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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Falling household spending puts pressure

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Speaker 1: on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates. Relations between

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Speaker 1: Canberra and Moscow hit a decade low on reports an

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Speaker 1: Australian soldier was executed in Russia and a new global

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Speaker 1: report says too many people are being diagnosed with obesity

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Speaker 1: and it's not for health reasons. Plus, Telstra pushes into

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Speaker 1: AI a bidding war for one of Australia's oldest home builders,

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Speaker 1: and the US regulator sues Elon Musk over his purchase

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Speaker 1: of Twitter. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news

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Speaker 1: for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: the sixteenth of January twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Household spending fell nearly two

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Speaker 1: percent in December after a surge the previous month thanks

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Speaker 1: to Black Friday sales. It's all adding to calls for

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Speaker 1: a rate cut as early as next month.

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Speaker 2: Crossed Michael fingers crossed for all we mortgage holders. The

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Speaker 2: CommBank Household Spending Insights Index shares a drop in spending

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Speaker 2: on household goods, things like clothing, department store sales put down.

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Speaker 2: Consumers pretty much brought forward their spending to take advantage

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Speaker 2: of sales activity. In November, there were big declines in hospitality,

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Speaker 2: food and beverage, recreation, that type of thing. What's really

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Speaker 2: fascinating about the Commbank's Household Spending Insights Index is that

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Speaker 2: it takes information from its seven million customers that's about

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Speaker 2: thirty percent of all consumer transactions, throws it into the

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Speaker 2: mix master, the fear and Greed mix master, and comes

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Speaker 2: out with a view on what's happening around spending. Clearly,

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Speaker 2: consumer spending has slowed. Consumer spending is the biggest part

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Speaker 2: of the economy. If consumers are spending, we're much more

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Speaker 2: likely to get economic growth. Very important. But it looks

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Speaker 2: like that growth is slowing.

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Speaker 1: Can I ask you a question on that, Sean, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: to what extent is it a worry if it is

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Speaker 1: just shifting forward? So, say a lot of the spending

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Speaker 1: on goods, retail spending, if that's being brought forward to

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Speaker 1: be part of the Black Friday sales, how big a

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Speaker 1: concern is that is the bigger concern? Perhaps the decline

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Speaker 1: in say hospitality and others that you wouldn't think is

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Speaker 1: brought forward to another month and should be pretty strong

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Speaker 1: in the lead up to Christmas.

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Speaker 2: It's all seasonally adjusted, so it's kind of December on December.

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Speaker 2: There's that. But your point is valid is we're worried

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Speaker 2: about the trend here. We're not worried about one month's numbers.

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Speaker 2: And certainly if all this spending has gone on in

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Speaker 2: Black Friday and it hasn't gone on in December and

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Speaker 2: part of the recreation and all that would because people

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Speaker 2: spent their money on Black Friday sales, they didn't have

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Speaker 2: it for Christmas, that type of thing. So what you

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Speaker 2: really want to look at at is a run of data,

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Speaker 2: and that shows that retail spending is weak, undoubtedly, and

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Speaker 2: that's kind of what we keep an eye on the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank. It will be a meeting on February seventeen

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Speaker 2: eighteen to talk about interest rates. The key piece of

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Speaker 2: data ahead of that is inflation figures for the December

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Speaker 2: quarter that comes out on twenty nine January. If that

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Speaker 2: shows underlying inflation getting close to the target band, getting

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Speaker 2: close to that two to three percent, then there's a

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Speaker 2: real chance they will cut interest rates remember that monthly

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Speaker 2: number from November, the underlying rate got down to three

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Speaker 2: point two percent. That triggered all sorts of speculation that

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Speaker 2: that might happen in that the rate cuts might actually

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Speaker 2: happen in February. Another thing to take into account. It'll

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Speaker 2: be early days in the Trump administration. But if in

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Speaker 2: the first month Donald Trump comes in, hikes tariffs, kicks

