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Speaker 1: Some of Australia's bluest blue chip companies, including Telstra, Woodside

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Speaker 1: and Woolworths, are among the worst performing stocks on the ASX.

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Speaker 1: The fight over energy policy heats up, and business class

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Speaker 1: airfares are getting cheaper. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday, the eleventh of June twenty twenty four. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Some of Australia's bluest of

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Speaker 1: blue chip companies have been among the worst performers on

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Speaker 1: the ASX over the past year, with household names like

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Speaker 1: Telstra and Woollies among the poorest yielding stocks on the moors.

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Speaker 2: Last week we talked about the banks leading the way.

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Speaker 2: Today it's about the companies who are dragging the s

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Speaker 2: and p ASX two hundred down. Telstra, with its one

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Speaker 2: point three million shareholders, leads that list, with the share

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Speaker 2: price off eighteen percent over the past year. Compare that

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Speaker 2: to the border of two one hundred, which is up

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Speaker 2: ten percent over the same time period, and you see

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Speaker 2: how poorly the telco has done broadly. Telstra struggling to

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Speaker 2: compete in some areas of its business. Its enterprise division

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Speaker 2: is an example, and it isn't seen as a tech

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Speaker 2: leader in things like artificial intelligence. Woolies is off fourteen

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Speaker 2: percent this year as it rides the vagaries of both

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Speaker 2: the interest rate and political cycles. The country's largest supermarket

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Speaker 2: business has also been outperformed in some areas by major

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Speaker 2: rival Coal's Cole's share has actually down four percent, so

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Speaker 2: it has definitely outperformed Woolies. Energy gour Woodside has been

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Speaker 2: sold off too, down twenty two percent over the year.

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Speaker 2: Energy prices, among other things, has pretty much driven that performance.

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Speaker 2: Another big company to severely underperform is Toll Road Group Transurban,

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Speaker 2: which has lost more than ten percent over the past year.

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Speaker 2: It's been hit by expectations of rural interest rates and

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Speaker 2: management change. The four are all top twenty stocks, and

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Speaker 2: investors have really done poorly.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I'm kind of looking for the trends and things here.

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Speaker 1: Those four companies are from very different parts of the economy.

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Speaker 1: What does this actually then suggest for investors.

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Speaker 2: It's a bit of a cliche in investing, but it's

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Speaker 2: a stock pickers market. A caveat first. Any investor should

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Speaker 2: be making these decisions based on their individual circumstances, we

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Speaker 2: always recommend they get professional help. We are not an

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Speaker 2: investment podcast at the moment. The market is one where

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Speaker 2: not all companies in a sector, for instance, do well

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Speaker 2: or do pooring and the banks are a bit of

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Speaker 2: an anathema to that. But generally speaking, it's about knowing

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Speaker 2: the individual companies that's more important than just expecting a

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Speaker 2: sector to do well or not do well. So take

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Speaker 2: this next list of companies. All have done really poorly.

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Speaker 2: They're in the bottom twenty five percent of the ASEX

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Speaker 2: of the past year, so Fletcher Building, Building, IDP Education

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Speaker 2: so only healthcare, nine entertainment medium in Devor Group, the

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Speaker 2: retailer Domina's Pizza. They're all from different parts of the economy.

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Speaker 2: The point to this is that when you're investing answer

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Speaker 2: stock pickers market, it can just be much more difficult.

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Speaker 2: If you don't pick the right stock, you can easily

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Speaker 2: get badly burnt.

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Speaker 1: If it wasn't for Endeavor Group, there sean that was

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Speaker 1: the perfect list of companies that tell you exactly what

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Speaker 1: they do with their name, wasn't it you're thinking about

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Speaker 1: that way, building IRDPA, education, Sonic healthcare, obviously nine Entertainment,

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Speaker 1: Domino's Pizza. Well, that one's pretty obvious. And then in

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Speaker 1: deva group just had to ruin everything, didn't it? Alas

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Speaker 1: alas and indeed, now what can we expect when the

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Speaker 1: share market opens today after it's now been a three

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Speaker 1: day break.

