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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we

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Speaker 1: ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Suan Alma. The Australian economy is at an interesting

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Speaker 1: point right now. House prices are rising, consumers are a

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Speaker 1: bit more confident, and infation seems to be largely under control.

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Speaker 1: We think the labor market still remains reasonably strong. And

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Speaker 1: then we've got big international variables like US tariffs and

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Speaker 1: trade tensions between the US and China creating more uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: So what does the next year hold for Australia. Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Bank's economics team has just released its twenty twenty six outlook.

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Speaker 1: Luke Jaman is Commonwealth Bank Chief Economist. Look, welcome back

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Sean Great too back.

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Speaker 1: So what's the state of play? Where do we sit

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Speaker 1: at the moment.

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Speaker 2: We're in a really interesting juncture because we've got clear

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Speaker 2: signs of the economy. The Australian economy is strengthening. We're

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Speaker 2: seeing consumption pick up, we're seeing house prices rise, and

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Speaker 2: so we're seeing that cyclic glopswing come through in the

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Speaker 2: economy that we've all been waiting for. Through the first

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Speaker 2: few months of this year. It's a little behind time,

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Speaker 2: but it is coming through. On the other hand, we

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Speaker 2: are seeing inflation rear its head again a little bit

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Speaker 2: early days, but we're seeing inflation start to pick up

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Speaker 2: again in the September quarter, which is certainly going to

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Speaker 2: give the Reserve Bank pause for thought. And the labor

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Speaker 2: market is softening. So there are some cross currents that

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Speaker 2: are making the picture really interesting.

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Speaker 1: Just take a step back and give me it. Give

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Speaker 1: us an economics lesson here, Luke, is there a perfect

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Speaker 1: spot for the economy? I mean, the Reserve Bank's supposed

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Speaker 1: to keep full employment and prices a lid on prices.

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Speaker 1: You could almost argue they're there now, though maybe we

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Speaker 1: don't have economic great so like, how does it all work?

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Speaker 2: That's a great question. The Reserve Bank talks a lot

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Speaker 2: about balance, bringing supply and demand in the economy into balance.

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Speaker 2: The economists talk about a neutral rate, or reach full

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Speaker 2: employment or the NEHRU, But what it means is that

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Speaker 2: the economy is operating broadly and balance, the level of

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Speaker 2: supplies matching the level of demand, prices are stable, growth

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Speaker 2: is a solid The facts are today we're quite close

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Speaker 2: to that. Everyone accepts. We're close to around neutral. Growth

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Speaker 2: has picked up, we've got inflation coming back towards the

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Speaker 2: target band, and employment is sitting around full employment under

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Speaker 2: our four point three percent. So we're in a fine

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Speaker 2: tuning world now. And the question is where do we

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Speaker 2: go from here. Do we start to see the economy

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Speaker 2: pick up and drive inflation back above the target band,

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Speaker 2: or instead, do we see the economy continue to soften

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Speaker 2: a bit further the unemployment rate tick up a little more,

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Speaker 2: which could pave the way for further rate cuts. But

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Speaker 2: we're very close to that. The concept of balance right now.

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Speaker 1: I'll get to your forecast in a moment, but just

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Speaker 1: before that, I want to talk about productivity because that's

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Speaker 1: a really important part of this balance being maintained without

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Speaker 1: getting issued up in inflation or poor economic growth or

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Speaker 1: that type of thing. Just explain that.

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Speaker 2: You know, productivity is at the heart sits at the

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Speaker 2: heart of all of our economic variables, and it's the

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Speaker 2: main source over time in which we get long term

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Speaker 2: improvements and living standards. And if productivity is lifting, then

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Speaker 2: you can generate more growth, more activity without generating inflation.

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Speaker 2: So we want to see productivity lift. Unfortunately, in Australia.

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Speaker 2: Over the past couple of years, COVID has thrown the

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Speaker 2: productivity stats around quite a bit, but when you look

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Speaker 2: through that, productivity has not been where we want it

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Speaker 2: to be. It's been too low. The Reserve Bank recently

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Speaker 2: and their recent statement on monetary policy actually downgrade of

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Speaker 2: their technical assumption for productivity. And we're hoping to start

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Speaker 2: seeing a lift over time, but that's going to be

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Speaker 2: dependent on seeing a lift in the private side of

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Speaker 2: the economy and non market jobs, which tend to be

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Speaker 2: more productive. And we are seeing signs that's coming through,

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Speaker 2: but there's still some way to go.

