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Speaker 1: Retail stocks have surged, but there are signs that the

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Speaker 1: sector is starting to struggle with a spate of profit

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Speaker 1: downgrades in recent weeks. The opposition's nuclear policy could cost

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Speaker 1: up to six hundred billion dollars, and one of the

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Speaker 1: world's greatest athletes has big plans to revolutionize athletics. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who

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Speaker 1: make their own decisions. It is Monday, the twenty fourth

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Speaker 1: of June twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer, Good morning, Michael Sewan. The main story this

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Speaker 1: morning the share price of some of Australia's biggest retail brands.

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Speaker 1: They've had a great run really over the last year,

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Speaker 1: despite the cost of living crisis, but there are a

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Speaker 1: few doubts about whether it can last.

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Speaker 2: Over the last year, tech stocks have done best, but

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Speaker 2: the next best sub index of the AX, alongside the

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Speaker 2: financials in terms of performance at least, is consumer discretionary stocks,

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Speaker 2: which includes most of the retailers. Jp HIPI share price

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Speaker 2: over the past year is up more than fifty percent.

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Speaker 2: So two Premier Investments, which owns Peter Alexander Smiggles and

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Speaker 2: a bunch of other retailers revel Groups up about the

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Speaker 2: same amount, while Harvey Norman's jumped forty percent. The biggest

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Speaker 2: consumer discretionary retailer is Bunning's, owned by Wes Farmers. That

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Speaker 2: company has many parts to it, but the success that

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Speaker 2: the hardware chain has been a key reason why West

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Speaker 2: Farmer's share price is up forty percent over the past

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Speaker 2: twelve months. Some of the smaller companies have done even better.

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Speaker 2: Temple and Webster and Universal Stores share prices have more

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Speaker 2: than doubled since this time last year. Beacon Lighting and

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Speaker 2: Levisa are both up about eighty three percent. Nick Scarley's

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Speaker 2: up about sixty five percent. Can It last well? Late

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Speaker 2: last week, two retailers Albert poorly performing retailers over the

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Speaker 2: last year, warned of tough times. Mosaic Brands, which owns Autographed,

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Speaker 2: non e b, Rockman's, Rivers and Miller's, said it expects

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Speaker 2: a loss this financial year. It blamed inventory and logistical problems.

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Speaker 2: Share price finished down twelve percent. It's out about twenty

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Speaker 2: four percent in twenty twenty four, and KMD Brands, owner

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Speaker 2: of Catmandu and Ripcor, warned of weaker sales this financial

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Speaker 2: year as rising living costs hit consumers. It's share price

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Speaker 2: for eight percent. It's off about fifty percent so far

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Speaker 2: in this calendar year. There have been others, including car

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Speaker 2: parts group bapcoor maybe Bunting with another that have downgraded

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Speaker 2: full year earnings. And City Sheik raised twenty three million

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Speaker 2: dollars on Friday. That's okay, but it was at a

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Speaker 2: fifty percent discount to its trading price. That is massive.

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Speaker 2: So we've had this great run. Suddenly we're seeing some companies,

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Speaker 2: some retail companies, just saying things are getting a bit tough.

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Speaker 1: So what's it mean? Then, Sean is the best over

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Speaker 1: for the retail stocks.

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Speaker 2: Well, if you're going to invest in retail stocks, go

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Speaker 2: ask a financial planner. That's rule number one. We're not

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Speaker 2: an investment podcast, of course, but if you look at

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Speaker 2: the stock prices of the discretionary retailers, generally they did

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Speaker 2: really well until late March, then they fell sharply. They've

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Speaker 2: gone up once again over the past month or so.

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Speaker 2: This reflects interest rate expectations because it freates four or

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Speaker 2: money in people's pocket to spend, and that's good for retailers.

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Speaker 2: The smoking all this is the one July tax cuts,

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Speaker 2: they could really help the sector also, But there are

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Speaker 2: certainly companies struggling to find customers at the moment KMD, Mosaic, Babcore, Baby, Bunting.

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Speaker 2: As we head to the end of the financial year,

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Speaker 2: it's very possible we're going to see more downgrades from

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Speaker 2: some of the retailers who lie heavily on people logging

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Speaker 2: on or walking into a shop and spending. And if

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Speaker 2: we do, it comes after a very strong run for

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Speaker 2: many of the retail stocks.

