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Speaker 1: The US election is moving closer and closer. I think

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Speaker 1: interest is growing right around the world in what is

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Speaker 1: a very very close contest. I had to look at

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Speaker 1: the poles. Is an organization called five three eight, which

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Speaker 1: is the number total number of electorate colleges or college

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Speaker 1: votes needed to elect a president, and they do a

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Speaker 1: collaboration of all the polls going around and this morning,

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Speaker 1: just an hour or so ago, in the seven swing

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Speaker 1: states that are going to be critical in determining the election.

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Speaker 1: In five of them, Donald Trump has moved ahead narrowly,

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Speaker 1: and he is level in the other two. So with

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. At the moment, a debate or rather a

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Speaker 1: rally going on in Nevada where the family of a

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Speaker 1: young marine there speak. Donald Trump is holding a large

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Speaker 1: photo standing next to family members who are at the

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Speaker 1: podium and they're remembering their son who was killed near

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Speaker 1: the Mexico border. By the family saying illegal immigrants who

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Speaker 1: crossed the border, and so they're they're speaking in Nevada,

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Speaker 1: which the Republicans haven't won since two thousand and four,

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Speaker 1: George W. Bush. So it's actually been quite moving listening

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Speaker 1: to a little bit of that. During the news, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump stepping up now to speak himself, but let's have

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Speaker 1: a chat about where it's all heading. Professor Joe siracuso's

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Speaker 1: political analyst, Professor of Global Futures at Curtain University. Joe,

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Speaker 1: good morning once again, How are you doing all right?

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Speaker 1: Thank you? Fascinating election, the closest it's been well since

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Speaker 1: Gore and Bush in two thousand.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it is now welcome. I'm I'm eighty years old.

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Speaker 2: This is my fourteenth president. Joe Biden is my fourteenth president.

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Speaker 2: I've written lots of books as the presidential scholar and

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Speaker 2: all that, And you're right, this is a fascinating campaign

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Speaker 2: for a number of reasons, particularly Donald Trump's revive, and

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Speaker 2: he came back with Lazarus and we got Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 2: Who who is the beneficiary of the decision to turf

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Speaker 2: out Joe Biden us. Yes, she replaced Lazarus. That's right.

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Speaker 2: And you know I saw at the Ellipses yesterday giving

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Speaker 2: this speech the day before. And you know, the only

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Speaker 2: person who's stolen anything is her campaign stole the primaries,

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden. And when if she loses, and I think

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Speaker 2: I think the election is going to break in those

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Speaker 2: those states that you're talking about, the battleground states, there's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of soul searching and Democratic Party

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Speaker 2: and it'sn't all going to shoot back to Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: They're going to say he didn't leave soon enough, took

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Speaker 2: three weeks and to talk to God about whether to

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Speaker 2: leave or not. So they're going to blame blame him

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Speaker 2: for everything. But look, there's no doubt about it. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump is a consummate campaigner. That is, in terms of television,

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Speaker 2: he knows how to ham it up and he was

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Speaker 2: very popular her host for twelve years on a reality show,

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Speaker 2: and he knows how to play this thing pretty well.

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Speaker 2: Kamala looks like she's struggling. She hasn't been able to

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Speaker 2: explain to anybody why she should be president of the

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Speaker 2: United States. And look at the hell of a job.

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Speaker 2: You know, I think you'd have to have all the

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Speaker 2: credentials in the world, but people don't realize, Matthews, you

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Speaker 2: only need two things to have been born in the USA,

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Speaker 2: to be over thirty five years old. I mean, that's it.

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Speaker 2: Henny clown can run for president with those two requirements.

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Speaker 1: Well, the fluff by Joe Biden I've got it here

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Speaker 1: where he let me just play it to you, John,

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Speaker 1: Now you know it. But the comment regarding garbage, he listen, this.

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Speaker 3: Guy who also wants to place every civil sermon, every

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Speaker 3: single one, thinks he has a rated of extreme ruling

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Speaker 3: on immunity to be able to indeed be if it

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Speaker 3: was the case.

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Speaker 1: Actually, let me try this one. That's an earliest comment

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Speaker 1: by Biden or Puerto Rico.

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Speaker 4: Where I'm in my home state of Delaware. They're a good, decent,

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Speaker 4: honorable people. The only garbage I see floating out there

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Speaker 4: is just supporters his His demonization seems unconstable, and it's

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Speaker 4: not America.

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Speaker 1: We're a long while wi are they here? But that

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Speaker 1: really seems to have electrified the Trump campaign.