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Speaker 2: It probably won't be positive, with futures suggesting the market

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Speaker 2: will start the day down about half a percent. That

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Speaker 2: follows last week's two percent jump on the AX and

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Speaker 2: then fall on Wall Street over the weekend as it

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Speaker 2: has been all year. It is about interest rate expectations.

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Speaker 2: When will the reserve banks start cutting rates or is

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Speaker 2: there another rate hike in the offing. Investors don't think

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Speaker 2: there'll be a high, and they've priced in a thirty

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Speaker 2: percent chance of a rate cut in twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: and a one hundred percent chance of a rate cut

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Speaker 2: over the next twelve months. The big economic data out

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Speaker 2: this week in Australia at least, is labor force information

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Speaker 2: for May that comes out in two day's time.

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Speaker 1: And what about international markets, Well.

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Speaker 2: It's a big week last week with the European Central

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Speaker 2: Bank and Bank of Canada cutting their respective official interest rates.

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Speaker 2: The US FED meets this week, and it is not

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Speaker 2: likely to move by what it says will be very

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Speaker 2: closely monitored. Of course, rates in the world's biggest economy

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Speaker 2: are still at twenty three year highs. Most movement in

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Speaker 2: commodity markets will be muted ahead of the US interstrate decision.

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Speaker 2: Brencrude is trading just under eighty US dollars a barrel,

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Speaker 2: goals just under twenty three hundred US dollars announced the

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Speaker 2: IZI dollars buying just under sixty six usent so bitcoin

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Speaker 2: is worth about sixty nine and a half thousand US

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Speaker 2: dollars a unit.

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Speaker 1: Sean perfect timing mentioning bitcoin there, almost as though we

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Speaker 1: had planned it, because I need to mention what our

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Speaker 1: interview is today. After the show, you're speaking with John o'lachlan,

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Speaker 1: who is the managing director for Asia Pacific at Coinbase.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we talk about what's happening in the crypto market.

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Speaker 2: So bit coin in particular Ethereum also have done really

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Speaker 2: well in recent months, and so we ask him why

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Speaker 2: that's the case, and then we get onto some of

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Speaker 2: the meme coins and things like that. We talk from

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Speaker 2: about those as well, but it's just very interesting from

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Speaker 2: John his take on what is happening among the cryptocurrencies

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Speaker 2: at the moment.

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Speaker 1: He knows this space so well. It's really become our

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Speaker 1: kind of crypto correspondent, hasn't he He has It is

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Speaker 1: coming up after the show, well worth a listen. And

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Speaker 1: also quick mention of the Fear and Greed newsletter Sean

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Speaker 1: which comes out tomorrow. There is still time, of course,

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Speaker 1: to head along to Fearangreed dot com dot au, pop

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Speaker 1: your email addressing and you will get the newsletter when

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Speaker 1: it comes out about mid morning tomorrow. Is there any

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Speaker 1: kind of hints as to what you will be unleashing

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Speaker 1: on tomorrow?

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Speaker 2: Plenty of really interesting stuff.

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Speaker 1: That is the kind of teaser that you give when

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Speaker 1: you have no idea at this point.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, that's right, when you haven't set down to write. Yep,

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Speaker 2: that's exactly right.

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Speaker 1: But I can assure you it will be a cracker.

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Speaker 1: Now we'll be back in a moment with the rest

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Speaker 1: of the day's business news, Shawn. The fight over energy

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Speaker 1: policy is heating up, and I make no apologies whatsoever

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Speaker 1: for that part. I think it is great. With Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Anthony Abernezi yesterday saying Opposition leader Peter Dutton is

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Speaker 1: worse than Scott Morrison on climate change, after the Coalition

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Speaker 1: restated its refusal to back Labour's energy policy.