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Speaker 1: Sean seem's a very good time to mention our interview

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Speaker 1: that's coming up after the show. You've got a great

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Speaker 1: chat today with Oscar Oberg, who is the small caps

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Speaker 1: analyst at Wilson Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: So small cap stocks have, as Oscar puts it, it's

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Speaker 2: been years they're supposed to be outperforming the large cap stocks.

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Speaker 2: They just haven't done it yet. Now it will happen,

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Speaker 2: Oscar says, it's a matter of exactly when. So we

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Speaker 2: talked him about that as well as running through I

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Speaker 2: think there's three or four of Oscar's favorite stocks to

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Speaker 2: think about if you're interested in investing in small caps.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I really enjoy this one because particularly towards the

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Speaker 1: end of the interview. Oscar just rattles off just a

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Speaker 1: company after company after company and his thoughts on those businesses.

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Speaker 1: It is fascinating listening for anyone interested in investing. It

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Speaker 1: is well worth a listen, So stick around for that one.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up after the show. Local market Sewan. How

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Speaker 1: do they finish up? On Friday?

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Speaker 2: There's and PASX two hundred closed up zero point three

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Speaker 2: percent two seven seven hundred and ninety six points for

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Speaker 2: the week. The Boss was up nearly one percent. Come

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Speaker 2: off makes share price hit a new record on Friday

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Speaker 2: morning before falling back at touch. It is now just

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Speaker 2: a slither, well a four billion dollar slither below the

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Speaker 2: value of BHP lot That long ago, BHP was around

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent bigger than the Commonwealth Bank, but the

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Speaker 2: minor share price has dropped fifteen percent in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: commov Bank is up twelve percent. The HP is now

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Speaker 2: valued at two hundred and seventeen billion dollars, Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: at two hundred and thirteen billion dollars. Futures training suggests

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Speaker 2: the SMPA six two hundred will open slightly lower today.

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Speaker 1: All right, Checking international markets, now thanks to blue chip communication,

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Speaker 1: the experts helping financial services companies markets communicate and grow.

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Speaker 1: Is a blue chipcommunication dot com dot au as everyone's

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Speaker 1: still talking about in video, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Ah, they certainly are well. Actually, Waltreet ended slightly lower

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Speaker 2: over the weekend in video, dropped three percent, So the

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Speaker 2: largest company on Wall Street over the weekend went back

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Speaker 2: to Apple. Apple over nvideo for now, Michael, for now,

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Speaker 2: fear not. I'm sure I'll come back anyway.

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Speaker 1: Quite fun too, what, Sean. Any listeners who haven't enjoyed

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Speaker 1: I'll say the weekend edition of Fear and Greed, it's

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Speaker 1: worth going back and having a listen to it because

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Speaker 1: the subject of Invidia and just how remarkable that story

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Speaker 1: is and it's rise, and how much it would be

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Speaker 1: worth if you invested one thousand dollars when it listed

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Speaker 1: back in nineteen ninety and all of this kind of

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Speaker 1: stuff we get across.

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Speaker 2: All of that.

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Speaker 1: Very hard to convince our colleague Adam Lang that it's

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Speaker 1: a remarkable story, but you and I agree it is right.

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Speaker 2: It is remarkable, no doubt about it.

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Speaker 1: Fascinating. Sorry, go on, I've interrupted, No, No, that's right.

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Speaker 2: Beyond nvideo, Brent Krud's up a touch gold down a

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Speaker 2: touch copper, which is considered a bell whether commodity because

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Speaker 2: it tends to track the performance of the economy, is

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Speaker 2: off nearly ten percent since its most recent peak a

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Speaker 2: month ago. Over the past month, expectations of higher for

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Speaker 2: longer rates have risen. That's tendered optimism about economic growth

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Speaker 2: and Michael, the Ausy dollar starts the week buying a

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Speaker 2: nearly sixty six and a half US.

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Speaker 1: Since all right, Sean, we've got plenty to get through.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news Sean. The coalition's nuclear plan could

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Speaker 1: cost up to six hundred billion dollars yet only apply

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Speaker 1: a small portion of Australia's energy mixed by twenty to fifty.