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Speaker 1: Is it something that I mean, Michelle Bullock the other

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Speaker 1: day talked about demands shifting from public to private. We

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Speaker 1: know that when lots of people got jobs within the

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Speaker 1: public sector around aged here and I mean they're less well,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't help the productivity numbers. And don't like to

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Speaker 1: say they're less productive, but that doesn't help the productivity numbers.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that's a natural shift or do we

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Speaker 1: need government policy? Do we need business being incentivized to

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Speaker 1: invest more? How do you kind of give it a kickstart?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's two things going on here. So

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Speaker 2: if you look back at the economy over the twelve

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Speaker 2: months to say March this year, almost all of the

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Speaker 2: growth in the economy, both in terms of GDP growth

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Speaker 2: and jobs growth, was coming from the government sector. GDP

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Speaker 2: was running at about one point three percent annually and

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Speaker 2: around one percent of that in March was coming directly

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Speaker 2: from the government sector. So that's been the big driver

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Speaker 2: of jobs and growth in the economy. Some of that

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Speaker 2: is a structural shift. We've seen huge growth in healthcare,

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Speaker 2: in the National Disability Insurance Scheme and some of the

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Speaker 2: other services that it will consume. That is a structural

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Speaker 2: shift and I don't think that's going to go away

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Speaker 2: anytime soon. There's a larger share of the economy being

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Speaker 2: devoted to those kind of public services, and they do

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Speaker 2: tend to be, at least in measured terms, lower productivity,

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Speaker 2: so that's skewing the numbers overall. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: we had a cyclical decline, a temporary decline in private demand,

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Speaker 2: and that was because of higher registrates, higher inflation. That

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Speaker 2: looks like it's now turning around and we are seeing

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Speaker 2: a solid pickup in private sector jobs and that should

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Speaker 2: mean that we start to see a bit of a

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Speaker 2: cyclical improvement in the productivity numbers, which will help bring

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Speaker 2: down costs to business of employing workers what we call

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Speaker 2: unit aper costs, and that should help the RBA on

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Speaker 2: the inflation front.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so what is your outlook for inflation and interest rates?

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Speaker 1: So what's come wealth banks outlook for inflation interst rates?

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Speaker 2: So at this stage, what we expect to see is

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Speaker 2: inflation coming down a little further. Inflation was steadily on

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Speaker 2: the down, on the downslide, moving back towards the midpoint

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Speaker 2: of the inflation target at two point five percent. We

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Speaker 2: saw in the June quarter a positive set of numbers,

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Speaker 2: But in July and August we've seen the monthly inflation

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Speaker 2: figures tick up, and that has certainly given the market

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Speaker 2: quite a bit of pause for concern and us here

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Speaker 2: at CBA, it's a bit early to say whether that

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Speaker 2: is a permanent shift back up in inflation or whether

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Speaker 2: it's a temporary pause. Our current view is that we

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Speaker 2: still expect to see a little bit of further disinflation

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Speaker 2: in coming months. Part of the reason for that is

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Speaker 2: that we're still seeing the labor markets soften. Jobs growth

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Speaker 2: has slowed to around five to ten thousand jobs new

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Speaker 2: jobs a month, whereas previously it was running closer to

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Speaker 2: thirty or forty thousand new jobs a month. And our

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Speaker 2: internal CBA data is showing that wages growth is continuing

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Speaker 2: to ease in the economy as well. So with the

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Speaker 2: weakening labor market and slower wages, we think inflation will

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Speaker 2: come down a little further and that will allow the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank to cut rates one more time in this

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Speaker 2: cycle in February twenty twenty six. But the risks are

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Speaker 2: very finely balanced and they sit to the upside, so

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Speaker 2: it is possible that we've seen the last rate cut

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Speaker 2: in this cycle.

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Speaker 1: Okay, house prices come off. Thank being the biggest mortgage

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Speaker 1: lender in the country, what do you expect from house prices?

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Speaker 2: One of the hard and fast rules of economics in

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Speaker 2: Australia is when interest rates are coming down, house prices

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Speaker 2: start to rise. And we're certainly seeing a solid pickup

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Speaker 2: in house prices now. Our latest forecasts are that we'll

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Speaker 2: see a six percent increase in house is this year

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Speaker 2: and a four percent increase in house prices next year,

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Speaker 2: so ten percent for the cycle we took it. That's

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Speaker 2: a relatively conservative view because there are some factors working

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Speaker 2: against higher house prices right now. We've got population growth

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Speaker 2: starting to slow, we've still got some affordability constraints in

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Speaker 2: the market, and this is a relatively shallow interest rate

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Speaker 2: cutting cycle. We're predicting only one hundred basis points of

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Speaker 2: cuts in the whole cycle from men start to end.

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Speaker 2: So for those reasons, we went with a relatively conservative

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Speaker 2: increase of around ten percent. I think if you look

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Speaker 2: at the data so far, it's possible there's some upside

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Speaker 2: risk to that forecast. We're seeing house prices pick up

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Speaker 2: quite strongly, a little ahead of our expectations, and there's

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Speaker 2: certainly a sense of activity and anticipation in the market

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Speaker 2: as investors look for.