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Speaker 2: Well it did. It gave him something to play with

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Speaker 2: articularly jumping in the sanitation trunk and all that. Look,

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Speaker 2: when I was a kid in the nineteen fifties, we'd

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Speaker 2: go to these nightclubs. We couldn't drink there, but we'd

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Speaker 2: hear very, very risque comedians like Lenny Bruce, who would

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Speaker 2: use a lot of naughty words to talk about the

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Speaker 2: races and the ethnicities in America. In order to break

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Speaker 2: these things down. This idea of calling Puerto Rico garbage

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Speaker 2: dump is ridiculous because everybody knows it is. It's a joke,

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Speaker 2: you know, it's sort of a standing joke among Puerto

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Speaker 2: Ricans and people who love these people. And so you know,

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Speaker 2: this idea that all these Puerto Ricans that they go

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Speaker 2: were running over to Kamala hers, that's ridiculous. That's not

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Speaker 2: going to happen.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: What you have to worry about in America are the

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Speaker 2: fifty are the five million registered gun owners. I'm not

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Speaker 2: worried about people calling people names. Look but Trump was

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Speaker 2: very quick on his feet. He was in that truck,

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Speaker 2: I think within twelve hours of that comment. And look,

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Speaker 2: he's had an amazing run. You know, he's dead in

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Speaker 2: the water. And then someone took a shot at him.

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Speaker 2: And I was in Washington at the Kissinger Center for

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Speaker 2: a little for that week when he got shot, and

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Speaker 2: I was watching it live on television. I thought, my god,

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Speaker 2: this guy has just he's dodged a bullet. Literally, I mean,

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Speaker 2: you couldn't couldn't make this up. It just couldn't make

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Speaker 2: it up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And that was a pretty electrifying moment too.

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Speaker 1: Wasn't it, Because the presence of mind to ask for

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Speaker 1: his shoes after he'd been shot and then do the

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Speaker 1: fist pump with the fight, fight fight. You're right, you

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Speaker 1: can't make that up. That's that's all my scripted.

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Speaker 2: No, it is, it's right out. It's right out of Holly.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Hollywood wouldn't even dare make a scene like that.

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Speaker 2: We it was extraordinary. And you know, maybe his shoes

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Speaker 2: are expensive, he didn't want to lose him or something

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Speaker 2: like that. But look, he did have the presence of

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Speaker 2: mind on the day. And of course what do we

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Speaker 2: find out. We find out that the Secret Service let

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Speaker 2: him down very badly. You know, he had a guy

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Speaker 2: on a roof about two hundred meters away with a

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Speaker 2: beat out as a matter of fact. So he's treated

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Speaker 2: very badly. But look, I think he's going to return.

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Speaker 2: He's not going to be the end of the world.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Donald Trumpo is for sort of risk averse

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Speaker 2: about foreign wars. He's good for the business community. And

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Speaker 2: keep in mind that we know this from early American

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Speaker 2: history and in the nineteen twenties at the business of

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Speaker 2: america's his business. To me, he's a businessman Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: doesn't pretend to be a businesswoman, and so you know,

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Speaker 2: the markets like him. Wall Street likes him. A lot

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Speaker 2: of other people may not like him for different reasons.

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Speaker 2: And he's threatening to bring in all these people to

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Speaker 2: cut the cost of government. Well, that can't be a

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Speaker 2: sin in too many places, but that'll be interesting. Elon.

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Speaker 2: Can you see Elon Muskin Robert Kennedy Junior at the

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Speaker 2: same table. I mean, it just it defies imagination.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Now, one of the things he's promising,

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Speaker 1: let's assume he wins and increasingly appears that that momentum

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Speaker 1: is particularly this light stage behind him. Now, So the

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Speaker 1: threat to ramp up tariffs for companies and countries that

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Speaker 1: import into the US. Could that affect Australia if he

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Speaker 1: puts that into practice.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean if Australia plays follow the leader on this.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I've been in this country for fifty one years.

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Speaker 2: In Australia tempts to play the American musical notes, I mean,

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Speaker 2: they go along nearly with everything. The tariffs were a

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Speaker 2: very good idea in the eighteen eighties and nineties because

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Speaker 2: there was no income tax or no taxes at all

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Speaker 2: like that, so you know they were replacement. Then the

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Speaker 2: income taxt came in nineteen sixteen, tariffs became less meaningful,

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Speaker 2: and of course if I impose a terrif on you,

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Speaker 2: you could impose a terrif on me, and pretty soon

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Speaker 2: we have tariff wars and nobody goes anywhere. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think the tariff thing is a little on the

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Speaker 2: backward side, and if President Trump's minders are wide awake,

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Speaker 2: they'll keep them from doing too much damage here. But

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Speaker 2: I think Australia will get involved in this because you know,

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Speaker 2: Australia is tied to the hip to the United States

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Speaker 2: in terms of security, but not in terms of it's economics.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Australia has always had to sort of manage

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Speaker 2: the difference between Washington and Beijing in terms of its

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Speaker 2: security and its commerce. So it'll be a tricky thing.

