 00:03:24,960 Shane Oliver: markets trend higher with economic conditions. So economic activity around 67 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,570 Shane Oliver: the world is at a record high, so it's logical that 68 00:03:27,570 --> 00:03:31,439 Shane Oliver: share markets are too. But obviously when you look at 69 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,770 Shane Oliver: valuations, they're not as attractive as they once were. In 70 00:03:34,770 --> 00:03:37,380 Shane Oliver: the US, a lot of the strength has been concentrated 71 00:03:37,380 --> 00:03:42,060 Shane Oliver: in tech stocks, AI- related in particular, very high price 72 00:03:42,060 --> 00:03:44,339 Shane Oliver: to earnings multiples. I don't think anywhere near as extreme 73 00:03:44,340 --> 00:03:47,759 Shane Oliver: as it was back in the year 2000, but nevertheless, 74 00:03:47,759 --> 00:03:50,639 Shane Oliver: that risk is there. And likewise, we've got higher bond 75 00:03:50,639 --> 00:03:52,529 Shane Oliver: yields than we used to have. So when you look 76 00:03:52,529 --> 00:03:55,830 Shane Oliver: at the gap between say the earnings yield that shares 77 00:03:55,830 --> 00:03:58,650 Shane Oliver: offer, whether it's in Australia or the US, and bond 78 00:03:58,650 --> 00:04:02,099 Shane Oliver: yields, which some would see as a proxy for the risk premium 79 00:04:02,099 --> 00:04:05,850 Shane Oliver: that shares offer over bonds, that risk premium has collapsed 80 00:04:06,090 --> 00:04:08,280 Shane Oliver: relative to where it was for much of the post- 81 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:12,000 Shane Oliver: GFC period. And so with shares offering a lesser risk 82 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,720 Shane Oliver: premium, there is a risk that something could go wrong. 83 00:04:16,020 --> 00:04:18,058 Shane Oliver: So you've got a situation now where shares are a 84 00:04:18,060 --> 00:04:20,639 Shane Oliver: little bit overvalued, I wouldn't say dramatically, but a little 85 00:04:20,639 --> 00:04:25,589 Shane Oliver: bit overvalued. They're technically overboard having run so far, so fast, and 86 00:04:25,589 --> 00:04:27,539 Shane Oliver: we're now moving into a situation where there's a lot 87 00:04:27,540 --> 00:04:31,169 Shane Oliver: of euphoria around. I wouldn't quite say it's bubble- like 88 00:04:31,170 --> 00:04:34,560 Shane Oliver: conditions, but investors are feeling a lot more confident. When 89 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,510 Shane Oliver: you move into a situation like that, you'd have to 90 00:04:36,510 --> 00:04:41,400 Shane Oliver: say there is a risk of corrections at least or more volatility out 91 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,159 Shane Oliver: there, but trying to time any of that is always 92 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,678 Shane Oliver: going to be very difficult. Some people say it's a 93 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:51,000 Shane Oliver: bit like 1995, interest rates will soon come down ushering 94 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,488 Shane Oliver: in a five- year period of strength. Others say, well 95 00:04:53,490 --> 00:04:56,339 Shane Oliver: no it's not, it's closer to 1999, we're getting close 96 00:04:56,339 --> 00:04:58,650 Shane Oliver: to the top. So that's why investors need to play 97 00:04:58,650 --> 00:05:00,659 Shane Oliver: it a little bit more cautiously given that we have 98 00:05:00,660 --> 00:05:04,080 Shane Oliver: seen these strong gains. The bottom line though is that we 99 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,230 Shane Oliver: are likely to see lower interest rates this year and 100 00:05:07,260 --> 00:05:09,930 Shane Oliver: that I think will provide an underpinning for markets, but 101 00:05:09,930 --> 00:05:11,880 Shane Oliver: we could see a lot of volatility along the way. 102 00:05:13,020 --> 00:05:14,549 Sean Aylmer: There's a lot in what you just said there, Shane, 103 00:05:14,550 --> 00:05:16,049 