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Speaker 2: That's according to the Smart Energy Council. While VCSIRO has

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Speaker 2: forecast that building seven reactors would cost one hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixteen billion dollars, the Council said that could be learn

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Speaker 2: to six hundred billion dollars based on budget and timeline blowouts,

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Speaker 2: the cost of refurbishing coal fire power stations, and compensating

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Speaker 2: state governments. The nuclear debate is taking much of the

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Speaker 2: spotlight at the moment, or at least the political spotlight. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Opposition energy spokesperson Ten O'Brien conceded the government wouldn't know

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Speaker 2: all the details of its energy proposal by the next

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Speaker 2: federal election, and former Prime Minister Paul Keating, well, he

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Speaker 2: gave his two cents worth. He wrote of Peter Dunton,

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Speaker 2: and I quote, only the most wicked and cynical of

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Speaker 2: individuals would foist such a blight on an earnest community

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Speaker 2: like Australia. He then called him a charlatan and a

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Speaker 2: climate change to nihilist Sean.

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Speaker 1: When you were working in newspapers and you've edited newspapers

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Speaker 1: all this kind of thing, how much did you appreciate

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Speaker 1: someone like Paul Keating because you knew that he would

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Speaker 1: give you a headline?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean to be honest, he was sort of

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Speaker 2: before my time. But all the people who are older

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Speaker 2: than me, they all lamented the loss of Keating just

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Speaker 2: because he was so much fun.

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Speaker 1: But even in retirement though, he could almost still call

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Speaker 1: him up and still give you a good line.

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Speaker 2: Right. He went through a period where he didn't like

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Speaker 2: the media and he didn't talk to them, But in

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Speaker 2: more recent years He certainly has been out there saying

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Speaker 2: what he thinks.

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Speaker 1: Oh was at the case. Was there a bit of

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Speaker 1: a period where he.

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Speaker 2: Just there was a lull of Paul keating lull, definitely,

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Speaker 2: But he's in more recent years he's found his voice again.

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Speaker 1: Shall we say he's back with a vengeance, Yes, with

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Speaker 1: a vengeance.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly right.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean. There was another drop in the preliminary clearance

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Speaker 1: rate for auctions across the country, from seventy two point

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Speaker 1: nine percent to seventy two point four percent.

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Speaker 2: Over the past week, more than two thousand homes went

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Speaker 2: to auction. Sydney's preliminary clearance rate came in at under

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Speaker 2: seventy one percent. That was quite a drop. Melbourne was

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Speaker 2: almost seventy three percent. It's been a little while since

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Speaker 2: Melbourne did better than Sydney. Adelaide was eighty five percent,

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Speaker 2: Canberra seventy six and a half percent, Brisbane sixty six percent.

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Speaker 1: Sean, we're closing in rapidly on the end of the

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Speaker 1: financial year. We're in the last week of the financial year.

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Speaker 1: In fact, I feel like that's almost just taken me

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Speaker 1: by surprise, and it looks like superannuation funds will return

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Speaker 1: a very healthy nine percent for the financial year.

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Speaker 2: That's the figure for the Median Growth Fund, with sixty

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Speaker 2: one to eighty percent of in growth assets things like equities,

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Speaker 2: that sort of stuff. Over the month of May, the

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Speaker 2: Median Growth Fund expanded by just under one percent, and

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Speaker 2: fiscal twenty twenty four will represent the thirteenth positive return

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Speaker 2: in the past fifteen years. According to chant West, given

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Speaker 2: the uncertainty around inflation and interest rates in the geopolitical climate,

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Speaker 2: nine percent returns pretty good. International share markets have driven

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Speaker 2: those returns. Since the introduction of compulsory super annuation, the

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Speaker 2: Median Growth Fund has returned seven point nine percent per annum.

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Speaker 2: Think about that, The annual CPI increase over the same

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Speaker 2: period was two point seven percent. So the difference between

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Speaker 2: the seven point nine two point seven five point two

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Speaker 2: percent that's the real return per annum, well above what

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Speaker 2: superannuation funds typically target. Chant West then considered the past

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Speaker 2: twenty years, which includes three major sheer market downturns, the

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Speaker 2: GFC in two seven to eight COVID nineteen and then

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Speaker 2: the high inflation rising interest rates of twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: Even in those two decades, superfunds have returned seven point

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Speaker 2: three percent per annum, which is still comfortably ahead of

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Speaker 2: the typical objective of a superfund. Done pretty well over

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Speaker 2: the last twenty years, and even better since compulsory superannuation

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Speaker 2: was introduced. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. It isn't often you get the heads of News

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Speaker 1: Corp and Australia Nine Entertainments and Seven West Media sitting

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Speaker 1: together nodding heads sean it must be said in furious agreement.