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Speaker 2: But you know, it's not beyond Australian politicians to do

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Speaker 2: the best thing for Australia. I have to say, in

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Speaker 2: my fifty one years here, I've got to meet all

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Speaker 2: your prime ministers, and in recent years they're less interesting

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Speaker 2: than in the seventies and eighties. But I'll tell you what.

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Speaker 2: I've never seen an Australian politician give away anything to

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Speaker 2: Washington for nothing. You know, it never sacrificed Australian national

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Speaker 2: interest for American national interests. So you know they'd be

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Speaker 2: very mindful of that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, all right, Well, a couple of days to go now,

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Speaker 1: I say sixty million people have already voted. Is that

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Speaker 1: an indictment of Well, I suppose Harris was popular some

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Speaker 1: time a guy. Could that be reflected in the sixty million?

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Speaker 1: I and the mood again, we're a long wile away,

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Speaker 1: but it definitely seems to be changing.

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Speaker 2: Probably not. Keep in mind that in twenty twenty Trump

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Speaker 2: told people not to vote early. He thought it was

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Speaker 2: he thought it was rigged. I mean I come from

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Speaker 2: Cook County, Chicago, where they are rigged. I mean I

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Speaker 2: I had a grandfather, an immigrant grandfather was sicily who

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Speaker 2: worked differ the sanitation department. His job was to go

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Speaker 2: and steal of votes for the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Are you kidding?

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Speaker 2: Three years that's what they did. But you see in America,

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Speaker 2: all these political jobs have patronage. So you know, people's jobs,

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Speaker 2: their lives depend on people being re elected, you know,

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Speaker 2: and you know in nineteen sixty, everybody knew in Chicago

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Speaker 2: that Donald had Richard J. Daly had stolen the election

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Speaker 2: for the Kennedy I mean, you just get the unions out,

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Speaker 2: you bust people in with twenty dollars bills, and they're

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Speaker 2: going to vote all of a sudden. I mean it's look,

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Speaker 2: politics in America's like love and war. Everything, you know,

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Speaker 2: everything goes. It's an idea that there's something pure about

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Speaker 2: the American voting system. That's boloney.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right about I wanted to mention nineteen sixty

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Speaker 1: when you started talking about early elections and Trump claiming

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Speaker 1: last time was rigged and all of that. If any

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Speaker 1: presidential candidate ever had a right to say the election

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Speaker 1: was stolen from him, it was Richard Nixon in another

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Speaker 1: really close election in nineteen sixty. He just lost to Kennedy,

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Speaker 1: perhaps based on the first televised debate in political history

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Speaker 1: over there where Nixon people listening on radio thought he

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Speaker 1: cream Kennedy. People watching on TV had a very different

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Speaker 1: alternate view, and all the dead people who voted in

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Speaker 1: Chicago was what it came down to. Ultimately.

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Speaker 2: Well, Quitty, my grandfather on the Three Times.

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Speaker 1: I kid you not. This is what they do.

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Speaker 2: What they do all the time. Well, go, you're right,

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Speaker 2: Richard Nixon could have complained, okay, and but he let

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Speaker 2: the umpire's decision go through because he reckoned it wasn't

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Speaker 2: worth it at the end of it. He and but

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Speaker 2: he could have el Gore the same way. I mean,

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Speaker 2: el Gord got screwed over the same way. And you know,

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Speaker 2: at the end of the day, you got to take

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Speaker 2: the empire's decision. Yeah, sometimes you get robbed and you

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Speaker 2: you just go on. But I'll tell you what. There

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Speaker 2: are people who have been aggrieved at other levels to

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Speaker 2: beside the presidents level, who got screwed out of their

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Speaker 2: positions or they're elected things. So you know, it's an

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Speaker 2: ongoing thing when we have to do the best we

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Speaker 2: can to get as clean an election as possible. But

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Speaker 2: there's nothing sure about the American electoral system. You know,

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Speaker 2: you got to get people out. My concern is that

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Speaker 2: only about sixty five percent of Americans vote. The others

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Speaker 2: don't vote, and you know, what what does it take

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Speaker 2: to get them out? And some of them might be

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Speaker 2: motivated by various different things. And look, Americans are like Australians,

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Speaker 2: you know, They they're not big complainers. You know, they

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Speaker 2: put up with inflation and nonsense and corruption. You Know,

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Speaker 2: the thing that I've noticed in the last twenty years

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Speaker 2: covering American elections is just a pure corruption. You know,

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Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi's worth about three hundred million dollars and Shumer's

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Speaker 2: worth about five hundred million. We got these American politicians

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Speaker 2: who spend about fifteen million dollars to get elected for

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Speaker 2: a job that pays one hundred and seventy four thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars a year. What's that all about. You know, we

