1 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to Ask Fear and Greed, where listeners write in 2 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: and ask questions of Sean Aylmer in the hope that 3 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,719 Speaker 1: he can answer them. Today's question comes from Lena, and 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: while she sent it in a few weeks ago, it's 5 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 1: very apt today he is the question, Sean, what happens 6 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: in Australia if Donald Trump wins the US election? 7 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,119 Speaker 2: Well, we're all run around screaming and don't go on 8 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 2: holidays over there anymore. 9 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: You know what happened just per chance? Yeah? 10 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean I suppose we all want to 11 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 2: know the answer to that one. Donald Trump is let's say, unpredictable, 12 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 2: but we'll have a crack. So I think military ties 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 2: Australia's most important military allian has since the Second World 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 2: War been the US. So I think that's not going 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 2: to in a sense, it's going to put pressure on 16 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: Australia's relationship with China because the US will be at 17 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 2: verbal war at least with China. Australia is very tied 18 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: to the US. Australia Chinese relations have improved. I think, 19 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 2: you know, diplomats from all three countries kind of know 20 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 2: how things work. But I don't think it's going to 21 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 2: help Australia Australia Chinese relations. Now in terms of the 22 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 2: India Pacific, Trump formalized the Quad Agreement, which was actually 23 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 2: an initiative from the administration ball before him, Barack Obama's administration. 24 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 2: That was India, Japan, Australia in the US. So clearly 25 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: Trump has some leaning towards that one. Aucus that's the 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 2: big one, tens of billions of dollars tied up in 27 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 2: that one, but that is over decades. In fact, we're 28 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 2: not supposed to get the first submarine for a long 29 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 2: long time. I mean, you can't say it's future is assured, 30 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 2: but it's sort of heading in the right direction, and 31 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 2: there could be four or five administrations before that actually finishes. 32 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 2: We do know that JD. Vance came out a few 33 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 2: months ago and said he's a fan of it. So 34 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 2: maybe the one I think that we should be worried 35 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 2: about are the tariff's issue. So tariff's are a big, 36 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 2: big feature of Trump's policies. He said there'll be ten 37 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 2: to twenty percent tariffs across the board, more on China, 38 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 2: and we do have an Australia US Free Trade agreement 39 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 2: where most movement of goods is tariff free or just 40 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: off the top of my head, I thinks about sixteen 41 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 2: billion dollars or maybe thirteen billion dollars in Australian exports 42 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 2: to the US. I you know, if they get hit 43 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 2: with tariffs, that's going to be a slow down for 44 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 2: those exporters, without a doubt. 45 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, the whole industries could be affected at our end. 46 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, you just don't know whether he's actually I mean, 47 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 2: Donald Trump says stuff, but you kind of have to 48 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 2: take it all with a grain of salt. 49 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, only some of it happens. 50 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So it's hard to certainly a trade 51 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 2: war with China wuld drag Australia down. I think we 52 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 2: mentioned that the inflation of reduction Acts an interesting one 53 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 2: and the whole climate change issue. Remember even that Donald 54 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 2: Trumper said that drill baby drills, great phrase. Not a believer, 55 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 2: really he would call out of the Parus Climate Agreement 56 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 2: the Biden administration. In the Biden administration introduced the Inflation 57 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 2: Reduction Act. That is a misnomer in its name because 58 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 2: really what it is, it's a climate change act trying 59 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 2: to get critical minerals out of the US and not China. 60 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 2: Trump has said that he will water it down, having 61 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 2: said that he doesn't want to rely on China either. 62 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 2: So again, who knows will Trump and the US support 63 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 2: the United Nations? Who knows? 64 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: Big question. 65 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 2: Equities will probably jump to begin with, but then they'll slow. 66 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 2: I mean if economic growth slows and equities will slow, 67 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 2: simple as that, interest rates will be higher for longer 68 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: if Trump spends as much money as he's talking about. 69 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: And you know that's and the tariffs right, because they're 70 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: inflationary in their nature in America. 71 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, and immigration, if you stop immigration, that's inflationary by nature. 72 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: Hmm. 73 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 2: They're one thing. I would say. Kevin Rudd must be 74 00:03:57,880 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: a bit uncomfortable at the moment, wouldn't you think. 75 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: This is a complex, a complex and very interesting, dynamic 76 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: set of circumstances. 77 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. He was very critical of Trump, and 78 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 2: then Trump kind of said, oh, yeah, I've met him once, 79 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 2: he's a weird little fellow or something like that. I 80 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 2: don't think that was quite And I think Kevin Rudd 81 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 2: has been scramming in a sense. He's a good scrambler. 82 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 2: I've got to give him that. 83 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,799 Speaker 1: Look, he's not bad, but he'll be under pressure. 84 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, totally, totally, Lena. I don't know that we've 85 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: answered your question or not. We're throwing a few ideas 86 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 2: out there. The thing about Donald Trump, he is so 87 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 2: unpredictable that we really I think broadly things will be okay, 88 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 2: like and I think it's not a disaster or anything 89 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 2: like that. I mean, socially it might be a disaster, 90 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: but economically it's not gonna be a disaster or anything. 91 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 2: So I hope we've sort of answered your questions. 92 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,119 Speaker 1: I agree, and I think it's going to be very unpredictable, 93 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 1: but broadly it's going to be okay. We're just not 94 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 1: quite sure of industry by industry how it might play out. 95 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: And it'll be something of a spectator sport to watch 96 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: the decision making as it happens. 97 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 2: Yep, yep, for sure. 98 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: Thank you, Sean. It was a terrific answer, and a 99 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: very complex one. 100 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 2: Thank you, Adam. 101 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: You've been listening to ask fear and greed. Thank you, 102 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: Sean Almer. I'm Adam Lange. Have a great day.