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Speaker 1: Returns jobs the jobs market, So.

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Speaker 2: The jobs market overall is still very strong for Australia.

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Speaker 2: The unemployment rate at four point three percent. If you

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Speaker 2: went back a few years, you would take that every day.

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Speaker 2: So fundamentally the lead market is sound. But as I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: there has been a clear slowing in the pace of

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Speaker 2: new job creation. It hasn't yet flowed through to the

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate. There is a risk that you could see

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rate tick up a little above our forecast

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Speaker 2: of four point three percent, which is around where we

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Speaker 2: are today. But at this stage we still expect to

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Speaker 2: see a soft landing overall in the labor market.

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Speaker 1: What about geopolitical factors. We have US China trade tensions,

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Speaker 1: We have the Middle East. Fortunately phase one was successful,

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Speaker 1: but we've still got to get to phase two on

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Speaker 1: that one. I know that Zelensky and Trump are scheduled

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Speaker 1: to meet later this week. How does that all play

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Speaker 1: out for Australia so far?

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Speaker 2: So far, you'd have to say Australia has been pretty

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Speaker 2: well insulated from the trade war. The direct impacts of

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Speaker 2: tariffs as relatively small. But there's some big risk out there,

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Speaker 2: and you've touched on a number of them. I think

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Speaker 2: the two that we would watch most closely, the US

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Speaker 2: China relationship, is still very fraught. President Trump and President

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Speaker 2: She planning a potential meeting in coming weeks. There is

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Speaker 2: talk of an impending trade deal, but that is not

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Speaker 2: going to be easy to land. And if we see

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Speaker 2: further a further breakdown in those negotiations, if we see

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Speaker 2: further countermeasures and countermeasures applied by China and the US

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Speaker 2: like we saw in the last few days, then we

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Speaker 2: could see more market volatility, and that's something we'd expect

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Speaker 2: to see. It's not easy for these two superpowers to

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Speaker 2: land a trade deal, and so we think that will

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Speaker 2: drag on with increased volatility affecting markets. The other key

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Speaker 2: watch point for US going into twenty twenty six is

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Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve. In the US, we expect to see

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Speaker 2: the FED cutting rates a little further three more rec

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Speaker 2: cuts in this cycle. But the Fed's independence and its

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Speaker 2: credibility is certainly under attack in the US and there

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Speaker 2: are risks that the FED loses some of its credibility,

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Speaker 2: and if that happens, that would have quite a big

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Speaker 2: impact on markets. It would push up long term inflation expectations.

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Speaker 2: It's too early to say that will happen. At this stage.

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Speaker 2: We think the FED will still maintain its independence, but

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Speaker 2: it's a real watch point for markets in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Look at Tadley left field question. I think it's apocryphal story,

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Speaker 1: but Ian McFarlane used to be the Reserve Bank governant.

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Speaker 1: They used to talk about him sitting in his reserve

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Speaker 1: in Martin Place, looking at the ships coming in and

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Speaker 1: seeing how low they sat in the water, or high

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Speaker 1: and judge the economy on that, so I'm sure it's apocryphal.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a favorite or favorite the number of

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Speaker 1: favorite economic indicators?

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Speaker 2: Huh. I like them all as an economist, but I

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Speaker 2: think one you do, but the one that i'd really highlight.

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Speaker 2: At the moment, all of the action is going to

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Speaker 2: focus around the quarterly trim mean CPI. There's been a

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Speaker 2: lot of talk about the monthly CPI versus the quarterly

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Speaker 2: CPI and what you can rely on the Reserve Bank's

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Speaker 2: being to some degree talking down the monthly statistics. I

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Speaker 2: think the biggest watch point I would have in the

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Speaker 2: economy is the quarterly trim mean. If that continues to

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Speaker 2: come down, then I think we're going to see continued

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Speaker 2: rate cuts, so at least one more red cut in

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Speaker 2: this cycle. If that doesn't keep coming down, then that's

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Speaker 2: what the Reserve Bank first and foremost will prioritize. They

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Speaker 2: talk about a dual mandate for the Reserve Bank, and

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Speaker 2: I'm sure they take that very seriously, but as central bankers,

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Speaker 2: inflation in my world always comes first.

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Speaker 1: Luke, thanks for talking to fear and greed pleasure. That

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Speaker 1: was Luke Yaman, Chief at Commonwealth Bank. If you've got

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Speaker 1: something you'd like to know, then send through your question

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, or at Fearangreed dot com dot

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Speaker 1: A you I'm sure I all THATTT and this is

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and DA