Sean Aylmer: and I want to kind of bring it to asset 104 00:05:16,050 --> 00:05:19,080 Sean Aylmer: allocation at this point then because that whole idea that 105 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,479 Sean Aylmer: the risk- free rate or near risk- free rate that 106 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:23,729 Sean Aylmer: a bond gives you is so much higher than what 107 00:05:23,730 --> 00:05:27,360 Sean Aylmer: it was, therefore you need an extra increment, a decent 108 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,120 Sean Aylmer: extra increment to invest in something that's more risky such 109 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,750 Sean Aylmer: as equities. In terms of asset allocation, is it more 110 00:05:33,779 --> 00:05:36,509 Sean Aylmer: in March 2024, is it more about going back to 111 00:05:36,509 --> 00:05:39,869 Sean Aylmer: a traditional type of portfolio? And when I say traditional, 112 00:05:39,870 --> 00:05:41,878 Sean Aylmer: I'm probably talking about 20 years ago rather than five 113 00:05:41,879 --> 00:05:44,010 Sean Aylmer: years ago. Is that kind of where we're up to 114 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:45,900 Sean Aylmer: in terms of asset allocation? 115 00:05:46,650 --> 00:05:50,400 Shane Oliver: Well, sort of. I think it's a time to have 116 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:53,729 Shane Oliver: lots of diversification in there. Bonds do provide you with 117 00:05:53,730 --> 00:05:58,409 Shane Oliver: that diversification. They didn't, mind you, in 2022 because 2022 118 00:05:58,410 --> 00:06:01,259 Shane Oliver: was an inflationary shock. But if you go back to the time of 119 00:06:01,860 --> 00:06:04,289 Shane Oliver: the pandemic, that slump that we saw in shares in 120 00:06:04,290 --> 00:06:07,169 Shane Oliver: 2020, that's where your five- year story comes into it. 121 00:06:07,410 --> 00:06:11,849 Shane Oliver: That slump saw bonds rally, so shares fell 35% or so. 122 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,519 Shane Oliver: You've got some protection by having bonds in there. So 123 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,709 Shane Oliver: I think we've returned to something like that with the 124 00:06:16,709 --> 00:06:19,830 Shane Oliver: rise in the bond yields up to around 4, 4. 125 00:06:19,830 --> 00:06:23,370 Shane Oliver: 5%. That means that bonds offer you a pretty good 126 00:06:23,730 --> 00:06:26,759 Shane Oliver: starting point. Maybe not as strong as it was when 127 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,609 Shane Oliver: I started my career 40 years ago, but it's still 128 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:32,520 Shane Oliver: much better than it was a few years ago. And 129 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,250 Shane Oliver: therefore if we do perchance go into recession, and the 130 00:06:35,250 --> 00:06:38,250 Shane Oliver: risk is something you can't ignore, then shares could take 131 00:06:38,250 --> 00:06:40,529 Shane Oliver: a tumble but at least bonds would rally as well, 132 00:06:40,529 --> 00:06:43,770 Shane Oliver: providing some offset. So there is a case for diversification 133 00:06:43,770 --> 00:06:45,988 Shane Oliver: there. I don't think it's a time to sort of 134 00:06:45,990 --> 00:06:50,159 Shane Oliver: say, well, okay, Bitcoin's running or gold, we'll shove it all 135 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:54,150 Shane Oliver: into that because we also know, in recent times anyway, 136 00:06:54,150 --> 00:06:57,450 Shane Oliver: when share markets fell, so too did Bitcoin. So I 137 00:06:57,450 --> 00:07:00,540 Shane Oliver: think it's probably looking at more traditional allocation and looking 138 00:07:00,540 --> 00:07:04,320 Shane Oliver: for bonds as a good diversifier as opposed to other alternatives. 139 00:07:04,889 --> 00:07:06,690 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Shane. We'll be back in a minute. 