WEBVTT - Have the Nationals blown themselves up? 

0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.600
<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:13.440
<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, May twenty twenty five. Mortgage rates are on

0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:16.279
<v Speaker 1>the way down, with the Reserve Bank Board lowering the

0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.320
<v Speaker 1>cash rate by zero point two five percent to three

0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:23.600
<v Speaker 1>point eight five percent. Economists a warning inflation could rise again,

0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:26.759
<v Speaker 1>but the Bank says it's confident now is the right

0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:30.480
<v Speaker 1>time to ease up on homeowners. All our analysis and

0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:33.479
<v Speaker 1>how the housing and the lending markets are reacting is

0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.519
<v Speaker 1>live right now at the Australian dot Com Dot You

0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:44.120
<v Speaker 1>A whole new reality in Australian politics. The century old

0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:48.000
<v Speaker 1>coalition of Conservative parties is breaking up, with National Party

0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:52.160
<v Speaker 1>leader David Littlproud giving Liberal leader Susan Lee thirty minutes

0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:56.520
<v Speaker 1>notice the Nats were out today. What that actually means

0:00:56.600 --> 0:01:06.160
<v Speaker 1>for the Conservative side of politics and everyone else? It's

0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:07.760
<v Speaker 1>not you, Actually, it is you.

0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.800
<v Speaker 2>This is one of the hardest political decisions of my life.

0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:14.280
<v Speaker 1>National Party leader David Little Proud dropped a bombshell on

0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:17.160
<v Speaker 1>Liberal leader Susan Lee on Tuesday, telling her his party

0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.400
<v Speaker 1>would no longer be in a formal coalition with the Liberals.

0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:24.080
<v Speaker 2>It's with great disappointment that I announced that we're not

0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:25.680
<v Speaker 2>going to form part of that coalition.

0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.360
<v Speaker 1>Dennis Shanahan is The Australian's national editor and someone who's

0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.160
<v Speaker 1>covered the Libs and the Nats and all the quirks

0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.600
<v Speaker 1>of their relationship for many years. They can never, of

0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:39.240
<v Speaker 1>course govern in their own right unless something massive changes

0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:42.560
<v Speaker 1>Dennis and the Nationals suddenly start winning seats in the

0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:45.240
<v Speaker 1>cities as well. Do you think that this is a

0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.360
<v Speaker 1>temporary move and it's a negotiating tactic where David Little

0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:51.480
<v Speaker 1>Proud will hope to once again bring the Nationals back

0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:55.480
<v Speaker 1>into a coalition party room, or is this an attempt

0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:57.560
<v Speaker 1>to have bigger ambitions for the National Party.

0:01:58.160 --> 0:01:59.920
<v Speaker 3>I think if it's an attempt to have bigger round

0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:04.320
<v Speaker 3>for the National Party, it's pretty misguided. David Little Proud

0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:08.680
<v Speaker 3>clearly in the manner of delivering an ultimatum to Susan

0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.680
<v Speaker 3>Lee and simply saying We've got thirty minutes to talk

0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:14.320
<v Speaker 3>about that and then I'm going out to a press conference,

0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:18.480
<v Speaker 3>he put up proposals which were clearly not acceptable and

0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:23.480
<v Speaker 3>impractical and really didn't require any split and a coalition

0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:27.120
<v Speaker 3>to resolve. It was all about the National Party it

0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:31.520
<v Speaker 3>was about the National Party leadership and the revolt about

0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:35.320
<v Speaker 3>being in the coalition, anger at the loss by the Liberals,

0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:38.880
<v Speaker 3>and so what David Little Proud has done, he said,

0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:43.160
<v Speaker 3>I'm not interested in the coalition now because there's no

0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:47.120
<v Speaker 3>advantage to it at all. All the advantage to him

0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:51.160
<v Speaker 3>is to run his own show. However, I think what

0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:56.720
<v Speaker 3>he's actually done is probably completely undermined Susan Lee's leadership

0:02:56.919 --> 0:03:01.360
<v Speaker 3>and in doing so, just about guaranteed his leadership won't

0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:02.120
<v Speaker 3>last either.

0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:06.440
<v Speaker 1>Let's look at the issues that he says this is

0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:08.400
<v Speaker 1>all about. And he was doing quite a bit of

0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:10.919
<v Speaker 1>finger wagging and telling the journalists in the room that

0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:14.040
<v Speaker 1>they might not understand, but this was a principal decision.

0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:18.120
<v Speaker 2>We're being pragmatic. This is a principal position. So it

0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:20.560
<v Speaker 2>may be foreign to some of you, but we are

0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:25.240
<v Speaker 2>making this on principles about how we actually deliver for

0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.640
<v Speaker 2>the people we represent and to allow the Liberal Party.

0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:30.480
<v Speaker 1>The Nationals have a different view to the Liberals on

0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:36.480
<v Speaker 1>nuclear power, on the forced breakup of big supermarket chains,

0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:40.600
<v Speaker 1>of the establishment of a twenty billion dollar Regional Future Fund,

0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:44.840
<v Speaker 1>and on service obligations for regional areas for people in

0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:45.960
<v Speaker 1>the regions.