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Speaker 2: Mister Alberanezi said mister Dutton is walking away from climate

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Speaker 2: action and when Labour announced its policy it had the

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Speaker 2: support of interest groups from across the political spectrum. He

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Speaker 2: said the Opposition leader is afraid of the future. For

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Speaker 2: their part, the coalitions say they are committed to the

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Speaker 2: Paris Agreement now that demands global temperature rises be kept

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Speaker 2: blow two degrees celsius. This centery, it supports the Paris Agreement,

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Speaker 2: but the Opposition doesn't like the way the government is

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Speaker 2: going about achieving theirs goals. The government's legislator targets are

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Speaker 2: forty three percent reduction of carbon emissions below two thousand

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Speaker 2: and five levels by twenty thirty and net zero greenhouse

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Speaker 2: gas emissions by twenty fifties. Houses Parliament aren't sitting out

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Speaker 2: of the next fortnight and we'll be back on twenty

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Speaker 2: four June. Given the election needs to be held within

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Speaker 2: the next twelve months or so, we can expect campaigning

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Speaker 2: to begin if it ever stopped, and obviously energy policy

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Speaker 2: is going to be part of that and Sewan.

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Speaker 1: There's also talk about Chinese Premier League Chung visiting Australia,

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Speaker 1: possibly as soon as next week.

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Speaker 2: Miss Albanezi wasn't confirming the trip yesterday, though the trip

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Speaker 2: is definitely happening. Also in politics, all sides have slammed

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Speaker 2: in active vandalism on the US's Sydney Consulate, where a

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Speaker 2: man with what appeared to be a small sledgehammer smashed

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Speaker 2: the front windows. There's also congratulations for two former state premiers,

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Speaker 2: Victoria's Daniel Andrews and Westner's shows Mart McGowan after both

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Speaker 2: received King's honors now Sean.

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Speaker 1: It was a relatively slow weekend for auction clearance rates,

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Speaker 1: which wasn't really a surprise, was it, given that most

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Speaker 1: of the country was enjoying the King's Birthday long weekend.

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Speaker 2: The preliminary clearance rate felled a sixty seven point three

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Speaker 2: percent across combined to capital cities. Now that's the lowest

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Speaker 2: clearance rate so far this year, first time it's dipped

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Speaker 2: below seventy percent in twenty twenty four. It was also

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Speaker 2: relatively low auction volumes, just nine hundred and one across

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Speaker 2: the country. It'sposed not a surprise given outside Western Australia

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Speaker 2: and Queensland, the rest of the country if you'd have

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Speaker 2: that extra day off. Running through the results, Sydney had

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Speaker 2: a preliminary clearance right at seventy point one percent, the

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Speaker 2: lowes so far this year for that city. Melmann came

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Speaker 2: in at sixty three point two percent. Given the average

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Speaker 2: revision rate of minus seven point three percentage points between

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Speaker 2: the periminarty clearance rate and the final clearance rate, well

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Speaker 2: there's a good chance that Melbourne's final rate will actually

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Speaker 2: come in under sixty percent for the first time since

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Speaker 2: late last year. Adelaide continues to be the standout very

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Speaker 2: high clearance rates eighty five percent over the past week.

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Speaker 2: Brisbane's early clearance rate was sixty seven percent and the

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Speaker 2: ACT was fifty two point four percent. According to core Logic,

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Speaker 2: the number of auctions is set to bounce back this week,

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Speaker 2: with around twenty three hundred homes currently scheduled to go

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Speaker 2: under the hammer.

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Speaker 1: I love how you started out calling a preliminary clearance rate,

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Speaker 1: and after struggling with that a couple of times, you

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Speaker 1: just reverted calling it the early clearance rate.

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Speaker 2: That's right, that's exactly right, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's called recognizing your limitations, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Michael, Yes, that's it, And it's nice that you

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Speaker 2: pointed that out too.

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Speaker 1: I have no doubt at all that you would do

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Speaker 1: the same for me.

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Speaker 2: Maybe.

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Speaker 1: Oh come on now, Sean. This is a bit of

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Speaker 1: good news, right. Business class airfares are getting cheaper as

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Speaker 1: airlines ramp up international routes and the leisure boom settles down.

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Speaker 2: FCM Consulting, which is part of Flight Center, says the

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Speaker 2: cost of flying business is twelve percent more expensive this

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Speaker 2: year than five years ago pre COVID, but the gap

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Speaker 2: is narrowing compared to twelve months ago. Twelve months ago

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Speaker 2: was eighteen percent, this year's twelve percent. Things are getting better.