140 00:07:12,690 --> 00:07:15,480 Sean Aylmer: I am speaking to Dr. Shane, Oliver, chief economist and 141 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:20,130 Sean Aylmer: head of investment strategy at AMP. You just mentioned gold 142 00:07:20,130 --> 00:07:21,929 Sean Aylmer: and Bitcoin, and this is a question which I have not been 143 00:07:21,929 --> 00:07:24,420 Sean Aylmer: able to answer. Why is gold at an all- time 144 00:07:24,420 --> 00:07:27,809 Sean Aylmer: record when Bitcoin is not an all- time record, but it's certainly high. 145 00:07:28,020 --> 00:07:31,650 Sean Aylmer: They kind of, to me, are almost opposites, but am 146 00:07:31,650 --> 00:07:32,820 Sean Aylmer: I totally wrong there, Shane? 147 00:07:32,850 --> 00:07:36,720 Shane Oliver: Bitcoin and gold create a lot of confusion. Bitcoin I 148 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:38,550 Shane Oliver: think is the thing that's thrown the spanner in the 149 00:07:38,550 --> 00:07:41,910 Shane Oliver: works and disrupted everything. When people talk about Bitcoin, many 150 00:07:41,910 --> 00:07:43,799 Shane Oliver: of them go into two or three camps. There's the 151 00:07:43,799 --> 00:07:47,369 Shane Oliver: evangelists who almost see it as a religious experience and 152 00:07:47,369 --> 00:07:49,650 Shane Oliver: are full of the jargon, and then there's the agnostics 153 00:07:49,650 --> 00:07:52,620 Shane Oliver: who don't really know might be something in it but might not, but I'm a bit 154 00:07:52,620 --> 00:07:55,290 Shane Oliver: skeptical. And then of course there's the atheists who say 155 00:07:55,290 --> 00:08:00,269 Shane Oliver: it's complete bollocks, stay away. It's just the latest fad 156 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,420 Shane Oliver: along there with South Sea Bubble, tulips, and so on. 157 00:08:04,380 --> 00:08:07,350 Shane Oliver: So you got to be a little bit cautious. But what does 158 00:08:07,350 --> 00:08:10,950 Shane Oliver: seem to be happening here with Bitcoin is I find 159 00:08:10,950 --> 00:08:14,070 Shane Oliver: it very hard to value; it doesn't generate rental earnings 160 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,580 Shane Oliver: or coupon payments that bonds do. So very, very hard 161 00:08:17,580 --> 00:08:20,009 Shane Oliver: to value, very hard to find its use case, but 162 00:08:20,009 --> 00:08:22,320 Shane Oliver: what it does seem to be doing is acting a 163 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,590 Shane Oliver: bit like gold. The crowd in the past who said, " 164 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,160 Shane Oliver: Well, I'd rather have gold because it can't be confiscated, 165 00:08:29,460 --> 00:08:32,458 Shane Oliver: it can't be debased by central banks printing more money. 166 00:08:32,849 --> 00:08:34,679 Shane Oliver: If I have the gold, I don't have to rely on 167 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:36,809 Shane Oliver: the banking system which might go bust and so on, 168 00:08:37,139 --> 00:08:40,199 Shane Oliver: and I don't trust government generally," those people are now thinking, " 169 00:08:40,199 --> 00:08:43,230 Shane Oliver: Well maybe let's go digital and Bitcoin is the way to 170 00:08:43,350 --> 00:08:46,078 Shane Oliver: go." So that's excited a whole group of people and 171 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,600 Shane Oliver: I think it's taking money away from gold. If we 172 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,630 Shane Oliver: didn't have Bitcoin out there, the gold price would be 173 00:08:51,630 --> 00:08:53,070 Shane Oliver: a hell of a lot higher than it is now, 174 00:08:53,070 --> 00:08:55,590 Shane Oliver: even though it is also at a record level. But 175 00:08:55,590 --> 00:08:59,249 Shane Oliver: at its core, both of these assets are benefiting from 176 00:08:59,250 --> 00:09:02,728 Shane Oliver: anticipation of lower interest rates ahead. They are the most 177 00:09:02,730 --> 00:09:07,140 Shane Oliver: speculative, interest- sensitive assets out there. When you talk about lowering 178 