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Speaker 2: non citizens out, that will be extremely inflationary. If you

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Speaker 2: kick a lot of immigrants out, they are often in

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Speaker 2: low paid jobs. Who's going to do those jobs. It's

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Speaker 2: going to cost more to find people to do it,

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Speaker 2: so you will have wage price inflation. It is very

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Speaker 2: early when the Reserve it's only about a month after

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump takes power that the Reserve meets, but they'll

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Speaker 2: have some idea of what he's talking about. Steven how Mary,

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Speaker 2: the chief economist at Komov Bank, he's calling for a

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Speaker 2: rate cut next month. He reckons the befour this year.

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Speaker 2: Doesn't quite mean he's predicting a rate cut next month,

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Speaker 2: but he reckons that it should happen.

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Speaker 1: So the Reserve Bank really does pay close attention to

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Speaker 1: what's happening elsewhere in the world because we always joke

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Speaker 1: about the fact that that the RBA kind of runs

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Speaker 1: its own race. But I mean it's still paying attention

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Speaker 1: to global factors, like what happens in the US with.

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Speaker 2: Trump, right, Yeah, And I mean particularly if tariff's he

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Speaker 2: throws six percent tariffs on China, what's that mean for

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Speaker 2: the Chinese economy? I mean theoretically he should be throwing

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Speaker 2: big tariffs on Australian goods as well. Yeah, so we'll

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Speaker 2: get some sort of indication that first month.

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Speaker 1: Gosh, it is a huge start to the year, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: It is really quite extraordinary. Wouldn't be expecting kind of

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Speaker 1: here we are halfway through January and we're already talking

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Speaker 1: about such big economic moves.

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Speaker 2: So true.

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Speaker 1: Now Sewan, relations between Canberra and Moscow are at a

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Speaker 1: really at a very low ebb at the moment. After

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Speaker 1: reports that thirty two year old former Melbourn Grammars student

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Speaker 1: Oscar Jenkins, who had been caught by Russia while fighting

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Speaker 1: for Ukraine, has been executed.

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Speaker 2: Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that the government has made

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Speaker 2: urgent inquiries into Jenkins' well being. She's asked Russia and

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Speaker 2: Ukraine for information. She said yesterday that all options are

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Speaker 2: on the table. The Russian ambassador Alexei Pavlovski was called

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Speaker 2: in to meet with the government. Seven News reported that

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Speaker 2: Jenkins had been executed and his body had been found.

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Speaker 2: This is the gentleman who was captured while fighting alongside

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Speaker 2: Ukrainians late last year. Opposition leader Peter Dutton supported the government.

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Speaker 2: He said the envoy should be sent packing if it's

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Speaker 2: proven that mister Jenkins has been executed. Clearly, this is

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Speaker 2: the lowest point between Canberra and Moscow since the downing

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Speaker 2: of their Age seventeen back in twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Sean Macquarie Asset Management, which is part as the name suggests,

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Speaker 1: part of the Macquari Group, will invest eight billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in US owned data centers.

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Speaker 2: Up to eight billion dollars. Actually it's a big deal.

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Speaker 2: Step one, they're going to spend nine hundred million US

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Speaker 2: in Applied Digital's data center campus in North Dakota, Applied

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Speaker 2: Digital being a company. Step two, invest another four billion

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Speaker 2: US in future Applied Digital's data center campuses, whatever they've

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Speaker 2: got coming up. That's five billion US, which is about

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Speaker 2: eight billion Ossie McQuary Asset Management. We've got a fifteen

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Speaker 2: percent stake in Applied Digital's high performance computing business. It's

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Speaker 2: got a bit of a history in data centers. Mcqurey

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Speaker 2: Asset Management it, along with a pension fund, owned about

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Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of air Trunk, which was sold last

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Speaker 2: year for twenty three and a half billion dollars to Blackstone.