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Speaker 2: got all that in this age of corruption, and I'm

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Speaker 2: afraid it it reflects, you know, early nineteen hundreds of

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Speaker 2: the same way. We've got all these billionaires calling the shots,

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Speaker 2: and we got all these people with too much money

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Speaker 2: calling the shots. And the Democrats are fighting Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: not because they're afraid of him. They're afraid the Greevy

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Speaker 2: train's gonna end. That's what this is about. They don't

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Speaker 2: they don't want this thing to end. This these jobs

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Speaker 2: they have and the influence that they have, and these

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Speaker 2: these you know, I've been watching these these democratic wars

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Speaker 2: all my life and just keep getting into these places

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Speaker 2: where we can't win, then we just go home and

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Speaker 2: so you know, and it gets unreal, and you know,

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Speaker 2: Australian's there's a good example of my generation, the Vietnam generation.

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Speaker 2: We went to war, we lost fifty eight thousand young

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Speaker 2: men and Australian lost five hundred because they played follow

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Speaker 2: the leader. They were going to do what the Americans wanted.

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Speaker 2: At least they ponied up that kind of thing. And

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Speaker 2: so America's allies do follow. I will say this though,

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Speaker 2: I think the world will have to think of a

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Speaker 2: different way of dealing with the USA if Trump wins.

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Speaker 2: Because Trump's transactional guy. You know, he doesn't quite trust

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Speaker 2: what's going on in NATO and other places. But I

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Speaker 2: think the war in Ukraine would kind of stop because

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Speaker 2: he's going to stop paying the bills. He's going to

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Speaker 2: probably get the Israelis to pay attention to some kind

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Speaker 2: of a hole to the war in Gaza, Lebanon and

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Speaker 2: other places. I mean, Trump doesn't he's risk averse. He means,

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Speaker 2: he's very pro military, but he doesn't want to He's

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Speaker 2: sent it like an old fashioned not isolationists, but non interventionists.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't want America to get involved in these strange

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Speaker 2: foreign wars, and he's got enough sense to do that,

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Speaker 2: and that's not wrong, by the way, to rethink America's commitments.

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Speaker 2: You know, America goes about every night protecting thirty seven

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Speaker 2: nations with extended nuclear desernce. Trump says, you know, what

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Speaker 2: the hell's that all about? Well, you're right, what the

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Speaker 2: hell is that all about? So it makes it some difference,

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Speaker 2: but I'll tell you what it will be. I just

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Speaker 2: want to say finally here on these polls, I think

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Speaker 2: they got a little bit of a stench to them. Okay,

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Speaker 2: internal polling. I think the Republicans and Democrats already know

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Speaker 2: how this is going to turn out. They've done their

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Speaker 2: own pully. But when you use these companies and you

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Speaker 2: pay tens of millions of dollars, when the polling stinks

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Speaker 2: and you're being paid by the Democrats, what they tend

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Speaker 2: to do is they tend to use as propaganda, so

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Speaker 2: they say, gay after day, like the five point thirty

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Speaker 2: eight you're talking about, this is too close to call. Well,

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Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty I covered the American election when I

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Speaker 2: was in Boston for Australia, and it was too close

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Speaker 2: to call between Ronald Reagan, Reagan and Carter and the

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Speaker 2: next morning, I think that Reagan won forty eight fifty

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Speaker 2: states because it broke it the last minute. And what

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Speaker 2: people don't realize, even if it's too close to call,

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Speaker 2: it can break it the last minute. I think Trump

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Speaker 2: is going to win five of those seven elector those

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Speaker 2: battleground states. I think he's going to get three hundred

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Speaker 2: electoral votes. I think Kamala Harris, she gave it a

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Speaker 2: great try, but she didn't have enough time. And at

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Speaker 2: the end of the day, I think she'll kind of

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Speaker 2: regret the whole thing because she was asked to do

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Speaker 2: something it's impossible, that's been several months explained to people,

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Speaker 2: even though you haven't won a single primary, why you

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Speaker 2: should become the president of the United States. They gave

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Speaker 2: her an impossible job. You know, it was a big

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Speaker 2: deal to give it to a woman. But what they

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Speaker 2: didn't realize no guy was going to take it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it was a sucker bet. And so you know, at

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Speaker 2: the end of the day, you know, she's got to

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Speaker 2: wear this thing. She has to explain why she lost,

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Speaker 2: when in fact, Joe Biden took a little too long

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Speaker 2: to leave the office, and the Democratic Party took her

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Speaker 2: too too long to choose her, and she didn't have

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Speaker 2: a chance to present herself properly.

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Speaker 1: All right, great, getting your insights, Appreciate your time, Thank you, Okay,

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Speaker 1: see Elada Professor Joe Siracusa, Political Analysts, Professor of Global Futures,

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Speaker 1: Curtin University,