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Speaker 2: Economy prices are more stable, about eleven percent above pre

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Speaker 2: COVID levels. The Global Quarterly Trend Report says it isn't

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Speaker 2: all about COVID. The cost of aviation fuel and inflation

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Speaker 2: has also pushed up prices, but with Quantius, Emirates, and

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Speaker 2: American airlines all due to add capacity in coming months,

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Speaker 2: that all add competitive ten to the market and hopefully

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Speaker 2: these airline prices will keep falling in the same direction

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Speaker 2: will keep falling going the right direction for we passengers.

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Speaker 1: So when we say though the business class airfairs are

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Speaker 1: getting cheaper, they're still more expensive than they used to be.

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Speaker 1: They're just cheaper than they were this time last year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's exactly right. But the trend is your friend.

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Speaker 2: To Michael, I've told you that many times, and you

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Speaker 2: know with aviation fuel price that's so expensive at the moment,

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Speaker 2: I reckon, we'll get them back down in the next

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Speaker 2: twelve months.

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Speaker 1: I like your optimism, Sean. Now, Australians hold China in

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Speaker 1: low regard, despite two years of better relations under the

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Speaker 1: Albanese government, while respect for US President Joe Biden is waning.

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Speaker 1: According to the Lowey Institute's annual poll.

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Speaker 2: Australians value the US alliance, but they're worried about mister

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Speaker 2: Biden's age and capacity to govern. Australians are also critical

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Speaker 2: of his approach over the Guards that conflict. If Australians

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Speaker 2: had evaded November's presidential election, sixty eight percent would support

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Speaker 2: mister Biden, just twenty nine percent Donald Trump. When it

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Speaker 2: comes to China, just seventeen percent of people trust by

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Speaker 2: Jing to act responsibly in the world, which is better

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Speaker 2: than the twelve percent back in twenty twenty two, still

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Speaker 2: very low. Sixty years ago, the proportion of people who

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Speaker 2: trusted China was fifty two percent. According to this Lower

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Speaker 2: Institute annual poll, only twelve percent have confidence that President

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Speaker 2: Jijing Ping will do the right thing. He's only a

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Speaker 2: head of Russias Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Um.

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Speaker 2: The poll also says that while the government and opposition

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Speaker 2: are divided over how to lower carbon emissions, more than

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Speaker 2: sixty percent of vote to support both nuclear power and

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Speaker 2: renewable energy to tackle climate change.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning to international news now, and French President

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Speaker 1: Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election for the country

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Speaker 1: after his centrist alliance was soundly beaten by Marine Lapin's

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Speaker 1: far right movement in the European parliamentary vote.

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Speaker 2: The European voting generally reflects what's happening in individual countries

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Speaker 2: rather than the Eurozone, and Macrons that move yesterday following

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Speaker 2: that European vote is, to say the least, very high risk.

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Speaker 2: He has already lost his parliamentary majority in France after

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Speaker 2: winning a second term as president two years ago. If

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Speaker 2: the vote at the end of this month. It's only

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Speaker 2: a three or four week election cycle, reflects what happened

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Speaker 2: in the European elections over the past few days. Macron

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Speaker 2: would be forced to appoint a prime minister from another party,

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Speaker 2: such as a center right candidate, in an arrangement known

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Speaker 2: as a cohabitation. In such a scenario, Macron would be

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Speaker 2: left with little power over domestic affairs. He still has

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Speaker 2: three years to run as president, so high risk decision

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Speaker 2: by Emmanuel Macron, but he's called that staff. Election starts

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Speaker 2: on the thirtieth of June.

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Speaker 1: And staying on the same story, Sean far right parties,

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Speaker 1: which tend to be less supportive of immigration and trade,

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Speaker 1: did well in the EU elections.

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Speaker 2: More generally, yes, so France was the greatest shock, but

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Speaker 2: they also the far right groups also made gains in Germany,

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Speaker 2: Italy and the Netherlands. It looks like far right parties

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Speaker 2: will hold about twenty five percent of the seats when

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Speaker 2: the European Parliament next sits, up from around twenty percent.