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Speaker 2: That was a massive multimillion dollar, multi billion dollar windfall

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Speaker 2: for McQuary Asset Management. It just show I mean, they're

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Speaker 2: putting their money back into data centers. It is the

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Speaker 2: boom sector. When you know Amazon, Google, They're all out

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Speaker 2: there searching for more processing power, more space to house growth,

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Speaker 2: particularly around our platforms, cloud computing operations. Everyone wants data centers.

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Speaker 2: Mcreasset Management doubling down on it.

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Speaker 1: A very relevant interview coming up after the show today, Sean,

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Speaker 1: you're speaking about Oussie Tech stocks with Sean Wyke from

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Speaker 1: Wilson Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so we don't Ossie techoks some really great AUSSI

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Speaker 2: tech stocks out there, wis Tech Global, Promedicus Zero, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: We don't actually talk a lot about them, so we asked.

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Speaker 2: We asked Sean all about what the outlook was for

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Speaker 2: them over the next twelve months or so so we

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Speaker 2: didn't talk about the videos and apples and Microsoft. We

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Speaker 2: actually talked about the local guys. It's a great chat, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it really is.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up after the show, so stick around

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Speaker 1: for that one. In the meantime, Sean, we have got

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Speaker 1: a lot to cover, So we're talking Telstra's push into

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Speaker 1: AI and a big home builder takeover bid and plenty

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Speaker 1: of market moves. Lots still to come. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: Telstra will spend seven hundred million dollars rolling out artificial

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Speaker 1: intelligence across its entire business.

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Speaker 2: Apparently, it's one of the biggest deployments by a corporate

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Speaker 2: in Australian history when it comes to AI. It's a

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Speaker 2: joint venture between Accenture, which is the consulting group, and Telstra.

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Speaker 2: They Accentual will help Telstra roll it out. The goal

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Speaker 2: is to transform how the telco interacts with customers and

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Speaker 2: operates its network. It could result in staff losses. The

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Speaker 2: report actually was in the Financial Review yesterday and the

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Speaker 2: finn Review said that Telstra was set to make an announcement.

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Speaker 2: Now there was no official announcement from tel Street yesterday,

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Speaker 2: but it does seem to be happening now.

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Speaker 1: Among the best performers on the share market yesterday sean

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Speaker 1: was home builder AV Jennings, which closed up eight percent

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Speaker 1: after it received a new takeover proposal from a group

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Speaker 1: in Singapore.

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Speaker 2: We've discussed this company and you've laughed at my memories

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Speaker 2: of growing up in country New South Wales and it

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Speaker 2: makes me a very proud old builder. We used to

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Speaker 2: be the ad for AV Jennings.

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Speaker 1: And I come from a different generation where I remember

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Speaker 1: the AV Jennings ads which as Dreams Can Come True

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Speaker 1: and AV Jennings were building for you remember those ones. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're not here to advertise av j We're not here

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Speaker 1: to talk about a takeover bid.

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Speaker 2: So hob Hoba hob Land offered three hundred and ninety

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Speaker 2: one million dollars for the group. That's seventy cents a share.

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Speaker 2: Hobi has already got five point four percent of the company.

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Speaker 2: It comes after American group Appropriate Capital Markets offered sixty

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Speaker 2: seven censor chair that's three hundred and seventy four million

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Speaker 2: dollars back in November. The company's at sixty nine cents

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Speaker 2: per share. That's what it closed out yesterday, it's doubled

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Speaker 2: since the first bid. He's definitely in play.

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Speaker 1: Much else happening on the local share market in the

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Speaker 1: last twenty four hours or so sewn.

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Speaker 2: And all stocks are doing okay, helped by a two

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Speaker 2: week high in iron ore prices back above one hundred

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Speaker 2: US dollars a ton banks, mixed property companies and they're

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Speaker 2: sort of outperforming at the moment because of the expectations

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Speaker 2: that rates in Australia might fall sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 2: Telco stocks not so good thanks to Telstra. Tech stocks

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Speaker 2: not so good. A lot of that was around Weiss

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Speaker 2: tech Global. It lost three point seven percent yesterday, closed

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Speaker 2: at one hundred and fifteen bucks a share. Now that's

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Speaker 2: its lowest since late October. It's not quite clear who's selling.