0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:49.320
<v Speaker 2>What we fight for every day. That's the principal position

0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.440
<v Speaker 2>we took that we needed to have comfort.

0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:55.600
<v Speaker 1>Around how important are those issues? Dennis, was this really

0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:56.600
<v Speaker 1>all about principles?

0:03:57.080 --> 0:04:01.760
<v Speaker 3>Well, going backwards, the regional fund. Really it's off budget.

0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:04.840
<v Speaker 3>It's something that could easily have been accommodator. That's not

0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:08.480
<v Speaker 3>a problem as far as nuclear power is concerned. It

0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:12.360
<v Speaker 3>was working on an agnostic basis saying this is where

0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:16.440
<v Speaker 3>the Liberals are going, and don't forget that former Nat

0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.880
<v Speaker 3>Country Liberal Party just since a Nampajimpa Price has said

0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:24.680
<v Speaker 3>nuclear is the only way to achieve net zero. So

0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.160
<v Speaker 3>if the Liberals want to keep net zero, one of

0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:31.240
<v Speaker 3>their star recruits is saying you have to have nuclear again.

0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:31.800
<v Speaker 4>It was one of.

0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:35.080
<v Speaker 3>Those areas where you could have resolved certain issues.

0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:37.960
<v Speaker 4>The Nats and the Liberals have done this for years.

0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:41.960
<v Speaker 3>So I think that what we actually have here is

0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:47.520
<v Speaker 3>a National Party leader looking for principled reasons to provide

0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:52.679
<v Speaker 3>a justifiable cause for splitting the coalition for the first

0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:57.200
<v Speaker 3>time in a very long time and allowing him to

0:04:57.240 --> 0:05:00.960
<v Speaker 3>be seen as the new Nationals leader. I don't think

0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.760
<v Speaker 3>it's working. I don't think anyone, particularly a lot of

0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:07.240
<v Speaker 3>the Liberals buy this idea, and by the way, there

0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:09.359
<v Speaker 3>aren't a lot of Nationals who buy this either.

0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:31.680
<v Speaker 1>Coming up more from my conversation with Dennis Shanahan, would

0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:34.000
<v Speaker 1>it be fair enough for Susan Lee and some of

0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:36.000
<v Speaker 1>the Liberals to have a bit of a bitter taste

0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:40.280
<v Speaker 1>in their mouths, Dennis, given that it's the National's position

0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:44.200
<v Speaker 1>on some big issues that have resulted in the coalition

0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.240
<v Speaker 1>overall and the Liberal Party looking like they were more

0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.480
<v Speaker 1>conservative than perhaps some Liberals would have wanted. I'm thinking

0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:54.800
<v Speaker 1>of the National's reluctance to embrace, for example, the transition

0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:58.160
<v Speaker 1>to renewable energy in the past. Although some Liberals did

0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:00.760
<v Speaker 1>want to go faster, they had to bring the Nationals

0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:01.480
<v Speaker 1>along with them.

0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.000
<v Speaker 3>Yes, the net zero omissions by twenty fifty was a

0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:08.200
<v Speaker 3>negotiated agreement between the Nationals and the Liberals.

0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:09.320
<v Speaker 4>Both leaders gone.

0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:14.160
<v Speaker 3>But what we're actually seeing here is the suggestion that

0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:17.680
<v Speaker 3>the moderate Liberals have a different view to the conservative Nationals.

0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.159
<v Speaker 4>And duh, this has always been the case.

0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:22.920
<v Speaker 3>If you want to see some real differences, think about

0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:26.400
<v Speaker 3>some of the old Country Party leaders. Boy did they

0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:30.039
<v Speaker 3>have some differences with the Liberals, but they survived in coalition,

0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:35.280
<v Speaker 3>and there were some really tough National Party leaders with John.

0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:36.719
<v Speaker 4>Howard who worked with him.

0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:41.719
<v Speaker 3>Look at Tim Fisher worked with John Howard on gun reform.

0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:44.560
<v Speaker 4>That was a big issue for the Nationals.

0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.400
<v Speaker 3>They didn't want to touch it, and yet Tim Fisher

0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:50.760
<v Speaker 3>brought the Nationals along. Now, that was a much tougher

0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:55.720
<v Speaker 3>issue than something about supermarket chains. And yet the coalition

0:06:55.880 --> 0:07:01.799
<v Speaker 3>survived because John Howard and Tim Fisher were coalitionists. John

0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:04.719
<v Speaker 3>Howard after the Port Arthur massacre, and this was only

0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:08.600
<v Speaker 3>a few weeks after John Howard had become Prime minister.

0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:13.840
<v Speaker 3>It was the biggest massacre in Australian history and what

0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:16.840
<v Speaker 3>the Prime Minister knew then was that we had to

0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:18.120
<v Speaker 3>change the gun laws.