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Speaker 1: But it happened on Friday at an inquiry into the

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Speaker 1: behavior of the social media giants a common enemy.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it sure did. News is Michael Miller nine's Mike

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Speaker 2: Sneezeby in Seven Wests Jeffrey Howard appeared in unison at

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Speaker 2: the parliamentary inquiry, which is looking at influence and impact

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Speaker 2: of social media on Australian society. As you mentioned it,

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Speaker 2: there was furious agreement between the three on the need

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Speaker 2: to clamp down on harmful content online and questions about

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Speaker 2: Meta's decision to walk away from paying Australian media companies.

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Speaker 2: The gist of the argument is that the big media

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Speaker 2: companies are regulated, but the Internet is not. As mister

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Speaker 2: Miller put it, I quote, social media has become a

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Speaker 2: toxic force in our society with online scams and blackmail,

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Speaker 2: cyber bullying and trolling, deep fakes, and political interference. He

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Speaker 2: added that Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, was preparing

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Speaker 2: to blackmail both the left sgacy media industry and the government.

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Speaker 2: Mister seeds to be also warned of job losses if

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Speaker 2: commercial arrangements weren't adhered to Sean.

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Speaker 1: The northern summer is upon US and many Australians are

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Speaker 1: gearing up to travel to Europe. New data shows that

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Speaker 1: among the major countries, Italy is where Australians are most

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Speaker 1: likely to have insurance claims Yeah So.

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Speaker 2: Manibank data shows that customers made more claims in Italy

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Speaker 2: than anywhere else UK, Greece, France, Spain. The most common

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Speaker 2: issues related to medical episodes, hospital stays in stolen or lust,

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Speaker 2: luggage in personal effects. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

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Speaker 2: statistics show Italy was also where more Australian passports went

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Speaker 2: Australia than anywhere else in the world, according to a

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Speaker 2: story in The Australian. According to Manibank, the two highest

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Speaker 2: travel insurance claims made by Australians in Europe last year

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Speaker 2: were initially one was for sixty seven thousand dollars. The

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Speaker 2: O forty two thousand dollars average claims about fifteen hundred dollars.

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Speaker 2: Is not that much surprise, because Isially really is a

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Speaker 2: hot tourist spot. For Australian's last northern summer, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty one thousand Aussies made short term visits to Italy,

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Speaker 2: well above the pre COVID level of one hundred and

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Speaker 2: six thousand.

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Speaker 1: Thousands of CFMEU members in Melbourne have endorsed a new

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Speaker 1: patent pay deal that delivers twenty one percent in wage

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Speaker 1: rises over four years, reinstates a host of conditions scrapped

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Speaker 1: under the coalition's building Code, and allows union officials to

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Speaker 1: enter sites without a legal permit if they have agreement

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Speaker 1: of the employer.

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Speaker 2: The four annual five percent pay rises will apply a

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Speaker 2: month earlier each year under a back paid clause in

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Speaker 2: the agreement that also locks in a thirty six hour

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Speaker 2: week existing rostered days off monthly paid union meetings that

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Speaker 2: increases in funeral coverage from nine thousand dollars to fifteen

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars. According to media reports. The agreement reinstates previously

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Speaker 2: banned content under the building code, including clauses requiring employers

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Speaker 2: to convert casuals to permanent employment, limit the use of

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Speaker 2: labor higher in ratios, to employ a minimum number of apprentices.

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Speaker 2: Addressing the meeting, Victorian, CFMU construction Secretary John Sedka last

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Speaker 2: week said he was sick of criticism that construction workers

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Speaker 2: were overpaid, defending the two hundred thousand dollars plus a

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Speaker 2: year pay of traffic controllers, who he said did a

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Speaker 2: dangerous job.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news, now, I mentioned this one

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Speaker 1: at the top of the show. Shawn one of the

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Speaker 1: greatest short distance runners ever. US Olympic champion Michael Johnson

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Speaker 1: wants to revolutionize athletics, and he's unveiled a new competition

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Speaker 1: to elevate elite athletes and athletics.

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Speaker 2: It's called Graham Slam Track. It's scheduled to start next year.