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Speaker 2: Those centrist parties will still maintain control.

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Speaker 1: Centrist politician Benny Gantz has resigned from Israel's emergency government

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Speaker 1: and called for early elections, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah

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Speaker 1: Who of mishandling Israel's war in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Gantz, a former general who joined netanya Who's coalition in

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Speaker 2: the aftermath of the Jimas October seven attack on Israel,

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Speaker 2: said he decided to leave the government because the Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister was preventing Israel from moving forward to a true victory.

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Speaker 2: Gantz also back to US led push to free the

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Speaker 2: roughly one hundred and twenty Israeli hostages still held in

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Speaker 2: Gaza for a deal with Hamas. Benjamin Netanya who will

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Speaker 2: still hold a majority in Parliament after Gans's departure, but

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Speaker 2: it removes a more moderate voice in Israeli politics. His

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Speaker 2: departure follows months of tensions within the coalition with far

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Speaker 2: right and ultra religious groups over the course of the war,

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Speaker 2: with Israel still a long way from its goal of

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Speaker 2: destroying Hamas and securing the release of those hostages still

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Speaker 2: held with the militant group.

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Speaker 1: One sean, I don't know what to make of this

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Speaker 1: next story. I mean, it seems like a good idea,

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Speaker 1: but it just seems like it's high risk. From next month,

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Speaker 1: Austria will allow postal workers to enter people's homes to

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Speaker 1: deliver parcels to the general public because it's grappling with

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Speaker 1: the surge in home deliveries.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so the service is free, but a homeowner will

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Speaker 2: have to spend two hundred and eighty nine euros for

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Speaker 2: a smartlocked device that the delivery using a mobile phone

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Speaker 2: will be able to unlock the door. There's about forty

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Speaker 2: thousand of them that's already been sold. The postal staffer

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Speaker 2: then supposed to place the package on a designated door

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Speaker 2: mat inside the house and then lock it up upon leaving.

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Speaker 2: It's been piloted over the past through years or so.

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Speaker 2: The National Postal Service said there's been no reports of

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Speaker 2: security breaches in that time. First time it's been done

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Speaker 2: in Europe. Both Amazon and Walmart have trialed what they

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Speaker 2: call limited in garage delivery service in the US, but

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Speaker 2: this is the first time that's actually going to someone's

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Speaker 2: house and putting a parcel there. Interesting. I mean, Austrians

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Speaker 2: are probably very honest people, so maybe it'll work there.

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Speaker 2: But how on.

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Speaker 1: Earth do you know that? I just you just generalized

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Speaker 1: about the entire country that Austrians are honest people.

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Speaker 2: Michael, if you're about to say that Austrians are dishonest people.

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Speaker 2: You go right ahead and say that, but I won't

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Speaker 2: be supporting you in that.

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Speaker 1: I wasn't going to say that at all. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to say that they probably have a fairly standard mix

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Speaker 1: of honest and dishonest people, and I would be concerned

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Speaker 1: that maybe one of those dishonest people could be working

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Speaker 1: within the postal service, and I for one would not

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Speaker 1: be comfortable with the posty coming inside to deliver the parcel.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, if you did it in Australia,

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Speaker 1: I suspect you would still just end up with the

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Speaker 1: sorry we missed you slip shoved in the front of

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Speaker 1: the door.

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Speaker 2: No, no, it would be on the special doormat. Sorry

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Speaker 2: miss Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 1: The parcel isn't left there, it's just the slip, all right, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Up next is the Fear and Gray Daily Interview. You

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Speaker 1: are speaking today with John o'lachlan, Managing Director Asia Pacific

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Speaker 1: at Coinbase.

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Speaker 2: Yes, all about what's happening in the crypto world, particularly Bitcoin,

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Speaker 2: ethereum and then some of those meme coins as well.

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Speaker 1: Great chat, Yeah, it certainly is. It is up next

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also

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Speaker 1: where you can sign up for that Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: weekly newsletter out every Wednesday. So get in today and

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Speaker 1: do it before we forget.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the eleventh of June twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.