0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:21.559
<v Speaker 5>At least thirty four people were killed and four others

0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:24.080
<v Speaker 5>critically wounded when a twenty nine year old gunman with

0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.640
<v Speaker 5>a history of mental problems opened fire in a popular

0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:29.440
<v Speaker 5>tourist area. The cournage came to an annually after the

0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:32.400
<v Speaker 5>gunman caught fire following a twelve hour standoff with police.

0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:36.360
<v Speaker 4>This was an imperative, it was a moral decision he took.

0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:41.960
<v Speaker 3>But to get that politics through, to get the legislation through,

0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.800
<v Speaker 3>to get through with popular support. He needed the national

0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:53.000
<v Speaker 3>support because this was a very difficult issue. Gun control

0:07:53.480 --> 0:08:05.200
<v Speaker 3>was very much opposed in the regional areas. I'm sorry,

0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:10.280
<v Speaker 3>and yet Tim Fisher, as leader of the Nationals, worked

0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:14.880
<v Speaker 3>with John Howard hand in fist and said no, we

0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:17.160
<v Speaker 3>are going to work on this, and they carried it.

0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:20.360
<v Speaker 3>And there's no doubt it cost the Nationals because it

0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:21.600
<v Speaker 3>built support for.

0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.480
<v Speaker 4>Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party.

0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:28.320
<v Speaker 3>And yet we saw the coalition survive such a severe

0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:33.400
<v Speaker 3>test to the advantage of the national interest. You can

0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.040
<v Speaker 3>work around these differences and you can turn them into

0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.800
<v Speaker 3>a strength without blowing up the bus.

0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:43.720
<v Speaker 1>Do you think, Dennis, that it's in the best interest

0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:47.640
<v Speaker 1>for the Liberals to keep working, be patient, hope that

0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:51.280
<v Speaker 1>the Nationals come back to the coalition, or to look

0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:53.640
<v Speaker 1>at other options. Should they think about going into coalition,

0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:54.920
<v Speaker 1>for example with the Teals.

0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.480
<v Speaker 3>It's funny you should mention that because I had a

0:08:57.520 --> 0:09:01.439
<v Speaker 3>message from someone who shall remain named, suggesting that I

0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:06.600
<v Speaker 3>reread The Gbung Polo Club by Banjo Patterson. Now, the

0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:10.640
<v Speaker 3>Gbung Polo Club is about a polo match on a

0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:14.640
<v Speaker 3>rocky field between the Collis and Ties. The bosses and

0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:20.000
<v Speaker 3>cockies and the whole bunch of scrub dwelling stockman. In

0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:24.720
<v Speaker 3>the end, everyone on the Gbung Polo Club match is

0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:30.120
<v Speaker 3>killed until the last moment the captain of the collis

0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:31.559
<v Speaker 3>and Ties stirs himself.

0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:33.160
<v Speaker 4>Although mortally wounded, he.

0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:36.720
<v Speaker 3>Makes his way back onto his pony, charges towards the

0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.640
<v Speaker 3>goalposts and hits the ball and misses.

0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.400
<v Speaker 4>So it ended in a tie with them all dead.

0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.000
<v Speaker 3>This was what the reference to the Gbung Polo Club

0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:50.680
<v Speaker 3>was all about. That without each other, they will all die,

0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:56.280
<v Speaker 3>and the Nationals at facing like so many more conservative

0:09:56.320 --> 0:10:00.520
<v Speaker 3>parties regional parties in Europe, that what will happen to them?

0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:02.520
<v Speaker 4>They'll be reduced to a rump.

0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:07.000
<v Speaker 3>Now, the Liberal Party is more likely to attract some

0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:10.400
<v Speaker 3>of the Teals and have some sort of a coalition.

0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:14.760
<v Speaker 3>But remember most of those Teals, or all of those

0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:19.199
<v Speaker 3>Teals have come from Liberal seats, so there's no great

0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:23.320
<v Speaker 3>advantage for the Liberals in forming a coalition with the Teals.

0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.240
<v Speaker 3>They have to win those Teal seats back. But if

0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:29.600
<v Speaker 3>they wish to get back to government, the Nationals will

0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:33.280
<v Speaker 3>have to come back to the coalition. And this is

0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:37.720
<v Speaker 3>the question for David Little Proud because in three years time,

0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:41.480
<v Speaker 3>facing an election, and who knows what may have happened

0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:45.240
<v Speaker 3>by then. And then the question is what happens to

0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:49.720
<v Speaker 3>David Little Proud if he is against the coalition and

0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:53.880
<v Speaker 3>a majority of Liberals and Nationals say, if we have

0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:57.079
<v Speaker 3>any hope of winning, any hope of even getting back seats,

0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.440
<v Speaker 3>we need a coalition, where does that put him with

0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:02.680
<v Speaker 3>his thirty minute ultimatum decision.

0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:13.839
<v Speaker 1>Lee des Shanahan is The Australian's National editor. You can

0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:16.439
<v Speaker 1>read all his analysis, plus all the rest of our

0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:19.959
<v Speaker 1>expertise on Canberra and politics from the rest of the country,

0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:22.960
<v Speaker 1>right now at the Australian dot com dot au