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Speaker 2: There will be four Grand Slams, two in the US,

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Speaker 2: two outside the US. It'll be backed by about thirty

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Speaker 2: million US dollars of commitments from investors, including money from

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Speaker 2: the business of hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman. Johnson told

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Speaker 2: The Financial Times that the competition was built for today's

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Speaker 2: order Biggins and each athlete will compete twice at each

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Speaker 2: slam event. Johnson said fans want to see athletes more

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Speaker 2: than once at a track meet. Couldn't agree more. Great

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Speaker 2: way for you, saying Bolt, but you know, if you

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Speaker 2: duck out to get a cup of team and the

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Speaker 2: races are but that's it. So he wants them to

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Speaker 2: compete at least twice at the same event. Already, some

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Speaker 2: Olympic athletes have said they'll be joining the group. Under

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Speaker 2: the proposal, that will be forty eight paid races earning

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Speaker 2: a minimum fee and forty eight challenges. World Athletics earlier

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Speaker 2: this month revealed plans to set up a new binnial

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Speaker 2: competition from twenty twenty six. Athletics, like swimming and cycling,

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Speaker 2: has a huge fan base, but really limited opportunities for

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Speaker 2: people to attend events and to see the best track

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Speaker 2: in field athletes. So a little bit like lib golf

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Speaker 2: has attempted to do in that sport, this is a

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Speaker 2: way of bringing the best athletes to more people.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a great idea. Good luck to him.

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Speaker 1: That would be fantastic if it really kind of pumped

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Speaker 1: a bit of money in and got people really engaged

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Speaker 1: with it.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, they've been I think the track and field events

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Speaker 2: at the Olympics, which you're on next month, I think

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Speaker 2: they're almost the best of the lot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I actually completely agree with you. Somewhere where

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Speaker 1: we don't agree, Sean is on this next story. It's

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Speaker 1: a bit of an update really on a story from

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Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. The members of Queen have reportedly

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Speaker 1: sold the rights to their music for one billion at

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Speaker 1: b billion pounds. That's a new record for a rock band.

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Speaker 2: Sony have bought the rights from the three surviving members

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Speaker 2: in the estate of Freddie Mercury, according to Variety, But

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Speaker 2: it's a complicated deal. For example, all four members of

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Speaker 2: the band wrote a number one hit, so normally sometimes

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Speaker 2: the rights get split up depending on who's done the

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Speaker 2: writing the number one hits. Well, they all wrote number

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Speaker 2: one hits. North American rights are still with Disney. Two

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Speaker 2: of the original members, Sir Brian May and Roger Taylor,

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Speaker 2: are still touring with Adam Lambert singing, so it's very convoluted.

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Speaker 2: But it looks like they did sell the rights to

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Speaker 2: their music for a record one billion pounds. Well deserved. Michael,

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Speaker 2: that Queen should be getting more than anyone else would

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Speaker 2: you agree?

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Speaker 1: Oh? Look, it's it's well deserved. Look until such time

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Speaker 1: as Barry Gibb decides to sell the Beg's incredible catalog,

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Speaker 1: then I think, Look, you know what, just guessing we'd

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Speaker 1: be somewhere in the two to three billion dollar range.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I mean you reckon, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean you should be. That man is a hit maker,

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Speaker 1: not just for him but for everyone else. Yep, yep, yep. Oh,

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Speaker 1: Michael Sean, you don't agree with fine, that's right. We

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Speaker 1: will continue this debate some other time, perhaps on the

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Speaker 1: next edition of the Weekend edition, which is coming up

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Speaker 1: in only five days time. I'm looking forward to us.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview Oscar

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Speaker 1: Oberg from Wilson Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: As you guest today, all about investing in small caps,

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Speaker 2: smaller companies. Why hasn't been that successful in the last

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Speaker 2: kind of few years. But Oscar is very confident that

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Speaker 2: it will be successful. He can give us some tips

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Speaker 2: about what he's going to invest in or interested investing in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist.

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Speaker 1: Before that, though, is Fear and Greed the week Ahead,

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Speaker 1: featuring Steven could call us our resident economist.

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Speaker 2: Yep, sure, Stephen, very excited this week about the monthly

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Speaker 2: inflation figures you out. We all know that interest rate

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Speaker 2: decisions will be based very much on what's happening to

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Speaker 2: price rises. Well, it's only a monthly figure. It's enough,

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Speaker 2: certainly to get see it excited.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sure is so. Plenty of good listening coming up

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fearangreed dot com today you, which is also

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Speaker 1: where you can sign up for the free weekly newsletter

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Speaker 1: which comes out on Wednesday morning. So head along to

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Speaker 1: the website, pop your email addressing and you will get

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Speaker 1: that newsletter in your inbox about about eleven o'clock or

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Speaker 1: so on Wednesday morning. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the twenty fourth of June twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.