00:09:07,140 --> 00:09:11,880 Shane Oliver: interest rates, that lowers the opportunity cost of buying gold 179 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:16,348 Shane Oliver: or Bitcoin and supercharges them higher. Bitcoin also benefits from 180 00:09:16,350 --> 00:09:19,588 Shane Oliver: the advent of ETFs that can directly buy Bitcoin and 181 00:09:19,590 --> 00:09:21,870 Shane Oliver: also the so- called halving, which I think is coming 182 00:09:21,870 --> 00:09:25,920 Shane Oliver: up in the next month or so, which is, I won't go into all the jargon 183 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,070 Shane Oliver: around that, but it doesn't surprise me particularly that these 184 00:09:29,070 --> 00:09:31,738 Shane Oliver: two assets are taken off again and I think it's 185 00:09:31,740 --> 00:09:34,139 Shane Oliver: just part and parcel of the way they operate. They're 186 00:09:34,139 --> 00:09:37,050 Shane Oliver: incredibly volatile, but you do have to go in with 187 00:09:37,050 --> 00:09:39,690 Shane Oliver: your eyes wide open. And I have a simple rule: 188 00:09:39,690 --> 00:09:41,640 Shane Oliver: if I don't understand something, I don't invest in it. 189 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,240 Shane Oliver: And I must say I'm still in the skeptical camp 190 00:09:45,300 --> 00:09:45,809 Shane Oliver: regarding Bitcoin. 191 00:09:45,809 --> 00:09:50,669 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So the moral to this story is diversification, is 192 00:09:50,670 --> 00:09:51,060 Sean Aylmer: that right? 193 00:09:51,690 --> 00:09:54,510 Shane Oliver: Well, I think the moral to story is certainly diversification. 194 00:09:54,510 --> 00:09:58,860 Shane Oliver: Yeah, sure. If you're skeptical of governments and worried that 195 00:09:58,860 --> 00:10:02,369 Shane Oliver: there's going to be some debasement of paper currencies, then 196 00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:04,078 Shane Oliver: yeah, you might want to have a bit of Bitcoin. 197 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:08,219 Shane Oliver: It also is very trending, momentum; it's on the way 198 00:10:08,219 --> 00:10:10,078 Shane Oliver: up again, so you might make some money in it. 199 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,689 Shane Oliver: But trying to trade that I think from a fundamental 200 00:10:12,690 --> 00:10:14,700 Shane Oliver: point of view is next to impossible. So I think 201 00:10:14,700 --> 00:10:17,280 Shane Oliver: for the average investor out there, yeah, you might want 202 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:18,540 Shane Oliver: to put a bit of money in it, but I'm 203 00:10:18,540 --> 00:10:21,719 Shane Oliver: not recommending that certainly. But I think the key here 204 00:10:21,719 --> 00:10:24,599 Shane Oliver: is always focus on assets that provide some sort of 205 00:10:24,599 --> 00:10:27,809 Shane Oliver: income stream, which you can then use to value those 206 00:10:27,809 --> 00:10:31,169 Shane Oliver: assets. So given the uncertainties around, yes, you want to 207 00:10:31,170 --> 00:10:33,690 Shane Oliver: have a bit of equities in there because they could 208 00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:35,699 Shane Oliver: keep going up from here and longer term I think 209 00:10:35,700 --> 00:10:38,099 Shane Oliver: they will do well, but you might also want to have some 210 00:10:38,099 --> 00:10:40,830 Shane Oliver: government bonds in there because if things do turn sour, 211 00:10:40,889 --> 00:10:42,479 Shane Oliver: then they will provide you with some protection. 