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Speaker 2: Plenty of speculation, but it is only speculation. It's not

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Speaker 2: fact that Richard White, the founder of wis Tech Global,

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Speaker 2: is selling.

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Speaker 1: Not sure that okay Global markets, what's going on there? Well?

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Speaker 2: The reports that the Trump administration might ramp up tariffs

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Speaker 2: over time rather than impose them in one hit on

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Speaker 2: Day one were welcomed. They took the steam out of

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Speaker 2: the US dollar. That helped the Aussie dollar to push

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Speaker 2: back around sixty two US cents. Bitcoin has risen, as

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Speaker 2: well as training above ninety six thousand US size A

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Speaker 2: unit on Wall Street reports that Meta will cut about

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Speaker 2: five percent of staff have emerged, that's about thirty six

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Speaker 2: hundred people. And Eli Lilly's share price dropped now it

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Speaker 2: lowered revenue guidance for obesity and diabetes drugs. We'll talk

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Speaker 2: about those obesity drugs a bit later in the show,

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Speaker 2: but the December quarter for demand for those particular drugs

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Speaker 2: wasn't as high as expected.

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Speaker 1: A little bit of state based news Sean, there was

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Speaker 1: chaos across the Sydney train system yesterday after maintenance workers

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Speaker 1: went on strike.

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Speaker 2: So it's all about pay. It involves the Electrical Trades

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Speaker 2: Union in the rail, tram and Bus union. Eight in

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Speaker 2: ten services were delayed or canceled in the ampk hour yesterday.

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Speaker 2: About one thousand trains in Sydney apparently were delayed or

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Speaker 2: canceled in the twenty four hours. Basically a few were trains,

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Speaker 2: large crowds. There were replacement buses, but you need twenty

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Speaker 2: replacement buses for one train, and when you're in Pekur

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Speaker 2: that doesn't fly.

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Speaker 1: God, that puts a lot of vehicles onto the roads,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it?

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Speaker 2: It does? It does? The New South Wales government said

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Speaker 2: it's exploring legal options to end action. More action is

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Speaker 2: planned for today and potentially tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: And an audit into the Queensland Health system says it

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Speaker 1: is in urgent need of reform after years of breakdowns

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Speaker 1: across infrastructure, cybersecurity and patient care.

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Speaker 2: The Queensland Audit Office said the systems facing mounting costs,

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Speaker 2: worsening weight times, underwhelming performance on preventable hospital admissions, among

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Speaker 2: other things. The maintenance backlog cost has blown out to

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Speaker 2: two billion dollars. That's up forty percent in just twelve months. Wow.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now, the US Securities and Exchange

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Speaker 1: Commission has sued Elon Musk over allegations that he misled

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Speaker 1: shareholders about his Twitter stock purchases, escalating the agencies.

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Speaker 2: Phil.

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Speaker 1: It's been a long simmering feud, hasn't it with the billionaire.

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Speaker 1: That's just this has been bubbling along for a while.

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Speaker 1: Now it feels like it's coming ahead.

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Speaker 2: I think you're right. I think it's more bubbling than simmering.

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Speaker 2: Sim Ring's like light bubble. So I think this is

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Speaker 2: like mid bubbles. I'd say that's.

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Speaker 1: A mid bubble. Feels like I might be getting too

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Speaker 1: technical with the analogy, Sean.

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Speaker 2: The lawsuit claims that mister Musk delayed disclosure of his

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Speaker 2: ownership That's of Twitter, allowing him to save more than

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty million dollars on buying Twitter stock.