212 00:10:43,830 --> 00:10:46,529 Sean Aylmer: Shane, we haven't spoken for a few months now. You 213 00:10:46,529 --> 00:10:48,179 Sean Aylmer: were the person that got me on to Taylor Swift 214 00:10:48,179 --> 00:10:51,088 Sean Aylmer: about three years ago. Did you go and see her 215 00:10:51,090 --> 00:10:51,840 Sean Aylmer: when she was out here? 216 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,680 Shane Oliver: Well, the good news is that I did. My colleague 217 00:10:55,770 --> 00:10:58,799 Shane Oliver: Diana Messina and I were both trying back in July 218 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:00,809 Shane Oliver: when it was, when the tickets were first released and both 219 00:11:00,809 --> 00:11:04,559 Shane Oliver: failed. Me abysmally because I was fortunately let in but 220 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,230 Shane Oliver: stuck at my Ticketek password and got turfed out after 221 00:11:07,230 --> 00:11:09,480 Shane Oliver: 10 minutes. So I'd sort of given up, and then 222 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:12,870 Shane Oliver: a colleague of ours managed to get us some of 223 00:11:12,870 --> 00:11:15,210 Shane Oliver: the el cheapo seats for $ 66- 224 00:11:15,210 --> 00:11:15,211 Sean Aylmer: Fantastic! 225 00:11:15,211 --> 00:11:17,820 Shane Oliver: ... when there was a release about four weeks ago. 226 00:11:17,820 --> 00:11:19,830 Shane Oliver: So both of us managed to get there. I took 227 00:11:19,830 --> 00:11:24,389 Shane Oliver: my daughter and she took her brother- in- law. Babysitting 228 00:11:24,389 --> 00:11:27,088 Shane Oliver: issues obviously impacting there, but a fantastic event. 229 00:11:27,719 --> 00:11:27,840 Sean Aylmer: Was she good? 230 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:33,419 Shane Oliver: Look, I thought it was fantastic, and I'm someone who appreciates pop, and 231 00:11:33,420 --> 00:11:37,830 Shane Oliver: she creates classic pop music with lots of hits over 232 00:11:37,830 --> 00:11:40,889 Shane Oliver: what is now a 17- year career. So it'd be 233 00:11:40,889 --> 00:11:44,490 Shane Oliver: a bit like going to see Paul McCartney in 1980 or 234 00:11:44,490 --> 00:11:46,890 Shane Oliver: something like that; he'd have a lot of material to 235 00:11:46,890 --> 00:11:50,760 Shane Oliver: draw on just as Taylor now does. So I thought 236 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,900 Shane Oliver: it was well worth the money. Out of interest, $ 66 237 00:11:54,929 --> 00:11:59,309 Shane Oliver: is equivalent to about $3.70 in 1964, which is what people would've 238 00:11:59,309 --> 00:12:01,110 Shane Oliver: paid to see the Beatles. 239 00:12:03,780 --> 00:12:05,610 Sean Aylmer: Only you has done that calculation in doing that, Shane. 240 00:12:05,610 --> 00:12:08,130 Shane Oliver: So I've paid Beatles prices to see Taylor Swift in 241 00:12:08,130 --> 00:12:10,410 Shane Oliver: a massive stadium, but I got three hours out of 242 00:12:10,410 --> 00:12:13,199 Shane Oliver: it and I got to see her on a giant 243 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,839 Shane Oliver: screen, but a lot of the time we didn't get 244 00:12:15,839 --> 00:12:18,269 Shane Oliver: to see the stage 'cause we were off to the side. They were the el 245 00:12:18,300 --> 00:12:19,230 Shane Oliver: cheapo seats. 246 00:12:20,100 --> 00:12:22,828 Sean Aylmer: Fantastic. Well, you have put me onto Taylor Swift and my 247 00:12:22,830 --> 00:12:24,689 Sean Aylmer: kids were going to put me onto it eventually anyway, 248 00:12:24,690 --> 00:12:26,578 Sean Aylmer: but you were the first one there. Shane, thank you 249 00:12:26,580 --> 00:12:28,050 Sean Aylmer: very much for talking to Fear and Greed. 250 00:12:28,410 --> 00:12:29,640 Shane Oliver: My pleasure. Thanks for having me. 251 00:12:30,210 --> 00:12:32,610 Sean Aylmer: That was Dr. Shane Oliver, chief economist and head of 252 00:12:32,610 --> 00:12:35,969 Sean Aylmer: investment strategy at AMP. This is the Fear and Greed Business 253 00:12:35,969 --> 00:12:38,730 Sean Aylmer: Interview. Remember, this is general information only and you should 254 00:12:38,730 --> 00:12:41,699 Sean Aylmer: always seek professional advice before making investment decisions. Join us 255 00:12:41,700 --> 00:12:43,740 Sean Aylmer: every morning for the full episode of Fear and Greed, 256 00:12:44,010 --> 00:12:47,578 Sean Aylmer: Australia's best business podcast. I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.