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Speaker 2: According to report in The Wall Street Journal, the late

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Speaker 2: disclosure heard investors who sold at artificially low prices because

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Speaker 2: they didn't know about mister Musk's plans. The lawsuit comes

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Speaker 2: after a long investigation that mister Musk sometimes delayed by

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Speaker 2: basically not appearing for testimony. He is very closely aligned

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Speaker 2: with President elect Donald Trump. The speculation is that the

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Speaker 2: sec will get a new commissioner shortly when Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: takes power, and he'll ask that commissioner to withdraw the case.

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Speaker 2: If that's what happens, a very very big test for

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Speaker 2: the independence of the Securities and Exchange Commission when.

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Speaker 1: They mentioned earlier, Sean. The diabetes and weight loss drugs,

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Speaker 1: a new global report says too many people are being

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Speaker 1: diagnosed as obese, pushing demand for weight loss drugs, when

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Speaker 1: in reality, definitions probably need to be a little bit

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Speaker 1: more nuanced.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so doctors should consider the overall health of patients

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Speaker 2: with excess fat rather than just measuring their body mass index.

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Speaker 2: According to a report from fifty medical experts was published

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Speaker 2: published in the Lancelot Diabetes and Endochronology Journal, something which

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Speaker 2: I obviously look at every quarter or a month, or

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Speaker 2: however often it comes out. More than a billion people

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Speaker 2: are estimated to be living with obesity worldwide, and prescription

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Speaker 2: weight loss drugs are in very high demand. But those

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Speaker 2: with chronic illnesses caused by their weight should be diagnosed

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Speaker 2: with clinical obesity. According to the report, those with no

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Speaker 2: health problems should be diagnosed with pre clinical obesity. That

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Speaker 2: nuance really will distinguish those who are run well and

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Speaker 2: those who well. Currently, in many countries, obesity is defined

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Speaker 2: as having a BMI body mass index over thirty, a

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Speaker 2: measurement that estimates body fat based on height and weight.

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Speaker 2: Access to weight loss drugs such as we Go be

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Speaker 2: zep is often restricted to patients in that category.

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Speaker 1: And just quickly shawn a bit of an update on

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Speaker 1: what would have been probably one of the most extraordinary

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Speaker 1: stories that we had towards the end of last year.

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Speaker 1: South Korea's president has now been arrested after a standoff

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Speaker 1: with police.

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Speaker 2: Yun sucks yol was arrested yesterday morning following a pre

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Speaker 2: dawn raid by police and investigators on his fortified hilltop compound.

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Speaker 2: According to the FT, Ewing's detention followed a six hour

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Speaker 2: standoff between law enforcement officials and members of his security detail.

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Speaker 2: It's the first time in South Korea's history that a

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Speaker 2: sitting president has been arrested. Now, remember he failed in

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Speaker 2: his attempt to impose martial law last month. That triggered

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Speaker 2: a slump in confidence. He was suspended from duties. He

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Speaker 2: was impeached by parliament in December his attempt to impose

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Speaker 2: martial law. He then effectively went into hiding and had

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Speaker 2: his security detail stop people entering his compound. Anyway, yesterday

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Speaker 2: morning he finally got arrested.

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Speaker 1: And it's just extraordinary to think that this is all

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Speaker 1: unfolding in a country that is really an economic powerhouse,

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Speaker 1: right with big companies, multinational companies like Hyundai and Samsung

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Speaker 1: and Kia and a bunch of these other ones, that

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Speaker 1: there is so much political instability in a country that

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Speaker 1: you would expect to be a lot more stable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, totally. I don't know much. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: don't know much about South Korean history, but from Western eyes,

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Speaker 2: which we are, it does seem extraordinary that it happens. Indeed.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: Your guest today, Sean Wyke from Wilson Asset Management, all

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Speaker 1: about Ossie tech Stocks, is coming up in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed

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Speaker 1: dot com dot au. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Hey you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the sixteenth of January twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook by Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day,

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Speaker 1: h